So we can safely assume that if we are taking 200-WMA is reference then most time its below Bitcoin price. With 200-WMA one can easily figure out how much room he has for withdrawal.
If the BTC spot price starts getting close to the 200-WMA, then that will likely mean that the 200-WMA is not going to go up as fast and those might be periods to sell fewer BTC (if we are talking about sustainable withdrawal) and maybe even times to buy more BTC if we are in our BTC accumulation stages, and yeah it has tended to take a whole cycle before the BTC price gets back down to the 200-WMA.. and so right now we are more than 2x higher than the 200-WMA, but in 2021 we were 5-6x higher in early 2021 and around 3x higher in late 2021, and in late 2017 the BTC price had gotten around 14x higher than the 200-WMA. You can see the numbers through
the sustainable withdrawal tool and putting in various dates.
So it's best to accumulate during the phase when spot price getting closer to 200-WMA. Since we are going for three ways i.e. DCA, Buy the Dip and lump sum.
Of course, when we are in our earliest stages of BTC accumulation, we try to consider how to maximize our strategies, yet at the same time, if we are brand new to investing in bitcoin, then we just have to establish a position, and try to get to our target level as quickly as possible.... so once we have established a bit more of a stash we might want to tailor our DCA buys a bit more, yet at the same time, we run the potential error of holding back too much because we are waiting for dips to buy rather than buying regularly.
So yes, you are better off buying more BTC if the BTC price is at, near or below the 200-WMA, but if you don't have enough BTC, then you likely are not advantaged by trying to figure out those kinds of matters but just to invest as aggressively as you can until you start to begin to feel that you have enough BTC or more than enough BTC... and during periods that you feel that you have more than enough BTC, then you can start to be more strategic in terms of waiting with some of your buys, but if you wait too much, then you might end up screwing things up and holding too much dollars when the BTC price is shooting up.
In the last 6-9 months, we had a lot of folks waiting for lower BTC prices, and they kind of got fucked and they might have been better just to keep buying as their paycheck comes in... or however they are authorizing their BTC purchases.
If someone wants to go for aggressive accumulation then it's the best time.
You can always be aggressive in your BTC buys, especially if you are still new to bitcoin and still building your BTC stack. I frequently say that you should be as aggressive as you are able to be, and in your earliest stages of accumulating BTC, you have to figure out getting your BTC position... but yeah, between June 2022 and October 2023, we spent quite a bit of time at historical BTC lows that were near or below the 200WMA for a lot of that time (and the BTC price got as low as 35% below the 200WMA) , and the BTC price had not been in such relatively low territories previously... so they were really great times to buy, but it was also great times to buy when the BTC price was within 20% of the 200-WMA and before it dropped below the 200WMA, so it is quite possible that a lot of guys used a lot of their money buying BTC prior to it even dropping below the 200-WMA, so they run out of money and all that they have left is the DCA amounts that are coming in.. and these guys are not making mistakes by being aggressive prior to the BTC price going below the 200-WMA because no one would have been speculating that the BTC price was going to go so low and to stay there for so long. But it did.
With
the sustainable withdrawal tool, one can easily figure out how much he can withdraw per month. It's easy you dont have to figure out yourself, the tool do the job.
You still have to figure it out, and you have to figure out how to use the tool to your advantage. I surely am not recommending guys start to use the tool when they have not stacked enough sats and when they have not over accumulated BTC. So guys have to come to a kind of over accumulation status when they start to use either the basic aspects of the selling portion of the tool and especially if they are going to use the selling in advance portions of the tool... A guy could end up selling way too many BTC too soon if he does not even have enough BTC in the first place.
I remember Dec 19, 2017 since it was my early days when I came to know about Bitcoin (not investing at that time). You figure it out right, spot price on that particular day was 14x higher then 200-WMA.
Yeah, but if you did not have any BTC, then how are you going to know to wait before you buy?
Even if you started buying
$100 per week of BTC on December 19, 2017, by now you would have had invested $32,700 and you would have accumulated 2.66 BTC (currently worth about $186k), so you would be right around 5.7x in profits... so there is no reason to be greedy or to be trying to second guess these kinds of matters. The main thing is to get the fuck started and to establish a position, and surely a guy with 2.66 BTC is in a good place right now, but he still might feel that he does not quite have enough and he might feel that he needs to continue to invest at $100 per week or maybe even to be more aggressive in his weekly DCA amount.
Perhaps the guy would like to get up to 4 BTC in the next 10 years, and so he figures he might have to increase his DCA from $100 per week to $200 per week in order to have a good chance of reaching his target of having 4 BTC in 10 years, when he already has 2.66, so he only needs to accumulate another 1.33 BTC to meet his target, and yeah he would not be locked in that target, but it would not be a bad one or an unreasonable one if he had already spent around 6.5 years accumulating BTC at around $100 per week, and he might feel that he has enough confidence to raise his DCA amount to $200 per week.
And, yeah, maybe he cannot get up to 4 BTC in the next 10 years, even if he increases his DCA amount to $200 per week, yet he is still likely going to be in a better position by continuing to aggressively DCA into bitcoin rather than not.. .no guarantees of course, but I see no reason why such a guy should be trying to be strategic, especially if he continues to have a reasonable goal, and even if he does not reach 4 BTC and he might only reach 3.5 BTC or some other amount, but with the passage of time, it likely takes fewer and fewer BTC to get to fuck you status (or whatever the guy's goals might be).. he might not even be trying to get to fuck you status, but instead just trying to make his life the best that he can in terms of potentially improving his possible options in the next 10 years.
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I think you should stick with investing in Bitcoin, whether short-term or long-term. Given this investment, you can be safe with your capital,
which is guaranteed by Bitcoin. There are no guarantees, not even in bitcoin.
Bitcoin may well be the best investment available, but it is still not guaranteed.
Example let's say I want to start investing right now in bitcoin and I have a monthly income of 1000$(it's assumption figures) and I decide that I want to invest about 300$ from that amount into a weekly DCA investment which should be about 75$ weekly invested in bitcoin and then I also had some cash from my savings that I also wanted to use to invest in bitcoin maybe to give myself some kind of head start and the money was about 3000$ and I decide to use 1500$ to invest right away, that is what a lump sum buying would mean.
Yes.. that is an accurate description. The extra $1,500 that is used to buy BTC right away would be considered lump sum investing and/or perhaps even front loading your investment at the current price that may or may not be going up, but the front loading/lump sum investment is a kind of preparation for up and a kind of insurance for up, just in case the BTC price does not come down, you are prepared for up by employing the lump sum. And, so yeah, from your $3k, you can choose any amount of that and call it lump summing, especially if it is higher than your regular DCA amount.. and perhaps if it is higher than the whole amount that you are going to put in for the month.. It is not exactly clear how much it would need to be in order to consider it a lump sum, but under that facts that you describe it seems to be a lump sum.. and maybe even if it was as low as $500 it could still be a lump sum, even though in that hypothetical, you are already planning to DCA $300 per month (at $75 per week).
A guy who has no bitcoin is not prepared for up. A guy who is a low coiner might feel himself without enough bitcoin, but he might already be investing as much as his finances and psychology permit him to invest, so in that case he is not a low coiner who is fighting the idea of bitcoin, and so there could be low coiners who really are not very passionate about bitcoin that they might be like a no coiner who is against bitcoin, so those guys would not invest, but it is difficult to call a low coiner as being against bitcoin, since the fact that he has some coins means that he is not likely completely against bitcoin,
even if he might be skeptical of it and lacking passion in terms of the level of his investment into it.IMO some low coiner might not be thinking that they are so far behind and even last the motivation to invest in bitcoin or just bought some bitcoin for the bull and with such psychology and attitude towards bitcoin you would notice that they don't value bitcoin or lack any personal conviction about it, ever since you started making comments about a convenient level of bitcoin one should have in a long term of investing
(fuck you status), I think everyone should start planning a long term investment with bitcoin one that involves a long term accumulation plan.
I consider entry-level fuck you status merely to represent more of a financial status and not necessarily an attitude status.. and so in that regard, entry-level fuck you status would be when you are financially in a strong enough place that your bitcoin is able to support all of your expenses in a sustainable way and without dipping into principle.
So in traditional assets a guy may well need to accumulate something like 25x his annual expenses/income in order to be able to draw from those traditional assets/investment at a rate of about 4% per year. So $2 million in assets would generate $80k per year and $6,666 per month.
It is starting to seem pretty likely that a guy could merely reach around 10 years of expenses and income in bitcoin if he measures the value of his bitcoin from the 200-WMA and then draw upon his bitcoin at about 10% per year in order to be at fuck you status, so in order to achieve that same $6,666 per month in bitcoin then he would merely have to have $800k in bitcoin measured at the 200-WMA (which right now would be
24.6 BTC).
Just curious I was thinking if the rest of the 1500$ can go into as emergency funds cause I saw no plans for having such set up, its also very important to ensure we don't dip our hands into our holdings especially at such a beginning stage, do I felt its also a good plan to keep that in Check too, or if not all going in cause we also need to be prepared for dip then splitting then into reserves and emergency funds to help create dome kind of cushion of extra cash as an early investor.
It seems somewhere in my discussion, I had mentioned that I was presuming that the guy already had his shit together in terms of his emergency fund already being in place, but also, there were a couple of different scenarios. One scenario was the guy who already had been investing a year or two and then he gets an extra $3k that he hast to decide what to do, and the other scenario is the brand new investor, of course the guy who had already been investing into bitcoin for a year or two, then he should have had already established good practices including an emergency fund and also learning how to manage his reserves and his float.
Yet, it may be that I might not have had been clear, but I was presuming that the emergency fund was already adequately funded, and so when we are investing, our ongoing working state should be that our emergency fund is already established and we never need to access it because we also have reserves too that we would access prior to accessing any emergency fund and prior to accessing our investment (bitcoin in this case), and yeah if the guy has $3k that is available and he invests $1,500 right away then yeah, he would need to consider where to put the other $1,500 and you are right that if he does not have an emergency fund, then it would go there first, but then if he did not have $1,500 for an emergency fund, then maybe he should not be putting $1,500 into bitcoin right away either...
because he no longer has $3k available, but instead he has $1,500 available, so it change the calculation regarding how much to invest right away versus how much to hold back for buying on dips or DCA.. so of course, there trade offs, balancings and priorities, and if the guy does not have various aspects of his finances in order then he is going to have worse psychology and he is also going to have fewer options if he does not have a handle on those kinds of things when he all of a sudden gets a $3k bonus, he has to use some of that to get his shit together before he can even allocate any of it towards investing into bitcoin.. since once he invests into bitcoin, that money should be considered as no longer available for 4-10 years or longer.
