🏈🏈 The American Football Discussion Thread 🏈🏈

[bbc.reporter]

Also, I know everyone hates the Cowboys in here, however, they might cover -4.5 in their home stadium.

This caught my attention too, but more the ML. Browns won two in a row now and should have gotten some confidence, but it was "just" against Bengals/Football Team. If Dallas is able to win the TO battle and score a bit more on their own TO, they should comfortably win this.

I lost here, however, I won on the Bills -3. Josh Allen! I reckon sometimes it might be a mistake to bet against the trend hehe.

[South Park]

That 4th quarter attempt by the Cowboys was impressive it almost felt like they're about to win it until they made a bad return kick that was caught in the 50 yard line then escalated in to a quick touchdown by OBJ.  

I was watching this game and I was surprised once again by the call, the Cowboys made long kicks when it seemed they had to make an onside kick and then when they were just 3 points away they decided to go for an onside kick, I understand what they were trying to do, they kicked the ball hard so it could touch one of the players of the Browns and bounce back on their direction, but the few times I have seen this work is when the opposite team does not expect an onside kick.

So I really think the rules for onside kicks need to be revised, now it is almost impossible to recover one, maybe instead of having the kicking team wait until the ball moves 10 yards this could be reduced to 5 yards.

I hear ya with Tua.  I personally don't know his game very well but I'm sure you are having dreams of a Kyler Murrary or Mahomes type player.

I am not an expert on college football but I watch it from time to time and if it was up to me I would have selected Herbert over Tua, not only because he is more of a traditional QB than Tua but also because if I remember correctly Tua had an important injury on the hip and I have concerns about his durability.

I once had this dream for Mitchell Trubisky lol.  It's actually not very funny as it keeps me up at nights, seriously lol.

The 2017 NFL draft is going to haunt the Bears for a long time it is not only they selected Trubisky, they gave up a lot just to move one spot, Trubisky is now officially a flop and they selected him in a draft with both Mahomes and Watson, while Mahomes was a surprise and when the Chiefs selected him there were voices against it, the real issue is why the Bears did not took Watson which at the time was believed to be the best of his generation?

What do you think about Tannehill leaving and then going absolutely bonkers for Tennessee? I suppose a change of scenery can really jump start someones career..but you have to wonder how badly Miami may have been miss-managing him.  

Tannehill does not strike me as a QB that changes games on his own, his superior performance can be attributed to a superior cast around him, way better coaching and his experience finally showing up on his play.

The NFC East is so bad this year A combined record of 2-12-1 and one of those 2 wins came from a divisional game. Only Dallas was able to get a "real" win for the division and it was this miracle against the Falcons, which they should have lost, if not for some Falcons players messing things up with the onside kick. But Cowboys and Giants will meet next week, so it will be 3 wins for the NFC East in seven days for sure.

For a long time the NFC East has been the worst division on Football, when this season began I was thinking that maybe an 8-8 or 7-9 team could win it but at this rate a 5-11 team has a realistic chance of winning it, which is why I have suggested in the past that divisional champions should at least have a positive record to get on the playoffs, my argument is that on the playoffs we should see teams that are above the average and an 8-8 team does not fit that definition.




Edit: Breaking news the Texans fired Coach and GM Bill O'Brien.
Source: https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/10/05/texans-fire-bill-obrien/

[wheelz1200]

Also, I know everyone hates the Cowboys in here, however, they might cover -4.5 in their home stadium.

This caught my attention too, but more the ML. Browns won two in a row now and should have gotten some confidence, but it was "just" against Bengals/Football Team. If Dallas is able to win the TO battle and score a bit more on their own TO, they should comfortably win this.

I lost here, however, I won on the Bills -3. Josh Allen! I reckon sometimes it might be a mistake to bet against the trend hehe.

Yeah the bills have been impressive especially Josh Allen.  I knew they were going to be decent but they are definately the biggest surprise of the year so far. 

Giants have looked absolutely pitiful but their d actually did a real good job holding the rams down almost all game.

[nutildah]

How do you guys feel about New England vs. Kansas City today? Because of the lack of Cam Newton, the spread is currently +11.5 NE. It would appear that the starting QB for the Pats is going to be Brian Hoyer, who even though has been playing since 2009, I've never heard of. 11.5 seems like a lot of points but I'm under the opinion that the Chiefs can cover that no problem... Any reason not to take the Chiefs here that I might be missing?

[vella85]

I got two parlays going at the moment and with one of them I just need the Bills to win and in the other I need the Bills to win and the Giants to cover +14.5 which I must say they are doing much better then most expected so we'll see how this one turns out. Anyway the big one for me is for the Bills to win as then my risky parlay will hit thanks to the Browns causing an upset which I thought they would.

Hey, congrats! It was touch-and-go with the Bills game for a few minutes but now you've gotta be feeling pretty positive about the outcome. Round of beers for everybody, on you! 

Luckily I got refunded from the Bucs / Chargers game as the score hit the line exactly. I plowed that back into Buffalo... My total gambling balance is still down 50% for this season but I'm gonna keep at it.

Thanks mate! Yes it was touch and go with the Bills/Raiders game but the Bills defense is what got them over the line in that 4th quarter. Allen I thought made a couple of errors like that one where he got sacked well behind the line and out of field goal range, that's when I started to worry but the defense of the Bills was strong and I think helped get the Bills the win.

I think after yesterday's 2 parlay wins, I'll stay out of tonight's games. Good luck to the ones betting on tonight's games.

[morvillz7z]

<...>Any reason not to take the Chiefs here that I might be missing?

Belichick can always come up with something but that's about it...

Patriots will be missing their top 2 rushers in Cam and Sony Michel, given that they are also traveling on the day of the match + plus all the distractions around those tests, the spread doesn't look good in their favor. I don't think they will be able to run the ball well/control the tempo, and besides they gave up 35pts in their visit to Seattle vs. great QB and offense, it will be equally tough to stop Mahomes and co.

I was looking to put a bet on Kelce to score a TD (he has a birthday today), but unfortunately i don't have that option available, have to go with total receptions instead.

"Houston Texans fire coach/GM Bill O'Brien after 0-4 start"
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30048287/sources-houston-texans-fire-coach-gm-bill-obrien-0-4-start

...but he had to trade DeAndre Hopkins smh

[ralle14]

How do you guys feel about New England vs. Kansas City today? Because of the lack of Cam Newton, the spread is currently +11.5 NE. It would appear that the starting QB for the Pats is going to be Brian Hoyer, who even though has been playing since 2009, I've never heard of. 11.5 seems like a lot of points but I'm under the opinion that the Chiefs can cover that no problem... Any reason not to take the Chiefs here that I might be missing?

I also prefer the Chiefs' handicap the only part i'm worried about here is the second half of the game where they could give up some points in the end if they manage to get a sizeable lead in the first half. With that said I might just go with the first half handicap instead.

Edit : Locked my bet on the 1h Chiefs -7.5.

So many chances for Chiefs but they're always held to the field goal range there goes my 1h handicap. 

[ChiBitCTy]

I’m surprised at how well the NE D is holding up so far. Their offense is going to be god awful all night though of course. Even if they had Cam, they’d still have no shot at winning this game. I am going to be kicking my ass forgetting to bet this game, -7.5 KC I’ll take all day. (Work got in the way)  Fack

[bbc.reporter]

Also, I know everyone hates the Cowboys in here, however, they might cover -4.5 in their home stadium.

This caught my attention too, but more the ML. Browns won two in a row now and should have gotten some confidence, but it was "just" against Bengals/Football Team. If Dallas is able to win the TO battle and score a bit more on their own TO, they should comfortably win this.

I lost here, however, I won on the Bills -3. Josh Allen! I reckon sometimes it might be a mistake to bet against the trend hehe.

Yeah the bills have been impressive especially Josh Allen.  I knew they were going to be decent but they are definately the biggest surprise of the year so far.  

Giants have looked absolutely pitiful but their d actually did a real good job holding the rams down almost all game.

Was there odds offered for regular NFL season MVP before the season begun? I cannot find anything from any sportsbook that accept cryptocoins.

In any case, Patriots playing better than than the Ravens against the Chiefs hehehe. They have given up a horrible turn over near the endzone, however.

[wheelz1200]

Also, I know everyone hates the Cowboys in here, however, they might cover -4.5 in their home stadium.

This caught my attention too, but more the ML. Browns won two in a row now and should have gotten some confidence, but it was "just" against Bengals/Football Team. If Dallas is able to win the TO battle and score a bit more on their own TO, they should comfortably win this.

I lost here, however, I won on the Bills -3. Josh Allen! I reckon sometimes it might be a mistake to bet against the trend hehe.

Yeah the bills have been impressive especially Josh Allen.  I knew they were going to be decent but they are definately the biggest surprise of the year so far.  

Giants have looked absolutely pitiful but their d actually did a real good job holding the rams down almost all game.

Was there odds offered for regular NFL season MVP before the season begun? I cannot find anything from any sportsbook that accept cryptocoins.

In any case, Patriots playing better than than the Ravens against the Chiefs hehehe. They have given up a horrible turn over near the endzone, however.

Was lightly looking through the sites but can't find it.  I'm assuming josh allen didn't have specific odds on him.  He would be grouped into the field odds which usually aren't incredibly great because there is a large range of people in the field.

[tyKiwanuka]

I'm assuming josh allen didn't have specific odds on him.

QB's are normally not hidden in the field, since they are very likely to win MVP. According to this and this he was around 50-70 before the season. Now he is around 12 - the same as Prescott, who I think has a good shot, if Dallas starts to win.

[South Park]

"Houston Texans fire coach/GM Bill O'Brien after 0-4 start"
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30048287/sources-houston-texans-fire-coach-gm-bill-obrien-0-4-start

...but he had to trade DeAndre Hopkins smh

That trade was probably what had him on risk to begin with but that was not his only mistake, the Texans have no 1st or 2nd round picks for the next year, they are the oldest NFL team, it seems they are at least 10 million over the cap for the next year, the awful loss against KC on the playoffs and the controversial play calling on that game was a problem and now they had a 0-4 start , and while they have Watson as a draw to try to bring qualified candidates for the coach and GM positions most likely whoever goes there will ask for a very long contract since they will have their hands tied up for the first 2 years until they clean up the mess O’Brien made.

[wheelz1200]

I'm assuming josh allen didn't have specific odds on him.

QB's are normally not hidden in the field, since they are very likely to win MVP. According to this and this he was around 50-70 before the season. Now he is around 12 - the same as Prescott, who I think has a good shot, if Dallas starts to win.

Sitting at 4-0 id run with Allen than I would Prescott at this point.  Even of the cowboys win the division it will be with an 8-8 record or something like that.  Usually mvp comes out of the top couple teams in the league.  Unless he shatters records Prescott ain't winning it since Dallas defense is trash.

[tyKiwanuka]

Sitting at 4-0 id run with Allen than I would Prescott at this point.  Even of the cowboys win the division it will be with an 8-8 record or something like that.  Usually mvp comes out of the top couple teams in the league.  Unless he shatters records Prescott ain't winning it since Dallas defense is trash.

Yes, agree generally. But the fact that Allen is 4-0 and Prescott is 1-3 and they have the same MVP odds, is telling something, because Prescott is on pace for one hell of a season stat-wise:

After a 500 yard performance in week four against the Cleveland Browns, Dak Prescott is on pace to throw for 6,760 passing yards in 2020. If that pace holds up, it would shatter thecurrent single season passing record, which belongs to Peyton Manning who threw for 5,477 yards in 2013 with the Denver Broncos.

According to the article, to just break - not shatter - the record, he needs 316 yds/game for the rest of the season, which is very doable (remember they still play our Giants twice, although the defense was fine against the Rams ). And they have the easiest remaining schedule of all NFL teams, so a winning record is still very much in reach. If we assume them sweeping WAS/NYG, they are already at 5-3 virtually. Bills still have a lot of tough games on their schedule, as I wrote the other day: Titans, Chiefs, Patriots (2), Seahawks, 49ers, Steelers.

[wheelz1200]

Sitting at 4-0 id run with Allen than I would Prescott at this point.  Even of the cowboys win the division it will be with an 8-8 record or something like that.  Usually mvp comes out of the top couple teams in the league.  Unless he shatters records Prescott ain't winning it since Dallas defense is trash.

Yes, agree generally. But the fact that Allen is 4-0 and Prescott is 1-3 and they have the same MVP odds, is telling something, because Prescott is on pace for one hell of a season stat-wise:

After a 500 yard performance in week four against the Cleveland Browns, Dak Prescott is on pace to throw for 6,760 passing yards in 2020. If that pace holds up, it would shatter thecurrent single season passing record, which belongs to Peyton Manning who threw for 5,477 yards in 2013 with the Denver Broncos.

According to the article, to just break - not shatter - the record, he needs 316 yds/game for the rest of the season, which is very doable (remember they still play our Giants twice, although the defense was fine against the Rams ). And they have the easiest remaining schedule of all NFL teams, so a winning record is still very much in reach. If we assume them sweeping WAS/NYG, they are already at 5-3 virtually. Bills still have a lot of tough games on their schedule, as I wrote the other day: Titans, Chiefs, Patriots (2), Seahawks, 49ers, Steelers.

He is.  The odds also account for bigger market longer shots too.  The cowboys get a lot more national air time.  Dak is more well known than Josh Allen.  And no matter what vegas always skews towards those teams/players.  Happens the same with the Yankees in baseball, Lakers in NBA, Cowboys always have decent odds to win the super bowl no matter how awful their team is. 

The reason those odds are always like that because more money comes in on those teams/players because they are more well known and not really who is in line to really win. 

[ralle14]

I went with the Bucs for tonight's TNF and combined it with a Brady prop over 1.5 passing TD since his stats for passing TDs in the last four is 2,1,3,5. Also their three wins looks more impressive compared to the Bears since they had a much difficult schedule and I feel like they're more prepared heading in to this match. I was going to take the handicap but the difference between 2.5 and 3.5 is massive so I went with the match winner in case there's a missed extra point.  

Edit : The Bucs had a good chance in the 4th quarter for a touchdown when they're 3rd down then gained 15 they fell a yard short on the first down but decided to punt it instead of going for it when they're that close to the first and goal.

[vella85]

I went with the Bucs for tonight's TNF and combined it with a Brady prop over 1.5 passing TD since his stats for passing TDs in the last four is 2,1,3,5. Also their three wins looks more impressive compared to the Bears since they had a much difficult schedule and I feel like they're more prepared heading in to this match. I was going to take the handicap but the difference between 2.5 and 3.5 is massive so I went with the match winner in case there's a missed extra point. 

I think this is a good bet mate. I also like the Bucs tonight and I'm confident that Brady will score over 1.5 passing TDs. I'm still deciding on whether to take the Bucs ML in a parlay with the Dodgers ML and the Yankees/Rays over 9. I think this could be a good parlay for the night. Anyway good luck with your bets everyone! I'm more so looking forward to Sunday's games as I see some potential value in a couple of the games.

[wheelz1200]

I went with the Bucs for tonight's TNF and combined it with a Brady prop over 1.5 passing TD since his stats for passing TDs in the last four is 2,1,3,5. Also their three wins looks more impressive compared to the Bears since they had a much difficult schedule and I feel like they're more prepared heading in to this match. I was going to take the handicap but the difference between 2.5 and 3.5 is massive so I went with the match winner in case there's a missed extra point. 

I think this is a good bet mate. I also like the Bucs tonight and I'm confident that Brady will score over 1.5 passing TDs. I'm still deciding on whether to take the Bucs ML in a parlay with the Dodgers ML and the Yankees/Rays over 9. I think this could be a good parlay for the night. Anyway good luck with your bets everyone! I'm more so looking forward to Sunday's games as I see some potential value in a couple of the games.

I like this one too.  The bucs game i think is one of the better bets all week.  The yanks and rays i can actually see as a low scoring grind it out game.  There have been so many hrs this series and so many runs each game but it can't continue there has to be one low scoring game, but as long as its 10-0 yanks than all good either way.  Good luck 

[morvillz7z]

I was about to put a prop bet on Ronald Jones total rushing yards but i see Fournette has miraculously made it and will play tonight.

I don't know but i'm not feeling the Bucs, no Goodwin, Evans will play but hasn't practiced all week, O.J. Howard done for the year, they are a little banged up vs. decent Bears pass defense.

Allen Robinson is in one of my fantasy teams and i need him to have a big game, so O74.5 receiving yards + Nick Foles O1.5 pass TD for the lolz
edit;

Bears with a huge defensive play to force a fumble late in the 2nd, that's 14 unanswered pts.

I need 23 yards from Robinson in the 2HF, and one more TD from Foles. Should've taken Jones O64.5 too, 56 yds atm.

[wheelz1200]

I was about to put a prop bet on Ronald Jones total rushing yards but i see Fournette has miraculously made it and will play tonight.

I don't know but i'm not feeling the Bucs, no Goodwin, Evans will play but hasn't practiced all week, O.J. Howard done for the year, they are a little banged up vs. decent Bears pass defense.

Allen Robinson is in one of my fantasy teams and i need him to have a big game, so O74.5 receiving yards + Nick Foles O1.5 pass TD for the lolz

Foles is a fan of big play wide recievers so thats not too far off.  And the bears might find themselves in a shootout.  Remer its brady, he doesn't need top flight wide recievers to have a killer day.  I'd take that yrds plus 1.5 foles tds parlay.