The UEFA Nations League 2020/2021 Discussion Thread

[buwaytress]

A bit disappointed with odds on these games tbh. Only Iceland has 12/1 but they're not as likely to pull off upsets as a year ago I think... and now people rate the Dutch team quite high, odds on them aren't good any longer.

Israel almost 5/1 vs Scotland is my pick for a value upset. Great guys and I love Robbo but even when they've won, they're typically low on creativity, which the Israelis have at times.

[1714494553]

1714494553

[big_daddy]

A bit disappointed with odds on these games tbh. Only Iceland has 12/1 but they're not as likely to pull off upsets as a year ago I think... and now people rate the Dutch team quite high, odds on them aren't good any longer.

Israel almost 5/1 vs Scotland is my pick for a value upset. Great guys and I love Robbo but even when they've won, they're typically low on creativity, which the Israelis have at times.

I saw your picks in the other thread, very interesting, same as my pick that I'm think to bet on -> Iceland to win against England, cause, why not 

[tomahawk9]

Nice OP, @tyKiwanuka 

Today, Germany - Spain, I have the spaniards AH +0,25 at 1.83 odds. A bit hard to predict, so my pick is based on the squad and possible starting XI  and IMO, Spain have the edge there, no?


[source]

I'm pretty sure about Kosovo win.<...>

same here, which is why I have Kosovo AH -1.00 at 1.71 odds, worst case i get my coins back, don't think Moldova could even get a draw today

[tyKiwanuka]

Today, Germany - Spain, I have the spaniards AH +0,25 at 1.83 odds. A bit hard to predict, so my pick is based on the squad and possible starting XI  and IMO, Spain have the edge there, no?

I'll go for Germany to win against Spain and Slovenia to win against Greece

I thought about going with Germany win as well, but somehow I don't like their expected defensive line-up. According to Kicker, which has some differences from the line-up @tomahawk9 posted:

Trapp - Ginter, Süle, Rüdiger - Kehrer, Gündogan, Kroos, Gosens - Havertz, Werner, L. Sané

Süle is still coming back from torn ACL, Ginter I don't like at all, Trapp will be nervous I guess and this is a new formation all in all. Offensively I like it very much, so the bts bet from @Trofo looks good. Germany rarely fails to score at home and with this defense Spain should find the back of the net at least once as well.

-

I think I saw already two guys picking Slovenia in here, but I think Greece will not lose today. They started all over again already during EC qualifications and were able to get three wins in a row (only against Finland, Armenia and Bosnia & Herzegovina, but still). And as we all know, Greece can play good defense, if they put their focus on it. I am having my doubts, if Slovenia will be able to get much going offensively. Looks very draw-ish game for me, maybe 0-0.

In general all games seem to be super hard to predict (long international break, motiviation, players missing etc.).

[Lucius]

Some information about match Croatia - Portugal about the missing players. Two very important players, Luka Modric and Ivan Rakitic, will certainly not play for Croatia - while Renato Sanchez will surely miss the match for Portugal. What is still in question is the appearance of Cristiano Ronaldo who is allegedly on antibiotics for a right foot infection and trains at a reduced intensity.

The first game after a long time, an empty stadium and maybe a lack of key players could make this game quite uninteresting - a match without a winner seems most likely to me.

[Trofo]

Some information about match Croatia - Portugal about the missing players. Two very important players, Luka Modric and Ivan Rakitic, will certainly not play for Croatia - while Renato Sanchez will surely miss the match for Portugal. What is still in question is the appearance of Cristiano Ronaldo who is allegedly on antibiotics for a right foot infection and trains at a reduced intensity.

The first game after a long time, an empty stadium and maybe a lack of key players could make this game quite uninteresting - a match without a winner seems most likely to me.

I have no fear for Croatia midfield, I even think that at this moment our reserve players will have a better game than what Modric and Rakitic would provide if they were available. Our midfield will consist of Brozovic (one of the best Inter players with great season), Pasalic (incredible season with Atalanta) and Vlasic (best player in CSKA Moscow, in incredible form). That midfield can take any team in the world without problems. We also have good wingers: Rebic (great performances for Milan after the break) and Perisic/Brekalo on other side. Persic could be tired after CL final but Brekalo had solid season as well.

I am concerned for our central striker position, Kramaric was never a real central striker more like false nine or attacking midfielder and Petkovic is totally out of form. Our defense could also have problems but midfield will be best part of our team as usual even without the experience of Modric and Rakitic.

[Juggy777]

Nice OP, @tyKiwanuka 

Today, Germany - Spain, I have the spaniards AH +0,25 at 1.83 odds. A bit hard to predict, so my pick is based on the squad and possible starting XI  and IMO, Spain have the edge there, no?


[source]

@tomahawk9 both the teams are equally strong and it’s very difficult to choose a winner, but since I have always supported Spain in international football therefore I’ll wager a small amount on them to win this fixture. Also I have a feeling that this match will be a low scoring one, because both the teams have excellent defenders, and experienced goal keepers.

[Trofo]

Also I have a feeling that this match will be a low scoring one, because both the teams have excellent defenders, and experienced goal keepers.

If that above gets to be actual line ups for this match I am placing extra high stake on both to score and sure hope you are wrong

I was busy and didn't read much articles about the teams and decided to just check line ups half an hour before the match. That graphic shows Trapp on goal for Germany while they have 2 best goalkeepers in the world, Ter Stegen and Neuer, and if they are not playing that can only go in my favor. Spain also starts with Garcia in defense who I consider more of playing defender than old school center defender. Then you can see Navas on right back who is in my mind still winger and Regullion on left back who is playing crazy attacking football. With those line ups I am taking both to score @1.75 for fifth (20%) of my bank (usual high stake bet for me is max 5%)

[efialtis]

For Slovenia vs Hellas (Greece) I wouldn't recommend going with HW - this is not because I am Greek.  

Here are my 2 cents on the match - Clock is ticking so let me do a real quick one.

Let‘s start with some stats/facts (more or less interesting and of any importance)

General:

Last match between these two teams was a friendly in 2012 and it ended in a 1-1 draw.

Greece has never lost to Slovenia (3-2-0)

4/5 of these matches ended with 2-3 goals

Slovenia:

5/8 of their last matches ended with N/G

6/10 of their last machtes ended with under 2.5 goals

Greece:

15/21 of their last matches ended with under 2.5 goals

15/23 of their last matches ended with N/G

4/5 of their last matches ended with 2-3 goals

My conclusion:

This is the duel between the two (theoretically) best teams in group B. The hosts will miss several players but at home, sooner or later they will take a risk (an opening win would be key). Greece on the other hand played some great football in the last matches under the new coach and really dominated the likes of Bosnia, Finland etc. To be honest – I haven‘t seen Greece playing such a nice ball (especially in the offense) for like 15 years. The „new“ Greek team has many options on offense and I feel they have what it takes to score here. As a result, I am going with BTS (against the stats I previously mentioned) @ 2.28 (FortuneJack), over 2 (asian) @ 2.07 and with some pocket money with the over 2.5 @ 2.85.

Good luck everybody!


For Germany vs Spain, I am expecting a low scoring affair and would suggest a bet on under but... since I never bet on unders, I am not risking anything here.

[buwaytress]

Nice call on Germany's defensive lineup, ty, I'm still curious as to why they did that, given the blazing form of their front line. Perhaps it's all about risk management on Day 1 against the strongest opponent in group.

I'm still uninterested in most of the odds, and probably willing to gamble with the upstarts in the groups. Kazakhstan odds are quite good for me today. Poland at almost 9/1 anyone?

[casperBGD]

For Slovenia vs Hellas (Greece) I wouldn't recommend going with HW - this is not because I am Greek.  

great analyses, but it the end, it was a boring match, that finished without any goals
expected more from Slovenia, but what a heck, Russia and Ukraine were enough last night for a successful evening, with all this BTC mess-around

tonight, i will play just on Netherlands and Belarus, will skip goals, since will probably not watch anything at all

^snip
With those line ups I am taking both to score @1.75 for fifth (20%) of my bank (usual high stake bet for me is max 5%)

@Trofo
did you make it till the end? it was a tough

[Trofo]

@Trofo
did you make it till the end? it was a tough

I did make it to the end but I must confess that I was a bit nervous as the time passed by and Spain couldn't score. That game should have been both to score in first half. In the end I had both to score on 3 multi tickets but I did not play that extra high stake since Spain defense was very different from those predicted line ups and much more defensive oriented.

I ended up in very nice profit with 2/3 multi tickets passing and if Kosovo managed a win I would have ended with best day ever. I got Russia both to score, Ukraine ML, Slovenia-Greece under 1.5 goals, Slovenia - Greace first half 0:0...

Going big today, probably on Netherlands since Poland is without Lewa and I will add few more games.

[Lucius]

I have no fear for Croatia midfield, I even think that at this moment our reserve players will have a better game than what Modric and Rakitic would provide if they were available. Our midfield will consist of Brozovic (one of the best Inter players with great season), Pasalic (incredible season with Atalanta) and Vlasic (best player in CSKA Moscow, in incredible form). That midfield can take any team in the world without problems. We also have good wingers: Rebic (great performances for Milan after the break) and Perisic/Brekalo on other side. Persic could be tired after CL final but Brekalo had solid season as well.

I am concerned for our central striker position, Kramaric was never a real central striker more like false nine or attacking midfielder and Petkovic is totally out of form. Our defense could also have problems but midfield will be best part of our team as usual even without the experience of Modric and Rakitic.

I will not say that Brozovic is not a good player, I think that everyone who follows Inter knows that - but it is also indisputable that his behavior outside the club harms both himself and the club in which he plays. Going through a red light under the influence of alcohol and attacking hospital staff again under the influence of alcohol in just one week put him on the list of players that Inter offers for sale. In addition to physical preparation, everyone knows how important it is for a player to be mentally ready for the game - and Brozovic is playing another game in his head at the moment.

At the age of 35, Modric is definitely at the end of his career, although he states that he would like to play in the 2022 World Cup as well. His absence is actually the absence of the main intelligence that Croatia has in the middle of the field - everyone knows that his millimeter-accurate balls have been crucial for some of the most important goals in recent years.

Of course, young players need to be introduced to the game, and they need to take responsibility - Pasalic and Vlasic are certainly the future of Croatian football. As for Perisic, he is playing for about 20 minutes in the Champions League final and I don't think he's tired - in fact he always gave 100% on the field and I don't think it will be any different this time either.


I have to correct myself - in a specific match, Portugal is of course the host.


And what about the Germany-Spain match, when someone scores a goal in 6 minutes of overtime, and in fact it was only 4 minutes then the disappointment is great. It is true that Spain went for all or nothing in the last 5 minutes, and that Ramos scored a goal that was annulled due to a foul - but the pressure eventually paid off.

[efialtis]

Very strange match SLO vs GRE yesterday - I lost but my feeling was right, Slovenia far from being capable to beat Greece - they actually didn't have a single opportunity for a goal while Greece missed several and dominated the whole match. Too bad we aren't able to take advantage of such easy matches the way we did years ago - still, Greece's new attacking line looks promising and I am curious to see how things will develop.

[Avirunes]

And what about the Germany-Spain match, when someone scores a goal in 6 minutes of overtime, and in fact it was only 4 minutes then the disappointment is great. It is true that Spain went for all or nothing in the last 5 minutes, and that Ramos scored a goal that was annulled due to a foul - but the pressure eventually paid off.

Both sides gave some chances to new faces. Good match and good goal by Werner to give Germany a lead in 51th minute finding himself a space and placing the ball out of reach for De Gea. Both sides displayed some good plays and good shots. De Gea also pulled off some good saves. Lucky for Spain to pull off a late equaliser in extra time.

It was a decent entertaining match for me.

[snipie]

I am a little bit busy lately and when I saw Germany 1-1 Spain in the news, I was like wth is going on? Wasn't aware about the date of competition!!
While seeing today's game, apart Italy and Scotland tho, I have no clue about the other teams performance especially in the first games 

[Trofo]

Netherlands did their job and won today. I had them on a small double with Norway - Austria both to score and that was it for my serious bets so solid day for me

I had small stake multi ticket with 6 games on it and it almost passed. Got screwed by Italy but I had them as handicap so at least odds were good. I hate it when I lose the ticket on small odds.

What to say about Zahavi, that guy is brilliant, I don't know if I ever watched him play but he brought me so much money. He is usually on loosing side but he scores every single game for both national team and club. I have been playing both to score on his games whenever I catch him and he never disappoints, too bad I placed that game on loosing multi today.


Some interesting games tomorrow. I will probably take some or all from the following:
Belgium to win @ 1.80 - Denmark is good team but Belgium has so much talent that they simply have to win, also good tip is both to score or all combinations of that two. I am expecting 3:1 for Belgium.
Sweden - France both to score - this one could be tricky but I have a feeling we will see some goals, this tip passed 4/6 times in their previous encounters
Croatia not to lose - this one I am taking for high stake if Ronaldo doesn't play and for beer money if he is in the team

[snipie]

Netherlands did their job and won today
-snip-

Followed the game a little bit in the second half, Netherlands was dominating the game, in addition to the goal, there was few missed opportunities. Dunno but I felt watching some random game and not a serious one..
Italy and Scotland results were disappointing too for me. These qualifications are weird.

Some interesting games tomorrow. I will probably take some or all from the following:
Belgium to win @ 1.80 - Denmark is good team but Belgium has so much talent that they simply have to win, also good tip is both to score or all combinations of that two. I am expecting 3:1 for Belgium.
Sweden - France both to score - this one could be tricky but I have a feeling we will see some goals, this tip passed 4/6 times in their previous encounters
Croatia not to lose - this one I am taking for high stake if Ronaldo doesn't play and for beer money if he is in the team

I would say Belgium, France and Portugal to win but seeing the overall qualifications results, I will not be surprised if nothing of this will happen lol

[buwaytress]

Scotland got it lucky I have to say. No clear shots on goal, basically a game the Israelis could have gone to win in the first half. Then the plucky bois got their penalty. Love Robbo of course so of course I'm happy haha. They got to do better than this though if they want to further their ambition past group stage.

[slaman29]

None of the matches really lived up to their billings I would say. Spain is my team and I think they did well with that point but both teams probably are happy with that draw, thinking they will finish top anyway. Sometimes might even be good in this sense to finish as the second team in the group, what do you guys think?