US 2020 Elections data, polls and bets

[figmentofmyass]

regardless of what the polls or betting odds say, i think a biden victory is becoming increasingly likely.

people are focusing too much on the inaccuracy of polls, the silent trump vote, and other themes from 2016. what they should be focusing on is the extremely high level of voter engagement heading into the 2020 election (based on voter registrations, early voter turnout, etc) which suggests a very high overall turnout is coming. many are expecting voter turnout to hit new records this year. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/10/2020-election-turnout/616640/

that puts things heavily in favor of biden and the democrats. i'm even starting to wonder if the dems will take a majority in the senate too.

However, it can also be argued that 2016 also had extremely high level of optimism for a Hillary victory. It was speculated to be close to a certainty by the pollsters.

i'm not talking about optimism for or expectation of a biden victory. the polls and betting odds are much closer this time around too.

what i'm talking about is voter engagement. there are reasons to believe that high voter turnout benefits democrats. consider these studies: https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/11156810/Fowler_gsas.harvard_0084L_10773.pdf?sequence=3&isAllowed=y

Study #1 examines the adoption of compulsory voting laws in Australia in order to assess the effects of near-universal turnout. When new, working class voters were brought the polls Australia saw significant changes in election results and public policy.

Study #2 explores the partisan consequences of marginal changes in voter turnout in the United States by comparing the partisan preferences of regular and marginal voters.  Across three independent tests and settings, marginal voters are significantly more supportive of the Democratic Party compared to regular voters.

nonvoters are more likely to be poor, young, nonwhite, women, less educated, etc---groups that are more likely to vote democrat, if they vote.

the other thing to consider is what actually happened in the 2018 elections---the only elections so far in the age of trump. we saw the biggest turnout of any mid-term election since 1914, and democrats took control of the house.

don't get me wrong. i don't think a biden victory is guaranteed, but i'm a lot more bullish on biden than i was a couple months ago.

[FinneysTrueVision]

Trump's chances continue to dwindle. FiveThirtyEight is only giving him a 12% chance of winning. Two days ago he was at 13% and a week ago he was at 14%. At the beginning of the month he was at 20%. This forecast is only considering the electoral votes each state represents and not the popular vote where Trump's adds are even lower.

[bryant.coleman]

Trump's chances continue to dwindle. FiveThirtyEight is only giving him a 12% chance of winning. Two days ago he was at 13% and a week ago he was at 14%. At the beginning of the month he was at 20%. This forecast is only considering the electoral votes each state represents and not the popular vote where Trump's adds are even lower.

Opinion polls never gave Trump a significant chance to win the 2020 elections at any point. However, there is a sharp difference in the odds being given by the opinion polls (FiveThirtyEight just aggregates poll data) and the odds being given by the gambling sites. According to the polls, the probability of a Trump win is within the 10%-15% range. On the other hand, according to the gambling sites it is 30%-35%.

[erikoy]

Opinion polls never gave Trump a significant chance to win the 2020 elections at any point. However, there is a sharp difference in the odds being given by the opinion polls (FiveThirtyEight just aggregates poll data) and the odds being given by the gambling sites. According to the polls, the probability of a Trump win is within the 10%-15% range. On the other hand, according to the gambling sites it is 30%-35%.

Surveys are paid to give to givre false data especially when election is near. This is the problem with these surveys that somehow seems not reliable especially here in our place.

I remember one time that when the election happen way back 2016 to which the survey releases different candidates every month of mosr favored by the people and that confuses everybodt because they know that they only like one candidate to which it shows during the election period or voting period where the result is landslide with the candidate favored the most.

[FinneysTrueVision]

Trump's chances continue to dwindle. FiveThirtyEight is only giving him a 12% chance of winning. Two days ago he was at 13% and a week ago he was at 14%. At the beginning of the month he was at 20%. This forecast is only considering the electoral votes each state represents and not the popular vote where Trump's adds are even lower.

Opinion polls never gave Trump a significant chance to win the 2020 elections at any point. However, there is a sharp difference in the odds being given by the opinion polls (FiveThirtyEight just aggregates poll data) and the odds being given by the gambling sites. According to the polls, the probability of a Trump win is within the 10%-15% range. On the other hand, according to the gambling sites it is 30%-35%.

FiveThirtyEight does more than just aggregating. Their 'election forecast' takes other factors into consideration. According to their site: Our model relies mainly on state polls, which it combines with demographic, economic and other data to forecast what will happen on Election Day.

In 2016 they gave Trump a better chance than anybody else. Many people on the left got upset when they said Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton.

Prediction markets and casinos give Trump a better chance because a lot of early money was put on him. At the beginning of the year it was assumed that he would have an easy re-election. Then the pandemic happened and his response to it was a complete disaster. If you only look at recent weeks then we can see that this is more reflective of our current reality. A lot more people are betting on Biden and those numbers are starting to catch up to the odds we're seeing from pollsters.

[bryant.coleman]

FiveThirtyEight does more than just aggregating. Their 'election forecast' takes other factors into consideration. According to their site: Our model relies mainly on state polls, which it combines with demographic, economic and other data to forecast what will happen on Election Day.

In 2016 they gave Trump a better chance than anybody else. Many people on the left got upset when they said Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton.

Prediction markets and casinos give Trump a better chance because a lot of early money was put on him. At the beginning of the year it was assumed that he would have an easy re-election. Then the pandemic happened and his response to it was a complete disaster. If you only look at recent weeks then we can see that this is more reflective of our current reality. A lot more people are betting on Biden and those numbers are starting to catch up to the odds we're seeing from pollsters.

One of the most important factors this time is the turnout. A few days back, I was told that almost 28 million voters have cast their ballot, through early voting. If we assume that the turnout is the same as 2016, then 20% of the votes have been already cast. But this time, there is evidence to prove that Republicans are intentionally waiting for the election day. The only thing I want to say at this point is that... it is going to be very messy, when they start counting the votes.

[DrG]

It appears that the Ukraine and China connection issue on Biden has caused Trump's odds to move into his favor. Will this movement continue for the final days until election day hehehe?

https://nypost.com/2020/10/14/email-reveals-how-hunter-biden-introduced-ukrainian-biz-man-to-dad/

Also, why are the Democrats very insistent that Russia is the enemy and not China? I speculate China will unofficially rule all over the world if the winner is Biden.

It has been the narrative goal of the media at large for the past decade or so. Anything critical of China is quickly censored or swept under the rug. Remember the whole China dogfood melamine discovery back in 2007? Probably 90% of voters won't even keep that in the back of their heads. Apparently Russian trolls on Facebook are enough to sway the vote of Americas 

China has moved on from dogfood, now putting hazardous materials into food meant for human consumption that it sells to India. I can see Stalin and Mao siting at a tea party in Hell 

[bbc.reporter]

@DrG. Also, the real issue of China as the source of the coronavirus are not being printed by the news anymore. I also have never heard of a Democrat that demanded an international investigation on China for the possibilty of causing this global pandemic.

China and Chinese companies will certainly be very happy on a Biden victory hehe.

[erikoy]

@DrG. Also, the real issue of China as the source of the coronavirus are not being printed by the news anymore. I also have never heard of a Democrat that demanded an international investigation on China for the possibilty of causing this global pandemic.

China and Chinese companies will certainly be very happy on a Biden victory hehe.

Well, if that Biden could win. However, I do believe more on Trump because he can do influence other people aside from his existing supporters because of his current position as the powerful person their country.

If Trump knows well how to influence the people then high chance he could get elected again. Besides I have never know Biden well and not a clue if he had also be an outstanding official as a vice president in their country. Well only the people of america can answer this through election day.

[DrG]

@DrG. Also, the real issue of China as the source of the coronavirus are not being printed by the news anymore. I also have never heard of a Democrat that demanded an international investigation on China for the possibilty of causing this global pandemic.

China and Chinese companies will certainly be very happy on a Biden victory hehe.

Even if you took China's word at face value and believe they did everything in their power to control the outflow of the virus (stop laughing), the media is completely silent about things like Feinstein having her aide of over a decade stealing intelligence for China. This is not even a conspiracy, this is a case that has formal prosecution in the legal system. China is also the number one cyber security threat to US infrastructure. The media happily reports of BTC extortion threats from Russians but is completely silent on a national news level about the NYPD officer who was spying for the CCP.

In my field of medicine, this would be like counseling a patient about their diabetes while they have a open femur fracture. Both are issues, one just seems to carry more weight and seems agenda driven. When was the last time you worried about lead in your Russian cookware?

[FinneysTrueVision]

Trump has no chance of winning the popular vote. It's all going to come down to a few swing states and right now Biden is ahead in the polls in all of them except Ohio, Georgia and Texas. In Ohio it's a tie and in Georgia, Trump is only favored by 0.2%. Texas is likely to go for Trump where he is leading by 3 points.

All of the stuff about China and Russia is irrelevant to voters. The media likes to make a big deal about Russia and now they're also trying to make China into the boogeyman but Americans really only care about domestic issues.

Also, why are the Democrats very insistent that Russia is the enemy and not China? I speculate China will unofficially rule all over the world if the winner is Biden.

Russia used to be the Republicans favorite punching bag but now it seems they have fallen in love with Putin because he tried to help Trump win.

[proTECH77]

The way the campaign rally is going show that the game will soon end and the winner will be congratulate just the way he was congratulated in 2016. Trump is playing the game well that will make him a winner soon because he is use to the game. It will be hard for Biden to win this game because the way the game is going show that Trump will surely win the game as usual.
US citizen are set to celebrate the winner of the game since the game was not rig like the way it ended 2016 that make Trump the president of US. The way the match is going Trump will surely win the game.

[celot]

The way the campaign rally is going show that the game will soon end and the winner will be congratulate just the way he was congratulated in 2016. Trump is playing the game well that will make him a winner soon because he is use to the game. It will be hard for Biden to win this game because the way the game is going show that Trump will surely win the game as usual.
US citizen are set to celebrate the winner of the game since the game was not rig like the way it ended 2016 that make Trump the president of US. The way the match is going Trump will surely win the game.

Donald Trump playing well game during the campaign, he even made statement to fight China and said the United States would be destroyed if it cooperated with China, of course this was the most influential to make the public sympathetic and want to vote for him than his toughest rival Joe Bidden who popularized the issue of Muslims in the United States, it was clear that five years earlier, Trump had not experienced any obstacles or even controversial decisions against Muslims in the United States. The same result five years ago when Trump won easily will also happen later, Joe Bidden is not a very influential opponent for Trump and will not be able to fight the prestige that Donald Trump has built over the previous five years, maybe the percentage is around 70% to 30%. for Trump's victory in this election against Joe Bidden.

[hd49728]

Trump has no chance of winning the popular vote. It's all going to come down to a few swing states and right now Biden is ahead in the polls in all of them except Ohio, Georgia and Texas. In Ohio it's a tie and in Georgia, Trump is only favored by 0.2%. Texas is likely to go for Trump where he is leading by 3 points.

All of the stuff about China and Russia is irrelevant to voters. The media likes to make a big deal about Russia and now they're also trying to make China into the boogeyman but Americans really only care about domestic issues.

You can not believe in poll results if you don't know about their data collection methodology and how representative for all population in USA the polls can have. About 10 days and the Election day and few hours or days later can help us to know the quality and correctness of those polls that are used by newspapers.

Despite of debates with election results from Biden or Trump, the early result after Election day and give us better view on the news, polls, and the choices of USA. citizens.

[FinneysTrueVision]

You can not believe in poll results if you don't know about their data collection methodology and how representative for all population in USA the polls can have. About 10 days and the Election day and few hours or days later can help us to know the quality and correctness of those polls that are used by newspapers.

Despite of debates with election results from Biden or Trump, the early result after Election day and give us better view on the news, polls, and the choices of USA. citizens.

We have historical data to compare them to. You can't just discount polls because you don't like them. Of course they can't be 100% accurate especially in a country of over 300 million people with a diverse population. What we have seen in recent years elections is that the more data we have, the more accurate the polls have been at predicting the outcome of elections. Statistician Nate Silver gained notoriety for accurately predicting how 49 of 50 states would vote in 2008 and in 2012 he was 100% accurate. His blog FiveThiryEight has also had a very high accuracy rate at predicting Senate and House races.

There is always a tiny possibility that Trump can pull out a victory by winning a bunch of swing states by less then 1 percent as long as he has a non-zero chance, like he did in 2016. Barring something strange happening, like the Commey letter in 2016, I believe the election will play out the way the polls are predicting.

[figmentofmyass]

There is always a tiny possibility that Trump can pull out a victory by winning a bunch of swing states by less then 1 percent as long as he has a non-zero chance, like he did in 2016. Barring something strange happening, like the Commey letter in 2016, I believe the election will play out the way the polls are predicting.

tiny would be an exaggeration. fivethirtyeight puts it at 13%. basically the same odds as holding overcards on the turn and drawing to a pair on the river.



i can't tell you how many thousands of times my opponent rivered an ace or queen there! it definitely happens.

i also think fivethirtyeight is slightly undervaluing trump. the betting markets have him ~ 33%. i'd put him somewhere in the middle of the two. 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 maybe.

[FinneysTrueVision]

There is always a tiny possibility that Trump can pull out a victory by winning a bunch of swing states by less then 1 percent as long as he has a non-zero chance, like he did in 2016. Barring something strange happening, like the Commey letter in 2016, I believe the election will play out the way the polls are predicting.

tiny would be an exaggeration. fivethirtyeight puts it at 13%. basically the same odds as holding overcards on the turn and drawing to a pair on the river.

https://i.imgur.com/mM9Sq99.jpg
i can't tell you how many thousands of times my opponent rivered an ace or queen there! it definitely happens.

i also think fivethirtyeight is slightly undervaluing trump. the betting markets have him ~ 33%. i'd put him somewhere in the middle of the two. 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 maybe.

The presidential election isn't as simple as a game of cards. There is a lot of states involved and the odds will be continuously shifting on election night. Right now Texas is the state with one of the slimmest margins. Trump is only ahead by half a percent. If he loses Texas his odds go down to zero. Even if he manages to hold Texas and flip a few states that he is currently losing in the polls it doesn't improve his odds by that much.

[figmentofmyass]

tiny would be an exaggeration. fivethirtyeight puts it at 13%. basically the same odds as holding overcards on the turn and drawing to a pair on the river.

https://i.imgur.com/mM9Sq99.jpg

i can't tell you how many thousands of times my opponent rivered an ace or queen there! it definitely happens.

i also think fivethirtyeight is slightly undervaluing trump. the betting markets have him ~ 33%. i'd put him somewhere in the middle of the two. 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 maybe.

The presidential election isn't as simple as a game of cards.

who says poker is simple? hold 'em involves many billions of possible hand combinations.

anyway, it was just an analogy for fivethirtyeight's position that trump had a 13% chance of winning. unlikely, but certainly not impossible or even that much of a long shot.

There is a lot of states involved and the odds will be continuously shifting on election night. Right now Texas is the state with one of the slimmest margins. Trump is only ahead by half a percent. If he loses Texas his odds go down to zero. Even if he manages to hold Texas and flip a few states that he is currently losing in the polls it doesn't improve his odds by that much.

fivethirtyeight accounts for all of that. their odds are based on simulating the election 40k times, with the forecast updating every time a new poll comes in.

[kryptqnick]

It's slightly more than a week before the elections, and the odds clearly favor Biden. I'll be very surprised if Trump actually manages to win this one. But I'll also be surprised if he does not do everything he can to convince people that the elections were rigged. He's not shutting up about voting by mail being fraudulent, ignoring the research that strongly suggests otherwise. Moreover, the election night "results" might show that Trump actually won because way more Democrats than Republicans intend to vote by mail, so their votes won't be counted that fast.  This can spark some protests and recounting of votes in some states, I believe, but Biden has got to win this one in the end. I placed my bet on the Democratic Party winning a while ago on Sportsbet.io, and the odds favor this party even more these days:

[jostorres]

The fact that Trump failed to find any dirt on Biden or tried to actually make him look like Hillary Clinton, an unwanted even by democrats, created the biggest trouble for him, plus before this elections Trump was unknown whereas now he has 4 years of presidency so he can't lie about what he "will do" because he did what he did and you know him.

So, the odds of him winning being very low is right, 13% is quite low as well, so I would say it is not a shock that people assume Trump will be losing this election is not that shocking, it is totally understandable. However this is a two person election (well third parties would never win but they are there too) so obviously even though Trump has a tiny 13% chance that still obviously means he has a chance, no matter how small he is still there.