btc-arbs.com - Update: dead HYIP, Refund progress: BTC-arbs still doing refunds

[alyons]

I've reconciled my gains each day, no issues, and I've compared the gains to the swings in market value between the exchanges cited on btc-arbs. they pencil, they seem to be legit to me.

Just do the simple math comparing the spot price of btc/usd on both btc-e and bitstamp, they are always a solid 2% different, so long as that fact remains, the ability to conduct arbitrage is valid.

What am I missing? My balance us up from when I started, I haven't bothered to try withdrawing yet, but I had no issues depositing (I read the directions, a little unusual but worked fine).

[Qwiner]

I just checked my deposit address. My 0.05 btc have been moved as a whole into a pot of 30BTC made up from a bunch of little inputs, from there it's a chain of several big transactions.
https://blockchain.info/de/tx/774dfb14e68ab3766793f83c07c7cc9fa1de117c50b5d21c92bb927cab527a93

Yes, I did the checked up as well, but still U wouldn't know what happen, I think your puzzle might not be be the way U have hoped. Still U really wouldn't know what btc-arbs is actually up to

[CC23]

Yes, I did the checked up as well, but still U wouldn't know what happen, I think your puzzle might not be be the way U have hoped. Still U really wouldn't know what btc-arbs is actually up to

Which is why I didn't give them more than 0.05BTC.

[ferguson]

Something I just figured out. If you go to Results and click on the date (03, today), there will be an explanation of what brought on the yield for that day. Here is the report from Admin for today:
MONDAY 3RD MARCH 2014

2.28%

With the whole MtGox debacle behind us, the Bitcoin industry seems to finally be making a major recovery. At the time of writing this, the price on Bitstamp is up more than $100, and other markets have seen similar increases. Furthermore, the volatility in the prices has brought back the arbitrage opportunities that we're accustomed to seeing between the various exchanges. During periods of rapid price increases or decreases, we find that there are always ample opportunities on the smaller markets, where the prices typically lag the global average. In addition to the profits made from the smaller exchanges, we were also able to benefit from having moved a good portion of our fiat to BTCe over the weekend. The total result for today is 2.28%

Very nice feature. This to me is Adam's way of communicating with his investors, which some have believed he does not.
Love this company and hope it goes on for years.

[ferguson]

Yep, I agree, that this is offtopic.

I gave it another thought and what really bothers me in this situation is not the number of staff in their company. That's totally out of my business.
What really bothers me is this:

Investing is about trust. And it's difficult to trust someone who doesn't communicate in a quick and transparent way (yes, I know it is not enough either but at least something). Why wouldn't they create an account on bitcointalk like Bter does ("Our IDs on bitcointalk: ...")?

When I wrote them in the 'contact' page about a mistake in their faq it took them almost a week to fix it. That worries me a little. Lack of clear and transpearent communication with their team. That's why I liked that you raised the ticket and posted the answer here.

In my country even the busiest and least client-oriented banks find time and people to comment on major bank-related forums to comment on most important questions.

Their service needs a thread like yours. So thank you too

Click on the date of Results, and you will see Adam giving a comment about that days trading.

[FreeJack2k2]

This is obviously a ponzi. There will be a lot scammed in the end, be careful. I would advise to not put any money on this website. Withdrawals are possible now to earn trust so people put more money in.

Just imagine this... daily ROI is like 2%:

1000*1.02^356= 1152553

So after a $1.000 investment they would make $1.152.553 in 1 year. Do you think, if they have a magic formula to make that much money.. that they will put time into making this website for "investors"? Of course not.

Also just search on "btc-arbs.com" on google and you will find mostly HYIP, ponzi, "moneymaker", etc sites/forums since that's their target group (greedy idiots.)

Because their arbitrage opportunities are limited by the amount of funds they have available, so yes I could do it with my modest holdings, but to maintain balances on all of the exchanges I'd be using in order to do it, I would be spread thin and couldn't buy or sell enough Bitcoin to make it profitable. But if I had perfected the system on a smaller scale, adding outside investors would mean the pool of funds available would increase the arbitrage profit potential enormously. Take a small percentage fee for doing the trading and pay the bulk of the return to the investors...you make money that you wouldn't have made, without those investors.

It isn't complicated. Having investors add to the pool of available trading funds increases their ability to make money.

[nlsupernova]

what freejack is saying seems right

if your active on 5 exchanges or something you will need to have a big amount of btc and fiat sitting in all of them to make any usefull trades. 10 btc and 5k fiat at least.
plus moving money around does take time so you need to cover that also, or your accounts run out of fiat and you cant trade.

so you need a big bankroll to make any decent profits. even if you have a good system that can take a lot of time to get together.

so i don`t see a reason why that is evidence of a scam. i would ask people i know to invest as well. and if they cant or wont this is a good option to get you operation going.

at a certain point you have more money available then you can trade to make money, at that point they probably close signups or daily roi will go down conciderably.

not saying this isn`t a scam, but i can understand why anyone would seek investment in this situation.
i put up 0.1 btc also. see how it goes. thats what i`m willing to risk at this point. and if they are still going in a month or so i`ll take out my investment and let the profits ride and see what happens over the summer.

[NLNico]

Yeh great story. I can agree that arbitrage would work like that.

But the ROI is over the full amount. So it's seriously this calculation:

1000*1.02^365= 1377408 (every day you are getting *1.02 so its *1.02*1.02*1.02*1.02.. etc 365 times)

You would make $1.377.408 only from $1.000 in 1 year. If you can really do that, you will have no problem finding a private investor. If I had a magic get rich formula like that, I would easily have a $100.000 investor to make 100000*1.02^365 = $137.740.829 in 1 year.

You guys really think that is possible?

But the stories on btc-arbs.com are great. They did put some effort in this ponzi.

[AceXll]

Yeh great story. I can agree that arbitrage would work like that.

But the ROI is over the full amount. So it's seriously this calculation:

1000*1.02^365= 1377408 (every day you are getting *1.02 so its *1.02*1.02*1.02*1.02.. etc 365 times)

You would make $1.377.408 only from $1.000 in 1 year. If you can really do that, you will have no problem finding a private investor. If I had a magic get rich formula like that, I would easily have a $100.000 investor to make 100000*1.02^365 = $137.740.829 in 1 year.

You guys really think that is possible?

But the stories on btc-arbs.com are great. They did put some effort in this ponzi.

opinions are like buttholes, everyone has one, you have no proof this is a ponzi and i have no proof this isn't a ponzi. time will tell i guess

[nlsupernova]

Yeh great story. I can agree that arbitrage would work like that.

But the ROI is over the full amount. So it's seriously this calculation:

1000*1.02^365= 1377408 (every day you are getting *1.02 so its *1.02*1.02*1.02*1.02.. etc 365 times)

You would make $1.377.408 only from $1.000 in 1 year. If you can really do that, you will have no problem finding a private investor. If I had a magic get rich formula like that, I would easily have a $100.000 investor to make 100000*1.02^365 = $137.740.829 in 1 year.

You guys really think that is possible?

But the stories on btc-arbs.com are great. They did put some effort in this ponzi.

as i posted.
at a certain point you`re bankroll big enough and any more money put into the system will not result in any profit gains. at that point the profits will go down, or you have to close signups.

it says nowhere 2% is guaranteed, its just the avarage the first month, actually it was 1.85% average as i calculated it. and there are also a lot of sub 1% days listed, as wel as some 4%+ days that pull up the avarage.

if its a scam they at least have the knowledge and take the time to make it look real.
i don`t know, but to me it sounds legit enough to take a little gamble and see what happens.
and if it turns out to be a ponzi, they worked hard for my 0.1 btc, so they basicly earned it allready. i`ve paid people more for much less entertaining things lol

[ferguson]

Today at BTC-Arbs:
TUESDAY 4TH MARCH 2014

1.15%

Last night we saw some major movement on the markets, with a sustained 24-hour volume on Bitstamp of approximately 60,000 Bitcoins. This was likely due to the speculation after Blockchain's announcement that they would have a major announcement on Tuesday. When today rolled around, it turned out that Blockchain's announcement wasn't nearly as important or relevant as was expected, and was merely an acquisition of a new company, which was being merged with ZeroBlock. Speculation drives the Bitcoin market, and often causes major price shifts, which are great for us. We managed to profit from multiple arbitrage opportunities between Bitstamp, BTCe and BitFinex, but unfortunately missed some of the better ones due to waiting for the Bitcoin confirmations when rebalancing our Bitcoin balances between two of the exchanges. Our profit for today is 1.15%.

[FreeJack2k2]

Today at BTC-Arbs:
TUESDAY 4TH MARCH 2014

1.15%

Last night we saw some major movement on the markets, with a sustained 24-hour volume on Bitstamp of approximately 60,000 Bitcoins. This was likely due to the speculation after Blockchain's announcement that they would have a major announcement on Tuesday. When today rolled around, it turned out that Blockchain's announcement wasn't nearly as important or relevant as was expected, and was merely an acquisition of a new company, which was being merged with ZeroBlock. Speculation drives the Bitcoin market, and often causes major price shifts, which are great for us. We managed to profit from multiple arbitrage opportunities between Bitstamp, BTCe and BitFinex, but unfortunately missed some of the better ones due to waiting for the Bitcoin confirmations when rebalancing our Bitcoin balances between two of the exchanges. Our profit for today is 1.15%.

I was just going to post this. The daily posts they make just lend legitimacy to the thing, for me. They often explain that they had opportunities that they missed or couldn't fully exploit, because they had funds tied up in transfer while rebalancing and things of that nature. It's disappointing as an investor on a day with high volatility that they didn't have the funds set up to fully take advantage, but I feel it also lends to their credibility to admit it when things don't work out.

Would it be nice to be able to see their actual trades and balance sheets? Sure...but I can also understand why they wouldn't want that information public, for many reasons. To some extent you just have to trust that they're going to do right by you and you don't know exactly how much of a cut they're taking but in my way of thinking, as long as they're giving me good returns, they are doing something that I don't have the time, expertise or bankroll to do for myself. Thus far, they've not reported a single loss for the day (although there have been a number of really lean days) and that's good enough for me.

As for the calculation of getting 1.02% every day...you don't. Go look at the results page for February. The daily returns are all over the map.

[NLNico]

Ok, it reminded me about "Poker by Proxy" all a long and I did a search for you guys:

Poker by Proxy
"Poker by Proxy" was a ponzi few months ago that did the exact same thing. They also gave daily results of "their poker players". These were just like btc-arbs daily reports with a whole story about what happened in the poker world. This is why many people believed them. After a few months they run away with the money.

Backup site:
https://web.archive.org/web/20131203020947/https://pokerbyproxy.com/
note:
- same type of design/style
- same type of info
- same page names (!!) like /join.html, /results.html, /login.html, /results/2013/12/04.html - as a webdev I can tell you that exactly the same page names on a site is rare - most have at least "register" instead of "join" or no .html suffix. That specific result page /results/2013/12/04.html is extremely rare - almost impossible. You can check this on archive.org by hovering over the link.
- same HTML structure, like (NOTE: /assets/img/ same URLs)
pokerbyproxy:

Code:

<link rel="shortcut icon" href="/web/20131205235008im_/https://pokerbyproxy.com/assets/img/favicon.ico" type="image/x-icon">
<link rel="stylesheet" href="/web/20131205235008cs_/https://pokerbyproxy.com/assets/css/style.css"/>
<script type="text/javascript" src="/web/20131205235008js_/https://pokerbyproxy.com/assets/js/jquery-1.10.1.min.js">

btc-arbs:

Code:

<link rel="shortcut icon" href="/assets/img/favicon.ico" type="image/x-icon">
<link rel="stylesheet" href="/assets/css/style.css" />
<script type="text/javascript" src="/assets/js/jquery-1.10.1.min.js">

and on both sites:

Code:

<div class="f_clear"></div>

and other same classes like "footer_wrap", "footer_nav", etc.

You can check this on archive.org

The members area:
http://i1.ytimg.com/vi/1kY24FUzqS4/maxresdefault.jpg
note:
- identical members menu


Do a bit of search on "poker by proxy" and you will see how similar that website was. They officially only run away with the money 3 months ago. Looks like the same owner started btc-arbs after that.


Once again: DO NOT DEPOSIT MONEY ON BTC-ARBS, it is obviously a ponzi and 99% sure its the same as "Proxy by poker". Get your money out as long as you can - unless you like a ponzi.

[FreeJack2k2]

I don't know that cribbing a site design is necessarily a sign that it's a Ponzi scheme. It's more efficient to take a site that works and just swap out the graphics. Entirely possible that the BTC-Arbs people contracted with the same web developer (listed on the archive page as VentureTech - http://www.venturetechsolutions.com/) which just iterated on their original design.

Who built the Poker By Proxy website?
The Poker By Proxy website was created by VentureTech, a digital web development firm that has a history of developing internet banking and investment software.

Of course, only invest what you can comfortably afford to lose if the whole thing crumbles, though.

[NLNico]

The design was just 1 small example. The URLs and code are solid proof. Any webdev can see that.

If the same webdev made this website,  it also says enough.

[nlsupernova]

i`m gonna side with nlnico here.

it does seem extremely similar. the writing style and all. plus all other things allready pointed out to be fishy.
seeing that poker site, i`m pretty sure its the same guys, or copycats maybe.

run, run, run

[BitCoinPokerBro]

Ok, it reminded me about "Poker by Proxy" all a long and I did a search for you guys:

Poker by Proxy
"Poker by Proxy" was a ponzi few months ago that did the exact same thing. They also gave daily results of "their poker players". These were just like btc-arbs daily reports with a whole story about what happened in the poker world. This is why many people believed them. After a few months they run away with the money.

Backup site:
https://web.archive.org/web/20131203020947/https://pokerbyproxy.com/
note:
- same type of design/style
- same type of info
- same page names (!!) like /join.html, /results.html, /login.html, /results/2013/12/04.html - as a webdev I can tell you that exactly the same page names on a site is rare - most have at least "register" instead of "join" or no .html suffix. That specific result page /results/2013/12/04.html is extremely rare - almost impossible. You can check this on archive.org by hovering over the link.
- same HTML structure, like (NOTE: /assets/img/ same URLs)
pokerbyproxy:

Code:

<link rel="shortcut icon" href="/web/20131205235008im_/https://pokerbyproxy.com/assets/img/favicon.ico" type="image/x-icon">
<link rel="stylesheet" href="/web/20131205235008cs_/https://pokerbyproxy.com/assets/css/style.css"/>
<script type="text/javascript" src="/web/20131205235008js_/https://pokerbyproxy.com/assets/js/jquery-1.10.1.min.js">

btc-arbs:

Code:

<link rel="shortcut icon" href="/assets/img/favicon.ico" type="image/x-icon">
<link rel="stylesheet" href="/assets/css/style.css" />
<script type="text/javascript" src="/assets/js/jquery-1.10.1.min.js">

and on both sites:

Code:

<div class="f_clear"></div>

and other same classes like "footer_wrap", "footer_nav", etc.

You can check this on archive.org

The members area:
http://i1.ytimg.com/vi/1kY24FUzqS4/maxresdefault.jpg
note:
- identical members menu


Do a bit of search on "poker by proxy" and you will see how similar that website was. They officially only run away with the money 3 months ago. Looks like the same owner started btc-arbs after that.


Once again: DO NOT DEPOSIT MONEY ON BTC-ARBS, it is obviously a ponzi and 99% sure its the same as "Proxy by poker". Get your money out as long as you can - unless you like a ponzi.

^^ crystal clear ^^

[healthandwealth]

After reading this thread I've decided to withdraw my initial investment from the site.  I got caught up in the site's idea but am now realizing 'if its too good to be true' it probably is.

Update:  my withdrawal was successful. 

Now I've got a tiny fraction in there just to see if the site stays up more than a month or two or if the owner bails or not.  Time will tell.  Happy I acted right away though.  With BTC's potential so high, it would be a shame to lose it all to something as asinine as a ponzi scheme.

[woowoo]

i think until they add 2fa or email confirmation for withdrawals, its a bit sketchy.
i did send a request , and they said it should be within a few weeks...
cant see to se how they make money, they don't disclose their fee's

[FreeJack2k2]

After reading this thread I've decided to withdraw my initial investment from the site.  I got caught up in the site's idea but am now realizing 'if its too good to be true' it probably is.

Update:  my withdrawal was successful.  

Now I've got a tiny fraction in there just to see if the site stays up more than a month or two or if the owner bails or not.  Time will tell.  Happy I acted right away though.  With BTC's potential so high, it would be a shame to lose it all to something as asinine as a ponzi scheme.

I plan to stay in it until I see some red flags in their conduct, so far I haven't had any problems getting support answers, withdrawing money or anything at all. I think it's just as likely that the web developer re-purposed a past design for these guys and that's what they're using. There is a pretty giant leap in expertise between poker and Bitcoin, these guys demonstrate a good grasp on the market in their daily reports and the returns accurately reflect what the market conditions were for the day. They also have not been advertising, they seem to be getting most of their business via referrals. No fake videos with actors promising the world, etc... I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt for now, and see how it goes. So far it's two weeks with no problems.