Bets of Bitcoin - Bitcoin betting on real world events

[420]

I just won 4.42BTC in a bet I made months ago! Haha.

congratulations

[1714116460]

1714116460

[1714116460]

1714116460

[1714116460]

1714116460

[bacon strips]

These statements were proved false yesterday Aug 11th.  It is still open and I think people bet false on it yesterday after the VP announcement.  

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=264
http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=291

[Charlie Prime]

We already have moonco.in and their doing a very good job!

Or not.   

[Stephen Gornick]

These statements were proved false yesterday Aug 11th.

Incidentally, normally a bet will be reviewed at the event date.  When an event outcome occurs before the event date, notification can be sent via e-mail, as described here:

For not making the thread cluttered you can shoot a quick email to us at [admin at betsofbitco.in] for your notifications.

As far as bets made once the event outcome was known:

It is still open and I think people bet false on it yesterday after the VP announcement.

Any bets made on those after Aug 10th (last day before the event's outcome was determined) get canceled.  This is described in a previous post:

Post hoc bets are cancelled.

And it also referenced in the Help page:

"Q.) What happens after I bet?"
"A.) [...] If the statement turns out to be true or false before the deadline, bet deadline is changed to the end of previous day and bets are closed."

 - http://betsofbitco.in/help


Those two you linked to were:

Marco Rubio will be selected as Vice Presidential running mate for the GOP presidential nominee.
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=264  

Marco Rubio will be the GOP nominee for Vice President
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=291  

Here's a another open one:
GOP convention will select Ron Paul as vice presidential candidate
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=463


Here's one that is "waiting" (closed to new bets) and can be ended as well:
Mitt Romney Will Choose A Woman As His Running Mate
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=481

[ShireSilver]

Those two you linked to were:

Marco Rubio will be selected as Vice Presidential running mate for the GOP presidential nominee.
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=264  

Marco Rubio will be the GOP nominee for Vice President
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=291  

Here's a another open one:
GOP convention will select Ron Paul as vice presidential candidate
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=463


Here's one that is "waiting" (closed to new bets) and can be ended as well:
Mitt Romney Will Choose A Woman As His Running Mate
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=481

IMHO, all these should probably be in the waiting state now, but none of them can actually be confirmed until the actual convention. What would happen if Paul Ryan were to get hit by a bus? Its not likely that the outcome will change, but it is still possible.

[elux]

A Higgs Boson particle will be observed before the end of 2012 should be decided.

Now one Higgs-hunting team at the Large Hadron Collider report a "5.9 sigma" levels of certainty it exists.
That equates to a one-in-550 million chance if the Higgs did not exist, the team would see these same results.
The formal threshold for claiming the discovery of a particle is a 5-sigma level - equivalent to a one-in-3.5 million chance.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-19076355
http://www.nature.com/nphys/journal/v8/n8/full/nphys2404.html
http://blogs.nature.com/news/2012/08/higgs-discovery-papers-unveiled.html

http://arxiv.org/abs/1207.7214

[bacon strips]

These statements were proved false yesterday Aug 11th.

Incidentally, normally a bet will be reviewed at the event date.  When an event outcome occurs before the event date, notification can be sent via e-mail, as described here:

For not making the thread cluttered you can shoot a quick email to us at [admin at betsofbitco.in] for your notifications.

@Stephen Gornick: I did read the FAQ but thanks for the info.  I thought it was just easier to post here, but I sent them an e-mail as you suggested.  

[Frankie]

IMHO, all these should probably be in the waiting state now, but none of them can actually be confirmed until the actual convention. What would happen if Paul Ryan were to get hit by a bus? Its not likely that the outcome will change, but it is still possible.

This is true; there's a difference between who Mitt Romney picks and who is actually nominated. Although it seems unlikely, Mitt Romney's choice may not be nominated.

[SpontaneousDisorder]

This assertion is true if Bitcoin Savings and Trust is unwilling or unable to pay out requested deposits on or before December 31st, 2012 according to the opinion of Bitcointalk.org members on the Bitcoin Savings and Trust Forum Thread.

Since it seems he may be having difficulty repaying is it appropriate to keep the bet open still?

Relevant:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101339.0

[Stephen Gornick]

This assertion is true if Bitcoin Savings and Trust is unwilling or unable to pay out requested deposits on or before December 31st, 2012 according to the opinion of Bitcointalk.org members on the Bitcoin Savings and Trust Forum Thread.

Since it seems he may be having difficulty repaying is it appropriate to keep the bet open still?

Relevant:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101339.0

The "opinion of the community" that I've seen elsewhere considers "default" event to mean that a certain period of time, perhaps two weeks, has passed from the time the withdrawals are requested.  If *all* payouts do actually occur on Monday or so, that probably wouldn't be considered a default for someone whose withdrawal requests from today are not honored.

[elux]

MTGOX BTC will touch $19.99 before $9.99 should be closed.

Outcome: False.

[Yuhfhrh]

Your site seems to be down, are you aware?

Edit: It's back up now. By the way http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=586 turned out to be true and I sent an email to the admin address earlier.

[Jouke]

433 \o/

[ShireSilver]

I guess I can wait until tomorrow for the payout on http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=240

[jtimon]

Sorry for the spoiler, but this bet is done:

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=577

Wins nothing, but congratulations to the predictor.

[kiba]

Did the service get updated lately? It seems stagnant.

[Vandroiy]

Thanks for the neat service.

As hinted in my earlier sig, I had placed bets on BS&T default. Got some nice customer service repeating the default definition, had a chat about betting in general, won a little over 2 weeks after payments stopped, and was able to withdraw right away. Some bets that came in late were reverted, which is the right thing to do, since there was additional information at the time.

Overall, the site made a good impression to me. I'll use it again as soon as there's something I want to bet about.

[Stephen Gornick]

Overall, the site made a good impression to me. I'll use it again as soon as there's something I want to bet about.

There are some topics that I wouldn't normally follow but with a minimum bet of only 0.1 BTC (worth a little over $1) it is easy to put some money on it and then get the e-mail alert on the outcome when the bet ends.

For some bets the odds are just not worth it (e.g., the extra-terrestrials bet, you'll lose money no matter if your bet wins or loses with the current odds on it), [edit: I'm an idiot, winning bets always split 90% of the losing bets, no more no less.]. but others are set up to run right through to the event date, and thus it becomes almost a guaranteed win, just with a really low payout.

This whole predictions market captures my interest in a unique way!

[Stephen Gornick]

There was a new bet listing but it is making some assumptions that leaves it unclear.


Statement: Mitt Romney's tax returns will be released before the election day.
Description: Romney's tax returns will be released before election day, November 6th, 2012, regardless of how or why they were released.

 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=636

His 2010 returns were released earlier this year:

 - http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/documents/romney-2010-tax-return.html

His 2011 returns are the subject of interest.  Neither the bet statement nor the description makes this clear.

[coinjedi]

Thanks for the neat service.

As hinted in my earlier sig, I had placed bets on BS&T default. Got some nice customer service repeating the default definition, had a chat about betting in general, won a little over 2 weeks after payments stopped, and was able to withdraw right away. Some bets that came in late were reverted, which is the right thing to do, since there was additional information at the time.

Overall, the site made a good impression to me. I'll use it again as soon as there's something I want to bet about.

Great to hear from happy users. That makes our day here.