Why Bitcoin is doomed to fail, and there's nothing you can do about it.

[Raven1983]

1. IT'S A DECENTRALIZED CURRENCY

The reason you give to Bitcoin Failing is the reason i give to bitcoins success!

lol

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[freebit13]

1. IT'S A DECENTRALIZED CURRENCY

The reason you give to Bitcoin Failing is the reason i give to bitcoins success!

lol

Exactly the whole of the first paragraph has nothing to do with the positives of a decentralized currency... it just reads like a bunch of slave-talk... oooh be scared of the masters, did you see what they did to that last guy? ... ooh they gonna whip yo ass! Don't even bother trying to do different. Where are those slaves now? That'd be a pretty big win for the 99%... did you overlook that one?

Wake Up! There are people in this world fighting fiat currency and not hiding in the corner pointing fingers at the past.

Do you realise that there were still prisoners living in concentration camps long after the war was over and the guards had left? They kept each other inside with stories that the guards were probably hiding in the woods waiting to shoot them for trying to escape. Even after some prisoners had walked they still didn't believe.. but you can keep talking, we left years ago 

[FalconFly]

Just a reminder from the viewpoint of IT security :

Can you imagine what kind of cybercrime potential will be awaken when (in theory) everyone's wallet (assuming global mass adoption) is more or less online for daily shopping purposes - and BTC would be priced @ lets say... 10000$ ?

Given the already dire security record of basically all established mainstream Operating Systems, lack of knowledge by their users and the knowledge that certain intelligence agencies have backdoor keys to most of these systems... Oh boy, that'd be quite a show to watch.
In theory, 1st assumtion (mass adoption and/or further increased BTC pricing) may come true within a few years.
2nd assumtion that would need to follow to prevent mass mayhem (massive increase in IT security and security awareness by every joe sixpack).... not very realistic IMHO.

Now that's something to watch out for. I don't even want to speculate how many zero day exploits would be rewritten to specifically target wallets. That'd take the term "cyberwar" to a whole new level.

You do know there was a time before antivirus software? People said the same about the internet.

You do know even today's most advanced Antivirus software catches at best (!) some 95-96% of typical viruses, worms and trojans, but far less than 50% of specialized/uncommon malware and only works a minimum of 3-24 hours after these malicious pieces of software have been reported, analyzed and included into updated definitions in the first place ?
(and I'm not even talking zero-day exploits there, against there is extremely little protection, nor do I talk about non-updated/exploited browsers or plugins or backdoors etc.)

btw. the time between networked IT on internet and viruses/antivirus software was fairly small. Today we have antivirus products that evolved for over 2 decades designed for allways-online systems and they still don't offer any adequate protection to high-risk IT components whatsoever.
Additionally, the software today in the very best case merely tells you "oh crap, you're infected" or "virus detected & removed! (never mind the 20 other viral components downloaded and running undetected in the meantime) - plus the Antivirus software commonly isn't even able to clean a system anymore...
I won't even venture into that any AntiVirus software can easily be rooted & disabled without you ever knowing it.

Good luck risking your financial portofolio to some antivirus software that's nearly always late for the show, if you'll notice at all before it's too late.

That false sense of security and blind trust in future developments (nah, they'll fix that I'm suuuuure) is one of the greatest dangers to everyday IT - today!. Never mind that getting worse by a hundredfold in the described scenario...

PS.
When people warned about the risks of permanent network connections - they were laughed at as "conspiracy theorists". Now these "nuts" get paid 6 or 7-digit sums per year and are among the most highly sought resources in IT security... Go figure who was right in the first place, the sheeple learned their lessons (as usual) the hard way. Seems intense pain is the the only thing that kicks some form of learning curve into them - as usual.

[freebit13]

snipped
2nd assumtion that would need to follow to prevent mass mayhem (massive increase in IT security and security awareness by every joe sixpack).... not very realistic IMHO.

Now that's something to watch out for. I don't even want to speculate how many zero day exploits would be rewritten to specifically target wallets. That'd take the term "cyberwar" to a whole new level.

You do know there was a time before antivirus software? People said the same about the internet.

You do know even today's most advanced Antivirus software catches at best (!) some 95-96% of typical viruses, worms and trojans, but far less than 50% of specialized/uncommon malware and only works a minimum of 3-24 hours after these malicious pieces of software have been reported, analyzed and included into updated definitions in the first place ?
(and I'm not even talking zero-day exploits there, against there is extremely little protection, nor do I talk about non-updated/exploited browsers or plugins or backdoors etc.)

btw. the time between networked IT on internet and viruses/antivirus software was fairly small. Today we have antivirus products that evolved for over 2 decades designed for allways-online systems and they still don't offer any adequate protection to high-risk IT components whatsoever.
Additionally, the software today in the very best case merely tells you "oh crap, you're infected" or "virus detected & removed! (never mind the 20 other viral components downloaded and running undetected in the meantime) - plus the Antivirus software commonly isn't even able to clean a system anymore...
I won't even venture into that any AntiVirus software can easily be rooted & disabled without you ever knowing it.

Good luck risking your financial portofolio to some antivirus software that's nearly always late for the show, if you'll notice at all before it's too late.

That false sense of security and blind trust in future developments (nah, they'll fix that I'm suuuuure) is one of the greatest dangers to everyday IT - today!. Never mind that getting worse by a hundredfold in the described scenario...

PS.
When people warned about the risks of permanent network connections - they were laughed at as "conspiracy theorists". Now these "nuts" get paid 6 or 7-digit sums per year and are among the most highly sought resources in IT security... Go figure who was right in the first place, the sheeple learned their lessons (as usual) the hard way. Seems intense pain is the the only thing that kicks some form of learning curve into them - as usual.

My point was not about the current state of antivirus software or people's lack of knowledge about it or its lack of adequate protection... my point was about the fact that viruses didn't stop the internet from developing and Joe Sixpack didn't need to learn advanced programming techniques to be able to connect a PC online 'reasonably' safely. You assume that an increase in IT security and security awareness is not very realistic... I simply disagreed, citing the fact that a lot more people are a lot more aware of IT security nowadays than 10 years ago... it's difficult to predict the future.

[gtraah]

3. FLAWED ARCHITECTURE

Size

11 GB today.
100 GB 1.5 years from now
1 TB 3 years from now
10 TB 4.5 years from now
100 TB 6 years from now
1 PB 7.5 years from now
10 PB 9 years from now
100 PB 10.5 years from now

Use Multibit, Or Electrum.. Solved.

[gtraah]

Where are the developers standing up for this and speaking up for this, maybe  missed there comments in the 16 damm pages of BAD ATTENTION, but come on DEVs stand up for your coin... I am sure you were prepared for some of this... SPeak up please! I supported this coin When I first heard about it in November 21st at $700 It reached $1400 and went as low at 400 and I an still invested in it,, I bought it big so I am one of those guys that should be scared , and I am abit, any anyone can give me slight comfort feel free , but i believe it it , Not as a world currency denomination as thats just ridiculous but its a "Virtual Currency" And thats as SIMPLE as that, of a physical Currency . Instead of 10,20,50,100 $ Notes we have digits 001100110 on a USB or computer or a Key on piece of paper if you really want it to be like a NOTE/bill whatever you call it in your country. ? or are the devs just as worried as the future you just as scared as the OP?


And when I mean "Devs stand up for it" I mean They should have some come back replies to show the improvements being implemented and shut the bad critics out if they don't, then you have people are left wondering and scared clueless people leave we need to assure the clueless public people to sell which will eventually just keep bitcoin between & 550-800 It would not get any higher unless we get support form OUTSIDE the community As you see I am all about Marketing and perception , Bitcoin is about perception and liquidity.

UMMMM Forgot what was going to say now DAMMIT but yeh I did not finish my first post so this is as much I can think off got now.

[hilariousandco]

Where are the developers standing up for this and speaking up for this, maybe  missed there comments in the 16 damm pages of BAD ATTENTION, but come on DEVs stand up for your coin... I am sure you were prepared for some of this... SPeak up ? or are you just as scared as the OP?

I think the devs have got better things to do that answer threads on here all day.

[gtraah]

Read my EDITED COmment above ^^^

[hdbuck]

Read my EDITED COmment above ^^^

just chill out bud, changes take time. it already reached 1200$ once so it is likely it will again soon or later.

[DoctorOz]

1. IT'S A DECENTRALIZED CURRENCY

Does this even require any explaining? Do you honestly think that the current financial system that controls Trillions of dollars in the current global economy, is going to give up their power to some guy Guatemala because he ran he's 1990's computer the first year of Bitcoin.

Let's all open up our history books and see when the 99% won against the 1%? Almost never, and even when they did “win” it was basically the 1% handing off power to another form, and still running it behind the scenes just to appease the people.

Even if they allowed Bitcoin to become successful, they will regulate it so heavily, that it will pretty  much lose any “benefits” that it had, (Europe is preparing to tax and regulate Bitcoin) and pretty much becomes centralized and just like anything else.

The current system will stay in power with centralized control, hence why they will create their own digital fiat currencies replacing their paper, to even gain more control.

2. CENTRALIZED MAIN DEVELOPMENT

Basically the “official” releases come from the Bitcoin Foundation. The development is pretty much centralized. Even if people fix everything wrong with Bitcoin, the foundation makes the final decision on what to include in it's next version on it's own priorities. This is basically all run by “Gavin” who caused Satoshi to disappear after he decided to meet with the CIA. The same guy who has not addressed any of the issues going to be discussed below for the whole time he has been in control. Whether by accident or on purpose is not the point. The point is the main trusted Bitcoin client is controlled by one entity, and everything they say, do, or don't do goes.

3. FLAWED ARCHITECTURE

Size

11 GB today.
100 GB 1.5 years from now
1 TB 3 years from now
10 TB 4.5 years from now
100 TB 6 years from now
1 PB 7.5 years from now
10 PB 9 years from now
100 PB 10.5 years from now

You think average people will store a 100TB worth of data? No. The solution cut the blockchain into pieces and store the whole blockchain only on specialized nodes, kind of defeats the purpose of decentralized than doesn’t it?

Double Spends

Double spends are already occurring, and have occurred since over 1.5 years ago, and it will only get worst as time goes on, and bigger merchants and higher ticket items come online the then you will really see the “bad pool operators” start to take advantage of this.

Nobody is going to double spend on a cup of coffee, nobody is going to commit fraud for small amounts, well at least not in person, but they will for big ticket items.

Slow Speed

Waiting for a transaction to fully confirm, is not feasible for day to day transactions. Yes let's hear the Credit Cards take 180 day confirms. One no they don't they confirm instantly, the money is just on hold for 90-180 days if the merchant sells a crappy product and refuses to honor warranty or remedy the issue. If it's fraud, say someone uses someone else card to buy something, the money does not come out of the merchants account, the credit card company takes the hit. Secondly, most important the buyer pays and gets his goods immediately, unlike Bitcoin where they have to wait for a few confirmations to be sure.

Un-Scalable

Bitcoin can barley handle a few hundred thousand transactions a day, what happens if the transactions grow to 10 Million, 50 Million, 100 Million which are all still relativity small transaction numbers compared to the 6 Billion people in the world. It simply can't handle it.

51% Attacks

51% attacks which don't have to be 51% of the network, as they can do it with far less hashpower, such as ghash.io 29% the two biggest pools combined make up over 51% of the network and can literally destroy Bitcoin at any second. It doesn't even need to be the pool operators, it can be hackers who take over the pools.

Unstable Exchange Rate

It can never be used as a sole currency to replace all other fiat currencies. Why? Because it's price is unstable. It must always rely on another fiat currency to have any sort of monetary use, no merchant is going to transact when the price of the currency fluctuates 50-200% a day. The only way to stop this is to have actual control of the currency and adjust creation.

4. NO BENEFIT OVER FIAT

With everything mentioned above it shows that Bitcoin has no real advantage over fiat for 99% of the people in the world. You can't pay your bills or general living expenses in it, can't buy much with it. It's slow, not consumer friendly, as once a payment is sent there is no charge back method. Guess what 90% of the world are consumers not merchants. If Bitcoin doesn't appeal to the regular consumer who buys goods from merchants it will never succeed. Even if it succeeds it's doomed by it's very architecture which can't handle the success.

The only use it has, is sending small internationally pretty quickly, which then again gets converted to fiat for people to actually use. What market is there for small international payments 5-10% of the world?

No entity would trust high sums of money to be transferred with Bitcoin with all of it's flaws. Want to know how right I am and how wrong you are? Bitcoin has about 3 million users in a 5 year period. Facebook in that same time had what? 600M-1 Billion users.

Not to mention by the time, I have opened 10 accounts just to buy and convert Bitcoin, I could have swiped my credit/debit card 1000 times.

5. CONCLUSION

Even if Bitcoin or another crypto currency fixes all of these issues, they are still doomed to fail because of reason #1.

With zero advantages and quite a few disadvantages over fiat, centralized incompetent development, and inhert flaws Bitcoin is doomed. So next time you get excited about Bitcoin growing, and can't wait for it's mass adaption, just know it's own growth is another nail in it's coffin. Bitcoin is digging it's own grave.


Before all the geniuses on this forum come and give your wonderful flawed opinions, and say how wonderful it is, and it's going places, and I am wrong, and Gavin will fix everything, and Bitcoin will take over the world as a currency and payment system. Please refer below to get a reality check:

Bitcoin users in 5 years: 3 Million

Reason 1 is flawed for two reasons...

1990 - internet infrastructure could not accommodate for such a movement, plus secondly global penetration of the world wide web was a fraction of today..... according to your theory this would mean that Libya would still be under the regime of  Gadafi..... but correct me if I am mistaken, it was the masses that overthrew him....

Should the European banks approve and try to centralise BC, then it simplz validates, recognises and approved the cryptocurrency

And if we look deeper into history we find the fact that every movement that has gained traction sooner or later occupies the mainstream territory.  This indicates the fact the since BC is growing in popularity day in day out...it will be here for a long time....

The question remains.... what is the fair value of BC.

Finance claims that the recent value is driven by speculation hence the current high value.  If we believe the the speculative bubble stage theory, then we could assume BC to reach a fair market value of somewhere between 120 USD to 150 USD .

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/jessecolombo/files/2014/02/stages_bubble.png

[freebit13]

1. IT'S A DECENTRALIZED CURRENCY
blah, blah, blah

Reason 1 is flawed for two reasons...

1990 - internet infrastructure could not accommodate for such a movement, plus secondly global penetration of the world wide web was a fraction of today..... according to your theory this would mean that Libya would still be under the regime of  Gadafi..... but correct me if I am mistaken, it was the masses that overthrew him....

Should the European banks approve and try to centralise BC, then it simplz validates, recognises and approved the cryptocurrency

And if we look deeper into history we find the fact that every movement that has gained traction sooner or later occupies the mainstream territory.  This indicates the fact the since BC is growing in popularity day in day out...it will be here for a long time....

The question remains.... what is the fair value of BC.

Finance claims that the recent value is driven by speculation hence the current high value.  If we believe the the speculative bubble stage theory, then we could assume BC to reach a fair market value of somewhere between 120 USD to 150 USD .

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/jessecolombo/files/2014/02/stages_bubble.png

That all depends on resolution/scale of the graph and how long it goes off on the left of the screen... we could still be in the stealth phase... or gox just dropped us in the bear trap!

[DoctorOz]

1. IT'S A DECENTRALIZED CURRENCY
blah, blah, blah

Reason 1 is flawed for two reasons...

1990 - internet infrastructure could not accommodate for such a movement, plus secondly global penetration of the world wide web was a fraction of today..... according to your theory this would mean that Libya would still be under the regime of  Gadafi..... but correct me if I am mistaken, it was the masses that overthrew him....

Should the European banks approve and try to centralise BC, then it simplz validates, recognises and approved the cryptocurrency

And if we look deeper into history we find the fact that every movement that has gained traction sooner or later occupies the mainstream territory.  This indicates the fact the since BC is growing in popularity day in day out...it will be here for a long time....

The question remains.... what is the fair value of BC.

Finance claims that the recent value is driven by speculation hence the current high value.  If we believe the the speculative bubble stage theory, then we could assume BC to reach a fair market value of somewhere between 120 USD to 150 USD .

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/jessecolombo/files/2014/02/stages_bubble.png

That all depends on resolution/scale of the graph and how long it goes off on the left of the screen... we could still be in the stealth phase... or gox just dropped us in the bear trap!

Indeed, but that being said, assuming we are in the bear trap, it still indicates that the currency has longevity and that the real value is much lower than today.....BUT it still has a monetary value.... :-)

[freebit13]

1. IT'S A DECENTRALIZED CURRENCY
blah, blah, blah

Reason 1 is flawed for two reasons...

1990 - internet infrastructure could not accommodate for such a movement, plus secondly global penetration of the world wide web was a fraction of today..... according to your theory this would mean that Libya would still be under the regime of  Gadafi..... but correct me if I am mistaken, it was the masses that overthrew him....

Should the European banks approve and try to centralise BC, then it simplz validates, recognises and approved the cryptocurrency

And if we look deeper into history we find the fact that every movement that has gained traction sooner or later occupies the mainstream territory.  This indicates the fact the since BC is growing in popularity day in day out...it will be here for a long time....

The question remains.... what is the fair value of BC.

Finance claims that the recent value is driven by speculation hence the current high value.  If we believe the the speculative bubble stage theory, then we could assume BC to reach a fair market value of somewhere between 120 USD to 150 USD .

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/jessecolombo/files/2014/02/stages_bubble.png

That all depends on resolution/scale of the graph and how long it goes off on the left of the screen... we could still be in the stealth phase... or gox just dropped us in the bear trap!

Indeed, but that being said, assuming we are in the bear trap, it still indicates that the currency has longevity and that the real value is much lower than today.....BUT it still has a monetary value.... :-)

So when the graph ends, that's it? That's the price till the end of time? I see slope on that graph. Is the red line going to do a 45^o turn a run along the mean? Or perhaps after that bubble, the next one starts and up and up it goes... it's only a graph and it's grossly simplified and very generalized.

TBH after the end of the graph I think the red line goes... TO THE MOON

[MikeyVeez]

LMAO bitcoin to the moon. Hey new users one of the largest exchange just stole everyones money and is bankrupt wouldn't love to accept Bitcoin.

[taltamir]

LMAO bitcoin to the moon. Hey new users one of the largest exchange just stole everyones money and is bankrupt wouldn't love to accept Bitcoin.

They didn't steal it, they lost it due to incompetence.

http://cryptolife.net/today-mt-gox-died-and-it-tried-to-take-bitcoin-with-it/

excerpt

It’s been long known that Gox is incapable of fulfilling all their USD debts ever since their main bank account was seized. On this front, they have been operating as a psuedo ponzi scheme, where new money would pay off old money. There’s been a lot of debate lately whether or not Gox had the BTC on hand to pay off all their debts, and if you read between the lines, this press release confirms that they do not. Make no mistake about it: Mt Gox is likely insolvent in BTC as well.

How, you ask? The fact that they’re complaining about this one (non)issue in particular is very telling. Since their system ran off transaction IDs, they’ve been vulnerable to attacks involving transaction malleability for god knows how long. The attack is simple: Intercept their original transaction, alter the hash of it, and rebroadcast the new transaction. If the altered transaction gets accepted into a block, you have your BTC, but it’s still marked as unreceived within the Gox system. You can then complain to support that you never got your BTC. Support would search by TXID, see that their original transaction is not included in the blockchain, and then credit your account. Congratulations, you just doubled your BTC! This is similar to how a double spend is done, but magnitudes easier to pull off.

[augustocroppo]

LMAO bitcoin to the moon. Hey new users one of the largest exchange just stole everyones money and is bankrupt wouldn't love to accept Bitcoin.

They didn't steal it, they lost it due to incompetence.

http://cryptolife.net/today-mt-gox-died-and-it-tried-to-take-bitcoin-with-it/

 

...and you believe in every word which is spoon fed to you? LoL

Just let me remind you that in the whole Bitcoin history there is not one single entity which provided evidence to prove they lost users funds to incompetence.

The "it was hacked" excuse became the standard excuse to cover up misappropriation of customers funds.

[hdbuck]

LMAO bitcoin to the moon. Hey new users one of the largest exchange just stole everyones money and is bankrupt wouldn't love to accept Bitcoin.

They didn't steal it, they lost it due to incompetence.

http://cryptolife.net/today-mt-gox-died-and-it-tried-to-take-bitcoin-with-it/

 

...and you believe in every word which is spoon fed to you? LoL

Just let me remind you that in the whole Bitcoin history there is not one single entity which provided evidence to prove they lost users funds to incompetence.

The "it was hacked" excuse became the standard excuse to cover up misappropriation of customers funds.

and it surely wont be the last one.

[asfbhero]

Wellif you examine the block chain you can see the attacks that were being made against mt gox.  I watched it happen from my blockchain.info account where they know what they're doing. 

The reason "they" can't shut down bitcoin is because it is decentralized.  The government won't round up all the bitcoin mioners and put them into concentration camps.

Also, no one has mentioned that a mature bitcoin has a very good chance of bringing additional stability to the global economy, imagine SDR's but for people, not just central banks and nation-states, but free of corruption, an incorruptible store of value, and a huge boon to those in the third world who will finally have access to investment capital and a safe, stable currency that isn't run by a war-lord, and inflated away every time he starts a blood feud with another tribe.

I think we can all agree that bitcoin will change the world like the revolutionary innovation that it is, or it will crash and burn cause it's a flawd concept hyped by some tech nerds who don't truly understand economics and monetary theory.

[analau]

If your board go play some video games.

I think he is a human being, not a board

[FalconFly]

It will be interesting if these events place BTC close enough to cause a spiral of effects (valuation -> mining hardware prices -> mining in general) that could lead to some form of reset (dropback of BTC valuation/usage) like we've seen a few times in the past.

On the positive side, if the Gox events were caused by classic theft motives, I see no reason the valuation in general shouldn't rebound after a classic overshoot and finding a new bottom. After that, the potential for slow re-growth exists as usual.

So far, global hashing power seems mostly unaffected (still grows with >1%/day). But should hashing power start and keep (or even accelerate) declining, then I'd look out below on valuation. Right now, seems a bit unlikely though, despite Gox being quite a big singularity.