After Chinese new year BTC price will rise?

[DeathAngel]

I don’t think Chinese New Year affects the bitcoin price at all. The price will likely begin to recover as we seem to be nearing the end of the bear market but that isn’t connected to Chinese NY imo.

[Wilhelm]

People tend to correlate unrelated things, to justify a hunch....

[goaldigger]

I think chinese new year affects the market because there are a big portion of chinese on cryptocurrency. We all know that chinese people are mostly rich and maybe they also interested all in cypto. If this is real, chinese new year will really makes a difference or its just a pretty coincidence.

[Taki]

Well if the point of dropping before the Chinese new year and raising back on the same price I guess it's pretty possible. But I wouldn't bet on this like 100%, as I know trading of crypto is banned in China, so not so much people from there will be able to sell coins at all.

[stompix]

People have been trying to relate holidays and big events to price movements and always end up in disappointments. Well there are cases in which such events brought insane price action, but from the looks of the market (with low volumes on exchanges very recently), I don't think something significant and positive will happen after the Chinese New Year.

I think that last year every holiday or religious day was seen as a reason for either price growth or slip
Is market down due to Eid of muslims?


I'm seriously waiting for a topic like
"My cat *** 3 times in a row, and I haven't seen this since 2017, does this mean the price will go up?"

I think chinese new year affects the market because there are a big portion of chinese on cryptocurrency. We all know that chinese people are mostly rich and maybe they also interested all in cypto. If this is real, chinese new year will really makes a difference or its just a pretty coincidence.

Sorry but since 2013 nobody really gives a damn about Chinese overinflated numbers.

Another probable scenario is going sideways for a long time, then price starts creeping up slowly, and this is how typically FOMO is formed, everyone that was waiting on the sidelines start getting nervous and a bullish chain reaction is created.

And that is going to form another bubble and that will also pop and we will end again with one,two ..six years of bear market, and at one point people are going to really get tired of those cycles and there will no next one.
We either have linear small constant growth reflected by RL usage or a coin that jumps up and down by orders of 10, that is used solely to manipulate and fleece small investors.

[South Park]

every year before Chinese new year around 2-4week BTC price alway drop like last year from 11xxx in 28 jan drop to 62xx in 06 feb.

after Chinese new year (16 feb 2018) price rise back  do you think this year is same pattern?

Trying to make predictions like that is completely useless, just because the price of bitcoin has moved in a certain way during a specific time does not guarantee that it will happen again, just look at what happened during the end of the previous year, for some years bitcoins had the tendency to go up at the end of the year and so everyone was expecting a recovery and it did not happen and this only created even more desperation among those that were waiting for a price increase.

[exstasie]

We are in the bear market and its hard to tell when we will hit the bottom. Even if Bakkt goes live in a month or 2, it doesn't mean the price will go up necessarily.

It's always hard to tell when the bottom is in. This is particularly so because no two bottoms will ever look the same. So everyone expecting things to play out exactly like 2014-2015 are likely to be disappointed.

I agree, people are putting too much emphasis on Bakkt. Institutions are patient and usually accumulate over long periods. They're unlikely to just start pumping BTC because Bakkt launches. That's wishful thinking.

Plus, there are things like "hidden leverage" that Bakkt might encourage which can dilute the perceived supply. This can suppress the price.

[KennyR]

China being an early contributor to the growth of cryptocurrency in its early days have a big impact on the price movement. As per data every Chinese new year has caused price bumping around the time period. As the market is much downtrodden, a forward push at least by that time period will give a positive growth and lets to massive adoption which is lacking.

[michellee]

I don't know about that, it could happen, but it's no guarantee the bitcoin price can get down as before. But all of us still have the same hope which is bitcoin price can increase, and it is starting to rally to the higher price. But if we see the chart yearly, bitcoin started to rally after February so we can hope it will happen again in this year and if that happens, then it is a good start for bitcoin to rise and recover the price.

[timerland]

every year before Chinese new year around 2-4week BTC price alway drop like last year from 11xxx in 28 jan drop to 62xx in 06 feb.

after Chinese new year (16 feb 2018) price rise back  do you think this year is same pattern?

I don't think that there are any fundamentals to back this one up.

Sure, some Chinese bitcoin investors may be inclined to sell before the CNY in order to celebrate the festival, but apart from that, I don't see any sizeable drop in demand that would suggest that bitcoin prices before the CNY should drop drastically. Nor are there any fundamentals that are able to justify predicting the rise in price after the CNY.

I personally think that it could be possible given that a lot of bitcoin traders do believe in this, and it could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

But at the end of the day, even if a bull run does emerge out of the CNY, I don't think it will be long lived. The markets are still extremely bearish sentimented and I don't think a recovery is coming in the first half of the year.

[hahay]

Chances are yes, it looks like in February this will be the beginning of the pump running and towards the Chinese New Year I see an upward movement happening, maybe this is just a refresher or something, but chances are we will see positive changes to the crypto market at least I'll wait for a change until the end of this month, if it passes then it is likely that prices may fall lower.

[xuan87]

Usually there will be a rising, from the psychology view the Chinese investors going to sell some of the coin before Chinese New year and going to buy again few week after the Chinese New year, but the market is unpredictable at moment alot of thing has been going in different way, so it can be a reference but can't be rely on 100%

[mirakal]

every year before Chinese new year around 2-4week BTC price alway drop like last year from 11xxx in 28 jan drop to 62xx in 06 feb.

after Chinese new year (16 feb 2018) price rise back  do you think this year is same pattern?

I don't think we should based the past to see the future, it's different now and we all witness what happen.

All we can do now is just hope that the price will rise again, even if it's not gonna happen after the Chinese new year, this market has still
a big room to grow, it could be next moth or this month but one thing is sure, I'll hold still.

[shoreno]

I think chinese new year affects the market because there are a big portion of chinese on cryptocurrency. We all know that chinese people are mostly rich and maybe they also interested all in cypto. If this is real, chinese new year will really makes a difference or its just a pretty coincidence.

Yes we already know it but what op wants to know if the price of btc could rise or not . you can simply answer the question yes or no  . 

Imo price will fall because people tend to sell , not only chinese but almost crypto holders because they want to celebrate on this event . they will sell because they need funds to in order to prepare for their food and also to have a pocket money when roaming around the city .

[whiteblue]

such a possibility because surely the Chinese will buy some bitcoin and will move the price of bitcoin again, this event often occurs even though the price increase is not too much but surely the price will rise and you should be able to know that all possible bitcoin price movements can occur.

[hatshepsut93]

every year before Chinese new year around 2-4week BTC price alway drop like last year from 11xxx in 28 jan drop to 62xx in 06 feb.

after Chinese new year (16 feb 2018) price rise back  do you think this year is same pattern?

Bitcoin traditionally has showed very little correlation with any sort of real-world events, especially those that are not directly related to Bitcoin, like Chinese new year or holidays in general. I think it's safe to assume that all such ideas are just myths born out of desperate need to explain the unpredictable Bitcoin price movements. People were always looking back at the most recent events and try to fit them into an explanation of how they caused the price change, and many have believed it and now try to predict the future, but in fact most of the time there's no such mechanism.

[kateycoin]

every year before Chinese new year around 2-4week BTC price alway drop like last year from 11xxx in 28 jan drop to 62xx in 06 feb.

after Chinese new year (16 feb 2018) price rise back  do you think this year is same pattern?

Well as we can there's nothing changes in price of bitcoin until now we experience the bear market. And no one can tell when this bear season will end because many cryptocians is losing there investment. But hopefully soon the market will be back on track again in higher level.

[Dreamchaser21]

every year before Chinese new year around 2-4week BTC price alway drop like last year from 11xxx in 28 jan drop to 62xx in 06 feb.

after Chinese new year (16 feb 2018) price rise back  do you think this year is same pattern?

I hope so but of course its not that big news that can pump easily the price of bitcoin but who knows, everything is possible so hope for the best. May the Chinese new year gives us luck and to prosper us for the whole year of 2019. So try to invest now, and secure some profit if the uptrend comes in.

[peter0425]

every year before Chinese new year around 2-4week BTC price alway drop like last year from 11xxx in 28 jan drop to 62xx in 06 feb.

after Chinese new year (16 feb 2018) price rise back  do you think this year is same pattern?

I hope so but of course its not that big news that can pump easily the price of bitcoin but who knows, everything is possible so hope for the best. May the Chinese new year gives us luck and to prosper us for the whole year of 2019. So try to invest now, and secure some profit if the uptrend comes in.

Well that's the thing we can only cling right now - hope. But I will echo the sentiments of most posters here. I never seen any holiday for that matter affecting the price, much more Chinese new year. And we all know that the Chinese government have been cracking down on bitcoin so it will be a challenge for casuals or even big investors from China to pump the price after their new year.

[deisik]

every year before Chinese new year around 2-4week BTC price alway drop like last year from 11xxx in 28 jan drop to 62xx in 06 feb.

after Chinese new year (16 feb 2018) price rise back  do you think this year is same pattern?

Yes, there's definitely some pattern here

As every year on this very forum there is a thread popping up about the effects of the Chinese new year on the Bitcoin price. Do you also think it is not an entirely random event? Kidding aside, I suspect that what we are dealing with here is called selection bias. You see, it is normal for Bitcoin price to drop every other week (and rise on odd weeks), so you can take any year and find out that Bitcoin price always drops within 2-4 weeks before the Chinese new year. Just like 2-4 weeks after it