Buy the DIP, and HODL!

[Rabata]

You are actually right on this, if you look at the historical price of Bitcoin over the years, it has practically gotten better with age, it has behaved like a fine 🍷 wine, so it's even more likely that the more you hold unto your Bitcoin investment, the more you make more money out of it, so to me, sometimes I feel sorry for those that sold now, even though they sold at a profit, because the actual price of Bitcoin is no where near it current price like in 5 years time from now,  and I also believe that due to it limited supply, it's a certainty that at some point, it price will skyrocket to a figure that even we, it supporter  never expected.

The market is filled with uncertainty that is to say it also has risk assessment though there is a lower risk when it comes to Bitcoin investment.

Bitcoin is considered digital gold for long-term investment. Other cryptocurrencies have limited global recognition but Bitcoin is the only coin with global acceptance. Bitcoin trading volume nearly half of all crypto markets. Due to this high liquidity it is definitely a less risky investment. Moreover, anyone can manipulate the market of various shitcoins, there is no such opportunity in the case of Bitcoin. Since Bitcoin is decentralized, it cannot be controlled by the government or anyone in power. An altcoin will be worthless if held long-term but a bitcoin will be a permanent asset or will be considered as the digital gold in the long-term.

[Obim34]

They can find time to start investing by learning about it. Without doing that, they won't find the right time. Even if they are beginners in investing, they can find moments when investing.

They have to pay attention to how much money they can use to start investing. Otherwise, they will have difficulty persisting in investing. They must also be able to anticipate the possibility of losing money investing in Bitcoin, especially if the price of Bitcoin declines.

But if they don't panic and can be patient, they will see an increase in profits when the price of Bitcoin increases again. Risk exists, so we must learn how to minimize it.

Money management in investing is certainly very necessary, especially if we have a tight budget, so to consider this we have to manage it as best as possible. This is indeed the most important part in starting an investment because if you cannot manage your finances as well as possible then the investment we make could stop midway.

Bitcoin has indeed become a new foundation in choices for long-term investment, so it is not surprising that both teenagers and those who are old choose Bitcoin as an asset for their old age. Yes, profits will come if you are satisfied with Bitcoin ownership and at that time if you are satisfied you can reap the rewards by cashing out into fiat and buying what you have been dreaming of such as a luxury house or luxury car.

As an investor in bitcoin first of all you should consider if you can endure and be patient if some events occur, if you are not an investor that has other ways you earn, you have to be very reserved in spending to avoid being tempted to think of withdrawing your asset, that's why it is advisable for investors curtail there expenses if they are the type that spends much, emergency fund should be available always so that it can be used to handle some expenses when the need arises.

Most importantly every bitcoin investor should know that Bitcoin is an investment that is invented for long term purpose, so as an investor you have position your mind in the long-term benefit because you may not be able to achieve your goals within a short period of time, choose bitcoin, choose buying and forgetting for a long term holding.

Many has moved the motion of getting an alternate source of income, in other to be much more financially buoyant, in regards to when the first source of income does not meets our needs or important things we want. This system is not rigged, "how you dress your bed same way you will lay on it", if a person doesn't see the need of keeping aside funds that would serve for emergency then he/she will be left to face the consequences as per having no choice than selling off part of his investment to cover up the expenses. Emergencies are unpredictable so we need to be on the safer side by doing what is required.

You are actually right on this, if you look at the historical price of Bitcoin over the years, it has practically gotten better with age, it has behaved like a fine 🍷 wine, so it's even more likely that the more you hold unto your Bitcoin investment, the more you make more money out of it, so to me, sometimes I feel sorry for those that sold now, even though they sold at a profit, because the actual price of Bitcoin is no where near it current price like in 5 years time from now,  and I also believe that due to it limited supply, it's a certainty that at some point, it price will skyrocket to a figure that even we, it supporter  never expected.

At some point I feel the need for us to be mindful of our choice of words, in order  for us to give an information that will not be misleading, I believe that the only thing will could do is to speculate about the ups and down movement of Bitcoin and there is no certainty as to this regards just as you have stated earlier.

The market is filled with uncertainty that is to say it also has risk assessment though there is a lower risk when it comes to Bitcoin investment.

I'm trying to figure out what you think is wrong about what he said, maybe you can do justice by making the lines bold since his mix of words are not doing good to the readers. From what he said, his on the point that over the years Bitcoin has increased significantly reaching a new price mark and if we would love to continue on those profits we should be able to absorb the mindset of holding for a long time even during the ups and down in the market.

[laijsica]

Plus plebs like me who are just starting during this cycle should be with an attitude that any "life-changing" amounts of money can't be earned in merely one cycle. For the 90% of us participating in Bitcoin Land, it will probably take three bull cycles, or probably more. Plus to those people who are willing to risk it by participating in some shitcoinery, do it where the market is denominated in Bitcoin. Do it in Bitcon DeFi, it might be one of the biggest narratives during this cycle.

it's not just about staying too long that gives you good profit out of your investment, it is actually accumulating as much as you can within a stipulated time frame and then selling when you've reached your investment.

When it comes to bitcoin investment, those who hold bitcoin for the long term are always in good profit because bitcoin price will always go high. For instance, imagine both of us accumulating 0.05 BTC each with $1500 when Bitcoin was at $30k. When the bitcoin price rises to $50k you decide to sell your bitcoin and start a business with the profit. And I continued to hold my bitcoin until now, when the price is at $70k. If I decide to sell my bitcoin, I will make a better profit than you.

You are actually right on this, if you look at the historical price of Bitcoin over the years, it has practically gotten better with age, it has behaved like a fine 🍷 wine, so it's even more likely that the more you hold unto your Bitcoin investment, the more you make more money out of it, so to me, sometimes I feel sorry for those that sold now, even though they sold at a profit, because the actual price of Bitcoin is no where near it current price like in 5 years time from now,  and I also believe that due to it limited supply, it's a certainty that at some point, it price will skyrocket to a figure that even we, it supporter  never expected.

There is no doubt that the historical example of Bitcoin's origin is a logical consequence of the future.Governments of various countries are busy printing fiat money to deal with the country's liquidity crisis which could be more dire for a country's future.In this situation, inflation takes a more pronounced form. Inflation lowers the cost of living.In this case, due to the decentralization of Bitcoin, there is no opportunity to intervene in its price control. In addition, when the adequacy of Bitcoin becomes limited and the investors want to buy more the price may not be in your hands. And one of the basic elements in the economy is that the demand for something increases as the price increases.And time will tell where the limited supply of Bitcoin will take the price in the future.

[Marvelockg]

Most importantly every bitcoin investor should know that Bitcoin is an investment that is invented for long term purpose, so as an investor you have position your mind in the long-term benefit because you may not be able to achieve your goals within a short period of time, choose bitcoin, choose buying and forgetting for a long term holding.

maybe you should understand that Bitcoin was not created initially as an asset for investment or profit making purpose but was rather created  to allow a peer to peer electronic cash system, the intention was to create a currency that would allow people to transact directly without the need for banks or governments regulations but along the line, considering the volatile nature of Bitcoin we now understand that by buying and holding on to our Bitcoin, we can actually have profits and good returns in the long run which makes it an investible asset.

I understand that as long as we are considering buying Bitcoin for the sake of the profit we intend getting out of it, long term holding is always going to be preferable to any other options like short term investment but let's get the fact right that Bitcoin was not invented for only the long term bases. There are people that don't buy Bitcoin because they necessarily want to make any huge profit out of thier holdings, for some, it might just be a perfect option to save their fiat such that inflation doesn't affect it and even though they are able to leave it for a year or two, it might work well for them. But for us here that are interested in making good profit out of our investment, there is no two ways about it and I totally agree with you that long term investment is the best way to go if we want yo make profit out of it.

[Troytech]

It's good we make it plain that the reason why you're accumulating or investing in Bitcoin will not be the same reason why the next person is doing his and this will go a long way in shaping how he goes about with his investment and how long he desires to hold and remain in profit before selling his holding.

Again.. you can do whatever the fuck you like, but you don't really seem to understand bitcoin very well if you think that it would be prudent, smart and/or practical to plan to sell large amounts of your BTC whether it is for consumption purposes or for investing into other kinds of assets/currencies.

Of course, there are ways to maintain and to manage your BTC holdings that could involve some selling, but planning to sell large amounts of it seem to be failing/refusing to appreciate what bitcoin is.

Yeah that's actually very clarifying, however I wonder why someone could even think of selling a large amount of his Bitcoin holding even if he has other intentions of using the funds on, however even if his intentions is to venture into other assets shouldn't be a reason for someone to sell a large amount of his Bitcoin because regardless of the needs or intentions to venture into other investment what should be mostly considered is the potential and how real it is, so considering all this things Bitcoin should always be the major investment for everyone because unlike every other investment Bitcoin has shown that is the best investment that can put a smile on someone's face in the future only if they hold.

Alot of individual most time would sell some certain amount of their Bitcoin ( expecially when you haven't reach your Accumulation goal or having enough Bitcoin). With the mindset of replacing it back. Lol I laugh , most people don't know that the chances of them buying at that Same low price is damn low. You can't expect bitcoin to dip for sake inorder for you  to replace that amount you withdrew from investment at that same price you first brought it . Nahhh things doesn't work that way. Like those who bought their Bitcoin when the price was $10k and they later sold there coin around the price range of $15k , with the mindset that when bitcoin dip again to $9k or $10k they would buy , but now look at Bitcoin is around $70k now . So you can see that when you start taken profit from your investment when you haven't gotten far with it . You're only reducing the potential of yielding some thing good in a long run . That why one should not of removing or withdrawing from his investment ( Bitcoin) , especially those that are low coiner or haven't gotten  any where with Their accumulation. Should rather focus on how to add more Bitcoin to his portfolio.

I think it's quite a different topic that Jay is talking about here, it's not really about those that sell their bitcoin so ealry and missout on the possibility of bitcoin compounding in value but rather those that has already reached let's say a considerable amount of bitcoin in their stash and has been accumulating for up to 10-20 years and now want to sell of all their bitcoin for one purpose or another instead of understanding the fact that they could actually start getting some dividends from their mature bitcoin investment by applying some withdrawal methods that would be applied in a way that they won't be selling to much of their bitcoin and would also be maintaining its value in a certain way as he explained in his Jay's sustainable withdrawal method thread.

IMO I think the idea is not even about reaching or accumulating so much bitcoin just to sell again but to have your value stored in bitcoin as an asset just like having properties or lands or maybe shares from a company, and like other asset that are able to give dividends or return of investment, bitcoin also has the ability to do so, all we need to do is find out how we can actually achieve this.

[Miles2006]

It's good we make it plain that the reason why you're accumulating or investing in Bitcoin will not be the same reason why the next person is doing his and this will go a long way in shaping how he goes about with his investment and how long he desires to hold and remain in profit before selling his holding.

Again.. you can do whatever the fuck you like, but you don't really seem to understand bitcoin very well if you think that it would be prudent, smart and/or practical to plan to sell large amounts of your BTC whether it is for consumption purposes or for investing into other kinds of assets/currencies.

Of course, there are ways to maintain and to manage your BTC holdings that could involve some selling, but planning to sell large amounts of it seem to be failing/refusing to appreciate what bitcoin is.

Yeah that's actually very clarifying, however I wonder why someone could even think of selling a large amount of his Bitcoin holding even if he has other intentions of using the funds on, however even if his intentions is to venture into other assets shouldn't be a reason for someone to sell a large amount of his Bitcoin because regardless of the needs or intentions to venture into other investment what should be mostly considered is the potential and how real it is, so considering all this things Bitcoin should always be the major investment for everyone because unlike every other investment Bitcoin has shown that is the best investment that can put a smile on someone's face in the future only if they hold.

Selling or taking out profit is something different from investing and both have a different strategy, buy and hold is different unlike the system when people buy with the aim of extracting huge profit so fast, this is not even appropriate from my opinion. Diversification should be done when you have a balanced bitcoin accumulation in essence you've reached your satisfied target before extracting for other investment choice. From my observation no one can fully invest in bitcoin 100% and it's not advisable so before considering diversification an investor should have a basic knowledge first.

[teamsherry]

Most importantly every bitcoin investor should know that Bitcoin is an investment that is invented for long term purpose, so as an investor you have position your mind in the long-term benefit because you may not be able to achieve your goals within a short period of time, choose bitcoin, choose buying and forgetting for a long term holding.

maybe you should understand that Bitcoin was not created initially as an asset for investment or profit making purpose but was rather created  to allow a peer to peer electronic cash system, the intention was to create a currency that would allow people to transact directly without the need for banks or governments regulations but along the line, considering the volatile nature of Bitcoin we now understand that by buying and holding on to our Bitcoin, we can actually have profits and good returns in the long run which makes it an investible asset.

I understand that as long as we are considering buying Bitcoin for the sake of the profit we intend getting out of it, long term holding is always going to be preferable to any other options like short term investment but let's get the fact right that Bitcoin was not invented for only the long term bases. There are people that don't buy Bitcoin because they necessarily want to make any huge profit out of thier holdings, for some, it might just be a perfect option to save their fiat such that inflation doesn't affect it and even though they are able to leave it for a year or two, it might work well for them. But for us here that are interested in making good profit out of our investment, there is no two ways about it and I totally agree with you that long term investment is the best way to go if we want yo make profit out of it.

Yeah bitcoin wasn't really created as an investment opportunity but as it is I'll rather say this is the stage of adoption of bitcoin that we are in now, people have to get attracted to something new through a part of it and at this point investing in bitcoin as an asset, bitcoin also offers a lot more than just profits, they are a lot of other empowerment that it offers.

- As a good means to store value: fait is continually beign printed everyday and this means that it has an infinite supply and therefore due to the law of scarcity fait is flawed cause it is always readily available and the value would continue to decrease, but bitcoin on the other hand has a fixed supply so you should worry less about inflation of Value,

For instance if you save your money in fait like having 30$ in the bank and you keep for 2 years when you come to your money , it won't be worth as much as it was when you kept it cause inflation would have eaten a lot of its value up since more money has been printed since youblast kept your money, but if you kept 30$ in Bitcoin, not only would it appreciate in value but it would also retain that 30$ value that it once had, so 30$ in Bitcoin is better than 30$ in fait, so this is also one of the other empowerment that it offers.

You can add privacy to that list and many others.

[Winterfrost]

You are actually right on this, if you look at the historical price of Bitcoin over the years, it has practically gotten better with age, it has behaved like a fine 🍷 wine, so it's even more likely that the more you hold unto your Bitcoin investment, the more you make more money out of it, so to me, sometimes I feel sorry for those that sold now, even though they sold at a profit, because the actual price of Bitcoin is no where near it current price like in 5 years time from now,  and I also believe that due to it limited supply, it's a certainty that at some point, it price will skyrocket to a figure that even we, it supporter  never expected.

At some point I feel the need for us to be mindful of our choice of words, in order  for us to give an information that will not be misleading, I believe that the only thing will could do is to speculate about the ups and down movement of Bitcoin and there is no certainty as to this regards just as you have stated earlier.

The market is filled with uncertainty that is to say it also has risk assessment though there is a lower risk when it comes to Bitcoin investment.

I don't see anything misleading about someone that invest now with the hope that in the next five years he should necessarily be in profit. If you've looked at past record as a bases that guide your future prediction
and you go on to do future speculation based on the curent level of adoption and what might possibly take place in the future, their is every assurance that you will be in profit if you buy from this moment. The rate of adoption is obviously increasingly high and the demand and number of  investors are increasing on a regular bases which will in turn contribute to the increase in the price of Bitcoin. I know that it's never a 100% guarantee that you must be profitable if you invest for a period of five years but you can confidently take this from me as someone that believes that Bitcoin isn't a ponzi scheme to ever do a trial and error kind of investment  with, and I am confidently telling you that if you continue accumulating from now using whatever strategy that works well for you, you will be in profit in a next five years.

Have you imagined that you started accumulating your Bitcoin in the last five years? Would you have been in a loss or profit by now? I know sometimes we want to practice all the theories we've read in business books regarding counting the possible risk involved in a business or investment opportunity before ever venturing into it and it's totally okay to know that their are risk involved in every investment but it should never stand as an hindrance to stoping you from investing or put you in a possible to always expect losses along your investment period.

[ginsan]

When it comes to bitcoin investment, those who hold bitcoin for the long term are always in good profit because bitcoin price will always go high. For instance, imagine both of us accumulating 0.05 BTC each with $1500 when Bitcoin was at $30k. When the bitcoin price rises to $50k you decide to sell your bitcoin and start a business with the profit. And I continued to hold my bitcoin until now, when the price is at $70k. If I decide to sell my bitcoin, I will make a better profit than you. 

That is a reflection of the time that most people waste because when prices go down they panic and the lucky ones are those who buy when prices go down. We have seen BTC performance so strong and of course every downturn that occurred in the past is a happy memory for those who bought at that time. Looking ahead, we must stick to our plans, namely continuing to buy without fear, now is not the right time to wait because every delay is just a regret in the end.

Bitcoin halving is getting closer, that is, in the future Bitcoin will be increasingly scarce because miners will get smaller rewards. So you can imagine that the circulation of Bitcoin will become smaller and slowly Bitcoin will become increasingly scarce. It's not our target of $100k but that's many people's dream of $100k. I can even refer to the fact that if bitcoin becomes increasingly scarce then the price of bitcoin could reach $500k someday. Be patient and continue to hold your Bitcoin holdings.

[I_Anime]

Have you imagined that you started accumulating your Bitcoin in the last five years? Would you have been in a loss or profit by now? I know sometimes we want to practice all the theories we've read in business books regarding counting the possible risk involved in a business or investment opportunity before ever venturing into it and it's totally okay to know that their are risk involved in every investment but it should never stand as an hindrance to stoping you from investing or put you in a possible to always expect losses along your investment period

  well said, there's no investment that there's no risk attached, there's a reason why risk tolerance is number 6 of the    9 principle individual factors . So yeah there are risk in Bitcoin investment, but it can be easily minimise with proper plannings and all that , like engaging in long-term investment in Bitcoin as also help to reduce the risk . Because that chancea of one selling his long-term holding in losses is pretty low comparing to those that normally base in short-term profits alone. That why most time is best to encourage someone to engage in long-term holding than short-terms. Just as you said , imagine those that started their accumulation five years back imagine the profit they have Made (depending on the number coins they have accumulated so far though). But you can see that chances of them selling in loss is damn low, because they embark on long-term holding .

[jossiel]

Just make sure that when you DCA, you're not spending the money that you're going to use for your food or utilities.

That's the reason why it is important to consider as well on what kind of money you'll use as you DCA. But some investors goes to the tough path and they're spending money that's allotted into something important but they are sacrificing that expenses to buy Bitcoin.

But don't do that, it's why we're all advising everyone to have some other source of income and only invest what you can afford to lose.

exactly, anyone that's doing such is just executing poor planning. The best way to Investing is not having good cashflow alone , but how you plan and handle things. By using the DCA strategy to accumulate according to your cashflow, set aside an emergency funds for covering expenses. And also have a reserved funds to use whenever one have the opportunity to buy using this other accumulating strategy to purchase. There's another important things , which is how consistent you are with your DCAing and to keep on learning more things on how to secure a good investment.

You really have to set and plan out your DCA if you're going to do that because if you don't, big tendency of you dumping the Bitcoin that you've just bought is high.

And that's no common sense for you when you do that as you're just going to throw up your money again to it. Why it should be important for you to plan it?

To avoid scenarios like this that you have no option but to sell the purchased Bitcoin of yours. But if you have done it and you have spare money in doing it, you'll not be forced to sell it when you are in need.

[FinePoine0]

Just make sure that when you DCA, you're not spending the money that you're going to use for your food or utilities.

That's the reason why it is important to consider as well on what kind of money you'll use as you DCA. But some investors goes to the tough path and they're spending money that's allotted into something important but they are sacrificing that expenses to buy Bitcoin.

But don't do that, it's why we're all advising everyone to have some other source of income and only invest what you can afford to lose.

exactly, anyone that's doing such is just executing poor planning. The best way to Investing is not having good cashflow alone , but how you plan and handle things. By using the DCA strategy to accumulate according to your cashflow, set aside an emergency funds for covering expenses. And also have a reserved funds to use whenever one have the opportunity to buy using this other accumulating strategy to purchase. There's another important things , which is how consistent you are with your DCAing and to keep on learning more things on how to secure a good investment.

You really have to set and plan out your DCA if you're going to do that because if you don't, big tendency of you dumping the Bitcoin that you've just bought is high.

And that's no common sense for you when you do that as you're just going to throw up your money again to it. Why it should be important for you to plan it?

To avoid scenarios like this that you have no option but to sell the purchased Bitcoin of yours. But if you have done it and you have spare money in doing it, you'll not be forced to sell it when you are in need.

If so then you can definitely divide your money into two to three parts. And can you keep some of your money as an emergency fund, so that you don't have to sell your investment in case of any danger? That's why there should be enough knowledge so that we can use the emergency fund anytime, DCA investment is so important that you only realize when you start saving money. Note that you should never consider selling a hold if you have future financial benefits from the amount you invest.

[ultrloa]

Since we are always buying through DCA, it will be difficult to always determine our entry point. For me the holding period is the main priority in this case. It will be foolishness for me that doesn't have up to one bitcoin to compare my profitability with someone who have up to one bitcoin or more. But if someone who has up to a bitcoin sell of early and I continue holding my bitcoin for many years, there is every possibility that my profit will get to his level when he sold of or more, because we don't know the amount that bitcoin will get to in the future.

Actually an investor who is slowly coming up using DCA method to accumulate Bitcoin shouldn't compare themselves or trying to compete with those that has already started investing on Bitcoin for long because always trying to get an amount of investment other investors have could lead to aggressive investment were as you will put everything you have just to remain on the competitive trends, although there is no harm trying to accumulate as many Bitcoin as you can but trying to compete or reach out to other people amount of investment is not wise because it could lead to aggressive investment which could sometimes cause by fear of losing out, so perhaps in as much as DCA method takes a while before getting a reasonable amount of Bitcoin but is actually the best and you would be surprised with the amount of Bitcoin you will realize from ten years and above.

They should not compare any individual success or activity done since each people have their own timeline on when they starting up their journey to hodl. If they see those people doing good on what they are currently doing then everything is fine on their end and we can just look after them then try to get inspired to get more better result to. But they must not forget that they must do better for theirselves since no one can help them to decide what strategy to use,how much they are willing to spend and how long the timeline they set before they decide on when to execute everything according to their plans.

Bitcoin is just there and for sure it will stay for long time since many people already know its existence and provably for more years we can see a lot of success including more price rise especially that we know there's only limited supply for it then there's a lot more people coming to grab some because they see how good bitcoin as an asset or investment.

[JayJuanGee]

Since we are always buying through DCA, it will be difficult to always determine our entry point. For me the holding period is the main priority in this case. It will be foolishness for me that doesn't have up to one bitcoin to compare my profitability with someone who have up to one bitcoin or more. But if someone who has up to a bitcoin sell of early and I continue holding my bitcoin for many years, there is every possibility that my profit will get to his level when he sold of or more, because we don't know the amount that bitcoin will get to in the future.

Actually an investor who is slowly coming up using DCA method to accumulate Bitcoin shouldn't compare themselves or trying to compete with those that has already started investing on Bitcoin for long because always trying to get an amount of investment other investors have could lead to aggressive investment were as you will put everything you have just to remain on the competitive trends, although there is no harm trying to accumulate as many Bitcoin as you can but trying to compete or reach out to other people amount of investment is not wise because it could lead to aggressive investment which could sometimes cause by fear of losing out, so perhaps in as much as DCA method takes a while before getting a reasonable amount of Bitcoin but is actually the best and you would be surprised with the amount of Bitcoin you will realize from ten years and above.

This is a good point.

A person might want to be as aggressive as he can be within his own means to acquire as many bitcoin as he is able to do, and there is nothing wrong with that as long as he does not cause something like the wealth (or the earlier BTC adoption) of someone else to cloud his own visions regarding some of his own limits.

There is no problem with some healthy levels of competition, since it is quite likely that many of us engage in a certain level of competition, yet there are also some needs for measuring our own levels of aggressiveness in reasonable kinds of ways in order that we do not end up overdoing it or even contributing to our own levels of becoming too emotional in the ways that we are investing and/or protecting ourselves..  

Let's say for example, there are two guys of very similar economic status and maybe in their early 30s, and maybe they earn around $40k per year and they are able to save and/or invest around $4k (10%) to $10k (25%) per year - depending on how aggressive they are or how much they had been building up their investment portfolios.. so if each of them had been investing and/saving for 10 years, there could be quite a bit of variance in both the size of their investment portfolio and also what is contained in their investment portfolio, and after 10 years investing,

Guy1-  Earlier bitcoin investor with 10% investment -  might have around $40k invested - but he discovered bitcoin 7 years ago.. so he has around $22k invested into traditional investments  like stocks ($8k in his first 2 years and then $14k in his last 7 years).. and around $18k invested into bitcoin at $50 per week that resulted in about 2 BTC.  If we assume around a 50% increase in the value of his traditional investment, his total investment portfolio is worth about $161k ($21k stocks + $140k BTC)

Guy2- Later Bitcoin investor with 25% invested -  might have $100k invested but only invested into traditional investments of stocks, and just discovered BTC... so the total value of his investment portfolio might be around $150k.. so this guy surely could catch up to the earlier guy by starting to invest aggressively into bitcoin at around $200 per week (or even lump sump moving some of his earlier investment into BTC), yet it does not seem as practical to lump sum invest with all of it, so he has to find some  kind of a balance and then start to pursue bitcoin with $200 per week and he will likely end up passing up the guy who is ONLY investing 10% of his income.. and perhaps only 5% into bitcoin.

On the other hand, if there were a third guy (guy3) with the same demographics as the other two and a 15% per year investment of his salary which would be $6k per year and a total of $60k invested over 10 years -  but who had taken both a more aggressive bitcoin stance and a more aggressive overall investment stance than the 10% guy but not as aggressive as the 25% guy, yet who had also discovered bitcoin around 7 years ago and who had been investing into bitcoin for the last 7 years at $100 per week, and who continues to invest at $100 per week.. so his total portfolio has $23,500 invested into stocks and then $36,500 invested into bitcoin with 4 BTC accumulated  So his total portfolio would be $315k ($35k stocks and $280k BTC)

The second guy who is investing 25% per year for the past 10 years is the most aggressive of the three investors, yet his total portfolio has performed the worst over the past 10 years, and since in this scenario, he had just discovered bitcoin, he surely could catch up and pass the first guy in a fairly short period of time, yet if those two guys were to maintain their same pace, it could take him 15-20 years to catch up to the third guy since the third guys in not overly aggressive, but he is maintaining a pretty good pace of $100 per week, and he might never catch up to the third guy unless he increases his income and/or cuts his expensive, but he might not have as much room to work with since he is already aggressively investing 25% of his income at $200 per week-ish, so it is not always easy to either increase your income or decrease your expenses in order to be able to invest more, so in some sense, the second guy just has to continue to invest at his own pace and there may be some points in which he ends up catching up to the third guy. but surely no guarantees and probably no reason to really overly stress out about.

.....because most users here are planning to hold for 4-10 years even more than . So with such , you can have enough time to accumulate some good quantities in your portfolio.

I think that many of us are pushing the idea that every time that a long term investor adds new capital to his investment, then that new capital should be considered in terms of having a 4-10 year or longer timeline before it is going to be needed (or wanted), so surely if a guy is investing for 4-10 years or longer, by the time he gets into his 6th year of investing, he is going to have some of his earlier investments that have been brewing (or sitting for 6 years or so) and then his later investment amounts would have not had as much time to brew  (or to compound or to grow in value).. ... of course, the longer that he is investing the more options that begin to develop regarding how he might change the way that he builds and/or maintains his investment, so it would not really start to make sense to both buy and sell at the same time, but if he has enough time building, he might get to a point in which he thinks that he is able to somewhat attempt to play the trends.. but not necessarily structuring any sales in a way that he expects to be able to buy back.. so if he does not quite have enough (or he mis-measures how much he has versus how much he thinks he has), then he could end up running into a situation in which he sold too much too soon and/or he failed to continue to maintain enough focus on ongoing BTC accumulation.

You are actually right on this, if you look at the historical price of Bitcoin over the years, it has practically gotten better with age, it has behaved like a fine 🍷 wine, so it's even more likely that the more you hold unto your Bitcoin investment, the more you make more money out of it, so to me, sometimes I feel sorry for those that sold now, even though they sold at a profit, because the actual price of Bitcoin is no where near it current price like in 5 years time from now,  and I also believe that due to it limited supply, it's a certainty that at some point, it price will skyrocket to a figure that even we, it supporter  never expected.

At some point I feel the need for us to be mindful of our choice of words, in order  for us to give an information that will not be misleading, I believe that the only thing will could do is to speculate about the ups and down movement of Bitcoin and there is no certainty as to this regards just as you have stated earlier.

The market is filled with uncertainty that is to say it also has risk assessment though there is a lower risk when it comes to Bitcoin investment.

Surely there is no certainty.. yet we might need to consider what we believe to be possibilities.

No one responded to my post from a few days ago in this very same thread when I attempted to assign some probabilities to where I speculated that the BTC prices might be 10 years from now... It was how I was thinking about the topic at the time of the posting, and sure the probabilities might change with the passage of time (and the happening of events), too.

 

So maybe the odds that you come to calculate might look something like the below that in 10 years BTC will:

1) Go to zero (or less than $10) (and not recover)  - less than 1%

2) Go to a price that is between $10 and $1k (and not recover) -  less than 5%

3) Go to a price that is between $1k and $10k (and not recover) -  less than 8%

4) Go to a price that is between $10k and $35k (and not recover) -  less than 9%

5) Go to a price that is between $35k and below the current price ($66k-ish) (and not recover) -  less than 10%

6) Go to a price that is between the current price ($66k-ish) and $150k (and get stuck there) -  around 10%

7) Go to a price that is between $150k and $500k (and get stuck there) -  around 12.5%

8 ) Go to a price that is between $500k and $1m (and get stuck there) -  around 12.5%

9) Go to a price that is between $1m and $2m (and get stuck there) -  around 12.5%

10) Go to a price that is between $2m and $10m (and get stuck there) -  around 12.5%

11) Go to a price that is higher $10m -  around 7%

[edited out]

   Just as you said , imagine those that started their accumulation five years back imagine the profit they have Made (depending on the number coins they have accumulated so far though). But you can see that chances of them selling in loss is damn low, because they embark on long-term holding

We do not have to imagine, even though we could describe a certain kind of hypothetical of a guy who might have invested $100 per week for the past 5 years, and consider that their older bitcoin are likely more in profits than the more recent bitcoin, even though right now when BTC is bouncing around within 5% of the ATH territory, it is pretty much every single person is going to be in profits, and the longer they have been accumulating, the more profits that they would have put themselves in.. so long as they had not screwed around with trading and/or leverage (which may or may not have helped themselves in comparison to a more strict ongoing, consistent and persistent DCA strategy.

$100 per week of BTC accumulation over the past 5 years would have had resulted in $26,100 invested and 1.5578 BTC accumulated (currently worth about $109k - about 4.2x returns), and maybe not enough to feel comfortable to be at entry level fuck you status, but surely enough to cause a person to feel pretty good about his progress and the options that the BTC stash is providing.

Another example would be a guy who might have started investing 10 years ago at the same amount of $100 per week.  He would have had invested $52k into BTC and he would have accumulated nearly 44.4 BTC (which currently would be worth about $3.1 million - about 60x returns).. so there can can be quite a bit of value that comes from allowing additional time to pass - even though it seems quite unlikely that BTC is going to be returning such great returns...

None of us should be complaining even if BTC were to at least keep up with inflation (the debasement of the dollar and other fiats), and any kind of extra return would be a bonus... yet surely we are going to be more inspired to aggressively invest into bitcoin when we consider that it has good chances of beating rather than merely matching the performance of other possible places to put our value to save/invest.

Just make sure that when you DCA, you're not spending the money that you're going to use for your food or utilities.

That's the reason why it is important to consider as well on what kind of money you'll use as you DCA. But some investors goes to the tough path and they're spending money that's allotted into something important but they are sacrificing that expenses to buy Bitcoin.

But don't do that, it's why we're all advising everyone to have some other source of income and only invest what you can afford to lose.

exactly, anyone that's doing such is just executing poor planning. The best way to Investing is not having good cashflow alone , but how you plan and handle things. By using the DCA strategy to accumulate according to your cashflow, set aside an emergency funds for covering expenses. And also have a reserved funds to use whenever one have the opportunity to buy using this other accumulating strategy to purchase. There's another important things , which is how consistent you are with your DCAing and to keep on learning more things on how to secure a good investment.

You really have to set and plan out your DCA if you're going to do that because if you don't, big tendency of you dumping the Bitcoin that you've just bought is high.

Edit After I had written my whole response, @jossiel, I come to realize that I had misunderstood your points... so I went back through my response to attempt to fix it a bit.. .. but when I saw that it still might contain some of my earlier misunderstanding.. I decided to change my response.

I agree that a guy might believe that he has everything figured out, and then he ends up getting frustrated because he ends up buying at top.. and he had not really adequately planned for the correction, even though he thought that he was sufficiently prepared.

part of the trick is to get out of the trader mindset and get into the investor mindset.. which means to prepare yourself to be holding your investment into BTC for 4-10 years or longer no matter what the price does.. .. so if you are overly worried about the price, in regards to whether you are in profits or in the negative, then you likely have not prepared either the correct mindset of the correct approach that will prepare yourself to deal with the likely inevitable volatility of BTC prices... so preparing financially is figuring out position size but also having your financial matters in order that includes your maintaining emergency funds, reserves and a float.. emergency fund should be at least 3 months, but if you have complicated things going on in your life that either potentially involves expenses that could come up or fluctuations and/or drying up of your cashflow, then you need emergency funds that cover longer periods of time.

Also if you invest into bitcoin for 1-3 years and then the price goes shooting up and you cannot control your emotions because you see how much it had become worth and you just cannot resist but to tap into it, then likely you have to figure out some way to deal with that.. since what is it that you are wanting to do with the money?  Are you wanting to consume? or you want to diversify into other investments? or what is it that causes you to get worked up about it?  It could be that even though you are still in your BTC accumulation stage that you might have to take some off the table and to invest into other things because you cannot handle how much it had become, even though you should also realize that the amount of BTC that you might never be able to get back the amount of BTC that you end up shaving off.. so that should be factored into your consideration regarding how much BTC you feel that you need to shave off, and you should be attempting to do these things without emotion.. so that you had somewhat preplanned them rather than acting out too rashly merely based on sudden changes in the BTC price.

And that's no common sense for you when you do that as you're just going to throw up your money again to it. Why it should be important for you to plan it?

I agree it is good to attempt to think through the various scenarios and try to be prepared, even for extreme scenarios.

You don't like the idea of planning?  

Yes it can be difficult to plan for everything, yet we can set out some scenarios so that we are somewhat prepared to mostly know what we are going to do, and so if we end up doing something, we are already in the ballpark of what we had already planned, even if we might not have had planned the specific situation that ends up playing out.  We are likely not going to be able to completely know how certain matters will play out, but we should have a certain level of preparation for a variety of scenarios and also for some scenarios that go beyond our expectations.

To avoid scenarios like this that you have no option but to sell the purchased Bitcoin of yours.

It is true that if the BTC price goes shooting up, guys end up not really being as prepared as they thought that they were.

That is not true.  

You could plan that you are not selling any BTC if the price goes anywhere between $80k and $180k in the next 1 to 9 months.. and then maybe you have some plans that if it goes faster than that, then you might end up selling some.. even though you already might know that you are in accumulation phase and if they BTC price keeps going up then you have to make sure that you do not sell too much too soon.. so there are risks for any guys who are selling some of their BTC and they already know that they do not have enough BTC.

But if you have done it and you have spare money in doing it, you'll not be forced to sell it when you are in need.

That is getting back to the idea of having your finances otherwise in order.. which is also having certain amounts of funds..

You may well be in another position jossiel than a member who is brand new to investing into bitcoin.. especially since you have been registered on the forum for more 8 years and 3 days.. happy anniversary.. so yeah if you been in bitcoin longer than you might have more luxuries in terms of how many BTC you have already accumulated.

Let's say for example that a guy has only been into bitcoin for a year and a half (looking at I_Anime), his income is about $36k per year, $3k per month, and he is investing about 15% into bitcoin which is $100 per week which is $5,200 per year and $7,800 for 18 months), he had continued to maintain a 3 month emergency fund and also 3 months of reserve funds, so if he had only been investing for 18 months, his investment into bitcoin would be merely around 0.282 BTC - which currently is close to $20k in value and slightly more than 6 months of his income (if we are looking at BTC spot price) .. so he should feel pretty good about all of that, and he has a steady income and is investing around 15% of his income into BTC, but then if the BTC price were to double to $140k, then all of a sudden his BTC holdings are more than 1 year of income.. and so if BTC prices double again to $380k, then he would have 2-3 years of income in his BTC holdings.. so then he might start to think that his investment is getting ahead of his levels of preparations, and he might have to take some BTC off the table in order to either bolster his emergency or reserve funds, or perhaps he starts to feel some needs to have some of his value in other assets/investments.. and so there is nothing wrong with having some of those kinds of considerations in advance and even plans to take some off of the table, even if the guy might have concluded that he does not have enough BTC.

I actually suspect that I_Anime does not even have that good of finances in place,   ..  but I don't know, yet these would be the kinds of considerations that a newer guy into bitcoin would have to attempt to take into account and try to plan around so that he can control the amount that he sells or does not sell and to consider if there might be some price points in which it does not make sense for him to continue to DCA.. and either just to hold those funds or maybe put them into other assets.. which are all trade offs, in which some guys will just continue to accumulate BTC for more than a whole cycle before getting into any ideas of selling any BTC or even discontinuing their DCA... but part of the problem is reality.. and the reality may well be that the job of any newbie is not really paying very high wages as compared to the appreciation of their BTC (at least the appreciation that may not end up being sustainable)

[Agbamoni]

Yeah bitcoin wasn't really created as an investment opportunity but as it is I'll rather say this is the stage of adoption of bitcoin that we are in now, people have to get attracted to something new through a part of it and at this point investing in bitcoin as an asset, bitcoin also offers a lot more than just profits, they are a lot of other empowerment that it offers.

- As a good means to store value: fait is continually beign printed everyday and this means that it has an infinite supply and therefore due to the law of scarcity fait is flawed cause it is always readily available and the value would continue to decrease, but bitcoin on the other hand has a fixed supply so you should worry less about inflation of Value,

For instance if you save your money in fait like having 30$ in the bank and you keep for 2 years when you come to your money , it won't be worth as much as it was when you kept it cause inflation would have eaten a lot of its value up since more money has been printed since youblast kept your money, but if you kept 30$ in Bitcoin, not only would it appreciate in value but it would also retain that 30$ value that it once had, so 30$ in Bitcoin is better than 30$ in fait, so this is also one of the other empowerment that it offers.

You can add privacy to that list and many others.

This is one of the main reasons why most investor who understand this nature of bitcoin choses to invest in bitcoin rather than stocks and forex. Let me put it this way that bitcoin has no one to trust, it's given you the authority to trust only yourself as an investor through its ledger storing them in the wallet. What more can I say? The source code is transparent and cannot be manipulated building trust and transparency in the system. None of these features of bitcoin exist in the stocks, forex and in the fiat monetary system generally. 

Another reason is that bitcoin has been the best performing asset since its existence. In terms of value, it has been the most appreciating assets. Its value can be compared to that of gold and silver, i would say 5o times better than gold and 100 times better than silver. There are plenty of other reason why people would prefer bitcoin to any other assets. Of which those reasons are best known to them. But generally, security is what we investors value most in bitcoin. No digital technology has the same level of security that bitcoins have.

[Negotiation]

I actually suspect that I_Anime does not even have that good of finances in place,   ..  but I don't know, yet these would be the kinds of considerations that a newer guy into bitcoin would have to attempt to take into account and try to plan around so that he can control the amount that he sells or does not sell and to consider if there might be some price points in which it does not make sense for him to continue to DCA.. and either just to hold those funds or maybe put them into other assets.. which are all trade offs, in which some guys will just continue to accumulate BTC for more than a whole cycle before getting into any ideas of selling any BTC or even discontinuing their DCA... but part of the problem is reality.. and the reality may well be that the job of any newbie is not really paying very high wages as compared to the appreciation of their BTC (at least the appreciation that may not end up being sustainable)

While most people now make money for a living, there are few people who can earn some extra income beyond a job or fixed income. What you suggest is certainly valid, but most people by now think that cash is the only thing that matters to them. That's basically why they convert from all other currencies or from bitcoins to cash. Because of this they cannot implement any kind of plan, because the cash withdrawals are spent on life or livelihood.

[I_Anime]

I actually suspect that I_Anime does not even have that good of finances in place,   ..  but I don't know, yet these would be the kinds of considerations that a newer guy into bitcoin would have to attempt to take into account and try to plan around so that he can control the amount that he sells or does not sell and to consider if there might be some price points in which it does not make sense for him to continue to DCA.. and either just to hold those funds or maybe put them into other assets.. which are all trade offs, in which some guys will just continue to accumulate BTC for more than a whole cycle before getting into any ideas of selling any BTC or even discontinuing their DCA... but part of the problem is reality.. and the reality may well be that the job of any newbie is not really paying very high wages as compared to the appreciation of their BTC (at least the appreciation that may not end up being sustainable)

I pretty much understand your point sir @JayJuanGee and  you're definitely right,  like I keep on saying I haven't  gotten far with my accummulation so I'm far from thinking of withdrawing now , my aim now is to keep accumulating and hodl till I hit my accummulation goal. Like I said back then I focus mainly on trading which eventually was a damn waste of time(It may be helpful to others but to me it wasn't) , so back then I wasn't as aggressive I am now due to knowing about the thread and the knowledge I have acquired from it concerning Bitcoin investment. Well to be honest most of us here are not able to be more aggressive the way we wanna in our Accumulation due to our earnings not being able to keep up .but all I know is that as my earnings or sources multiply as time goes so as my accumulating rate would also multiply . Just as you said we are still in the early stage, though have missed alot of opportunity in investing in bitcoin but this time around am not planning to take any chances, I will keep accumulating going even though it take me a whole cycle to hit my goal it still worth it. And have alot to still learn from you sir JJG and other users here while I keep  Accumulating .

[Stablexcoin]

So maybe the odds that you come to calculate might look something like the below that in 10 years BTC will:

1) Go to zero (or less than $10) (and not recover)  - less than 1%

2) Go to a price that is between $10 and $1k (and not recover) -  less than 5%

3) Go to a price that is between $1k and $10k (and not recover) -  less than 8%

4) Go to a price that is between $10k and $35k (and not recover) -  less than 9%

5) Go to a price that is between $35k and below the current price ($66k-ish) (and not recover) -  less than 10%

6) Go to a price that is between the current price ($66k-ish) and $150k (and get stuck there) -  around 10%

7) Go to a price that is between $150k and $500k (and get stuck there) -  around 12.5%

8 ) Go to a price that is between $500k and $1m (and get stuck there) -  around 12.5%

9) Go to a price that is between $1m and $2m (and get stuck there) -  around 12.5%

10) Go to a price that is between $2m and $10m (and get stuck there) -  around 12.5%

11) Go to a price that is higher $10m -  around 7%

Thumbs up for this Jay. However, i believe its a complex task to predict the price movement of bitcoin. But you have made efforts to share your thoughts on what concerns you.

You have assigned a probability of <1% to Bitcoin reaching zero which I fully agree with you. It is difficult to believe that Bitcoin will ever go to zero someday irrespective of the factors that may affect the price (regulation, adoption, technical development, and competition). Prediction number 9 interests me the most. This is because the probability of hitting $1m and $2 is above the 12.5% margin. I support any investor with a whole of Bitcoin and will be much happier. My only consideration is that the price won't get stuck there. I don't know your reasons for thinking that the price would get stuck at certain price ranges, which is not typical market behavior for Bitcoin. The market tends to fluctuate so sustained plateaus are unlikely.

Here's how confident I am predicting that the price of Bitcoin will be in the next 10 years.

Low-end prediction: $500k - $800k - 70%
High end: $1M - $2M - 30%

Considering that the rate of inflation may be greater 10 years from now, I doubt that bitcoin would want to remain at the bottom when it's a hedge against inflation.

[laijsica]

I actually suspect that I_Anime does not even have that good of finances in place,   ..  but I don't know, yet these would be the kinds of considerations that a newer guy into bitcoin would have to attempt to take into account and try to plan around so that he can control the amount that he sells or does not sell and to consider if there might be some price points in which it does not make sense for him to continue to DCA.. and either just to hold those funds or maybe put them into other assets.. which are all trade offs, in which some guys will just continue to accumulate BTC for more than a whole cycle before getting into any ideas of selling any BTC or even discontinuing their DCA... but part of the problem is reality.. and the reality may well be that the job of any newbie is not really paying very high wages as compared to the appreciation of their BTC (at least the appreciation that may not end up being sustainable)

While most people now make money for a living, there are few people who can earn some extra income beyond a job or fixed income. What you suggest is certainly valid, but most people by now think that cash is the only thing that matters to them. That's basically why they convert from all other currencies or from bitcoins to cash. Because of this they cannot implement any kind of plan, because the cash withdrawals are spent on life or livelihood.

For most this is the job, you work for your living but it may not be enough.And anything other than sufficient income is out of the question.In this case, small income people can move towards DCA strategies but on a small scale.Start with a small portion of your weekly or monthly income, such as $100. And if you start, you can save it without any hindrance in addition to household expenses. If you can keep DCAing for at least a year then you are successful.This is how people's success stories begin. And bitcoin DCAing a deposit is going to be great for you in future.

[JayJuanGee]

Another reason is that bitcoin has been the best performing asset since its existence. In terms of value, it has been the most appreciating assets. Its value can be compared to that of gold and silver, i would say 5o times better than gold and 100 times better than silver.

Bitcoin is probably around 1,000x better than gold, even though it could take 50-200 years before he market reflect that - unless bitcoin ends up breaking before then.. .. or something better comes to supersede bitcoin in order to take away its current place as a superior/strongest monetary asset.

I actually suspect that I_Anime does not even have that good of finances in place,   ..  but I don't know, yet these would be the kinds of considerations that a newer guy into bitcoin would have to attempt to take into account and try to plan around so that he can control the amount that he sells or does not sell and to consider if there might be some price points in which it does not make sense for him to continue to DCA.. and either just to hold those funds or maybe put them into other assets.. which are all trade offs, in which some guys will just continue to accumulate BTC for more than a whole cycle before getting into any ideas of selling any BTC or even discontinuing their DCA... but part of the problem is reality.. and the reality may well be that the job of any newbie is not really paying very high wages as compared to the appreciation of their BTC (at least the appreciation that may not end up being sustainable)

I pretty much understand your point sir @JayJuanGee

I wasn't trying to specifically point out anything related to your actual finances, but instead giving an example of a wage and an ongoing aggressive BTC accumulation that could have had happened in the last 18 months at a rate of about 15% of someone's income... and yeah, some guys might not been able to accumulate BTC that aggressively because they may well have to put other aspects of their finances in place and also figuring outways to either increase their income or to cut their expenses in order to potentially achieve that level of aggressiveness... and that was part of the reason that I suggested that I anticipated that your situation was likely not even as good as the one that I was describing in terms of being able to get to a point of having 6 months worth of your income in BTC after ONLY being in bitcoin for less than 18 months.

and  you're definitely right,  like I keep on saying I haven't  gotten far with my accummulation so I'm far from thinking of withdrawing now ,

I was not even really suggesting any kind of withdrawal even under those kinds of circumstances that were described in which the BTC price could double from here and then double again, and then those kinds of dynamics should be considered.. even though for sure a guy with even 2-3 years of value in BTC does not really seem to be in a position of withdrawing, but he may well be in a position in which he might been some needs to reallocate an to diversify out, whether it is bolstering his emergency fund and/or his float or diversifying into some other assets - and I surely am not referring to shitcoins or even locking up large amounts of value.. and yeah, there are guys who are in places in which it is nearly impossible to invest into anything besides bitcoin and shitcoins, so those are choices that guys would be faced with . and anyone getting into gambling shitcoins better be limiting his exposure to less than 10% of his BTC holdings.. .. .. but anyhow, since we have guys from all over the world, there could be guys who have access to investing into index funds or something, and even if they have 2-3 years of income in BTC, they still might be in a good place to merely bolster their emergency funds and reserves a bit.. and that could be enough..

and, yeah, if you are not quite even close to that and even if your BTC holdings might ONLY be 3 months of your annual income, then it well could take a 10x increase in BTC prices, and then 3 months turns into 30 months, so those are the kinds of scenarios, even guys with modest BTC holdings should be taking into account in terms of what is possible in the next 6 to 18 months - even though maybe the odds are not exactly that high to end up getting a 10x from here so quickly.. but you never know with BTC.. In March 2020, we dipped down to $3,850 and then maybe we could say that we bounced back to $10k-ish by late in the year (2020), yet within the next 12 months we were 6x and 7x higher than those $10k prices... ..

And, surely some folks might not consider the kind of runs from 2017 to be possible or likely, but those 2 years resulted in more than a 78x price appreciation from the 2015 bottom to the 2017 top.. .. but then maybe we might say that they measuring point might NOT start until around January 2017 when we reached $1k, and so by the end of 2017, we had accomplished a 20x.. so the BIG numbers are possible and they should be considered in terms of where your BTC holdings might be and if you might need to consider some adjustments based on those kinds of possible levels of exuberance and outrageousness.. and sure it may be the case that you just keep accumulating and hold through it. and make tiny adjustments along the way and just let the BTC price do whatever it is going to do while you just continue to regularly stack sats.. whether the BTC price is high or low..

and I am not even opposed to that.. especially for both a guy that is still going through his first whole cycle and a guy who also might not have a high discretionary/disposable income, it may well be the best of strategies just to continue to pace yourself through the whole matter however it ends up playing out.. which surely guys who were new to bitcoin and went through either the 2017 price run or the 2021 price run, they would have still ended up fine by just continuing to buy the whole time.. . which was kind of the case for me, except I started at the top of the 2013 run, so I started while the price was going down rather than while it was going up.. so the dynamics are a bit different in terms of what might be reasonable and how to play it.. even though in the long run DCA does still end up working for both, especially for any persons with relatively low levels of disposable/discretionary income.

my aim now is to keep accumulating and hodl till I hit my accummulation goal. Like I said back then I focus mainly on trading which eventually was a damn waste of time, so back then I wasn't as aggressive I am now due to knowing about the thread and the knowledge I have acquired from it concerning Bitcoin investment.

Trading does seem to be worse.. and yeah, if you are able to figure out some consistent system to focus on BTC accumulation, then you likely will be good.. .. .. even though like jossiel mentioned there can be quite a few psychological challenges to go through real BIG price swings, yet we cannot even really know how much of a price correction is going to happen or how long it is going to last until after it has happened, so there are a lot of guys who end up selling too much too soon and they are never really able to figure out when to buy back. when they likely would have been better to just keep buying regularly because at least that way they can see the number of their sats increasing, even though the value per sat might be fluctuating a lot along the way, too.

Well to be honest most of us here are not able to be more aggressive the way we wanna in our Accumulation due to our earnings not being able to keep up

The meaning of aggressiveness does not have to do with the amount that you are putting in.. because even if you are ONLY putting in $10 per week, you might be being as aggressive as you are able to be.. so I am not really talking about amounts when I refer to aggressiveness.. but there are ways that you can be aggressive by just making sure that you have all your financial and mental matters in order, so then you are able to afford to be more aggressive than someone who is disorganized and is not paying attention to his cashflow, his emergency fund, his reserves and his float.. and so yeah, you might also make some mistakes because you might sometimes get too aggressive, but if you are planning through various aspects, then your mistakes are not likely going to be enough to put you out of the game.. the mistakes end up not being able to buy for a few weeks or having to use some of your emergency fund because you fucked up with your management of your reserves and/or your float. and things like that.. so part of this whole matter is staying in the game, since there are hostile governments and hostile financial institutions that would like to remove you from your coins and even discourage and/or dissuaded you from accumulating bitcoin... I get the sense that some of the matters related to fees in the last 6 months were attacks on the psychology and the finances of poor people, and so poor people have to figure out ways to be more organized and to put systems in place so that you can still accumulate bitcoin, even when there are forces working against you, and surely as I said before holding your own keys, but maybe you have to build up your wallet size on some exchange to get it up to $500 or $1k before you move it to a private wallet.. which also can cause additional risks that you have to figure out for yourself you level of wanting to deal with that or you might screw yourself if you end up having 400 transactions that are valued between $10 and $100 and when you should have taken measures to limit the number of UTXOs that you have that are so small like that.
 

but all I know is that as my earnings or sources multiply as time goes so as my accumulating rate would also multiply .

It is not guaranteed but surely we have quite a bit of evidence in place that bitcoin is going to continue to have a lot more UPside movements, so this is a good place to be, yet you still have to figure out your position size and your balancing of you position size with real world concerns.. so that you will have enough fiat during times in which you need it.
 

Just as you said we are still in the early stage,

 Yep.. we get arguments about whether 1% adoption has already happened or not, and there can be some distortions since there are a lot of rich people gobbling up the supply.. which also will deter poor people from doing their own gobbling up of coins... so there are so many normies who don't realize that they are going to need bitcoin, ... .while at the same time none of us knows the future exactly.. which again gets us back to figuring out our position size.

though have missed alot of opportunity in investing in bitcoin but this time around am not planning to take any chances, I will keep accumulating going even though it take me a whole cycle to hit my goal it still worth it.

Many people will probably need to take more than a whole cycle and even 2-3 cycles or more.. to be able to really get to a point of accumulating enough BTC.. so you might end up being ahead of the game, even if you perceive that you were a bit of a slow starter.. but there are a lot of folks who consider that they are too late, but they end up not doing anything or they get distracted into shitcoins because they are searching for the next bitcoin or the quick 10x or quick 100x.. .. hahahahahaha .. I remember some of the trolls were even worse in 2017 when they were arguing that BTC was not going up fast enough and pumping their shitcoin bullshit. ..and yeah, there might have been some of them who were able to get in and out of their shitcoin, but just holding BTC worked pretty damned good for guys who bought and held through that whole period, even though guys will sometimes start to get depressed when the BTC price is down 50% and it keeps correcting... and so the end of the correction remains unclear.. but the  guys who kept buying through 2018, 2019 and 2020.. ended up looking like geniuses later down the road.. .. and so we cannot know how it will end up playing out this time.

And have alot to still learn from you sir JJG and other users here while I keep  Accumulating .

No problem.. one of the best teachers is your own practices and your application and your coming back to help other guys. .. we are going to continue to get newbies, and even though you might be feeling like a newbie, at some point you are going to be having to teach the newbies who are coming here.. .. including figuring out ways to deal with the traders and the shitcoiners... who might not always be completely wrong.. but on this forum,  there are other threads for that, too... yet they are still going to be coming into threads like this and also into some of the other bitcoin threads and either pumping shitcoins or trying to get you to sell your coins earlier than is probably for your own good... and likely many of us will also question our own practices.. because even if we are continuing to build our sats, we sometimes will consider if we might need to make some adjustments to get some more sats.. or more bang for the buck, which is part of the dilemma presented in this thread, even though many guys have considered DCA to be the best, buying the dip (or even lump summing) sometimes will get us more sats.. it is just quite difficult figure out when the dip is going to be, how far it will go or how long it is going to last.

So maybe the odds that you come to calculate might look something like the below that in 10 years BTC will:
1) Go to zero (or less than $10) (and not recover)  - less than 1%
2) Go to a price that is between $10 and $1k (and not recover) -  less than 5%
3) Go to a price that is between $1k and $10k (and not recover) -  less than 8%
4) Go to a price that is between $10k and $35k (and not recover) -  less than 9%
5) Go to a price that is between $35k and below the current price ($66k-ish) (and not recover) -  less than 10%
6) Go to a price that is between the current price ($66k-ish) and $150k (and get stuck there) -  around 10%
7) Go to a price that is between $150k and $500k (and get stuck there) -  around 12.5%
8 ) Go to a price that is between $500k and $1m (and get stuck there) -  around 12.5%
9) Go to a price that is between $1m and $2m (and get stuck there) -  around 12.5%
10) Go to a price that is between $2m and $10m (and get stuck there) -  around 12.5%
11) Go to a price that is higher $10m -  around 7%

Thumbs up for this Jay. However, i believe its a complex task to predict the price movement of bitcoin. But you have made efforts to share your thoughts on what concerns you.

You have assigned a probability of <1% to Bitcoin reaching zero which I fully agree with you.

I made this prediction a bit spontaneously from numbers that came into my head (and wanting them to add up to 100%), and so I was also trying to ball park the numbers but also to frame the various possible price ranges in terms of both where we might be in 10 years (or what price range we might be in in 10 years).. based on where we are at right now.. and so if something were to change, I might have to change my ranges or my odds... so for example, if we were to shoot down to $20k or we shot up to $200k within the next 6 months, then I likely would have to reconsider matters.. and any of that kind of shooting around is quite likely, and it would probably be unlikely that the price would perform in such a gradual kind of way that my numbers would not end up changing along the way..

I frequently like to go by the 200-WMA, and so if that 200-WMA is kind of staying on track, then it gives decently good guidelines for where we are at, how we got here and where we might be going.. which I figure is represented in my entry-level fuck you status chart... which shows the historical and projected 200-WMA every 6 months.. and even this 6 month period, it is appearing that the upward trajectory is going to have to get upgraded from 16% to around 23%. which is going to end up changing the subsequent bottom (200WMA) prediction numbers and even my own ongoing consideration that my last updating of that chart in November 2023 was too conservative (so yeah, I am planning to update it every 6 months.. .even though maybe I should update it more often or even create another thread just for updating it more frequently.. especially since I refer to it so often.

It is difficult to believe that Bitcoin will ever go to zero someday irrespective of the factors that may affect the price (regulation, adoption, technical development, and competition).

I would imagine that its odds for going to zero in a longer timeline would be greater than it is for within the next 10 years, but who knows?  It could well be that bitcoin is with us forever, as amazing as even the idea of that seems to be and a lot of no coiners and precoiners cannot get their minds around the concept that bitcoin has a kind of existence that makes it stronger than gold.. . .(and in the ballpark of 1,000x more valuable than gold, even though it could take 50-200 years to get to that valuation).

Prediction number 9 interests me the most. This is because the probability of hitting $1m and $2 is above the 12.5% margin. I support any investor with a whole of Bitcoin and will be much happier. My only consideration is that the price won't get stuck there.

My phrasing regarding the "stuck there" is mostly an attempt to say where we might be 10 years from now.. so "stuck there" might not have been a great descriptive choice... .. but maybe if I had just said, where is the BTC price going to be in 10 years and then assigned ranges, that might have been better, even though we know that the BTC price could go up down or whatever, and then where-ever we might end up in 10 years could be crazy, because there could be scenarios that bitcoin does something outrageous and moves through some pretty broad swaths of prices, even though there is a certain kind of Lindy effect that is going on too.. and also including that the more capital that comes in, then the more capital it takes to move the price.

I don't know your reasons for thinking that the price would get stuck at certain price ranges, which is not typical market behavior for Bitcoin. The market tends to fluctuate so sustained plateaus are unlikely.

Probably a bad way of phrasing where we might be in 10 years, and surely I agree that BTC is both designed to pump forever, but also there are likely to be a lot of battles between here and $5 million or so then maybe between $5 million and $100 million per coin might be price arenas in which it becomes a lot more difficult to move the price as much.. so yeah, bitcoin is almost inevitably going to be volatile at least until we get to $5million, which could happen in a cycle or two or three or maybe it takes longer to get there.. and there are going to be both battles and also ongoing and continuous gravitation of monetary value into BTC. .. which is why its addressable market is close to $2.1 quadrillion in future value and around $1 quadrillion in current value.. but there is likely going to be more monetary value in the future as well that is brought by things like bitcoin that we don't necessarily know, yet.. and so $2.1. quadrillion is $1 per satoshi.. but yeah it could take 50 to 200 years to get there..

Here's how confident I am predicting that the price of Bitcoin will be in the next 10 years.
Low-end prediction: $500k - $800k - 70%
High end: $1M - $2M - 30%

You are nutso, and you are bound to be wrong.  Evenif you want to stick to those categories, you need to at least present all of the possibilities..

So maybe something like this would be more encapsulating of all possibilities from your perspective.. which again is nutso, as presented, even if one of those two possibilities might end up playing out..

Stablexcoin's prediction reframed into comprehensiveness

Below $500k - 1% or less

Low-end prediction: $500k - $800k - 69%

High end: $1M - $2M - 29%

Greater than $2 million - 1% or less

You can tweak these numbers  if you like.. but at least the categories are not logically fallacious if you at least account for all of the possibilities, which your earlier example did not and your earlier example likely assigned too high of values to your  two price range possibilities, even though surely you are free to believe whatever you like, even if you are living in a fantasy with your failure/refusal to acknowledge all possibilities.  

Considering that the rate of inflation may be greater 10 years from now, I doubt that bitcoin would want to remain at the bottom when it's a hedge against inflation.

Whenever I make future predictions, I try to frame them in terms of either today's dollars or a reasable ongoing dollar debasement, even though we know that the dollar is not going to debase in a reasonable way..  .. sure we could make our predictions in terms of some other asset like gold or oil or big macs or something like that or even measuring from Hookers, lambos, blow and yachts, but at this time, we are still measuring these kinds of matters in terms of dollars, which the dollars ongoing debasement is perverting values a lot since it is likely going to enter into hyperinflation at some point, so we will end up having to measure in other ways when that ends up happening.. which may or may not end up happening soon within 1-30 years.. I have no clue about how long the dollar/fiat/debt-laden ponzi scheme can keep from totally crashing..

I actually suspect that I_Anime does not even have that good of finances in place,   ..  but I don't know, yet these would be the kinds of considerations that a newer guy into bitcoin would have to attempt to take into account and try to plan around so that he can control the amount that he sells or does not sell and to consider if there might be some price points in which it does not make sense for him to continue to DCA.. and either just to hold those funds or maybe put them into other assets.. which are all trade offs, in which some guys will just continue to accumulate BTC for more than a whole cycle before getting into any ideas of selling any BTC or even discontinuing their DCA... but part of the problem is reality.. and the reality may well be that the job of any newbie is not really paying very high wages as compared to the appreciation of their BTC (at least the appreciation that may not end up being sustainable)

While most people now make money for a living, there are few people who can earn some extra income beyond a job or fixed income. What you suggest is certainly valid, but most people by now think that cash is the only thing that matters to them. That's basically why they convert from all other currencies or from bitcoins to cash. Because of this they cannot implement any kind of plan, because the cash withdrawals are spent on life or livelihood.

For most this is the job, you work for your living but it may not be enough.And anything other than sufficient income is out of the question.In this case, small income people can move towards DCA strategies but on a small scale.Start with a small portion of your weekly or monthly income, such as $100. And if you start, you can save it without any hindrance in addition to household expenses. If you can keep DCAing for at least a year then you are successful.This is how people's success stories begin. And bitcoin DCAing a deposit is going to be great for you in future.

Yep.. Negotiation seems to be ongoingly blind and ongoingly fighting the idea of investing for the long term.. so he is going to have to have fun staying poor... because he is likely never going to get ahead by saving in fiat and failing/refusing to build a BTC stash (even if it is a small one), and surely there are going to be a lot of people coming to bitcoin quite late and wishing that they could have stacked some sats for less than $100k per BTC... and there are going to be satoshi millionaires and they are going to be quite proud of themselves, when right now we can get become a satoshi millionaire for right around $700.. what a deal!!!  that some of us do not recognize and/or appreciate.

I remember less than a year ago, I helped my sister to become a satoshi multimillionaire and it was on several occasions that added up; to a few hundred dollars for sharing various costs and I paid her in BTC. and since then, she has been stacking her own sats... so I am not sure how many she has, but they surely have become more expensive over the last year to year and a half.