Brian123321's Sports Betting Picks | All Sports | Full Tracking Inside

[FUR11]

I would like you to post your own plays and show that you are indeed better than me.  If you would like to make it interesting and put some BTC down we can do that also.  If you need an incentive to post picks then ill give you an incentive, we can have a contest.  You can pick as few or as many games a day as you please in both the NBA and NCAAB.  Flat betting is the only fair way to go about it.  We can set up a time frame, say beginning Saturday through the conference tournaments and end before march madness.  The last game would be the last game of the last conference tournament.  What do you say?

Sounds good, although a one week contest doesn't seem very good.  Let's negotiate some ground rules and set up an escrow.

My thoughts:

I agree with the "you can pick as few" games a day part, but disagree with the "as many...as you please" part.  Whoever is losing can just bet every game with no consequences.  I'd suggest putting a reasonable cap on the number of plays/day.

Why limit the betting to NBA and NCAA?  I feel we should include soccer, tennis, all basketball leagues, hockey, and baseball.  Moneylines, spreads, and o/us.  No buying points.

I agree that flat betting is the only fair system.  Furthermore, only "1 unit" bets should be allowed.  On - lines, whatever you need to bet to win one unit, and on + lines, risking 1 unit exactly.  No parlays/teasers/pleasers.

As I said, one month is far too short.  Offhand, I'd say one month sounds like a reasonable time frame.

And of course since you are so secretive about what you are betting with, I have no idea what you'd be looking to wager on this contest.  You'll have to fill me in.

Thoughts?

[1714990363]

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[1714990363]

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[1714990363]

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[brian123321]

I don't bet in any of those other sports and only bet ncaab during this time of the year.  There is not enough time left for ncaab to run a month with a constant schedule of games. Also I do do not like the idea of including soccer or tennis bc if the huge money lines.

And before you try and jump all over me I have never once said I can make picks in any other sports than the ones I stated and have clearly stated that i won't post NBA picks bc I can't pick consistent winners there yet. MLB unders, NCAAF, NFL and NCAAB is what I can pick it. I mentioned NBA in case you can make picks there but the other sports I would not care to have included.

[brian123321]

To add on you are calling my ncaab plays square, which I hope you now understand the definition of square, this the reason why in asking you to make nba and ncaab plays. This is not an unreasonable thing to ask.

[FUR11]

I don't bet in any of those other sports and only bet ncaab during this time of the year.  There is not enough time left for ncaab to run a month with a constant schedule of games. Also I do do not like the idea of including soccer or tennis bc if the huge money lines.

And before you try and jump all over me I have never once said I can make picks in any other sports than the ones I stated and have clearly stated that i won't post NBA picks bc I can't pick consistent winners there yet. MLB unders, NCAAF, NFL and NCAAB is what I can pick it. I mentioned NBA in case you can make picks there but the other sports I would not care to have included.

Soooooooo...that's an insta-back-down?  SHOCKING!

Let me know if you have any other challenges that you'd like to immediately rescind.

[FUR11]

To add on you are calling my ncaab plays square, which I hope you now understand the definition of square, this the reason why in asking you to make nba and ncaab plays. This is not an unreasonable thing to ask.

If you think that a square play means "favorites and overs", then no you do not know what that term means.

[brian123321]

To add on you are calling my ncaab plays square, which I hope you now understand the definition of square, this the reason why in asking you to make nba and ncaab plays. This is not an unreasonable thing to ask.

If you think that a square play means "favorites and overs", then no you do not know what that term means.

Seeing as I clearly stated why I this contest would only include nba and ncaab. And now you pretending to believe the definition of square plays is not what I wrote you have only done one thing to yourself.

Exposed troll is exposed.

I won't be responding to troll until troll publicly posts his own plays. Good night sweet prince.


Toodles!

[FUR11]

To add on you are calling my ncaab plays square, which I hope you now understand the definition of square, this the reason why in asking you to make nba and ncaab plays. This is not an unreasonable thing to ask.

If you think that a square play means "favorites and overs", then no you do not know what that term means.

Seeing as I clearly stated why I this contest would only include nba and ncaab. And now you pretending to believe the definition of square plays is not what I wrote you have only done one thing to yourself.

Exposed troll is exposed.

I won't be responding to troll until troll publicly posts his own plays. Good night sweet prince.


Toodles!

So, just to confirm, you now no longer want to have a handicapping contest with me, and you think that a 'square play' means "betting on the favorite and/or the over"? 

[zneww]

To add on you are calling my ncaab plays square, which I hope you now understand the definition of square, this the reason why in asking you to make nba and ncaab plays. This is not an unreasonable thing to ask.

If you think that a square play means "favorites and overs", then no you do not know what that term means.

Seeing as I clearly stated why I this contest would only include nba and ncaab. And now you pretending to believe the definition of square plays is not what I wrote you have only done one thing to yourself.

Exposed troll is exposed.

I won't be responding to troll until troll publicly posts his own plays. Good night sweet prince.


Toodles!

So, just to confirm, you now no longer want to have a handicapping contest with me, and you think that a 'square play' means "betting on the favorite and/or the over"?  

[waqas]

Can you post your picks some early because you are very late I cannot check on this time

[brian123321]

Can you post your picks some early because you are very late I cannot check on this time

I can post the plays earlier, however, there is a chance a play post end up being a no play come to tip off time.  A perfect example of this is yesterday with the monmouth game.  I made a fair warning that if the line was listed below 4 points on covers http://scores.covers.com/college-basketball-scores-matchups.aspx close to the time of tip off it would not be a play.  It doesnt matter if you can get 4 points at your book or the time of your bet.  It only matters what the line is listed at on this site.

Here is the reason for this . . .

When developing the system i use for NCAAB i used the covers lines when backtracking the plays.  Therefore the lines being used were the closing lines.  That means that earlier in the day the line could have been higher but closed lower.  Believe me when i say this, the closing line means a great deal to my system.

So i can post the plays earlier with the spreads i calculate and you can take an educated guess on whether you believe that line will move to a no play or stay a play.  That is the best i can do.  This is the reason i wait to post plays ~30min before tip off when the lines are very close.  I have to wait and see if it is going to become a no play.

Ill go through the games now.  I will post the games that i most likely will have plays on and ill post the lines that it has to close on or above in order for it to be a play.  From there you have to decide for yourself if you think it will stay a play or not. 

[brian123321]

March 7

Here are the picks for today.  What i have done is put the calculated spread (my spread) in parentheses.  If the line on covers.com for the game is lower than the line in parentheses at the time of tip off then the game would not be a play.  Ill post updates throughout the day and evening when i lock in a play.  But for the people who are not around then you can take a look and decide if you want to take a chance on the line not moving enough to make it a no play.

3:30pm EST

Missouri St+1 (+0)

6:00pm EST

Loyola Chicago +7 (+6.5)

6:30pm EST

Morehead St +6 (+3.5)

9:35pm EST

Southern Illinois +5 (+4.5)


Those are the games ill be watching today.  Like i said they will all be plays only if the spread listed on covers is equal to or more than the spread in parentheses come game time.  It does not matter that they are all plays at this moment.  It only matters what the lines close at on covers.

[brian123321]

Locking in Missouri st now at

Missouri St +1.5

[brian123321]

Looking at line movement thus far and as of now the only game i can see that may become a no play is Southern Illinois.  Loyola Chicago looks like it will move to +7.5 keeping it as a play but as always stuff could change

[brian123321]

Locked in Loyola Chicago +7.5

[brian123321]

Locking in Missouri st now at

Missouri St +1.5

Missouri St covers!

[brian123321]

Locked in Morehead st +6.5

[brian123321]

Locked in Southern Illinois +5

[brian123321]

Gonna be the first losing day in weeks.  Hopefully Southern Illinois covers and makes it so the only thing lost is the juice.

[brian123321]

Finished the day 2-2

Southern Illinois came through to make the losing day minimal.

[brian123321]

Brings totals to

44-18-2

70%

+24.2 Units


Be back tomorrow morning all of saturdays plays.