Buy the DIP, and HODL!

[JayJuanGee]

Frequently the reason why I (and maybe some other members will do it to) will show a longer term DCA approach, so if a guy comes in here bragging about how great trading is or some other waiting around strategy is blah blah blah... then we can ask him to compare his own performance to a strict DCA approach, especially if he has been in bitcoin for 6 or more years... the longer that he has been in, the less likely that he is going to be able to say that he has beaten a relatively strict and/or aggressive DCA approach... sure it is possible, but it can take a lot of time to employ various other strategies, including the waiting around strategy.. when it frequently is better to just get the fuck started, buy regularly and then maybe reassess your income versus expenses and maybe the amount of your holdings and your various funds (emergency and reserve funds) from time to time to figure out if you might need to do some tweaking, such as figuring out ways to make more money or to cut some expenses, and maybe figuring out ways to secure your coins, too.

I have been opportune to see few of those we can say they succeeded in trading and there are few things I observed about them that really got me worried. Although they made so much money and can actually show some great cash volumes that passed through their account, a lot of them are not conservative, they use this money lavishly and sometimes in a reckless manner. Beside that, they are so noisy and boastful. I don't know if this habit is common for all others, I'm just talking about the few that I know.

Well it is not as flashy to roll your profits back into BTC, which would be what HODL does, and surely there could be some truth to the flamboyance, but many times those kinds of gambling practices come back to bite folks.  I doubt that this is the place to either get lured into talking about those kind of topics or suggesting that there might be any kinds of consistent ways to profit from trading and/or gambling rather than having more solid practices in which you are rolling your profits rather than spending them all and then not having anything to show for it later down the road.

What I do know is that although those trading may see big wins and may appear rich sometimes, those investing and holding for long becomes richer on the long run, save for the future, enjoy peace of mind and have little to no chance of becoming broke. Unlike the trader than simple mistakes can lead to serious loss.

It is not easy to get rich in a sustainable way, even though some of the BIG Ballers try to act as if there is..

Having examine both options, I tend to love long term investment and will not try or advice anyone to focus on trading as that is exclusively reserved for those who have the skill set and the mind to handle the ups and downs that comes with trading.

People are going to do what they want, so if they have some way to limit their temptations, then that probably would be better, but hey there are a lot of people who think that they are smarter than everyone else and they engage in gambling behaviors that might not be as glamorous  as they are making them out to be.  Even if you are a prudent investor, you still can splurge from time to time, so it is not necessary that you need to be boring.  Maybe sometimes you will be the ONLY one able to splurge if some of the hotshots might end up blowing their wadds, and then might also need to fall back on your help at later dates.

Frequently the reason why I (and maybe some other members will do it to) will show a longer term DCA approach, so if a guy comes in here bragging about how great trading is or some other waiting around strategy is blah blah blah... then we can ask him to compare his own performance to a strict DCA approach, especially if he has been in bitcoin for 6 or more years... the longer that he has been in, the less likely that he is going to be able to say that he has beaten a relatively strict and/or aggressive DCA approach... sure it is possible, but it can take a lot of time to employ various other strategies, including the waiting around strategy.. when it frequently is better to just get the fuck started, buy regularly and then maybe reassess your income versus expenses and maybe the amount of your holdings and your various funds (emergency and reserve funds) from time to time to figure out if you might need to do some tweaking, such as figuring out ways to make more money or to cut some expenses, and maybe figuring out ways to secure your coins, too.

Very interesting, with DCA I actually have an edge over traders, since traders are actually buying and selling bitcoin in short term to make profit, as a long term investor I would have a chance to build a more substantial bitcoin holdings over the long run than to be making profits and having no bitcoin at last, from every angle ive looked at it, long term holders are at much better advantage than traders. No matter how profitable trading is, DCA method beats it. Cause at every interval I'm investing in bitcoin, I'm already a step ahead in building a more substantial value than there are. I'm looking more at the compounding effects my bitcoin holdings would give me and the profits are much larger depending on how long I plan on holding my bitcoin.

Past results do not guarantee future performance, and frequently we will beat up on the traders because they end up not being able to out perform or even come close to performing similar to DCA strategies that tend to take way less work and cause way less stress, but the fact that DCA has historically been a great approach does not guarantee that we will continue to win in that area.

I recall that when I used to project my BTC accumulation amounts, I would project out various scenarios that anticipated worse case, medium case and best case BTC price performance scenarios, so that I could already see the approximate amount of cash that I would be putting in and how many BTC that I would have under the various scenarios... and after certain passages of time, so some of the worse case scenarios might have negative returns and then there would also be 0% returns, and then there would be variations of positive returns such as 3%, 6%, 12% or 20%, so the I could see how much I would be anticipated to put in up until the date of projection, how many BTC I would get under various scenarios, what the price of the BTC would be and what the value of my stash would be, and surely in the longer run my performance ended up gravitating towards beating the most bullish of the expectations that I had outlined, even though in the short term my BTC price performance was leaning towards the worse of the expectation, which the worse performance resulted in more BTC being accumulated, so the accumulation of more BTC ended up causing the amount of BTC that I thought that I would have had accumulate go up, so we know what that ends up meaning (a couple years later) for when the BTC price finally did start to go up... so in the beginning there could end up being some advantages of the asset (BTC in this case) underperforming expectations.

[edited out]

what do you think would be the  best duration in holding?🙂

You have to figure out your own hold time, and I frequently recommend that anyone getting into bitcoin plan to hold any BTC that he buys 4-10 years or more from the time of purchase, so if you continue to DCA into BTC for 4 years, you will start to have some bitcoin that you bought earlier that would have had already met your 4 year minimum timeline, and any new bitcoin that you buy, even after 4 years investing would have a 4-10 year timeline for them to be justified in buying.. in terms of being considered as long term investments.

Of course you have flexibility and discretion and hopefully if you spend time accumulating bitcoin, then you also spend time learning along the way so that you are prepared when various next steps come in which you might transition from BTC accumulation and into some other potential stage of your BTC journey, whether that be maintenance or liquidation or some other way of thinking about your holdings.

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[michellee]

trading is actually good when it comes to making short term profiting, but not everyone can just dive into trading just like that without any proper proper researching or risk management. You need time to learn more about trading before diving into it, while holding on the other hand don't actually require such skills or time. You just need to make research on the right coin to hold but bitcoin as made that easy because is the best coin, especially when it's comes to holding (long-term investment) is not as risky as other coins. I do trade but still prefer holding.

Bitcoin is the most popular among the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin is now known by people all over the world. Bitcoin is slowly gaining ground among people all over the world. We will be wrong to compare it with other coin trading. Because I know, investing in Bitcoin is completely safe.  But to invest in Bitcoin you have to wait a long time to get profit after investing. So far I have never faced any loss by investing in Bitcoin and hope not in the future. To me Bitcoin is very popular and I believe in Bitcoin that's why I invest in Bitcoin most of the time.

Moreover, with the ETF approval yesterday, Bitcoin will become increasingly well known among entrepreneurs and business people. They will see how much potential profit they can get from Bitcoin. Investing in Bitcoin is for the long term and it gives you peace of mind because you don't have to deal with price changes.

You only need to hold Bitcoin until the limit you determine to sell the Bitcoin. Many people have held Bitcoin for a long time and cashed out at the right time. These people can take advantage of the potential profits from Bitcoin. We can also be like them but must learn more about becoming a strong Bitcoin holder.

While people can make short and medium term profits from trading Bitcoin, they can also make huge profits if they accumulate a lot of Bitcoin. They must be able to store their Bitcoins for the long term to maximize profits.

[Moreno233]

trading is actually good when it comes to making short term profiting, but not everyone can just dive into trading just like that without any proper proper researching or risk management. You need time to learn more about trading before diving into it, while holding on the other hand don't actually require such skills or time. You just need to make research on the right coin to hold but bitcoin as made that easy because is the best coin, especially when it's comes to holding (long-term investment) is not as risky as other coins. I do trade but still prefer holding.

Bitcoin is the most popular among the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin is now known by people all over the world. Bitcoin is slowly gaining ground among people all over the world. We will be wrong to compare it with other coin trading. Because I know, investing in Bitcoin is completely safe.  But to invest in Bitcoin you have to wait a long time to get profit after investing. So far I have never faced any loss by investing in Bitcoin and hope not in the future. To me Bitcoin is very popular and I believe in Bitcoin that's why I invest in Bitcoin most of the time.

Moreover, with the ETF approval yesterday, Bitcoin will become increasingly well known among entrepreneurs and business people. They will see how much potential profit they can get from Bitcoin. Investing in Bitcoin is for the long term and it gives you peace of mind because you don't have to deal with price changes.

I had huge expectations from the Bitcoin ETF regarding the price, but it turned out the ETF was hyped hence, it could not provide the sustainable increase in price most Bitcoiners were expecting. This now shows that nothing is really guaranteed in the Bitcoin market, all we do are just predictions. I think it is high time we moved past this ETF stories and look at the bigger picture and how to take advantage of the lower prices we are seeing now. Those using DCA should continue and not be discouraged by the drop in price when everyone expected a rise. Those buying the dips should as well continue as the market has continued to present us such opportunities for a while now.

You only need to hold Bitcoin until the limit you determine to sell the Bitcoin. Many people have held Bitcoin for a long time and cashed out at the right time. These people can take advantage of the potential profits from Bitcoin. We can also be like them but must learn more about becoming a strong Bitcoin holder.

I do not think a time will come when I will sell all my Bitcoin irrespective of the price it gets to. I wouldn't want to make the mistake of not owning Bitcoin because if I sell all, building it back will be a problem. I know some persons who did this but ended up feeling that the price of Bitcoin have gone too high so it will not give them much profit again. So they decided to buy low cap coins, I'm sure you already know how this will end for them. Many of them are not happy with that decision and wished they could turn back the hands of time.

[I_Anime]

You have to figure out your own hold time, and I frequently recommend that anyone getting into bitcoin plan to hold any BTC that he buys 4-10 years or more from the time of purchase, so if you continue to DCA into BTC for 4 years, you will start to have some bitcoin that you bought earlier that would have had already met your 4 year minimum timeline, and any new bitcoin that you buy, even after 4 years investing would have a 4-10 year timeline for them to be justified in buying.. in terms of being considered as long term investments.

Of course you have flexibility and discretion and hopefully if you spend time accumulating bitcoin, then you also spend time learning along the way so that you are prepared when various next steps come in which you might transition from BTC accumulation and into some other potential stage of your BTC journey, whether that be maintenance or liquidation or some other way of thinking about your holdings.

That's actually a nice range or duration to hold, like those that started holding around the year 2020 during the last halving when bitcon price was 4 digit number, and now bitcoin price now 5 digit you can see the great changes in  price, and more great changes is yet to come so  as we continue with DCA strategies we could actually still gain massively (long-term investment).

Bitcoin is the most popular among the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin is now known by people all over the world. Bitcoin is slowly gaining ground among people all over the world. We will be wrong to compare it with other coin trading. Because I know, investing in Bitcoin is completely safe.  But to invest in Bitcoin you have to wait a long time to get profit after investing. So far I have never faced any loss by investing in Bitcoin and hope not in the future. To me Bitcoin is very popular and I believe in Bitcoin that's why I invest in Bitcoin most of the time.

Exactly that what am talking about investing in bitcoin is stress free compare to others coin,  bitcoin is truly a beauty bitcoin could be on its lowest but just in a short period of time boom!!! Is already at the top   beating it's recent prices. While some coin may dip and would take them years to bounce back while some may even end up not able to bounce bank from the dip. Those days my confidence in investment where pretty low due to the poor knowledge I have about it. Now bitcoin has help in boosting my confidence.😌 That why in bitcoin you don't only invest your funds in it you got to invest your time In it also.

[Taskford]

Actually I no that every investors has there own strategy that favours them but however I would suggest that you shouldn't only focus on buying Bitcoin when it gets to $38k because there is no any certainty that Bitcoin price will drop to that price you intend to buy because the reason why I'm saying this is that I have seen numerous of investors who focus on buying Bitcoin only when it gets to a particular price and they waited for a long time and the price could not get to there intended points as such they missed all the opportunity they had on taking advantage and accumulate Bitcoin.

Waiting for Bitcoin to drop to $38k before buying can be risky because it's quite likely that Bitcoin might not go down to that specific price again. Instead, it could only dip to $40k and then start rising once more. This waiting game might cause you to miss out on the opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin for the entire year. Many people made this mistake when Bitcoin dropped to $20k; they expected further drops, kept waiting, and missed the chance to start buying. While getting Bitcoin at low prices is beneficial, waiting for an even deeper dip might not be a wise strategy.It's possible that the price may never reach the level you're aiming for, leading to missed opportunities and regret. It's important to strike a balance between waiting for a good price and seizing the opportunity when it arises.

I'm happy to have passed this stage in my Bitcoin journey, at least I know what I am doing and what to look out for, I have develop a method of building my Bitcoin portfolio that helps me buy effortlessly without having to be confused. Those who are yet should do same, chose your method of buying and work with it to avoid distractions because building Bitcoin portfolio could turn emotional exercise if not followed with rules.

To be specific, I adopted the DCA method some time ago and I have been using same to build my portfolio. I'm happy with the result so far and I'm glad I was able to make the decision to use it. I could buy at the dip once in a while depending if I got excess of my projected income. When I do this, I buy when the market drops and become a little stable within a zone. I don't usually care if it goes further than that after all, the DCA method is in place to buy if it gets lower.

The early one develop a strategy in buying Bitcoin, the better because a strategy saves a lot of energies and time.

Holding Bitcoin for long term rather than Short term trading reduces the risk of lossing value to Short term Price fluctuations while still having the opportunity to benefit from Long term price appreciation, Bitcoin has not had a crash since creation (2009) I want to be part of the change Bitcoin is bringing to the world as I continue to accumulate through the DCA strategy I learnt in this forum and having my emergency fund set aside specifically to overcome the thought of selling in time of unforseen contingencies that may arise in the process of accumulation.

Selling short term will just create some impression for those traders that they can only earn limited percentage for bitcoin since this is they can only trade with its limited movement of the market. But if they just realize how huge the potential to gain a lot of profit if they are into long term hodl for sure they will adopt this kind of set up and ignore those daily trades they do since its kinda waste of their efforts and somehow this is dangerous for them to lose their money knowing how volatile the market which it can affect their decision making in short period of time.

That's the reason bitcoin is always best for long term and traders should aim for that since for many times this coin prove that it brings some good profit to the holders if they just have long patience to wait for great pumps to come. We could make it those past years as bases and we can really agree when saying that they are so lucky for accumulating early and they are now enjoying what they invest for long time with this current rate we have now.

[Negotiation]

The market is now at $41000 but there are many investors who are waiting for the market to come below $40K. If investors pledge to come below 40k then they might miss out on investing now. The market broke out of the barrier of $41K and went down, but the market did not last long, and soon the market went back above $41K. There isn't much difference between $40K and $41K when it comes to long-term investing. If a person invests one bitcoin the dollar difference will be one thousand dollars but most investors will not invest one btc at the same time. If under $40k is a good time to invest then I would say $41k is not a bad time to invest either.  Investors invested $30K $40K and a maximum of $48K.  

Investors have invested step by step but no one has done wrong by investing. Those who bought bitcoins during relatively high prices will probably sell bitcoins at relatively high prices, there will be demand to sell as much as to buy. Those who are waiting for the investment of forty thousand dollars can invest according to the current market if they want. I hope that your investment opportunity will not be missed.

The market is now fully in correction mode, if it should not be said but there is a phase of the market where the market will stabilize but should not be called stable yet. Now if you want to see the market going up then it's very wrong. then the market will correct the whole price and then go to initiative, then when the market should go there will be no chance of going down, but I agree with you that it's close to $40k thousand an important point and time investment, this opportunity they will miss or they may never get this opportunity.

What I feel is that the market is not likely to move very high in the next one to two weeks and neither is it likely to move very low.

[Wind_FURY]

These institutions have a growing treasury of Bitcoin in their vaults, https://bitcointreasuries.net/

In this topic, I will sound like a broken record/an insane person who will keep repeating this same advice over and over. Don't let the institutions front run you, YOU front run them. Buy the DIP, DCA, or both. You do what you're comfortable doing, but the important thing is to HODL those coins in cold-storage and never let the institutions get them from you. Probably give them a very small amount for the right price. Offer some for seven digits.

[JayJuanGee]

I fixed your quotes.. since you were ambiguous in terms of who you were quoting.. you quoted me in the first part, and then you quoted rojan in the second part..

Guys in this thread should not have to fix your quotes in order to clarify what you should have had clarified (meaning who you were quoting)...

You have to figure out your own hold time, and I frequently recommend that anyone getting into bitcoin plan to hold any BTC that he buys 4-10 years or more from the time of purchase, so if you continue to DCA into BTC for 4 years, you will start to have some bitcoin that you bought earlier that would have had already met your 4 year minimum timeline, and any new bitcoin that you buy, even after 4 years investing would have a 4-10 year timeline for them to be justified in buying.. in terms of being considered as long term investments.

Of course you have flexibility and discretion and hopefully if you spend time accumulating bitcoin, then you also spend time learning along the way so that you are prepared when various next steps come in which you might transition from BTC accumulation and into some other potential stage of your BTC journey, whether that be maintenance or liquidation or some other way of thinking about your holdings.

That's actually a nice range or duration to hold, like those that started holding around the year 2020 during the last halving when bitcon price was 4 digit number, and now bitcoin price now 5 digit you can see the great changes in  price, and more great changes is yet to come so  as we continue with DCA strategies we could actually still gain massively (long-term investment).

Even though I like to use timeframes of 4-10 years or longer, the fact of the matter is that bitcoin remains something like a lifetime investment in which you likely would not and should not be getting in and out of it, so starting out with 4 years as a minimum timeline is to attempt to get newbies to stop thinking about either getting in and out or trying to play the waves within the cycles.  Surely if you have a timeline that is less than 4 years, you still could invest into bitcoin, buy you may well need to consider smaller amounts rather than larger amounts... so maybe if you would have invested 10% of your income into bitcoin if you had a 4-10 year or longer timeline, then  maybe if you had less than a 4 year timeline, then you may well end up considering 5% or less.

Another thing is that in late 2013, when I first got into bitcoin, i was thinking in terms of my minimum investment timeline into bitcoin to be 1-2 years, and I would study it along the way, but I think that bitcoin's investment thesis is much stronger these days than it was in late 2013 - which seems part of the justification that newbies should be able to come to bitcoin with a minimum investment timeline of 4-10 years or longer.

Another point about how much to invest into bitcoin, prior to March 2020, I had been suggesting that newbies come in with 1% to 10% and just get off zero was a kind of focus, but after March 2020, it seems to have had become justifiable to upgrade that initial consideration, and since then I have been recommending considering 1% to 25% for newbies, and it is not really that any of us should consider that we need to take more risk in terms of investing into bitcoin since bitcoin already can be justified in terms of a strong asymmetric Upside bet, so there is no need to really invest a lot in order to potentially profit a lot, while at the same time, the downside risk has been buttressed too.. which also justifies the consideration of a range that is broader than 1-10% and becoming 1-25%, even for newbie investors to account for.

Surely there are no guarantees, and each person is responsible for his own investment choices.  

Bitcoin is the most popular among the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin is now known by people all over the world. Bitcoin is slowly gaining ground among people all over the world. We will be wrong to compare it with other coin trading. Because I know, investing in Bitcoin is completely safe.  But to invest in Bitcoin you have to wait a long time to get profit after investing. So far I have never faced any loss by investing in Bitcoin and hope not in the future. To me Bitcoin is very popular and I believe in Bitcoin that's why I invest in Bitcoin most of the time.

Exactly that what am talking about investing in bitcoin is stress free compare to others coin,  bitcoin is truly a beauty bitcoin could be on its lowest but just in a short period of time boom!!! Is already at the top   beating it's recent prices. While some coin may dip and would take them years to bounce back while some may even end up not able to bounce bank from the dip. Those days my confidence in investment where pretty low due to the poor knowledge I have about it. Now bitcoin has help in boosting my confidence.😌 That why in bitcoin you don't only invest your funds in it you got to invest your time In it also.

Both of you are talking as if bitcoin is guaranteed.. and sure you may end up being right about bitcoin going up and being the best of investments, but still your way of talking seems both strange and dangerous.. even though surely people do get excited in those kind of ways about bitcoin..but still it seems misleading and maybe not evven healthy to be thinking or talking about bitcoin as if it were guaranteed.

The market is now at $41000 but there are many investors who are waiting for the market to come below $40K. If investors pledge to come below 40k then they might miss out on investing now. The market broke out of the barrier of $41K and went down, but the market did not last long, and soon the market went back above $41K. There isn't much difference between $40K and $41K when it comes to long-term investing. If a person invests one bitcoin the dollar difference will be one thousand dollars but most investors will not invest one btc at the same time. If under $40k is a good time to invest then I would say $41k is not a bad time to invest either.  Investors invested $30K $40K and a maximum of $48K.  

Investors have invested step by step but no one has done wrong by investing. Those who bought bitcoins during relatively high prices will probably sell bitcoins at relatively high prices, there will be demand to sell as much as to buy. Those who are waiting for the investment of forty thousand dollars can invest according to the current market if they want. I hope that your investment opportunity will not be missed.

The market is now fully in correction mode, if it should not be said but there is a phase of the market where the market will stabilize but should not be called stable yet.

That is a bit of an exaggeration. Yes, we are in a correction that has nearly gotten to 20% from the top, but so what?  There is no way to determine if it is going to continue or if it is going to reverse.

Now if you want to see the market going up then it's very wrong. then the market will correct the whole price and then go to initiative, then when the market should go there will be no chance of going down, but I agree with you that it's close to $40k thousand an important point and time investment, this opportunity they will miss or they may never get this opportunity.

Sure the market might not correct this week, but i would not bet on it.  Hopefully you are prepared for either direction... just in case.

What I feel is that the market is not likely to move very high in the next one to two weeks and neither is it likely to move very low.

That is called consolidation, and sure maybe you might "feel" that we are going sideways for 1-2 weeks, but what is the basis for your feelings merely beyond just feeling such?  There is a lot that could happen in a short time, especially if there is a lot of money being juggled around in the bitcoin space, and sure maybe it will just neutralize itself, but who knows.  There is still potential for explosive moves or even gradual moves up or down, and none of that would be considered to be a 1-2 week consolidation as you are proclaiming to currently "feel."  

So what are you personally doing to prepare?  Are you already prepared for any possible direction?  Or you are ONLY prepared for sideways in the coming week or two?

[Odohu]

These institutions have a growing treasury of Bitcoin in their vaults, https://bitcointreasuries.net/

In this topic, I will sound like a broken record/an insane person who will keep repeating this same advice over and over. Don't let the institutions front run you, YOU front run them. Buy the DIP, DCA, or both. You do what you're comfortable doing, but the important thing is to HODL those coins in cold-storage and never let the institutions get them from you. Probably give them a very small amount for the right price. Offer some for seven digits.

That sounds more like it... HODL the coins and "don't let the institutions get them". Such statement is testament to the fact that Bitcoin will be a great commodity in the future hence the need to take our Bitcoin accumulation seriously while guarding the asset jealousy. 

Even when we don't know with certainty what the future holds for Bitcoin, it is our expectations that it will continue to gain the approval of people and big institutions even while efforts are also made to create use cases that are in consonance with the expectations of many and the very essence of its creation.

I will be more than happy and proud to know that I'm part of a revolution that will transform lives, offer solution to real human problems and indeed make a rapid improvement to ways of doing business across the globe.

[nara1892]

What I feel is that the market is not likely to move very high in the next one to two weeks and neither is it likely to move very low.

That is called consolidation, and sure maybe you might "feel" that we are going sideways for 1-2 weeks, but what is the basis for your feelings merely beyond just feeling such?  There is a lot that could happen in a short time, especially if there is a lot of money being juggled around in the bitcoin space, and sure maybe it will just neutralize itself, but who knows.  There is still potential for explosive moves or even gradual moves up or down, and none of that would be considered to be a 1-2 week consolidation as you are proclaiming to currently "feel."  

So what are you personally doing to prepare?  Are you already prepared for any possible direction?  Or you are ONLY prepared for sideways in the coming week or two?

On the other hand I can't if I only rely on feelings because I think this has absolutely nothing to do with the hunches that humans have, and if the question is what will happen to bitcoin over the next 1 - 2 weeks? yes maybe I will say on the basis of what I see with what is happening in the market now, to be honest I am less optimistic if I have to say that in the next two weeks from now the market will run sideways, as we see that now the price is moving in the support area and what I see is that there is already confirmation of a reversal that seems to be significant enough for the price to increase again, there is a potential possibility to touch the highest resistance at the beginning of this year in the area of $ 48. 900 and it looks like I will soon prepare additional funds to take advantage of this situation, I do not force you or anyone to follow it because there is no compulsion and the possibility of risk cannot be completely avoided, but for me this opportunity seems good enough to take at least until it touches resistance which is quite possible in the next two or three weeks.

Of course the market cannot be predicted very accurately and as you say it is true that in the end we can only speculate whether the price will go up or down, but for me and according to my experience I have enough confidence that the possibility of an increase is greater than a decrease, and still I will not forget my risk management, but even so basically still I can't be too confident in the decisions I make because after all this is an investment where the possibility of risk will always lurk and reality can just slap me when it turns out that I was too careless.

[MusaPk]

I had huge expectations from the Bitcoin ETF regarding the price, but it turned out the ETF was hyped hence, it could not provide the sustainable increase in price most Bitcoiners were expecting. This now shows that nothing is really guaranteed in the Bitcoin market, all we do are just predictions. I think it is high time we moved past this ETF stories and look at the bigger picture and how to take advantage of the lower prices we are seeing now. Those using DCA should continue and not be discouraged by the drop in price when everyone expected a rise. Those buying the dips should as well continue as the market has continued to present us such opportunities for a while now.

If you are talking about Bitcoin ETF's then they are doing good in there one week journey. After six days of trading spot Bitcoin ETF's now hold 95,000 Bitcoin. Now if we come to other side of picture i.e. price of Bitcoin then its true that these ETF's didn't have any impact on price of Bitcoin.
If you remember 2017, there were ICO's everywhere and everyone rushing after new ICO's. In year or two they were replaced by IEO's, then came NFT's and now we have ETF's. To me this too shall pass away and we will see Bitcoin moving on its own in the long run.
Those who are gathering Bitcoin must continue gathering in whatever manner they are. Think about 4 to 5 years of investment in Bitcoin and then you will get to know how profitable Bitcoin is.

[Popkon6]

Currently the Bitcoin market is regularly hovering between $40K to $44K and a few days ago we saw the Bitcoin market touch $88K. Such a change in Bitcoin price makes us believe that Bitcoin will touch $50K very soon. We are predicting that Bitcoin price will touch $50K but despite this assumption there are some investors who are not daring to invest in Bitcoin yet because they expect the market to go down further. They think that when the market goes down further, they will invest in bitcoins and as they invest, the value of bitcoins will increase again. Those who are expecting this are not now but long ago they have expected that the market will come down a little from the current position of the market and they have come so far to expect that their expectations remain expectations and the investment is not done. How can people who didn't invest when Bitcoin was worth $15K invest when Bitcoin was worth $44K? 

For those who always expect a little less than the current price, I would like to say that a small price variation will not cause much problem for your long term investment so if you have an investment plan you can start investing and hold it for a long term plan.

Those who have invested in the Bitcoin DCA method since the beginning of January 2023 have benefited the most. Right now is the right time to invest because investing regularly will make the investment last longer and help accumulate money. Following the Bitcoin DCA method will generate more interest in Bitcoin investment. This is why I have been investing in Bitcoin for 14 months and am still continuing with the DCA method. I will keep my investment for 5 to 10 years so that I can accumulate a lot of money. I will grab more DCA methods to be successful.

[JayJuanGee]

These institutions have a growing treasury of Bitcoin in their vaults, https://bitcointreasuries.net/

In this topic, I will sound like a broken record/an insane person who will keep repeating this same advice over and over. Don't let the institutions front run you, YOU front run them. Buy the DIP, DCA, or both. You do what you're comfortable doing, but the important thing is to HODL those coins in cold-storage and never let the institutions get them from you. Probably give them a very small amount for the right price. Offer some for seven digits.

That sounds more like it... HODL the coins and "don't let the institutions get them". Such statement is testament to the fact that Bitcoin will be a great commodity in the future hence the need to take our Bitcoin accumulation seriously while guarding the asset jealousy.  

Even when we don't know with certainty what the future holds for Bitcoin, it is our expectations that it will continue to gain the approval of people and big institutions even while efforts are also made to create use cases that are in consonance with the expectations of many and the very essence of its creation.

I will be more than happy and proud to know that I'm part of a revolution that will transform lives, offer solution to real human problems and indeed make a rapid improvement to ways of doing business across the globe.

Of course the longer that we have been into bitcoin, the more likely we have front-run those insiders who tend to have advantages in terms of getting into various kinds of investment possibilities.

I don't know where to draw the line because surely there have been institutions and status quo rich getting into bitcoin since 2020 when Saylor really began to be vocal about the matter, but still it likely took many of them a while to get it, and some of them still are not getting it, so it likely is a matter of degree how much any of us have been able to front run bitcoin in regards to various institutions and status quo rich.

Surely we should not be selling to any of them, either.. but some of us will, and hopefully we do not have any regrets about that.

So yeah, there are some of us who are even newer to bitcoin than Michael Saylor, and maybe some say that it would have had been better to have had front-run Michael Saylor, but still there are likely going to be more Michael Saylor -like folks who still do not get bitcoin, but at some point they are going to get it, and they have a lot of wealth and they are going to figure that they need to catch up.. and surely guys like Michael Saylor make my 1-25% allocation recommendation appear like it is way too conservative, but i am sticking with it... at least for now, because so many still have to get off zero.  

By the way, I recall that Saylor's  very first purchases in connection with MSTR had taken something like 75% of the company's then treasury (cash reserves), which was something like $250 million (which you can see discussions of that here), and thereafter they kept coming up with more and more cash to put into bitcoin, so I am not sure of the exact numbers, but in recent times (like the last year or so), Saylor likes to frequently brag that his company has gone quite a bit more than 100% into bitcoin in terms of their cash reserves and then their use of various debt instruments, which surely I would not be recommending those kinds of strategies for any normal people, so maybe that's part of the reason that I believe that even going as high as 25% for a bitcoin newbie is within a range of reasonableness to get started.. and then he has to figure out from that point how to get to his allocation target or if there might be ways to tailor their whole bitcoin approach in terms of their own particulars.. which I would think that even 5% to 25% would be largely front running a lot of institutions who are still having troubles getting off zero, and many of the ones seriously entertaining the possibility of getting into bitcoin are way lower in than 5% and more likely in a 1% to 3% range, and thinking that 3% is aggressive..

and by the way, even some of the very rich would quantitatively blow the hell out of many of us normies with merely 1% allocated into bitcoin, so they might start by buying somewhere between $1 million and $10 million, and that would be their 1% BTC allocation.... so yeah, I would still say that we are still front running them, especially if we are in the 10% to 25% allocation range, and in the end we have to figure out what we are able to do, since even if some of us might choose a fairly high allocation, it may still take us a while to reach such a target...

Let's say a guy had a $100k investment portfolio that he had been building for more than 10 years, and his income is around $40k per year, so 25% investment might meant that he is able to invest around $10k per year, which is around $200 per week, and so he still might be faced with some dilemma if he should reallocate from any of his other investments or otherwise it may well take him more than 2 years to get his bitcoin up to 25% of his total investment portfolio (which would be $25k at the current size of his investment portfolio, but it may well be higher if it takes him 2 years to get there by investing into BTC), and he might consider that he might have to act more urgently in order to go beyond what his income would allow him to do.  Another issue that many folks have is that they might have some kind of tax deferred privilege such as a 401k, and they are reluctant to invest after that because they might feel that they don't have any money left over, so they might want both the employer's match, if such a thing exists and they may well also want the tax deferred status.. so whether they are going to be able to get BTC exposure through an ETF could be part of a solution for those kinds of guys, but still should not justify NOT holding actual BTC, even if they might be able to get some tax deferred exposure through their 401k.

What I feel is that the market is not likely to move very high in the next one to two weeks and neither is it likely to move very low.

That is called consolidation, and sure maybe you might "feel" that we are going sideways for 1-2 weeks, but what is the basis for your feelings merely beyond just feeling such?  There is a lot that could happen in a short time, especially if there is a lot of money being juggled around in the bitcoin space, and sure maybe it will just neutralize itself, but who knows.  There is still potential for explosive moves or even gradual moves up or down, and none of that would be considered to be a 1-2 week consolidation as you are proclaiming to currently "feel."  

So what are you personally doing to prepare?  Are you already prepared for any possible direction?  Or you are ONLY prepared for sideways in the coming week or two?

On the other hand I can't if I only rely on feelings because I think this has absolutely nothing to do with the hunches that humans have, and if the question is what will happen to bitcoin over the next 1 - 2 weeks? yes maybe I will say on the basis of what I see with what is happening in the market now, to be honest I am less optimistic if I have to say that in the next two weeks from now the market will run sideways, as we see that now the price is moving in the support area and what I see is that there is already confirmation of a reversal that seems to be significant enough for the price to increase again, there is a potential possibility to touch the highest resistance at the beginning of this year in the area of $ 48. 900 and it looks like I will soon prepare additional funds to take advantage of this situation, I do not force you or anyone to follow it because there is no compulsion and the possibility of risk cannot be completely avoided, but for me this opportunity seems good enough to take at least until it touches resistance which is quite possible in the next two or three weeks.

Of course the market cannot be predicted very accurately and as you say it is true that in the end we can only speculate whether the price will go up or down, but for me and according to my experience I have enough confidence that the possibility of an increase is greater than a decrease, and still I will not forget my risk management, but even so basically still I can't be too confident in the decisions I make because after all this is an investment where the possibility of risk will always lurk and reality can just slap me when it turns out that I was too careless.

Yesterday, I did my own prediction based on several possible timelines, and yeah, within that prediction, I am a bit of a range tard having the 200-WMA as my first number and then my predicted range being derived from the then expected 200-WMA.

[edited out]

...[edited out]....maybe you have somewhat forced me into considering how much of an ongoing upwardly draw upon the 200-week moving average should we consider the BTC spot price to have, and for now, and for the purpose of this post, I am going to ballpark my estimates, somewhat and stick with between about 20% and 60%, even though it may well be higher than 60% in the near future and it may gravitate down to 10% or less in 50, 100 and/or 133 years.

2 weeks? $30,650     or $35k to $55k

1 month? $31k   or $35k to $55k

3 months? $33k   or   $35k to $55k

6 months?   $36k  or $40k to $55k

9 months? (time for a baby)  $40k or $80k to $120k

1 Year? $45k or $80k to $120k

2 Years? $65k or $120k to $300k

4 Years? $96k or $120k to $300k

8 Years? $168k or $200k to $400k

12 Years? $350k or $400k to $600k

20 years? $1 million or $1.2 million to $1.5 million

50 years? (I am likely to be dead too.. but I still care for the purpose of this projection)  $11 million or $12 million to $14 million

100 years?  $213 million or $240 million to $280 million

133 years? $800 million or $900 million to $1.2 billion

Currently the Bitcoin market is regularly hovering between $40K to $44K and a few days ago we saw the Bitcoin market touch $88K. Such a change in Bitcoin price makes us believe that Bitcoin will touch $50K very soon. We are predicting that Bitcoin price will touch $50K but despite this assumption there are some investors who are not daring to invest in Bitcoin yet because they expect the market to go down further. They think that when the market goes down further, they will invest in bitcoins and as they invest, the value of bitcoins will increase again. Those who are expecting this are not now but long ago they have expected that the market will come down a little from the current position of the market and they have come so far to expect that their expectations remain expectations and the investment is not done. How can people who didn't invest when Bitcoin was worth $15K invest when Bitcoin was worth $44K? 

For those who always expect a little less than the current price, I would like to say that a small price variation will not cause much problem for your long term investment so if you have an investment plan you can start investing and hold it for a long term plan.

Those who have invested in the Bitcoin DCA method since the beginning of January 2023 have benefited the most.

I would suspect that those who invested either lump sum and/or DCA in 2022 would have also benefitted a lot, maybe even more than the ones who began in January 2023.

Also, even if anyone started at the top in 2021 would have also benefited as long as they continued to invest, but they might have not benefitted as much if they had used up most of their free cash at BTC price points that are higher than $35k.... yet at the same time, if someone got into BTC prior to 2021, they might have also benefitted more than those who got into bitcoin beginning in January 2023.

which may well sh9w that the longer that you have been into bitcoin the likely more that you have benefitted by having bitcoin and especially if you might have had some consistent periods of ongoingly and persistently and perhaps even aggressively buying bitcoin.  Think about those who might have been buying bitcoin in 2015, those guys likely benefitted quite a lot maybe even if they were whimpy in their BTC accumulation.. such as ONLY buying $10 per week, and maybe even benefitted more than those who got into bitcoin in January 2023...   

Right now is the right time to invest because investing regularly will make the investment last longer and help accumulate money. Following the Bitcoin DCA method will generate more interest in Bitcoin investment. This is why I have been investing in Bitcoin for 14 months and am still continuing with the DCA method. I will keep my investment for 5 to 10 years so that I can accumulate a lot of money. I will grab more DCA methods to be successful.

Sounds like you are trying to pump something.  There is an expression that the best time to get into bitcoin way yesterday, and the second best time is to get in today, which likely will continue to be the case... no guarantees, but likely to continue to be the case that any of us who might not be in bitcoin (sometimes referred to as no coiners) or some who do not have very many BTC, such as low coiners, these people likely are going to be better off to get started and figure something out in regards to starting to accumulate bitcoin and setting some accumulation targets for themselves.

[I_Anime]

Currently the Bitcoin market is regularly hovering between $40K to $44K and a few days ago we saw the Bitcoin market touch $88K. Such a change in Bitcoin price makes us believe that Bitcoin will touch $50K very soon. We are predicting that Bitcoin price will touch $50K but despite this assumption there are some investors who are not daring to invest in Bitcoin yet because they expect the market to go down further. They think that when the market goes down further, they will invest in bitcoins and as they invest, the value of bitcoins will increase again. Those who are expecting this are not now but long ago they have expected that the market will come down a little from the current position of the market and they have come so far to expect that their expectations remain expectations and the investment is not done. How can people who didn't invest when Bitcoin was worth $15K invest when Bitcoin was worth $44K? 

For those who always expect a little less than the current price, I would like to say that a small price variation will not cause much problem for your long term investment so if you have an investment plan you can start investing and hold it for a long term plan.

Those who have invested in the Bitcoin DCA method since the beginning of January 2023 have benefited the most. Right now is the right time to invest because investing regularly will make the investment last longer and help accumulate money. Following the Bitcoin DCA method will generate more interest in Bitcoin investment. This is why I have been investing in Bitcoin for 14 months and am still continuing with the DCA method. I will keep my investment for 5 to 10 years so that I can accumulate a lot of money. I will grab more DCA methods to be successful.

That the reason love the DCA method, it actually helps in the way that the chances of you missing out us pretty low. To me DCA method is best for bitcoin trying in some other coin could be too risky. Like when I went to buy a certain new coin back then I keep on buying the dip but for it to help in reducing my losses was actually increasing it. I did till I reach a certain conclusion to sell in losses after the coin even went down the more, lucky for me that I quickly cut my losses till now the coin haven't have the strength to bounce back I fall as victim due to poor research habit. If I had made a proper research I wouldn't have fall as victim.

That why is good to always take your time and makes proper research before investing in any projects. Like bitcoin now DCA method just the best, just keep buying the dip even this time around bitcoin still finding difficult to beat $44k. Bitcoin just gathering strength because I the next rise its beating the price range of 40k and hitting price range of $50k even more than. According to JayJuanGee bitcoin is a life investment so just keep the DCA strategies going.

[ginsan]

In my opinion, long-term investment in bitcoin can yield greater ROI than those who trade daily. For this reason, our mission is long term and every month we set aside our income to buy Bitcoin. Bitcoin has a limited supply so it is not surprising that currently large companies are starting to buy more BTC for them to store. So we don't back down to them, that is, we stick to our position of buying Bitcoin and holding it for the long term.

Frequently the reason why I (and maybe some other members will do it to) will show a longer term DCA approach, so if a guy comes in here bragging about how great trading is or some other waiting around strategy is blah blah blah... then we can ask him to compare his own performance to a strict DCA approach, especially if he has been in bitcoin for 6 or more years... the longer that he has been in, the less likely that he is going to be able to say that he has beaten a relatively strict and/or aggressive DCA approach... sure it is possible, but it can take a lot of time to employ various other strategies, including the waiting around strategy.. when it frequently is better to just get the fuck started, buy regularly and then maybe reassess your income versus expenses and maybe the amount of your holdings and your various funds (emergency and reserve funds) from time to time to figure out if you might need to do some tweaking, such as figuring out ways to make more money or to cut some expenses, and maybe figuring out ways to secure your coins, too.

They only speculate which has no root solution that daily trading provides more effective ROI than being a holder. But in reality, in the last 6 years, it is the holders who have managed to get bigger profits. So for that reason their perception is completely inaccurate and only comes to compare things that may not make sense to us. I even think that you are one of the early adopters who applied DCA in your investments and now you are successful so those of us who are still early certainly need to learn from what you have done in holding Bitcoin for a long period.

Apart from that, many of the Bitcoin holders regret their decision to sell their Bitcoin holdings early, another reason is that they are tempted by the near profit and at the same time they do not make any more purchases and that is a reckless action because they have dashed their hopes for make huge profits if they don't sell their bitcoin holdings early.

[Troytech]

Both of you are talking as if bitcoin is guaranteed.. and sure you may end up being right about bitcoin going up and being the best of investments, but still your way of talking seems both strange and dangerous.. even though surely people do get excited in those kind of ways about bitcoin..but still it seems misleading and maybe not evven healthy to be thinking or talking about bitcoin as if it were guaranteed.

With respect to this sir, is thinking in an overly confident way about bitcoin bad, does it have a negative impact on our investment psychology  or mindset

Past results do not guarantee future performance, and frequently we will beat up on the traders because they end up not being able to out perform or even come close to performing similar to DCA strategies that tend to take way less work and cause way less stress, but the fact that DCA has historically been a great approach does not guarantee that we will continue to win in that area.

We may not always get our desired result with our DCA method at first but on the long run we tend to be at a better advantage than traders, cause our view of bitcoin as an asset is different, we see bitcoin more as a good store of value and its potential to grow and survive through hard market conditions but traders are their to take advantage of bitcoins volatile nature to make short profits from buying and selling at the right time, which on turn might not favour them, cause one thing is guaranteed in bitcoin, you can never truly predict the market and sometimes as you said before traders who want short profit may end up holding their bitcoin for a while till the market Alligns with their predictions. But we long term holders always tend to be at an advantage even if not a 100% guarantee that we would always be favoured by the market.

I recall that when I used to project my BTC accumulation amounts, I would project out various scenarios that anticipated worse case, medium case and best case BTC price performance scenarios, so that I could already see the approximate amount of cash that I would be putting in and how many BTC that I would have under the various scenarios... and after certain passages of time, so some of the worse case scenarios might have negative returns and then there would also be 0% returns, and then there would be variations of positive returns such as 3%, 6%, 12% or 20%, so the I could see how much I would be anticipated to put in up until the date of projection, how many BTC I would get under various scenarios, what the price of the BTC would be and what the value of my stash would be, and surely in the longer run my performance ended up gravitating towards beating the most bullish of the expectations that I had outlined, even though in the short term my BTC price performance was leaning towards the worse of the expectation, which the worse performance resulted in more BTC being accumulated, so the accumulation of more BTC ended up causing the amount of BTC that I thought that I would have had accumulate go up, so we know what that ends up meaning (a couple years later) for when the BTC price finally did start to go up... so in the beginning there could end up being some advantages of the asset (BTC in this case) underperforming expectations.

What would your worst case senerio of the Market be like, is it when the price goes up or down. Cause if I am an early accumulator, my worst case senerio would be an uptrend, that's is if I've not been lump summing along side my DCA  and my best case would be when the market dips and I get to buy bitcoin at a cheaper rate and probably more. Then a medium case would when it maintains price range then my accumulation would just kind of be normal. Does this suit your senerio explanation or is it vice Vera on your end?

[bitzizzix]

trading is actually good when it comes to making short term profiting, but not everyone can just dive into trading just like that without any proper proper researching or risk management. You need time to learn more about trading before diving into it, while holding on the other hand don't actually require such skills or time. You just need to make research on the right coin to hold but bitcoin as made that easy because is the best coin, especially when it's comes to holding (long-term investment) is not as risky as other coins. I do trade but still prefer holding.

Bitcoin is the most popular among the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin is now known by people all over the world. Bitcoin is slowly gaining ground among people all over the world. We will be wrong to compare it with other coin trading. Because I know, investing in Bitcoin is completely safe.  But to invest in Bitcoin you have to wait a long time to get profit after investing. So far I have never faced any loss by investing in Bitcoin and hope not in the future. To me Bitcoin is very popular and I believe in Bitcoin that's why I invest in Bitcoin most of the time.

Bitcoin will continue to become popular and also grow as time goes by and those who don't know about it will soon find out, and those who doubt or don't believe in Bitcoin will soon believe in it. Because they became aware after seeing more and more people getting involved with Bitcoin and also more and more people getting benefits from Bitcoin.
And I don't think there's any risk with Bitcoin if you treat it for the long term, because you're just doing the best of two things. Buy when Bitcoin prices fall and hold for the long term, or you do a DCA strategy for the long term. and both will only sell when the price of Bitcoin is very high or reaches ATH and not sell when it is down, or only make small profits. So it all depends on you, because Bitcoin is the best and also profitable for those who do it for the long term.

[JayJuanGee]

Currently the Bitcoin market is regularly hovering between $40K to $44K and a few days ago we saw the Bitcoin market touch $88K. Such a change in Bitcoin price makes us believe that Bitcoin will touch $50K very soon. We are predicting that Bitcoin price will touch $50K but despite this assumption there are some investors who are not daring to invest in Bitcoin yet because they expect the market to go down further. They think that when the market goes down further, they will invest in bitcoins and as they invest, the value of bitcoins will increase again. Those who are expecting this are not now but long ago they have expected that the market will come down a little from the current position of the market and they have come so far to expect that their expectations remain expectations and the investment is not done. How can people who didn't invest when Bitcoin was worth $15K invest when Bitcoin was worth $44K? 

For those who always expect a little less than the current price, I would like to say that a small price variation will not cause much problem for your long term investment so if you have an investment plan you can start investing and hold it for a long term plan.

Those who have invested in the Bitcoin DCA method since the beginning of January 2023 have benefited the most. Right now is the right time to invest because investing regularly will make the investment last longer and help accumulate money. Following the Bitcoin DCA method will generate more interest in Bitcoin investment. This is why I have been investing in Bitcoin for 14 months and am still continuing with the DCA method. I will keep my investment for 5 to 10 years so that I can accumulate a lot of money. I will grab more DCA methods to be successful.

That the reason love the DCA method, it actually helps in the way that the chances of you missing out us pretty low. To me DCA method is best for bitcoin trying in some other coin could be too risky. Like when I went to buy a certain new coin back then I keep on buying the dip but for it to help in reducing my losses was actually increasing it. I did till I reach a certain conclusion to sell in losses after the coin even went down the more, lucky for me that I quickly cut my losses till now the coin haven't have the strength to bounce back I fall as victim due to poor research habit. If I had made a proper research I wouldn't have fall as victim.

DCA and buying the dip only really work if there is some kind of fundamental strengths in the asset that will likely cause it to continue to go up in value.. at least long enough so that you can either get your money back or even better if the asset generally has a likely upward sloping price curve that it becomes quite likely in the long run you are going to get your investment back (and plus hopefully have gains in there too).. and no asset is guaranteed to have fundamental strength.

Yet, remember the famous statement from Warren Buffet, about the need to consider whatever we are investing into in terms of being able to have some comfort that if we were to fall into a 10 year coma that we would not regret investing into such asset when we woke up out of the coma 10 years later.

Surely Buffet does not like (or understand) bitcoin, but that does not matter, since bitcoin does happen to be one of those kinds of assets that we could have pretty strong confidence to invest for 10 years .. and there hardly is any shitcoin that can meet such a standard.. none of them.. any shitcoin that you invest in is going to both rely upon bitcoin still being alive in 10 years, but also has to have strong enough fundamentals that it is also going to be alive in 10 years - including considering how transferrable its technology might be to some other shitcoin.

One of the funny things about bitcoin is that it is both open source and it is widely imitated, so ever since I had gotten into bitcoin, there have been shitcoin pumpers who have been talking about the so many ways that BTC was defective and that various shitcoins were better than bitcoin, yet at the same time, many of us should recognize and appreciation that if we are looking at a protocol (which arguably bitcoin is that), then those various some things that are supposedly better than bitcoin, they better be at least 10x better than bitcoin, and there is no shitcoin that comes even close to being 10x better than bitcoin...

while at the same time bitcoin is likely at least 10x better than gold and 10x better than the current fiat system.. even though it could take a while to play out. .and in regards to gold, I frequently suggest that bitcoin has a lot of comparable money properties as gold, yet at the same time bitcoin is in the ballpark of 1,000x better than gold so it is likely going to reach around 1,000x the market cap of gold.. even though it could take 50 to 200 years in order for such fair value balances to be achieved... so at today's prices, bitcoin is about 1/20th of the market cap of gold, so bitcoin has like around 20,000x more price appreciation in comparison to gold.. ..

and yeah, sure I am giving rough approximations that may or may not end up being correct... I don't really know, but it seems that it might not really matter very much if I am right in absolute terms, but it may well matter if there is some directional rightness with any investment choices that any of us make.. and we have to come to our own conclusions regarding the investment thesis and the strength of such investment thesis.

That why is good to always take your time and makes proper research before investing in any projects. Like bitcoin now DCA method just the best, just keep buying the dip even this time around bitcoin still finding difficult to beat $44k. Bitcoin just gathering strength because I the next rise its beating the price range of 40k and hitting price range of $50k even more than. According to JayJuanGee bitcoin is a life investment so just keep the DCA strategies going.

I agree that I said that bitcoin is likely a life long investment, yet at the same time, each of us still needs to figure out what level of balance that we are going to have into bitcoin, including that we likely have to have balances in both fiat and in bitcoin since it is quite likely that a lot of our expenses are denominated in fiat, and so in that regard, we need to figure out how aggressive that we are able to be in terms of bitcoin accumulation and then once we reach an accumulation level that is suitable and appropriate for ourselves, then at that point we still would likely need to enter into some kind of a maintenance practice that is suitable to our situation and may or may not involve further BTC accumulation.

In my opinion, long-term investment in bitcoin can yield greater ROI than those who trade daily. For this reason, our mission is long term and every month we set aside our income to buy Bitcoin. Bitcoin has a limited supply so it is not surprising that currently large companies are starting to buy more BTC for them to store. So we don't back down to them, that is, we stick to our position of buying Bitcoin and holding it for the long term.

Frequently the reason why I (and maybe some other members will do it to) will show a longer term DCA approach, so if a guy comes in here bragging about how great trading is or some other waiting around strategy is blah blah blah... then we can ask him to compare his own performance to a strict DCA approach, especially if he has been in bitcoin for 6 or more years... the longer that he has been in, the less likely that he is going to be able to say that he has beaten a relatively strict and/or aggressive DCA approach... sure it is possible, but it can take a lot of time to employ various other strategies, including the waiting around strategy.. when it frequently is better to just get the fuck started, buy regularly and then maybe reassess your income versus expenses and maybe the amount of your holdings and your various funds (emergency and reserve funds) from time to time to figure out if you might need to do some tweaking, such as figuring out ways to make more money or to cut some expenses, and maybe figuring out ways to secure your coins, too.

They only speculate which has no root solution that daily trading provides more effective ROI than being a holder. But in reality, in the last 6 years, it is the holders who have managed to get bigger profits. So for that reason their perception is completely inaccurate and only comes to compare things that may not make sense to us. I even think that you are one of the early adopters who applied DCA in your investments and now you are successful so those of us who are still early certainly need to learn from what you have done in holding Bitcoin for a long period.

Apart from that, many of the Bitcoin holders regret their decision to sell their Bitcoin holdings early, another reason is that they are tempted by the near profit and at the same time they do not make any more purchases and that is a reckless action because they have dashed their hopes for make huge profits if they don't sell their bitcoin holdings early.

I think that you highlight some decent points, especially when we get to your second paragraph and we start to consider what we might do when we might want to take some profits from time to time, and surely if we are taking profits way too early and we are taking too many profits, then we surely run the risk of either not accumulating enough BTC or not really being in a place in which we should be taking profits, and I surely don't have any problems with taking profits, and probably the way that we take profits has to be tempered and tailored to the size of our BTC stash and including whether we have plans to buy back and how that might work out because if we sell to consume then we might not have enough value in other places to be able to buy back absent a considerable BTC price drop and surely we cannot rely upon BTC price drops coming after we sold some BTC merely because we did it.

And, I did use to think that there could be ways to improve upon DCAing by incorporating buying on the way down and selling on the way up, but part of the problem is that if someone is early in his BTC accumulation journey then he can quickly end up losing focus, and if he is selling on the way up, then he could get into a conflicting situation in which he still needs to accumulate so the BTC price is getting higher than his previous sell points, and he may well have been better off to just continuing to buy, to not have sold and just stop being so petty in regards to thoughts that his average cost per BTC might be going up, since probably the most important thing is that his number of BTC (or satoshis) is continuing to go up.

Both of you are talking as if bitcoin is guaranteed.. and sure you may end up being right about bitcoin going up and being the best of investments, but still your way of talking seems both strange and dangerous.. even though surely people do get excited in those kind of ways about bitcoin..but still it seems misleading and maybe not evven healthy to be thinking or talking about bitcoin as if it were guaranteed.

With respect to this sir, is thinking in an overly confident way about bitcoin bad, does it have a negative impact on our investment psychology  or mindset

I think that we always need to keep in mind various negative price scenarios and even possibilities that bitcoin's price could spiral downwardly, even if the odds are not very high and they are likely getting smaller and smaller with the passage of time and in terms of bitcoin's ongoing Lindy effect of continuing to exist without breaking... but at the same time, we likely need to keep these ideas in mind in terms of managing our own finances and psychology and also in terms of how we talk about bitcoin with others...

So we can still fairly aggressively invest into something like bitcoin, but we should also attempt to maintain some balance in our life and including making sure that we have certain kinds of fiat cushions that will allow us to pay for our various ongoing expenses without having to dip into our bitcoin, especially we could end up going through periods that last several years in which bitcoin is either below our costs but also that it keeps going down in price... and so in those kinds of phases, we might continue to buy BTC, especially if we don't have a lot of it, but even if we have a lot of it, there can sometimes be some concerns about how much we can continue to buy, especially if the BTC price keeps going down, so in those kinds of cases it is good if we have cashflow coming from work or from other kinds of assets.

Past results do not guarantee future performance, and frequently we will beat up on the traders because they end up not being able to out perform or even come close to performing similar to DCA strategies that tend to take way less work and cause way less stress, but the fact that DCA has historically been a great approach does not guarantee that we will continue to win in that area.

We may not always get our desired result with our DCA method at first but on the long run we tend to be at a better advantage than traders, cause our view of bitcoin as an asset is different, we see bitcoin more as a good store of value and its potential to grow and survive through hard market conditions but traders are their to take advantage of bitcoins volatile nature to make short profits from buying and selling at the right time, which on turn might not favour them, cause one thing is guaranteed in bitcoin, you can never truly predict the market and sometimes as you said before traders who want short profit may end up holding their bitcoin for a while till the market Alligns with their predictions. But we long term holders always tend to be at an advantage even if not a 100% guarantee that we would always be favoured by the market.

As long as bitcoin continues to go up in price, we have greater chances to out perform traders, so one of the problems that traders have had, especially with bitcoin is that over the last 12 years or more, they have sometimes been on the wrong side of some upward price move that ends up either never correcting or that it corrects in such a way that is not easy to trade, and so they would have likely been way better off to just buy and not be fucking around so much.

However, if the asset is really volatile and largely not going up very much in value or even going down in value, then the traders have way better chances to outperform the HODLers, and so we cannot really be sure about bitcoin's future performance, even though we may well continue to try to bank on some of the theories that bitcoin has a lot of ongoing  upward price potential that includes various underlying assessments of why it has such sound money, digital scarcity and censorship resistance strengths that contribute towards the three strongest of underlying price theories in regards to bitcoin that the traders might not be able to time as well as they believe that they are able to accomplish.. which is the 1) stock to flow, 2) the four-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and network effects (as outlined by Trace Mayer).

It is not guaranteed that the BTC HODLer / persistent and consistent DCA accumulator is going to outperform the trader, even though historically it has been true, yet persistent, consistent and even aggressive BTC accumulation is likely a pretty solid way forward especially for anyone who is either a no coiner or a low coiner, and how much BTC they need to stack is surely a bit of a question that is based on their assessment of at least their 9 factors.

I recall that when I used to project my BTC accumulation amounts, I would project out various scenarios that anticipated worse case, medium case and best case BTC price performance scenarios, so that I could already see the approximate amount of cash that I would be putting in and how many BTC that I would have under the various scenarios... and after certain passages of time, so some of the worse case scenarios might have negative returns and then there would also be 0% returns, and then there would be variations of positive returns such as 3%, 6%, 12% or 20%, so the I could see how much I would be anticipated to put in up until the date of projection, how many BTC I would get under various scenarios, what the price of the BTC would be and what the value of my stash would be, and surely in the longer run my performance ended up gravitating towards beating the most bullish of the expectations that I had outlined, even though in the short term my BTC price performance was leaning towards the worse of the expectation, which the worse performance resulted in more BTC being accumulated, so the accumulation of more BTC ended up causing the amount of BTC that I thought that I would have had accumulate go up, so we know what that ends up meaning (a couple years later) for when the BTC price finally did start to go up... so in the beginning there could end up being some advantages of the asset (BTC in this case) underperforming expectations.

What would your worst case senerio of the Market be like, is it when the price goes up or down.

Don't you consider that best or worse case scenarios are going to be largely tailored to the individual because if you are a newbie to bitcoin and even in a stage in which you might be mostly accumulating bitcoin for 5-10 years or longer, then you likely would be more advantaged for the BTC price to go down or to not go up so fast until you have at least had some time to build your stash, but if you largely established your stash then you should already be in a position that you are advantaged way more by the BTC price going up rather than down.

You likely have to plan around your own situation in terms of where you are holding your wealth, and I would imagine that the longer that any of us are investing, we are going to end up creating techniques to account for the assets that we hold, and I believe that part of the reason that I had transitioned some of my own thinking about BTC in mid-to-late 2015-ish was because I had largely already concluded that I was likely going to continue to hold onto bitcoin for a long time (perhaps for life) and that I also already realized that bitcoin was going to continue to be volatile, so I had to structure some kind of a system in which I could deal with that likely inevitable ongoing volatility, even though I was going to error on the side of mostly HODLing bitcoin... and so I had largely concluded that I had accumulated enough BTC as of late 2014, but then I continued to accumulate BTC through 2015, so I had largely concluded that the BTC that I accumulated between late 2014 and late 2015 was mostly excessive, which helped to guide me in my formulation of what I was going to do and how I was going to handle my own BTC holdings as compared with other assets that I held.

So the creation of worse, best and medium scenarios might be framed in one kind of way when we are in our earlier or mid BTC accumulation modes, as compared if we might be in more of a maintenance mode and maybe if we might end up gravitating more towards liquidation, if we might consider starting to just live off our BTC... but even accumulation, maintenance and liquidation can have various kinds of mixed kinds of behaviors of figuring out points to buy or sell BTC.

I doubt that I should be needing to elaborate a lot more in the creation of worse, best and medium scenarios, because there are a lot of individuality including even considering various timelines if you are younger than you have a lot of various timelines, and if you are older you might not have as many timeline possibilities to outline.

Cause if I am an early accumulator, my worst case senerio would be an uptrend, that's is if I've not been lump summing along side my DCA  and my best case would be when the market dips and I get to buy bitcoin at a cheaper rate and probably more. Then a medium case would when it maintains price range then my accumulation would just kind of be normal. Does this suit your senerio explanation or is it vice Vera on your end?

I think that your understanding sounds largely correct, and so you can consider accumulating 1-2 years, and then maybe 4-6 years and maybe even 10 years or more, and so if you project out further your worse, best and medium scenarios are going to change, and they are going to be changing as you go along, so yeah, it would work out pretty good if the BTC price either goes down or does not go up very much while you are accumulating and then mostly goes up later down the road, after you have built some decent stash.

But there could be scenarios that you build and build and then you expect the price to do up but it keeps going down or stays flat or really fails to go up. and then maybe some other bad things happen to bitcoin (and/or even in your life) where you are faced with having to figure out if you have to liquidate some or all of your BTC at a time that is not of your own choosing... so you could attempt to prepare for those kinds of scenarios too.. and how much preparation to make in any scenario should be somewhat proportional to how likely it is to happen, so if there is some 1-5% odds of some kind of Armageddon scenarios playing out, then you probably should not be spending more than 1-5% of psychology or resources to prepare for such a scenario, but you also probably should not be putting zero preparation into such scenarios either... as time goes on we can see that some scenarios become more likely or less likely, so we might have some scenarios that are low odds that end up playing out, and there could be some regionality to the scenarios too. so we should be careful in regards to making sure that we are prepared for various things, including how difficult it can be to be your own bank.

Let's say that you spend 10 years accumulating bitcoin and through that whole time you invest between $10 and $1k per week into bitcoin, and maybe you end up accumulating 1.5 bitcoin in 10 years for an average cost of around $100k per BTC, and perhaps in early 2034, bitcoin prices are bouncing around anywhere between $400k and $600k per BTC, and so maybe you hold 90% of your BTC and you have the other 10% in various 3rd party services... so maybe your BTC are worth somewhere around $800k (in today's dollars), so it would be pretty irresponsible if you were to have your private keys, your back up and your Trezor (or whatever might be the hardware devices that you are using) in your house and it burns down, so as your wealth increases then you likely have to take more and more measures to make sure that you are protecting yourself from worse case scenarios, even if such worse case scenarios exist and you might not have had thought of all of them in the beginning, but they become more important the longer that you are accumulating BTC and presumptively holding your own keys..

[ancafe]

The main purpose of DCA is not to minimize the risk of investment, but DCA is used to get a lower average price instead of a lump sum. DCA is always recommended so that you can anticipate a price down after you buy, but you don't need to be too strict about this strategy because basically the price also has the potential to rise higher after you buy. Buying regularly and buying with DCA are different. I mean, regular buying can be done at any price, whereas buying DCA takes advantage of another dip to buy once you see a correction.

Minimizing investment risk is not by taking strategic steps with DCA but rather by how someone can survive and not do something outside the market's decision on price values and/or try to determine losses based on prices that tend to tilt downwards. DCA can be done at any time to take advantage of gradual and regular purchases, someone who has implemented this strategy will definitely be much more comfortable setting a small and stable budget for their purchasing period.

In essence, we will only try to see opportunities based on purchasing ability and regular purchases using large capital can also be carried out during the falling price phase. Whatever the strategy, we will only see how much benefit value there is because what is unfortunate is that people have money but don't know how to approach and accumulate purchases appropriately.

[Negotiation]

That is called consolidation, and sure maybe you might "feel" that we are going sideways for 1-2 weeks, but what is the basis for your feelings merely beyond just feeling such?  There is a lot that could happen in a short time, especially if there is a lot of money being juggled around in the bitcoin space, and sure maybe it will just neutralize itself, but who knows.  There is still potential for explosive moves or even gradual moves up or down, and none of that would be considered to be a 1-2 week consolidation as you are proclaiming to currently "feel."  

So what are you personally doing to prepare?  Are you already prepared for any possible direction?  Or you are ONLY prepared for sideways in the coming week or two?

The problems with Bitcoin are that even if we want to, we can't make any accurate predictions, I'm not 100% sure that Bitcoin won't go down further to correct. However, looking at all the past behavior, it can be seen that Bitcoin is most likely to go to the upside. Yes, when a lot of money will be invested together at any moment in the market, one must be prepared for any new situation.

I agree with you that, it can go into more serious actions than time(I don't know how much correction %). uptrend is continuing...