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Author Topic: btc-arbs.com - Update: dead HYIP, Refund progress: BTC-arbs still doing refunds  (Read 254175 times)
dyask
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April 18, 2014, 11:00:44 AM
 #701

Since there is a BTC Arbs shill posting in the Bitcoin Trader thread, I thought I'd come over here and bump my previous post regarding why BTC Arbs has a much higher probability of being a straight up ponzi with absolutely no arbitrage trading going on as compared to Bitcoin Trader. All my original points still apply, plus now we also have the site outage. This is very common with HYIPs as they are often attacked by competing HYIPs or hackers (it was previously noted that a lot of the traffic going to BTC Arbs originated from Russia, a hotbed for hacker and HYIP activity).

In addition, is it not strange that on the days when the Bitcoin price was plummeting and Bitcoin Trader produced a small loss as a result, BTC Arbs still managed to produce a gain? Have they ever posted a loss? I guess they must be a division of Goldman Sachs.

Finally, how about transparency? Has anyone ever spoken to the BTC Arbs admin in person? The Bitcoin Trader CEO is known in the Bitcoin community and the company was represented at the Bitcoin conference in Toronto. See here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=393570.msg6250784#msg6250784

I came here because I got fed up with the BTC Arbs shill coming over to the Bitcoin Trader thread with the balls to call that program "shady" while promoting this piece of crap HYIP. Below is my original, thorough post with a whole lot more reasons. Bottom line - I assure you that Bitcoin Trader will be operating for a hell of a lot longer than BTC Arbs!

Let's be clear, I don't think anyone here is claiming that there isn't any chance that btc-arbs isn't a scam.   In fact 24 hours ago it sure looked like one.

About your points.

1) Successful arbitrage trading doesn't normally result in losses.  If you get losses it is probably because the trades weren't done at the same time or the market depth wasn't there to support the trades.   That is poor trading.

2) Being in the public isn't an assurance that something isn't a scam, the biggest scams in history have been pulled off in public.   

3) As the size of the arbitrage trading grows, there will be smaller gains.  If both sites are legit, the gains will probably be much more modest in a year. 

I do find bitcoin-trader to be even shadier than btc-arbs, but that is my opinion.  That is mainly do to the lock-in periods and forcing everything to cash, represented in shares with no reinvestment.   Also only trading a 24x7 market during business hours is plain wacky.   Best case it is just really strange. 

So btc-arbs didn't fold-up yet, I guess that ruined your day.   Personally I won't be happy if bitcoin-trader.biz does turn out to be a scam. 


Well, it is noted here that btc-arbs is not processing large withdrawal requests. Remember that guy that tried to cashout 30 BTC? An affiliate of mine received yesterday 46 BTC back from bitcoin-trader, within 12 hours after the request was made. A few of his shares expired. Even though he was supposed and did indeed re-invest, he cashed out first to see if they honor his request. They did. Anyone here who got more than breadcrumbs back from btc-arbs?

If you look back through the thread you will see many pulled out more than a bitcoin and one guy pulled out 3 btc.   I don't know if you consider those crumbs or not. 

Personally, I'm not sure how this will play out as I fully expect a run on the bank now.   The best case is we probably have lower gains for awhile.
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April 18, 2014, 11:09:32 AM
 #702

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Personally, I'm not sure how this will play out as I fully expect a run on the bank now.   The best case is we probably have lower gains for awhile.

Maybe even better ... If arb opportunitys are limited, the impact on a smaller budget would be bigger. If you have 100K to share your profit, or you have 50K to share almost the same profit ...
Anyway, I'm having some on both, some on other HYIP, as long as most survive i win ...
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April 18, 2014, 11:17:35 AM
 #703

Quote
Personally, I'm not sure how this will play out as I fully expect a run on the bank now.   The best case is we probably have lower gains for awhile.

Maybe even better ... If arb opportunitys are limited, the impact on a smaller budget would be bigger. If you have 100K to share your profit, or you have 50K to share almost the same profit ...
Anyway, I'm having some on both, some on other HYIP, as long as most survive i win ...

There isn't anything wrong with spreading your risks.  I think one HYIP is enough for me, but I have 3 other things going in too.  (some cloud mining, PTS/AGS and also renting a mining rig.)   I don't know what is going to happen here, but I do have some morbid interest too along with my small investment.
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April 18, 2014, 11:20:55 AM
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Personally, I'm not sure how this will play out as I fully expect a run on the bank now.   The best case is we probably have lower gains for awhile.

Maybe even better ... If arb opportunitys are limited, the impact on a smaller budget would be bigger. If you have 100K to share your profit, or you have 50K to share almost the same profit ...
Anyway, I'm having some on both, some on other HYIP, as long as most survive i win ...

There isn't anything wrong with spreading your risks.  I think one HYIP is enough for me, but I have 3 other things going in too.  (some cloud mining, PTS/AGS and also renting a mining rig.)   I don't know what is going to happen here, but I do have some morbid interest too along with my small investment.

That is not correct. With less capital, less liquidity to trade is available.
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April 18, 2014, 11:57:30 AM
 #705

Quote
Personally, I'm not sure how this will play out as I fully expect a run on the bank now.   The best case is we probably have lower gains for awhile.

Maybe even better ... If arb opportunitys are limited, the impact on a smaller budget would be bigger. If you have 100K to share your profit, or you have 50K to share almost the same profit ...
Anyway, I'm having some on both, some on other HYIP, as long as most survive i win ...

There isn't anything wrong with spreading your risks.  I think one HYIP is enough for me, but I have 3 other things going in too.  (some cloud mining, PTS/AGS and also renting a mining rig.)   I don't know what is going to happen here, but I do have some morbid interest too along with my small investment.

That is not correct. With less capital, less liquidity to trade is available.
Less liquidity, but also smaller trades that don't impact the market as much.   Within reasonable limits it is probably a wash.
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April 18, 2014, 03:09:20 PM
 #706

In my experience withdrawing anything 5BTC and under from btc-arbs is very quick.  Adam has said in tickets that any amount over that needs to be approved by their technical team and that's why it takes longer.

BTC: 14PzAZCW1k8aA4FFFZ55LxizQqwBR969ee
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April 18, 2014, 04:58:45 PM
 #707

Ok, so I have been working with the information the site provides to try to duplicate my actual results using the numbers the web site provides.
It is not possible to do that.  The daily percentages being reported are ever so slightly skewed upwards.

The data we are being given is being skewed in such a way that it looks good if you calculate the last couple of days but when you try to work a whole month you will always come up with a *much* bigger projected net than you will actually receive.

I am open to being corrected on this (actually would happily be corrected) but the numbers just don't work.  I've had BTC invested since 2 Feb.  I've pulled all the percentages into a spread sheet and all the transactions.  Considering deposits and earnings and using the following computation.  If the percentages were correct I would have about 1.8 to 2 times as much BTC in the account(s) than I actually do.  


For each day:
       # yesterday's balance + (yesterday's balance * interest)
       # example:
              balance = 1.234
              interest = 0.023
              new balance = (1.234 +( 1.234 * 0.023)) = 1.262382
              if there are new deposits add into new balance here.
Next day

When I use that process I get projected earnings far in excess (about double) of what I have actually seen.  Unfortunately since interest is compounded the projection gets farther and farther from true earnings over time.

The percentages reported are not the actual earnings.  Maybe truncation is taking place.  I think the programmer is making as much from my BTC as I am from the looks of it, or he is inflating the percentages.  My guess is the programmer is rounding down (truncating) when he computes my new balance and rounding up (google roundup function) when he reports daily percentage.  This is the logical way to run the site; however, the net for the site is much larger depending which decimal place is rounded.  We are not being given that information when we ask for it.

We do not have a clear enough picture of what we are paying for the service.

I will be moving 2/5 of my arbitrage investment to https://bitcoin-trader.biz/results.php.  I'm putting the last 1/5 back up on coinbase as a hedge.  Please set me as a referrer if you decide likewise:  https://bitcoin-trader.biz/?ref=micers
compounded interest really adds up quickly, and the difference between even 1.4% and 1.5% are extreme. But still, i will not worry, even 0,1% interest is better then 0%.

By the way, the average interest so far is about 1.4% I have calculated that if they keep compounding interest at the same rate (1.4% per day average) that an initial investment of just 0.3 BTC would become over 40 BTC in a year. This is really insane. (also, i did not truncate like they do).

Of course at some point it will not be possible to scale up though, because of the limits of arbitrage. The more you do arbitrage the smaller the spread will be, and the smaller the spread, the smaller the profit. So i doubt they'll keep this percentage up.

Still, it's a nice gambit.
dyask
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April 18, 2014, 10:24:51 PM
 #708

Ok, so I have been working with the information the site provides to try to duplicate my actual results using the numbers the web site provides.
It is not possible to do that.  The daily percentages being reported are ever so slightly skewed upwards.

The data we are being given is being skewed in such a way that it looks good if you calculate the last couple of days but when you try to work a whole month you will always come up with a *much* bigger projected net than you will actually receive.

I am open to being corrected on this (actually would happily be corrected) but the numbers just don't work.  I've had BTC invested since 2 Feb.  I've pulled all the percentages into a spread sheet and all the transactions.  Considering deposits and earnings and using the following computation.  If the percentages were correct I would have about 1.8 to 2 times as much BTC in the account(s) than I actually do.  


For each day:
       # yesterday's balance + (yesterday's balance * interest)
       # example:
              balance = 1.234
              interest = 0.023
              new balance = (1.234 +( 1.234 * 0.023)) = 1.262382
              if there are new deposits add into new balance here.
Next day

When I use that process I get projected earnings far in excess (about double) of what I have actually seen.  Unfortunately since interest is compounded the projection gets farther and farther from true earnings over time.

The percentages reported are not the actual earnings.  Maybe truncation is taking place.  I think the programmer is making as much from my BTC as I am from the looks of it, or he is inflating the percentages.  My guess is the programmer is rounding down (truncating) when he computes my new balance and rounding up (google roundup function) when he reports daily percentage.  This is the logical way to run the site; however, the net for the site is much larger depending which decimal place is rounded.  We are not being given that information when we ask for it.

We do not have a clear enough picture of what we are paying for the service.

I will be moving 2/5 of my arbitrage investment to https://bitcoin-trader.biz/results.php.  I'm putting the last 1/5 back up on coinbase as a hedge.  Please set me as a referrer if you decide likewise:  https://bitcoin-trader.biz/?ref=micers
compounded interest really adds up quickly, and the difference between even 1.4% and 1.5% are extreme. But still, i will not worry, even 0,1% interest is better then 0%.

By the way, the average interest so far is about 1.4% I have calculated that if they keep compounding interest at the same rate (1.4% per day average) that an initial investment of just 0.3 BTC would become over 40 BTC in a year. This is really insane. (also, i did not truncate like they do).

Of course at some point it will not be possible to scale up though, because of the limits of arbitrage. The more you do arbitrage the smaller the spread will be, and the smaller the spread, the smaller the profit. So i doubt they'll keep this percentage up.

Still, it's a nice gambit.

If everyone stayed invested the returns would go down over a year.   While you need a lot of assets for arbitrage trading, there is a limit which is basically how much market depth there is.   At some point the trades get to big and move the markets too much, the result is lower gains.   
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April 19, 2014, 09:19:53 AM
 #709

Just wonder anyone has successed withdrawal after the site came back on?
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April 19, 2014, 09:45:22 AM
 #710

Yup, I made a small test withdrawal, everything was fine.

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April 19, 2014, 09:46:52 AM
 #711

Just wonder anyone has successed withdrawal after the site came back on?

last withdrawal of 1.4 BTC the day before it went offline (completed 16/04/2014 15:46).
a 3.6 btc withdrawal waiting since then (initiated 16/04/2014 17:08 - btc-arbs time), still pending.

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April 19, 2014, 10:44:50 AM
 #712

Just wonder anyone has successed withdrawal after the site came back on?

last withdrawal of 1.4 BTC the day before it went offline (completed 16/04/2014 15:46).
a 3.6 btc withdrawal waiting since then (initiated 16/04/2014 17:08 - btc-arbs time), still pending.




Don't worry, they are just waiting for some new deposits to come in and then you will get paid.
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April 19, 2014, 11:12:29 AM
 #713

Just wonder anyone has successed withdrawal after the site came back on?

last withdrawal of 1.4 BTC the day before it went offline (completed 16/04/2014 15:46).
a 3.6 btc withdrawal waiting since then (initiated 16/04/2014 17:08 - btc-arbs time), still pending.




Don't worry, they are just waiting for some new deposits to come in and then you will get paid.

Good one hahaha
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April 19, 2014, 05:10:13 PM
 #714

Just wonder anyone has successed withdrawal after the site came back on?

Yes, after it came back I withdrew everything. Received it within a few hours.

I have now moved the monies to bitcointrader which seems more reliable. If you would like to try it you can use this link to help a bro out: https://bitcoin-trader.biz/?ref=Avalaxy

BTC: 1BvzHyU2WnxtVYbUZYdQ6RExwLUZTfBN1K
LTC: LfoPTEEyhdRHn8Sob8tu1iLz8AjVpvAXa4
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April 19, 2014, 05:31:39 PM
 #715

Just wonder anyone has successed withdrawal after the site came back on?

Yes, after it came back I withdrew everything. Received it within a few hours.

I have now moved the monies to bitcointrader which seems more reliable. If you would like to try it you can use this link to help a bro out: https://bitcoin-trader.biz/?ref=Avalaxy

How much did you withdraw? I withdraw 2.5 BTC but still on pending over 48 hours already, sigh.
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April 19, 2014, 05:36:20 PM
 #716

How much did you withdraw? I withdraw 2.5 BTC but still on pending over 48 hours already, sigh.

0.6 Bitcoin.

BTC: 1BvzHyU2WnxtVYbUZYdQ6RExwLUZTfBN1K
LTC: LfoPTEEyhdRHn8Sob8tu1iLz8AjVpvAXa4
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April 19, 2014, 05:42:43 PM
 #717

Let the slow pays begin! 5+ BTC total in withdraws waiting for over 2 days. Sign that btc-arbs is finally going down haha.

Buy my signature for 0.03 BTC a week, PM me if interested.
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April 19, 2014, 06:25:37 PM
 #718

Just wonder anyone has successed withdrawal after the site came back on?

Yes, after it came back I withdrew everything. Received it within a few hours.

I have now moved the monies to bitcointrader which seems more reliable. If you would like to try it you can use this link to help a bro out: https://bitcoin-trader.biz/?ref=Avalaxy

i don't really like bitcoin-trader nearly as much though because they only work 5 days a week, do not compound interest, do not allow to withdraw for 120 days and most importantly: your investment is in dollars. So you will not profit when the bitcoin price increases.
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April 19, 2014, 07:43:56 PM
 #719


i don't really like bitcoin-trader nearly as much though because they only work 5 days a week, do not compound interest, do not allow to withdraw for 120 days and most importantly: your investment is in dollars. So you will not profit when the bitcoin price increases.

Fair points. However, you can reinvest your earned dollars into new shares all the time Smiley

BTC: 1BvzHyU2WnxtVYbUZYdQ6RExwLUZTfBN1K
LTC: LfoPTEEyhdRHn8Sob8tu1iLz8AjVpvAXa4
sunny1
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April 19, 2014, 08:11:50 PM
 #720

Just wonder anyone has successed withdrawal after the site came back on?

Yes, after it came back I withdrew everything. Received it within a few hours.

I have now moved the monies to bitcointrader which seems more reliable. If you would like to try it you can use this link to help a bro out: https://bitcoin-trader.biz/?ref=Avalaxy

i don't really like bitcoin-trader nearly as much though because they only work 5 days a week, do not compound interest, do not allow to withdraw for 120 days and most importantly: your investment is in dollars. So you will not profit when the bitcoin price increases.

Everything has pros and cons. I am trading by myself during weekends and I can tell you its IMPOSIBLE to trade with any volume, since there is no depth. So btc-arbs might have found some mircacles to find large scale [volume] arbitrage opportunities on weekends - if they are not a HYIP. The fact that Bitcoin Trader is not trading on weekends is showing me that they are at least to be considered more serious.

After all 20+% a month is very fine for me - if they trade on weekends or not.
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