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brian123321 (OP)
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March 21, 2014, 07:33:23 AM |
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Ah, you have no records of opening or throughout-the-day lines so for back testing and current testing as you go to stay precise with how you collected your system information you have to use only the closing line. Gotcha, makes sense now.
This is exactly correct. Another reason why i backtrack using the closing lines is because the stats that i need to use will not be updated until the next day. So in theory i would never be able to get the most current stats before the lines opened. |
Tips: 1PyqHAuUU54Bk53XFwGoYAGciovHtL7CEL
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brian123321 (OP)
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March 21, 2014, 06:35:02 PM |
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March 21I thought i was not going to have any system plays for Friday but i was wrong. I had originally calculated the spread wrong. I went back through all the games and i actually have 2 system plays. 3pm EST
LA Lafayette +14 (+13.5)
930pm EST
Robert Morris +9 (+8.5)Again i will explain the numbers in the parentheses because they are very important numbers. It does not make any sense to lock these plays in right now because these plays could easily become no plays by the time of tip off. I have explained this multiple times in this thread but i will explain it again. The system i created was backtracked using the closing lines on covers. Therefore the closing line on covers is what decides what is a play and what is not a play. For example, lets take the La Lafayette play above. The line right now is +14. The line in parentheses shows what the line has to be at or above come about 30 minutes to tip off on covers ( http://scores.covers.com/college-basketball-scores-matchups.aspx). The LA Lafayette game is at 3pm tomorrow. If at 2:30pm the line on covers is +13 then the game would be a no play. If the line on covers was +13.5 or higher the game would be a play. I can not stress this enough . . . . It does NOT MATTER if you can lock the play in at +14 right now. It only matters what the closing line is on covers. That is what decides if a game is a play or a no play. If you have any questions about this please ask them. I will be around for a little while tonight and i will be around a little while tomorrow before the game. I am also going to go back tomorrow and double check the numbers tomorrow morning. There will be some updated stats come tomorrow and i need to see if those will make a difference in either of these games. I dont think they will but its always better to be on the safe side. As always i will update this thread tomorrow when i lock in the plays. Good Luck! bump my plays |
Tips: 1PyqHAuUU54Bk53XFwGoYAGciovHtL7CEL
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brian123321 (OP)
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March 21, 2014, 06:36:07 PM |
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Locked on LA Lafayette +13.5
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Tips: 1PyqHAuUU54Bk53XFwGoYAGciovHtL7CEL
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alabamafan1
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March 21, 2014, 06:36:37 PM |
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Going to tail, good luck to us!
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brian123321 (OP)
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March 21, 2014, 06:41:19 PM |
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Forgot to check the new numbers like i said i would. However, i just went back and skimmed over them without calculating them for the LA Lafayette game and the only numbers that changed, changed in LA Lafayettes favor. Going back to check the Robert Morris game now.
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Tips: 1PyqHAuUU54Bk53XFwGoYAGciovHtL7CEL
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jeremypwr
Legendary
 Offline
Activity: 3052
Merit: 5026
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March 21, 2014, 06:42:26 PM |
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Going to tail, good luck to us!
Tread lightly when tailing this guy. Have you seen his other thread? System vs. non-system uhhh  Good luck fellas...  |
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brian123321 (OP)
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March 21, 2014, 06:43:12 PM |
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The stats did not change at all for the Rob Morris game so we are good to go.
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Tips: 1PyqHAuUU54Bk53XFwGoYAGciovHtL7CEL
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alabamafan1
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March 21, 2014, 06:44:36 PM |
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His system plays have done amazing. Lafayette is a system play. No brainer to tail with a great ROI so far. Hopefully it wins!
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brian123321 (OP)
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March 21, 2014, 06:45:41 PM |
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Going to tail, good luck to us!
Tread lightly when tailing this guy. Have you seen his other thread? System vs. non-system uhhh Good luck fellas... Please link the other thread you are talking about. I have only made 2 threads in this forum. The first being this exact same thread that i moved over to this sub forum because of the suggestion from users. I didnt change it at all and it clearly shows the link to the previous thread in my first post. Please explain and link thread you are talking about |
Tips: 1PyqHAuUU54Bk53XFwGoYAGciovHtL7CEL
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alabamafan1
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March 21, 2014, 06:47:17 PM |
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If you go 2-0 I'll be sending you a tip by the way.
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brian123321 (OP)
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March 21, 2014, 06:49:45 PM |
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Going to tail, good luck to us!
Tread lightly when tailing this guy. Have you seen his other thread? System vs. non-system uhhh Good luck fellas... Or is it that you some how are mad at me because i posted in your thread that betting on large ML favorites is not going to end well? I am assuming that is why you are saying whatever it is you are saying about a magical thread that does not exist to my knowledge. I will stand by what i said about betting large ML favorites. The only reason people bet them is because they can not properly handicap games. Because of this they are forced to give up tons of value betting on MLs and it only takes losing a couple of those to wipe out any profit you have made. If thats the way you want to make your picks by all means do it. But i have learned my lesson over the years and i know not to mess with large ML favorites anymore. Its not worth it, you give up way too much value and having a short bad run will wipe everything you have made over the course of a month in a matter of a day or two. |
Tips: 1PyqHAuUU54Bk53XFwGoYAGciovHtL7CEL
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FUR11
Sr. Member
Offline
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
FURring bitcoin up since 1762
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March 21, 2014, 06:52:03 PM |
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Going to tail, good luck to us!
Tread lightly when tailing this guy. Have you seen his other thread? System vs. non-system uhhh Good luck fellas... Or is it that you some how are mad at me because i posted in your thread that betting on large ML favorites is not going to end well? I am assuming that is why you are saying whatever it is you are saying about a magical thread that does not exist to my knowledge. I will stand by what i said about betting large ML favorites. The only reason people bet them is because they can not properly handicap games. Because of this they are forced to give up tons of value betting on MLs and it only takes losing a couple of those to wipe out any profit you have made. If thats the way you want to make your picks by all means do it. But i have learned my lesson over the years and i know not to mess with large ML favorites anymore. Its not worth it, you give up way too much value and having a short bad run will wipe everything you have made over the course of a month in a matter of a day or two. I agree with you about ML favorites, but wouldn't you also agree that creating elaborate "system"s is also indicative of people who cannot properly handicap games? |
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brian123321 (OP)
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March 21, 2014, 06:54:35 PM |
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If you go 2-0 I'll be sending you a tip by the way.
Not necessary unless you bet enough to be able to afford it. There was a guy in here who purchased my picks early on that was new to sports betting. He didnt understand i was betting spreads and thought i was betting MLs. I assume he thought this because it looks like the few other people on this forum who post picks post ML picks. Anyways he went 0-3 when i had actually gone 1-2 and then he didnt receive my 4-0 day picks soon enough to get back to 5-2 like the other people did who purchased early on. Anyways that besides the point. He had sent me a message saying he lost a total of 0.01 on the 3 bets. The original plays he purchased cost 0.01 so he should not have been purchasing the plays because he didnt bet enough per game to make the purchase worth it. So basically all i am saying is tips are appreciated if you can afford to send them but dont send them because you feel like you need to. Just like dont purchase my picks if you cant afford to bet enough to make them worth it. Find some people to throw down with. |
Tips: 1PyqHAuUU54Bk53XFwGoYAGciovHtL7CEL
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jeremypwr
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3052
Merit: 5026
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March 21, 2014, 06:56:01 PM |
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Going to tail, good luck to us!
Tread lightly when tailing this guy. Have you seen his other thread? System vs. non-system uhhh Good luck fellas... Or is it that you some how are mad at me because i posted in your thread that betting on large ML favorites is not going to end well? I am assuming that is why you are saying whatever it is you are saying about a magical thread that does not exist to my knowledge. I will stand by what i said about betting large ML favorites. The only reason people bet them is because they can not properly handicap games. Because of this they are forced to give up tons of value betting on MLs and it only takes losing a couple of those to wipe out any profit you have made. If thats the way you want to make your picks by all means do it. But i have learned my lesson over the years and i know not to mess with large ML favorites anymore. Its not worth it, you give up way too much value and having a short bad run will wipe everything you have made over the course of a month in a matter of a day or two. You appeared in my thread and asked me a question; which I ignored. I'll continue to ignore you. You're a tout selling losing picks. That's all I'm going to say on that topic. However, we are all here to beat the Sportsbook so with that I will wish you good luck! |
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brian123321 (OP)
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March 21, 2014, 06:56:33 PM |
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Going to tail, good luck to us!
Tread lightly when tailing this guy. Have you seen his other thread? System vs. non-system uhhh Good luck fellas... Or is it that you some how are mad at me because i posted in your thread that betting on large ML favorites is not going to end well? I am assuming that is why you are saying whatever it is you are saying about a magical thread that does not exist to my knowledge. I will stand by what i said about betting large ML favorites. The only reason people bet them is because they can not properly handicap games. Because of this they are forced to give up tons of value betting on MLs and it only takes losing a couple of those to wipe out any profit you have made. If thats the way you want to make your picks by all means do it. But i have learned my lesson over the years and i know not to mess with large ML favorites anymore. Its not worth it, you give up way too much value and having a short bad run will wipe everything you have made over the course of a month in a matter of a day or two. I agree with you about ML favorites, but wouldn't you also agree that creating elaborate "system"s is also indicative of people who cannot properly handicap games? The system is not elaborate. I also do incorporate my own spreads that i calculate (which would be handicapping). However, i dont pick games purely on my spreads. I take other factors into account. That is why i refer to it as a system. |
Tips: 1PyqHAuUU54Bk53XFwGoYAGciovHtL7CEL
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zneww
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March 21, 2014, 06:58:39 PM |
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Going to tail, good luck to us!
Tread lightly when tailing this guy. Have you seen his other thread? System vs. non-system uhhh Good luck fellas... Or is it that you some how are mad at me because i posted in your thread that betting on large ML favorites is not going to end well? I am assuming that is why you are saying whatever it is you are saying about a magical thread that does not exist to my knowledge. I will stand by what i said about betting large ML favorites. The only reason people bet them is because they can not properly handicap games. Because of this they are forced to give up tons of value betting on MLs and it only takes losing a couple of those to wipe out any profit you have made. If thats the way you want to make your picks by all means do it. But i have learned my lesson over the years and i know not to mess with large ML favorites anymore. Its not worth it, you give up way too much value and having a short bad run will wipe everything you have made over the course of a month in a matter of a day or two. You appeared in my thread and asked me a question; which I ignored. I'll continue to ignore you. You're a tout selling losing picks. That's all I'm going to say on that topic. However, we are all here to beat the Sportsbook so with that I will wish you good luck! and then he refunds...the 3 dollars. lol |
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FUR11
Sr. Member
Offline
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
FURring bitcoin up since 1762
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March 21, 2014, 07:00:13 PM |
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Going to tail, good luck to us!
Tread lightly when tailing this guy. Have you seen his other thread? System vs. non-system uhhh Good luck fellas... Or is it that you some how are mad at me because i posted in your thread that betting on large ML favorites is not going to end well? I am assuming that is why you are saying whatever it is you are saying about a magical thread that does not exist to my knowledge. I will stand by what i said about betting large ML favorites. The only reason people bet them is because they can not properly handicap games. Because of this they are forced to give up tons of value betting on MLs and it only takes losing a couple of those to wipe out any profit you have made. If thats the way you want to make your picks by all means do it. But i have learned my lesson over the years and i know not to mess with large ML favorites anymore. Its not worth it, you give up way too much value and having a short bad run will wipe everything you have made over the course of a month in a matter of a day or two. I agree with you about ML favorites, but wouldn't you also agree that creating elaborate "system"s is also indicative of people who cannot properly handicap games? The system is not elaborate. I also do incorporate my own spreads that i calculate (which would be handicapping). However, i dont pick games purely on my spreads. I take other factors into account. That is why i refer to it as a system. But you would agree that people who rely on systems to make their sports betting plays cannot properly handicap games, right? |
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brian123321 (OP)
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March 21, 2014, 07:00:23 PM |
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Going to tail, good luck to us!
Tread lightly when tailing this guy. Have you seen his other thread? System vs. non-system uhhh Good luck fellas... Or is it that you some how are mad at me because i posted in your thread that betting on large ML favorites is not going to end well? I am assuming that is why you are saying whatever it is you are saying about a magical thread that does not exist to my knowledge. I will stand by what i said about betting large ML favorites. The only reason people bet them is because they can not properly handicap games. Because of this they are forced to give up tons of value betting on MLs and it only takes losing a couple of those to wipe out any profit you have made. If thats the way you want to make your picks by all means do it. But i have learned my lesson over the years and i know not to mess with large ML favorites anymore. Its not worth it, you give up way too much value and having a short bad run will wipe everything you have made over the course of a month in a matter of a day or two. You appeared in my thread and asked me a question; which I ignored. I'll continue to ignore you. You're a tout selling losing picks. That's all I'm going to say on that topic. However, we are all here to beat the Sportsbook so with that I will wish you good luck! Please show me losing picks? I have a posted track record that is publicly posted before the games start if i am not selling that day and the days i am selling are posted literally right after tip off. So im confused where you are getting losing picks. As everyone that has purchased picks from me will tell you that i have made them money and i have stuck to my word. I sent back refunds on a losing day and continued to give them free picks until i got them above 50%. So again, you do not know what you are talking about. Also congrats on 9-0. You are betting ML favorites. You are risking 1.5 - 4 units to win 1. I have skimmed through your thread and seen in the past you would risk 20 - 40 units to win 1. Keep it up, it will not end well |
Tips: 1PyqHAuUU54Bk53XFwGoYAGciovHtL7CEL
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alabamafan1
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March 21, 2014, 07:01:38 PM |
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Putting half a coin on Lafayette to win .46. If it wins putting .46 on 2nd game, of it loses putting .25 on the 2nd. Prob .01-.02 tip if both win. Specific amount would depend on how stressful / close the games are for covering.  |
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jeremypwr
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3052
Merit: 5026
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March 21, 2014, 07:03:31 PM |
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Going to tail, good luck to us!
Tread lightly when tailing this guy. Have you seen his other thread? System vs. non-system uhhh Good luck fellas... Or is it that you some how are mad at me because i posted in your thread that betting on large ML favorites is not going to end well? I am assuming that is why you are saying whatever it is you are saying about a magical thread that does not exist to my knowledge. I will stand by what i said about betting large ML favorites. The only reason people bet them is because they can not properly handicap games. Because of this they are forced to give up tons of value betting on MLs and it only takes losing a couple of those to wipe out any profit you have made. If thats the way you want to make your picks by all means do it. But i have learned my lesson over the years and i know not to mess with large ML favorites anymore. Its not worth it, you give up way too much value and having a short bad run will wipe everything you have made over the course of a month in a matter of a day or two. You appeared in my thread and asked me a question; which I ignored. I'll continue to ignore you. You're a tout selling losing picks. That's all I'm going to say on that topic. However, we are all here to beat the Sportsbook so with that I will wish you good luck!
and then he refunds...the 3 dollars. lolLOL...selling picks for $3. I wonder how much his units are... |
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