rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[pa]

Does anyone think Bitcoin can hit $10000 during this run?

Yes, I think that is likely, especially if we have a global financial meltdown this year, as I expect.

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[TrueCryptonaire]

10 000 is certainly a possibility. Usually most of the people will not wait until then and thus they sell well before 10 000 which actually helps it to rise there. A major resistance to 10 k might be somewhere between 4000-5000 (if we can go to 10 k) since many even with smart money seems to hold it as a target price.

[cAPSLOCK]

Moving away from BTC for a moment; anyone know why DASH is suddenly pumping?

It has an extremely small float and it does not take much volume to move it.  IMHO it will crash even faster.

[smoothie]

Moving away from BTC for a moment; anyone know why DASH is suddenly pumping?

Majority of DASH are held in masternodes (4000+ of them) each requiring 1000 DASH each.

Only 7 million DASH exist.

Likely a good chunk of those 4000+ masternodes are owned by less than 20 people.

This would be why the price can pump really high.

[CrazyLoaf]

Moving away from BTC for a moment; anyone know why DASH is suddenly pumping?

Majority of DASH are held in masternodes (4000+ of them) each requiring 1000 DASH each.

Only 7 million DASH exist.

Likely a good chunk of those 4000+ masternodes are owned by less than 20 people.

This would be why the price can pump really high.

Yeah, I know masternodes take a lot of coins off the market. Just really odd the coin is pumping (or rather, people are choosing to pump it) now. Maybe they are going to dump for some XMR

[tabnloz]

NO 0 % chance to reach 10k in thi run. In fact this run is almost over.

I don't think it will get there either, but then again, I don't remember anybody thinking it would get to $1200 when it was hovering around $100 @ silk road bust, bubble, bot or not.

I realise you're thinking this run, but longer timeframe, for example, I think of how many people know about bitcoin, how many think it is a scam, how many hold gold, how many are searching for yield and / or quick gains, how many want to send money overseas cheaper than they can now, and how many will look to convert their local currency into something if the SHTF.

That's the piecemeal potential market mix right there.

[CrazyLoaf]

Well Dashcon - cough - Dashcoin, formerly Darkcoin, formerly XCoin had I believe 1/3 of its supply mined in the first day when Evan released hobbled software where no one could mine. I think even 20 players of widespread distribution is pushing it; more like 1! And it is so nice that most of their "very secure" masternodes are being run through Amazon AWS...

[TrueCryptonaire]

As a pure speculation and investment, isn't it a good thing that the masternodes (large holders) have common interest with the smaller ones? It is not in their interest to lose wealth, rather increase it. It is very good boat for a small fish to be (assuming the small fish has been able to buy low before the hype).
I doubt Darkcoin will be 0.01 after this hype, the new bottom might be somewhere around 0.015-0.025 (depending on how high it will go during the current pump).
I have been following also the number of masternodes recently and behold, they are indeed rising in numbers. I recall just a few days ago there were exactly 4000 masternodes, now they are 4104 so 104 000 more coins have been hoarded from the weak hands.

[maker88]

NO 0 % chance to reach 10k in thi run. In fact this run is almost over.

Lol the run hasn't started yet dude we haven't even broken the Mt gox ath. Youre clearly very very new

[TrueCryptonaire]

Actually interesting time it will be when the parity with gold bullion will be reached, to me this is more a milestone than the ATH on Gox.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Does anyone think Bitcoin can hit $10000 during this run?

Not quite, $9588 is the current target top.

Since base low beginning of the run ~$200-225 took 12 months to double to $400-450, 6 months to double again to ~$800-900.

If the run continues on the current exponentially 'doubling in half-the-time' basic metric, we're looking at ~$1600-1800 by end of March (3 months to doubling). 6 weeks after that $3200-3600 for mid-May and 3 weeks after that $6400-7200 early June and final blow off by July ~$9588 ... almost exactly 1 year after the halving in supply that precipitated the run to a new equilibrium pricing (wherever that maybe after the inevitable correction, $3200?).

[smoothie]

As a pure speculation and investment, isn't it a good thing that the masternodes (large holders) have common interest with the smaller ones? It is not in their interest to lose wealth, rather increase it. It is very good boat for a small fish to be (assuming the small fish has been able to buy low before the hype).
I doubt Darkcoin will be 0.01 after this hype, the new bottom might be somewhere around 0.015-0.025 (depending on how high it will go during the current pump).
I have been following also the number of masternodes recently and behold, they are indeed rising in numbers. I recall just a few days ago there were exactly 4000 masternodes, now they are 4104 so 104 000 more coins have been hoarded from the weak hands.

There are several glaring issues with the concept of master nodes.

1. Currently you need ~$40,000 to operate one just on the 1000 DASH you are required to have locked up. Plus expense on hardware/software/electricity. The barrier to entry is way high. Imagine if it cost $40,000+ to run a bitcoin node or a monero node.

2. Current masternode owners with a large stake (or even exchanges that have dash) will over time gain more master nodes purely from keeping them in a "proof of ping" mode. Nothing else required.

Centralization comes to mind.

[smoothie]

Actually interesting time it will be when the parity with gold bullion will be reached, to me this is more a milestone than the ATH on Gox.

Psychological barrier of gold breaking is definitely notable moreso than the Gox ATH.

[OROBTC]

Does anyone think Bitcoin can hit $10000 during this run?

Not quite, $9588 is the current target top.

Since base low beginning of the run ~$200-225 took 12 months to double to $400-450, 6 months to double again to ~$800-900.

If the run continues on the current exponentially 'doubling in half-the-time' basic metric, we're looking at ~$1600-1800 by end of March (3 months to doubling). 6 weeks after that $3200-3600 for mid-May and 3 weeks after that $6400-7200 early June and final blow off by July ~$9588 ... almost exactly 1 year after the halving in supply that precipitated the run to a new equilibrium pricing (wherever that maybe after the inevitable correction, $3200?).

marcus_of_augustus raises the very interesting idea of continued exponential rise in the price of Bitcoin.  In physical and natural systems, exponential rises typically end HARD sometime "soon after the hockey stick" price movement starts.

Would a mathematical and/or abstract entity like BTC be subject to such?  One argument for stating that BTC would not grow to the sky is that because products can be BOUGHT w/ BTC that there would be an upper bound.

But, I don't know.  It will interesting to watch and see if the +/- $9600 price target could be reached sometime reasonably soon.

[MahaRamana]

Does anyone think Bitcoin can hit $10000 during this run?

If the ETF is approved, yes.

[molecular]

Does anyone think Bitcoin can hit $10000 during this run?

Not quite imo. But "over 9000" is in the cards.

On the other hand: depends on your definition of "this run". Was 2013 "one run" or "two runs", for example?

[pereira4]

Does anyone think Bitcoin can hit $10000 during this run?

This fellow has been fairly on target with analysis going back a few years:

www.vinnylingham.com/preventing-another-bitcoin-bubble-98dee44e2c7c#.48mlwk52f

He is projecting $2k by year's end.

Even ignoring the price talk, I have appreciated his logic/insights before. For example, there was a great article from him about how there was a lot of unrecognized volume in BTC OTC trading. This site aggregates some places you won't find on CoinMarketCap:

www.coinhills.com/market/exchange/

For example, LakeBTC had about 8.5k BTC trading volume today. They are one of many "OTC" sites out there.

Actually, I am a little surprised at the ETF hype as there are already 2 ways people can buy into BTC in a "regular" retirement/investment account, ignoring "Bitcoin IRA" which I think is a little weird (aside from the fact that Ed Moy, Former US Mint Director, is their chief strategist). We have both GBTC (Barry Silbert's Bitcoin Investment Trust) as well as Coin XBT (www.xbtprovider.com). The latter is interesting as it trades on the NASDAQ Nordic exchange, has market making (they profit off the spread versus declining BTC "backing" per share like GBTC) and trades in both SEK and EUR based instruments (worth 0.005 and 0.05 of a BTC, respectively).

Coin XBT is especially easy to buy as it is available on global platforms like Interactive Brokers. Pretty much anyone in the developed world can buy into it. And it has good volume. On February 23, for example, it had almost $1B SEK in trading volume (~ $100M USD). The EUR instrument also had decent volume. Oh, and CoinMarketCap or any of the other sites don't include this data at all Don't remember what the CMC volume for BTC was that day, but I am recalling $400M, so that is 25% in volume that most people are not aware of!

As far as I know the ETF is different, it is way more secure, and way more accessible. Mutual funds will start investing in bitcoin via COIN shares, and even your grandma could go to a bank and tell them to buy you some COIN shares.

About DASH, im not sure why its pumping, as far as I know theres nothing new under the sun right? so what the fuck is going on?

[TrueCryptonaire]

As a pure speculation and investment, isn't it a good thing that the masternodes (large holders) have common interest with the smaller ones? It is not in their interest to lose wealth, rather increase it. It is very good boat for a small fish to be (assuming the small fish has been able to buy low before the hype).
I doubt Darkcoin will be 0.01 after this hype, the new bottom might be somewhere around 0.015-0.025 (depending on how high it will go during the current pump).
I have been following also the number of masternodes recently and behold, they are indeed rising in numbers. I recall just a few days ago there were exactly 4000 masternodes, now they are 4104 so 104 000 more coins have been hoarded from the weak hands.

There are several glaring issues with the concept of master nodes.

1. Currently you need ~$40,000 to operate one just on the 1000 DASH you are required to have locked up. Plus expense on hardware/software/electricity. The barrier to entry is way high. Imagine if it cost $40,000+ to run a bitcoin node or a monero node.

2. Current masternode owners with a large stake (or even exchanges that have dash) will over time gain more master nodes purely from keeping them in a "proof of ping" mode. Nothing else required.

Centralization comes to mind.

40 000 usd is kinda big sum of money but definetely not impossible to own in any western country. That being said, in order to increase the number of masternodes the price cannot rise too much from here. On the other hand, does Dark coin need more Masternodes or is ~ 4000 masternodes good enough for the long haul..

Bitcoin is also centralized mainly towards the Chinese farmers - exchanges mainly operate with the "free coins" in the weak hands of speculators.

[smoothie]

As a pure speculation and investment, isn't it a good thing that the masternodes (large holders) have common interest with the smaller ones? It is not in their interest to lose wealth, rather increase it. It is very good boat for a small fish to be (assuming the small fish has been able to buy low before the hype).
I doubt Darkcoin will be 0.01 after this hype, the new bottom might be somewhere around 0.015-0.025 (depending on how high it will go during the current pump).
I have been following also the number of masternodes recently and behold, they are indeed rising in numbers. I recall just a few days ago there were exactly 4000 masternodes, now they are 4104 so 104 000 more coins have been hoarded from the weak hands.

There are several glaring issues with the concept of master nodes.

1. Currently you need ~$40,000 to operate one just on the 1000 DASH you are required to have locked up. Plus expense on hardware/software/electricity. The barrier to entry is way high. Imagine if it cost $40,000+ to run a bitcoin node or a monero node.

2. Current masternode owners with a large stake (or even exchanges that have dash) will over time gain more master nodes purely from keeping them in a "proof of ping" mode. Nothing else required.

Centralization comes to mind.

40 000 usd is kinda big sum of money but definetely not impossible to own in any western country. That being said, in order to increase the number of masternodes the price cannot rise too much from here. On the other hand, does Dark coin need more Masternodes or is ~ 4000 masternodes good enough for the long haul..

Bitcoin is also centralized mainly towards the Chinese farmers - exchanges mainly operate with the "free coins" in the weak hands of speculators.

To me the important question ISN'T "Is 4000 Masternodes good enough?"

The important question is "how MANY different people not colluding together own masternodes out of the total amount of current masternodes?"

[cAPSLOCK]

The important question is "how MANY different people not colluding together own masternodes out of the total amount of current masternodes?"

The FBI de-anonymized TOR.  Some people will never learn no matter how many times history repeats.