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Author Topic: NBA 2023-2024 betting  (Read 117713 times)
mirakal
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April 20, 2024, 03:26:36 PM
 #15181

Pels won against Sacramento so everything is set on the West, I thought that the Kings will win, but the Pelicans even without Zion played great defense and it carried them. Although we want to see Zion in the playoffs, but as you can see in this game, in the sideline, he is happy seeing his team moving to the playoff.
he is happy because probably he still have a chance to play. The godo news is that they are gonna play the OKC which I think the Pelicans have an edge in terms of experience. We've seen their defense, they can do the same with the OKC,  and I feel that it's gonna be a long series.

Although Pelicans has an experience advantage over KYC, it’s just not big since Pelicans is still composed of mid fresh players. I think CJ McCollum is the only player with them with real experience advantage since he is veteran players from Portland. OKC is full of young talented players capable of bridging the small experience gap.

OKC already proved themselves by having a good run on the regular season even against with the strong team. It’s very hard to stop on zone Shai since he is capable to use his teammates for scoring.

Not only CJ, you forgot about these two guys, Jonas Valančiūnas who has played playoff games when he was still playing with the Toronto Raptors and Brandon Ingram and some casts that are still now who were in the playoffs last year 2022 which gave the Suns a problem as the series reach to game 6 before they loss.

I'm just saying that in terms of experience the Pelicans have it, and that time in the playoffs, there's also no Zion, so it's safe to say that they are pretty much using the same line up with some minor +- on the roster.

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April 20, 2024, 06:21:03 PM
 #15182

Pels won against Sacramento so everything is set on the West, I thought that the Kings will win, but the Pelicans even without Zion played great defense and it carried them. Although we want to see Zion in the playoffs, but as you can see in this game, in the sideline, he is happy seeing his team moving to the playoff.
he is happy because probably he still have a chance to play. The godo news is that they are gonna play the OKC which I think the Pelicans have an edge in terms of experience. We've seen their defense, they can do the same with the OKC,  and I feel that it's gonna be a long series.

Although Pelicans has an experience advantage over KYC, it’s just not big since Pelicans is still composed of mid fresh players. I think CJ McCollum is the only player with them with real experience advantage since he is veteran players from Portland. OKC is full of young talented players capable of bridging the small experience gap.

OKC already proved themselves by having a good run on the regular season even against with the strong team. It’s very hard to stop on zone Shai since he is capable to use his teammates for scoring.

Not only CJ, you forgot about these two guys, Jonas Valančiūnas who has played playoff games when he was still playing with the Toronto Raptors and Brandon Ingram and some casts that are still now who were in the playoffs last year 2022 which gave the Suns a problem as the series reach to game 6 before they loss.

I'm just saying that in terms of experience the Pelicans have it, and that time in the playoffs, there's also no Zion, so it's safe to say that they are pretty much using the same line up with some minor +- on the roster.

You said it right, it's not the first time for the NP to reach this far if my memory serve it right 2022 season they got that chance playing against the Suns, now, they will be playing against the young OKC, we will see if how they'll going to work it out trying to upset the top seeded from the west side.

I would say the advantage is more likely for the OKC, fresh legs and composed of players who really got a good blends and chemistries, they just need to play the same way that they've got, rotate the ball and be aggressive to find the best shot to score.

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April 20, 2024, 09:30:39 PM
Last edit: April 21, 2024, 12:57:11 AM by morvillz7z
 #15183

Knicks ML / OG Anunoby 1+ stocks @1.78   won

The NBA playoffs are a sight for sore eyes. I was sick of those double-digit spreads in the final two months of the regular season, and we had some truly awful games.

I'm on the Knicks to take Game 1, think they have more to offer and i expect the atmosphere at the Garden to be electric.

The 76ers have Embiid back and have improved defensively, ranking second in DEFRTG /L10, but there are too many question marks on offense...who can you trust outside of Maxey and Embiid? Harris is having a down year, Oubre is a streaky shooter, no bench depth, and Lowry, at 38, is their starting point guard...i mean good luck guarding Brunson or chasing down DiVincenzo off those screens.

I also have OG's 1+ stocks added to my ticket. He is arguably the best defender in this series, 1+ stocks in 6/L6 since his return from injury.

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April 21, 2024, 06:26:15 AM
 #15184

I would say the advantage is more likely for the OKC, fresh legs and composed of players who really got a good blends and chemistries, they just need to play the same way that they've got, rotate the ball and be aggressive to find the best shot to score.
I was wondering if anyone here know the series odds for this two?.. I was looking at my bookie but I could not find the exact market, I would probably be betting on the Pelicans if the OKC is heavily favored, I people would think that the Pelicans have no chance without Zion, but I would love to try, and I believe that the Pelicans are not gonna be sweep in this match up. I can see now that the Pelicans are +8.5 in game 1... too high, isn't it?


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April 21, 2024, 09:51:29 AM
 #15185

Got it perfect, I  really like when a team got underestimated too much because they don't have their star beacuse they won most of the time, or at least cover the spread. and let's get this going.

1- Cleveland -5 win
I will continue to trust the Cleveland playing geat at home, the spread is just right, not a trappy one so let's get this one.

2-Suns +1.5 loss
They are the better team for me IMO, their playoff experience will start in this game and if this will be a close game, I think the Suns are gonna steal one game on the road.

3.Lakers+7 win
Everyone is probably expecting that the Nuggets are gonna win this game easy, I say it's going to be a close game and the Lakers might even win. I think Lebron understands how important is game 1, so expect a very physical game.  Just a side bet but not counting it on my record, I like the under  223.5.

Updated record 4(W)-3(L)..... 57%

Good start by the Lakers but like their previous match ups, Lakers still collapse in the 2nd half.
Once the Nuggets figure out the right adjustment, it seems like the Lakers have no more answer and that's what we witness in that game. I even thought they'll win but turns out they loss and unable to cover the handicap.

Let's jump to the upcoming games anyway.

Miami +14
I think Boston is just too overvalued to give this high handicap on a team that beat them in the regular season with the same line up.

Dallas -2.5
I like them to take the first win, no Leonard in this game and the Dallas are currently on a great run, it should continue here.

Pelicans +8.5
No Zion but they proved they can win, so I like taking them with this high handicap against a young OKC team.

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April 21, 2024, 04:01:41 PM
 #15186

I was able to grab some Props' bet in the playoffs game 1 matches from yesterday, Jamal Murray 6.5 Assist @ 1.90 was my favorite for the night.

The first games have been low scoring so I won't be going for Over/Under bets just yet and I'll be sticking to the player props' bets for now;

I've got Jason Tatum Over 8.5 Rebounds @ 2.05 for the first game of today;

The Heat didn't specifically shoot the ball so well in either of their play-in matches and with Butler still out, I'd expect the same and more efforts from behind the arc, while the Celtics aren't best known for giving out tons of offensive rebounds, I'm expecting Jason to be highly active in that area If Porzingis does get very well above his average minutes of the regular season.

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April 21, 2024, 11:32:28 PM
 #15187

I was late yesterday so I get to bet in just one game. The final one.


Today we only have 4 games and 2 of them started so early and it's done.
The LA Clippers got the first blood against the Mavericks and so did the Boston Celtics against the Miami Heat.

2 more games left. Here are my picks.
Milwaukee Bucks - Indiana Pacers - Indiana Pacers ML Bucks is on the lead but I know the Pacers can easily take it back as long as they play tough. No Giannis for the Bucks.
Oklahoma City Thunder - New Orleans Pelicans - Oklahoma City Thunder (-10.5) Home advantage and definitely a strong team, the Thunder will get the win on this game. I just wish the spreads will be covered.

Good luck everyone.

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April 22, 2024, 12:03:12 AM
 #15188

@stadus will be only betting on the last game of the day for the play-offs with the Pelicans vs Thunder.
As you said Zion is still out and seen him during that play-in game where he left in the final minutes to the locker room not to return. So I think OKC and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be too much for the Pels missing their star player today.

@danherbias07 I like the -10.5 for the Thunder too but instead went for the win & over 213.5 in a combo bet because I put it in a nice 10.52x acca.

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April 22, 2024, 12:47:18 AM
 #15189

I bought a point down with my OKC spread (-7.5), it might not matter as much, but it's better to be safe against the best road team.

With or without Zion i'll always ride with OKC, thinking they'd be one of the toughest teams to beat at home.



The under is also tempting to bet on the playoffs, but after watching the Celtics game it's tough knowing the other team can start fouling or push the pace to hit the over.

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April 22, 2024, 03:19:03 AM
 #15190

I bought a point down with my OKC spread (-7.5), it might not matter as much, but it's better to be safe against the best road team.

With or without Zion i'll always ride with OKC, thinking they'd be one of the toughest teams to beat at home.

https://talkimg.com/images/2024/04/22/j8p3j.png

The under is also tempting to bet on the playoffs, but after watching the Celtics game it's tough knowing the other team can start fouling or push the pace to hit the over.
Zion Williamson is a big loss for New Orlean Pelicans right now. As you can see, the New Orleans Pelicans are having a hard time inside the perimeter.
What I observe in this game is New Orleans Pelicans are attacking mostly in the outside of the perimeter and they are still able to make points and still have a good fight with OKC Thunder.
I'm OKC Thunder on this game but with your handicap, it is kinda risky.

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April 22, 2024, 05:23:41 AM
 #15191

I bought a point down with my OKC spread (-7.5), it might not matter as much, but it's better to be safe against the best road team.

With or without Zion i'll always ride with OKC, thinking they'd be one of the toughest teams to beat at home.

https://talkimg.com/images/2024/04/22/j8p3j.png

The under is also tempting to bet on the playoffs, but after watching the Celtics game it's tough knowing the other team can start fouling or push the pace to hit the over.
Zion Williamson is a big loss for New Orlean Pelicans right now. As you can see, the New Orleans Pelicans are having a hard time inside the perimeter.
What I observe in this game is New Orleans Pelicans are attacking mostly in the outside of the perimeter and they are still able to make points and still have a good fight with OKC Thunder.
I'm OKC Thunder on this game but with your handicap, it is kinda risky.
This series is fun, I thought that OKC would dominate but turned out they are struggling against the Zion-less Pelicans, they are lucky to have won the game in a close game, just a 2 point win by the young OKC. Game 2 would be crucial, for sure adjustments will be made but one thing is clear, the currently line up of the Pelicans are strong enough to give OKC a better series. Still rooting for the Pelicans handicap in game 2.

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April 22, 2024, 11:59:02 AM
 #15192

I bet early on the Cavs vs Orlando Magic.

I pick Orlando at +5.5, they've lost big in game 1, but I think Paolo will come back here against Donovan Mitchell and try to steal this one or at least make it a competitive fight and will not lose on some double digit margin.

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April 22, 2024, 02:36:43 PM
 #15193

Good start by the Lakers but like their previous match ups, Lakers still collapse in the 2nd half.
Once the Nuggets figure out the right adjustment, it seems like the Lakers have no more answer and that's what we witness in that game. I even thought they'll win but turns out they loss and unable to cover the handicap.

Let's jump to the upcoming games anyway.

Miami +14 (loss)
I think Boston is just too overvalued to give this high handicap on a team that beat them in the regular season with the same line up.

Dallas -2.5 (loss)
I like them to take the first win, no Leonard in this game and the Dallas are currently on a great run, it should continue here.

Pelicans +8.5 (win)
No Zion but they proved they can win, so I like taking them with this high handicap against a young OKC team.

Updated record 5(W)-5(L)..... 50%

For the upcoming games, I'm betting on the underdogs as they are trying to even the series.

1-Magic +5.5
Last time they loss by blowout, they should make the right adjustment in game 2. better ball movement to find an open man so they can improve their FG percentage.

2- Lakers +7
They almost made it in game 1 but collapse in the 2nd half, that cannot happen again. If they lose, at least a chance to cover is high.

3-Sixers +6
I believe they are the better team, Embiid has to play like an MVP, dominate the paint like he usually does.

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April 22, 2024, 03:58:07 PM
 #15194

I lost both my bets. I didn't expect the Pelicans to play that good against the top seed of the West. But, that gave us an idea that we should not be underestimating the teams in the playoffs now. They will be playing as hard as they can especially in the road to snatch one game away from the home team.

We have 3 games later. Here are my picks.
Cleveland Cavaliers - Orlando Magic - Orlando Magic (6.5)
New York Knicks - Philadelphia 76ers - New York Knicks (-3.5) - No Embiid if I am not mistaken after he hurt himself doing the superb dunk.
Denver Nuggets - Los Angeles Lakers - Denver Nuggets (-5.5) - The Nuggets showed their strength in their home, they gained the momentum and I don't think it can be stopped easily.

Good luck everyone.

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April 22, 2024, 09:08:57 PM
 #15195

Didn't bet the first 2 days I wanted to get a lay of the land.  But betting all 3 games tonight.  Here are my 3:

Orlando +5.5. I know they are away and cleveland handled them pretty well but orlando is young and hungry.  Think they cover in a close game

Knicks -5.5. With embid hurting and Maxey game time decision with a sickness I think knicks roll them by 10+ tonight.  Brunson won't have that bad a game tonight.

Denver -5.5. Champs at home with a low spread.  Will take them all day at this spread.

Good luck and enjoy the games!

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April 22, 2024, 09:41:35 PM
Last edit: April 23, 2024, 02:20:08 AM by morvillz7z
 #15196

J. Hart 1+ 3pts / M. Robinson 1+ blocks @1.80  X

Game 1 of PHI/NY is arguably one of the swingiest quarter-to-quarter games i've seen in a while (1Q PHI+9, 2Q NY+21, 3Q PHI+15, 4Q NY+10).

A couple of things that stood out to me, which i want to include in my bet today. The Sixers are playing Brunson and DiVincenzo tight and giving J. Hart wide-open looks from deep, daring him to shoot like he is Ben Simmons. Lol  I mean, it's not the worst strategy, Hart is only shooting 31% from three this season, you'd rather leave him open than someone else, right?

M. Robinson played 30 minutes, his most since returning from injury. Even if he continues to come off the bench, his minutes are safe, he matches up better with Embiid than Hartenstein. He had four blocks in Game 1, but it felt like it was twice as many, he was that dominant defensively.

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April 22, 2024, 10:52:21 PM
 #15197

I'm torn on which spread to take for the Cavs vs. Magic game. From what I can imagine, the Cavs would cruise again and win by double digits. Then again, the Magic showed they can always be a threat, during the third quarter of the first game, they almost clawed their way back from a double-digit deficit.

I'll wing it on the under 206.5 points and ride the under while it's hot as we could be in for another low-scoring game.


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April 23, 2024, 12:17:10 AM
 #15198

I'm torn on which spread to take for the Cavs vs. Magic game. From what I can imagine, the Cavs would cruise again and win by double digits. Then again, the Magic showed they can always be a threat, during the third quarter of the first game, they almost clawed their way back from a double-digit deficit.

I'll wing it on the under 206.5 points and ride the under while it's hot as we could be in for another low-scoring game.


Looks a great bet decision to me, all the playoffs matches so far have been a massive Under on the total spread, and you can't easily expect yet another low scoring game from Magic and Cavs teams that usually go extremely cold for 2 or more quarters in every game, the 3rd and 4th Quarters are usually where they have their scoring inefficiency.



I've got another player props' bet for tonight and it's on the Joker for game 2 vs Lakers.

I'm going with Jokic Over 12.5 Rebs @ 1.90 Odds


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April 23, 2024, 12:25:56 AM
 #15199

I bet early on the Cavs vs Orlando Magic.

I pick Orlando at +5.5, they've lost big in game 1, but I think Paolo will come back here against Donovan Mitchell and try to steal this one or at least make it a competitive fight and will not lose on some double digit margin.

Cavs still playing very good basketball at their homecourt, end of first half, Cavs leads the game 58-44. Banchero had another worst shooting night with just 6 points here and it's not as competitive as you call it.

Joel Embiid was able to play for the Sixers tonight, and leading against the Knicks.

R


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April 23, 2024, 02:04:29 AM
 #15200

Looks a great bet decision to me, all the playoffs matches so far have been a massive Under on the total spread, and you can't easily expect yet another low scoring game from Magic and Cavs teams that usually go extremely cold for 2 or more quarters in every game, the 3rd and 4th Quarters are usually where they have their scoring inefficiency.
You are on point with that low-scoring second half when their pace got faster in the second quarter, the live totals shot back up from 196.5 to 203.5. I thought they'd start to put in more points after that change of pace, but things slowed down as they only scored 30-40 points in the last two quarters.

Good luck with your Jokic props he got 12 last meeting, so there's a good chance he'll get more than that.

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