Buy the DIP, and HODL!

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

You provide good advice and input for those who read your arguments, especially @JayJuanGee who never wants to budge but your words make a lot of sense and there is a lot of truth in each argument when I read it.
 
and I just want to comment on the topic title?
because for now I am using DIP method instead of Hodl for bitcoin which I think is a good choice and also a good time for me to add my holdings and for long term.
and I think dip is just a term used when a trader decides to accumulate an asset as it falls or falls. For example, when I buy bitcoin because its value is going down, I'm basically "buying down"

I am not a complete advocate of ONLY buying BTC on the dip, because I believe that dollar cost averaging (DCA) is a better BTC accumulation strategy overall rather than merely buying on the dip, and buying on the dip as well as lump sum investing can actually supplement any somewhat sound and already established DCA strategy.... In other words, I consider DCA to be the core BTC accumulation strategy and buying on dip and lump sum investing as supplemental strategies.

So for sure, there are some needs to figure out your budget and your cashflow... and how much cash you want to regularly invest into bitcoin, and if you should be saving any cash for buying on dips, in case that there are further dips.

You can also study your situation as you go along, and create target amounts of BTC that you would like to accumulate (of course accounting for its dollar value and where you expect it to go), so in that regard, it is good to know your other investments, figure out your view on bitcoin as compared with your other investments, your timeline, your risk tolerance and your skills, time and ability to plan, learn along the way and tweak your strategies from time to time, which might involve the use of more sophisticated practices.. though for sure, starting out by getting your basics in place tends to be a better way to get some grounding regarding figuring out if what you are doing is working for you both financially and psychologically.

So after you go through a lot of looking at your own circumstances, you should be in a better position to feel comfortable about whatever strategies you employ and whether you feel that it is working for you in terms of financial and psychological balance.

None of us also are going to know whether the BTC price might drop further, even though it could be helpful to already have a tentative plan and budget that allows you to continue to buy if the BTC price does fall without necessarily running out of money; however, since we don't really know for sure how much the price might drop at any time or how long it might stay down, ultimately we have to find a kind of balance that is comfortable for us.  The longer that you are in BTC, it becomes more likely that you are better able to figure out more comfortable ways to prepare yourself for various extremes that can happen in BTC's price movements, and I am not even proclaiming that it is ever really easy.. even though I have found that being in greater profits, there does tend to be somewhat less worry about large price drops because even with the price drops, after a while they no longer take you out of profits.. so there is a certain comfort with that, even though it could take 4 years or longer to build your BTC holdings (and your practices) to that level.

[Wind_FURY]

So, yeah, if we are using any model, and facts are changing in such a way that had not been anticipated by the model whether it is in the near-term or further out in the model's life then we either tweak the model as we go or throw it out and substitute with a better model(s) if such better model(s) then exist.

S2F predicted $135,000 by December 2021. How can you “tweak” a predictive model if it’s wrong by obviously a very large percentage? It can’t be taken seriously after the “tweak”.

This has been mentioned several times, and shows both your lack of interaction (just spouting out your own talking points over and over), and your not even understanding what the fuck you are talking about..

OK, then we should blindly follow, and believe PlanB’s Stock to Flow Model as a working Model, and accept that he can move the goal posts on a whim whenever there’s new circumstances/data that affects Bitcoin’s price. That’s a “Model” that will never be invalidated.

If you choose to NOT give the model any weight and to poo poo what it is saying, then you have a right to live in a fantasy, and it seems to me that you are ignoring a presentation of facts and logic that is right in front of you.  

The debate is not about me, it’s about the model.

Huh?  Since when have I given any shits about you?

Largely my criticisms of you have to do with how you are criticizing the model and spouting out baloney... so in that sense, I am talking about your ideas not you.

Haha remember when everyone was taking stock-to-flow models seriously? The early bitcoin community was so silly.

https://twitter.com/aaronvanw/status/1479462225895206912

It was not on “my idea”, I’m the stupid one.

That was tweeted by one of the most respected Bitcoiners in the community. Is he full of “baloney” too?

If you are repeating the dumb ideas of others, then you have to take responsibility for what you are saying.... Seems that my interaction is with you, and I am not interacting with Aaron Vanwirdum.. .. you are the one who has both been making the bold and dumb statements and then subsequently mischaracterizing even what is going on by suggesting that PlanB's assertions about the floor model is the same as his assertions about stock to flow and also presuming that anyone gives too many shits about specifically what PlanB is saying on an ongoing basis in order to understand some of the concepts underlying the stock to flow model.

Aaron Van Wirdum’s scarcasm aside, is questioning the validity of the model a dumb idea?

So your ongoing desires to keep talking about stock to flow is dead blah blah blah.. does not really seem to be progressing any kind of discussion in any kind of meaningful way... especially when you do not even seem to know what the fuck you are talking about so now you resort to saying "other smart people are saying it. blah blah blah."  So what.

“Is dead”? I was merely questioning if it was currently valid, and if yes, then what factors should we consider until it starts to be invalid?

Plus why is questioning the validity of the model be a person living in fantasy?

I have already explained.  the model is correlated to data..  Of course, you do not have to agree with it, and you can give it little weight, but totally ignoring it or acting like it has no value seems to be quite detached from reality..

In the end, we are talking about various ways of framing BTC price movements where we have been, where we are at and from that, where we might be going.

The model said $100,000 by December, it was off by how much?

Stock to flow model did not say that.  How many times does this need to be repeated?

Yes it did, https://stats.buybitcoinworldwide.com/stock-to-flow/

Yes.. I see a line at the $100k level.. that does not mean that the price has to be on the line at a specific date.

The line is near $100,000 ends during the first half of 2024, then next horizontal line is $1,000,000. If price regresses below the $100,000 line, and never surges to $1,000,000 during 2026, what now? Move goal posts because “reasons”, right?

I believe that would be an admission that the model has been invalidated in the face of new data.

Plan B was always tweeting “right on schedule” before the model started to break apart,

So fucking what in regards to what PlanB was saying about being on schedule, and the model is not broken.. in spite of all your fantasies and the various fantasies of other supposed "smart people."

and everybody started laughing at him. Currently he goes around saying that Bitcoin’s price is being suppressed, probably the message is “I’m not wrong, the market is wrong”. Hahaha.

You are easily distracted.  If there is a mean that is expected by the model there should be deviance from the mean on both sides of the mean.. .. so yeah, the longer that the price is below the mean, the more likely that the mean would need to be shifted or maybe there is something else wrong with the model.. too early to call like I said about 10,000 times..

Does a model being wrong by that much still should be considered a valid model? BUT Plan B is allowed to move the goal posts, then who is living in a fantasy?

You seem to be living in a fantasy.... and failing to even grapple with the topic that you are criticizing.  So in that regard, you are both living in a fantasy and even difficult to follow about what the fuck you are talking about.

Am I?

Seems to me.,. that you have some kind of difficulties to deal with matters for what they are rather than just exaggerating various topics and talking a lot of nonsense rather than really attempting to grapple with real concepts.. you cannot even stick to the topic of this thread.. sure I understand the future BTC price can affect how much any of us might consider there to actually be a dip or if more dip might be coming and also attempt to inform us about what we might do right now in terms of our own cash flow.. just buy blindly and regularly or attempt to time some buys or just give up and don't do anything.  If we are in BTC accumulation stage, it would be good to have some kind of a buying plan. whether that is on some kind of regular basis such as daily / Weekly or some kinds of price targets, as I am expecting that there may have been a lot of folks who already bought at several times in these lower $40ks since the first time we got to lower $40ks was December 3, and then we been revisiting lower $40ks in the past two weeks-ish.

Exaggerating? Your over-reaction is exaggerating. I simply wanted a discussion.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I simply wanted a discussion.

Yes... And, we more than sufficiently discussed - way beyond any relevance in regards to the topic of this thread.  

Seems that if you are so inclined to discuss StocktoFlow then either you make a topic on it or take it to one of the stock to flow threads.  

I think that fillippone has a pretty good thread on the topic, and it would be great to see you raising your "concerns" there.. whether it is death of the stock to flow model, or your other various questions about PlanB.. and even questioning why you might still have questions about matters that you cannot even figure out ways to separate stock to flow from the floor model and from PlanB's statements.. so sure.. maybe you could not even stay on point if you were to go to some already existing thread.. and you might need a thread for the ramblings of Wind_FURY... .. and sure, I have already seen that you likely are not inclined to raise your points in places where they would actually be relevant because you seem to have difficulties staying on topic.. not just in this thread.  

[JayJuanGee]

Who doesn't want to buy from Dip. This can reduce your risk. Moreover, if you buy from any asset from dip, it can easily increase your asset later. Bitcoin is in terrible moment today but it will be in good condition or regain the full force with in short of time. If your purchasing skills and circumstances are favorable then of course it is not right to miss that opportunity.

Yes.. one thing is talking about buying on the dip, and another thing is putting such matter into practice.. and we need details regarding that rather than mere overview theories.

Accordingly, you could have "favorable circumstances" and skills.. but you can still fuck things up if you are trying to be too precise with what you are doing in terms of timing the bottom.. and getting it wrong.

I have buy orders set down every $1k down to $20k.. but it is not like I really even want then to fill.. I would prefer that the price goes up....

Remember around December 3, we had a dip down to $41k-ish... so then there might have been some thought that the dip was over because we recovered to $52k by Christmas time.. but then resumed our gradual plodding DOWNity... so sure there has been buying from me in this second round starting at $44k-ish.. and then every thousand dollars down to $38k-ish, so far.. and my order did not fill in the $37ks, yet... and I would prefer that it does not.... so are those favorable skills and circumstances?

Some people have ongoing cashflow.. but should they buy at any price, or try to buy on the dip, and how do they know if they are buying on a sufficient dip or should be hanging onto some of their cash in case there is more dip?

[Wind_FURY]

[edited out]

I simply wanted a discussion.

Yes... And, we more than sufficiently discussed - way beyond any relevance in regards to the topic of this thread.  

What I truly learned from our discussion/debate is that, the Stock To Flow Model will always be “on target”, Plan B will just move the goal posts again, and adjust the “model”.

2024 will be the year, then $1,000,000 per Bitcoin during 2026, or it’s invalidated.

Who doesn't want to buy from Dip. This can reduce your risk. Moreover, if you buy from any asset from dip, it can easily increase your asset later. Bitcoin is in terrible moment today but it will be in good condition or regain the full force with in short of time. If your purchasing skills and circumstances are favorable then of course it is not right to miss that opportunity.

I have buy orders set down every $1k down to $20k.. but it is not like I really even want then to fill.. I would prefer that the price goes up....

Many of us are merely plebs. We don’t have as much capital as you, which is why it’s more practical for us to actually try to buy the DIP. I believe if plebs want to wait for the lowest point of the market, it will probably during 2023, IF we are indeed in a bear market.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I simply wanted a discussion.

Yes... And, we more than sufficiently discussed - way beyond any relevance in regards to the topic of this thread.  

What I truly learned from our discussion/debate is that, the Stock To Flow Model will always be “on target”, Plan B will just move the goal posts again, and adjust the “model”.

The model is already broadly framed, so even if PlanB was talking about specific price targets (floors) such as $98k in November and $135k in December, his discussion does not change the broad parameters in which the model is already framed.

2024 will be the year, then $1,000,000 per Bitcoin during 2026, or it’s invalidated.

Of course, you can do whatever you want Wind_FURY.. you seemingly disingenuine dweeb... and many of us are vary happy with our bitcoin investments, whether BTC over or underperforms models, such as the stock to flow model, and so times like these (when the BTC price is dropping quite deeply), there can be questions about what to do?  Do I buy on the dip, do I hold or do I sell?  And hopefully people are smart enough NOT to sell, but surely when the price is dropping, we know that there are more sellers than buyers, so in that regard the price would not be dropping without sellers... so some people believe that it is the right move to sell some or all of their coins.

In any event, there is nothing wrong with having a vision regarding where the bitcoin price might be in the next four year halvening cycle (which would be 2024 to 2028), but of course, we have to get through the rest of this four year period following the halvening first to see if the Stock to Flow model underperforms during this period, whether such underperforming (if it were to happen) needs to influence the model in terms of either tweaking or invalidating it...  If you are wedded to absolutes, then it seems as if you are referring to your own dumbass interpretation of the model (including maybe following some dweebs on twitter and saying that you believe that they are smart and therefore, you want to listen to what they are saying about the stock to flow model blah blah blah.. maybe just some fantasy ways of interpreting such model)...  

Who doesn't want to buy from Dip. This can reduce your risk. Moreover, if you buy from any asset from dip, it can easily increase your asset later. Bitcoin is in terrible moment today but it will be in good condition or regain the full force with in short of time. If your purchasing skills and circumstances are favorable then of course it is not right to miss that opportunity.

I have buy orders set down every $1k down to $20k.. but it is not like I really even want then to fill.. I would prefer that the price goes up....

Many of us are merely plebs. We don’t have as much capital as you, which is why it’s more practical for us to actually try to buy the DIP.

Don't be ridiculous.  We have talked about some of these concepts before.  You get so caught up in assumptions about supposed capital that some people might have versus other people, and of course, there are differences in terms of people who have been investing all of their lives and people who may well be in their earlier stages of investment.  I would hope that people with more investment experience have built up capital, but their success in building up capital should not disqualify them from being able to understand the better ways to build up capital and to comment on those kinds of strategies, even if they might not be currently employing those strategies because they are already beyond the earliest of wealth building strategies.

I know that I keep repeating that the best strategy is DCA with an amount that is reasonable for you.. whether it is $5 per week or $100 per week or some greater amount if you can afford it. ... however, you want to continue to assert that you are so smart.. and that you have sat on your hands in the past, and you still believe that waiting for a better price is a better strategy.. and I say fuck that nonsense..., Of course, you can play around with part of your budget in terms of waiting, but establish a reasonable DCA strategy with a reasonable amount of your budget, too... Yeah, of course, you can do what you like, but to be claiming that you know better about timing comes off as quite pretentious.. and if you really believe that you know that the BTC price will go down further.. which is a bunch of bullshit..

The last 8 years since I have been in BTC there have been all kinds of people who have proclaimed to have been smarter than BTC and asserting that it has been going down and blah blah blah.. and sure, they can frequently be right until they are not.. and in those cases when BTC decides to reverse and to go up.. you have had better have been prepared for UP.. don't get greedy.. maintain practical ongoing preparations for UP, and it does not have to be your whole budget.. like I keep saying until I am blue in the face..... but no of course, Wind_FURY.. you are smarter than DCA... and you believe that you can time the matter, even though such timing of the matter has not worked for you in the past.. but this time you have it all figured out, right?

 Furthermore, there can be some advantages in being in bitcoin longer in terms of having longer and longer to build up your orders (your buy orders and your sell orders and maybe even just being able to get ahead of the price in various ways to be able to play the BIGGER swings)... so if I am buying every time the BTC price drops $1,000 I am not saying how much I am buying, so it could be $5 each time, and that would be another $75 to get from our current price of $5k-ish down to $20k-ish ($5 each $1,000 drop adds up to 15 buy orders and $75)... Of course, the amounts that are bought each $1k drop could be larger amounts, so work with what you got in terms of strategizing the amounts of your DCAs, your increments and how far down you want to set such buy orders - whether they will ever fill or not and if you want to maintain them or not.

So even if you have complete discretion in establishing the strategies that you might want to employ in regards to regular buying of BTC and buying on dips, it's almost impossible to figure out the bottom of the dip, so I would suggest not wasting too much time on that strategy of trying to figure out the BTC bottom, unless it is merely supplementing some other DCA and more straight-forward and systematized buying on dip strategies that you might be employing.

By the way, as of this morning, I have had 6 BTC buy orders that have filled between $39k and $34k (so every $1k increment), and yesterday, I had realized that mostly I had set all of these buy orders in early September 2021 and the one at $39k-ish I had to reset in mid September 2021 because there was a dip that went down to fill the earlier $39k-ish buy order and so after the price went up above $46k in late September, that $39k-ish buy order was reset.... so much of my orders are already pre-set.. and I am not really in BTC accumulation stage anymore, I am in a kind of maintenance stage... but of course, if the BTC price drops more than 50% from $69k in November down to $34k so far... then for sure I end up accumulating more BTC.. .but it is not like I accumulate 50% more BTC.. I accumulate maybe 1% or 2% more at best in such a streak.. and if the BTC price goes back up to $69k, maybe I end up only having 0.5% more BTC than I had the first time around... perhaps? perhaps?  it is not guaranteed where I am going to end up, even though I have a system that I have been following since about 2015 with some tweaks.. and I consider what I do to be maintenance and really modest in terms of attempts at capital preservation and ways of attempting to somewhat insure my BTC holdings.

Guys should be attempting to tailor to their approach to BTC to their situation... so they have to figure out how much they are still in the early stages of BTC accumulation or have they transitioned more into a kind of maintenance stage of their BTC portfolio management... for sure, there is a lot of attempts to target the discussion at guys who are likely in various accumulation stages.. because many of us have to go through such a stage..and can sometimes question whether we have quite graduated out of such stage.. especially when the BTC prices end up dropping so much (which great levels of volatility is a kind of inevitability in BTClandia, anyhow)..

Seems that we can attempt to build our BTC approach to structure what we do, and not get so tied up into figuring out how much of a dip there is going to be, even though it is hard not to watch it in various ways, especially when extremes seem to be happening.

I know Wind_FURY that you had been proclaiming that you had fucked up a few times in the beginning in NOT beginning to DCA into BTC when you first got into the forum in mid-2016, so at what point did you stop screwing up might merely be something that you can consider in terms of your own situation and maybe how much BTC to continue to accumulate.. presuming that you have not gotten out of BTC accumulation stage yet.

No one is saying that any of these matters are easy in terms of if you have various expenses, and you are trying to figure out how much extra cash that you have on a regular basis and how much to use for buying BTC right away versus waiting for a further dip, in the event such a sip happens.  Part of the reason that I described a structuring down of outstanding buy orders every $1k down to $20k, is not to proclaim how rich I am, because you surely do not need to be rich at all in order to employ such a strategy, but the level of your cash flow is going to help you to determine how much you might want each of your buy orders to be, if you are comfortable to place some kind of buy order down every $1k down to $20k.  

Also, don't get me wrong.  I have no desire for the BTC price to go down, and I could give less than two shits about buying more BTC below $42k, but what choice did I have?  In recent years, I have found it psychologically helpful to me to maintain buy orders down to the 208-week moving average (which is currently at about $19.2k and it moved up 132% in the last year.. which is amazing in itself), but my maintenance of buy orders down to the 208-week moving average does not mean that I want those buy orders to fill.

I believe if plebs want to wait for the lowest point of the market, it will probably during 2023, IF we are indeed in a bear market.

Hopefully people are not so dumb as to be waiting to buy BTC based on some nonsense about some supposed lower price point.. and yeah of course you are presuming a bear market.. and that may be a wee bit premature of a presumption.. but hey.. whatever you do you.  

You seem to have fucked up before by not regularly buying in 2016 and thereafter, and you seem inclined to just repeat pretty much the same mistakes of your past, and you do this on an ongoing basis with your ongoing desires to wait rather than to figure out some reasonable ongoing buy amount.. and sure it does not have to be your whole budget.. you can save some for dips, in case they happen..  sure maybe you will make some of your historical mistakes less worse, but I doubt it.. especially since in bitcoin the best strategy has been DCA'ing because we cannot really know.. even though you want to presume a bear market.. and seems that you have done that several times before and failed to adequately and sufficiently buy BTC during those times that you thought that BTC might be in or going into a bear market.. In any event, does not seem to be a good strategy to be waiting around instead of just buying regularly with a meaningful amount (even if it is only part of your available BTC budget).

In other words, like I said, the best strategy is to figure out a reasonable DCA amount and to do that every week.. $100 per week is a good target.  Another thing is that once you establish a reasonable DCA strategy, then of course, you can hold some additional amounts for buying on dips... and of course, how you divide those amounts are within your discretion to figure out what you believe might be better for you and your situation in terms of both psychology and finances.. and of course, I have been an advocate of time in the market rather than trying to time the market.. especially when it comes to BTC.  

Of course, we have not guarantees where BTC price might be going, even if we can look back and see where the price had been, but just in the case of someone like yourself, there are ways that a $100 per week strategy, and maybe even some lump sum investing along the way, would put you well over 15 BTC by this time and merely investing around $31k during that time. For sure, buying in 2016 and early 2017 would have gotten you the most bang for the buck in terms of front loading possibilities, but even if you had just DCA'ed at 100 per week, you could have pretty easily gotten yourself into supra 15 BTC territories by now, and that kind of an amount is nothing to sneeze at... even if the investment would have been somewhat modestly aggressive.... so of course, if we cut down the amount by 10 and say that you did not have enough money to be able to invest $100 per week, then the amount of the profits would be cut by 10 also.. so instead of being in the supra 15BTC territory, you would be in the 1.5BTC territory.. with an investment of $10 per week instead of $100 per week.

[Wind_FURY]

[edited out]

I simply wanted a discussion.

Yes... And, we more than sufficiently discussed - way beyond any relevance in regards to the topic of this thread.  

What I truly learned from our discussion/debate is that, the Stock To Flow Model will always be “on target”, Plan B will just move the goal posts again, and adjust the “model”.

The model is already broadly framed, so even if PlanB was talking about specific price targets (floors) such as $98k in November and $135k in December, his discussion does not change the broad parameters in which the model is already framed.

2024 will be the year, then $1,000,000 per Bitcoin during 2026, or it’s invalidated.

Of course, you can do whatever you want Wind_FURY.. you seemingly disingenuine dweeb...

Disingenuine? Who? Didn’t you say Plan B can “tweak” the model, move the goal posts, if there’s new data that changes the market’s conditions, now you’re saying it’s “broadly framed”? How convenient.

Didn’t you also ridicule me at the mere suggestion that a 30% price reduction of Bitcoin when it was trading over $60,000? What are you claiming now, that it isn’t ridiculous after all?

Plus because of you’re name-calling, you’re starting to remind me of my forum-bestie franky1. He was also one of those people I thought all plebs like me should be learning from.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I simply wanted a discussion.

Yes... And, we more than sufficiently discussed - way beyond any relevance in regards to the topic of this thread.  

What I truly learned from our discussion/debate is that, the Stock To Flow Model will always be “on target”, Plan B will just move the goal posts again, and adjust the “model”.

The model is already broadly framed, so even if PlanB was talking about specific price targets (floors) such as $98k in November and $135k in December, his discussion does not change the broad parameters in which the model is already framed.

2024 will be the year, then $1,000,000 per Bitcoin during 2026, or it’s invalidated.

Of course, you can do whatever you want Wind_FURY.. you seemingly disingenuine dweeb...

Disingenuine? Who? Didn’t you say Plan B can “tweak” the model, move the goal posts, if there’s new data that changes the market’s conditions, now you’re saying it’s “broadly framed”? How convenient.

Yes... maybe you are starting to get it.

Broadly framed.. good to use as a reference.

Didn’t you also ridicule me at the mere suggestion that a 30% price reduction of Bitcoin when it was trading over $60,000?

Perhaps...  I don't recall that specific issue... but it could have been that I felt some need to attempt to ridicule you.. but there might be some need for a context, to the extent that it might be relevant to anything at this moment besides your hurt feelings...

What are you claiming now, that it isn’t ridiculous after all?

Your negating a currently valid model is ridiculous.. and your making up your own wild claims seems a bit ridiculous, too.

Did we have a specific claim that we currently wanted to explore?  Or you just want to whine about hypotheticals?

Plus because of you’re name-calling, you’re starting to remind me of my forum-bestie franky1. He was also one of those people I thought all plebs like me should be learning from.

You are misguided if you are making those kinds of comparisons.. but do what you like.

Do you have anything topical, or you just want to cry over spilt milk or some past issues/grievances that you might have about some vague issues that are only quasi-relevant?

[Wind_FURY]

[edited out]

I simply wanted a discussion.

Yes... And, we more than sufficiently discussed - way beyond any relevance in regards to the topic of this thread.  

What I truly learned from our discussion/debate is that, the Stock To Flow Model will always be “on target”, Plan B will just move the goal posts again, and adjust the “model”.

The model is already broadly framed, so even if PlanB was talking about specific price targets (floors) such as $98k in November and $135k in December, his discussion does not change the broad parameters in which the model is already framed.

2024 will be the year, then $1,000,000 per Bitcoin during 2026, or it’s invalidated.

Of course, you can do whatever you want Wind_FURY.. you seemingly disingenuine dweeb...

Disingenuine? Who? Didn’t you say Plan B can “tweak” the model, move the goal posts, if there’s new data that changes the market’s conditions, now you’re saying it’s “broadly framed”? How convenient.

Yes... maybe you are starting to get it.

Broadly framed.. good to use as a reference.

Gaslight? “Tweaking” and “broadly framed” are two different things. To “tweak” is to change/move the goal posts, “broadly framed” is fixed.

Didn’t you also ridicule me at the mere suggestion that a 30% price reduction of Bitcoin when it was trading over $60,000?

Perhaps...  I don't recall that specific issue... but it could have been that I felt some need to attempt to ridicule you.. but there might be some need for a context, to the extent that it might be relevant to anything at this moment besides your hurt feelings...

“You felt” a mere suggestion of a 30% reduction from above $60,000, based on Bitcoin’s volatility was to be ridiculed because you could not believe Bitcoin would crash below $50,000.

Plus hurt my feelings? Hahaha. Neither you, nor franky1 can do that.

What are you claiming now, that it isn’t ridiculous after all?

Your negating a currently valid model is ridiculous.. and your making up your own wild claims seems a bit ridiculous, too.

Did we have a specific claim that we currently wanted to explore?  Or you just want to whine about hypotheticals?

Merely questioning the validity, ser.

Plus because of you’re name-calling, you’re starting to remind me of my forum-bestie franky1. He was also one of those people I thought all plebs like me should be learning from.

You are misguided if you are making those kinds of comparisons.. but do what you like.

Do you have anything topical, or you just want to cry over spilt milk or some past issues/grievances that you might have about some vague issues that are only quasi-relevant?

It’s your name-calling reminded me of franky1. I thought you had a little more respect in you.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I simply wanted a discussion.

Yes... And, we more than sufficiently discussed - way beyond any relevance in regards to the topic of this thread.  

What I truly learned from our discussion/debate is that, the Stock To Flow Model will always be “on target”, Plan B will just move the goal posts again, and adjust the “model”.

The model is already broadly framed, so even if PlanB was talking about specific price targets (floors) such as $98k in November and $135k in December, his discussion does not change the broad parameters in which the model is already framed.

2024 will be the year, then $1,000,000 per Bitcoin during 2026, or it’s invalidated.

Of course, you can do whatever you want Wind_FURY.. you seemingly disingenuine dweeb...

Disingenuine? Who? Didn’t you say Plan B can “tweak” the model, move the goal posts, if there’s new data that changes the market’s conditions, now you’re saying it’s “broadly framed”? How convenient.

Yes... maybe you are starting to get it.

Broadly framed.. good to use as a reference.

Gaslight? “Tweaking” and “broadly framed” are two different things. To “tweak” is to change/move the goal posts, “broadly framed” is fixed.

Does not really matter that much to the extent that we have both beaten this topic to death and that there is only so much that the specifics of the topic of stock to flow (and the extent that any of us use it as a guide) is part of our rationale for BTC price dynamics - including whether to buy on dips. or if there might be an UP portion coming in the near-term.

You can use whatever theories/models you want in terms of deciding how you are going to strategize your ongoing bitcoin accumulation or if you are going to stop because you want to wait for down that might not happen.

Didn’t you also ridicule me at the mere suggestion that a 30% price reduction of Bitcoin when it was trading over $60,000?

Perhaps...  I don't recall that specific issue... but it could have been that I felt some need to attempt to ridicule you.. but there might be some need for a context, to the extent that it might be relevant to anything at this moment besides your hurt feelings...

“You felt” a mere suggestion of a 30% reduction from above $60,000, based on Bitcoin’s volatility was to be ridiculed because you could not believe Bitcoin would crash below $50,000.

You are just making shit up... what else is new?  You are the one who actually had egg on your face in about March 2021 when you proclaimed that BTC would never go below $50k again, so at least you had recanted that.. and recognized that you had overly proclaimed.  I don't make those kinds of proclamations, even if you want to read certainty into my assertions, I don't do that..   You should know that by now,  you disingenuine dweeb..

And, sure there are always going to be some statements that are made that are strong in one direction or another, and especially dealing with a dweeb like you in which you are ongoingly goading peeps with some of your nonsense proclamations or just repeating something that someone else said and then not taking responsibility for your reposting that same idea. or waffling all over the place.. which seems to be your shit-stirring inclinations.

When push comes to shove, and when I am assigning various probabilities to various price directions, you are not going to be strong statements out of me, even if I might call you a disingenuine waffling dweeb from time to time, and you cannot hold that against me for making a true statement.  In any event, you are not going to be seeing me making very strong assertions regarding the price will never go.. blah blah blah.. even though I might make strong assertions regarding what direction is more likely, but even a strong assertion from me might only have something like a 60% probability, depending on how the subject matter is framed.  Even my December 16 rendition of probabilities shows around a 45% assignment for down rather than UP. - that is if we are using $62k as the threshold price (but I might have to change some of those numbers based on some of BTC's recent price movements). so.. it is NOT like I ever take strong stances on any price direction..

By the way, changes in BTC's price performance causes changes in what probability assignements should be assigned to certain directions, so nobody should be expecting that anyone is locked into some kind of statements regarding probability assignments that were made a few months ago if some of the dynamics have changed.. .. so the extent to which new facts or logic changes the probability assignments is surely going to have some subjective components in respect to how each of us might come to differing conclusions in respect to how much information we know, how well we understand various indicators, how much weight we assign to various indicators, and sure maybe even some unknown aspects, too.

Plus hurt my feelings? Hahaha. Neither you, nor franky1 can do that.

 Again shows your poor thinking skills when you when you continue to make such comparisons... but hey.. do what you want.. reflects more upon you than any kind of fact that you are making a meaningful statement/comparison... maybe just shows that you get hurt by a variety of peeps and you want to express how you feel like a victim..

What are you claiming now, that it isn’t ridiculous after all?

Your negating a currently valid model is ridiculous.. and your making up your own wild claims seems a bit ridiculous, too.

Did we have a specific claim that we currently wanted to explore?  Or you just want to whine about hypotheticals?

Merely questioning the validity, ser.

 Yes.. we beat this to death, sir... and for some reason, even though you want to discuss such stock to flow model, you make no postings in the thread in which it would be more appropriate to do so and perhaps get a more targeted audience.  Instead, you probably feel that you can get away with your vague nonsense because largely it appears that you are coming at the whole matter from a lack of informed direction... and you really don't seem to want to try to understand the model that you are criticizing.  Feels better that way, right?  Even though it makes you look more like a dweeb than some of your historical showings of your dweebness on other topics.  

Plus because of you’re name-calling, you’re starting to remind me of my forum-bestie franky1. He was also one of those people I thought all plebs like me should be learning from.

You are misguided if you are making those kinds of comparisons.. but do what you like.

Do you have anything topical, or you just want to cry over spilt milk or some past issues/grievances that you might have about some vague issues that are only quasi-relevant?

It’s your name-calling reminded me of franky1. I thought you had a little more respect in you.

Sometimes some name calling might help to make the point.. so usually it would not come out of the gate unless the person is showing a pattern of disingenuineness quite early on.  If you start to raise some thread-related substantive points, then maybe we can get back to discussing substance?  That would be nice, to the extent that you might actually be interested in actually talking about the subject of this thread... our dip in the past 4 hours brought prices down to $32,951, but there was a wick up to $38,050 (talking Bitstamp here) that preceded such down price movement by about 2 hours..

Interesting place we continue to be.. kind of hovering in the $34ks currently... and pretty decent ongoing volume to see if we can stay down here or what's going to happen in the current battle?  more dip buying opportunities or not?  Might we resume up, or not?


Edited:

Didn’t you also ridicule me at the mere suggestion that a 30% price reduction of Bitcoin when it was trading over $60,000?

By the way.. I had to go back to add to this one.. one more time...

Guys deserve to be ridiculed when the fail/refuse to sufficiently/adequately prepare for up, and they also talk others out of sufficiently/adequately preparing for UP.. because they presume that they know which way the BTC price is going to go in the short term... so whether BTC prices are at $60k, $40k, $35k or maybe even $20k, each of us needs to make sure that we are sufficiently and adequately prepared for UP.. because in bitcoinlandia, you can never completely know when UP might happen and to punish you for your failure/refusal to sufficiently/adequately prepare.  Seen it several times.. and don't really know that it has happened until after it has already happened.. and the mere fact that the BTC price has moved down recently does not justify that anyone who is longer term in bitcoin should have been sufficiently/adequately prepared for UP or more UP, even when we were in the $60ks in October and November.. just a short while back.

You ONLY have yourself to blame if you are insufficiently and/or inadequately prepared for UP when it happens (and we cannot know when that will be with any level of confidence).

[Wind_FURY]

You are just making shit up... what else is new?  

No, ser. I never make things up, ser. Let me quote you, ser.

Oh my!!!  Holy shit!!!

Do you even believe that a 30% dip (that would be down to around $46k.. which surely would not be the end of the world, for sure) is within reasonable expectations?  I appreciate that you, Wind_FURY, seem to be just throwing that out there as an extreme.. so probably you are not really considering a 30% drop to be too likely.. but it is within the realm of extreme possibilities.. .. in any event.. even the proposition of a 30% drop got my hackles up..

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg58252622#msg58252622

You are the one who actually had egg on your face in about March 2021 when you proclaimed that BTC would never go below $50k again, so at least you had recanted that.. and recognized that you had overly proclaimed.  I don't make those kinds of proclamations, even if you want to read certainty into my assertions, I don't do that..   You should know that by now,  you disingenuine dweeb..

I’m the stupid one in the forum, and I have always admitted to that, but even the stupid ones would know a charlatan when they see one.

Those charlatans who use layers of complexity in their language usually hide their incompetence through them, and when their ideas are questioned, they start flip-flopping and gaslight people. But we are off-topic, welcome to my ignore list, ser.

[JayJuanGee]

You are just making shit up... what else is new?  

No, ser. I never make things up, ser. Let me quote you, ser.

Oh my!!!  Holy shit!!!

Do you even believe that a 30% dip (that would be down to around $46k.. which surely would not be the end of the world, for sure) is within reasonable expectations?  I appreciate that you, Wind_FURY, seem to be just throwing that out there as an extreme.. so probably you are not really considering a 30% drop to be too likely.. but it is within the realm of extreme possibilities.. .. in any event.. even the proposition of a 30% drop got my hackles up..

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg58252622#msg58252622

You are the one who actually had egg on your face in about March 2021 when you proclaimed that BTC would never go below $50k again, so at least you had recanted that.. and recognized that you had overly proclaimed.  I don't make those kinds of proclamations, even if you want to read certainty into my assertions, I don't do that..   You should know that by now,  you disingenuine dweeb..

I’m the stupid one in the forum, and I have always admitted to that, but even the stupid ones would know a charlatan when they see one.

Yes....   you are largely just repeating your dumb... over and over and over.. and trying to play gotcha when there is no gotcha there.

I have already addressed this.., including the need to put things into context.

Some calls are more reasonable than others, and none of us know the future.. including that BTC frequently performs outrageously to the upside and to the downside so hopefully on a personal level each of us are prepared for both.

Most likely you are not, and that is partly a result of your playing around and attempting to make BIG calls, when like I already mentioned many times, you would likely be way better off with dollar cost averaging.... and then just having orders set in case the price went down.  I have had orders down to $20k since October and before that, so surely I don't want the price to go down or expect it to go down, but I am prepared for such both psychologically and financially.  so hopefully you can learn and practice some good techniques rather than just screwing around with ongoing gotcha attempts... including now.. what are you doing?  are you buying or sitting on your hands?   maybe you should snap your lil selfie a wee bit better into the present , no?

Those charlatans who use layers of complexity in their language usually hide their incompetence through them, and when their ideas are questioned, they start flip-flopping and gaslight people. But we are off-topic, welcome to my ignore list, ser.

Oh.. finally you recognize that there is a topic.  Great.

[goku19]

One thing we always forget is that when you dump a coin on an exchange, it is not the exchange that pick up that coin but a normal crypto enthusiast like you who love crypto and also have hope in the future of the market, I don't know the reason why we keep dumping our coin in fear when we know that the market will always recover and we can't lose all what we have gained, I think we should keep buying the dip.

[Wind_FURY]

Are you selling your Bitcoins, sers? But what if I tell you that Putin is the buyer of your Bitcoins? Don’t sell them your precious coins! If they truly want it,wait for six digits, AND MAYBE they can have it. Buy the DIP, and HODL. Keep front-running them.

[DU18]

Are you selling your Bitcoins, sers? But what if I tell you that Putin is the buyer of your Bitcoins? Don’t sell them your precious coins! If they truly want it,wait for six digits, AND MAYBE they can have it. Buy the DIP, and HODL. Keep front-running them.

The current decline in the price of bitcoin certainly triggers panic for traders and makes them sell at a cheap price, so for those who believe in strong bitcoin fundamentals, they will certainly take advantage of their panic to buy at a low price in the market, I personally see if this is actually the case is the right time to increase our bitcoin holdings and hold it for a long time so that it will really benefit us later.

[ReiMomo]

Are you selling your Bitcoins, sers? But what if I tell you that Putin is the buyer of your Bitcoins? Don’t sell them your precious coins! If they truly want it,wait for six digits, AND MAYBE they can have it. Buy the DIP, and HODL. Keep front-running them.

The current decline in the price of bitcoin certainly triggers panic for traders and makes them sell at a cheap price, so for those who believe in strong bitcoin fundamentals, they will certainly take advantage of their panic to buy at a low price in the market, I personally see if this is actually the case is the right time to increase our bitcoin holdings and hold it for a long time so that it will really benefit us later.

Never get into panic sales or buys. Yes buy at dip and hold. Just have more patience and enjoy your own huge profits. But we find it hard to have patience. Not sure why. But yes it takes time to be so. Many learn it after loosing a lot. Just pile up as much as you can from your monthly income if possible as like saving small amounts in banks. This will help to increase the capital holdings and profits in future as well.

[Wind_FURY]

Are you selling your Bitcoins, sers? But what if I tell you that Putin is the buyer of your Bitcoins? Don’t sell them your precious coins! If they truly want it,wait for six digits, AND MAYBE they can have it. Buy the DIP, and HODL. Keep front-running them.

The current decline in the price of bitcoin certainly triggers panic for traders and makes them sell at a cheap price, so for those who believe in strong bitcoin fundamentals, they will certainly take advantage of their panic to buy at a low price in the market, I personally see if this is actually the case is the right time to increase our bitcoin holdings and hold it for a long time so that it will really benefit us later.

Plus market crashes, especially Bitcoin market crashes, are truly opportunities to buy Bitcoin with a discount. It’s the main reason why I don’t prefer to Bitcoin blindly at any price like DCA recommends. It’s a winning strategy if you count your investment in U.S. Dollars, but 1BTC = 1BTC and we should get more BTC with every purchase through buying DIPs.

[Jating]

Are you selling your Bitcoins, sers? But what if I tell you that Putin is the buyer of your Bitcoins? Don’t sell them your precious coins! If they truly want it,wait for six digits, AND MAYBE they can have it. Buy the DIP, and HODL. Keep front-running them.

The current decline in the price of bitcoin certainly triggers panic for traders and makes them sell at a cheap price, so for those who believe in strong bitcoin fundamentals, they will certainly take advantage of their panic to buy at a low price in the market, I personally see if this is actually the case is the right time to increase our bitcoin holdings and hold it for a long time so that it will really benefit us later.

Plus market crashes, especially Bitcoin market crashes, are truly opportunities to buy Bitcoin with a discount. It’s the main reason why I don’t prefer to Bitcoin blindly at any price like DCA recommends. It’s a winning strategy if you count your investment in U.S. Dollars, but 1BTC = 1BTC and we should get more BTC with every purchase through buying DIPs.

Definitely, nothing can go wrong with this little but no secret formula in crypto market, but the dip and enjoy the ride. I mean no matter what, specially in crypto winter? this formula is still applicable, and it's one way to survived in this bearish cycle. So this dip is a "window of opportunity", the only caveat is that you need to have capital and mental toughness. But if you go over and won the psychological battle, for sure you will be rewarded in the future.

[LogitechMouse]

Are you selling your Bitcoins, sers? But what if I tell you that Putin is the buyer of your Bitcoins? Don’t sell them your precious coins! If they truly want it,wait for six digits, AND MAYBE they can have it. Buy the DIP, and HODL. Keep front-running them.

Nahh I'm doing the opposite.

Selling?? What is the reason I will sell? I don't have any concrete reason to sell my Bitcoins right now but I have so many reasons to buy it. Dumps like this are opportunity for me and to those intelligent investors out there. TBH, I don't see the reason as well why investors are getting feared in this times. They see this as a problem but we see this as an opportunity to accumulate more Bitcoins. Lets fcking buy and hold and don't let Putin hold our coins. Let them buy at 6 digits.

[goku19]

Buying the dip is always the best choice, I agree. I think that people who buy the dip only are the ones who make the most profit compared to the other type of investors. But they make that much profit in a long term of course. HODLers can lose and make lots of money on this road. But in the end, they will reach their goal as long as they are patient and don't panic-sell in this period.