rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[OROBTC]

There is not TA that can predict the current crash. You think you have shit figured out, then BOOM you wake up with a price crashing in a damn straight line, this is ridiculous.

I'm concluding that the trick is to not chase the price on the way up and not try to catch falling knives on the way down. Just set your orders at your favorite support and resistance levels and one of your plans will be realized, which implies that you can't never go "all in".

+1.

Never hope. Always set your bid/ask such that you are happy either way.

OR try buying BTC on a dollar-cost-averaging basis.  This is what I try to do.  Buy less as the price goes up, buy more as the price goes down. 

A simple (hypothetical) example would be:

Month 1:  BTC price of $1000, buy BTC0.1, cost = $100
Month 2:  BTC price of $800, buy BTC0.125, cost = $100
Month 3:  BTC price of $1200, buy BTC0.0833, cost = $100

Total purchases over three months: BTC0.30833 with a total cost $300.

It's a pretty reasonable way to buy something as volatile as Bitcoin.

[chopstick]

Bitcoin is unlikely to stay above 1K+ without proper scaling solutions set in place.

Segwit is not a scaling solution.

Bitcoin is poised to benefit in massive ways from the global economic turmoil that is just around the corner.

But will it be sustainable without a blocksize increase or some other solution? No, I don't think so, and then the present scenario will repeat. A rapid rise followed by a rapid drop. People around the world are gonna be really pissed off if they have to pay a $20 fee everytime they need to move or use their bitcoin they just purchased to avoid the collapse of their local currency.

[cellard]

Bitcoin is unlikely to stay above 1K+ without proper scaling solutions set in place.

Segwit is not a scaling solution.

Bitcoin is poised to benefit in massive ways from the global economic turmoil that is just around the corner.

But will it be sustainable without a blocksize increase or some other solution? No, I don't think so, and then the present scenario will repeat. A rapid rise followed by a rapid drop. People around the world are gonna be really pissed off if they have to pay a $20 fee everytime they need to move or use their bitcoin they just purchased to avoid the collapse of their local currency.

Segwit is part of the solution, so is a blocksize increase.

Increasing the blocksize is useless in the grand scheme of things, you still need segwit and lightning network to get anywhere notable, you can never compete with centralized system like VISA without a secondary protocol.

In any case bitcoin's number 1 strength is being a better gold for now, we'll see about the rest. Let's just hope stupid ass idiots blocking segwit learn already the fact that we need it activated soon.

[chopstick]

Lightning Network will probably never exist, first of all.

Secondly, yes it is possible to scale through a blocksize increase to VISA-level transactions. The only difference is you would need large servers. But, the technology exists, it is possible, and it would be FAR, FAR cheaper than what VISA or Mastercard are doing.

Stop holding back your own technology. Even if LN does suddenly magically exist 5 years from now, by then it will be TOO LATE. The peoples of this world need a scaling bitcoin, now. And the easiest way to do this is through a blocksize increase, which is in line with Satoshi's original vision. Stop submitting yourself to the brainwashing.

[Torque]

I feel Bitcoin is a crazy strong buy at <800. It is just not going away. What is the downside? Umm.. going to $500 (-38%) and retaining the unexpiring call? What's the upside immediately? $3000 (+275%) and even more in 12 months' time. Just my 2 cents.

+9000!!

With the PBoC wanting to put their boot on BTC every time they detect a 20%+ increase within month, I'm not sure that we'll ever again see the crazy spikes like we did in 2011 and 2013.  They are completely obsessed right now with playing whack-a-mole and squashing any potential bubbles brewing across all of China's securities and commodities markets.

However even with slow steady growth, bitcoin could still potentially double every 2-3 years, and mid to late adopters would still barely notice. Well, until they finally do notice.  

[kellrobinson]

1) The two bubbles we've had in the past seven months are plenty bubbly for me.
2) Lightning network is inelegant.

[Biodom]

Lightning Network will probably never exist, first of all.

Secondly, yes it is possible to scale through a blocksize increase to VISA-level transactions. The only difference is you would need large servers. But, the technology exists, it is possible, and it would be FAR, FAR cheaper than what VISA or Mastercard are doing.

Stop holding back your own technology. Even if LN does suddenly magically exist 5 years from now, by then it will be TOO LATE. The peoples of this world need a scaling bitcoin, now. And the easiest way to do this is through a blocksize increase, which is in line with Satoshi's original vision. Stop submitting yourself to the brainwashing.

1. to geometrically increase block size and doing nothing else is a kindergarten/elementary school solution, in my opinion.
2. why do we need to do what is the easiest instead of what is more likely to succeed long term.
4. You will keep making bigger and bigger blocks, then what?
5. I don't even care if it is 1mb, 2mb or anything else, but there has to be a rationale behind the scaling, NOT forks all the time.
Hard forks don't work-just look at ethereum. Any contentious hard fork attempt in bitcoin will result in loss of 50-75% total value at the minimum. Maybe this is what you want to achieve?

personally, i don't even care about VISA level transactions for at least 10-20 years.
I care about limited issuance (21mil hard limit) and investability.

1) The two bubbles we've had in the past seven months are plenty bubbly for me.
2) Lightning network is inelegant.

then, what is? ...crickets

[Syke]

4. You will keep making bigger and bigger blocks, then what?

Profit! As long as computing resources keep growing then bigger blocks do not pose a problem. If we ever reach a point where computing resources, including bandwidth, stop increasing, then it's a good time to stop increasing block sizes.

[Biodom]

4. You will keep making bigger and bigger blocks, then what?

Profit! As long as computing resources keep growing then bigger blocks do not pose a problem. If we ever reach a point where computing resources, including bandwidth, stop increasing, then it's a good time to stop increasing block sizes.

and how do you determine when to increase?
I am not even adamantly opposed to increase, but doing ONLY increases sounds really amateurish to me.
i wish there is some solution where all kind of methods are merged in (Segwit+block increase+LN+anything else) and you can choose the path of payment (with or without LN).
Besides, mining fees would collapse as well with every doubling (then probably recover).

[jbreher]

1. to geometrically increase block size and doing nothing else is a kindergarten/elementary school solution, in my opinion.

Is that a problem? Are there not lessons you have learned in Kindergarten that are still applicable to life?

2. why do we need to do what is the easiest instead of what is more likely to succeed long term.

What if what is 'easiest' (evidently not, as it is so hard to get others to string along...) is also the most likely to succeed long term?

4. You will keep making bigger and bigger blocks, then what?

Exactly. What? Why does there need to be something else?

5. I don't even care if it is 1mb, 2mb or anything else, but there has to be a rationale behind the scaling, NOT forks all the time.

Then jump on the BU train. No hard fork now, no hard fork as larger blocks become part of the block chain, no hard forks ever. What could be better?

[wachtwoord]

4. You will keep making bigger and bigger blocks, then what?

Profit! As long as computing resources keep growing then bigger blocks do not pose a problem. If we ever reach a point where computing resources, including bandwidth, stop increasing, then it's a good time to stop increasing block sizes.

For whom? Not holders of Bitcoin that's for sure.

Increasing blocksize compromises security (by compromising the insensitive of those providing the security: the miners) and compromises the distribution of the network (more expensive to run a node).

You want to compromise the two pillars beneath bitcoin (security and distribution) for growth? Really?

[molecular]

4. You will keep making bigger and bigger blocks, then what?

have you even looked at how BU works?

market-driven blocksize, dude!

[cellard]

Lightning Network will probably never exist, first of all.

Secondly, yes it is possible to scale through a blocksize increase to VISA-level transactions. The only difference is you would need large servers. But, the technology exists, it is possible, and it would be FAR, FAR cheaper than what VISA or Mastercard are doing.

Stop holding back your own technology. Even if LN does suddenly magically exist 5 years from now, by then it will be TOO LATE. The peoples of this world need a scaling bitcoin, now. And the easiest way to do this is through a blocksize increase, which is in line with Satoshi's original vision. Stop submitting yourself to the brainwashing.

Wrong, lightning network is already being tested

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BsaPl87HQA

alpha release:

http://lightning.community/release/software/lnd/lightning/2017/01/10/lightning-network-daemon-alpha-release/

stop talking about vaporware, lightning network is very real.

The only difference is you would need large servers

That would mean bitcoin is a centralized mess where only server farms run nodes, so governments and global attackers can easily neuter it, making it useless beyond a retarded hipster token.

[thejaytiesto]

There is not TA that can predict the current crash. You think you have shit figured out, then BOOM you wake up with a price crashing in a damn straight line, this is ridiculous.

I'm concluding that the trick is to not chase the price on the way up and not try to catch falling knives on the way down. Just set your orders at your favorite support and resistance levels and one of your plans will be realized, which implies that you can't never go "all in".

+1.

Never hope. Always set your bid/ask such that you are happy either way.

OR try buying BTC on a dollar-cost-averaging basis.  This is what I try to do.  Buy less as the price goes up, buy more as the price goes down. 

A simple (hypothetical) example would be:

Month 1:  BTC price of $1000, buy BTC0.1, cost = $100
Month 2:  BTC price of $800, buy BTC0.125, cost = $100
Month 3:  BTC price of $1200, buy BTC0.0833, cost = $100

Total purchases over three months: BTC0.30833 with a total cost $300.

It's a pretty reasonable way to buy something as volatile as Bitcoin.

But you will never get rich doing dollar cost average. Sure, if you keep buying 100 bucks out of bitcoin every month at whatever price, eventually the price will rise giving you profits. But we are looking at what... $1000 dollars worth of profit when the next 1500 ish pump happens before it corrects again when china or whever comes up with another "rumor" that crashes the price?

In order to get rich you need to get in at a super cheap price like rpietila did. If you want to get rich from bitcoin now, you better have at least 100 BTC and be ready to wait 10 to 20+ years (and by rich I don't even mean rich, but maybe hit your first million). Other than that forget it. We would need another coin, and there is no other coin that can realistically give us 5000%+ gains in the time period bitcoin delivered (with enough liquidity and volume, forget about lame pumps with low volume from random alts). XMR already pumped hard, the hype for the anonymous coins is over. ETH already pumped and now it just stagnates, hype for smart contracts is over.
There is nothing new under the sun that could make us rich, and who cares about making a couple hundred, it's all about getting rich and avoiding the rat race.

[cellard]

There is not TA that can predict the current crash. You think you have shit figured out, then BOOM you wake up with a price crashing in a damn straight line, this is ridiculous.

I'm concluding that the trick is to not chase the price on the way up and not try to catch falling knives on the way down. Just set your orders at your favorite support and resistance levels and one of your plans will be realized, which implies that you can't never go "all in".

+1.

Never hope. Always set your bid/ask such that you are happy either way.

OR try buying BTC on a dollar-cost-averaging basis.  This is what I try to do.  Buy less as the price goes up, buy more as the price goes down.  

A simple (hypothetical) example would be:

Month 1:  BTC price of $1000, buy BTC0.1, cost = $100
Month 2:  BTC price of $800, buy BTC0.125, cost = $100
Month 3:  BTC price of $1200, buy BTC0.0833, cost = $100

Total purchases over three months: BTC0.30833 with a total cost $300.

It's a pretty reasonable way to buy something as volatile as Bitcoin.

But you will never get rich doing dollar cost average. Sure, if you keep buying 100 bucks out of bitcoin every month at whatever price, eventually the price will rise giving you profits. But we are looking at what... $1000 dollars worth of profit when the next 1500 ish pump happens before it corrects again when china or whever comes up with another "rumor" that crashes the price?

In order to get rich you need to get in at a super cheap price like rpietila did. If you want to get rich from bitcoin now, you better have at least 100 BTC and be ready to wait 10 to 20+ years (and by rich I don't even mean rich, but maybe hit your first million). Other than that forget it. We would need another coin, and there is no other coin that can realistically give us 5000%+ gains in the time period bitcoin delivered (with enough liquidity and volume, forget about lame pumps with low volume from random alts). XMR already pumped hard, the hype for the anonymous coins is over. ETH already pumped and now it just stagnates, hype for smart contracts is over.
There is nothing new under the sun that could make us rich, and who cares about making a couple hundred, it's all about getting rich and avoiding the rat race.

The number 1 thing you need to get rich like rpietila is luck. You need to be lucky, that's all. You need to be doing the right thing, at the right time. There's no other way to beat the time/money function. So as you said, you would need to get on something before most people get there, and all altcoins currently released have already gone throught that initial phase. There are no big gains to be made anymore unless you are already wealthy enough to invest like 10k which you will probably lose since most altcoins are dogshit. You can only hope to get some pumps here and there and who wants to risk their money in a casino. We would need a new solid project that challenges bitcoin and there's nothing like that anymore.

You can luck around at forex and so on but I dont see anything exciting.

[Biodom]

In order to get rich you need to get in at a super cheap price like rpietila did. If you want to get rich from bitcoin now, you better have at least 100 BTC and be ready to wait 10 to 20+ years (and by rich I don't even mean rich, but maybe hit your first million). Other than that forget it.

Pretty much true, but it is not always about home runs. A string of solid base hits may suffice.
It also depends on your starting capital, which was presumably ample already (in rpietila case).
Bitcoin was $160-170 as late as Jan 2015, only two years ago.
From $170 to $820 is solid 382%, which is outstanding for 24 mo.
Besides, it all depends on how large Bitcoin becomes (and how soon).
After all, there is or will be only 0.003 btc per ea earth inhabitant (on average).
Having 3 BTC ($2.5K right now) will equal yourself to a thousand people worth of wealth (0.1% earth-wise).
In addition, at some point, I hope that we will be able to earn some kind of interest on bitcoin in bitcoin, not fiat (via LN or something else).

[thejaytiesto]

In order to get rich you need to get in at a super cheap price like rpietila did. If you want to get rich from bitcoin now, you better have at least 100 BTC and be ready to wait 10 to 20+ years (and by rich I don't even mean rich, but maybe hit your first million). Other than that forget it.

Pretty much true, but it is not always about home runs. A string of solid base hits may suffice.
It also depends on your starting capital, which was presumably ample already (in rpietila case).
Bitcoin was $160-170 as late as Jan 2015, only two years ago.
From $170 to $820 is solid 382%, which is outstanding for 24 mo.
Besides, it all depends on how large Bitcoin becomes (and how soon).
After all, there is or will be only 0.003 btc per ea earth inhabitant (on average).
Having 3 BTC ($2.5K right now) will equal yourself to a thousand people worth of wealth (0.1% earth-wise).
In addition, at some point, I hope that we will be able to earn some kind of interest on bitcoin in bitcoin, not fiat (via LN or something else).

But we are talking about getting rich with a modest starting capital, which also means without risking much. Most of us are regular people going from bill to bill, so we would need tons of base hits to amount anywhere notable.. which statistically not going to happen (long term gambling always means you lose). The logical conclusion is as said before.. luck.
Right now we have the knowledge of cryptocurrencies being a booming market, but the problem is, there are no other contenders that could give us massive gains again like bitcoin, after bitcoin, so...

[cellard]

In order to get rich you need to get in at a super cheap price like rpietila did. If you want to get rich from bitcoin now, you better have at least 100 BTC and be ready to wait 10 to 20+ years (and by rich I don't even mean rich, but maybe hit your first million). Other than that forget it.

Pretty much true, but it is not always about home runs. A string of solid base hits may suffice.
It also depends on your starting capital, which was presumably ample already (in rpietila case).
Bitcoin was $160-170 as late as Jan 2015, only two years ago.
From $170 to $820 is solid 382%, which is outstanding for 24 mo.
Besides, it all depends on how large Bitcoin becomes (and how soon).
After all, there is or will be only 0.003 btc per ea earth inhabitant (on average).
Having 3 BTC ($2.5K right now) will equal yourself to a thousand people worth of wealth (0.1% earth-wise).
In addition, at some point, I hope that we will be able to earn some kind of interest on bitcoin in bitcoin, not fiat (via LN or something else).

If you have 3 BTC, you are not getting rich anytime soon, unfortuantely I think not even in 20 years. The marketcap needed to reach 1 million per BTC is simply too high.

Probably not even 21 BTC is enough to get rich in a reasonble amount of time (and you would be holding 1 in a million coins)

We need something else. Holding bitcoin long term is a great idea, but we need something else unless you want to wait until you are 70 years old and cant get it up to get rich.

[conspirosphere.tk]

Holding bitcoin long term is a great idea, but we need something else unless you want to wait until you are 70 years old and cant get it up to get rich.

The tricky point of being rich is that only the few can be so.

(edit) For some it comes quite naturally:
REPORT: Bernie Madoff dominates the hot chocolate market in prison
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/report-bernie-madoff-dominates-hot-174800307.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw

[jbreher]

stop talking about vaporware, lightning network is very real.

Some form of lightning may exist, but isn't referring to it as a network a stretch?

How many lightning transactions have you made? To how many different counterparties?