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Author Topic: Bitcoinica - Advanced Bitcoin Trading Platform  (Read 46973 times)
zhoutong
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December 06, 2011, 11:40:29 PM
 #321

Thank you, Dad. I can see patterns in Mt. Gox charts but can not short nor set stops on Mt. Gox. I would like to understand Bitcoinica's behavior. Is it executing my BUY-STOP when the BID is greater than my BUY-STOP, or the BID/ASK mean, or what?

$3.05 STOP for a Mt. Gox $3 and $0.1 Bitcoinica spread were useful answers, but I'd prefer it confirmed by Zhou.

I can't really promise anything on the spread because it's set by an algorithm. There's some human factor behind it to adjust the market risk that we tolerate (the guaranteed liquidity we provide), but basically the spread mostly varies with market conditions.

According to my estimate, if there's a wall (at least 100 - 1,000 BTC) at $3.0000 and we're going to break that, the Bitcoinica price will be between $3.0087 and $3.0237. Therefore, if you set a stop at $3.05 and it's triggered, it's either the wall has already been broken, or the remaining of the wall is very insignificant (e.g. 80 BTC).

$3.05 should be fine in your case. Even though I personally confirmed this, this is not a guarantee. It's just the experience of most traders. You always have to take risk to strategize your trades.

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netrin
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December 07, 2011, 05:36:12 AM
 #322

Thanks Zhou, I understand your hesitation to make a definitive statement. I don't want any guarantees, just to make the connection between triggers and published buy, mean, and sell prices.

Suppose the Mt. Gox price is currently $2.999 bouncing on a huge $3 wall. I would expect the Bitcoinica BUY price to be about $2.95 and SELL price to be maybe $3.05 (the actual spread prices don't matter in this example). Are you saying that my $3.05 STOP-BUY might be triggered when the SELL price is $3.05? I would have expected the STOP-BUY to be triggered when the BUY price is equal to or greater than the STOP-BUY order. ... or if published BUY and SELL prices have nothing to do with it, what triggers a stop order? When you say 'price', can you qualify that (such as the BUY-SELL mean)?

EDIT: Are you saying that Bitcoinica's algorithm anticipates bringing down a wall and will trigger orders before the movement actually happens on either Bitcoinica or Mt. Gox?

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December 07, 2011, 01:41:39 PM
 #323

Thanks Zhou, I understand your hesitation to make a definitive statement. I don't want any guarantees, just to make the connection between triggers and published buy, mean, and sell prices.

Suppose the Mt. Gox price is currently $2.999 bouncing on a huge $3 wall. I would expect the Bitcoinica BUY price to be about $2.95 and SELL price to be maybe $3.05 (the actual spread prices don't matter in this example). Are you saying that my $3.05 STOP-BUY might be triggered when the SELL price is $3.05? I would have expected the STOP-BUY to be triggered when the BUY price is equal to or greater than the STOP-BUY order. ... or if published BUY and SELL prices have nothing to do with it, what triggers a stop order? When you say 'price', can you qualify that (such as the BUY-SELL mean)?

EDIT: Are you saying that Bitcoinica's algorithm anticipates bringing down a wall and will trigger orders before the movement actually happens on either Bitcoinica or Mt. Gox?

Why would it be 3.05? There's a "huge wall," so Bitcoinica doesn't have to worry about depth and it will most likely to be about 3-3.01.
You are probably correct about your stop.

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December 07, 2011, 09:22:20 PM
 #324

Would it be possible to send out an email alert when there's a margin call?
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December 08, 2011, 05:12:54 PM
 #325

Thank you, Dad. I can see patterns in Mt. Gox charts but can not short nor set stops on Mt. Gox. I would like to understand Bitcoinica's behavior. Is it executing my BUY-STOP when the BID is greater than my BUY-STOP, or the BID/ASK mean, or what?

$3.05 STOP for a Mt. Gox $3 and $0.1 Bitcoinica spread were useful answers, but I'd prefer it confirmed by Zhou.

No need to be a jerk. The nature of your questions suggest you have a weak understanding of FOREX, and so I was giving you a response appropriate to your understanding. This is not an insult, it's a pretty complicated system.

I can't tell you exactly HOW the spread is calculated (and Z won't), and I can tell you that your stops and standing orders are executed based on Bitcoinica's Bid/Ask, which could be wildly different than anything you're seeing on Mt. Gox, in theory. The only relationships the sites share are 1) Bitcoinica trades on Mt. Gox, and 2) Bitcoinica's users trade at Mt. Gox. 

Because of those and arbitrage, you'll almost always see Bitcoinica's spread surround the current Mt. Gox price. But Mt. Gox's price is completely irrelevant to any of your profit and loss transactions on Bitcoinica, and the fact that you keep on it is, again, an indication that you're confused.

If your orders are not executing at exactly the Bid/Ask prices, it's due to something called "slippage": http://winninginvestor.quickanddirtytips.com/liquidity-slippage-selecting-stocks.aspx

I hope that helps, son.

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netrin
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December 08, 2011, 10:28:17 PM
 #326

My question pertained not to spreads but to the precise trigger of the stop-buy, be it the ask price, a buy-ask median, or something more fuzzy. My eyeballs tell me the stops are triggered when the Bitcoinica ask is above my stop-buy, but I do not know for certain whether the ask is the precise trigger.

I sacrificed a few dollars when the Mt. Gox ask prices rose from $2.92 to $2.95. Bitcoinica charts show a wee bit over $2.94 and the Bitcoinica ask is currently a bit over $2.97 and the spread is about $0.8 at this moment:

Code:
Stop 1.0 $2.9300 2 hours ago Executed @ 2.9369
Stop 1.0 $2.9400 27 minutes ago Executed @ 2.9461
Stop 1.0 $2.9500 25 minutes ago Executed @ 2.9583
Stop 1.0 $2.9600 24 minutes ago Executed @ 2.965
Stop 1.0 $2.9700 24 minutes ago Executed @ 2.9769

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December 11, 2011, 06:37:42 AM
 #327

Here's an update on my experience with Bitcoinica.

It does appear that a monkey hammering on a keyboard can double it's money if they choose the correct binary answer to which way the market is going.

I funded with BTC but withdrew all by 8 BTC since I decided I had no real use for Bitcoinica at this time, but wanted to piss a few away for fun.

I had been futzing around losing money in seconds from about 2.20 to 2.33.  At around 2.33, I put in a 25 BTC 'buy limit order' for 3.1314 (which was actually an accident because I wanted to 'sell high'.)  After a time I did something to 'execute' iirc, and it converted immediately and automatically into a 'position'.

Within a few days my target had been met, but the lower end of the spread never reached the 3.1314 price, then the market dropped.  Just recently the lower end of the spread exceeded my 3.1314 target and what happened was...not a damn thing.

So I manually 'liquidated' and Bitcoinica credited me with around 20 USD (not BTC to my surprise.)  So now I have another problem in how to get things back to BTC.  Maybe I'll just try again to lose all my money so I don't have to worry about it.


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December 11, 2011, 10:05:40 AM
 #328

My question pertained not to spreads but to the precise trigger of the stop-buy, be it the ask price, a buy-ask median, or something more fuzzy. My eyeballs tell me the stops are triggered when the Bitcoinica ask is above my stop-buy, but I do not know for certain whether the ask is the precise trigger.

I sacrificed a few dollars when the Mt. Gox ask prices rose from $2.92 to $2.95. Bitcoinica charts show a wee bit over $2.94 and the Bitcoinica ask is currently a bit over $2.97 and the spread is about $0.8 at this moment:

Code:
Stop 1.0 $2.9300 2 hours ago Executed @ 2.9369
Stop 1.0 $2.9400 27 minutes ago Executed @ 2.9461
Stop 1.0 $2.9500 25 minutes ago Executed @ 2.9583
Stop 1.0 $2.9600 24 minutes ago Executed @ 2.965
Stop 1.0 $2.9700 24 minutes ago Executed @ 2.9769

Again, it's triggered by the Bitcoinica bid/ask price listed at that moment, based on whether you're buying or selling. In a perfect world, you place a limit buy order at @$4/BTC, and as soon as the Bitcoinica ask price reaches $4 or above, it will execute the quantity you requested at $4. Vice versa for a sell order.

Reality: spread changes over time. So even if Mt. Gox price/BTC doesn't move, you could see the Bitcoinica spread move around based on trading activity, other liquidity concerns, or factors that are inherent to Bitcoinica's (undisclosed) algorithm. The point is that order execute based on Bitcoinica's bid/ask prices, and nothing else.

If you're seeing execution of orders at prices other than the bid/ask spread, it's due to slippage (or the occasional bug).

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December 11, 2011, 10:55:14 AM
 #329

Lets say the ask price right now is 3.20 right now, but I only want to buy if the price jumps to 3.5. How can I place an order to do that? If I try to buy at 3.5 now it fills at 3.2 right away. Thanks

Advanced Placement-> Order Type = Stop -> Price = 3.5

Put in your amount, click buy

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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December 11, 2011, 11:52:31 AM
 #330

Lets say the ask price right now is 3.20 right now, but I only want to buy if the price jumps to 3.5. How can I place an order to do that? If I try to buy at 3.5 now it fills at 3.2 right away. Thanks

Advanced Placement-> Order Type = Stop -> Price = 3.5

Put in your amount, click buy

So, this will only fill if there is a rally to a least 3.5?    Thanks
It will fill as soon as bitcoinica's ask price is 3.5. So when MtGox is a bit lower, it might already get triggered.

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December 11, 2011, 01:16:23 PM
 #331

Over 3.5 you mean? Yes, it might be slightly higher due to slippage.

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December 13, 2011, 01:34:45 AM
 #332

Hello, I didn't receive my recent 489.84150013 BTC withdraw. I sent you an email to support at bitcoinica, but 16 hours have passed, got no replies.


zhoutong
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December 13, 2011, 11:03:48 AM
 #333

Hello, I didn't receive my recent 489.84150013 BTC withdraw. I sent you an email to support at bitcoinica, but 16 hours have passed, got no replies.



Really sorry about this issue. Our BTC assets were mostly concentrated in Mt. Gox accounts recently. And our withdrawal wallet is out of funds.

We are currently trying to divert some Bitcoins from Mt. Gox to our wallets.

I have marked your transaction as "Pending Approval", so that you can cancel it any time and get your money back. I suggest you to withdraw in smaller amounts instead, such as 100 BTC, so that your funds won't get stuck when similar things happen.

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December 13, 2011, 11:53:09 AM
 #334

Could you supply a VIX on your home page... Huh

Calculated from your site.

VIX = Volatility Index or Fear Index as some might call it.  Grin

And post the formula, that would be greatly appreciated. It would also protect customers information while providing a basis to judge activity.


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December 19, 2011, 06:05:24 AM
 #335

Really sorry about this issue. Our BTC assets were mostly concentrated in Mt. Gox accounts recently. And our withdrawal wallet is out of funds.

We are currently trying to divert some Bitcoins from Mt. Gox to our wallets.

I have marked your transaction as "Pending Approval", so that you can cancel it any time and get your money back. I suggest you to withdraw in smaller amounts instead, such as 100 BTC, so that your funds won't get stuck when similar things happen.

Hello, I still have 150 BTC fund stuck in this way, could you please send the coins to me?

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December 20, 2011, 05:38:42 AM
 #336

Zhou, have you changed the way Trailing stops work? Because they don't seem to be trailing...

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December 20, 2011, 10:12:34 PM
 #337

Zhou, have you changed the way Trailing stops work? Because they don't seem to be trailing...
+1
they're not moving for me either Sad

zhoutong
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December 20, 2011, 11:57:06 PM
 #338

Zhou, have you changed the way Trailing stops work? Because they don't seem to be trailing...
+1
they're not moving for me either Sad

I will check the code and see if everything is right. Perhaps I broke something since the last minor update. I apologize in advance!

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December 21, 2011, 08:08:44 PM
 #339

This is awesome. A 17-year old in Singapore invents and implements a bitcoin bucket shop. I'm truly impressed. Imagine the financial fraud he'll invent and implement when he has at least 10 or 20 years of experience.

Ladies and Gentlemen!

We now have a new Jesse Lauriston Livermore and he lives in Singapore.

Thats not very nice.......
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December 21, 2011, 08:18:13 PM
 #340

Mt. Gox and TradeHill are like stock markets, which are okay for a relatively small market like Bitcoin. But what if we want to make it larger? This is how abstraction comes in.

My design approach is to take out the noise: If Bitcoin is really a currency, why should we care so much about BTCUSD's volume? Why should we even see the order book? I know these are two important components for every market, but it's not important to everyone. Here, Bitcoinica guarantees liquidity, gives people the opportunities to use margin and do short selling, and giving quotes with acceptable spreads.

The reason brokerages exist in the stock / forex markets is because the exchanges charge large fees to have a seat at the table. Since the Bitcoin exchanges are free for everyone to use, this reduces the role of a brokerage. Now, you are providing a valuable service to people by allowing short and long positions as well as the different types of orders. I think you will have success with your clients, but there is a shade of mistruth about what you do.

My position is one of a fundamental philosophical difference. I think that short selling should actually produce an effect on the market. I think that every order should touch the market. If someone sells short, you are not actually lending them the Bitcoin as happens in the stock markets. If someone gets a margin call from you, it's not because your clearing institution is asking you to settle your account before close of business.

Without touching the market, it's all just numbers in your database.

They are called derivatives. I think the young man has a great plan. My hope is HE is actually hedging, because what he really is doing is legal bookmaking...And bookies do go BUST if they dont watch it! Too much action on one side.....
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