Will btc difficulty go sideways for rest of the year?

[qctechno_isback]

#Hashwar had first white flag raised yesterday

https://coingeek.com/plan-end-worlds-first-bitcoin-hash-election/
https://twitter.com/JiangZhuoer/status/1064874870704504832
https://cash.coin.dance/

BTC Bottomed at 4400$USD on Poloniex.

BAB and BSV will continue to drain hashrate

Trashing unprofitable miners in China
https://twitter.com/DoveyWan/status/1064878600594305025

Business going bankrupt
https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-mining-firm-giga-watt-declares-bankruptcy-owing-millions

Only good news :

BTC Retarget -24%
https://fork.lol/pow/retarget

[1714072243]

1714072243

[philipma1957]

[...]

[...]

numbers are still very low from above two sites

-7 to -11.6

-10.24

bitcoinwisdom below

Bitcoin Difficulty:   6,653,303,141,405
Estimated Next Difficulty:   6,250,646,273,917 (-6.05%)
Adjust time:   After 1317 Blocks, About 10.1 days

Hashrate(?):   39,983,904,950 GH/s  this is more like  20%

Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 11.1 minutes
3 blocks: 33.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   7:15 (4.6 minutes ago)

[stompix]

Only good news :

BTC Retarget -24%
https://fork.lol/pow/retarget

bitcoinwisdom below

Hashrate(?):   39,983,904,950 GH/s  this is more like  20%

I'm probably 99 times wrong out of 100 when trying to predict stuff but no way a 20% drop will happen if the price will stay at least the same or in a 5% range from 4500. No way!
10exa is something close to half a million s9, I doubt there is that much older and more inefficient gear still mining, and right now it makes no sense to unplug s9s if you can get 4-5 cents per kwh.

Something totally wrong is going on behind the curtains

[rifleman74]

I'm probably 99 times wrong out of 100 when trying to predict stuff but no way a 20% drop will happen if the price will stay at least the same or in a 5% range from 4500. No way!
10exa is something close to half a million s9, I doubt there is that much older and more inefficient gear still mining, and right now it makes no sense to unplug s9s if you can get 4-5 cents per kwh.

Something totally wrong is going on behind the curtains

There's a lot of people who could try to scrape by on their mining, but now with BTC below 4500, they've pulled the plug.

[philipma1957]

everyone above 7 cents is dead.

Now bitmain had a huge Hashnest operation which was around 8cents for power and said it was s9's.
I think they simply shut that down this would cause the drop.
I also think they would ask quite a bit for the miner to get shipped to you.  So you will say no then
they could simple mine  the gear now  and if they are 4 cent power they make money on it.

[Philopolymath]

I'm sure I'm not the only one that mines at a loss... I did so in 2013/14 when BTC was $300-600 and waited years for the spike..
Now we are desperate to get as much as we  can before the 2020 half reward drop. And just as hopeful for another spike.

[DaCryptoRaccoon]

Loving the drop in diff though my concern is if the hashrate continues to decline on BTC are we not running the risk of allowing  2nd chain to catch up in Log2(POW)  if an attacker has been "covert" building upon a 2nd secret chain could this not allow for a much easier 51% attack in the future if things continue to decline. 

While it might be a good thing for some in the short term the drop in hash and diff I think there is something we are missing here.

[philipma1957]

Loving the drop in diff though my concern is if the hashrate continues to decline on BTC are we not running the risk of allowing  2nd chain to catch up in Log2(POW)  if an attacker has been "covert" building upon a 2nd secret chain could this not allow for a much easier 51% attack in the future if things continue to decline.  

While it might be a good thing for some in the short term the drop in hash and diff I think there is something we are missing here.

my theory is hashnest manipulated market.

quite a bit.

they loaded it with s11's (they are real)

back in feb/march

still charged  all s9 owners of hashnest  power fees based on s9 power cost say 100 watts a th.  not the 70 watts  a th the s11 uses.

they then sold the s9s as s9i's  with pcb dipped and cleaned  and new fans.  this is how they sold all those cheapo s9i's and s9j's  for months on end.

so  from march to nov 1  they made  extra on the hashnest  gear and turned over the s9's  they were fully roi'd

has to be 10 to 20 percent of the network.

now price is crashing and they are offloading s11's  but not to the states

some s11 photos

[TheYankeesWin!]

I do not think they are that smart phil.

if they were it would now mean the hashnest is filled with s11's and since the s-9's dont make money all the s9 hashnest shares are dead.

It means they have tons of idle s11's  they could point to the bch fork side they like.

So I see that BTC hashrate did the drop  but what  is the hashrate for each BCH fork

if you are correct  all three coins need to be close to 65eh in hash

so:

 BTC is 40 eh   coin is 4200
 BCH is   4 eh   coin is  200
 BCH/fork is

[buwaytress]

I'm sure I'm not the only one that mines at a loss... I did so in 2013/14 when BTC was $300-600 and waited years for the spike..
Now we are desperate to get as much as we  can before the 2020 half reward drop. And just as hopeful for another spike.

This was my suspicion too. Some as we've seen have already thrown in the towel, but there's sure to be others who're willing and financially able to dig in and mine, counting on a significant price recovery not too far away. Those patient in the past were rewarded, it's not just the buyers and holders who're the permabulls, buying and holding and gritting their teeth. Sure to be a handful of hardcore miners in that camp.

[philipma1957]

This was my suspicion too. Some as we've seen have already thrown in the towel, but there's sure to be others who're willing and financially able to dig in and mine, counting on a significant price recovery not too far away. Those patient in the past were rewarded, it's not just the buyers and holders who're the permabulls, buying and holding and gritting their teeth. Sure to be a handful of hardcore miners in that camp.

Hey I got a piece of the solar array with buysolar  my gear always profits.

50-50 coin split   so 100th of btc gear = 50th for no cost  the diff drop  helps the array as we are power capped at 20kwatts.

I am not the only solar miner.  if you opened a solar array  in 2016 the runup last year was great.

[alh]

For what it's worth, another step down in BTC price. Last quote from coinbase: $3757.

[philipma1957]

For what it's worth, another step down in BTC price. Last quote from coinbase: $3757.

nice I will buy some.



edit I just purchased some at 3675.

I have more cash set aside for next drop

[sidehack]

MOTHERF$@&

Would be a freakin' marvellous time to buy if I didn't need to *increase* liquid capital right now.

[philipma1957]

MOTHERF$@&

Would be a freakin' marvellous time to buy if I didn't need to *increase* liquid capital right now.

Diff is looking to go down a lot

you have anything mining for yourself?

[sidehack]

Phil - not really, no. I've got an S9 I cobbled together from salvage parts and something like a dozen S7 I'll be lighting up for heat soon but that's about it.

[minefarmbuy]

I've been buying more than my usual "latte" money worth the last week or so. So this is nice. I may have to shut the "heaters" off though cause my gas furnace will be cheaper to run if this market continues trend.

Sidehack I thought you set up an account with us? Our financial guy is pretty good at at least securing a decent APY for shitty fiat liquidity.

[sidehack]

MFB, I gave y'all some money for the chips sale y'all brokered but that's the only "account" I might have. As for financial anything else, I abhor debt so I won't borrow except in emergencies and have never endorsed trading for profit. Call me an optimist but the bulk of my savings for the last 15 months or so have been in BTC. Needless to say I've been taking a beating lately.

But hey, if diff keeps dropping maybe I'll get some good heater-mining in. The apartment and shop are all electric heat.

[minefarmbuy]

Yea, I'd heat with the asics for sure. I don't know much about the accounting. I know for people or companies who want those first batch releases will have us store something and they earn the interest off it. Though a local credit union should be able to do the same. For me though it's not BTC and my three jobs doesn't mean I have much to bank anyway.

What are more of the thoughts causing the dump? Really just a lot of people giving up? I thought BTC's been thought cycles similar already.

[sidehack]

Has it ever been on a downward trend this long though? It's been pretty much dropping steadily the entire year. The last major dumps I can think of were the bottom falling out of media hype bubbles, and the MtGox fiasco which revealed a whole lot of market manipulation and outright lies.