2020 Democrats

[suchmoon]

Joe Biden is going to win, but has absolutely no chance at beating Trump

There should be an age limit. What's the Social Security retirement age these days? 67? Sounds about right for politicians too.

[TwitchySeal]

Mayor Pete is the best overall option IMO, but he will not win.  Joe Biden is going to win, but has absolutely no chance at beating Trump (He's a creepy old man with dinosaur politics.  Ex- not wanting to legalize marijuana which would be an obviously powerful tool for him to use).

I agree about pete, he would be the most difficult for Trump to attack.  What's he going to do, call him a homo? 

Petes biggest hurdle is that Black people don't like him.  Pete with an Obama endorsement and Booker or Kamala as VP would be very solid - but not much of a chance of that happening unless Biden drops out for some reason.  Promising future for 2024 or later though, unless he fucks up in the next few months.

[squatz1]

Mayor Pete is the best overall option IMO, but he will not win.  Joe Biden is going to win, but has absolutely no chance at beating Trump (He's a creepy old man with dinosaur politics.  Ex- not wanting to legalize marijuana which would be an obviously powerful tool for him to use).

I agree about pete, he would be the most difficult for Trump to attack.  What's he going to do, call him a homo? 

Petes biggest hurdle is that Black people don't like him.  Pete with an Obama endorsement and Booker or Kamala as VP would be very solid - but not much of a chance of that happening unless Biden drops out for some reason.  Promising future for 2024 or later though, unless he fucks up in the next few months.

This isn't mean to sound rude or anything along those lines, but I don't think that the country is ready yet to elect a gay person.

I've heard of some polls in some podcast that I listen to that were saying that most black men aren't ready to even support a black women for president, let alone a gay guy.

Pete has no real values imo. His campaign will not last too long, but how long will HIGHLY depend on how he does in Iowa, NH.

[TECSHARE]

Mayor Pete is the best overall option IMO, but he will not win.  Joe Biden is going to win, but has absolutely no chance at beating Trump (He's a creepy old man with dinosaur politics.  Ex- not wanting to legalize marijuana which would be an obviously powerful tool for him to use).

I agree about pete, he would be the most difficult for Trump to attack.  What's he going to do, call him a homo? 

Petes biggest hurdle is that Black people don't like him.  Pete with an Obama endorsement and Booker or Kamala as VP would be very solid - but not much of a chance of that happening unless Biden drops out for some reason.  Promising future for 2024 or later though, unless he fucks up in the next few months.

This isn't mean to sound rude or anything along those lines, but I don't think that the country is ready yet to elect a gay person.

I've heard of some polls in some podcast that I listen to that were saying that most black men aren't ready to even support a black women for president, let alone a gay guy.

Pete has no real values imo. His campaign will not last too long, but how long will HIGHLY depend on how he does in Iowa, NH.

If he had good policies no one would care how much he likes wieners. This identity politics crap is trash. It is not about being a woman, black, or gay, it is because they are shit candidates.

[TwitchySeal]

Mayor Pete is the best overall option IMO, but he will not win.  Joe Biden is going to win, but has absolutely no chance at beating Trump (He's a creepy old man with dinosaur politics.  Ex- not wanting to legalize marijuana which would be an obviously powerful tool for him to use).

I agree about pete, he would be the most difficult for Trump to attack.  What's he going to do, call him a homo? 

Petes biggest hurdle is that Black people don't like him.  Pete with an Obama endorsement and Booker or Kamala as VP would be very solid - but not much of a chance of that happening unless Biden drops out for some reason.  Promising future for 2024 or later though, unless he fucks up in the next few months.

This isn't mean to sound rude or anything along those lines, but I don't think that the country is ready yet to elect a gay person.

I've heard of some polls in some podcast that I listen to that were saying that most black men aren't ready to even support a black women for president, let alone a gay guy.

Pete has no real values imo. His campaign will not last too long, but how long will HIGHLY depend on how he does in Iowa, NH.

If he had good policies no one would care how much he likes wieners. This identity politics crap is trash. It is not about being a woman, black, or gay, it is because they are shit candidates.

Sadly you are mistaken.

For example, Pete will get 0 votes from Christian evangelicals and many other religious people won't vote for him simply because he's gay. 

I think the country is progressive enough that he could overcome it, but it's possible squatz is right.

[TECSHARE]

Sadly you are mistaken.

For example, Pete will get 0 votes from Christian evangelicals and many other religious people won't vote for him simply because he's gay. 

I think the country is progressive enough that he could overcome it, but it's possible squatz is right.

TIL you speak for all Christian evangelicals. You learn something new every day. What were we just discussing? Prejudice?

[TwitchySeal]

Sadly you are mistaken.

For example, Pete will get 0 votes from Christian evangelicals and many other religious people won't vote for him simply because he's gay.  

I think the country is progressive enough that he could overcome it, but it's possible squatz is right.

TIL you speak for all Christian evangelicals. You learn something new every day. What were we just discussing? Prejudice?

We were discussing how Petes sexuality could affect his shot at the presidency.  

[TECSHARE]

Sadly you are mistaken.

For example, Pete will get 0 votes from Christian evangelicals and many other religious people won't vote for him simply because he's gay.  

I think the country is progressive enough that he could overcome it, but it's possible squatz is right.

TIL you speak for all Christian evangelicals. You learn something new every day. What were we just discussing? Prejudice?

We were discussing how Petes sexuality could affect his shot at the presidency.  

Right, prejudice. Funny how it only matters when it goes the way you don't agree with.

[BADecker]

Sadly you are mistaken.

For example, Pete will get 0 votes from Christian evangelicals and many other religious people won't vote for him simply because he's gay.  

I think the country is progressive enough that he could overcome it, but it's possible squatz is right.

TIL you speak for all Christian evangelicals. You learn something new every day. What were we just discussing? Prejudice?

We were discussing how Petes sexuality could affect his shot at the presidency.  

That's not a dress. It's a kilt.     

[squatz1]

Mayor Pete is the best overall option IMO, but he will not win.  Joe Biden is going to win, but has absolutely no chance at beating Trump (He's a creepy old man with dinosaur politics.  Ex- not wanting to legalize marijuana which would be an obviously powerful tool for him to use).

I agree about pete, he would be the most difficult for Trump to attack.  What's he going to do, call him a homo? 

Petes biggest hurdle is that Black people don't like him.  Pete with an Obama endorsement and Booker or Kamala as VP would be very solid - but not much of a chance of that happening unless Biden drops out for some reason.  Promising future for 2024 or later though, unless he fucks up in the next few months.

This isn't mean to sound rude or anything along those lines, but I don't think that the country is ready yet to elect a gay person.

I've heard of some polls in some podcast that I listen to that were saying that most black men aren't ready to even support a black women for president, let alone a gay guy.

Pete has no real values imo. His campaign will not last too long, but how long will HIGHLY depend on how he does in Iowa, NH.

If he had good policies no one would care how much he likes wieners. This identity politics crap is trash. It is not about being a woman, black, or gay, it is because they are shit candidates.

Sadly you are mistaken.

For example, Pete will get 0 votes from Christian evangelicals and many other religious people won't vote for him simply because he's gay. 

I think the country is progressive enough that he could overcome it, but it's possible squatz is right.

I think this is a pretty big issue for a good deal of voting groups, and I think it's fair to say that conservative / religious groups are one of those groups of people.

But at the end of the day I think the best thing to look at is the polls here - https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/30/pete-buttigieg-gay-president-poll-061350

[TwitchySeal]

Biden campaign just dropped a pretty solid attack ad on Trump: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUSdf-_xmJg

[btcusury]

This isn't mean to sound rude or anything along those lines, but I don't think that the country is ready yet to elect a gay person.

That already happened in 2008 with Obama, who is thoroughly gay (although not officially). The same was said by the merchants of identity politics back then: the country ain't ready for a black president. And of course one of the many reasons Killary didn't win was that she's a woman (not that she's the most corrupt candidate ever). Being gay is less of a selling point than being black or a woman though due to the Christian voting bloc, that's true.


Seems like Bloomberg is already flopping. All the money in the world won't serve you without some level of charisma. Not supporting communist dictators (because you are one yourself) could help too.

The Deep State currently have no viable candidate except Killary, and that's why More and More People Are Waking Up to the Likelihood of Trump Being Reelected.

[TwitchySeal]

This isn't mean to sound rude or anything along those lines, but I don't think that the country is ready yet to elect a gay person.

That already happened in 2008 with Obama, who is thoroughly gay (although not officially).

That sounds like something people who don't like Obama made up, which is pretty messed up on multiple levels.  It's pretty accepted among historians that James Buchanan was gay though.  That was before the civil war though, so doesn't really change what squatz said.

How do we know Buchanan and King were a couple? In 1844, after King assumed his posting in Paris, Buchanan wrote a letter to a friend, complaining about being alone and not being able to find the right gentleman partner:

“I am now ‘solitary and alone,’ having no companion in the house with me. I have gone a wooing to several gentlemen, but have not succeeded with any one of them. I feel that it is not good for man to be alone; and should not be astonished to find myself married to some old maid who can nurse me when I am sick, provide good dinners for me when I am well, and not expect from me any very ardent or romantic affection.”

Their peers knew about their relationship, which Buchanan and King made no real effort to hide. Andrew Jackson referred to King as “Miss Nancy”— a euphemism for a gay man.

Other contemporaries called King Buchanan’s “better half,” and one congressman referred to him as “Mrs. B.” All this would be quite peculiar if Buchanan was not gay. And we are not likely to get more explicit acknowledgment because both Buchanan and King had their personal papers burned after death.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/pete-buttigieg-wouldnt-be-americas-first-gay-president/2019/03/26/0b7b1eb4-41de-11e9-922c-64d6b7840b82_story.html

[theymos]

I think this is a pretty big issue for a good deal of voting groups, and I think it's fair to say that conservative / religious groups are one of those groups of people.

But at the end of the day I think the best thing to look at is the polls here - https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/30/pete-buttigieg-gay-president-poll-061350

A lot of people will at a conscious level think, "I'm tolerant, I'd definitely vote for a gay president," but subconsciously they'll be a little uncomfortable with it, and if they're not sure who to vote for, this'll tip the scales. This subconscious effect is best captured in neighbor polling, where "your neighbors" IMO ends up being a proxy for "your community's collective subconscious":

That gap grew even wider when voters were asked whether they thought their neighbors were ready for a gay president. About a quarter of respondents answered affirmatively, while 46 percent said their neighbors were either definitely or probably not ready for a gay president. Pluralities of both Democrats and Republicans, as well as independents, all said they did not believe that their neighbors were ready for a gay president.

This might bode poorly for him in a general election, though I doubt that a lot of people are wavering on whether to vote for Trump or not -- most people either love him or hate him --, and the LGBT thing is an effect which pushes most people only slightly. Also, any negative effect will be counterbalanced to some extent by some LGBT people being actively driven to vote for him.

Also, keep in mind that only a few states actually matter:
Florida
  29 EC votes
  Cook Political Report: Toss up
  lgbtmap.com LGBT per capita: 4.6%
  lgbtmap.com rating (higher = more pro-LGBT laws): 7/40.5
Pennsylvania
  20 EC votes
  Toss up
  LGBT per capita: 4.1%
  lgbtmap rating: 15
North Carolina
  15 EC votes
  Toss up
  LGBT per capita: 4.0%
  lgbtmap rating: 3.5
Arizona
  11 EC votes
  Toss up
  LGBT per capita: 4.5%
  lgbtmap rating: 3.75
Wisconsin
  10 EC votes
  Toss up
  LGBT per capita: 3.8%
  lgbtmap rating: 13.5
------------
Michigan
  16 EC votes
  Lean Dem
  LGBT per capita: 4.0%
  lgbtmap rating: 14.5
Minnesota
  10 EC votes
  Lean Dem
  LGBT per capita: 4.1%
  lgbtmap rating: 28.25
New Hampshire
  4 EC votes
  Lean Dem
  LGBT per capita: 4.7%
  lgbtmap rating: 18
Maine at large
  2 EC votes
  Lean Dem
  LGBT per capita: 4.9%
  lgbtmap rating: 27
------------
Ohio
  18 EC votes
  Lean Rep
  LGBT per capita: 4.3%
  lgbtmap rating: 1.75
Georgia
  16 EC votes
  Lean Rep
  LGBT per capita: 4.5%
  lgbtmap rating: -1.5
Iowa
  6 EC votes
  Lean Rep
  LGBT per capita: 3.6%
  lgbtmap rating: 14.5
Maine's 2nd
  1 EC vote
  Lean Rep
  LGBT per capita: 4.9%
  lgbtmap rating: 27
Nebraska's 2nd
  1 EC vote
  Lean Rep
  LGBT per capita: 3.8%
  lgbtmap rating: -0.5
From that initial data, maybe these states would be pushed a bit toward Trump due to the LGBT issue: North Carolina, Ohio, and Georgia? I'd like to see per-state polling on this, especially with the neighbor question.

[coins4commies]

The media was ramming polling data down our throats while Bernie was dipping.  A few weeks ago, they were telling us mayor Pete was the guy to beat.  Now, that new polls have come out against their narrative, they aren't mentioning them and there are barely any articles online about the polls. 

[KennyR]

Joe Biden is going to win, but has absolutely no chance at beating Trump

There should be an age limit. What's the Social Security retirement age these days? 67? Sounds about right for politicians too.

There needs to be age limits to be a presidential candidate. No country has got such limitations which is unfair when we think of the working people who gets retired at certain age. In my country people who have earned good, during their older days for fame get into politics and end their lives.

[BADecker]

Joe Biden is going to win, but has absolutely no chance at beating Trump

There should be an age limit. What's the Social Security retirement age these days? 67? Sounds about right for politicians too.

There needs to be age limits to be a presidential candidate. No country has got such limitations which is unfair when we think of the working people who gets retired at certain age. In my country people who have earned good, during their older days for fame get into politics and end their lives.

There is such an age limit. But it is not the same for everybody. It's called death.

[Spendulus]

I think this is a pretty big issue for a good deal of voting groups, and I think it's fair to say that conservative / religious groups are one of those groups of people.

But at the end of the day I think the best thing to look at is the polls here - https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/30/pete-buttigieg-gay-president-poll-061350

A lot of people will at a conscious level think, "I'm tolerant, I'd definitely vote for a gay president," but subconsciously they'll be a little uncomfortable with it, and if they're not sure who to vote for, this'll tip the scales. This subconscious effect is best captured in neighbor polling, where "your neighbors" IMO ends up being a proxy for "your community's collective subconscious":

That gap grew even wider when voters were asked whether they thought their neighbors were ready for a gay president. About a quarter of respondents answered affirmatively, while 46 percent said their neighbors were either definitely or probably not ready for a gay president. Pluralities of both Democrats and Republicans, as well as independents, all said they did not believe that their neighbors were ready for a gay president.

This might bode poorly for him in a general election, though I doubt that a lot of people are wavering on whether to vote for Trump or not -- most people either love him or hate him --, and the LGBT thing is an effect which pushes most people only slightly. Also, any negative effect will be counterbalanced to some extent by some LGBT people being actively driven to vote for him.
....

If all that was true, how did Hillary run at all? By avoiding this delicate issue?

[TwitchySeal]

I think this is a pretty big issue for a good deal of voting groups, and I think it's fair to say that conservative / religious groups are one of those groups of people.

But at the end of the day I think the best thing to look at is the polls here - https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/30/pete-buttigieg-gay-president-poll-061350

A lot of people will at a conscious level think, "I'm tolerant, I'd definitely vote for a gay president," but subconsciously they'll be a little uncomfortable with it, and if they're not sure who to vote for, this'll tip the scales. This subconscious effect is best captured in neighbor polling, where "your neighbors" IMO ends up being a proxy for "your community's collective subconscious":

That gap grew even wider when voters were asked whether they thought their neighbors were ready for a gay president. About a quarter of respondents answered affirmatively, while 46 percent said their neighbors were either definitely or probably not ready for a gay president. Pluralities of both Democrats and Republicans, as well as independents, all said they did not believe that their neighbors were ready for a gay president.

This might bode poorly for him in a general election, though I doubt that a lot of people are wavering on whether to vote for Trump or not -- most people either love him or hate him --, and the LGBT thing is an effect which pushes most people only slightly. Also, any negative effect will be counterbalanced to some extent by some LGBT people being actively driven to vote for him.
....

If all that was true, how did Hillary run at all? By avoiding this delicate issue?

She filed with the FEC?

[Spendulus]

I think this is a pretty big issue for a good deal of voting groups, and I think it's fair to say that conservative / religious groups are one of those groups of people.

But at the end of the day I think the best thing to look at is the polls here - https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/30/pete-buttigieg-gay-president-poll-061350

A lot of people will at a conscious level think, "I'm tolerant, I'd definitely vote for a gay president," but subconsciously they'll be a little uncomfortable with it, and if they're not sure who to vote for, this'll tip the scales. This subconscious effect is best captured in neighbor polling, where "your neighbors" IMO ends up being a proxy for "your community's collective subconscious":

That gap grew even wider when voters were asked whether they thought their neighbors were ready for a gay president. About a quarter of respondents answered affirmatively, while 46 percent said their neighbors were either definitely or probably not ready for a gay president. Pluralities of both Democrats and Republicans, as well as independents, all said they did not believe that their neighbors were ready for a gay president.

This might bode poorly for him in a general election, though I doubt that a lot of people are wavering on whether to vote for Trump or not -- most people either love him or hate him --, and the LGBT thing is an effect which pushes most people only slightly. Also, any negative effect will be counterbalanced to some extent by some LGBT people being actively driven to vote for him.
....

If all that was true, how did Hillary run at all? By avoiding this delicate issue?

She filed with the FEC?

Well that does solve the riddle.