Something, something, something, technical analysis

[oda.krell]

Yesterday saw the break of the 1 month downtrend that took us from ~800 to 400. Broken with force, that is. What about the other, big one? Are we going to break through 720-730 as well, taking out the next longer downtrend in one go?



I'm skeptical we could reverse that fast, but current momentum sure makes it a possibility, I'd say.

What's your take on it?

[1714991374]

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[phatsphere]

it could snap back during the next days. let's wait and see what the weekend brings ...

[sgbett]

me i'd discard the outliers. that would probably upset people though



mid april proper breakout from mid 500's on strong volume. we could always spike below that at some point but i reckon we are done with the selloff on the whole and are just waiting for the reversal.

I also don't think we are going to go exponential this time round. I think its going to be a long steady climb, that is going to cause much waling and gnashing of teeth, everyone will remain scared there could be a selloff at any time, and thus people will regularly sell off 'calling the top' waiting for the reversion to the downtrend.

all pretty standard market psychology really. we'll hit 4 figures this year, but it won't be easy for people to hold during the ride up.

[oda.krell]

it could snap back during the next days. let's wait and see what the weekend brings ...

Arguments in favor of snapping back could be that we are pretty overbought right now on the daily chart. Also, Bitstamp order book doesn't really pull along (very cautious bid/ask spike yesterday, but already softening up again).

On the other hand, we had a very impressive breakout, on high volume, CMF holds up extremely well (2h and 6h), and we keep attacking 700.

I can sort of see a case where we go down somewhat hard though once the market finds out 700 isn't sustainable right now, but even if that happens, I doubt we'll spend much time below 600.

[Miz4r]

I don't think that breaking above 720 would really officially end the downtrend that started since December. That trendline you have drawn only connects two points so it's not really that reliable. I would consider the downtrend to really be finished when we break through $1000 again.

[oda.krell]

I don't think that breaking above 720 would really officially end the downtrend that started since December. That trendline you have drawn only connects two points so it's not really that reliable. I would consider the downtrend to really be finished when we break through $1000 again.

agreed. I am extremely cautious using trendlines for anything other than as, hm, "background music", for my trading. And double so if there aren't much points of contact, as you point out. Still, the (shaky) trendline I drew corresponds to the larger question: "short-to-mid term downtrend seems broken, what about the mid term one since December." I could have asked that instead, but people like pretty pictures :D


ADDENDUM: You mention the number 1000 as well, and I've seen it several times in the last days... I don't buy that it's an important milestone right now. It's similar to how people thought the area between 200 and 260 was of major importance during the last recovery. It was, but only until later into the game. And in the end, it was broken rather swiftly (with help from China, of course).


My point is, right now I see 700, then 800 as major psychological milestones to be taken out, and possible points at which the recovery can start stuttering again. Once we're battling for 1000, I don't think we will still be wondering if 400 was the bottom.

[Dragonkiller]

But... but TERA told me we couldn't go above $666? 

 

[oda.krell]

But... but TERA told me we couldn't go above $666?  :'(

 :P :D

The guy made a number of excellent calls in the past weeks, give him a break :) But yeah... I think he was right about 666 being a focal point, but he got the resistance vs. support part wrong.

[Miz4r]

ADDENDUM: You mention the number 1000 as well, and I've seen it several times in the last days... I don't buy that it's an important milestone right now. It's similar to how people thought the area between 200 and 260 was of major importance during the last recovery. It was, but only until later into the game. And in the end, it was broken rather swiftly (with help from China, of course).


My point is, right now I see 700, then 800 as major psychological milestones to be taken out, and possible points at which the recovery can start stuttering again. Once we're battling for 1000, I don't think we will still be wondering if 400 was the bottom.

Oh I think 400 was the bottom unless horrible news comes along. That 400 bottom was part of a one-month downtrend within a larger 3-month downtrend, and we have broken the first one so I don't expect us to revisit 400 again any time soon. But we could still hover between 600 and 1000 for a couple weeks or perhaps even months before we definitely break through all resistances and let go of all the bearishness we've seen since December. So personally I consider the downtrend since December over once we break through 1000 and go into 4-digit territory again. And this time it may be for good just like when we left double digits behind since August 2013, 4 months after the April crash (not counting the SR flashcrash on Stamp).

[edit]Oh, and why do I think 1000 is such an important point? Well for one it's a psychological barrier, and besides that we've bounced our head firmly against 1000 twice since December now, failing to penetrate it.[/edit]

[Ibian]

My monies won't hit the exchange until tomorrow, so we will reach at least 750 during the night.

[antimattercrusader]

My monies won't hit the exchange until tomorrow, so we will reach at least 750 during the night.

LOL that is my luck. By time my toliet paper (fiat) arrives, BTC will be 1500. Then i'll buy and it will return to 500s. Gotta love my luck.

Coinbase seems to credit instantly, which is nice. It's helped with that. Now I'm not sure how luck will screw me over. Perhaps the clawback issue will be the 6-cell maglite in the ass of life?

[MAbtc]

Never saw 5-wave decline. More and more leaning towards something like this:



Bounce and close above momental channel ~ 620-630 and I lean towards trend reversal. But the bull case is on shaky footing as is.

Edit: Divergences.

[TERA]

I see that bear services have been requested here. While I have been bullish lately, I will be glad to make a good old bear chart

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

Love "fool's trend line".

Can you elaborate on "improper RSI" for a recovery? MACD seemed OK, imho, though.

[BitApparel]

downtrend already broken?  that is absolutely ludicrous

[TERA]

Love "fool's trend line".

Can you elaborate on "improper RSI" for a recovery? MACD seemed OK, imho, though.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=489756.0

[oda.krell]

downtrend already broken?  that is absolutely ludicrous

*February* downtrend. Almost certainly, yes. Whether the bigger downtrend is about to reverse or not is the open question IMO.

[Sindelar1938]

I think the mkt will snap back really hard next week

[Rawted]

We will most likely hover between 500-700 during March.

[oda.krell]

Short-term update.

Bullish pennant, anyone? (EDIT: "bullish", because continuation of previous upwards move predicted by this pattern)



Guess we'll see within the coming days. If we continue the sideways dance a bit longer, I see a good chance we're going to continue to go up.

At the same time, there seems to be some real fear in the air that the latest upwards move was a "forced" attempt to prematurely end the consolidation, so a major individual move (i.e. a whale dump or buy) could relatively easily break the balance early.