🏈🏈 The Essential NFL Thread 🏈🏈 - new poll every week

[willy2streams]

Correct me if I missed something but it appears we were all at least 50% wrong in our picks. I was 75% wrong, with the Seahawks being my only correct call. I just put a lot more stock in both Titans and Vikings.

I did not read the lastest posts to avoid the spoilers, however, after the Patriots' loss, I reckon that not betting on +8 might be a mistake. This is the playoffs. Teams will try harder, games will be scored closer.

In any case, I got spoilered by DireWolfM14's post heheheeh. Vikings were also +8?

Tennessee was +5, +4 at game start, while Vikings were +8.

I was wrong on every one of my predictions, those were 50% are way better than me, lol.  I'm going to change my strategy next year on Wild Cards; only bet on the underdogs, lol.

[1714210433]

1714210433

[Hueristic]

Correct me if I missed something but it appears we were all at least 50% wrong in our picks. I was 75% wrong, with the Seahawks being my only correct call. I just put a lot more stock in both Titans and Vikings.

I did not read the lastest posts to avoid the spoilers, however, after the Patriots' loss, I reckon that not betting on +8 might be a mistake. This is the playoffs. Teams will try harder, games will be scored closer.

In any case, I got spoilered by DireWolfM14's post heheheeh. Vikings were also +8?

Tennessee was +5, +4 at game start, while Vikings were +8.

Bills       ML         U?
Titans    Spread   O
Saints    ML         U?
SeaGulls Cover    U

Looks like it was a brutal week all around. I wouldn't even want to figure out what this bet would have been.

[DireWolfM14]

@bbc.reporter, sorry about the spoiler.

What a crazy weekend.  The Saints and the Pats are one and done?  Wouldn't have guessed that in a million years.

What about the hit Clowney put on Wentz?  I thought that should have been flagged, not that it would made any difference.  I knew the Eagles were done as soon as I saw Wentz heading to the locker room. 

The AFC south is a tougher division than we've been giving them credit for, two AFC south teams move on the divisional round.  The NFC is down the west and the north.

For my next round of wrong predictions:  All the home teams move on to the conference round.

[bbc.reporter]

@DireWolfM14. Hehehe it is ok. I saw it while I was typing.

In any case, I reckon the Patriots lost the game because 2 situations. On the last 2 minutes of the 2nd quarter when they did not stop Derrick Hill's drives and during the 3rd quarter when Julian Edelman dropped the ball.

[Hueristic]

@DireWolfM14. Hehehe it is ok. I saw it while I was typing.

In any case, I reckon the Patriots lost the game because 2 situations. On the last 2 minutes of the 2nd quarter when they did not stop Derrick Hill's drives and during the 3rd quarter when Julian Edelman dropped the ball.

And in the final seconds when brady threw the pick 6.

[tyKiwanuka]

Well, well, those were some interesting games. Eagles game was a bit meh, but what can you do when McCown is your backup. Wentz was still able to make up for some issues with his abilities, but McCown wasn't. Seahawks looked pretty bad imo, but a win is a win and I am sure we will see a different Seahawks team next game.

I enjoyed watching Mike Vrabel giving his ex-coach some of his own medicine. BB was furious on the sidelines and I was just waiting for him to knock that referee down Pretty sure this loophole will be closed somehow in the near future, but there is always something to be learned when watching a NFL game. What I found a bit pathetic is BB being such a cry baby about it, because he was doing exactly the same to the Jets and taunting them with it.
While I enjoyed watching it unfold, I don't think it was the right move to do. Titans were just leading with one point and with a FG from the Patriots, they would probably be the ones with very few time left and might want to have that valuable seconds and minutes back. Eating the clock with 5 minutes to go in a close match is never good imo. But a lot of teams are doing it always.

Derrick Henry is such an animal

I'll share my thoughts about the upcoming matches this weekend:

Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers
I think this one is priced completely wrong. 49ers have the same odds as the Saints had against the Vikings - and this can't be correct. Vikings impressed me very much in how they were able to basically completely shut down the best offensive in the NFL in their own backyard. Saints were completely clueless offensively. And while the Saints defense was ok-ish during the season, they were always a bit suspect to me. And of course they failed to win the game for the Saints, when Brees and the offense had some kind of an off-day (also due to Vikings Defense being so good).
Now as I wrote earlier, I like the 49ers more on the road than I do at home. I don't know why, but they give me the feeling of being more lethal in away games. Being the huge favourite doesn't do them good and will put a lot of pressure on them. Vikings don't have any pressure at all. They should be sky-high on confidence and have nothing to lose, though Cousins is always a trainwreck waiting to happen when under center. But if you can win at the Saints, you can win anywhere. Still think the 49ers will pull this one off somehow, but the odds on the Vikings are too good to miss. Lots of value imo. You like that ?

Vikings ML @3,7x

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens
Pretty hard to make a point here for the Ravens NOT advancing. Odds are a tad low for the Ravens imo, but don't think the Titans can pull the upset here. Ravens have just been so good and dominating offensively and defensively. They might come out a bit rusty, but as time goes by they should find their rythm and continue their dominance. As ML odds are a bit low for the Ravens, so is the HC of course. 9.5 points is a lot to cover in a playoff game and we saw very close games in wild card round. In general I am not a big fan of betting on HC's, as NFL teams - in contrast to College teams - are not interested in such things. They just want to win. So I won't take my chances with any kind of HC-bet here. Could be +/-7,5 or +/-11,5, I wouldn't touch it.

No bet

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
Expecting a very different showing from the Texans in this one. That win against the Bills was very ugly and not that much deserved, but this is a different game now. Texans have been a bit hot and cold the whole season and I think they will be hotter for this game again.
These teams met in regular season with the Texans being able to edge out a 31-24 road win as a ~2,70 underdog. For the weekend they are priced above 4,50, which is a bit surprising to me. This is imo purely based on the poor performance againts the Bills. And still I won't take my chances with these odds, because I don't see the Texans winning at Arrowhead again. Chiefs have been rock solid over the last weeks and what springs out is their very good defensive performance. They held the Bears to 3 points, Broncos to 3, Patriots to 16 and Raiders to 9 over a stretch of 4 games. Otoh they haven't been the offensive powerhouse they used to be last season. They have been putting up 30+ points every now and then, but often stayed in the 20-30 points range. And if they do so again and win, this one won't go over. And Texans better not get into a shootout here with the Chiefs.

Under 51

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers
Apart from the 49ers game, this is the one I am looking most forward to. This is because I can't stand Aaron Rodgers and always enjoy seeing him and the Cheeseheads lose. And I think they will lose. Despite their pretty good record, I don't think they are a good football team. With Rodgers being your QB you of course always have the ability to beat anyone on any given day. But whom did they beat this season ? I will give them credit for sweeping the series against the Vikings, but other than that nothing worth mentioning imo. That win at Arrowhead looks nice on paper, but it was with Moore under center for KC. The other two teams they faced, that made the PO's, was the 49ers (L 8-37) and the Eagles (L 27-34).
As mentioned, Seahawks were poor-ish against the Eagles, but it's very fitting for them. They always play up and down to their competition. They often struggle mightily with weaker opposition, but are able to up their game with the best of the best. As with the 49ers, I think the Seahawks are better road team than home team right now, which historically has been the complete opposite. Against the top teams this season, they weren't very successful. Splitting the divisonal games with the 49ers, losing to the Saints, losing to the Ravens. But I don't see the Packers as a top team right now and the Seahawks managed to beat all those non-divisional middle of the pack teams. It was often close, but they got the W. And I expect them to beat the Packers in a close game as well. Wins at Lambeau don't come easy, but Seahawks are actually favourite for me here.

Seahawks ML @2,6x

[nutildah]

I enjoyed watching Mike Vrabel giving his ex-coach some of his own medicine. BB was furious on the sidelines and I was just waiting for him to knock that referee down Pretty sure this loophole will be closed somehow in the near future, but there is always something to be learned when watching a NFL game. What I found a bit pathetic is BB being such a cry baby about it, because he was doing exactly the same to the Jets and taunting them with it.

Turned out to be a pretty smart move as it really messed with BB's head. You can see him saying "that's fuckin' bullshit!" two times at about this point in the first video:

https://youtu.be/CTsvc9pkZ04?t=97

Not like he wouldn't do anything under the sun that was possible without getting caught in order to give his team just the slightest advantage... but that's part of what makes him a great coach.

Odd that Brady's last throw of the season (and potentially career) was that Pick 6. The announcers were talking about how he wanted to play until he was 45, and he's 42 now (almost 43)... that he may go to the Chargers so he could live closer to his wife. Unlike what happened with Brett Farve, Brady doesn't seem to be showing many signs of slowing down. I mean, he acts a bit gingerly in the pocket, and a big hit in all the wrong places could end his career pretty fast these days, so whoever takes him will have to have a rock solid O line.

As for your analyses, its obvious you put some time and consideration into your picks so I am giving you a couple of merits for your troubles.

No matter how big the Vikings win was over the Saints, I still gotta stick with SF for their next game -- just not overcome-able in my mind. Perhaps they will beat the spread, but my bet is they will lose the game.

For the other games, to win, I like:

Ravens
Chiefs
Seahawks

[tyKiwanuka]

Odd that Brady's last throw of the season (and potentially career) was that Pick 6. The announcers were talking about how he wanted to play until he was 45, and he's 42 now (almost 43)... that he may go to the Chargers so he could live closer to his wife. Unlike what happened with Brett Farve, Brady doesn't seem to be showing many signs of slowing down. I mean, he acts a bit gingerly in the pocket, and a big hit in all the wrong places could end his career pretty fast these days, so whoever takes him will have to have a rock solid O line.

BB wants him out, but Kraft not from what I read. A bit of the same situation some years ago with Garoppolo - BB wanted him to take over, but Kraft had other plans in store, so Brady stayed. Question remains, who would be his replacement and I think that is the thing Patriots organization has to make their minds up first. They don't have a high draft pick, but they have time to evaluate the options. Don't think Brady will sign anywhere soon and the Patriots will always be his first option.

In the end I think it's either Patriots or retirement. Tbh he is still a good QB, but he isn't top-notch anymore. It was always the BB+Brady combo that was working so well. While I think BB can still be very successful with another QB, I doubt Brady can be successful (at this age) with another coach. And in the end he will just hurt his legacy imo.

Betonline had odds up, but the market seems to be gone now. It was like this:


Source: https://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/tom-brady-odds

Looking down this list, I think the Cowboys would be a good fit, because they have this very good O-Line you were talking about. And they have very good offensive tools (Cooper, Zeke, Gallup). Now Brady would eat up some cap space and they are already troubled a bit in that department. On top they would need some more talent on defense. Jerry wants that SB as bad as it gets I think, but they would have to let go Prescott. McCarthy might have different plans

No matter how big the Vikings win was over the Saints, I still gotta stick with SF for their next game -- just not overcome-able in my mind. Perhaps they will beat the spread, but my bet is they will lose the game.

With a pistol to my head, I would take the 49ers as well I think they will win as I said above, but I am looking from a betting perspective here. Odds say, 49ers will win this one 75% of the time and I don't think is correct. I am seeing this more as a 60-40 game, so the odds for the Vikings present some value for me. So my head says, to bet on the Vikings, while my heart wants the 49ers to advance.

[vella85]

Well my Saints pick to win the SB is over so I am going with my other picks and that is the Packers and Chiefs to make the SB. If the 49ers and Packers both win it will set up the match up most want to see and this time can the Packers get the job done against the 49ers if it comes to this? Something also tells me not to leave out the Titans as they could be the dark horse in all this.

[nutildah]

🏈🏈NEW POLL - Playoffs Edition🏈🏈

Decided to do things a little differently this week... Vote for the team you feel most confident to beat the spread. Let's see if we can come up with some kind of general consensus here.

Here are this weekend's 4 games and their current lines:

01/11
4:35 PM
[301] MINNESOTA +7
[302] SAN FRANCISCO -7

01/11
7:15 PM
[303] TENNESSEE +9.5
[304] BALTIMORE -9.5

01/12
2:05 PM
[305] HOUSTON +9.5
[306] KANSAS CITY -9.5

01/12
6:40 PM
[307] SEATTLE +4
[308] GREEN BAY -4

[Hueristic]

Seahawks are going to win I think, I really wanted to pick the titans or vikings to cover but I have not seen anything out of greenbay to show they have any heart.

I still think those 2 will cover though.

[South Park]

Well my Saints pick to win the SB is over so I am going with my other picks and that is the Packers and Chiefs to make the SB. If the 49ers and Packers both win it will set up the match up most want to see and this time can the Packers get the job done against the 49ers if it comes to this? Something also tells me not to leave out the Titans as they could be the dark horse in all this.

I have been expecting for a NE vs NO Super Bowl for a long time and that did not happened either, I wanted a nice ending for the career of either Brady or Brees, but since that is not possible I would like to see some fresh blood in the big game.

From the NFC I want to see SF, the rest of the teams do not seem to have what it is necessary to beat the AFC, GB does not seem to have anything special going on for them, Minnesota has Cousins which is not really that good in important games, Seattle seems like the best besides SF but they will have to beat both GB and SF as visitors and that does not seem likely.

From the AFC I would like to see KC but Baltimore has the greater chances to get there, and it will be interesting to see if SF can take revenge for that loss in SB XLVII.

My predictions for next week are: Baltimore, KC, SF and Seattle and for the poll Seattle will cover against GB.

[morvillz7z]

I will give out my predictions tomorrow but damn everyone jumping on the Seahawks to cover the spread + 4 (currently 4 votes in) is crazy imo.
Seattle barely won against Josh McCown and a bunch of reserves with Russel Wilson being their lead rusher with 56 yards. If SEA get the same production from Homer and Lynch they don't stand a chance. Meanwhile in Green Bay...

"Packers offer $12 an hour for 700 shovelers to help clear snow before playoff game." - source


© Mike Roemer/Associated Press

[wheelz1200]

I will give out my predictions tomorrow but damn everyone jumping on the Seahawks to cover the spread + 4 (currently 4 votes in) is crazy imo.
Seattle barely won against Josh McCown and a bunch of reserves with Russel Wilson being their lead rusher with 56 yards. If SEA get the same production from Homer and Lynch they don't stand a chance. Meanwhile in Green Bay...

"Packers offer $12 an hour for 700 shovelers to help clear snow before playoff game." - source


© Mike Roemer/Associated Press

Seattle is a grit team, green bay easily has their flaws too.  I actually took Seattle at 14-1 to win the superbowl .  Yeah it's a longshot bit of anyone can claw through it's my boy russ!  I think they win this one 27-23 in flambeau to shock the cheese heads!

[bbc.reporter]

Seahawks are going to win I think, I really wanted to pick the titans or vikings to cover but I have not seen anything out of greenbay to show they have any heart.

I still think those 2 will cover though.

Baltimore might not cover -9.5 spread also, I reckon. This is the playoffs. Teams will play with more effort and more usually will risk injury because it is the end of the season.

@wheelz1200. Gerrit Cole with the Yankees. Baseball betting thread next hehehe?

[morvillz7z]

[301] MINNESOTA +7
[302] SAN FRANCISCO -7

I don't think Vikings can force two upsets in a row.
They did play very well last week hats off to them, Cook had a dominant game and their defense stepped up in the right moments, and still needed overtime to win. But against the 49ers and their defense, it will be a different story. That's why i'm picking Niners to win and Vikings to cover.
I have a small bet on the U 44.5 as i expect both teams to run the ball first and on defense not to give any big plays.


[303] TENNESSEE +9.5
[304] BALTIMORE -9.5

Tannehill and the Titans had a good run so far, knocking down the defending champs but unfortunately for them, season ends today.
I don't care if D.Henry goes for 200 yards and 3 TDs, they are not advancing. I expect Ravens to win by 10-14pts so i'm picking them to cover the spread as well.

For the weekly poll, i voted Packers to cover the spread (-4).

[ralle14]

For today's divisional matches I got the 49ers and the Titans to cover. The Vikings' playoff run should stop here I know they just took out one of the best team but it feels like beating another team (and with one of the best offense) is just too much. With the spread being -7 I like the chances of 49ers at home and riding the home team trend since in all of their head to head results the road team hasn't won.

On the Titans' and Ravens game, I don't see the Titans winning this but I expect a closer result since the previous matches haven't reached the double digits. Also this was my vote on the poll.

[vella85]

Something tells me that we'll see the 49ers and Packers face off in the NFC Championship game, there was an interview with Rogers not long ago where they asked him about beating the 49ers at Levi's stadium and he said something like we'll have to beat them sometime so could it be coming? After my Saints SB pick lost I have a bet on the Chiefs and Packers to win the SB. I do like the Ravens tonight but I am liking the Titans to cover the +10 so I have taken that as my play for tonight.

[tyKiwanuka]

Looks like an easy win for the 49ers and well deserved. Vikings can't get anything going offensively and their D-Line gets dominated as well. Not even 100yds middle into Q3 is really pathetic. Should be a good game next week against GB/SEA.

[DireWolfM14]

Something tells me that we'll see the 49ers and Packers face off in the NFC Championship game, there was an interview with Rogers not long ago where they asked him about beating the 49ers at Levi's stadium and he said something like we'll have to beat them sometime so could it be coming? After my Saints SB pick lost I have a bet on the Chiefs and Packers to win the SB. I do like the Ravens tonight but I am liking the Titans to cover the +10 so I have taken that as my play for tonight.

I predict all the home teams will move on this weekend.  I don't know what the statistics say, but a home game after a week off makes such a big difference.  Most of the teams that had last weekend off are healthy and will be playing strong.  The difference between the 9er's and Viking's running game is a prime example of how much a week off can help.

Watch the Vikings defense, as the game wears on.  They are already showing how tired they are, and the Niners aren't making things easy for them.  The 9ers are going to keep running it down the Viking's through, and dominate the time of possession.

For those of you who gamble, I hope you placed a bet on the 9ers to cover the spread.  It looks like I'm the only one who voted for them to do so in this week's poll.