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Author Topic: Why Bitcoin is doomed to fail, and there's nothing you can do about it.  (Read 39239 times)
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December 16, 2013, 10:38:32 PM
 #101

Size

11 GB today.
100 GB 1.5 years from now
1 TB 3 years from now
10 TB 4.5 years from now
100 TB 6 years from now
1 PB 7.5 years from now
10 PB 9 years from now
100 PB 10.5 years from now

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DeepCryptoanalist3
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December 16, 2013, 10:47:50 PM
 #102

If they can make homosexuality illegal in some of these countries, they can certainly make bitcoin illegal.

You'll be very surprised to know how http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Turing the British computer scientist were dead.
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December 16, 2013, 10:52:28 PM
 #103

have fate in bitcoin! be strong! speculations = speculations

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December 16, 2013, 10:55:47 PM
 #104

Yes # is the biggest one...when the USA, EU, and China, India, etc, ban the use of BTC and make it a felony, then usage will die off really quick.  If they can make homosexuality illegal in some of these countries, they can certainly make bitcoin illegal.

To make Bitcoin illegal, USA need to bomb some of their civilians again. message tv and say that terract was paid with bitcoin and we cant track who did it, that is all. thats is the way for big countries to achieve what they want..

Best Bank for Bitcoins, under 12,500€ annonym Smiley https://banking.fidor.de/registrierung?ibid=52874443
Best Direct-Cash Market https://www.bitcoin.de/de/r/4879q2
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December 16, 2013, 10:55:58 PM
Last edit: December 16, 2013, 11:26:52 PM by FalconFly
 #105

Although I don't agree 100% with all points of the original poster, I do see several valid points there.

My personal "ranking" of BTC is an open-world experiment (and it isn't even clear if this is the first Globo test balloon injected by TPTB or a true "lone wolf" development as some hope - for now due to timing I do tend towards the first option, call me a sceptical guy in terms of "that fundamental change just happened by chance in the international financial world" ; I just don't buy that after working out the typical qui bono question).

Apart from all issues which may or may not get fixed or future developments...
Everywhere I looked in terms of BTC, greed and scams are literally everywhere. They just seem to vary in intensity.
Almost feels like an extended/experimental arm of Goldman Sachs or Wall St. Wherever I look, there are snake oil sellers around every corner it seems.
The best advice someone could give a BTC beginner probably is to : at first do nothing at all but read, research, calculate, verify, double-check and read up some more... (in an environment where time is BTC, almost literally)

So far, that (not BTC itself or its philosophy) is the clearest impression I witnessed, some of the hardest part working with BTC seems to find anyone not trying to rip you off or at least skim you a little bit. Maybe its users (the human with all its fear & greed) might turn out to be BTC's biggest shortcoming even if fully legit and there's definitely no firmware patch available for that Tongue

IMHO, when it comes to high finance and big money (any type), there are no nice guys to happen to better the world for free. Never have been, never will be, short of a reincarnation of Jesus or something (if you're into that kinda stuff). It's a nice dream but that's all.

Whatever the true case will turn out to be with BTC, I will remain extremely wary of its future and treat it like a hobby.
Being an IT guy for over 30 years, I kinda learned how much trust 0's and 1's deserve and in BTC mine just turns out to be very low.
I'm already extremely skeptical of the established 0's and 1's (M2, digital bank accounts, central banks print-athlon etc.), the closest we've seen to "2nd Life economics" so far just doesn't give me a warm fuzzy feeling.

(Disclaimer : I'm a very core-valuation guy, so I prefer stuff that has inherent value recognized worldwide regardless of age, issuer, governments or intended use. Bytes to me will always be Bytes, nothing more, no matter how the story is spun. Doesn't take much to make them flip and machines are only as "smart" as their creators & operators we often don't even know; herd mentality from mass movement quickly can create a false sense of security which needs to be sanity checked every day. Reserving some sceptical thoughts has always paid off over time.)

PS.
Funny thought experiment with a maybe somewhat surprising outcome :

Considering the worst-case scenario (BTC an invention of evil governments and central bankers, the Globo "Prologue")...
If that was the case, they actually couldn't afford to let it entirely crash & burn, as this would sabotage any future concepts of a one world government, globally traded currency.
Basically, they would have to transform it at some point to enable full control & power over it (their religion). As soon as sufficient governments take active steps to legalize and tax Bitcoin aka incorporate/assimilate it (one small step for BTC, one giant leap for TPTB), that's when I would head for the nearest exit.
(seeing very first developments in that area but too early to tell)

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December 16, 2013, 11:17:00 PM
 #106

1. IT'S A DECENTRALIZED CURRENCY

Does this even require any explaining? Do you honestly think that the current financial system that controls Trillions of dollars in the current global economy, is going to give up their power to some guy Guatemala because he ran he's 1990's computer the first year of Bitcoin.

Let's all open up our history books and see when the 99% won against the 1%? Almost never, and even when they did “win” it was basically the 1% handing off power to another form, and still running it behind the scenes just to appease the people.

Even if they allowed Bitcoin to become successful, they will regulate it so heavily, that it will pretty  much lose any “benefits” that it had, (Europe is preparing to tax and regulate Bitcoin) and pretty much becomes centralized and just like anything else.

The current system will stay in power with centralized control, hence why they will create their own digital fiat currencies replacing their paper, to even gain more control.

The endless printing of money is the fuel they need to bribe politicians and to enslave most of humanity by providing them jobs that require them to spent most of their time at a job they hate, being controlled by a manager they don't like. The 1% easily controls pretty much everyone because when you own pretty much all corporations, you control pretty much everyone.

With money printing out of the equation, the current 1% will be powerless. As bitcoin gains traction, fiat will quickly lose all value. So what if it's the only currency you can pay taxes with? if that's the only use of the currency, just pay taxes with fiat and use bitcoin for everything else, and the goverment can put their fiat somewhere where the sun doesn't shine.


2. CENTRALIZED MAIN DEVELOPMENT

Basically the “official” releases come from the Bitcoin Foundation. The development is pretty much centralized. Even if people fix everything wrong with Bitcoin, the foundation makes the final decision on what to include in it's next version on it's own priorities. This is basically all run by “Gavin” who caused Satoshi to disappear after he decided to meet with the CIA. The same guy who has not addressed any of the issues going to be discussed below for the whole time he has been in control. Whether by accident or on purpose is not the point. The point is the main trusted Bitcoin client is controlled by one entity, and everything they say, do, or don't do goes.



the difference is that you can choose not to accept the changes the bitcoin foundation makes.

also they can't secretly make changes noone knows about.

3. FLAWED ARCHITECTURE

Size

11 GB today.
100 GB 1.5 years from now
1 TB 3 years from now
10 TB 4.5 years from now
100 TB 6 years from now
1 PB 7.5 years from now
10 PB 9 years from now
100 PB 10.5 years from now

You think average people will store a 100TB worth of data? No. The solution cut the blockchain into pieces and store the whole blockchain only on specialized nodes, kind of defeats the purpose of decentralized than doesn’t it?

Double Spends

Double spends are already occurring, and have occurred since over 1.5 years ago, and it will only get worst as time goes on, and bigger merchants and higher ticket items come online the then you will really see the “bad pool operators” start to take advantage of this.

Nobody is going to double spend on a cup of coffee, nobody is going to commit fraud for small amounts, well at least not in person, but they will for big ticket items.

Slow Speed

Waiting for a transaction to fully confirm, is not feasible for day to day transactions. Yes let's hear the Credit Cards take 180 day confirms. One no they don't they confirm instantly, the money is just on hold for 90-180 days if the merchant sells a crappy product and refuses to honor warranty or remedy the issue. If it's fraud, say someone uses someone else card to buy something, the money does not come out of the merchants account, the credit card company takes the hit. Secondly, most important the buyer pays and gets his goods immediately, unlike Bitcoin where they have to wait for a few confirmations to be sure.

Un-Scalable

Bitcoin can barley handle a few hundred thousand transactions a day, what happens if the transactions grow to 10 Million, 50 Million, 100 Million which are all still relativity small transaction numbers compared to the 6 Billion people in the world. It simply can't handle it.

51% Attacks

51% attacks which don't have to be 51% of the network, as they can do it with far less hashpower, such as ghash.io 29% the two biggest pools combined make up over 51% of the network and can literally destroy Bitcoin at any second. It doesn't even need to be the pool operators, it can be hackers who take over the pools.

Unstable Exchange Rate

It can never be used as a sole currency to replace all other fiat currencies. Why? Because it's price is unstable. It must always rely on another fiat currency to have any sort of monetary use, no merchant is going to transact when the price of the currency fluctuates 50-200% a day. The only way to stop this is to have actual control of the currency and adjust creation.


The protocol can easily be updated, storage space is not a problem and will not grow exponentially. Therefore bitcoin is perfectly scalable. or do you think the http protocol was ready for 1 billion users right from the start? I bet you it wasnt! Did anyone complain about internet not being scalable back in the day? probably.

51% attacks are pretty much impossable, it'd be cheaper to buy an army and invade Irak...... just saying.

Double spends are nearly impossable unless you have a multi-million dollar mining network, and credit card chargeback fraud is much more common.

Exchange rate doesn't matter long term, it will only go up in the long term, no matter what it does short term. Unlike all other currencies, which only go down long term, even if they go up short term. There is not a single currency that is worth more now than it was 10 years ago. Even if you take your bank interest rate into account you'd still lose money, because the interest you recieve is not even enough to compensate inflation! Bitcoin is a much saver investment. And i haven't even mentioned bail-ins yet.

Seriously ask argentina and cyprus for example how save fiat is as and investment.

4. NO BENEFIT OVER FIAT

With everything mentioned above it shows that Bitcoin has no real advantage over fiat for 99% of the people in the world. You can't pay your bills or general living expenses in it, can't buy much with it. It's slow, not consumer friendly, as once a payment is sent there is no charge back method. Guess what 90% of the world are consumers not merchants. If Bitcoin doesn't appeal to the regular consumer who buys goods from merchants it will never succeed. Even if it succeeds it's doomed by it's very architecture which can't handle the success.

The only use it has, is sending small internationally pretty quickly, which then again gets converted to fiat for people to actually use. What market is there for small international payments 5-10% of the world?

No entity would trust high sums of money to be transferred with Bitcoin with all of it's flaws. Want to know how right I am and how wrong you are? Bitcoin has about 3 million users in a 5 year period. Facebook in that same time had what? 600M-1 Billion users.

Not to mention by the time, I have opened 10 accounts just to buy and convert Bitcoin, I could have swiped my credit/debit card 1000 times.

No benefit over fiat? You mean other than having financial freedom and security, instead of having corrupt governments printing their way out of trouble and inflating the currency so much that the citizens get bankrupt? Sure, that's totaly no benefit.

surely 10 minutes for a transaction is very slow considering VISA only takes a couple of months to confirm a transaction (also you don't have to wait for confirmation, as double-spending is nearly impossable anyway).

enjoy the expensive and slow credit cards

5. CONCLUSION

Even if Bitcoin or another crypto currency fixes all of these issues, they are still doomed to fail because of reason #1.

With zero advantages and quite a few disadvantages over fiat, centralized incompetent development, and inhert flaws Bitcoin is doomed. So next time you get excited about Bitcoin growing, and can't wait for it's mass adaption, just know it's own growth is another nail in it's coffin. Bitcoin is digging it's own grave.


Before all the geniuses on this forum come and give your wonderful flawed opinions, and say how wonderful it is, and it's going places, and I am wrong, and Gavin will fix everything, and Bitcoin will take over the world as a currency and payment system. Please refer below to get a reality check:

Bitcoin users in 5 years: 3 Million



i bet you said the same about email, it offers no advantages to mail.
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December 16, 2013, 11:25:39 PM
 #107

According to Barry Silbert, CEO at SecondMarket...

"Phase five

Family offices may be the largest investors now, but if, as Silbert believes, institutional investors get involved, they will be the largest group.

“Phase four is going to be Wall Street, so Wall Street [will have] bitcoin as an investable asset class,” he says, adding that we should expect to see this in the coming year.

All of this heralds the fifth and final phase of bitcoin, which will be mass consumer adoption, according to Silbert. That will happen in 2015, he says."

That promises to revolutionise the way people deal with money, driving efficiencies into the process and potentially saving people money. But for that to happen, the first four stages are necessary to evolve the virtual currency and drive liquidity into the market.

We’re still at the start of phase three, and liquidity is still limited, he says. That means that consumer users will lose a significant percentage on any exchange. This stops consumers from saving much money when using it as a form of money transfer, he says, adding:

    “The reason is there’s just not enough liquidity at either end of the transfer. But if the monetary base of bitcoin grows to be $20bn, $50bn, $100bn, all of that becomes possible. So I believe that the monetary base needs to grow first before the promise of bitcoin can be fulfilled.”

From:  http://www.coindesk.com/secondmarkets-bitcoin-investment-trust-amasses-61-1million-in-3-months/

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December 16, 2013, 11:38:11 PM
 #108

Go debate Stefan Molyneux about this... He'll destroy you  Wink

Better yet, get Andreas Antanopulos.

You want to see destruction ....

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December 16, 2013, 11:46:56 PM
 #109

This looks like bad news. Any chinese speakers ?
http://tech.sina.com.cn/it/2013-12-17/01139011174.shtml#483253-tsina-1-18627-1cf60a7c37a7bc296a2ba7aba0120190

It's finished for now in China.

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December 16, 2013, 11:50:22 PM
 #110

This looks like bad news. Any chinese speakers ?
http://tech.sina.com.cn/it/2013-12-17/01139011174.shtml#483253-tsina-1-18627-1cf60a7c37a7bc296a2ba7aba0120190

It's finished for now in China.


Yup it is bad news. Finished? No.

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December 16, 2013, 11:59:53 PM
 #111

This looks like bad news. Any chinese speakers ?
http://tech.sina.com.cn/it/2013-12-17/01139011174.shtml#483253-tsina-1-18627-1cf60a7c37a7bc296a2ba7aba0120190

It's finished for now in China.


Yup it is bad news. Finished? No.

Just adding a zest of drama Smiley
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December 17, 2013, 01:04:04 AM
 #112

Whats the economic incentive to use bitcoin?

What is bitcoin used for ? Its use has been mostly for drug transactions and other black market activities.

It has not been transformed into a currency that compete with the power that a state has.

If you don't believe in BTC and can't see the potential to change the world and make this earth a better place: then just log off and go away. Troll elsewhere. Good bye.
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December 17, 2013, 01:04:42 AM
 #113

So... how come everyone is ignoring the 51% attack issue?
Not a single refutation for it yet, I reraised it in an earlier post and that was ignored.

The endless printing of money is the fuel they need to bribe politicians and to enslave most of humanity by providing them jobs that require them to spent most of their time at a job they hate, being controlled by a manager they don't like. The 1% easily controls pretty much everyone because when you own pretty much all corporations, you control pretty much everyone.

Simple math shows that its more like 0.001%. Cronyism is a huge problem, and its nice that we got over the stupid "hurr hurr the top 10% of income earners are ALL EVILLLLL!L!!L" but replacing that 10% rhetoric drek with 1% is not better. It isn't how much wealth you have its how you get it. Some get it via being a creator who makes something people want. Others get it by being parasites associated with a government. Those parasitic robbber barons who are getting fat on the blood they suck from the common man via taxation and redistribution are the ones who invented and spout that rhetoric about the so called "1%" and their so called "punish the rich" schemes are actually "suck more blood of the middle class to make us even richer."

To make Bitcoin illegal, USA need to bomb some of their civilians again. message tv and say that terract was paid with bitcoin and we cant track who did it, that is all. thats is the way for big countries to achieve what they want..

Please tell me you aren't referring to the nonsense 9-11 conspiracy theory that the USA was behind the bombing of the twin towers?
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December 17, 2013, 01:21:32 AM
 #114

lol! OP is so wrong. bitcoin will actually fail cuz



and all the pedophiles don't help either...
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December 17, 2013, 07:02:25 AM
 #115

The Government doesn't need to do anything because the real world does not give a shit about Bitcoin. They ridicule it and mock it.

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December 17, 2013, 09:19:55 AM
 #116

The Government doesn't need to do anything because the real world does not give a shit about Bitcoin. They ridicule it and mock it.

wrong
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December 17, 2013, 09:45:19 AM
 #117

bitcoin is the first of its kind and will not last forever. Some other decentralised currency will take over at some point.
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December 17, 2013, 11:30:32 AM
 #118

bitcoin is the first of its kind and will not last forever. Some other decentralised currency will take over at some point.

I think you only posted this comment in the hope that people click on your referral link for Primedice!.....Am I right?
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December 17, 2013, 04:39:49 PM
 #119

Yup it is bad news. Finished? No.

Just adding a zest of drama Smiley
You're spreading FUD, that's all that you're doing.

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December 18, 2013, 01:41:13 AM
 #120

Although I don't agree 100% with all points of the original poster, I do see several valid points there.

My personal "ranking" of BTC is an open-world experiment (and it isn't even clear if this is the first Globo test balloon injected by TPTB or a true "lone wolf" development as some hope - for now due to timing I do tend towards the first option, call me a sceptical guy in terms of "that fundamental change just happened by chance in the international financial world" ; I just don't buy that after working out the typical qui bono question).

Apart from all issues which may or may not get fixed or future developments...
Everywhere I looked in terms of BTC, greed and scams are literally everywhere. They just seem to vary in intensity.
Almost feels like an extended/experimental arm of Goldman Sachs or Wall St. Wherever I look, there are snake oil sellers around every corner it seems.
The best advice someone could give a BTC beginner probably is to : at first do nothing at all but read, research, calculate, verify, double-check and read up some more... (in an environment where time is BTC, almost literally)

So far, that (not BTC itself or its philosophy) is the clearest impression I witnessed, some of the hardest part working with BTC seems to find anyone not trying to rip you off or at least skim you a little bit. Maybe its users (the human with all its fear & greed) might turn out to be BTC's biggest shortcoming even if fully legit and there's definitely no firmware patch available for that Tongue

IMHO, when it comes to high finance and big money (any type), there are no nice guys to happen to better the world for free. Never have been, never will be, short of a reincarnation of Jesus or something (if you're into that kinda stuff). It's a nice dream but that's all.

Whatever the true case will turn out to be with BTC, I will remain extremely wary of its future and treat it like a hobby.
Being an IT guy for over 30 years, I kinda learned how much trust 0's and 1's deserve and in BTC mine just turns out to be very low.
I'm already extremely skeptical of the established 0's and 1's (M2, digital bank accounts, central banks print-athlon etc.), the closest we've seen to "2nd Life economics" so far just doesn't give me a warm fuzzy feeling.

(Disclaimer : I'm a very core-valuation guy, so I prefer stuff that has inherent value recognized worldwide regardless of age, issuer, governments or intended use. Bytes to me will always be Bytes, nothing more, no matter how the story is spun. Doesn't take much to make them flip and machines are only as "smart" as their creators & operators we often don't even know; herd mentality from mass movement quickly can create a false sense of security which needs to be sanity checked every day. Reserving some sceptical thoughts has always paid off over time.)

PS.
Funny thought experiment with a maybe somewhat surprising outcome :

Considering the worst-case scenario (BTC an invention of evil governments and central bankers, the Globo "Prologue")...
If that was the case, they actually couldn't afford to let it entirely crash & burn, as this would sabotage any future concepts of a one world government, globally traded currency.
Basically, they would have to transform it at some point to enable full control & power over it (their religion). As soon as sufficient governments take active steps to legalize and tax Bitcoin aka incorporate/assimilate it (one small step for BTC, one giant leap for TPTB), that's when I would head for the nearest exit.
(seeing very first developments in that area but too early to tell)

It's very hard for them to adopt Bitcoin, as they won't have control over the value of it, meaning the 1% won't be billionaires and trilliionaires. Hence it won't likely be adopted, unless they pass so many regulations and laws, that basically converts it into a centralized controlled protocol. Meaning there is no set number of coins anymore but they could create as many as they want.

Basically if it is adopted it's going to be so different from Bitcoin it won't even matter, it will just be their digital fiat equivalent.
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