Bets of Bitcoin - Bitcoin betting on real world events

[coinjedi]

I hate to be a wet blanket on some light-hearted bet statements, but i don't think this bet statement is suitable for BetsOfBitco.in
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=871

Technically, it should be disallowed because the outcome is easily manipulated.   

But even if it wasn't, the statement's scope is much too narrow in focus to be of interest to anyone except the two people in on the joke.

Well, I rejected it once but the submitter took effort to write it again and made it as precise as possible. Still not my favorite bet, but we try to accommodate everyone as long as it is precise enough. If you don't like it either, just ignore. The site is mostly for fun, don't over think.

[FreeMoney]

I hate to be a wet blanket on some light-hearted bet statements, but i don't think this bet statement is suitable for BetsOfBitco.in
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=871

Technically, it should be disallowed because the outcome is easily manipulated.   

But even if it wasn't, the statement's scope is much too narrow in focus to be of interest to anyone except the two people in on the joke.

I won't suggest what BoB should do, but in general I think manipulable statements can be great. This one essentially pays girls to come out to play. And, this or a similar statement could be used to indicate that it won't (or will) be a sausage fest.

[BIGMERVE]

I found the result for this bet which is waiting decision: http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=402

This article states that BLOPS2 beat MW3 sales record: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/9683341/Call-of-duty-Black-Ops-II-sales-hit-500-million-in-first-24-hours.html

[Stephen Gornick]

With yesterday's lawsuit by the CFTC against Intrade, it is possible this site will receive communications from the CFTC, including possibly the demand that no U.S. subscribers be allowed to place wagers.  This may also involve the domain being taken over, as India ( .in TLD) would likely comply with a request (or initiate a takeover on their own once being notified.)

How will Bets Of Bitcoin respond should this happen?

Let's say the site were to resurface with a .bit (namecoin) domain, or as a Tor hidden service, or just some other domain  -- how could a player know to trust that it truly is coinjedi that is operating at the new domain?

One way of ensuring the authenticity of communications would be for coinjedi to provide here a public key so that at some later time if necessary, a signed message (GPG) on the site would then suffice as a method to verify that coinjedi is in control of the site at a new location.  But I've never seen a public key for coinjedi.

[cunicula]

With yesterday's lawsuit by the CFTC against Intrade, it is possible this site will receive communications from the CFTC, including possibly the demand that no U.S. subscribers be allowed to place wagers.  This may also involve the domain being taken over, as India ( .in TLD) would likely comply with a request (or initiate a takeover on their own once being notified.)

How will Bets Of Bitcoin respond should this happen.

Let's say the site were to resurface with a .bit (namecoin) domain, or as a Tor hidden service, or just some other domain  -- how could a player know to trust that it truly is coinjedi that is operating at the new domain?

One way of ensuring the authenticity of communications would be for coinjedi to provide here a public key so that at some later time if necessary, a signed message (GPG) on the site would then suffice as a method to verify that coinjedi is in control of the site at a new location.  But I've never seen a public key for coinjedi.

What are you talking about? A site like this is not going to go rogue on tor. Hardly any money in it at all right now. Why break the law?

Jedi will hopefully try to return all money to depositors and close up shop.

Alternatively, he will run off with the money (including my own). Those are the two plausible options.

[giszmo]

With yesterday's lawsuit by the CFTC against Intrade, it is possible this site will receive communications from the CFTC, including possibly the demand that no U.S. subscribers be allowed to place wagers.  This may also involve the domain being taken over, as India ( .in TLD) would likely comply with a request (or initiate a takeover on their own once being notified.)

How will Bets Of Bitcoin respond should this happen.

Let's say the site were to resurface with a .bit (namecoin) domain, or as a Tor hidden service, or just some other domain  -- how could a player know to trust that it truly is coinjedi that is operating at the new domain?

One way of ensuring the authenticity of communications would be for coinjedi to provide here a public key so that at some later time if necessary, a signed message (GPG) on the site would then suffice as a method to verify that coinjedi is in control of the site at a new location.  But I've never seen a public key for coinjedi.

What are you talking about? A site like this is not going to go rogue on tor. Hardly any money in it at all right now. Why break the law?

Jedi will hopefully try to return all money to depositors and close up shop.

Alternatively, he will run off with the money (including my own). Those are the two plausible options.

What are YOU talking about? betsofbitcoin is a great service and has to survive somehow. If it reappears somewhere suddenly asking you to provide all kind of identification I want to know who's in control. Also thousands of bitcoins is not much in terms of a company's holdings but in terms of dozens of customers it is a lot to each of these.
On the other hand I don't see how a signed message would help. Maybe he's forced to cooperate in whatever bullshit.
The Bitcoin ecosystem is like a served dinner with the kids still playing with their dollar bills. The betsofbitcoin-soup is getting cold. Mummy will heat it up but if the kids eat out tonight it's not worth the hassle.

[mrb]

coinjedi, could you edit the title (not description) of a bet I submitted, in order to emphasize what the bet covers?

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=665
"Butterfly Labs ASIC will achieve 350 Mhash/Joule" should be changed to "Butterfly Labs ASIC is real and will achieve 350+ Mhash/Joule"

[Mr. Coinman]

Coinjedi, I emailed you a little while back requesting a change from my mistakenly written "August 1st" to "April 1st" in the description of my statement. You misinterpreted what I meant and edited the title from "April 1st" to "August 1st". As you can see, the event date is April 1st, 2013.

Can you please make the following changes to the statement?:

Title:

"The r/Bitcoin subreddit will have at least 15k subscribers by April 1st, 2013"

Description:

"This statement is true if the r/Bitcoin community on Reddit.com reaches 15,000 subscribers before April 1st, 2013"

[elux]

FACEBOOK will trade at < 25$/Share at the end of November 2012

Verdict: False! Settle the bet. 

[Daily Anarchist]

I'm considering placing a large bet on an event that won't be settled for several years. My biggest concern is that the website will still be around in several years. Can you please address these two concerns?

#1 Do you plan on operating this site several years from now?

#2 What contingency plans do you have if the state comes down on you? I would feel more confident knowing there is a Tor site already up and verified by you as a backup just in case the clear net site gets closed down. Or, if not that, at least a signed signature so that if you later have to set up a Tor or i2p site that you can verify it is yours by your signed signature.

Once I feel confident that your site will still be up in several years I'll place my bet. Thanks!

[giszmo]

I'm considering placing a large bet on an event that won't be settled for several years. My biggest concern is that the website will still be around in several years. Can you please address these two concerns?

#1 Do you plan on operating this site several years from now?

#2 What contingency plans do you have if the state comes down on you? I would feel more confident knowing there is a Tor site already up and verified by you as a backup just in case the clear net site gets closed down. Or, if not that, at least a signed signature so that if you later have to set up a Tor or i2p site that you can verify it is yours by your signed signature.

Once I feel confident that your site will still be up in several years I'll place my bet. Thanks!

lol I was considering placing a bet on BoB being offline within a month. Actually your concerns are why I never bet on any event longer than 30 days away. I hope this will change though.

[Stephen Gornick]

I hadn't seen Jon Matonis' article from Forbes in this thread:

Prediction Market 'Bets Of Bitcoin' Available To U.S. Customers

Instead of seeking regulatory approval, Bets of Bitcoin focuses on financial privacy and anonymity so that it’s irrelevant where the customers are geographically located. Anyone can create a bet statement and new bets are vetted by moderators to eliminate unwanted bets or bets whose outcome can’t be easily determined or is easily manipulated.

- http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2012/12/06/prediction-market-bets-of-bitcoin-available-to-u-s-customers/

Also, Bets of Bitcoin was just references in an article by Verge's Adrianne Jeffreis on Intrade:

Intrade shutdown disrupts betting market on elections, air strikes, and celebrity arrests

Hardcore Intrade addicts can also turn to the tiny prediction market Bets of Bitcoin, where some believe converting your dollars to the internet currency Bitcoin circumvents laws around commodity options because the site isn't using a government-recognized currency.

- http://www.theverge.com/2012/12/11/3753082/intrade-shutdown-cftc-us-december-2012

[giszmo]

the show must go on. hope there is a plan B for when BoB has to pull the plug.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Hi

Would it be a good idea to be able to post questions/remarks on specific statements?

For example I am looking at
" Existence of extraterrestrials to be officially confirmed by US government by the end of 2012", and I want to make sure we are talking about "Grey" alien-type stuff here, consciously visiting earth, not some sort of bacteria reaching earth from mars on an asteroid or whatever.  Seems like this is the intention, but I would not want to get screwed on technicalities.

Also, I am quite sure there is no way to lose money if your bet is correct, but a confirmation of this would ease my mind, I am not used to betting online .

[coinjedi]

Hi

Would it be a good idea to be able to post questions/remarks on specific statements?

For example I am looking at
" Existence of extraterrestrials to be officially confirmed by US government by the end of 2012", and I want to make sure we are talking about "Grey" alien-type stuff here, consciously visiting earth, not some sort of bacteria reaching earth from mars on an asteroid or whatever.  Seems like this is the intention, but I would not want to get screwed on technicalities.

Also, I am quite sure there is no way to lose money if your bet is correct, but a confirmation of this would ease my mind, I am not used to betting online .

You can always email or PM us if you need any clarification.

Description of the item says it requires ETs to "visit" Earth. Since "visiting" is a conscious act, such technicalities would not count.

Also there is no way to get less than what you put if you are on the right side. We only get a commission from the losing side, not the total bets.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Hi

Would it be a good idea to be able to post questions/remarks on specific statements?

For example I am looking at
" Existence of extraterrestrials to be officially confirmed by US government by the end of 2012", and I want to make sure we are talking about "Grey" alien-type stuff here, consciously visiting earth, not some sort of bacteria reaching earth from mars on an asteroid or whatever.  Seems like this is the intention, but I would not want to get screwed on technicalities.

Also, I am quite sure there is no way to lose money if your bet is correct, but a confirmation of this would ease my mind, I am not used to betting online .

You can always email or PM us if you need any clarification.

Description of the item says it requires ETs to "visit" Earth. Since "visiting" is a conscious act, such technicalities would not count.

Also there is no way to get less than what you put if you are on the right side. We only get a commission from the losing side, not the total bets.

ok, thanks for the confirmation !

[maqifrnswa]

I have an idea to possibly improve bets of bitcoin - it's not something that needs to change with the platform, just the way submitters control their own submissions.

Problem:
Some propositions end up with very small or zero bets on either side. For example, nearly every sports bet the is expiring in the next week have < 0.5 BTC (some have only 0.1 BTC total bet). That, effectively, kills any incentive for someone to place a bet in a contest that is expected to be close. It also kills the return for the submitter and the return for the website.

Solution:
The submitter should place funds on the proposition in proportion to what they think the odds are. Similar to what traditional sports books do, you are seeding the odds to encourage betting. No one will bet on a prop with < 0.1 BTC total, so the submitter will never win. But if the submitter put 5 BTC on each side (thinking that there is an even chance of an event occuring), then many others will feel fine placing 0.1 BTC bets at decent odds. The submitter accepts a bit more risk but allows the market to actually work.


How the platform can incorporate this:
Right now, you don't need to do anything to implement this: "smart" submitters will realize it is in their best interest to create a compelling proposition to earn themselves more BTC. However, the platform can do something like the following during submission:

Do you want to make the initial market to encourage others to bet?
yes/no

How much are you willing to seed the market with?
X BTC

What do you feel the odds of your proposition becoming "true" is?
Y percent

the system then places Y percent of X BTC on yes and the rest on no.

Perhaps this initial seed can be exempt of site fees as well.


This problem can also be fixed by allowing the issue of "floating" shares, but then you get into the whole problem of being registered as an exchange, etc.

[chmod755]

One of your bets at Bets of Bitcoin has been canceled. We have determined that a major event related to the statement happened and this justified a change in deadline. Your bet has been placed after the updated deadline, therefore canceled and refunded. Details are below:

Statement: Gold will surpass $1800/oz at any point on or before December 31, 2012
Your side: Disagree
Your bet amount: **removed**
Reason: Reference market is closed on 28th of December.

Bets of Bitcoin
http://betsofbitco.in

Reference market was closed for a day and that's a reason to change the deadline?

[Stephen Gornick]

Reference market was closed for a day and that's a reason to change the deadline?

It is not reasonable to expect that Bets of Bitcoin to be a domain expert regarding every detail of every bet statement submitted.

In this instance,the bet submitter didn't know to specify the proper bet deadline. [Edited] The deadline couldn't be December 31st, because that is the day the event occurs, and thus if it still were open the site would continue taking bets placed after the outcome was already known.   So the earliest deadline for this bet then became December 27th.  [Edit: Incorrect.  The reference market did trade on December 31st.]

This is no different from the message you'll see at a casino: "machine malfunction voids all payouts".

Your wager wasn't lost.  The bets made after the revised deadline were returned to bettors.

[chmod755]

In this instance,the bet submitter didn't know to specify the proper bet deadline. The deadline couldn't be December 31st, because that is the day the event occurs, and thus if it still were open the site would continue taking bets placed after the outcome was already known.

I placed my bet on Dec 28.

It looks like the Reference market was active on Dec 31st (until 17:14) and the event date was Dec. 31, 2012 end of day Eastern Time. Was it known?

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=503