Something, something, something, technical analysis

[Vigil]

It's too early to go up though. It should take 2 weeks to break the 3 month downtrend. It would look REALLY akward on the chart if went up right now.

Look at the one-day chart though... is that just going to make a hard turn the other direction? It looks like it is headed upward.

[TERA]

To form a proper base for an upward breakout from the 3 month downtrend, it should do something like this, as it did last year.


(12 hour chart)

We're talking about THE breakout of the 2014 consolidation into the rally for the next bubble. This doesn't just happen off the cuff with a 3 day retracement after a 75% rise from the bottom which was a mere week ago.

[Yololintian]

It's too early to go up though. It should take 2 weeks to break the 3 month downtrend. It would look REALLY akward on the chart if went up right now.

It already does look really awkward with the rise on 3/3 initiated by the whale that wanted 5k btc.

[theonewhowaskazu]

Remember that one big green bar that happened a couple of days ago? The one from below 600 to a high of over 700? We're going to need to retrace to the bottom of that (or at least the open) before we can break out. This process will probably take 1-2 weeks. Thats not to say we couldn't see $70X for a period of time, but it will be like all the other $70X booms thus far: Short lived. Until other's get to re-confirm that the whale that got us from sub $600 to $700 was correct, that is. After that correction, its to the moon.

[TERA]

It's too early to go up though. It should take 2 weeks to break the 3 month downtrend. It would look REALLY akward on the chart if went up right now.

It already does look really awkward with the rise on 3/3 initiated by the whale that wanted 5k btc.

The quick rise is due to the quick fall. I didn't like it at first but now I realize it was legit. Everything is symmetrical, and the rise out of the next downtrend should be symmetrical too. Since it was a longer fall, it will be a longer rise.

[Yololintian]

It's too early to go up though. It should take 2 weeks to break the 3 month downtrend. It would look REALLY akward on the chart if went up right now.

It already does look really awkward with the rise on 3/3 initiated by the whale that wanted 5k btc.

The quick rise is due to the quick fall. I didn't like it at first but now I realize it was legit. Everything is symmetrical, and the rise out of the next downtrend should be symmetrical too. Since it was a longer fall, it will be a longer rise.

I also can't see anything happening too fast from this point. But I don't think the quick rise was due to the quick fall at all. The quick fall to 400 was succeeded by a quick rise to 550s; the unusual $100+ increase in a few hours on 3/3 was not symmetric to anything and was pretty unusual.

[googlemaster1]

It's too early to go up though. It should take 2 weeks to break the 3 month downtrend. It would look REALLY akward on the chart if went up right now.

It already does look really awkward with the rise on 3/3 initiated by the whale that wanted 5k btc.

The quick rise is due to the quick fall. I didn't like it at first but now I realize it was legit. Everything is symmetrical, and the rise out of the next downtrend should be symmetrical too. Since it was a longer fall, it will be a longer rise.

I also can't see anything happening too fast from this point. But I don't think the quick rise was due to the quick fall at all. The quick fall to 400 was succeeded by a quick rise to 550s; the unusual $100+ increase in a few hours on 3/3 was not symmetric to anything and was pretty unusual.

I feel like the BTC Market has to be a little different than standard graph reading.  When you take into account trading hours are 24/7, what about a general aggregate timeframe when whales are awake?  What about a savvy investor just waiting to pounce?  The return to 550 after a 400 tap didn't surprise me at all.  There have always been huge 30% rebounds after testing the bottom in these flash crashes.  Most everyone is willing to buy a bitcoin at 4xx, but at lot of us were trying to catch the bottom of the trampoline, as shown with previous flash crashes, they are followed by a rebound with the same velocity.  See Dec. 17 Crash for example.

[TERA]

Here's another way to analyze the resistance we need to break before the bear market is officially over - this purple shit.

[porcupine87]

Here's another way to analyze the resistance we need to break before the bear market is officially over - this purple shit.

What are these line? I am interested in the red line  
So the down trend was over in August?

I want to learn TA, ok. But which period time do I use? Take the weekly chart on bitcoinwisdom, and you will see, we are in an up trend since Jan13. Take the 12h period and we are already in an up trend since a few days.
This seems to be just a matter, what period interval I take...

[TERA]

That's the ichimoku cloud on the 1 day timeframe. However, it's just a passing thought and I'm not sure if it's actually significant. The indicator I'm actually using before I increase to max position is the 3 day MACD.

[Ibian]

Ichimoku sounds like some pagan god. Can't believe that's an actual trader term.

[segeln]

http://www.godmode-trader.de/analyse/bitcoins-totgesagte-leben-laenger,3679751
In dieser charttechnischen Besprechung betrachten wir nun den Kurs der Bitcoins an der Börse Bitstamp. Dort konnte sich der Kurs im Februar oberhalb von 500 $ stabilisieren, ein Ausbruchsversuch nach unten hin wurde sofort wieder aufgefangen. In dieser Woche kommt Kaufdruck auf, die Preise werden bis an die primäre Abwärtstrendlinie seit November hinaufgezogen. Mit dem Februartief am Unterstützungsbereich bei 360 - 400 $ wurde das Dezembertief erfolgreich getestet, womit die komplette Seitwärtskorrektur seit November enden könnte. Für klare Signale fehlt aber noch ein letzter Impuls: Erst ein nachhaltiger Anstieg über 760 $ würde weiter steigende Kurse bis 1.150 - 1.200 und später ca. 2.200 $ zulassen.

Kippt die Stimmung wieder mit Kursen signifikant unterhalb von 490 $ per Tagesschluss, sollte ein weiterer Test des Unterstützungsbereichs bei 360 - 400 $ eingeplant werden. Unterhalb davon liegt bei 250 - 270 $ der nächste Auffangbereich für Kursrücksetzer.


http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:ichimoku_cloud

[Dalmar]

^ Why are you posting in German on an international forum?

[TERA]

Because there's nothing he could say in English to convince me that we're just suddenly going to break out right now and have a single rally all the way to ATH and beyond in less than a month. "godmode trader" has spoken.

[oda.krell]

To form a proper base for an upward breakout from the 3 month downtrend, it should do something like this, as it did last year.

[...]
(12 hour chart)

We're talking about THE breakout of the 2014 consolidation into the rally for the next bubble. This doesn't just happen off the cuff with a 3 day retracement after a 75% rise from the bottom which was a mere week ago.

I'm not that sure about the bolded part. If your expectations about what a possible breakout would have to look like are based on the assumption that the breakout would be followed (more or less) by the next rally phase (EDIT: towards a new ATH) , I don't know if I see that assumption to be all that certain.

There continues to be a worrying picture in my head where we are now in the stage where we were in early May 2013: after the *first*, not the *last* post-ATH bearish/correctional curve. I'll see if I can whip up a picture of what I mean later today.

Anyway: if that's the case, and we're playing out the April 2013 correction, but slowed by a factor of ~2, then to me it'd make sense to "break out" now without a more solid base/retest of lower levels.

[TERA]

To form a proper base for an upward breakout from the 3 month downtrend, it should do something like this, as it did last year.

[...]
(12 hour chart)

We're talking about THE breakout of the 2014 consolidation into the rally for the next bubble. This doesn't just happen off the cuff with a 3 day retracement after a 75% rise from the bottom which was a mere week ago.

I'm not that sure about the bolded part. If your expectations about what a possible breakout would have to look like are based on the assumption that the breakout would be followed (more or less) by the next rally phase (EDIT: towards a new ATH) , I don't know if I see that assumption to be all that certain.

There continues to be a worrying picture in my head where we are now in the stage where we were in early May 2013: after the *first*, not the *last* post-ATH bearish/correctional curve. I'll see if I can whip up a picture of what I mean later today.

Anyway: if that's the case, and we're playing out the April 2013 correction, but slowed by a factor of ~2, then to me it'd make sense to "break out" now without a more solid base/retest of lower levels.

If you look at page 1 of this thread, then I have posted a chart about just this.

[oda.krell]

To form a proper base for an upward breakout from the 3 month downtrend, it should do something like this, as it did last year.

[...]
(12 hour chart)

We're talking about THE breakout of the 2014 consolidation into the rally for the next bubble. This doesn't just happen off the cuff with a 3 day retracement after a 75% rise from the bottom which was a mere week ago.

I'm not that sure about the bolded part. If your expectations about what a possible breakout would have to look like are based on the assumption that the breakout would be followed (more or less) by the next rally phase (EDIT: towards a new ATH) , I don't know if I see that assumption to be all that certain.

There continues to be a worrying picture in my head where we are now in the stage where we were in early May 2013: after the *first*, not the *last* post-ATH bearish/correctional curve. I'll see if I can whip up a picture of what I mean later today.

Anyway: if that's the case, and we're playing out the April 2013 correction, but slowed by a factor of ~2, then to me it'd make sense to "break out" now without a more solid base/retest of lower levels.

If you look at page 1 of this thread, then I have posted a chart about just this.

Haha, I see what you're getting at with that chart now. Sorry, but when I first saw it I couldn't make any sense of it, bit too chaotic with the squiggles and stuff. Anyway, I'm not claiming the idea is mine, or even that new. For exampple, it's similar to what masterluc said pretty much immediately after the December double top. In his case, it was (to my knowledge) based on counts following EW theory, which I'm pretty skeptical about, but in either case, it looks like it's a thought a number of us have in their head. Not sure it'll play out like that though: for instance, Fibonacci levels paint a very different picture (we are now where we were at the peak of the last corrective wave in 2013). 

[TERA]

I have my doubts about february being "final capitulation", because it was short, was all panic and event/news driven, and ended with a flash and bang - a VERY sharp recovery. This was very much like a "second drop" or the drop to 78 in april. A final capitulation or "third drop", on the other hand, should be very slow, hopeless, not news-driven, and slowly scoop into and dig its way out of a support level with a very low RSI and several consecutive days of high volume.

[MatTheCat]

Because there's nothing he could say in English to convince me that we're just suddenly going to break out right now and have a single rally all the way to ATH and beyond in less than a month. "godmode trader" has spoken.

But godmode trader said that we might break out above $760, in which case prices upwards of $1100 etc were possible.......but if we broke below $490, then we could go down as far as $200s.

This isn't god mode trading. This is drawing lines on a fucking graph and saying the points where major trendlines hit.

The quick rise is due to the quick fall. I didn't like it at first but now I realize it was legit. Everything is symmetrical, and the rise out of the next downtrend should be symmetrical too. Since it was a longer fall, it will be a longer rise.

Cmon man. Did you see how it happened? We are talking some individual placing 3K strong buy-in tranches right at spot price on Stamp here, resulting in panic buy-ins jumping in front of him, resulting in him moving his bid up further, and so on. This was a massive panic buy-in from likely from one source, that triggered a market stampede.

I have my doubts about february being "final capitulation", because it was short, was all panic and event/news driven, and ended with a flash and bang - a VERY sharp recovery. This was very much like a "second drop" or the drop to 78 in april. A final capitulation or "third drop", on the other hand, should be very slow, hopeless, not news-driven, and slowly scoop into and dig its way out of a support level with a very low RSI and several consecutive days of high volume.

I also think we will see lower lows than $400. Just not quite yet.

With all the negative publicity and the known stolen coin hoardes, saving for capital flight from an economic crisis, there will be a general lack of upward pressure in Bitcoin with every opportunity for massive dumps (stolen coins) to spring out of knowhere.

So Bitcoiners, keep your fingers crossed for war, economic meltdown (but only in silly little countries that don't matter otherwise our beloved ponzi scheme is toast), and human misery!

[TERA]

* tera enters trading god-mode. buys at $200 and sells at $2500 within one month *