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Author Topic: Will btc difficulty go sideways for rest of the year?  (Read 5311 times)
philipma1957
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October 11, 2018, 02:49:38 AM
Last edit: October 11, 2018, 11:19:37 PM by frodocooper
 #21

Bch was doing big swings last year but they leveled.

They have 4 ehash

Or 4000 ph

Or 4000000th or

4,000,000/14 = around 285,000 s9 Mining.

Yeah they could truly alter the rate of btc diff since lots of pools auto switch to bch if it earns more.

But. You need a big price jump to really move a lot of hash off btc.

Since btc has 3 million plus s9 and bch has under 300 thousand  ..

So if bch jumps 2x in price btc drops maybe 250 thousand s9 and bch picks up that hash.

But it reaches its own level.

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October 11, 2018, 01:43:50 PM
 #22

So the price of coin dropped and looks like hashing dropped maybe we go negative for the next difficulty adjustment.
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October 12, 2018, 01:02:14 AM
 #23

Yeah I really should have seen that coming. Had to cash out some coin to cover bills, which historically only ever happens right after a tank. Invoices due to me are always paid right before a tank.

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October 15, 2018, 02:16:20 AM
 #24

all info is  from

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Difficulty History

Date.................Difficulty...................Change.....Hash Rate
Oct 04 2018   7,454,968,648,263   4.23%   53,364,744,228 GH/s
Sep 20 2018   7,152,633,351,906   1.90%   51,200,543,878 GH/s
Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177   4.34%   50,245,385,237 GH/s
Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s



projected for Oct 18th

about

 Estimated Next Difficulty:   7,278,295,116,188 (-2.37%)

So the sideways motion is setting up

compare to this time frame:

Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s
Aug 11 2018   6,389,316,883,511   7.39%   45,736,511,764 GH/s
Jul 29 2018   5,949,437,371,609   14.88%   42,587,731,568 GH/s
Jul 17 2018   5,178,671,069,072   -3.45%   37,070,371,464 GH/s
Jul 02 2018   5,363,678,461,481   5.64%   38,394,705,964 GH/s
Jun 19 2018   5,077,499,034,879   2.77%   36,346,153,834 GH/s
Jun 05 2018   4,940,704,885,521   14.71%   35,366,943,171 GH/s
May 24 2018   4,306,949,573,981   3.94%   30,830,345,943 GH/s

The key is the next two jumps after this one.
Along with BTC price.

if price stays at 6000 - 6500  I think we continue to drift sideways.

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October 17, 2018, 12:56:04 AM
 #25

Almost -3%

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   7,454,968,648,263
Estimated Next Difficulty:   7,232,778,297,423 (-2.98%)
Adjust time:   After 257 Blocks, About 1.8 days
Hashrate(?):   50,468,480,940 GH/s


Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate


Oct 18 2018      7,200,000,000,000  -3%  maybe


Oct 04 2018   7,454,968,648,263   4.23%   53,364,744,228 GH/s
Sep 20 2018   7,152,633,351,906   1.90%   51,200,543,878 GH/s
Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177   4.34%   50,245,385,237 GH/s

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October 18, 2018, 11:31:22 AM
Last edit: October 18, 2018, 09:35:58 PM by frodocooper
 #26

We have to see the two next diff changes, if we have a little increase or decrease btc its following LTC just like you said.

Im expecting the same, the hashrate ATH its 56 EH, so close to 54EH actual, we dont have gears with 6 month ROI even with 0,04c (all over 12 month without including facility costs).

With my costs being 0,045 im good with that, we can keep this for two years and the moon  Grin  but lets see whats bitmain have for us in this new gear, lets see the s11 price, this is gonna guide the market.
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October 18, 2018, 03:10:37 PM
 #27

Yeah I really should have seen that coming. Had to cash out some coin to cover bills, which historically only ever happens right after a tank. Invoices due to me are always paid right before a tank.

Seems to be pretty stable market wise lately. Hopefully you did ok?

I imagine that part of the business is pretty nerve racking pending market for us and you. 

What I wonder is if we get a market spike or bull run, how much difficulty will increase.

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October 18, 2018, 06:13:04 PM
Last edit: October 18, 2018, 09:37:12 PM by frodocooper
 #28

What I wonder is if we get a market spike or bull run, how much difficulty will increase.

I'm not sure it will be the market spike or a bull run that's going to start bumping the Diff up. Having been going through the hardware that's available or about to ship out, that's where I think the next jump will come from.

Anyone upgrading to get back into better profits will also likely be increasing their overall hashrate.

Obviously if we see any rise in price that nears the ATH or even half way there; some equipment will go back online. Same as last year, but that will also drive hardware purchases through the roof again. This would likely take about 4 weeks to be felt by the network; either in waiting for gear to arrive, or people deciding if it's worth setting up old equipment.

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October 18, 2018, 11:28:31 PM
Last edit: October 19, 2018, 11:45:32 PM by frodocooper
 #29

I think  we stay flat  unless we move  to  8000 a coin overnight (a day or 2)

Of course if bitmain  does a 28th 1400 watt miner  for 900 usd I take that back. Grin

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
Oct 18 2018   7,182,852,313,938   -3.65%   51,416,859,634 GH/s
Oct 04 2018   7,454,968,648,263   4.23%   53,364,744,228 GH/s
Sep 20 2018   7,152,633,351,906   1.90%   51,200,543,878 GH/s
Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177   4.34%   50,245,385,237 GH/s
Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s

so above is about a 1.66% average

48155 x 1.0166 = 48891
48891 x 1.0153 = 49767
49639 x 1.0153 = 50593
50398 x 1.0153 = 51432     we are at 51416    so 1.66%  from  Aug 24 until  Oct 31 .

Next jump should be around the 31st   there is no reason for  much growth  without   a price jump over 7500

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philipma1957
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October 26, 2018, 01:12:00 PM
 #30

Pretty flat for now. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   7,182,852,313,938
Estimated Next Difficulty:   7,344,820,265,442 (+2.25%)
Adjust time:   After 945 Blocks, About 6.7 days
Hashrate(?):   48,472,749,233 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.8 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   

I good chance at under 1%Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
Oct 18 2018   7,182,852,313,938   -3.65%   51,416,859,634 GH/s
Oct 04 2018   7,454,968,648,263   4.23%   53,364,744,228 GH/s
Sep 20 2018   7,152,633,351,906   1.90%   51,200,543,878 GH/s
Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177   4.34%   50,245,385,237 GH/s
Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s


those bold numbers show almost the same

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October 27, 2018, 04:38:49 PM
Last edit: October 29, 2018, 11:56:49 PM by frodocooper
 #31

it is 27 ⅓ hours later then last post.

so 24 x 6 = 144
      3 x 6 =   18
     ⅓ x 6 =      2

164 blocks is pace for 0%
we were at 945
we are   at 777

168 blocks

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   7,182,852,313,938
Estimated Next Difficulty:   7,273,786,523,959 (+1.27%)
Adjust time:   After 777 Blocks, About 5.5 days
Hashrate(?):   47,977,666,892 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.8 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   

to make note it is going to be 0-2% so still sideways

Difficulty History

Date-------------Difficulty---------------Change----   Hash Rate

Nov  1 2018      to be determined maybe 1%

Oct 18 2018   7,182,852,313,938   -3.65%   51,416,859,634 GH/s
Oct 04 2018   7,454,968,648,263   4.23%   53,364,744,228 GH/s
Sep 20 2018   7,152,633,351,906   1.90%   51,200,543,878 GH/s
Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177   4.34%   50,245,385,237 GH/s
Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s

A chance to stay pretty flat.
note we had a flat spot late summer of 2017 maybe 4 jumps

we will now have  a six jump flat spot in a few days


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October 29, 2018, 12:47:42 PM
 #32

So since you have come up with your thread we are  still drifting sideways.

Coins did a big dip today  down to

6200 on coinbase
6359 on bitfinex
6211 on bittrex

If we get a good drop  to 4800  all those big players will get very nervous.

A 4 cent power guy  with an s9 makes only 30 dollars a month on an s9
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October 29, 2018, 12:58:37 PM
Last edit: October 29, 2018, 11:58:09 PM by frodocooper
 #33

We could drop to the levels of

Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177      50,245,385,237 GH/s

Difficulty History

Date-------------Difficulty---------------Change----   Hash Rate

Oct 18 2018   7,182,852,313,938   -3.65%   51,416,859,634 GH/s
Oct 04 2018   7,454,968,648,263   4.23%   53,364,744,228 GH/s
Sep 20 2018   7,152,633,351,906   1.90%   51,200,543,878 GH/s
Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177   4.34%   50,245,385,237 GH/s
Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s

But 4 cent power guys are good as low as 4000 price

If we go to 4000 price the network will shrink more
just look at litecoin

Difficulty History

Code:
Date Difficulty Change Hash Rate
Oct 26 2018 8,187,466 -6.08% 234,433 GH/s  (way lower)
Oct 23 2018 8,717,916 -1.87% 249,621 GH/s
Oct 19 2018 8,884,304 -1.88% 254,385 GH/s
Oct 15 2018 9,054,556 2.22% 259,260 GH/s
Oct 12 2018 8,858,250 -1.35% 253,639 GH/s
Oct 09 2018 8,979,719 5.91% 257,117 GH/s
Oct 05 2018 8,478,980 -7.30% 242,780 GH/s
Oct 01 2018 9,146,222 2.65% 261,885 GH/s
Sep 28 2018 8,910,079 -3.47% 255,123 GH/s
Sep 24 2018 9,230,764 5.36% 264,306 GH/s
Sep 21 2018 8,760,775 0.74% 250,848 GH/s
Sep 18 2018 8,696,471 -1.17% 249,007 GH/s
Sep 14 2018 8,799,549 0.16% 251,959 GH/s
Sep 11 2018 8,785,275 1.00% 251,550 GH/s
Sep 07 2018 8,697,984 -1.38% 249,050 GH/s
Sep 04 2018 8,819,878 1.53% 252,541 GH/s
Aug 31 2018 8,686,646 -1.40% 248,726 GH/s
Aug 28 2018 8,809,843 0.66% 252,253 GH/s
Aug 24 2018 8,752,406 -0.85% 250,609 GH/s
Aug 21 2018 8,827,455 4.10% 252,758 GH/s
Aug 17 2018 8,479,765 -4.43% 242,802 GH/s
Aug 14 2018 8,873,191 -9.87% 254,067 GH/s
Aug 10 2018 9,845,135 6.81% 281,897 GH/s
Aug 06 2018 9,217,686 1.86% 263,931 GH/s
Aug 03 2018 9,049,638 -10.13% 259,119 GH/s
Jul 30 2018 10,070,201 -3.63% 288,341 GH/s
Jul 26 2018 10,449,981 9.88% 299,216 GH/s
Jul 23 2018 9,510,707 -5.10% 272,321 GH/s
Jul 20 2018 10,021,646 3.39% 286,951 GH/s
Jul 16 2018 9,693,242 4.13% 277,548 GH/s
Jul 13 2018 9,308,365 -3.88% 266,527 GH/s
Jul 09 2018 9,683,851 4.89% 277,279 GH/s
Jul 06 2018 9,232,469 -6.46% 264,354 GH/s
Jul 02 2018 9,869,969 0.99% 282,608 GH/s
Jun 29 2018 9,773,635 -6.54% 279,850 GH/s
Jun 25 2018 10,457,237 -0.93% 299,423 GH/s
Jun 21 2018 10,554,914 -1.22% 302,220 GH/s
Jun 18 2018 10,684,873 -2.90% 305,941 GH/s
Jun 14 2018 11,003,971 0.35% 315,078 GH/s  (peak number)

please note most all my charts and numbers come from

https://bitcoinwisdom.com

I give them credit for the numbers but my  ideas from these numbers belong to me.

Look at all the - numbers lite coin  has had  since June

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October 30, 2018, 08:16:24 AM
 #34

I've been looking for some more information on the Bitmain firmware for OAB.

So far what I've seen is improved efficiency at a  lower hashrate (-6% I think). So I doubt it will contribute overall to an increase in network hash. Before the dip in price I expected some people to fire up their S9's that are kicking around, some may still, but not enough to make a significant impact.

I still think the flat idea will hold true until these batches of efficient gear hit the market and have a few weeks of hashing in.

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October 30, 2018, 01:53:42 PM
 #35

I've been looking for some more information on the Bitmain firmware for OAB.

So far what I've seen is improved efficiency at a  lower hashrate (-6% I think). So I doubt it will contribute overall to an increase in network hash. Before the dip in price I expected some people to fire up their S9's that are kicking around, some may still, but not enough to make a significant impact.

I still think the flat idea will hold true until these batches of efficient gear hit the market and have a few weeks of hashing in.

Yeah  we look to be -1%   at the moment  but to me the next jump may be a -3% fall.  Making us close to the Aug 24 numbers on bitcoinwisdom

"Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s"    we may go this low and that would be nice.

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November 01, 2018, 08:44:00 PM
 #36

We are 1 block from next jump.

for a moment we had a shot at 0.00 instead  we will be negative.

we needed to hit the last block at 4:37 pm EST  to have been 0.00%

So  pretty good since august of this year.

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November 02, 2018, 05:20:10 PM
 #37

So almost 0%

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November 03, 2018, 01:13:43 AM
 #38

New projected difficulty starting at close to 7.4%. There's been a jump.
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November 03, 2018, 01:24:55 AM
 #39

New projected difficulty starting at close to 7.4%. There's been a jump.

huh?

Next Difficulty Estimated
(+0.17%) 7.20 T
Date to Next Difficulty
12 Days 11 Hours
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November 03, 2018, 01:27:16 AM
Last edit: November 03, 2018, 10:45:09 AM by frodocooper
 #40

huh?

Next Difficulty Estimated
(+0.17%) 7.20 T
Date to Next Difficulty
12 Days 11 Hours

Bitcoin Difficulty:   7,184,404,942,701
Estimated Next Difficulty:   7,715,793,097,066 (+7.40%)
Adjust time:   After 1849 Blocks, About 12.5 days
Hashrate(?):   55,648,940,750 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.1 minutes
6 blocks: 58.2 minutes
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