Brian123321's Sports Betting Picks | All Sports | Full Tracking Inside

[brian123321]

So i have some good news and i have some bad news.

The bad news is that it looks like i am only have one more system play in college basketball this year.  It doesnt look like i will have any plays tomorrow and as of now i only have one play on Friday which could become a no play.  There are still a couple games Friday that do not have lines up yet so maybe ill get lucky and one of those will also fall into the system.

The good news is this.  Since Friday could very well be my last day for system plays in college basketball this season i am not going to charge for it.  Ill post it tomorrow night or Friday morning for free.

Since there is a chance i could lose the play i would not be able to keep up with my end of the deal of continuing to post plays until i get the purchases back above 50%, because of this i will not charge for any plays i end up having.

Once the tournament is over ill probably gone for a while, probably about a month or so and be back with my baseball plays.  My baseball system is fairly simple to figure and i would not be surprised if everyone here didnt figure it out quickly.

Until then good luck with everyones bets!  It has been a fun last month of the season!

[justbc]

Sorry to hear that you're out of plays, and sorry I didn't start following sooner!

I myself was wondering what the system was, since you're always betting underdogs with the points. It's got to be another clue that you don't have more plays during the tournament...

Maybe when I have more time I'll try to reverse-engineer the system.

Til then, thanks, and great job last night!

[brian123321]

I have no system plays today but there are two games i am going to be playing.

Be warned that i am using a different method coming up with these two plays that has not been back tracked and I WONT be counting these games to my record nor will i be putting them on my tracking sheet.

I am simply posting these because these are the two games i am playing today.

BYU +5
Cincy -3

Good luck everyone!

[alabamafan1]

I have no system plays today but there are two games i am going to be playing.

Be warned that i am using a different method coming up with these two plays that has not been back tracked and I WONT be counting these games to my record nor will i be putting them on my tracking sheet.

I am simply posting these because these are the two games i am playing today.

BYU +5
Cincy -3

Good luck everyone!

Just wanted to apologize for way I acted the other day. Your picks are doing extremely well and you obviously are not just someone on a hot streak. Wonder how sophisticated your systems are honestly. I follow a couple like Walco's gold on SBR and have well tailing. Sorry again and I'll probably buy some of your picks next season or during baseball if we see the same results as now. Good luck with your plays, and don't know what you think of this but biggest upset in my bracket I have is VCU > Florida. Go Louisville though for the whole thing.

[brian123321]

I have no system plays today but there are two games i am going to be playing.

Be warned that i am using a different method coming up with these two plays that has not been back tracked and I WONT be counting these games to my record nor will i be putting them on my tracking sheet.

I am simply posting these because these are the two games i am playing today.

BYU +5
Cincy -3

Good luck everyone!

Just wanted to apologize for way I acted the other day. Your picks are doing extremely well and you obviously are not just someone on a hot streak. Wonder how sophisticated your systems are honestly. I follow a couple like Walco's gold on SBR and have well tailing. Sorry again and I'll probably buy some of your picks next season or during baseball if we see the same results as now. Good luck with your plays, and don't know what you think of this but biggest upset in my bracket I have is VCU > Florida. Go Louisville though for the whole thing.

I also have florida being upset but i have them being upset by pittsburgh in the second round.  I have Arizona going all the way.  Kansas, Arizona, Virginia, Kentucky in final 4.

[brian123321]

I also have Dayton upsetting Ohio State.  Still a ton of playing time in this game though.  Hopefully the can keep the lead and win this game.

[brian123321]

All my tourny upets are as follows:

1st Round
Dayton over Ohio State
BYU over Oregon
Pittsburgh over Colorado (though not technically an upset)
Stanford over New Mexico
Tennessee Over UMass
Kentucky Over Kansas St

2nd Round
Pittsburgh Over Florida
Texas Over Michigan
Tennessee Over Duke
Kentucky Over Wichita St
Baylor Over Creighton

3rd Round
Kentucky Over Louisville

4th Round
Kansas Over Virginia

Final
Kansas v Arizona

Arizona winning.

[alabamafan1]

Curious, how have you done with your non-system plays? Have you done any tracking or idea of how you've done on your own thoughts and not system based?

[brian123321]

Curious, how have you done with your non-system plays? Have you done any tracking or idea of how you've done on your own thoughts and not system based?

Honestly i have no idea.  The two plays i posted incorporate some of things i look at for my system plays but are missing some things as well.  I only put a small amount on each play bc i have no tracking history for this kind of a play.

[brian123321]

All my tourny upets are as follows:

1st Round
Dayton over Ohio State
BYU over Oregon
Pittsburgh over Colorado (though not technically an upset)
Stanford over New Mexico
Tennessee Over UMass
Kentucky Over Kansas St

2nd Round
Pittsburgh Over Florida
Texas Over Michigan
Tennessee Over Duke
Kentucky Over Wichita St
Baylor Over Creighton

3rd Round
Kentucky Over Louisville

4th Round
Kansas Over Virginia

Final
Kansas v Arizona

Arizona winning.

One upset down! Only a ton to go . . . .

[alabamafan1]

All my tourny upets are as follows:

1st Round
Dayton over Ohio State
BYU over Oregon
Pittsburgh over Colorado (though not technically an upset)
Stanford over New Mexico
Tennessee Over UMass
Kentucky Over Kansas St

2nd Round
Pittsburgh Over Florida
Texas Over Michigan
Tennessee Over Duke
Kentucky Over Wichita St
Baylor Over Creighton

3rd Round
Kentucky Over Louisville

4th Round
Kansas Over Virginia

Final
Kansas v Arizona

Arizona winning.

One upset down! Only a ton to go . . . .

Lucky you man, only 63 more games and you win a billion dollars! (if you entered that). Had Ohio State making sweet 16 and going no further. Bad start for me.

[brian123321]

Reminded myself of why I stick to my system plays.

[brian123321]

All my tourny upets are as follows:

1st Round
Dayton over Ohio State
BYU over Oregon
Pittsburgh over Colorado (though not technically an upset)
Stanford over New Mexico
Tennessee Over UMass
Kentucky Over Kansas St

2nd Round
Pittsburgh Over Florida
Texas Over Michigan
Tennessee Over Duke
Kentucky Over Wichita St
Baylor Over Creighton

3rd Round
Kentucky Over Louisville

4th Round
Kansas Over Virginia

Final
Kansas v Arizona

Arizona winning.

[alabamafan1]

Took NC state for a strong play, especially 1st half. Looking good so far. Is the game on Friday you mentioned before looking to be a system play?

[brian123321]

Took NC state for a strong play, especially 1st half. Looking good so far. Is the game on Friday you mentioned before looking to be a system play?

It was a system play but the line has sense moved to make it a no play so most likely will not have any plays tomorrow.

[brian123321]

March 21

I thought i was not going to have any system plays for Friday but i was wrong. I had originally calculated the spread wrong.  I went back through all the games and i actually have 2 system plays.

3pm EST

LA Lafayette +14 (+13.5)

930pm EST

Robert Morris +9 (+8.5)


Again i will explain the numbers in the parentheses because they are very important numbers.

It does not make any sense to lock these plays in right now because these plays could easily become no plays by the time of tip off.  I have explained this multiple times in this thread but i will explain it again.  The system i created was backtracked using the closing lines on covers.  Therefore the closing line on covers is what decides what is a play and what is not a play.

For example, lets take the La Lafayette play above.  The line right now is +14.  The line in parentheses shows what the line has to be at or above come about 30 minutes to tip off on covers (http://scores.covers.com/college-basketball-scores-matchups.aspx).  The LA Lafayette game is at 3pm tomorrow.  If at 2:30pm the line on covers is +13 then the game would be a no play.  If the line on covers was +13.5 or higher the game would be a play.  I can not stress this enough . . . . It does NOT MATTER if you can lock the play in at +14 right now.  It only matters what the closing line is on covers.  That is what decides if a game is a play or a no play.

If you have any questions about this please ask them.  I will be around for a little while tonight and i will be around a little while tomorrow before the game.

I am also going to go back tomorrow and double check the numbers tomorrow morning.  There will be some updated stats come tomorrow and i need to see if those will make a difference in either of these games.  I dont think they will but its always better to be on the safe side.

As always i will update this thread tomorrow when i lock in the plays.


Good Luck!

[alabamafan1]

March 21

I thought i was not going to have any system plays for Friday but i was wrong. I had originally calculated the spread wrong.  I went back through all the games and i actually have 2 system plays.

3pm EST

LA Lafayette +14 (+13.5)

930pm EST

Robert Morris +9 (+8.5)


Again i will explain the numbers in the parentheses because they are very important numbers.

It does not make any sense to lock these plays in right now because these plays could easily become no plays by the time of tip off.  I have explained this multiple times in this thread but i will explain it again.  The system i created was backtracked using the closing lines on covers.  Therefore the closing line on covers is what decides what is a play and what is not a play.

For example, lets take the La Lafayette play above.  The line right now is +14.  The line in parentheses shows what the line has to be at or above come about 30 minutes to tip off on covers (http://scores.covers.com/college-basketball-scores-matchups.aspx).  The LA Lafayette game is at 3pm tomorrow.  If at 2:30pm the line on covers is +13 then the game would be a no play.  If the line on covers was +13.5 or higher the game would be a play.  I can not stress this enough . . . . It does NOT MATTER if you can lock the play in at +14 right now.  It only matters what the closing line is on covers.  That is what decides if a game is a play or a no play.

If you have any questions about this please ask them.  I will be around for a little while tonight and i will be around a little while tomorrow before the game.

I am also going to go back tomorrow and double check the numbers tomorrow morning.  There will be some updated stats come tomorrow and i need to see if those will make a difference in either of these games.  I dont think they will but its always better to be on the safe side.

As always i will update this thread tomorrow when i lock in the plays.


Good Luck!

I have a question as to why the closing line matters so much. The system looks for value in plays as all systems do. If you see LA Lafayette at +14 now and your system says +13.5 or higher + wise is +EV why wouldn't you book it now? Why does the closing line matter so much? Does the system not like when the public is heavy on the side you are on? Don't want you to discuss your system obviously but if you could share why the closing line matters so much for your system when your system would say +14 right now would have a lot of value for Lafayette.

Going to tail both plays though regardless, hopefully you go 2-0 to finish the season. Hopefully you bet a hundred or couple hundred worth too with your system bets. Always wondered if your betting twenty bills, hundreds, or even thousands per bet because your ROI is incredibly high.

[brian123321]

March 21

I thought i was not going to have any system plays for Friday but i was wrong. I had originally calculated the spread wrong.  I went back through all the games and i actually have 2 system plays.

3pm EST

LA Lafayette +14 (+13.5)

930pm EST

Robert Morris +9 (+8.5)


Again i will explain the numbers in the parentheses because they are very important numbers.

It does not make any sense to lock these plays in right now because these plays could easily become no plays by the time of tip off.  I have explained this multiple times in this thread but i will explain it again.  The system i created was backtracked using the closing lines on covers.  Therefore the closing line on covers is what decides what is a play and what is not a play.

For example, lets take the La Lafayette play above.  The line right now is +14.  The line in parentheses shows what the line has to be at or above come about 30 minutes to tip off on covers (http://scores.covers.com/college-basketball-scores-matchups.aspx).  The LA Lafayette game is at 3pm tomorrow.  If at 2:30pm the line on covers is +13 then the game would be a no play.  If the line on covers was +13.5 or higher the game would be a play.  I can not stress this enough . . . . It does NOT MATTER if you can lock the play in at +14 right now.  It only matters what the closing line is on covers.  That is what decides if a game is a play or a no play.

If you have any questions about this please ask them.  I will be around for a little while tonight and i will be around a little while tomorrow before the game.

I am also going to go back tomorrow and double check the numbers tomorrow morning.  There will be some updated stats come tomorrow and i need to see if those will make a difference in either of these games.  I dont think they will but its always better to be on the safe side.

As always i will update this thread tomorrow when i lock in the plays.


Good Luck!

I have a question as to why the closing line matters so much. The system looks for value in plays as all systems do. If you see LA Lafayette at +14 now and your system says +13.5 or higher + wise is +EV why wouldn't you book it now? Why does the closing line matter so much? Does the system not like when the public is heavy on the side you are on? Don't want you to discuss your system obviously but if you could share why the closing line matters so much for your system when your system would say +14 right now would have a lot of value for Lafayette.

Going to tail both plays though regardless, hopefully you go 2-0 to finish the season. Hopefully you bet a hundred or couple hundred worth too with your system bets. Always wondered if your betting twenty bills, hundreds, or even thousands per bet because your ROI is incredibly high.

The reasoning of the closing line is because I used the closing lines when back tracking the system.  Basically i have a proven track record using those lines.  For example, when backtracking since i am using the closing lines the situation like the example above could have happened and most likely did happen tons of times.  However, i do not know what that record is because if the closing line did not match up i never went back to see if the line had moved from playable line earlier in the day.  Because i have no record of this i am not willing to "gamble" and assume that since it is a better line it means that i would make the play.

I dont know if that makes any sense but i also do not how to describe it any better.

When backtracking i used the closing lines so if a closing line did not match up i moved on.  I dont know if earlier in the day that line had actually been a playable line or not.  If it was i dont know if i would have won or lost because i did not track it because the closing line was a no play line.

[alabamafan1]

Ah, you have no records of opening or throughout-the-day lines so for back testing and current testing as you go to stay precise with how you collected your system information you have to use only the closing line. Gotcha, makes sense now.

[brian123321]

Furthermore when im developing a system, backtracking it and repeating over and over and over again until i find the right combination of numbers that make sense and provide consistent winners it takes too long go through the line movements of every single game to see if the line had been at a certain point at some time since it open until it closed that would have made it a play and if it did get to that point whether it would have won or lost.

For example, right now, i am currently in the process of recreating my NCAAF strategy.  I have already put in probably a total of 24 hours into developing a new system and have yet to get it right.  A lot of that time is spent going back and backtracking every game over the season to see how the system would have done last year and the year before that and sometimes the year before so that i can be sure that it is an actual winning system and can constantly pick winners year after year.  It would take me even more time if i had to look at the line movements of every game also.  It is not something i am willing to do, it just takes way to much time.

One thing i did create this year for the basketball season was a program that would load up a CSV full of stats of every team that i update daily so that i can now just type in the names of both teams playing and have it spit out the scores of each team.  This is something i used to do by hand.  I would have a number of tabs open for the stats of both teams i was comparing and go through each tab entering the numbers into a spreadsheet that would then calculate the spread.  This has saved me a ton of time and after seeing how incredibly useful it was i used the same code to write one up for my football calculations.  So that in itself already saves me a ton of time when backtracking systems.  The main time suck now is developing the systems and then going back through every single game for the past few years to make sure it works.