rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[prophetx]

you seriously say that bitcoin is pushing people away from the network because they have to pay a couple cents to send a transaction?

No. As has been pointed out over and over (and over and over and over and...), the fact that Bitcoin accommodates only about 250,000 transactions per day means precisely that Bitcoin accommodates only about 250,000 transactions per day. Period. No matter the fee, no more than about 250,000 can be processed per day. All others are (manifestly obviously) being pushed away. 'We don't want your business' is a pretty strong message. Say it often and long enough, and people start to believe it. So they'll take their business elsewhere. Obviously.

it's impossible to scale onchain unless you want datacenters running nodes

Bald assertion unsupported by facts.

A network of 5000 nodes ran by random people on their basements is indeed way more secure than a network run by super computers on isolated bunkers.

Basement dwellers with their meager resources working 5.687/3 (maybe longer if the owners are not too stoned to shut down QT for some quality gaming) are more valuable to security than robust systems running 24/7? Get a grip!

As of the Bitcoin anonimity features, Mimblewimble, confidential transactions, schnorr sigs etc,

Again, Bitcoin has been unable to roll out a meager maxblocksize increase in four years. Mimblewimble? Maybe by the time the mining block reward expires. Maybe well before that - like 2047. Maybe.

lol you gotta laugh at these people who think having a 1/2 TB harddrive these days is expensive... they certainly weren't around in the 1980s when a nice workstation with what like 40 MB HDD and 1 MB or 2 MB RAM cost 10 grand, which is basically like shelling out 30k today.

so the solution is to gimp the blocksize so everyone can run a node on his phone, but it will cost the cost of the phone to send a transaction.  unfortunately satoshi sort of fucked up on this one and should have coded the limit to expire at some blocktime.  at this point it is one of those things that given the other dynamics probably cannot be changed very easily.

bitcoin then will become like digital gold, meaning it will be just as expensive to move...

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[rjclarke2000]

As longtimers in the thread well know, my wife has applied divorce and my life is in a phase of serious readjustment. Having a wife and 5 kids was one of only two "ancient and high-level dreams/manifestations" of my life, and now at 36, it is in jeopardy. To my great sorrow, it has not been possible even to see my children. I wish this would not happen to anyone.

But being pressured more than is comfortable, also yields results. I have been considering to write an e-book, and that would be about something that I know very well, even though don't care about it, yes you guessed right, MONEY.

I have spent 11 years of my professional life studying about it, handling it, making it, losing it, even creating it. In some lecture materials I had made in 2015 (Finnish only), I claimed 43% average annual gain from investments and business. That's not too bad - Mr. Buffett has been making 20% and is generally considered successful.

The book would integrate history of money, metaphysics of money, theory and practice of monetary systems, and wealth-management and business advice. Perhaps 100 pages. I already wrote a book in Finnish about money in 2009, but, unsurprisingly, my knowledge on the subject is much higher after 11 years of dedication than after 4 years.

I feel since I am pinned down with the practicalities of the divorce, which the other side is making difficult by not letting me to see my children, increasing my emotional load and feeling of unfairness (to the extent that I consider it blackmail, which I never in my life has agreed to before, and don't know if I have the neuroplasticity to agree to it in the future either, in short she is playing an extremely dangerous game with her financial future by ignoring my honest, lawful, natural and loving request to be present in my children's life, so that they could spend time with me in my home), there is no motivation for me to make any more money as there is no family to enjoy the fruits of my labors, nor to do much else really; also I am uninterested to social activities this very moment and probably a few months still, Ecclesiastes calls this state-of-mind "vanity of vanities", yet I am capable of writing a remotely intelligible sentence that is 7 lines long, and seemingly enjoy doing it while there is almost nothing else I can do besides writing, as all balls are still in the air - why would I not write a book? Thoughts?

Sorry to read all this Risto. Didn't realise you were having such a difficult time.

I hope the situation gets better soon. Using your children as emotional blackmail is very low indeed. I can only imagine.

[CrazyLoaf]

Personally, I very much enjoy reading your posts (both present and past) on this forum. I have gained a lot of wisdom from your work; not only from the monetary discussions, but the metaphysical and moral commentaries as well.

Several months ago I did a deep dive in all of your Crypto Kingdom archives. Even all the posts on the Martti blog! The game design thread in particular was fascinating, as I could see the pathway mapped out for one of the most complex economic games ever conceived. It is clear that your vast economic knowledge and experience molded many of the choices you made, and will make, regarding the gameworld.

That being said, the "money e-book" space is flooded, but the "money + worldbuilder" e-book area is wide open for pioneers! Crypto Kingdom can be like the world of OASIS from the book "Ready Player One." You could be the James Halliday of gaming, and we certainly need one!

There have been many gaming "free markets" that had so much hype and promise before ultimately failing, like the Diablo 3 auction house. Even games like Entropia, which routinely tops lists for "most expensive virtual game item sold" with its $635k Club Neverdie, are ultimately fixed markets pegged to fiat.

The issue with all economic game models up to this point is that they have been developed without a solid philosophical base. No game has been developed with the blessing of even a two-bit econometrician, much less a maestro of the markets such as yourself When I saw in the design thread about how Crypto Kingdom was initially focusing on a small group of players, but ones with high individual stakes, it became clear how this was the excellent foundation that everyone else has missed: they try to make games that ignore economic reality and lack the "build up" stage of any real economy.

[CrazyLoaf]

The call options concept is one of the most ignored aspects of cryptocurrencies. In BTC's case, I can't think of any other asset obtainable by the common person that can absorb a 5, 6, or even 7 figures investment and still perform x100 from here. Most of the time, such things are reserved for insiders in the form of pre-IPOs and the like.

Even in the short run, people are projecting a "crash" down to $500 in the event of no ETF issuance and a souring market sentiment, but $3k-$6k if an ETF is launched to successful demand. So max short-term paper loss of 50%, but mid-term potential of x3-x6 and then even more multiples long-term? Seems like a no-brainer to me, especially if you look at sites beyond coinmarketcap that estimate at least $150B in public trading volume for the past 30 days. That can't all be fake Chinese activity

In regards to Kansanmarkka, I am happy to take the 100% loss on that if can lead to a Crypto Kingdom Renaissance. CK has the potential to strengthen XMR immensely, not just in terms of awareness, but transactional volume as well. This will aid in enhancing the anonymity set for RingCT. Think of an only slightly popular MMORPG, much less a game on the scale of World of Warcraft. 1k's of banal game transactions a day, going not to a centralized game server database, but to the world's most anonymous ledger, obfuscating analysis even further!

Unrestricted transnational currency is certainly an idea whose time has come. All we need is one nation-state to get in on the game (and who is to say that this hasn't happened already?), and the rest will fall into place. Cryptocurrency is "mutually assured destruction" for the information age, and it will be a far more peaceful world when governments compete to build ASIC farms rather than war and surveillance apparatuses. Game theory will take care of the rest

[CrazyLoaf]

I pounded the table with XMR for 2+ years and then it scored big.

CK marketcap is about $800k now (it is hard to measure it exactly), by and large unchanged from March-2015 (it has fluctuated 0.3-1.9 M since then).

it is true that CK has somewhat of a steep learning curve but so did BTC, pre-Karpeles era. As CK is centralised, it is less likely you will be pilfered of your possessions compared to BTC/XMR.

Once CK is in a more "active" state and has an asset token that trades on the exchanges, I think CK can give BitCrystals (https://coinmarketcap.com/assets/bitcrystals/) a run for its money. $10M market cap for a "game" that has been done a thousand times before. Okay (though extremely generic) artwork decorating a boring trading card game smashed up with a nonsensical disc flicking arcade game. The markets alone in CK are more advanced than a lot of crypto exchange sites; that is a game unto itself

[CrazyLoaf]

To my knowledge, BitCrystals also does not have the 'greater than Life' philosophical aspect as part of its gaming.

If possible, today's valuation of CK is even more absurd(ly low) than what it was when I was presenting it to the cream of cryptoworld in the first Satoshi Roundtable in Punta Cana, Feb-2015. Even if in EUR terms it is about x10 now.

Yes, the 3 part post with the Voice was fascinating reading! The scene was set with destruction and sorrowfulness, punctuated by light humor (and puffs of COH), and ended with the mind agape and wide-eyed...

[neilol-real]

Anyone can now ask me anything, simply for forking over ~0.1BTC.

EDIT: As an introductory offer for the first day only (or until I get one question that confirms to me the ease of the process), AMA for

$5
(~0.005BTC)

The platform says that unanswered questions are not billed. I do not yet know whether there is any quality control for the answers, or not, but for $5 I promise to give you an informed answer if the question is anything that I can help in (or discard it - for no charge - if not).

Try it out!

What a use case!

Edit: I can't seem to fill my 21.co balance with BTC? Blasphemy!

[TrueCryptonaire]

Anyone can now ask me anything, simply for forking over ~0.1BTC.

EDIT: As an introductory offer for the first day only (or until I get one question that confirms to me the ease of the process), AMA for

$5
(~0.005BTC)

The platform says that unanswered questions are not billed. I do not yet know whether there is any quality control for the answers, or not, but for $5 I promise to give you an informed answer if the question is anything that I can help in (or discard it - for no charge - if not).

Try it out!

Seems you have spare time more now than you had during the spring 2013 when the price of your hour skyrocketted. If I am not mistaken, it started rising from 150 euros/hr to closer to 1000 euros/hr.... Am I right?

[David Rabahy]

Inspired I created https://21.co/davidrabahy/.

[TrueCryptonaire]

If it was possible to trade Risto's hours I would take a long position at 5 usd and close it somewhere around 900-1000 usd.   

[prophetx]

Risto maybe check this one out for some inspiration:

https://decentralize.today/age-of-chains-decentralizing-our-galaxy-e6a6f631f15e#.x6sfx5qp4

It's some kind of card game, but  my point is more that perhaps you should go on medium.com and build up your CK empire  

http://www.ageofchains.com/

I guess they saw the pepecash card thing and realized there is some demand...



Card 003:
L'ourn, Hidden Defender of Monero

[thatbluedude]

Thank you the special One who sent me my first question! Introductory offer stays still in force at least until I go to pick up my friends from the town. (12 more hours.)

Anybody got a great question but no (willingness to spend) money?
Somewhat related: Are you willing to disclose if your secret bitcoin tree house is still active? I don't remember seeing it mentioned after you posted some sample essay.

[Febo]

Risto maybe check this one out for some inspiration:

https://decentralize.today/age-of-chains-decentralizing-our-galaxy-e6a6f631f15e#.x6sfx5qp4

It's some kind of card game, but  my point is more that perhaps you should go on medium.com and build up your CK empire  

http://www.ageofchains.com/

I guess they saw the pepecash card thing and realized there is some demand...



Card 003:
L'ourn, Hidden Defender of Monero

They saw Spells of Genessis .   What is interesting in this game toward flood of other blockchain asset games (BCY, NxC, DTB or even pepecash) is that they did not invent new currency but still use Bitcoin as an currency. They just made blockchain asset that can be playable ingame.

[xhomerx10]

Anyone can now ask me anything, simply for forking over ~0.1BTC.

EDIT: As an introductory offer for the first day only (or until I get one question that confirms to me the ease of the process), AMA for

$5
(~0.005BTC)

The platform says that unanswered questions are not billed. I do not yet know whether there is any quality control for the answers, or not, but for $5 I promise to give you an informed answer if the question is anything that I can help in (or discard it - for no charge - if not).

Try it out!

 This post reminded me of the Peanuts comics from my younger years.  I had fully intended to do something with it but didn't get a chance until now.
I mean no disrespect.

[york780]

NO 0 % chance to reach 10k in thi run. In fact this run is almost over.

[OROBTC]

Does anyone think Bitcoin can hit $10000 during this run?

My guesses are typically very bad.  So, whatever I predict, there is an 80% probability that anyone would win by taking the opposite side of my trade.

With that said:

BTC price to some $1400 - $1800 during this run.


Happy to see it go higher though!

[gentlemand]

NO 0 % chance to reach 10k in thi run. In fact this run is almost over.

That very much depends on whether this run turns into a bubble and it certainly isn't a bubble yet. It would be unhealthy if one did develop but if it did then all bets are off.

[Le Happy Merchant]

NO 0 % chance to reach 10k in thi run. In fact this run is almost over.

I disagree.

[CrazyLoaf]

Does anyone think Bitcoin can hit $10000 during this run?

This fellow has been fairly on target with analysis going back a few years:

www.vinnylingham.com/preventing-another-bitcoin-bubble-98dee44e2c7c#.48mlwk52f

He is projecting $2k by year's end.

Even ignoring the price talk, I have appreciated his logic/insights before. For example, there was a great article from him about how there was a lot of unrecognized volume in BTC OTC trading. This site aggregates some places you won't find on CoinMarketCap:

www.coinhills.com/market/exchange/

For example, LakeBTC had about 8.5k BTC trading volume today. They are one of many "OTC" sites out there.

Actually, I am a little surprised at the ETF hype as there are already 2 ways people can buy into BTC in a "regular" retirement/investment account, ignoring "Bitcoin IRA" which I think is a little weird (aside from the fact that Ed Moy, Former US Mint Director, is their chief strategist). We have both GBTC (Barry Silbert's Bitcoin Investment Trust) as well as Coin XBT (www.xbtprovider.com). The latter is interesting as it trades on the NASDAQ Nordic exchange, has market making (they profit off the spread versus declining BTC "backing" per share like GBTC) and trades in both SEK and EUR based instruments (worth 0.005 and 0.05 of a BTC, respectively).

Coin XBT is especially easy to buy as it is available on global platforms like Interactive Brokers. Pretty much anyone in the developed world can buy into it. And it has good volume. On February 23, for example, it had almost $1B SEK in trading volume (~ $100M USD). The EUR instrument also had decent volume. Oh, and CoinMarketCap or any of the other sites don't include this data at all Don't remember what the CMC volume for BTC was that day, but I am recalling $400M, so that is 25% in volume that most people are not aware of!

[CrazyLoaf]

Moving away from BTC for a moment; anyone know why DASH is suddenly pumping?