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Author Topic: Bitcoinica - Advanced Bitcoin Trading Platform  (Read 46932 times)
netrin
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October 30, 2011, 09:01:25 PM
 #241

I think Cypherdoc is right. Rarely can one predict (guess) the price movement as closely as I have the past two weeks, yet I haven't made any money using trailing stops. Granted, I was learning how to use stops during that time, but I can't imagine how one could make a penny with a $.1 spread on buy and again on sell and typical 10%+ motion in any given day.



I bought in very close to the bottom '3' and got bounced out several times with 0.2 trailing stops. Lesson learned. Bought in again at 'b', $2.6-$2.8 with multiple trailing stops .3, .5, .8 below. A few of my sells were executed at $3.8, and my trailing stops ate up the rest of my coins on the way down.



During wave '4' (from $2.05 to $3.8 ) the largest drop was almost $.9 during correction 'b'. Suppose one perfectly purchased at $2.1 with a $1.2 trailing stop before hibernating for the week, his stop would have triggered at $2.8 ($3.8 - 0.9 trailing stop - 0.1 spread). His perfectly executed gain was $0.7 with a loss potential of $1.0. If he perfectly predicted the top at $3.8 with no stops, his gain would have been ($3.8 - 0.1 - 2.1) $1.6 with a potential loss of $2.1. Roughly the same ratio.

It seems to be the same story on all time scales. The drops were half as large during waves 'a' or wave 'c', however the gains were also only half as large.

If one thinks the price will gain, shouldn't one just set the stop below the buy and check again in the morning? The price has dropped more than 10% ($.3) just about every day, and triple that a few times a week. Perhaps a trailing stop is great if the market is rallying toward a blow off.

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BitMagic
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October 30, 2011, 10:02:02 PM
 #242

If one thinks the price will gain, shouldn't one just set the stop below the buy and check again in the morning? The price has dropped more than 10% ($.3) just about every day, and triple that a few times a week. Perhaps a trailing stop is great if the market is rallying toward a blow off.

This isn't that hard. Set your trailing stops outside of "normal" volatility, whatever that is for you, out of personal comfort. If price varies beyond that, your stop is hit. That's the point. To minimize losses outside your personal tolerances.

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October 30, 2011, 10:20:23 PM
 #243

If one thinks the price will gain, shouldn't one just set the stop below the buy and check again in the morning? The price has dropped more than 10% ($.3) just about every day, and triple that a few times a week. Perhaps a trailing stop is great if the market is rallying toward a blow off.

This isn't that hard. Set your trailing stops outside of "normal" volatility, whatever that is for you, out of personal comfort. If price varies beyond that, your stop is hit. That's the point. To minimize losses outside your personal tolerances.

Seems like one needs to have a pretty broad 'personal tolerance' zone these days else someone (or coalition) is likely to pop you and eat your lunch.  I doubt that I would play this market even if I _did_ know what I was doing.  But knock yourselves out.  I sincerely hope that somehow the price takes at least one more giant hit so I can top off my tank.

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October 30, 2011, 11:27:53 PM
 #244

If one thinks the price will gain, shouldn't one just set the stop below the buy and check again in the morning? The price has dropped more than 10% ($.3) just about every day, and triple that a few times a week. Perhaps a trailing stop is great if the market is rallying toward a blow off.

This isn't that hard. Set your trailing stops outside of "normal" volatility, whatever that is for you, out of personal comfort. If price varies beyond that, your stop is hit. That's the point. To minimize losses outside your personal tolerances.

Daily expected volatility is more than 10% and Bitcoinica has .1 spread on buy and about the same after a stop is triggered. Given these norms, then it is irrational to use a trailing stop unless one expects a gain of at least $0.5 just to break even.

If a trailing stop is a set and ignored during a long trend, then it makes sense. One must believe the price will continue to trend and the stop will cross the limit while he's away. I can't imagine there are Bitcoinica users with active positions who ignores the daily price.

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October 31, 2011, 01:44:57 AM
 #245

If a trailing stop is a set and ignored during a long trend, then it makes sense. One must believe the price will continue to trend and the stop will cross the limit while he's away. I can't imagine there are Bitcoinica users with active positions who ignores the daily price.

I was one of them on the long trend down. But with these spreads and volatility, you should not be day trading on Bitcoinica, unless you have some bad reason to desire short-sale day trading. You would be better off trading on MtGox for less fees, and direct market access.

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October 31, 2011, 02:53:25 AM
 #246


If a trailing stop is a set and ignored during a long trend, then it makes sense. One must believe the price will continue to trend and the stop will cross the limit while he's away. I can't imagine there are Bitcoinica users with active positions who ignores the daily price.

There are. I'm quite surprised when I see some customers holding their positions for more than a month. Especially short sellers that start from $6. They just have plenty of margin and set a trailing stop $2-3 away from their base price.

Unsurprisingly, they are the most profitable traders here.

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October 31, 2011, 04:49:16 AM
 #247

Why am I blocked again? I want to withdraw money from my account, but got Access Denied. I have 1050 USD in it.

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October 31, 2011, 05:17:06 AM
 #248

Why am I blocked again? I want to withdraw money from my account, but got Access Denied. I have 1050 USD in it.

I thought your account was banned?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=42267.msg530004#msg530004

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October 31, 2011, 05:50:43 AM
 #249

Why am I blocked again? I want to withdraw money from my account, but got Access Denied. I have 1050 USD in it.

I thought your account was banned?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=42267.msg530004#msg530004

It's another account.

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October 31, 2011, 05:53:19 AM
 #250

Why am I blocked again? I want to withdraw money from my account, but got Access Denied. I have 1050 USD in it.

I thought your account was banned?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=42267.msg530004#msg530004

It's another account.

Well hell, if you have 1050 in this account, and -950 in the blocked one... if I where zhoutong, I'd just send you $100 and call it even.

but i'm not zhoutong Wink

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October 31, 2011, 06:02:13 AM
 #251

Why am I blocked again? I want to withdraw money from my account, but got Access Denied. I have 1050 USD in it.

I thought your account was banned?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=42267.msg530004#msg530004

It's another account.

Well hell, if you have 1050 in this account, and -950 in the blocked one... if I where zhoutong, I'd just send you $100 and call it even.

but i'm not zhoutong Wink

The only thing I did with this account recently was actually I want to withdraw money, but always got errors. So I wrote a while true shell script help me make a withdraw every 30 seconds. Mr. Zhou may think it is too often.

Anyway, it's not my fault. I just want my money. I hope Zhou Tong unblock my account ASAP.

zhoutong
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October 31, 2011, 10:13:28 AM
 #252

Why am I blocked again? I want to withdraw money from my account, but got Access Denied. I have 1050 USD in it.

I thought your account was banned?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=42267.msg530004#msg530004

It's another account.

Well hell, if you have 1050 in this account, and -950 in the blocked one... if I where zhoutong, I'd just send you $100 and call it even.

but i'm not zhoutong Wink

The only thing I did with this account recently was actually I want to withdraw money, but always got errors. So I wrote a while true shell script help me make a withdraw every 30 seconds. Mr. Zhou may think it is too often.

Anyway, it's not my fault. I just want my money. I hope Zhou Tong unblock my account ASAP.

Hi,

I thought I had sent you an email.

I have already reset your password and it's included in the email.

That's because of this anomalous withdrawals.

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October 31, 2011, 01:25:20 PM
 #253

almost 1k in debt and you opened anotehr account instead of settling a debt? shame on you.
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October 31, 2011, 03:16:58 PM
 #254

Zhou can you please swap the shading on your charts?  Up candles are supposed to be white and the down candles are supposed to be filled.  Thanks!

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zhoutong
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October 31, 2011, 04:00:44 PM
 #255

Zhou can you please swap the shading on your charts?  Up candles are supposed to be white and the down candles are supposed to be filled.  Thanks!

Actually I also think it is not right. But that's how Google Charts API works. I didn't figure out anyway to change that.

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BitMagic
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October 31, 2011, 05:51:23 PM
 #256

almost 1k in debt and you opened anotehr account instead of settling a debt? shame on you.

It was forgiven.

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October 31, 2011, 05:54:38 PM
 #257

almost 1k in debt and you opened anotehr account instead of settling a debt? shame on you.

It was forgiven.

For going into the red trying to break Bitcoinica, or for DOSing the withdraw machinery with a shell script?

Zhoutong seems to have the patience of a saint.


BitMagic
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October 31, 2011, 06:02:18 PM
 #258

For going into the red trying to break Bitcoinica, or for DOSing the withdraw machinery with a shell script?

Zhoutong seems to have the patience of a saint.



My impression was that he took some responsibility for leaving the hole wide open, and it wasn't an amazing loss. But yes, surprisingly trusting.

Please give me your money, because I am a shameless libertarian elite who deserves your money more than you do: 9Hkao8U82WWDp6SQGn4k7ad9gT1LWeL5s3
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October 31, 2011, 06:33:08 PM
 #259

For going into the red trying to break Bitcoinica, or for DOSing the withdraw machinery with a shell script?

Zhoutong seems to have the patience of a saint.

My impression was that he took some responsibility for leaving the hole wide open, and it wasn't an amazing loss. But yes, surprisingly trusting.

Actually perhaps Zhoutong see's the utility of having mb-air around.  Contracting professional QA would probably cost more and be less effective.

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October 31, 2011, 07:29:59 PM
 #260

For going into the red trying to break Bitcoinica, or for DOSing the withdraw machinery with a shell script?

Zhoutong seems to have the patience of a saint.



My impression was that he took some responsibility for leaving the hole wide open, and it wasn't an amazing loss. But yes, surprisingly trusting.

It's only one withdraw attempt per 30 seconds, not as often as a DDOS.

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