MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’

[Free Market Capitalist]

Maybe I am getting way too far off topic?  

I think this debate is drifting to off topic, which is usual in long threads like this one. We come from debating about MSTR to end up talking about bitcoin accumulation and withdrawal strategies. But I think it's not entirely off topic so I'm going to respond. And by the way, I agree that buying MSTR shares is not diversification, to me it is simply adding leverage. You can get a higher return but you also have a higher risk, starting because you don't have the keys to the bitcoins held by MSTR.

There are so many people who fail/refuse to sufficiently save and/or invest any kind of meaningful amount, so both shooting for 10% investment/savings and not tapping into their long term savings/investment tends to be very powerful, yet like you mentioned it still will take a long ass time to really build wealth with those levels of 10% (even though those levels are quite practical and probably even a BIG improvement for a lot of folks).

Of course, I believe that even if you keep accumulating even with imperfections along the way you can find a better future financially speaking.

So, yeah, 10% per year is ONLY get you to a status of having had invested a whole year's income after 10 years, and if at minimum we need around 10 years of bitcoin to be able to be at fuck you status, then we are somewhat reliant for either growth of our value or putting in at larger rates.  We can ONLY do as much as we can do as far as putting in, and for sure, whatever we choose to invest into is not guaranteed, so we have to do our best to make sure that we invest in the best kind of thing(s) that we know to be available, which surely many of us consider to be bitcoin, yet even with bitcoin it is not guaranteed to appreciate and/or to compound our value, even though historically it has done quite well in regards to appreciating and compounding value.

...

Ok.. sure in order to accelerate his investment into bitcoin amounts, some guys might be capable of having his base investment amount into bitcoin as 10% of his salary, and then consider any extra money that comes in to him to be authorized to be invested into bitcoin.  That will help to build the base, and other various kinds of front-loading that can happen, yet at the same time, there is a bit of an assumption that after 3 cycles, it is quite likely that a lot of compounding ended up taking place, so the guy's being aggressive in his investment beyond the 10% has contributed towards his being able to profit from any compounding of value that ended up taking place in the bitcoin that he had been accumulating.
 
...

A guy can invest into bitcoin and still engage in various kinds of spend and replace, and also practicing using various kinds of storage solutions and even ways of transacting, but yeah, if a guy bought a hardware wallet, a Start 9 server, and a mining rig for 0.05731632 BTC, and then maybe he would have a goal to replace that spent 0.05731632 BTC BTC with 0.0582 BTC purchases within the upcoming month (outside of his normal BTC buys).

12 years is really not a long time to invest in regards to potentially getting to a place in which a guy might end up having life changing money.  

Historically, in bitcoin, a guy could have invested merely 10% of his salary into bitcoin and reached fuck you status within a couple of cycles.  So see the example of a guy who invested $100 per week over the last 9 years (That would be a guy with an annual salary of $52k investing $5,200 per year), would have gotten right around to 15.75 BTC, which clearly would be enough to replace the guys salary in terms of being able to live off of the amount.  

Right now, 15.75 BTC has a 200-WMA value of $665k and a spot price value of $1.6 million, so even going based on the 200-WMA value the guy could withdraw up to $66.5k per year, which is greater than his $52k salary...  I would presume that the BTC is going to keep up with the debasement of the dollar, yet we might also consider that if a guy started out investing in bitcoin and his salary was $52k, then maybe now his salary is higher and maybe his salary even doubled in the last 9 years.  Perhaps?    So the guy has to make those kinds of calculations to figure out if he is going to keep buying bitcoin or even to just wait for his already accumulated 15.75 BTC is enough and he can use his discretionary income in other ways.

Well, when I gave my example I had in mind not only people from the USA but from the rest of the world, and I also believe that in the future the revaluation of bitcoin is going to be potentially lower than the calculation made since 9 or 12 years ago. Although next year looks very bullish I believe that the returns of the next 3 cycles will be lower than the returns of the last 3 cycles.

Guys also have choices whether to start withdrawing and living off of their BTC or to continue to work and to continue to build their BTC until it gets to their desired level (and there would have had been too many variables to completely figure out 9 years ago, yet with the passage of time, the guy can see progress, yet at the same time historical performance numbers are not going to necessarily give any kind of precise abilities to see future performance levels).  

Even with fuck you status, such status does not have to be all or nothing, since it should be seen as giving more options...  

That's right, accumulating wealth gives you options, and just because you have fuck you status doesn't mean you're necessarily going to quit your job. It depends on whether you like it more or less, but maybe you can decide to work less hours, or freelance instead of working for a company, things like that.

It seems that having the ability to completely replace a person's current salary by entering into a sustainable withdrawal of BTC tends to be quite a powerful place to be..

I agree 100%.

I know that I might sound adamant about not selling any bitcoin prior to having more than enough, and largely I am attempting to direct my comments at the guys who sell for the purpose of buying back cheaper.  

Yes, trying to time the market when bitcoin gives you an impressive return for doing nothing, other than continuing to accumulate or just hold, doesn't seem very smart.

Many people have their main investments as their personal residence and perhaps some kind of a 401k, and so if some of those 401ks might have bitcoin options (such as MSTR or ETF options), then they could choose within their 401ks, otherwise they are faced with choosing the buying of BTC directly.   It can be difficult for people to invest beyond their personal residence and their 401k, and surely there is a bit of a perversion with the personal residence serving as an investment (especially since it is not very liquid, it has a lot of costs, and frequently people buy houses that are more expensive than they can afford, so they are left without a lot of money left over to invest into anything else).  

It can be quite challenging for anyone to invest, even up to 10% into bitcoin if they might have 30% or more of their income going into their mortgage payment, maybe up to 10% going into their 401k, so then they might consider the other portion of their income to be needed to live off of rather than investing into something like bitcoin.  

Agreed.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Well, when I gave my example I had in mind not only people from the USA but from the rest of the world, and I also believe that in the future the revaluation of bitcoin is going to be potentially lower than the calculation made since 9 or 12 years ago. Although next year looks very bullish I believe that the returns of the next 3 cycles will be lower than the returns of the last 3 cycles.

I recall that when Saylor first got into bitcoin, he was frequently proclaiming bitcoin is going to double every year, since that was what the history showed, yet in recent times, he got more realistic, in terms of expecting a CAGR that slowly goes down in the amount, so that even if we might be in the 70% territory for our current CAGR, he is expecting a CAGR of something like 29% by 2045, which seems reasonable as a kind of working parameter.

On a personal level, I would not want to get caught too much off guard in regards to the level of my optimism in regards to the anticipated CAGR, which is part of the reason that I like to consider the 200-WMA rather than the spot price, and we can see that so far, the 200-WMA has never failed to go up less than 20% in any year, yet since it is a lagging indicator, we still might be able to consider if the BTC spot price is staying above the 200-WMA more than 20%, then the 200-WMA is still likely to continue to go up at least 20% per year... and yeah, we don't sell at the 200-WMA, and we sell at spot price, so if possible, if we need the money, it is way better to be selling any BTC when the spot prices are way above the 200-WMA rather than close to the 200-WMA.  Right now spot prices are nearly 150% higher than the 200-WMA.

[SuperBitMan]

$MSTR treasury operations delivered a BTC Yield of 72.4%, a net benefit of ~136,965 BTC to our shareholders. At $107K per BTC, that equates to ~$14.66 billion for the year.


https://twitter.com/saylor/status/1869001572862378428?t=ZUvfUrnQ8zch0E4ITdGrCg&s=19

[Wind_FURY]

Nothing has stopped Microstrategy buying bitcoins, they are buying bitcoins regularly.

Yes, Nothing stopped MicroStrategy's buying bitcoins, they regularly bought bitcoins over time. Maybe their Bitcoin buying trend will continue in the future. Yesterday when Michael Saylor said they needed the green dot, Peter Schiff, the stupidest Bitcoin critic ever, made a post about him, maybe he did it as a mockery.

Today they purchased 15,350 bitcoins worth $1.5 billion.

 

They have bought Bitcoin for six weeks in a row, even after Bitcoin hit a new all-time high last night they bought $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin today. They are going to hit a milestone by consistently buying bitcoins over time. At the moment MicroStrategy needs only 61 thousand bitcoins to touch the 0.5 million bitcoin. Maybe they will reach this milestone in the next few weeks or a Month.

Thanks @pk, I made a mistake which I have corrected now.

 

Chad Saylor is doing the Chad move by front-running the United States government. If the governments from the different regions of the world actually start accumulating Bitcoin as a "reserve", Chad Saylor's "gamble" will be written in trading and investment books as one of the greatest risk-taking moments in history. Perhaps something like John D. Rockefeller with his massive oil pipelines bet or Cornelius Vanderbilt's risk on the rail road system.

Saylor perhaps isn't doing it for the money, he's doing it to prove a point?

👀

[Free Market Capitalist]

I recall that when Saylor first got into bitcoin, he was frequently proclaiming bitcoin is going to double every year, since that was what the history showed, yet in recent times, he got more realistic, in terms of expecting a CAGR that slowly goes down in the amount, so that even if we might be in the 70% territory for our current CAGR, he is expecting a CAGR of something like 29% by 2045, which seems reasonable as a kind of working parameter.

Yes, at least he has changed some of the things he said. As you say he is projecting more realistic expectations, and he is also no longer recommending the average joe to mortgage his house to buy bitcoin, for example. The last gaffe he made was about self-custody, but he soon recanted.

$MSTR treasury operations delivered a BTC Yield of 72.4%, a net benefit of ~136,965 BTC to our shareholders. At $107K per BTC, that equates to ~$14.66 billion for the year.

I have noticed it. When I bought the shares the BTC per basic share was 0.0011 or 0.0012. Now it is 0.00180263. It is noticeable.

If you noticed the share price is pretty stable despite the rise in bitcoin price, and that's because Saylor keeps selling shares through the ATM to buy bitcoin. According to the latest press release:

As previously disclosed, on October 30, 2024, MicroStrategy Incorporated (“MicroStrategy” or the “Company”) entered into a Sales Agreement...
 approximately $7.65 billion of Shares remained available for issuance and sale pursuant to the Sales Agreement.

Basically, of the $21B they planned to sell in 3 years with the ATM they have already sold $13.35B, which all indicates that they will have completed the target they originally planned to finish in 2026 by the first quarter of 2024. They also planned to raise $21B over three years with convertible notes but they are slower with them. In this case I think it is because the convertible notes compute as debt, while the ATM does not, you simply sell shares but instead of diluting the value of the share which is what happens in the rest of the companies, almost instantly increases the bitcoin yield. I don't think even Saylor expected the good reception of the ATM, which I seem to recall it is the hugest in history, and who knows how much he will be able to raise in 2025.

As a shareholder I don't mind if the stock stays stable while the bitcoin price goes up, because I get more BTC per share, and bitcoin is worth more and more. But I think when the stock goes up it's going to do like a X10 in no time.

Chad Saylor is doing the Chad move by front-running the United States government. If the governments from the different regions of the world actually start accumulating Bitcoin as a "reserve", Chad Saylor's "gamble" will be written in trading and investment books as one of the greatest risk-taking moments in history. Perhaps something like John D. Rockefeller with his massive oil pipelines bet or Cornelius Vanderbilt's risk on the rail road system.

Saylor perhaps isn't doing it for the money, he's doing it to prove a point?

👀

Something similar to Rockefeller or Vanderbilt I think, and he himself has talked about Rockefeller's example with oil to pose an analog with what he is doing with MSTR as a bitcoin treasury company.

But I think otherwise, no matter how much Trump issues an executive order to buy on the day he takes office, and subsequently Congress approves Lummis' proposal to buy 1M bitcoin in 5 years, that would mean buying a total of 200K bitcoins in 2025. Which added to the nearly 200K that USA has would make a total of 400K in 2025.

As of today MSTR has 439K and by January it will have 500K. This is huge I think. That is why I think that when the price of MSTR goes up it will be like a SpaceX rocket.

[Stablexcoin]

Michael Saylor doing his best.

$MSTR made it into the NASDAQ 100. 2025 will be a big year.



15 Billion Dollars for a private institution that's huge. How much do you think you've made this year through Micro Strategy, whether private or as a company?

[fillippone]

Here is a little update on MSTR metrics :




Red line: Sats per (fully diluted) share.
Blue line: Enterprise value of MSTR(Fully Diluted)/Bitcoin Holding.

Blue line is nosediving, this is why share is underperforming lately.

[SuperBitMan]

Here is a little update on MSTR metrics :




Red line: Sats per (fully diluted) share.
Blue line: Enterprise value of MSTR(Fully Diluted)/Bitcoin Holding.

Blue line is nosediving, this is why share is underperforming lately.

Wow, well talking about why the share is underperforming and how to improve, I know microstrategy is trying on communicating however they need to enhance more perception of Bitcoin holding, we all know that microstrategy's valuable is linked to Bitcoin so if the market shows a bad record of Bitcoin holding the stock will suffer so one of the ways to overcome these is by providing information about long term strategy for holding and accumulating Bitcoin, when ever there's a dip in Bitcoin microstrategy should capitalize on the opportunity of accumulating more Bitcoin with less cost, I think this will be of help.

[OmegaStarScream]

I stumbled upon this Tweet. I don't know who this person is, nor his qualifications ... but still, I would like us to have a conversation about the risks involved here, and in which scenario would MicroStrategy be forced to sell? I say forced because he seems to have very strong convictions about bitcoin and I don't really see him willingly selling.

https://x.com/JacobKinge/status/1869095781887553768

Thoughts? How bad could this actually go for both MSTR stock, as well as the bitcoin price if bitcoin falls under a certain price? (according to another tweet of this individual, that certain price is 17,000$)

[criptoevangelista]

I stumbled upon this Tweet. I don't know who this person is, nor his qualifications ... but still, I would like us to have a conversation about the risks involved here, and in which scenario would MicroStrategy be forced to sell? I say forced because he seems to have very strong convictions about bitcoin and I don't really see him willingly selling.

https://x.com/JacobKinge/status/1869095781887553768

Thoughts? How bad could this actually go for both MSTR stock, as well as the bitcoin price if bitcoin falls under a certain price? (according to another tweet of this individual, that certain price is 17,000$)

If Saylor is buying infinitely, I believe he knows something that we don't, like the store of value that nations intend to make using bitcoin (he probably knew this long before us) or something beyond that, even the basics, like the currency of countries being inflated and it's always worth getting into debt in fiat for bitcoins... But one thing is certain, he wouldn't buy so much without knowing something, even more so buying what is until then the "top of the market".

[diamondsurfer]

Just look at the price since this original post. Now it's in the QQQ

[JayJuanGee]

I stumbled upon this Tweet. I don't know who this person is, nor his qualifications ... but still, I would like us to have a conversation about the risks involved here, and in which scenario would MicroStrategy be forced to sell? I say forced because he seems to have very strong convictions about bitcoin and I don't really see him willingly selling.
https://x.com/JacobKinge/status/1869095781887553768
Thoughts? How bad could this actually go for both MSTR stock, as well as the bitcoin price if bitcoin falls under a certain price? (according to another tweet of this individual, that certain price is 17,000$)

Bitcoin is already known to have quite extreme corrections of 70% to 90%, and prior to 2022, the 200-WMA served as the bottom, and any spikes below the 200-WMA were short-lived.

In 2022 and into 2023, we have extended periods of right around 16 months below the 200-WMA that got as far as 35% below the 200-WMA at the peak dropping.

Right now the 200-WMA is $42.3k, and so 35% below the 200-WMA would be right around $27.5k. and that is right now.. the 200-WMA is continuing to go up by about $40 per day.. and you (or Jacob) are trying to consider an additional $10k correction ($17k is around 60% below the current 200-WMA) as if it were within a range of reasonable, and perhaps you are considering it likely since Saylor is using a kind of non-supportable and outrageous leverage to make his BTC purchases, but he isn't since he has the BTC to back the debt and the debt gets resolved as they go, and I doubt that his leverage is any greater than it was in 2022 when BTC prices likely needed to drop to $3k-ish in order for him to have to take action to collateralize his then outstanding debt.

Personally, I would think that if there were some issues with his custody, security or loss of coins, then there would be both loss of confidence, but also the shares and the debt would no longer be backed.

In any of the extreme scenarios, there are always possibilities that they could end up playing out and the contagion and the cascading of events can end up playing out in much worse ways than any of us were to project, yet in terms of any of our BTC investment practices, it seems way more healthy and rewarding to be accounting for more likely scenarios rather than extreme scenarios that are way less likely than they are being described to be.

I don't buy any proclamations that Saylor is smarter than the rest of us, even though he does have teams who likely have outlined a variety of contingency plans for a variety of negative scenarios, which likely involve continuing to buy bitcoin whether the price is high or low, and if they price is spiraling they may well keep buying until a certain point in which they might run out of capital to keep buying, so they might end up in a position where they are ONLY able to service their debt and surely the BTC may well be the last collateral that they would sell to the extent that the BTC is still available under such a calamitous set of events.  

I don't see a lot value in speculating in such extreme negative scenarios when the fact of the matter is that there are so many positive scenarios that are both playing out and more likely to play out, and a lot of folks having fun staying poor because they are spending so much time preparing for extremely low likely events that are not even very productive in entertaining.

[Free Market Capitalist]

I stumbled upon this Tweet. I don't know who this person is, nor his qualifications ... but still, I would like us to have a conversation about the risks involved here, and in which scenario would MicroStrategy be forced to sell? I say forced because he seems to have very strong convictions about bitcoin and I don't really see him willingly selling.

https://x.com/JacobKinge/status/1869095781887553768

Thoughts?

That the fool who is being smart is one of the many fools who are being smart and have no idea about MSTR's business model. Another Peter Schiff, who will still be saying the same thing years from now when the stock is worth $20K.

What he needs to explain is why MSTR didn't go bankrupt in the last bear market when the stock dropped to $17K and had debt convertible to bitcoin, unlike now.

Saylor himself has been asked repeatedly about that objection and he always says two things:

1. Those who make it don't understand their business model.
2. Obviously there is some possible scenario where MSTR could end badly, for example, if bitcoin ends up being worth 0. But it's just that those of us who invest in MSTR are bullish on bitcoin.

Under current conditions he would not be forced to sell bitcoin even if the price dropped to $10K next month.

[SuperBitMan]

very correct sir and Bitcoin is the future of financial freedom, freedom from government control.


https://twitter.com/saylor/status/1869353717809676534?t=P-fxkDkzk5OAda-A5YQowA&s=19

[Popkon6]

MicroStrategy's Saylor Is Still Buying Bitcoin

MicroStrategy Inc. co-founder and Chairman Michael Saylor says he wants to add more “intelligence leverage” for shareholders. He also talks about potentially advising the Trump administration on crypto and says he's still buying up Bitcoin. He speaks on "Bloomberg Open Interest.

Video and Source link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-12-18/microstrategy-s-saylor-is-still-buying-bitcoin-video

MicroStrategy has made their Bitcoin holdings more attractive and has maintained their buying intentions. They have announced that they will buy more Bitcoin in the future and that they will encourage the President to do so. Seeing this, many investors are also getting excited about investing in Bitcoin.
Michael Saylor has come live and revealed that he will buy more Bitcoin in the future and has given all the advice in this video on how to maintain their Bitcoin holdings for a long time.

[Free Market Capitalist]

Hey, OmegaStarScream, watch the 3 first minutes of the following video:

Fred Krueger - "I've Made A Fortune On Microstrategy" | Bitcoin Prediction

Guy talking is a PhD mathematician and successful businessman, who could still be wrong but I listen to him before I listen to Peter Schiff (who made that argument against MSTR first after the US elections).

[Zwei]

...

Fred Krueger - "I've Made A Fortune On Microstrategy" | Bitcoin Prediction

Guy talking is a PhD mathematician and successful businessman, who could still be wrong but I listen to him before I listen to Peter Schiff (who made that argument against MSTR first after the US elections).

that video was a pain to watch with that awfaull stock music in the background and the AI voice, but the guy made some good points.

i would not listen to Peter Schiff at all, he is a clown, i have never seen someone be so wrong so many times about bitcoin as him.

[SuperBitMan]

Top 10 Largest Corporate Holders of Bitcoin
Published on November 28, 2024,


https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/top-10-largest-corporate-holders-of-bitcoin/

MicroStrategy was the highest holder in November and till date they are still holding that position, microstrategy has huge faith in Bitcoin that's why they keep accumulating more and more Bitcoin without fear and i most say they are on the right track.

[avp2306]

Hey, OmegaStarScream, watch the 3 first minutes of the following video:

Fred Krueger - "I've Made A Fortune On Microstrategy" | Bitcoin Prediction

Guy talking is a PhD mathematician and successful businessman, who could still be wrong but I listen to him before I listen to Peter Schiff (who made that argument against MSTR first after the US elections).

He made a good explanation in that interview and he shows that how smart Michael Saylor and how good really smart Microstrategy for taking up their Bitcoin investment.

Peter Schiff is old traditional dude which is skeptical on things he see. Maybe the guy doesn't want to get out of his comfort zone and just want to focus on things easy for him. He's always negative about bitcoin movement and maybe worried to much on its price volatility that's why he remain to be negative dude and still ignore those good achievements made by Bitcoin.

Microstrategy would continue to earn success by their continuous accumulation of Bitcoin while Peter Schiff and other doubtful dudes will remain where they are on investment scene if they always think act like that.

[AirtelBuzz]

Top 10 Largest Corporate Holders of Bitcoin
Published on November 28, 2024,


https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/top-10-largest-corporate-holders-of-bitcoin/

November 28th has already passed and MicroStrategy has purchased Bitcoin a total of three times since November 28. They bought 15,400 Bitcoins on December 2nd, 21,550 Bitcoins on December 9th, and 15,350 Bitcoins on December 16th. So the amount of bitcoins you mentioned here is also wrong. Enter here to see how many bitcoins they have purchased, You can clearly see that they were able to accumulate 439,000 Bitcoins into their investment portfolio.
https://treasuries.bitbo.io/microstrategy/

MicroStrategy was the highest holder in November and till date they are still holding that position, microstrategy has huge faith in Bitcoin that's why they keep accumulating more and more Bitcoin without fear and i most say they are on the right track.

Of course they were the highest holders of Bitcoin, already surpassing China and the US Govt. Michael Saylor believes Bitcoin will reach even higher heights, which is why he continues to buy Bitcoin regularly despite many Bitcoin critics Mockery at him.