[SHARE] Your Personal Analysis (only post with pictures)

[Spekulatius]

maybe. but you asked "are they completely arbitrary", and they're not.

doesn't mean TA based on trendlines is really accurate. personally, i think trends play an important role, but "support" and "resistance" is overrated (in the sense that they don't specify an exact value at which price will bounce off, but instead specify a price region that is of interest perhaps)

TA and trend lines are like quantum physics: you dont exactly know where the price will be at a given time, you only know to a certain probability. Charts and trendlines help to determin the trajectory and probability of given price. Its not an exact science. It has higher success rates then chance though.

[1715533275]

1715533275

[1715533275]

1715533275

[oda.krell]

maybe. but you asked "are they completely arbitrary", and they're not.

doesn't mean TA based on trendlines is really accurate. personally, i think trends play an important role, but "support" and "resistance" is overrated (in the sense that they don't specify an exact value at which price will bounce off, but instead specify a price region that is of interest perhaps)

TA and trend lines are like quantum physics: you dont exactly know where the price will be at a given time, you only know to a certain probability. Charts and trendlines help to determin the trajectory and probability of given price. Its not an exact science. It has higher success rates then chance though.

No need to convince me about TA, I believe in it as well (just as I believe in statistical methods in other fields). I'm just not a big fan of "triangles", and constructing shapes by drawing lines through candle extrema.
That approach fails to ignore (IMO) that outliers exist that are best ignored. You could have a million trades executed at 100, and one isolated one at 110, and suddenly it's a "point of contact". I'm exaggerating a bit of course, but I personally think identifying trends through averages, or at least the median price, and ideally taking volume into account as well, is a better approach. just my opinion though. carry on with whatever works for you :)

[Spekulatius]

maybe. but you asked "are they completely arbitrary", and they're not.

doesn't mean TA based on trendlines is really accurate. personally, i think trends play an important role, but "support" and "resistance" is overrated (in the sense that they don't specify an exact value at which price will bounce off, but instead specify a price region that is of interest perhaps)

TA and trend lines are like quantum physics: you dont exactly know where the price will be at a given time, you only know to a certain probability. Charts and trendlines help to determin the trajectory and probability of given price. Its not an exact science. It has higher success rates then chance though.

No need to convince me about TA, I believe in it as well (just as I believe in statistical methods in other fields). I'm just not a big fan of "triangles", and constructing shapes by drawing lines through candle extrema.
That approach fails to ignore (IMO) that outliers exist that are best ignored. You could have a million trades executed at 100, and one isolated one at 110, and suddenly it's a "point of contact". I'm exaggerating a bit of course, but I personally think identifying trends through averages, or at least the median price, and ideally taking volume into account as well, is a better approach. just my opinion though. carry on with whatever works for you

Yes, you are right in that this formation would have more predictable power if it could actually be drawn by connecting closing prices, instead of daily extremes. In this case though, its not possible;)

What we get if we connect closing prices with one another is this:


An almost parallell trading range between 145$ and 70$.
Who knows, maybe this is what we will end up with for the coming month.

It makes the occurence of bull traps much more likely, because they happen as a result of retracting (false) break outs from trading ranges, not from triangles, at least not by any definition that I am aware of, at best they are much more rare with triangles.

[TERA]

Could you draw a chart yourself to illustrate your point?

[windjc]

Could you draw a chart yourself to illustrate your point?

Lol.

[TERA]

YOU'RE WELCOME GUYS!

[Spekulatius]

Oh oh, how could we not see this giant WEDGE?

We may be in for a thorough correction exploring the strenght of that 100$ resistance once more, if this bearish wedge breakes down.
The forecast is not as clear as this pattern would make you think because of a couple of contra indicators:
1: The SR crash recovered very rapidly (although on low volume)
2: We had a break through of the 150$ recently (that could proof a fake break out though)
3: Strong Chinese buying going on

So just keep this in mind so it doesnt hit you out of the blue when it happens, if it happens;)

[meh32123]

Try to make that graph with bitstamp data =)

[Spekulatius]

https://www.tradingview.com/v/YN9kvN0G/

I wonder whether the second sell off after a possible positive vote on the debt ceiling deal in the house of congress will develop enough momentum to push through the 145$ support and trigger a correction back to more stable levels marked by the recent SR shock. Add the that Europe (Bitstamp) and China waking up to the results, me actually may see a similar sell off as earlier today.

[Spekulatius]

Comments and how I did it:
https://www.tradingview.com/v/HqhulrOO/

[Spekulatius]

One will trigger the other imo. Could also go up, depending on which breaks out first.

[zby]

One will trigger the other imo. Could also go up, depending on which breaks out first.

Looks like it's working. It was also five ways on this short term scale - so good time for a correction.

[dnaleor]

more info here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=321720.0

 

[zby]

Returning to trend line:



Target is the same as the wedge target - sounds good?

[dnaleor]

[augustocroppo]

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg10ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zi1gAccDistzi2gOBVzv

https://i.imgur.com/4rGn4XQ.png



1. Inside information? The first rats starts to abandon ship?

2. Official Announcement. Captain of the industry admits the ship is sinking:

https://www.mtgox.com/press_release_20140207.html

Statement Regarding Ship Abandonment Delays

Tokyo - JAPAN - February 07, 2014

Dear MtGox passenger,

In our efforts to resolve the issue being encountered by various rats abandoning ship, it was determined that the increase in the flow of abandonment requests has hindered our efforts on a technical level. To understand the issue thoroughly, the system needs to be in a static state.

https://i.imgur.com/vVLhW1V.png

[ElectricMucus]

That pic would be appropriate if the rope were tied to the other broken- off half of the same sinking ship.

e:

 

[oda.krell]

That pic would be appropriate if the rope were tied to the other broken- off half of the same sinking ship.

e:

 

You know, sometimes I remember why I don't have you on ignore. This is one of those times

[Odalv]

You know, sometimes I remember why I don't have you on ignore. This is one of those times

.. really rare moment :-)

[segeln]

That pic would be appropriate if the rope were tied to the other broken- off half of the same sinking ship.

e:

 

You know, sometimes I remember why I don't have you on ignore. This is one of those times

rare Moment, but appropriate.
awesome pic