Dont let them fool you. We will see a NEW BOTTOM. Maybe BTC at 3400$ again?

[d3nz]

That's a great analysis but still we don't yet id that will happen. If the value of bitcoin reall go doan below $5,000 then it could be good for traders since they can hoard a lot and this is really good for a long term investment because for sure that it will rise up again or bounce back to its current price after the fall.

But still we really don't knkw if it will go down, and a lot of prediction that it will go much higber after the halving and it could hit range value of $15,000 - $20,000.

[cutesgirl]

That's a great analysis but still we don't yet id that will happen. If the value of bitcoin reall go doan below $5,000 then it could be good for traders since they can hoard a lot and this is really good for a long term investment because for sure that it will rise up again or bounce back to its current price after the fall.

But still we really don't knkw if it will go down, and a lot of prediction that it will go much higber after the halving and it could hit range value of $15,000 - $20,000.

Have pass bottom price for bitcoin and never have chance bitcoin back with lower price $3,400 because bitcoin twice from price now and look keep going on to higher price after many good time with halving and other moment to make bitcoin look stronger going to higher price, if you hope bitcoin back with lower price maybe you need waiting for long time.

[audaciousbeing]

I don't understand the concern of most people in the crypto industry. When the price is on the low, there is panic and concerns as to when the price would increase and now the price is increasing there is still threads and analysis here and there that is warning people that they should not even take it serious. The question is what exactly do we want in crypto as it is beginning to seem that nothing is satisfactory to anyone again. We speculate but when things are happening in that direction, we begin to panic.

[Febo]

Being a HODLER probable means right now a big bag altcoins portfolio with over a 90% loss.

Most holders have few 100% profit. Holder that have 90% loss needed to buy Bitcoin at $90000. Was Bitcoin ever $90000?  Even the ones that were super unlucky and bought Bitcoin at lets say $16000 have right now 50% loss.  But rare have chance to buy that high. Most bought bitcoin in $1000 or less levels.  To have 90% loss you need to trade. And you can make a 90% loss really fast that way. Can take only few days if really unlucky.

[darkangel11]

DUMP that shitty BSV!

Already did 6 months ago at $200. It's amazing how people could pump this shitcoin to a new ATH.
I could make more money on this but at least I got some more BTC for it. Long Satoshi, short Craig.

[ChiNgadOr]

People with LONG position, hope you have a tight stop loss. The last days price has been plunging while open interest keeps on rising. Around 860M. now on Haye's (aka liquidator) exchange.Think this will keep on rising, and when reach 1billion, it will dump really really hard (in the past did it easily with 1000$ down and tons of liquidation notifications in B. Snipper).
In the heatmap you can also see a big buy wall at 8.2k which should keep LONGs safe, but google about "spoof orders".. this walls are not so reliable. yesterday a $40M. dissappeared in  a while.

[ChiNgadOr]

Now the tittle of this thread doesn't sounds so stupid.. right? While most of people remained bullish I have been shorting the market. Wish you had a tight stop loss..otherwise the loss must be really huge

[buwaytress]

Now the tittle of this thread doesn't sounds so stupid.. right? While most of people remained bullish I have been shorting the market. Wish you had a tight stop loss..otherwise the loss must be really huge

Suppose one could look at any number of threads about price predictions, single out the ones with hyperbolic language and we'd see equal swings of either. So they look either brilliant, or downright silly. But then, we all know to take threads like these with plenty of grains of salt right?

Also, stop loss should have triggered for most. Probably a lot of buy triggers and then stop losses too along the way, but anyone with orders at 5690 would be smacking lips now.

[STT]

Being short always will miss the large rallys possible even in a bear market as sharp corrections are possible.    Shorts themselves are future buyers, the ideal is gain both ways and some manage that I guess.
   Any short I have is only to really hedge my longs, I dont like to close a short at a loss so I'm ok with a market move downwards and I can be bullish on a longer term time scale.   I dont see theres a real conflict as prices can move to any level for short duration, people assume its forever when it can just be a unique price on that day.  I always try to compare it to sales in a supermarket, the shelf price is the result of so many factors.   Thats a complicated way of saying many will hold and lose nothing by doing so, the people who borrowed in another currency to go long in Bitcoin are forced to dance while the market shoots bullets at their feet.   Every bit of news is amplified beyond reason, it does not mean BTC itself is in any way less useful or of less value then yesterday.

So far as a bottom price, when we lost the 50 day and 200 day so easily it was quite a big negative.   Its possible we return to the context of 200 week I suppose but I think we have other longer term measures possible and I'll reference them before deciding.   Seems we have more time to go for this upset generally, no rush.

[pixie85]

Now the tittle of this thread doesn't sounds so stupid.. right? While most of people remained bullish I have been shorting the market. Wish you had a tight stop loss..otherwise the loss must be really huge

Shorting the market since January? That must have been hard for you seeing 10 thousand for so long.

I hope you weren't shorting with leverage. That would be like sex with a hedgehog

[fabiorem]

I've got to tradingview, to try some analysis, but it seems to be impossible.

The manipulation was hard, really hard. There is a single red candle in the coinbase chart, going from 8k to 5k just today. Its a single entity dumping the coins. My guess is it dumping around 10k bitcoins, enough to make this effect in all exchanges. Maybe its something related to CSW court case, but I doubt it.

Also coinbase is leading the dump, the others are following it.

[Shinpako09]

I never thought of this happening since the beginning of the year. It perform very well and there is halving coming up. Now, we are below $5k in our local exchange site. I'm actually surprise, didn't see it was coming. What's even worst is, we may go even lower or maybe not worst since we could finally buy at a lower price we didn't expected. The dump is really hard, it was fast.

[jubalix]

I don't understand the concern of most people in the crypto industry. When the price is on the low, there is panic and concerns as to when the price would increase and now the price is increasing there is still threads and analysis here and there that is warning people that they should not even take it serious. The question is what exactly do we want in crypto as it is beginning to seem that nothing is satisfactory to anyone again. We speculate but when things are happening in that direction, we begin to panic.

The price being high is important to BTC being the utility it needs to be,

 about 1M a btc ~ 10M a btc.

This would allow you to throw in 10~100 billion at the market and not move it and so have the required liquidity to wrest control for GOV's dictating financial policy and sanction.

So I *want* a high BTC but not primarily for the USD$ amount or FIAT amount, rather for the displacement effect of the current banking system.

[jubalix]

I never thought of this happening since the beginning of the year. It perform very well and there is halving coming up. Now, we are below $5k in our local exchange site. I'm actually surprise, didn't see it was coming. What's even worst is, we may go even lower or maybe not worst since we could finally buy at a lower price we didn't expected. The dump is really hard, it was fast.

I think we are going to shake out a lot of holders right now. There should be a few epic dead cat bounces.

[coolcoinz]

Shorts themselves are future buyers, the ideal is gain both ways and some manage that I guess.

Exactly! If you only come to the market to short, and keep shorting against the market, you will hurt yourself. You short to go long and you go long to go short, when the trend reverses.
At this point it's a bit late to short.
If you short now, you bet on the epidemic lasting for a few more months. If you go long, you bet against it. It has to be said: you aren't trading with or against Bitcoin's trend, because what we're witnessing is not a trend, but a panic that originated from stocks, gold, oil, and all other markets.

[ChiNgadOr]

Shorts themselves are future buyers, the ideal is gain both ways and some manage that I guess.

Exactly! If you only come to the market to short, and keep shorting against the market, you will hurt yourself. You short to go long and you go long to go short, when the trend reverses.
At this point it's a bit late to short.
If you short now, you bet on the epidemic lasting for a few more months. If you go long, you bet against it. It has to be said: you aren't trading with or against Bitcoin's trend, because what we're witnessing is not a trend, but a panic that originated from stocks, gold, oil, and all other markets.

Nope, I was shorting because I expected whales (yes, that people that converted BTC in ponzi) to dump, but this coronavirus is still worse. I said 8k when BTC was at 13k in summer... then 5k, 3.5k.. now I say $1000 soon. Anyone still thinking BTC is digital gold, safe haven , ... and all this bullshit propaganda, deserves to lose his money.  Do you think I am wrong? Ok, open long.. time will tell us who was right.

[fabiorem]

A Bitmex exit scam could throw the price to sub-$1000. I would guess something around $700.

But it will last few minutes, since this price is from the previous bear market recovery (2013), so people will flock in to buy.

Also, nobody is selling due to virus doomsday. Most investors who sold, were gambling in Bitmex, or were legacy investors (from hedge funds, for example) who sold to cover other asset's losses. The culprit for the escape of legacy money is the pandemic fund.

Now, I could not care less for legacy money, as they will eventually return to bitcoin when the mass vaccinations starts. But Bitmex, seriously, why the crypto sector let this thing run? I'm concerned with the sector's direction over it. Its time to get rid of the "hodlers cult" and start to be serious about bitcoin. I run a full node everyday and I would like to see it succeed. It will not succeed while the sector keep this "freedom" bullshit discourse up. We dont want freedom for thieves, we want value for holders.

[gentlemand]

But Bitmex, seriously, why the crypto sector let this thing run?

Because it's voted into existence and sustained by the degenerate gamblers. Everyone flocked to Bitfinex despite its shonkiness because that's where the action was.

There's no getting rid of it. It needs to grow out of this phase and move onwards. You can't really force that or magic up its early arrival. The best you can do is outlast it.

[figmentofmyass]

A Bitmex exit scam could throw the price to sub-$1000. I would guess something around $700.

any reason to expect that? bitmex is a money printing machine. they have a strong interest in not exit scamming.

Now, I could not care less for legacy money, as they will eventually return to bitcoin when the mass vaccinations starts. But Bitmex, seriously, why the crypto sector let this thing run?

what is anybody gonna do about it? bitmex is registered in the seychelles and operates from HK. the USA government can't even touch them, let alone anyone else.

We dont want freedom for thieves, we want value for holders.

what thieves? if degenerates want to gamble with huge leverage on a shady exchange, who is getting hurt? i don't believe these narratives that bitmex is fundamentally bad or controls the market. that is just a different way of generally blaming "manipulators" whenever the market moves against you.

[STT]

At this point it's a bit late to short.

Theres always some circling overhead looking for chances to go short and pick off weak longs, but it takes progressively greater skill in order to get in and out alive with the prey in their talons.   At some point the market would rather just go long and see how far we can go in that direction.   
  Dont fight the tide, even the largest wave recedes retracts and restarts its motion again and is never exactly the same in the next instance as the last.    So I do think we are in revision here of the larger move of the last 7 days and then we begin the next weekly bar and see how far we go.



   The action fits my old chart quite well I reckon, both with trend from last summer high but also some reference even to the 2017 top there such is the vast range we tracked.  So below the 200 week average we are underneath the ice, its abnormal and we'll see how main markets and BTC react in sentiment.   Dare I say it could be considered a positively developing chart from here (if repeating), but we need time as surely the market wont agree all at once.