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Author Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL!  (Read 77038 times)
Wind_FURY (OP)
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December 02, 2021, 08:21:01 AM
 #1221

One of the simple things is that if someone buys crypto from the dip and hold it , he must be able to make a good profit, otherwise if he cannot buy from the dip, the percentage will be reduced. Especially if the newcomers are doing this job i.e. bypassing the dip and then selling it then they will definitely be able to make good profit.

We are not talking about buying crypto here.. that would be dumb.

We are talking about buying bitcoin.

We are also not talking about selling...

So if you have some long term imagination or even enough a timeline that is 4-10 years into the future, ongoing buying is good and buying on dips is good to supplement your long term plans to accumulate BTC.. and maybe after 4- 10 years, you might reconsider if you still want to continue to buy or just hold or maybe consider if you might want to sell some.. later down the road.. not fucking around with short-term profits.. but hoping for longer term accumulation of a large enough BTC stash in order to feel like it was a good investment...

Because we are not merely “investing”, and if you ask me, HODLing Bitcoin is something every individual should do “just in case” you need to utilize Bitcoin’s main value proposition. Censorship-resistance. It is something you think you might not need, until you are forced in a situation that you might need it. Cool

Well like you mentioned, you can call what you are doing what you would like to call it.  You can also establish whatever timeline that you would like, which would also influence your thinking about the matter and your approach  If you are into bitcoin for possible value appreciation or you believe that bitcoin gives you choices/options that you might not otherwise have, then those are your own choices regarding framing of the matter, too.


If you ask me, it’s both. Value appreciation is a feature. Censorship-resistance is a feature. You always have both if you’re HODLing.

Quote

Of course getting into bitcoin does seem to provide a lot more options, and with the passage of time, part of the seeming value proposition of bitcoin continues to be that its likelihood of down or going to zero becomes less and less the longer that it is in existence - but as an individual, even if you create a 1, 2, 4, 10 year or longer timeline for yourself to be into bitcoin, you have the power to override your earlier decision, change your mind abandon the investment or whatever you would like to do.  

So, yes surely one of the reasons to be into bitcoin would be seeming to have more options, and of course, the better that you play your investment into bitcoin, the seeming likelihood that your options will expand even more.. so part of the reason that I had emphasized the longer term way of attempting to consider the matter - even though surely people are free to just consider bitcoin in some kind of a shorter-term time frame - but seems to me that even the premise of the title of this thread (even though you might not have even been clear about some of the underlying implications upon the creation of the thread) is that it considers bitcoin in a kind of  longer time frame.. that is why you at least used the term "HODL" within the title.



I already explained that the “underlying implications” of creating this thread is clear. The original title was, “Buy every dip!”, then look at the date it was started. It was the best opportunity given to us to buy EVERY DIP with everything we can WITHOUT FEAR.

Quote

At some point weren't you even considering changing the title of the thread to something more specific and weird that would try to particularize what you individually think about when and how to buy on dips and maybe not always to buy on dips or some other nonsense like that - because 1) you seemed to be trying to get away from my ongoing refrain about the preferability of DCA in terms of when it doubt buy rather then getting caught up about how much of a dip and if the dip is maximized and all those kinds of difficult to actually carry out in practices, and 2) you were worried that sometimes buying on dips could cause the running out of money if buying too soon - especially if we were to prematurely go into a bear market?

Furthermore, you were also going through a kind of adamant and stubborn phase of NOT wanting to tell newbies to buy BTC or to even go so far as to tell them not to buy (was that occurring for most of 2021, and maybe even ramped up in the May/June/July time... and I am not even saying that you had not been doing that at various times in 2020 too), which I also spent a lot of time battling those kinds of emphasis on HODL and wait ideas, including my considerations that it was advise that was probably more hurtful rather than helpful... and our subsequent BTC price performance has largely been showing that ongoing buying of BTC probably remains as the best of strategies, even if psychologically it can feel better to have some supplemental strategies to attempt to buy on dips, too... and then just HODL when running out of money.. which also can sometimes happen.. and even no matter how long any of us are into BTC, it is ongoingly difficult to know exactly what mistakes people are going to make or even the reality of the difficulties to both determine the extent of any dip or how long such dips are going to last... even if there are a variety of structural ways that people (even newbies) can attempt to plan in advance so that they are not too likely to run out of money for buying, even if the BTC price dips lower than expected and longer than expected.


July 8, 2021, I said,

Watch John Bogle’s advice in how to invest in stocks and equities, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=doKsy4itiRE

John Bogle was a HODLer-type, and was the founder of The Vanguard Group.

It’s obviously very applicable in Bitcoin’s HODL-style investing, and he also addressed and encourged a dollar-cost-averaging strategy. BUT, he also said that an investor should “get in right in the first place”. Is the current market the right time to enter? I believe it’s an opportunity, but leave yourself more capital to average down because no one gets it in right unless you’re very lucky.


You can DCA your way, because maybe you’re rich, with unlimited capital. A pleb like me has limited capital. I can’t waste it by buying stupidly at any price.

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December 02, 2021, 05:02:43 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (3)
 #1222

Watch John Bogle’s advice in how to invest in stocks and equities, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=doKsy4itiRE

John Bogle was a HODLer-type, and was the founder of The Vanguard Group.

It’s obviously very applicable in Bitcoin’s HODL-style investing, and he also addressed and encourged a dollar-cost-averaging strategy. BUT, he also said that an investor should “get in right in the first place”. Is the current market the right time to enter? I believe it’s an opportunity, but leave yourself more capital to average down because no one gets it in right unless you’re very lucky.


You can DCA your way, because maybe you’re rich, with unlimited capital. A pleb like me has limited capital. I can’t waste it by buying stupidly at any price.
[/quote]

The issue is that it is often only possible to tell whether you bought stupidly or smartly in hindsight. Bitcoin surprised investors again and again, me included. Yet I did buy the dips a lot, but as you said you need to be relatively rich or have reasonable income streams to also be able and buy the dips or to not get too stressed out when you thought you were buying a dip but you didn't. Those who had a lot of money before Bitcoin went for the first big rallies also made the most money. It is easer to justify holding when you have 10 million in the bank and your Bitcoins are now worth 30 million and you still don't sell compared to having 10k in the bank and the Bitcoins you are holding are now worth 30k. From a certain point onwards, and of course depending on your lifestyle, it is much easier emotionally to drive the Bitcoin rollercoaster.

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December 02, 2021, 06:40:56 PM
Merited by Coin-1 (1), temple (1)
 #1223

One of the simple things is that if someone buys crypto from the dip and hold it , he must be able to make a good profit, otherwise if he cannot buy from the dip, the percentage will be reduced. Especially if the newcomers are doing this job i.e. bypassing the dip and then selling it then they will definitely be able to make good profit.

We are not talking about buying crypto here.. that would be dumb.

We are talking about buying bitcoin.

We are also not talking about selling...

So if you have some long term imagination or even enough a timeline that is 4-10 years into the future, ongoing buying is good and buying on dips is good to supplement your long term plans to accumulate BTC.. and maybe after 4- 10 years, you might reconsider if you still want to continue to buy or just hold or maybe consider if you might want to sell some.. later down the road.. not fucking around with short-term profits.. but hoping for longer term accumulation of a large enough BTC stash in order to feel like it was a good investment...

Because we are not merely “investing”, and if you ask me, HODLing Bitcoin is something every individual should do “just in case” you need to utilize Bitcoin’s main value proposition. Censorship-resistance. It is something you think you might not need, until you are forced in a situation that you might need it. Cool

Well like you mentioned, you can call what you are doing what you would like to call it.  You can also establish whatever timeline that you would like, which would also influence your thinking about the matter and your approach  If you are into bitcoin for possible value appreciation or you believe that bitcoin gives you choices/options that you might not otherwise have, then those are your own choices regarding framing of the matter, too.

If you ask me, it’s both. Value appreciation is a feature. Censorship-resistance is a feature. You always have both if you’re HODLing.

I thought that our initial seemingly semantical quibble was about whether putting value into bitcoin would be considered as "investing," and since you seemed to be battling with the use of such a label upon what you believe that you are doing, I ended up ranting on the idea of what is investing versus what else you might be doing if you considered your approach to bitcoin to NOT be "investing."

I cannot disagree with the suggestion that both value appreciation and censorship resistance are ongoing bitcoin features and each of them (as well as both) can contributed towards motivations to "invest" into bitcoin or to continue to hold some portion of your overall investment portfolio in bitcoin.

Of course getting into bitcoin does seem to provide a lot more options, and with the passage of time, part of the seeming value proposition of bitcoin continues to be that its likelihood of down or going to zero becomes less and less the longer that it is in existence - but as an individual, even if you create a 1, 2, 4, 10 year or longer timeline for yourself to be into bitcoin, you have the power to override your earlier decision, change your mind abandon the investment or whatever you would like to do.  

So, yes surely one of the reasons to be into bitcoin would be seeming to have more options, and of course, the better that you play your investment into bitcoin, the seeming likelihood that your options will expand even more.. so part of the reason that I had emphasized the longer term way of attempting to consider the matter - even though surely people are free to just consider bitcoin in some kind of a shorter-term time frame - but seems to me that even the premise of the title of this thread (even though you might not have even been clear about some of the underlying implications upon the creation of the thread) is that it considers bitcoin in a kind of  longer time frame.. that is why you at least used the term "HODL" within the title.


I already explained that the “underlying implications” of creating this thread is clear. The original title was, “Buy every dip!”, then look at the date it was started. It was the best opportunity given to us to buy EVERY DIP with everything we can WITHOUT FEAR.

oh gawd...  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Wrong.

You trying to act like some kind of a soothsayer.

Of course, in retrospect we can see that BTC prices had gone down in November/December 2018 from about $6k to almost $3k, and then largely got stuck in the $3,500-ish to $4,200-ish arena until late March 2019.

So yes on about April 1, 2019 BTC prices broke above $4,200 and largely entered into a 3 month UPpity journey to reach $13,800 by the end of July without any significant price correction during that time.

Surely, there was some kind of trepidation during late 2018 and early 2019 regarding whether the $3,124 bottom of December 17, 2018 was in.. so no one really knew that bitcoin was going to rip UPpity.. or to have further corrections, and surely there were quite a few people still anticipating or predicting  that the $3,124 bottom was not in and that supposedly bitcoin needed to test sub $2k prices and even sub $1,500 prices (which would have largely been revisiting the price arena of our 2013 top).

Retrospectively you can suggest that you had some level of confidence regarding what to do but largely you are talking nonsense to the extent that a buying the dip strategy was any more advantageous or knowable at that time as compared with any other time... or that you were supposedly somehow smarter than everyone else at that time.  I would suggest that with bitcoin the combination of DCA, lump sum investing and buying the dip are evergreen practices in bitcoinlandia and except maybe having some probabilistically informed ideas about waves, we largely should not be fucking around with either trying to time the market or trying to know where the BTC price is going in the short-term except maybe on the margin so our short-term strategies can largely be merely tweaked from time to time rather than making any kinds of drastic changes because bitcoin seems to continue to be quite decent asymmetric bet.... and yeah, if we are just consistently accumulating BTC with a combination of strategies (DCA, lump sum investing and buying on dip) then we are likely to continue to do well in the long term.. even if it might take a while to build our BTC stash.. depending on if we might have a decent amount of capital to inject upfront.

At some point weren't you even considering changing the title of the thread to something more specific and weird that would try to particularize what you individually think about when and how to buy on dips and maybe not always to buy on dips or some other nonsense like that - because 1) you seemed to be trying to get away from my ongoing refrain about the preferability of DCA in terms of when it doubt buy rather then getting caught up about how much of a dip and if the dip is maximized and all those kinds of difficult to actually carry out in practices, and 2) you were worried that sometimes buying on dips could cause the running out of money if buying too soon - especially if we were to prematurely go into a bear market?

Furthermore, you were also going through a kind of adamant and stubborn phase of NOT wanting to tell newbies to buy BTC or to even go so far as to tell them not to buy (was that occurring for most of 2021, and maybe even ramped up in the May/June/July time... and I am not even saying that you had not been doing that at various times in 2020 too), which I also spent a lot of time battling those kinds of emphasis on HODL and wait ideas, including my considerations that it was advise that was probably more hurtful rather than helpful... and our subsequent BTC price performance has largely been showing that ongoing buying of BTC probably remains as the best of strategies, even if psychologically it can feel better to have some supplemental strategies to attempt to buy on dips, too... and then just HODL when running out of money.. which also can sometimes happen.. and even no matter how long any of us are into BTC, it is ongoingly difficult to know exactly what mistakes people are going to make or even the reality of the difficulties to both determine the extent of any dip or how long such dips are going to last... even if there are a variety of structural ways that people (even newbies) can attempt to plan in advance so that they are not too likely to run out of money for buying, even if the BTC price dips lower than expected and longer than expected.

July 8, 2021, I said,

Watch John Bogle’s advice in how to invest in stocks and equities, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=doKsy4itiRE

John Bogle was a HODLer-type, and was the founder of The Vanguard Group.

It’s obviously very applicable in Bitcoin’s HODL-style investing, and he also addressed and encourged a dollar-cost-averaging strategy. BUT, he also said that an investor should “get in right in the first place”. Is the current market the right time to enter? I believe it’s an opportunity, but leave yourself more capital to average down because no one gets it in right unless you’re very lucky.

You can DCA your way, because maybe you’re rich, with unlimited capital. A pleb like me has limited capital. I can’t waste it by buying stupidly at any price.

We are repeating our lil selfies here.

You can fuck around all that you like with your own holdings and BTC strategies... so when it comes to BTC accumulation normies are likely going to be best served by considering the combination of strategies that prioritize DCA but also consider the use of lump sum investing (to the extent that they have upfront capital) and buying on dips (to the extent that they ongoingly want to hold some of their fiat on the side to be prepared to buy on dips when they inevitably happen).  I doubt that I need to repeat more in regards to my never having had said that DCA should be the ONLY strategy, but if there was a need to pick ONLY one strategy then DCA is the best of the three.. especially for a newbie who might otherwise be confused about what to do and does not want to try to fuck around with anticipating whether a dip has happened or not or how much of a dip, how long the dip might last and all that baloney... so if the DCA buyer has at least a 4 year to 10 year timeline, then it likely is not going to matter too much if s/he might have been able to accumulate a few more sats here and there along the way.. and surely something like $10 per week might be a fairly whimpy strategy (but it is better than nothing), and something like $100 per week would be more aggressive for folks who are ready, willing and able to be aggressive in their DCA'ing.

Of course, we could get into individual particulars, but surely anyone who is quite new to bitcoin might well need to study bitcoin while determining how they feel financially and/or psychologically regarding their level of aggressiveness.. so right off the bat, if they are feeling somewhat hesitant, they might want to start with $10 per week as they study the matter, and if they end up learning more and increasing their confidence levels they may well want to increase their invested amount to $100 or more per week.. and surely incorporating lump sum investing and some strategies regarding buying on dips... after they have become more comfortable.

Again, of course, we can look at historical DCA levels to determine if such DCA strategies could have been beat or if we might have had more insight than just sticking with some of the purity...   Whether we look at your forum registration date of May 2016 or my own BTC investing starting date of November/December 2013, and we can see that $10 per week would have put us at $55.5k (nearly 1 BTC) (18.15x appreciation) and $269.5k (nearly 4.6 BTC) (63.5x appreciation) respectively, and of course, we can multiply those same numbers by 10 if we want to assess how a $100 per week DCA strategy would have performed to have been at $555k (nearly 10 BTC) and $2.695 million (nearly 46 BTC) respectively....

Sure, there are ways to fuck around and to end up beating those kinds of results, but do any normies have time for that or to be taking chances with various gambling strategies?

So in essence, I see no reason to be poo-pooing DCA strategy as if it were not smart enough... because it remains the best of the foundational BTC accumulation strategies historically (and likely to continue to be), and sure play around with timing with part of your income or value but you are not too likely to be outperforming DCA, even if you feel that you have the luxury to play around with some of your value (even if you consider your luxury to be a necessity.. which it is not... DCA is a poor and ignorant man strategy that applies to everyone (which is the vast majority of peeps and has almost nothing to do with size) until they become more informed and sophisticated.. and to the extent that you feel your lil selfie to be more informed and sophisticated, then you can fuck around with an incorporate more sophisticated strategies - hopefully supplementing DCA but if you want to skip DCA all together because you believe that it is inferior or it is below you, then that is on you.. but still does not mean that what you are doing is superior to DCA... and including DCA as a foundational strategy that can be supplemented).

By the way, I will admit that when I came into BTC in late 2013, I had already established an overall decently large investment portfolio, so I did have lump sum investment funds that were available to me right from the start, so in that sense, I could take from my overall investment portfolio and to allocate into bitcoin.  But merely the fact that I had the lump sum amounts would not necessarily mean that I should immediately go straight into bitcoin with the portion that I ended up allocating (which was 10%).  When I first came to bitcoin I hardly had any clue regarding how much I was going to want to put into bitcoin in the longer run.. so my initial investment timeline was only 1-2 years.. and I had allocated an initial sum that I would invest over the next 6 months.. so with that initial sum, I divided it up into 26 parts (weekly) and I DCA'd with part of it and tried to buy on dips with the remainder for each week.. but in essence I was spending the whole budgeted amount per week over each of the 26 weeks.  Of course, I had pretty decent confidence of various budget sources that I would have and when approaching the end of the first 26 weeks, I ended up extending another 26 weeks with a similar budget. and by close to the end of the second 26 weeks, I started to get some better grasps regarding the extent that I wanted to be in bitcoin and continued to study what I wanted to do in terms of allocation.. which I determined to be 10% at the end of the second 26 weeks and not at the beginning of my investment into BTC or even after I had been in BTC for a while.. I worked out some of those things through my first year of investing into bitcoin by getting to both know myself better and to know my views about BTC better.

As you suggested that I had been some kind of lucky fuck to have had a BIGGER budget or whatever, but even though I do admit that I had a budget from the start of my BTC investment, I still ended up mostly following a kind of hybrid DCA strategy in which I had engaged in some attempts to frontload my investment into BTC because I wanted to feel that I had a sufficient stake into BTC, but it still took me about a year before I started to feel that I had a decent stake in BTC.. and after the first year I could still relax.. and upon reflection even though I had always tried to NOT be too emotional about my BTC investment or the strategies that I employed.. I do feel that I became much more relaxed about my BTC investment once it started to go significantly into profits..so even then I am not sure that I was preoccupied with amounts because I had already established me stake within the first year but still there continued to be some gnawing aspect that allowed me to become more and more relaxed as my BTC holdings went more and more in profits.. while not really taking away my ability to relate to many others who might not have lump sums that they can invest but instead rely upon DCAing into BTC over several years (maybe even a whole 4 year cycle or longer) before they might start to feel some comfort levels with their BTC holdings  and like you said they may well be able to supplement their DCAing strategy with both lump sum investing and buying on dips along the way (even though you personally seem to want to skip the most important of the investment strategies, which is the DCA portion).

Watch John Bogle’s advice in how to invest in stocks and equities, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=doKsy4itiRE

John Bogle was a HODLer-type, and was the founder of The Vanguard Group.
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It’s obviously very applicable in Bitcoin’s HODL-style investing, and he also addressed and encourged a dollar-cost-averaging strategy. BUT, he also said that an investor should “get in right in the first place”. Is the current market the right time to enter? I believe it’s an opportunity, but leave yourself more capital to average down because no one gets it in right unless you’re very lucky.


You can DCA your way, because maybe you’re rich, with unlimited capital. A pleb like me has limited capital. I can’t waste it by buying stupidly at any price.

The issue is that it is often only possible to tell whether you bought stupidly or smartly in hindsight. Bitcoin surprised investors again and again, me included. Yet I did buy the dips a lot, but as you said you need to be relatively rich or have reasonable income streams to also be able and buy the dips or to not get too stressed out when you thought you were buying a dip but you didn't. Those who had a lot of money before Bitcoin went for the first big rallies also made the most money. It is easer to justify holding when you have 10 million in the bank and your Bitcoins are now worth 30 million and you still don't sell compared to having 10k in the bank and the Bitcoins you are holding are now worth 30k. From a certain point onwards, and of course depending on your lifestyle, it is much easier emotionally to drive the Bitcoin rollercoaster.

I cannot really disagree with anything you say @temple because you are not really making any points that are much different from my own points in terms of the various kinds of strategies to both tailorize your approach to your own situation while at the same time that tailoring may well provide a certain level of comfort that likely comes more and more after you are in BTC for a longer period of time.. so long as you have continued to invest decently into BTC..

Of course, normies do not necessarily have lump sums of cash that they can just throw into BTC, and that is part of the rationale in which DCA remains amongst the most powerful of investment strategies for the vast majority of normies... and even folks who might have lump sums might not want to just throw it all (or a large portion of it) into bitcoin.. especially if they are either just learning about bitcoin or they are confused by bitcoin's future price direction (which we are never really going to know at the time that we are investing even though we see that over time there had been various times in which it would have been smarter to just lump sum into bitcoin.., but even then, we do not know with any kind of certainty..except after the fact).

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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December 03, 2021, 09:37:02 AM
 #1224

One of the simple things is that if someone buys crypto from the dip and hold it , he must be able to make a good profit, otherwise if he cannot buy from the dip, the percentage will be reduced. Especially if the newcomers are doing this job i.e. bypassing the dip and then selling it then they will definitely be able to make good profit.

We are not talking about buying crypto here.. that would be dumb.

We are talking about buying bitcoin.

We are also not talking about selling...

So if you have some long term imagination or even enough a timeline that is 4-10 years into the future, ongoing buying is good and buying on dips is good to supplement your long term plans to accumulate BTC.. and maybe after 4- 10 years, you might reconsider if you still want to continue to buy or just hold or maybe consider if you might want to sell some.. later down the road.. not fucking around with short-term profits.. but hoping for longer term accumulation of a large enough BTC stash in order to feel like it was a good investment...

Because we are not merely “investing”, and if you ask me, HODLing Bitcoin is something every individual should do “just in case” you need to utilize Bitcoin’s main value proposition. Censorship-resistance. It is something you think you might not need, until you are forced in a situation that you might need it. Cool

Well like you mentioned, you can call what you are doing what you would like to call it.  You can also establish whatever timeline that you would like, which would also influence your thinking about the matter and your approach  If you are into bitcoin for possible value appreciation or you believe that bitcoin gives you choices/options that you might not otherwise have, then those are your own choices regarding framing of the matter, too.

If you ask me, it’s both. Value appreciation is a feature. Censorship-resistance is a feature. You always have both if you’re HODLing.

I thought that our initial seemingly semantical quibble was about whether putting value into bitcoin would be considered as "investing," and since you seemed to be battling with the use of such a label upon what you believe that you are doing, I ended up ranting on the idea of what is investing versus what else you might be doing if you considered your approach to bitcoin to NOT be "investing."

I cannot disagree with the suggestion that both value appreciation and censorship resistance are ongoing bitcoin features and each of them (as well as both) can contributed towards motivations to "invest" into bitcoin or to continue to hold some portion of your overall investment portfolio in bitcoin.


I was just experessing another viewpoint. In the end of it all, Bitcoin’s main value proposition is censorship-resistance in my opinion, and we don’t know when we will need it until we’ll need it.

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Of course getting into bitcoin does seem to provide a lot more options, and with the passage of time, part of the seeming value proposition of bitcoin continues to be that its likelihood of down or going to zero becomes less and less the longer that it is in existence - but as an individual, even if you create a 1, 2, 4, 10 year or longer timeline for yourself to be into bitcoin, you have the power to override your earlier decision, change your mind abandon the investment or whatever you would like to do.  

So, yes surely one of the reasons to be into bitcoin would be seeming to have more options, and of course, the better that you play your investment into bitcoin, the seeming likelihood that your options will expand even more.. so part of the reason that I had emphasized the longer term way of attempting to consider the matter - even though surely people are free to just consider bitcoin in some kind of a shorter-term time frame - but seems to me that even the premise of the title of this thread (even though you might not have even been clear about some of the underlying implications upon the creation of the thread) is that it considers bitcoin in a kind of  longer time frame.. that is why you at least used the term "HODL" within the title.


I already explained that the “underlying implications” of creating this thread is clear. The original title was, “Buy every dip!”, then look at the date it was started. It was the best opportunity given to us to buy EVERY DIP with everything we can WITHOUT FEAR.

oh gawd...  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Wrong.

You trying to act like some kind of a soothsayer.

Of course, in retrospect we can see that BTC prices had gone down in November/December 2018 from about $6k to almost $3k, and then largely got stuck in the $3,500-ish to $4,200-ish arena until late March 2019.

So yes on about April 1, 2019 BTC prices broke above $4,200 and largely entered into a 3 month UPpity journey to reach $13,800 by the end of July without any significant price correction during that time.

Surely, there was some kind of trepidation during late 2018 and early 2019 regarding whether the $3,124 bottom of December 17, 2018 was in.. so no one really knew that bitcoin was going to rip UPpity.. or to have further corrections, and surely there were quite a few people still anticipating or predicting  that the $3,124 bottom was not in and that supposedly bitcoin needed to test sub $2k prices and even sub $1,500 prices (which would have largely been revisiting the price arena of our 2013 top).

Retrospectively you can suggest that you had some level of confidence regarding what to do but largely you are talking nonsense to the extent that a buying the dip strategy was any more advantageous or knowable at that time as compared with any other time... or that you were supposedly somehow smarter than everyone else at that time.  I would suggest that with bitcoin the combination of DCA, lump sum investing and buying the dip are evergreen practices in bitcoinlandia and except maybe having some probabilistically informed ideas about waves, we largely should not be fucking around with either trying to time the market or trying to know where the BTC price is going in the short-term except maybe on the margin so our short-term strategies can largely be merely tweaked from time to time rather than making any kinds of drastic changes because bitcoin seems to continue to be quite decent asymmetric bet.... and yeah, if we are just consistently accumulating BTC with a combination of strategies (DCA, lump sum investing and buying on dip) then we are likely to continue to do well in the long term.. even if it might take a while to build our BTC stash.. depending on if we might have a decent amount of capital to inject upfront.


No, ser. I’m merely a pleb, who is simply trying to follow market cycles, and simply who is using some common sense. Or 2019 was luck, but if a big crash comes again early during 2022, bringing another long bear market, common sense should tell you that bottom will possibly be during 2023.

Is there anything “soothsayer” about that?

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At some point weren't you even considering changing the title of the thread to something more specific and weird that would try to particularize what you individually think about when and how to buy on dips and maybe not always to buy on dips or some other nonsense like that - because 1) you seemed to be trying to get away from my ongoing refrain about the preferability of DCA in terms of when it doubt buy rather then getting caught up about how much of a dip and if the dip is maximized and all those kinds of difficult to actually carry out in practices, and 2) you were worried that sometimes buying on dips could cause the running out of money if buying too soon - especially if we were to prematurely go into a bear market?

Furthermore, you were also going through a kind of adamant and stubborn phase of NOT wanting to tell newbies to buy BTC or to even go so far as to tell them not to buy (was that occurring for most of 2021, and maybe even ramped up in the May/June/July time... and I am not even saying that you had not been doing that at various times in 2020 too), which I also spent a lot of time battling those kinds of emphasis on HODL and wait ideas, including my considerations that it was advise that was probably more hurtful rather than helpful... and our subsequent BTC price performance has largely been showing that ongoing buying of BTC probably remains as the best of strategies, even if psychologically it can feel better to have some supplemental strategies to attempt to buy on dips, too... and then just HODL when running out of money.. which also can sometimes happen.. and even no matter how long any of us are into BTC, it is ongoingly difficult to know exactly what mistakes people are going to make or even the reality of the difficulties to both determine the extent of any dip or how long such dips are going to last... even if there are a variety of structural ways that people (even newbies) can attempt to plan in advance so that they are not too likely to run out of money for buying, even if the BTC price dips lower than expected and longer than expected.

July 8, 2021, I said,

Watch John Bogle’s advice in how to invest in stocks and equities, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=doKsy4itiRE

John Bogle was a HODLer-type, and was the founder of The Vanguard Group.

It’s obviously very applicable in Bitcoin’s HODL-style investing, and he also addressed and encourged a dollar-cost-averaging strategy. BUT, he also said that an investor should “get in right in the first place”. Is the current market the right time to enter? I believe it’s an opportunity, but leave yourself more capital to average down because no one gets it in right unless you’re very lucky.

You can DCA your way, because maybe you’re rich, with unlimited capital. A pleb like me has limited capital. I can’t waste it by buying stupidly at any price.

We are repeating our lil selfies here.

You can fuck around all that you like with your own holdings and BTC strategies... so when it comes to BTC accumulation normies are likely going to be best served by considering the combination of strategies that prioritize DCA but also consider the use of lump sum investing (to the extent that they have upfront capital) and buying on dips (to the extent that they ongoingly want to hold some of their fiat on the side to be prepared to buy on dips when they inevitably happen).  I doubt that I need to repeat more in regards to my never having had said that DCA should be the ONLY strategy, but if there was a need to pick ONLY one strategy then DCA is the best of the three.. especially for a newbie who might otherwise be confused about what to do and does not want to try to fuck around with anticipating whether a dip has happened or not or how much of a dip, how long the dip might last and all that baloney... so if the DCA buyer has at least a 4 year to 10 year timeline, then it likely is not going to matter too much if s/he might have been able to accumulate a few more sats here and there along the way.. and surely something like $10 per week might be a fairly whimpy strategy (but it is better than nothing), and something like $100 per week would be more aggressive for folks who are ready, willing and able to be aggressive in their DCA'ing.

Of course, we could get into individual particulars, but surely anyone who is quite new to bitcoin might well need to study bitcoin while determining how they feel financially and/or psychologically regarding their level of aggressiveness.. so right off the bat, if they are feeling somewhat hesitant, they might want to start with $10 per week as they study the matter, and if they end up learning more and increasing their confidence levels they may well want to increase their invested amount to $100 or more per week.. and surely incorporating lump sum investing and some strategies regarding buying on dips... after they have become more comfortable.

Again, of course, we can look at historical DCA levels to determine if such DCA strategies could have been beat or if we might have had more insight than just sticking with some of the purity...   Whether we look at your forum registration date of May 2016 or my own BTC investing starting date of November/December 2013, and we can see that $10 per week would have put us at $55.5k (nearly 1 BTC) (18.15x appreciation) and $269.5k (nearly 4.6 BTC) (63.5x appreciation) respectively, and of course, we can multiply those same numbers by 10 if we want to assess how a $100 per week DCA strategy would have performed to have been at $555k (nearly 10 BTC) and $2.695 million (nearly 46 BTC) respectively....

Sure, there are ways to fuck around and to end up beating those kinds of results, but do any normies have time for that or to be taking chances with various gambling strategies?

So in essence, I see no reason to be poo-pooing DCA strategy as if it were not smart enough... because it remains the best of the foundational BTC accumulation strategies historically (and likely to continue to be), and sure play around with timing with part of your income or value but you are not too likely to be outperforming DCA, even if you feel that you have the luxury to play around with some of your value (even if you consider your luxury to be a necessity.. which it is not... DCA is a poor and ignorant man strategy that applies to everyone (which is the vast majority of peeps and has almost nothing to do with size) until they become more informed and sophisticated.. and to the extent that you feel your lil selfie to be more informed and sophisticated, then you can fuck around with an incorporate more sophisticated strategies - hopefully supplementing DCA but if you want to skip DCA all together because you believe that it is inferior or it is below you, then that is on you.. but still does not mean that what you are doing is superior to DCA... and including DCA as a foundational strategy that can be supplemented).

By the way, I will admit that when I came into BTC in late 2013, I had already established an overall decently large investment portfolio, so I did have lump sum investment funds that were available to me right from the start, so in that sense, I could take from my overall investment portfolio and to allocate into bitcoin.  But merely the fact that I had the lump sum amounts would not necessarily mean that I should immediately go straight into bitcoin with the portion that I ended up allocating (which was 10%).  When I first came to bitcoin I hardly had any clue regarding how much I was going to want to put into bitcoin in the longer run.. so my initial investment timeline was only 1-2 years.. and I had allocated an initial sum that I would invest over the next 6 months.. so with that initial sum, I divided it up into 26 parts (weekly) and I DCA'd with part of it and tried to buy on dips with the remainder for each week.. but in essence I was spending the whole budgeted amount per week over each of the 26 weeks.  Of course, I had pretty decent confidence of various budget sources that I would have and when approaching the end of the first 26 weeks, I ended up extending another 26 weeks with a similar budget. and by close to the end of the second 26 weeks, I started to get some better grasps regarding the extent that I wanted to be in bitcoin and continued to study what I wanted to do in terms of allocation.. which I determined to be 10% at the end of the second 26 weeks and not at the beginning of my investment into BTC or even after I had been in BTC for a while.. I worked out some of those things through my first year of investing into bitcoin by getting to both know myself better and to know my views about BTC better.

As you suggested that I had been some kind of lucky fuck to have had a BIGGER budget or whatever, but even though I do admit that I had a budget from the start of my BTC investment, I still ended up mostly following a kind of hybrid DCA strategy in which I had engaged in some attempts to frontload my investment into BTC because I wanted to feel that I had a sufficient stake into BTC, but it still took me about a year before I started to feel that I had a decent stake in BTC.. and after the first year I could still relax.. and upon reflection even though I had always tried to NOT be too emotional about my BTC investment or the strategies that I employed.. I do feel that I became much more relaxed about my BTC investment once it started to go significantly into profits..so even then I am not sure that I was preoccupied with amounts because I had already established me stake within the first year but still there continued to be some gnawing aspect that allowed me to become more and more relaxed as my BTC holdings went more and more in profits.. while not really taking away my ability to relate to many others who might not have lump sums that they can invest but instead rely upon DCAing into BTC over several years (maybe even a whole 4 year cycle or longer) before they might start to feel some comfort levels with their BTC holdings  and like you said they may well be able to supplement their DCAing strategy with both lump sum investing and buying on dips along the way (even though you personally seem to want to skip the most important of the investment strategies, which is the DCA portion).


I never disagreed about DCA, but my point is be wise about it. We can’t simply buy anytime stupidly because that would be an inefficient way to use capital.


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December 03, 2021, 09:43:23 AM
 #1225

This is always said by so many people, "Buy the dip and HODL.".  But there is a truth also like it is really hard to know what level is the dip. Sometimes, we think a specific price as a dip level and buy from it. But after some time, the price goes down even more and the level we bought turns out not to be the dip. Or we can look at this from an aspect like there are multiple dip levels and we could at least catch one of them.
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December 04, 2021, 10:45:06 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #1226

This is always said by so many people, "Buy the dip and HODL.".  But there is a truth also like it is really hard to know what level is the dip. Sometimes, we think a specific price as a dip level and buy from it. But after some time, the price goes down even more and the level we bought turns out not to be the dip. Or we can look at this from an aspect like there are multiple dip levels and we could at least catch one of them.


It’s not loss-proof, that’s why reduce your average entry price through DCA. Plus plebs like us will never make the perfect entry all of the time. If you are stressed because of Bitcoin’s volatility, but want to buy the lowest of the “DIP”? Then wait for the next bear cycle. When? I’m not so sure, if previous cycles are to be followed, it’s going to be on 2023.

Although a warning, the current bull cycle has not yet ended in my opinion, and this current DIP might be lower compared to any of the lowest DIPs of 2023. Zoom out, https://bitcoin.zorinaq.com/price/

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December 04, 2021, 05:26:52 PM
 #1227

This is always said by so many people, "Buy the dip and HODL.".  But there is a truth also like it is really hard to know what level is the dip. Sometimes, we think a specific price as a dip level and buy from it. But after some time, the price goes down even more and the level we bought turns out not to be the dip. Or we can look at this from an aspect like there are multiple dip levels and we could at least catch one of them.

That is part of the reason why DCA is a better strategy - even if it might be a good practice to also supplement your strategy with buying on dips and also lump sum investing.

Sure, you are not going to know either how far any dip is going ot go or how long it is going to last, even though you might be able to formulate some ideas about both how long it might last and how low it might go... and those formulated ideas might end up being wrong, so there might be some benefits to having some systematic locations in which you buy on the dip even if it might not be a precise science and each of us will make those determinations (and set up those kinds of systems) in differing ways to attempt to accomplish our own particular goals and to tailorize what we are doing to our own financial and psychological situations.

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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December 05, 2021, 05:55:40 PM
 #1228

Those who are seeking the dip i think the current market is for them. Bitcoin price fall down at the same time all others coins down significantly. Most of the cons price down more then 15% so it is better to invest for any selected cons as the dip and if these cons hold for some times then have the possibility to get huge profit. 

This thread is about bitcoin - we are not talking about buying "other coins" aka various shitcoins with this strategy... that may well be a topic for another thread.

Regarding your point about "seeking the dip,"  I find that phraseology to be a bit problematic, even though surely it is true that some folks do seek and/or hope for the dip - especially if they are early in their BTC accumulation journey.   Once you have sufficiently and adequately accumulated bitcoin and prepared for UP, you may well not be seeking any dip or hoping for any dip because you are better off if the BTC price goes UP.. however, if such dip does happen, you can still attempt to prepare yourself to take advantage of such dip rather than doing nothing or rather than merely losing value.

For example, I started buying BTC in late 2013 towards the top of that particular cycle, so for the whole of 2014, I was not really bothered by the BTC price going down for the whole year because I continued to buy BTC along the way.  Once I reached my accumulation goal towards the end of the year (2014), then I did not really feel any benefit when the BTC price would go down, so when it went up during subsequent years, I was advantaged by the BTC price going up because I felt that I had established a sufficient and adequate stake in BTC by the end of 2014, but there were many many times along the way that BTC prices went up and down, and surely the preference was always for the price to go up, but sometimes along the way, more BTC could be bought during dips (even though they were not really wanted or hoped for).

I feel that I was a bit lucky because I already had a lump sum that I could invest into BTC, and there are certain advantages (and comfort) that come from going through a whole 4-year bitcoin price cycle... but still it could take  any normie 1-2 cycles to really feel that s/he has established a sufficient quantity of BTC stake.. to feel sufficiently and adequately prepared for UP and no longer wishing or hoping for down.

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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December 06, 2021, 09:59:28 AM
 #1229

Those who are seeking the dip i think the current market is for them. Bitcoin price fall down at the same time all others coins down significantly. Most of the cons price down more then 15% so it is better to invest for any selected cons as the dip and if these cons hold for some times then have the possibility to get huge profit. 

Right now bitcoin is testing the $47K price level and the price decline is almost around 3.82% on this day alone, in my opinion actually the decline that occurred today we should be able to take advantage of by buying bitcoin before the rebound occurs again later, in addition to bitcoin some prices Other cryptos are also having quite a sharp bearish like ethereum which is down almost 5.5% on this day alone, I think now is a good time to get into the market, buy and hold.

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bots1
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December 06, 2021, 12:32:17 PM
 #1230

With the bitcoin market condition currently experiencing a very deep price correction, we can take advantage of the moment according to our risk profile to buy bitcoin at a lower price. Usually, after the correction that occurs in the Bitcoin price, the bitcoin price will stabilize first and then it will rise significantly later.

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Wind_FURY (OP)
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December 07, 2021, 05:16:23 AM
 #1231

Those who are seeking the dip i think the current market is for them. Bitcoin price fall down at the same time all others coins down significantly. Most of the cons price down more then 15% so it is better to invest for any selected cons as the dip and if these cons hold for some times then have the possibility to get huge profit.  

Right now bitcoin is testing the $47K price level and the price decline is almost around 3.82% on this day alone, in my opinion actually the decline that occurred today we should be able to take advantage of by buying bitcoin before the rebound occurs again later, in addition to bitcoin some prices Other cryptos are also having quite a sharp bearish like ethereum which is down almost 5.5% on this day alone, I think now is a good time to get into the market, buy and hold.


The “rebound” usually happens weeks later, don’t be too impatient to buy the DIP right away, letting your emtotions take over. Wait for it to happen. I believe this current small rebound will stop, and Bitcoin will be DIPping soon again.

But I’m a mere pleb, and I’m wrong most of the time. Cool

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JayJuanGee
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December 07, 2021, 05:24:47 AM
 #1232

But I’m a mere pleb, and I’m wrong most a decent amount of the time. Cool

Fixed that for you.

 Wink Wink


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
onecall123
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December 07, 2021, 06:53:36 AM
 #1233

It appears that bitcoin whales are planning to sell soon as BTC price action struggles around $47,000

According to the report, the Taker Buy Sell Ratio continues to be negative, which indicates a bearish market sentiment will prevail in the near future."

This rebound will not be enough to prevent further losses. According to the majority of the market, the downside will continue. Several weeks ago, the majority expected a parabolic run in December. Currently, the market sentiment is what matters most. Despite this, smaller investors have added to their position.

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Wind_FURY (OP)
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December 07, 2021, 11:49:48 AM
 #1234

But I’m a mere pleb, and I’m wrong most a decent amount of the time. Cool

Fixed that for you.

 Wink Wink


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


No, I’m wrong 90% of the time, that’s why I HODL. If I was trading actively, I would either be, stressed and out of savings, or depressed and out of savings. I’m not a whale like you.

There were also some retirees I’ve met in small meet ups who have their monthly pensions to fund their Bitcoin buying spree.

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macson
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December 07, 2021, 04:05:57 PM
 #1235

With the bitcoin market condition currently experiencing a very deep price correction, we can take advantage of the moment according to our risk profile to buy bitcoin at a lower price. Usually, after the correction that occurs in the Bitcoin price, the bitcoin price will stabilize first and then it will rise significantly later.
in the last year, the price of bitcoin has been moving very wildly, i organize my finances into several portions so that i don't run out of money and buy a few bitcoins when the bitcoin price dips to add to my portfolio.  i will sell 25% of the btc i hold when the bitcoin price goes up high and i use the money to buy bitcoins again when it dips in the future.

JayJuanGee
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December 07, 2021, 05:40:22 PM
Last edit: December 07, 2021, 05:51:50 PM by JayJuanGee
 #1236

It appears that bitcoin whales are planning to sell soon as BTC price action struggles around $47,000

According to the report, the Taker Buy Sell Ratio continues to be negative, which indicates a bearish market sentiment will prevail in the near future."

This rebound will not be enough to prevent further losses. According to the majority of the market, the downside will continue. Several weeks ago, the majority expected a parabolic run in December. Currently, the market sentiment is what matters most. Despite this, smaller investors have added to their position.

Good luck if you believe that the BTC price is going down from here based on the ideas of what "people believe/fear".. blah blah blah."  Hopefully, you are not failing/refusing to buy on the dip or to sufficiently and adequately prepare for UP in case the further dip that you are expecting never happens.

But I’m a mere pleb, and I’m wrong most a decent amount of the time. Cool

Fixed that for you.

 Wink Wink


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


No, I’m wrong 90% of the time, that’s why I HODL.

Ok.  I will concede the point.. You are in a better position to know about the amount that you are wrong.. Must suck to be wrong so much.

If I was trading actively, I would either be, stressed and out of savings, or depressed and out of savings.

Generally, speaking trading is not a good idea anyhow, so there seems to be a decent amount of smartness in merely making decisions not to trade.


I’m not a whale like you.

To the extent that whale status is relevant to this discussion, we may well need to define terms.

In any event, I would suggest that a person does not need to be a whale in order to trade, and I have frequently denied that I am a trader in any kind of a traditional concept of the practice of trying to anticipate BTC price direction, and so in that respect, I surely consider BTC a kind of an asset in which it would be prudent to establish accumulation levels and then aim towards reaching those accumulation levels.. so thereafter, once you have achieved your accumulation levels (whatever that might be) then you have more options, which may or may not include the practice of trading.. but surely, I do not recommend BTC trading as a method to help in reaching accumulations, so in that respect, in more than my first 3 years in BTC (which would have been from late 2013 to early 2017), I had always considered replacing any BTC that I sold in a fairly quick manner.. (in other words, not trading at all).. and surely quite a bit of BTC's price rise in 2017 allowed me to have more options in my perspective in how to attempt to manage my BTC holdings.. which I had considered that I had gone from a kind of strict accumulation phase into more of a maintenance stage. .. so in that respect, the extent to which circumstances, views and practices about how to manage BTC holdings change may well depend upon upon how any of us may have gotten to whatever position that we ended up being in.. so in that regard, a certain amount of previous stacking of sats seems to have helped to allow for more options once the BTC price did move significantly up.. which surely was not guaranteed then and continues to NOT be guaranteed now.

There were also some retirees I’ve met in small meet ups who have their monthly pensions to fund their Bitcoin buying spree.

Of course, there can be way more options for any normies who have life long experiences of building wealth - including that in the case that you describe some people had earned income from pensions that give them some flexibilities so long as maybe they have income in other ways to support their lifestyles.

For sure, if someone is very young and has not received any inheritance or some kind of a income from wealthy parents, then that person may well be in a position in which s/he has hardly any assets or investments, so the ONLY thing that s/he has to start with is a cashflow that might also be less than preferred.  I was in a similar position when young.. When I was young and even my first 20 years of living an adult life (let's say through my 20s and 30s), I had largely striven to save/invest at least 10% of my income - whatever level that it was.  In my case (and maybe is true with quite a few people), income has potential to grow quite considerably at various times depending upon what kinds of positions are achieved. and then there can be choices about whether to consume with the increased income or to increase investments, and sometimes both increased consumption and increased investment can be achieved if the income goes up substantially greater than previous levels... and sure no matter what there are going to be temptations in terms of what to invest in and in terms of what to consume.. but if you are able to build a decent-sized nest egg, then the same can be said about anyone's investment into BTC.  

Surely, I am not against any young person to begin investing by ONLY investing into BTC while building some kinds of decently sized investment, and surely if an employer offers a 401k plan there can be a lot of benefits in at least putting as much into such investment plan to receive the maximum matching from the employer, and surely not everyone has 401k plans, but nonetheless, through the years, it is quite likely that people are faced with investment decisions.. including the staying in a job had gotten some people pensions, and other people bounced around from one job to the next to the next and never did end up getting a pension.. so there are varying levels of preparation and luck... and sometimes if we fail/refuse to adequately prepare when we are young, we could end up running into decently bad situations when we are in our 40s, 50s and 60s in which we recognize that we hardly own shit and/or we hardly have any investment and therefore if we hardly have any investment, we are lacking in options as compared with some other people who may have had more luck and/or preparations.

I personally believe that it is likely much more difficult to get lucky if you do not make adequate preparations, and even when you make a lot of good, significant and meaningful preparations, that might not guarantee that you are going to end up being lucky..  Lots of lackings in guarantees in life that's for sure, and sure there are some spoiled rich kids who may well not deserve all of the fortunes that they have, yet we have to be careful in terms of making sure that we are attempting to assess matters in respect to our own situation(s) rather than getting caught up in worrying about what the situations of others may be or may have been - absent that there may still be ways that we can learn from a variety of others, whether they might be in better or worse circumstances than ourselves.

With the bitcoin market condition currently experiencing a very deep price correction, we can take advantage of the moment according to our risk profile to buy bitcoin at a lower price. Usually, after the correction that occurs in the Bitcoin price, the bitcoin price will stabilize first and then it will rise significantly later.
in the last year, the price of bitcoin has been moving very wildly, i organize my finances into several portions so that i don't run out of money and buy a few bitcoins when the bitcoin price dips to add to my portfolio.  i will sell 25% of the btc i hold when the bitcoin price goes up high and i use the money to buy bitcoins again when it dips in the future.

Your plan does not sound horrible.. even though I personally do not necessarily recommend selling large chunks (or any chunks) of BTC in order to expect to be able to buy back at lower prices.. even though I appreciate the concept and the desire to think through the matter regarding how much to sell (and when).

Actually, there is a good thread about considering how to possibly skim off profits (referred to as raking).. which might be helpful for some members who want to consider how to think through and plan to establish their own mindset in the direction of when to sell, how much to sell and why to sell.

(SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan

Of course, in the end, each of us needs to tailor our own BTC portfolio management strategies to our own financial and psychological situations.

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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December 08, 2021, 06:16:36 AM
 #1237


But I’m a mere pleb, and I’m wrong most a decent amount of the time. Cool

Fixed that for you.

 Wink Wink


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


No, I’m wrong 90% of the time, that’s why I HODL.

Ok.  I will concede the point.. You are in a better position to know about the amount that you are wrong.. Must suck to be wrong so much.


No, for me it’s OK because I’m a mere pleb, and I’m not trying to be an influencer. Plus the remaining 10% is the most important, and what truly matters. In an investment standpoint, it was a deciding-factor if I HODL, or broke. Most of my savings went to Bitcoin during 2019.

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December 08, 2021, 10:22:06 AM
 #1238


But I’m a mere pleb, and I’m wrong most a decent amount of the time. Cool

Fixed that for you.

 Wink Wink


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


No, I’m wrong 90% of the time, that’s why I HODL.

Ok.  I will concede the point.. You are in a better position to know about the amount that you are wrong.. Must suck to be wrong so much.

No, for me it’s OK because I’m a mere pleb, and I’m not trying to be an influencer. Plus the remaining 10% is the most important, and what truly matters. In an investment standpoint, it was a deciding-factor if I HODL, or broke. Most of my savings went to Bitcoin during 2019.

I am sure that frequently, you see me spouting out ideas about which way I might believe BTC prices to go in the short term, but I hardly even have any expectation that I am going to be right in terms of price predictions, so very often I assert that I don't really know or care which way the BTC price is going to go in the short term because my system buys on the way down and sells on the way up in such a way that I attempt to be neutral about the short term price movements, even while in the long term - 4 to 10 years or longer, I expect that Bitcoin prices will go up.. even if there is no guarantee, bitcoin still seems to be an asymmetric bet, so we don't even really need to know about which way the BTC price is going to go in the short term. 

Maybe you are saying something similar, I am not sure?  The thing is that you seem to have made determinations to stock up in the long run, and maybe in your case you are placing more emphasis on attempting to buy on dips than what I tend to want to do.. so in that regard, you are attempting to figure out how much of a dip of BTC price is enough and how long will it last in order for you to be able to buy at those lower dip prices, and I am asserting NOT to give too many shits about the dips but just to keep buying, and sure, I am not really saying to NOT buy if you believe that there might be a dip, but don't really get worked up about the extent to which you may or may not be able to figure out if the dip is enough or if it is lasting long enough...so in that regard, I am also not placing a lot of emphasis upon being correct about prices.. .. at least not in the short term... which would be less than 4 years (even though sure there are decently plausible theories about BTC 4-year cycles and also stock to flow is on a four year cycle, too).

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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December 08, 2021, 11:37:46 AM
 #1239

Right now is the right time to enter the market and buy bitcoin, especially now that the market is in a bearish condition and of course we should be able to take advantage of this to buy at a cheap price, I think even though the bitcoin price is currently declining, bitcoin fundamentals are strong Of course it will be able to trigger a refund of the bitcoin price on the market later, I personally have never had any doubts about buying and holding bitcoin for the long term because I firmly believe bitcoin is the safest asset now and for the future.

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December 10, 2021, 11:50:41 PM
 #1240

Those who are seeking the dip i think the current market is for them. Bitcoin price fall down at the same time all others coins down significantly. Most of the cons price down more then 15% so it is better to invest for any selected cons as the dip and if these cons hold for some times then have the possibility to get huge profit. 

Right now bitcoin is testing the $47K price level and the price decline is almost around 3.82% on this day alone, in my opinion actually the decline that occurred today we should be able to take advantage of by buying bitcoin before the rebound occurs again later, in addition to bitcoin some prices Other cryptos are also having quite a sharp bearish like ethereum which is down almost 5.5% on this day alone, I think now is a good time to get into the market, buy and hold.


The “rebound” usually happens weeks later, don’t be too impatient to buy the DIP right away, letting your emtotions take over. Wait for it to happen. I believe this current small rebound will stop, and Bitcoin will be DIPping soon again.

But I’m a mere pleb, and I’m wrong most of the time. Cool
Buying the dip and HODLing is one of the oldest and the most effective ways of making profits with bitcoin. The bitcoin market is fluctuating due to number of reasons either FUD, FOMO, or Speculations. These are the major factors that causes market to move up and down, when the market is down is time to buy, also when the market is up is time to sell.

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