Will btc difficulty go sideways for rest of the year?

[philipma1957]

I see Alloscomp is predicting a massive 32.5% drop, how are the projected changes so different?
At either estimate, the improvement in earnings must be an incentive to "plug back in" if that's what miners have been doing, or do you think that the BCash scenario is still in play?
Are coins like NMC more profitable?
Sorry for the non miner questions.

https://i.imgur.com/MFu2WhM.png

Something is happening behind the scenes.

I think real drop will be more like 16%.

I don't cover NMC diff rate  I have no idea about it.  It always was lower then BTC diff that is about all I know about it.

this site below is most likely most accurate current number.

Latest Block:   551931  (8 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   86.0327%  (1564 / 1817.91 expected, 253.91 behind)
Current Difficulty:   6653303141405.96XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 5726487111373 and 5766869514893
Next Difficulty Change:   between -13.9302% and -13.3232%
Previous Retarget:   November 16, 2018 at 6:43 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 10:31 PM  (in 3d 12h 49m 17s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Monday at 1:16 AM  (in 3d 15h 33m 49s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 16d 3h 48m 25s and 16d 6h 32m 57s

[Norm MacDonald]

I see Alloscomp is predicting a massive 32.5% drop, how are the projected changes so different?

While us Miners would like this, wouldn't this portend some very negative overall fundamentals? My guess is "no" because the massive size of the overall network. Anyone?

[rifleman74]

From BTC.com

Next Difficulty Estimated
(-13.13%) 5.78 T
Date to Next Difficulty
3 Days 15 Hours

There have been quite a few fairly decent-sized farms that have shut down for now.

[philipma1957]

The -32%  prediction here

Next difficulty retarget occurs at block 551947.0 (eta 0.0 sec): 4.36411761268e+12 / -34.4% [est.]

is not accurate and unlikely to occur

We will do -10% to -17 %

we have 436 blocks left to drop down to -32%   we would need  to do under 95 blocks a day.

we did a jump on the 16 of nov  640 pm

14 days later is nov 30 640 pm 0 % this would mean we make 436 blocks in 1 days  not  happening

a 15 day epoch is 1/14 off  - 7.1 %  this would mean we make  436 blocks in 2 days not happening

a 16 day epoch is 2/14 off  -14.2 % this would mean we make  436 blocks in 3 days maybe
a 17 day epoch is 3/14 off  -21.3 % this would mean we make  436 blocks in 4 days maybe

a 18 day epoch is 4/14 off  -28.3 % this would mean we make 436 blocks in 5 days not happening
a 19 day epoch is 5/14 off  -35.3% this would mean we make 436 blocks in 6 days not happening

[Steamtyme]

we did a jump on the 16 of nov  640 pm

The last adjustment was a drop, which was very welcome.

Captain obvious but that 21 % drop would be sweet. My winter is now one if holding the mining rewards, so if we can make ground downward preferably in large leaps early on I'll be a happy camper.

[philipma1957]

The last adjustment was a drop, which was very welcome.

Captain obvious but that 21 % drop would be sweet. My winter is now one if holding the mining rewards, so if we can make ground downward preferably in large leaps early on I'll be a happy camper.

I think it does -16%

Which I will take.

[Norm MacDonald]

I think it does -16%

Which I will take.

I would welcome this as well as I do not believe the lows are in yet. Too many people running around proclaiming the bottom. I know that sounds trite but at this point "psychology" is a significant part of this equation.

[philipma1957]

I would welcome this as well as I do not believe the lows are in yet. Too many people running around proclaiming the bottom. I know that sounds trite but at this point "psychology" is a significant part of this equation.

The effect of the 27.6% tax is a large part of this.

Believe it or not 2.6% tax which is being applied backwards has also slowed sales of gear.  I have ordered more then 80,000 in gear since 2012 sometimes I paid 3% as I was over 2500 which I thought was the exemption level. So of that 80000 I paid on 40,000 of it.  Which means I owe maybe 2.6% of 40,000

2.6 % of 80000 is about 2000
2.6% of 40,000 is about 1000  Since I paid on half the gear as I was billed on larger orders I owe on say 40,000 and paid on say 40,000

of the 80000 part of that was billed in BTC not USD  25 coins worth of gear worth 10000 was purchased.  Suppose they come back to me and say those coins are valued at 20000 each which was bcc's high point that is 500,000 which is 13,000 at 2.6% or they use the current value of 4000 which is 100,000 total that is 2600 in back duty tax> I know they were worth 400 and I can prove it  but I now have a possible tax fight on my hands.

 Best case Is I don't get any bills $0  

Next best Is I get a 1000 dollar bill which is close to what I figure I owe.

But a bill for 3350 could show  750 + 2600  it would be wrong I would need to fight it.
Or a bill for   13750 could show 750 + 13000 it would be wrong I would need to fight it.

what does that translate to?  no orders from China for the next year on my part.

Lots of people in my spot.  I suspect that many USA people stopped buying gear. We all know that USA mining is not that much but I would think 10% to 20% of gear purchased from China was sent to USA.  I would suspect that has dropped a lot.

This morning shows us down around 14 %

Latest Block:   552042  (3 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   85.1649%  (1675 / 1966.77 expected, 291.77 behind) the actual number now!
Current Difficulty:   6653303141405.96XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 5668539736297 and 5692646366071
Next Difficulty Change:   between -14.8011% and -14.4388%
Previous Retarget:   November 16, 2018 at 6:43 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Monday at 3:34 AM  (in 2d 17h 3m 31s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Monday at 5:15 AM  (in 2d 18h 43m 59s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 16d 8h 51m 15s and 16d 10h 31m 43s

[Steamtyme]

Some of the bills I've seen/read people receiving on previous orders is insane. Especially to get hit with that in the current market condition is like a gut shot.

It will be interesting to see if these low cost hardware sales have any lasting impact on Diff. I have to think that some of those borderline profitable companies might take the opportunity to grab directly from Canaan.

Those firmware updates are probably going to be a wash. The efficiency will help some people keep miners online, and others to put more online and still be profitable, but the few numbers I saw so far cut the hashrate down about 25% I think. This is also contingent on most people getting the information and applying the update.

-14.8 with 222 blocks to go, let's get over 15.

[philipma1957]

I ordered an A921 last night  I will play with downclocks and run it in the garage.  It will lose money unless price jumps  but I will get some heat from it.

Last year I was doing :
7kwatts from the garage
my friends office was doing 1.5 kwatts
buysolar and I were doing 33kwatts from the array

about 41-42 kwatts
during the best months over 10000 usd a month profit

this year I am doing

3kwatts from the garage
friends office 1.5 kwatts
solar array 20kwatts
and a 4kwatt deal at 130 a month  for the 4kwatts that is about 4.5 cents

so power used is now 28-29 kwatts  and combined income under 1000 usd a month after payments.

Holding aside cash for bills from fedex dhl and ups. I am hoping for the correct bills (1000 or so)

we are close to -15%.

One good thing is I have 42th off line in s9's  and 20 th off line in the new avalon.  If there was a btc price move I could add 62th like that. this diff drop  puts me close to being able to add that hash back.

[Norm MacDonald]

Has anyone been able to extrapolate what the -15% drop would translate into dollar wise of profit increase, say for a 14th S9 paying .045 per KWH?

[philipma1957]

Has anyone been able to extrapolate what the -15% drop would translate into dollar wise of profit increase, say for a 14th S9 paying .045 per KWH?

sure  give me 1 minute

14000 gh using  1400 watts at 4.5 cents and a 6.653 diff coin price of 4300  makes 75 or 76 cents a day

 with diff drop

14000 gh using 1400 watts at 4.5 cents and a 5.653 diff coin price at 4300 makes  1.17 usd a day

[Norm MacDonald]

I'm getting around .98 cents per day net of electricity??

[philipma1957]

I'm getting around .98 cents per day net of electricity??

see my numbers above I used a coin price of 4300

[Norm MacDonald]

sure  give me 1 minute

14000 gh using  1400 watts at 4.5 cents and a 6.653 diff coin price of 4300  makes 75 or 76 cents a day

 with diff drop

14000 gh using 1400 watts at 4.5 cents and a 5.653 diff coin price at 4300 makes  1.17 usd a day

Wow....That's pretty invigorating. As in maybe, "turn a cartwheel" kind of invigorating. Thanks Philip.

[mikeywith]

1.5 days for the drop . btcwisdom is showing (5,702,705,853,580 (-14.29%)) . you almost nailed it.

i'l take 16% too   . can't wait to see another huge red candle, sideways market for a few months, more drop in the difficulty, and more BTC for me  

[philipma1957]

I am hanging in there hoping for  this to continue onward and downward 

I came up with a lot of numbers  and reasons to explain this.  My best guess is bitmain and hashnest are doing it.

[Norm MacDonald]

I am hanging in there hoping for  this to continue onward and downward  

I came up with a lot of numbers  and reasons to explain this.  My best guess is bitmain and hashnest are doing it.

I am in the same camp. Bitmain is in a very precarious position right now. Far over leveraged, New Tech bombing, sales tanking, IPO in jeopardy. Dropping massive Hash from the network is not a terrible strategy to plug some of their leaks. It's a pretty god way to kindle mining interest and possibly bring on some sales revenue. Right now their cashflow is a trickle and the weight of their inventories is dragging them under.

[qctechno_isback]

$BSV need to pump his price to be more profitable to mine than $BTC or $BAB
Godzillatoshi and friends are crashing BTC prices to make it happen.

Juhan and Roger make sure they have the longest chain, need to drain hashrate to support BAB.

BTC vs BAB vs BSV mining profitability

https://cash.coin.dance/

[philipma1957]

we are closing in on the drop  about 16-18 hours to go

Bitcoin Difficulty:   6,653,303,141,405
Estimated Next Difficulty:   5,674,530,203,616 (-14.71%)
Adjust time:   After 87 Blocks, About 17.5 hours
Hashrate(?):   36,845,106,423 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 12.1 minutes
3 blocks: 36.2 minutes
6 blocks: 1.2 hours