Something, something, something, technical analysis

[derpinheimer]

How do you determine that is a bullish pennant rather than bearish?

I would have to say I also believe the push up was manipulated. The way the buys went thru was so similar the entire rally. Buy wall -> move up -> get sold in to. Five or more times? So about 6m USD?

Now we havent seen another whale, so, unless random people come with fiat and decide its time to go up again, I cant see how we will go anywhere but down..

I sure hope it continues up though.

[oda.krell]

How do you determine that is a bullish pennant rather than bearish?

I would have to say I also believe the push up was manipulated. The way the buys went thru was so similar the entire rally. Buy wall -> move up -> get sold in to. Five or more times? So about 6m USD?

Now we havent seen another whale, so, unless random people come with fiat and decide its time to go up again, I cant see how we will go anywhere but down..

I sure hope it continues up though.

It's defined to be a continuation pattern, and since the preceding move (on the same time frame) was very clearly up, it's bullish.

I have argue before in one of Mat's threads that, even though I personally also jumped on the big upwards move rather late, I don't see it as (mainly) manipulation, but rather built up buying pressure being released after some (whale, maybe) first mover got things in motion*. I'm not sure enough of this myself however to want to convince others of this, so you own interpretation is as good as mine.


* I used an analogy of a guy lighting a match in a room full of gun powder. It'd be odd to me to call the resulting explosion the result of "lighting a match", without attributing it to the stockpile of gunpowder at least as much.

[podyx]

I think we are going up purely based on the bearish sentiment and the past april crash pattern alone

The price seem to come and sneak up when u least expect it

[segeln]

Short-term update.
Bullish pennant, anyone? (EDIT: "bullish", because continuation of previous upwards move predicted by this pattern)

I am fond of those short-term and shortsighted updates.
Next will be a candlestick Minute time Intervall update
Yo Sen (bullish) und In Sen (bearish)
 Hammer (bullish) und Hanging Man (bearish)

[oda.krell]

I am fond of those short-term and shortsighted updates.
Next will be a candlestick Minute time Intervall update
Yo Sen (bullish) und In Sen (bearish)
 Hammer (bullish) und Hanging Man (bearish)

Thank you for your valuable critique.

Seriously though, if a daily time frame (based on 15min candles for precision) and the question whether it'll resolve upwards or downwards is too short-termy for your taste, you're probably in the wrong forum and/or currency-slash-investment.

[MatTheCat]

But... but TERA told me we couldn't go above $666? 

 

We would still be in the $500's if it weren't for those rounds of 3K strong buy-in walls.

Nobody can account for this sort of erratic action from a very deep pocket source that came right in out of few. Since Monday, market has went back to condition it was in. No volume  except traders and exchange bots, slowly grinding down until some 'event' happens to kick its arse in one direction or the other.

[oda.krell]

But... but TERA told me we couldn't go above $666? 

 

We would still be in the $500's if it weren't for those rounds of 3K strong buy-in walls.

Nobody can account for this sort of erratic action from a very deep pocket source that came right in out of few. Since Monday, market has went back to condition it was in. No volume  except traders and exchange bots, slowly grinding down until some 'event' happens to kick its arse in one direction or the other.

Since you keep harping on about that point, I shall do the same about mine: That "whale" didn't do anything that wouldn't have happened anyway. He was just slightly faster than the big pile of smaller traders.

I've already used (and overused) the "match blowing up a room full of gunpowder" analogy, so here's another one: go back 5 days and ask in here "is the bottom in, yes or no?". You know the answer to that hypothetical question as well as I do: A mumbly "yes, but probably we're still not going up yet". Well, guess what -- once a sufficient number of people believe the bottom is in, there's only one way left: up.

That it happened faster and more violently than expected is thanks to our friendly whale, but I don't see a reason to question the direction we're in altogether as a result.

[EvilPanda]

But... but TERA told me we couldn't go above $666? 

 

We would still be in the $500's if it weren't for those rounds of 3K strong buy-in walls.

We would be in the $700's if it weren't for that incompetent Karpeles - fat thief.

[segeln]

I am fond of those short-term and shortsighted updates.
Next will be a candlestick Minute time Intervall update
Yo Sen (bullish) und In Sen (bearish)
 Hammer (bullish) und Hanging Man (bearish)

Seriously though, if a daily time frame (based on 15min candles for precision) and the question whether it'll resolve upwards or downwards is too short-termy for your taste, you're probably in the wrong forum and/or currency-slash-investment.

short term and short sighted: to miss the forest for the trees

[porcupine87]

Noone seems to be intereted. But we had the exact same pattern when we hit the 600$ one week ago. Because the rise was so quickly, there war not resistence at 600$. After correction the resistence at 600$ was building up and it was hard to beat. How did we come to the 700$? Did we come over 700$? Was happend next?

[MatTheCat]

Well, guess what -- once a sufficient number of people believe the bottom is in, there's only one way left: up.

That it happened faster and more violently than expected is thanks to our friendly whale, but I don't see a reason to question the direction we're in altogether as a result.

Well guess what, a lot of people believed that lower lows were around the corner. I wasn't one of them but did believe in a much stronger correction than to just $535. The market was not moving. Holders of Bitcoin unwilling to sell at mid $500s, buyers unwilling to buy. If Bitcoin isn't going to increase in value, then it will be sold as most people have no use for it other than as a means of wealth accumulation. As things turned out, the whale came out of knowhere and triggered a mad buying surge and I got my ass spanked with short sell that I came out of much too late.....Still had great profiting opportunity on surge North....but managed to cut my own throat to the tune of 50% less profit on that one as well. I am a shite trader. I need to get a good buying point and just fkn hold.

Now we are back where we were in terms of market stagnation, except a a whole $100 higher up the ladder. Now we don't need to correct back to upper $400's lower $500s, but upper $500's /lower $600's. Either that or have another whale come to market.

[bitcoinlitcoinbtcltc]

Hey,

I don't think this is a 'legitimate' uptrend.
I haven't been following the other exchanges closely except for BTC-e, but I have compared the buy and sell orders.
When LTC was rising, and even now, the buy orders didn't increase. They DECREASED. If we were in an uptrend, more people would have bought, but it seems people cancelled their buy orders to wait it out.

On the other hand, the sell orders DID increase. At the moment, sell orders for LTC are around 11-12 million, while the buy orders are around 5 million. People will sell faster than that they will buy.

The reason for the rise?

LTC: BTC China adding Litecoin. Why this caused a rise, I don't know. Everyone was shouting ''China doesn't matter anymore'' (after the ban). But it suddenly matters again when it is about ''positive crypto news'' ? The LTC market is heavily manipulated at the moment.

Bitcoin probably rose because of Blockchain's twitter message; ''huge news coming, exciting weekend.''

Turned out, the news wasn't that exciting at all.

I don't think we have reversed yet, and to be honest, it doesn't seem like we will REALLY reverse anytime soon.

But it is an unpredictable market, so I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Cryptotrading is, after all, influenced by a few whales. What we, as individual ''small'' traders do, doesn't really matter.

[Yololintian]

I'm uneasy about those ask walls on BFX totaling like 10k+ btc from $693-705...

[SkRRJyTC]

I'm uneasy about those ask walls on BFX totaling like 10k+ btc from $693-705...

I believe anyone can make a wall like that on BFX

[sgbett]

...there seems to be some real fear in the air that the latest upwards move was ....

...and thus it probably wasn't.

[MAbtc]

I'm uneasy about those ask walls on BFX totaling like 10k+ btc from $693-705...

LOL Bitfinex. Almost 14k to 705.

Just shorts trying to scare the market down and keep BFX from driving Stamp up. What I'd like to know is if the 700 walls are real on Stamp. Short 690-695 / Stop 703 looks pretty tasty right now. But it might just get yanked and lose me a quick $1k (+ slippage when all the BFX walls get yanked)...

Either way, starting to feel like we need to push up a bit before any break to the downside. No one selling into support at these levels. But on a failed retest to the upside? $13 million in BFX longs and all the bagholders from $700+ on the 3/3 spike may start feeling the squeeze then.

It's a roller coaster!

[googlemaster1]

You have a lot of people in this for the long haul, and a lot of people who look at "Bitcoin crashing" as a sale on bitcoin.  I for one put two huge buy orders in around the $430 mark and was sitting in front of my computer on the spike to 710.  Did I sell?  No, because I rather hold BTC than fiat, and hopefully more and more people will feel the same way. 

In order for a true trend reversal people have got to WANT bitcoin; want to spend it, want to hold it, want to use it, and not use it in order to score FIAT off of the trading system.  When I trade on exchanges, I trade to get BTC, I could care less about what my FIAT net worth is at the end of the day, although the current rate of adoption/demand seems to be barely keeping pace with the trickling supply that gets put into the system.  (most larger mining companies are only selling what they need to in order to survive)

[TERA]

You have a lot of people in this for the long haul, and a lot of people who look at "Bitcoin crashing" as a sale on bitcoin.  I for one put two huge buy orders in around the $430 mark and was sitting in front of my computer on the spike to 710.  Did I sell?  No, because I rather hold BTC than fiat, and hopefully more and more people will feel the same way.  

During bull markets when longer technical indicators start to reverse, I switch my selling strategy. Instead of "selling for fiat" and holding fiat for a prolonged amount of time, I only do very quick "short trades" immediately after spikes when it is clearly overbought, or if some bad news comes out (like silk road) and it's clearly going to spike down. I get in and out in 5 minutes to an hour and don't leave the charts till I am back in. So for example during the spike the other day to $710, I quickly "shorted" (sold and rebought) ,my bitcoins from 710 to 670 and then again from 700 to 650, with about 5-15 minutes in each trade, increasing my coins by about 15%. Then once I'm back in, that's it, I don't sell again. I don't speculate that maybe it will also go from 650 to 610. Sure that might happen and I be "down" for a little while when it goes from 650 to 610 but that's simply too unpredictable, slow, and risky of a thing to speculate on, when I can do just fine by grabbing low hanging fruit instead.

[bassclef]

My take (I'm new, be kind)...

6 hour chart to put the February downtrend into perspective. Reverse head & shoulders and subsequent reversal as predicted by EMA cluster just below the neckline. The bullish breakout didn't bounce off the neckline as support, confirming its strength.

Now we approach the 120 day EMA, which we have been trading underneath since early February. This is the longest period of time that we've traded below it, no doubt due to the loss in confidence from Gox. We are at a critical point and just about to move above it.

My vote is for up.

[TERA]

It's too early to go up though. It should take 2 weeks to break the 3 month downtrend. It would look REALLY akward on the chart if went up right now.