Presidential debates

[Spendulus]

Yeah that's my mistake. I meant the world wide case count that's like 30M+, not just the U.S. case count.

Point being, there are a lot more cases than are confirmed so that drives the fatality rate down from the confirmed case fatality rate.

Ok, I'll play along, even though it's really getting off the topic. 10% of US population is 33 million. AFAIK there have been antibody tests in some locations showing rates up to 20% so let's make it 50 million total or ~15% of population.

50 million times 0.13% = 65 thousand deaths. We have 3+ times as many deaths or 0.4-0.5% fatality rate and that's based on a fairly optimistic assumption above.

Now can we accept that sacrificing people for a TV debate is just not right.

Be careful about the exact terms and their meaning...

https://sci-hub.se/downloads/2020-08-13/66/10.1017@dmp.2020.298.pdf#view=FitH

[suchmoon]

Be careful about the exact terms and their meaning...

https://sci-hub.se/downloads/2020-08-13/66/10.1017@dmp.2020.298.pdf#view=FitH

Feel free to provide exact terms of your 0.13% claim, preferably in an appropriate thread.

[Gyfts]

Yeah that's my mistake. I meant the world wide case count that's like 30M+, not just the U.S. case count.

Point being, there are a lot more cases than are confirmed so that drives the fatality rate down from the confirmed case fatality rate.

Ok, I'll play along, even though it's really getting off the topic. 10% of US population is 33 million. AFAIK there have been antibody tests in some locations showing rates up to 20% so let's make it 50 million total or ~15% of population.

50 million times 0.13% = 65 thousand deaths. We have 3+ times as many deaths or 0.4-0.5% fatality rate and that's based on a fairly optimistic assumption above.

Now can we accept that sacrificing people for a TV debate is just not right.

Why are you under the impression that I believe COVID has a 0.13 fatality rate? We need a randomized antibody test to predict the true number of cases and even that may not do it because infection rates vary around the country.

My personal belief, probably .3-.5 percent overall.

[suchmoon]

Why are you under the impression that I believe COVID has a 0.13 fatality rate? We need a randomized antibody test to predict the true number of cases and even that may not do it because infection rates vary around the country.

My personal belief, probably .3-.5 percent overall.

I'm sorry, the 0.13% comes from Spendulus who still hasn't explained how he came up with that.

0.5% is quite optimistic but I wouldn't argue with that absent better data.

[eddie13]

I believe that the rates of Covid being the SOLE cause of death to be infinitesimally small..

[TwitchySeal]

I believe that the rates of Covid being the SOLE cause of death to be infinitesimally small..

Yeah that's how viruses (or any deadly disease) work.  Nobody died SOLEY from covid.

[af_newbie]

0.13% mortality

I don't even want to know what part of your anatomy you pulled that out of because it doesn't pass the smell test.

212000/0.0013 = half of the US population had COVID-19 and recovered?

deaths / population

212k / 336,000k does not yield .13 percent, but 0.06%.

I'll find the reference.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

The numbers you are looking for are:

217,658/7,831,355 or 2.78%

as of Oct 8th.

mortality of an infection=deaths/# of infections

That's the confirmed case fatality rate. You can't get the mortality of a disease if you don't know how many people have it, and WHO came out and said they think that 10% of the population has gotten COVID-19, meaning over 700 million cases, not 7 million.

What WHO "thinks" is irrelevant.  Mortality rate is always reported using available data. Whether it is cancer cases or influenza infections.

Of course you have people who had COVID-19, have recovered and were not counted in the number of infections.  Just like we have undetected cancers and remissions. Also, we are not including infected/untested people who died in accidents, or had strokes.

The mortality rate of an ongoing disease is a moving target and can change at any moment.  All you can do is report mortality at a specific date, with the available data.  Anything else should be cordially dismissed.

[PrimeNumber7]

(trying to get this thread back on topic.....)

Virtual debates don't work well but even if they end up doing a virtual debate, Trump isn't going to back out. He needs it way more than Joe Biden does.

I thought an outdoor debate would be a good alternative too. If Trump tests negative, have the debate outdoors to prevent further spread.

The 2nd presidential debate has been canceled by the "Commission on Presidential Debates" who has hosted Presidential debates over the last generation.

IMO moving the debate to being "virtual" was intended to help Biden who would be able to use a teleprompter, and the moderator would be able to interrupt Trump when he is saying something they don't like. It was also intended to serve as propaganda to further the narrative that covid is so dangerous that someone infected cannot be in the same room, no matter how large as others who have not been infected yet.

Traditionally, the rules of the debate, including the timing and location have been agreed to by both candidates ahead of time, including the 2nd debate prior to the debate commission unilaterally changing the venue/rules.

There is no rule that says the "Commission on Presidential Debates" needs to host the debate, or even that there needs to be a moderator. The WSJ published an article arguing that Trump and Biden should debate without a moderator, and that each candidate can choose the questions that are asked to the other, and can talk about whatever they want when they are answering the questions. This would ensure both candidates would be asked tough questions

[TwitchySeal]

IMO moving the debate to being "virtual" was intended to help Biden who would be able to use a teleprompter, and the moderator would be able to interrupt Trump when he is saying something they don't like. It was also intended to serve as propaganda to further the narrative that covid is so dangerous that someone infected cannot be in the same room, no matter how large as others who have not been infected yet.

You really believe this stuff you're typing?

The debate was virtual because Trump tested positive for covid.  The debate was cancelled because Trump didn't think he'd get a political win out of it - so he refused to participate.

The fact that Trump and his family/team have a history of simply ignoring local laws and guidelines to prevent the spread of the virus doesn't help either.

So yeah, it was to help Biden, and literally every other person that would've had to come into contact with team "don't worry about it".

[PrimeNumber7]

IMO moving the debate to being "virtual" was intended to help Biden who would be able to use a teleprompter, and the moderator would be able to interrupt Trump when he is saying something they don't like. It was also intended to serve as propaganda to further the narrative that covid is so dangerous that someone infected cannot be in the same room, no matter how large as others who have not been infected yet.

You really believe this stuff you're typing?

The debate was virtual because Trump tested positive for covid.

Trump has been cleared by his doctor that he is no longer contagious. The CDC has recommonded that people isolate themselves for 10 days following the onset of symptoms, assuming by the end of the 10 days, they have been fever free for 24 hours without the use of fervor reducing medicine, and other symptoms have improved. Trump first had symptoms on October 1 (his test results came back later that night, or early Oct 2 in some parts of the Country). The second debate had been scheduled fro October 15, which is 4 days after Trump would be able to no longer have to isolate according to CDC guidelines.

[suchmoon]

You really believe this stuff you're typing?

I'd call it "rats in a sinking boat" but that would be some stupid-ass rats. Captain Trump choppered out a long time ago but not before thoroughly sabotaging it. Not sure what they're doing here still defending his nonsense.

[Gyfts]

IMO moving the debate to being "virtual" was intended to help Biden who would be able to use a teleprompter, and the moderator would be able to interrupt Trump when he is saying something they don't like. It was also intended to serve as propaganda to further the narrative that covid is so dangerous that someone infected cannot be in the same room, no matter how large as others who have not been infected yet.

You really believe this stuff you're typing?

The debate was virtual because Trump tested positive for covid.  The debate was cancelled because Trump didn't think he'd get a political win out of it - so he refused to participate.

The fact that Trump and his family/team have a history of simply ignoring local laws and guidelines to prevent the spread of the virus doesn't help either.

So yeah, it was to help Biden, and literally every other person that would've had to come into contact with team "don't worry about it".

What's wrong with delaying the debate a couple days, or making the requirement of having both candidates tested by the Cleveland Clinic prior to stepping on stage with each other? What about holding the debate outdoors or the candidates standing 12 feet apart from each other with glass separation like the VP debate? Virtual debates are so stupid. There are so many ways you could make things safe.

I also think Trump is a moron for skipping the virtual debate but oh well.

[PrimeNumber7]

I also think Trump is a moron for skipping the virtual debate but oh well.

Trump's campaign never formally notified the commission on Presidential debates he was not going to participate. It was unilaterally cancelled.

I don't think Trump should debate Biden virtually. As I mentioned before, Biden would have the opportunity to use a teleprompter, and Trump needs to show America how inept Biden is. There are a lot of lessons that Trump should have learned from the last debate, that Trump could take advantage of in order to make Biden's poll numbers tank upon debating him. Biden using a teleprompter will make Biden look more competitant than he is.

[TwitchySeal]

I also think Trump is a moron for skipping the virtual debate but oh well.

Trump's campaign never formally notified the commission on Presidential debates he was not going to participate. It was unilaterally cancelled.

Yeah, that's the line the Trump campaign is taking "They cancelled it, not us!"  Trump said he wouldn't do it though, he's the one that backed out.  I'm sure it's no coincidence that he suffered politically after the last debate and things have only gotten worse for him since then.  I suspect the measures they were going to put in place to prevent the second debate devolving into a train wreck like the first would've resulted in much of the same things he's complaining about it being a virtual debate.  He simply doesn't have the self control to restrain himself enough to have a civil debate without guard rails in place for him like a child.

[Spendulus]

I also think Trump is a moron for skipping the virtual debate but oh well.

Trump's campaign never formally notified the commission on Presidential debates he was not going to participate. It was unilaterally cancelled.

I don't think Trump should debate Biden virtually. As I mentioned before, Biden would have the opportunity to use a teleprompter, and Trump needs to show America how inept Biden is. There are a lot of lessons that Trump should have learned from the last debate, that Trump could take advantage of in order to make Biden's poll numbers tank upon debating him. Biden using a teleprompter will make Biden look more competitant than he is.

This problem is framed deceptively. Let me explain.

It's totally possible to have a virtual debate with observers from the opposite team in the room with each debater. These could easily validate that no notes were being passed or teleprompters used. If Trump refused the 2nd debate it only proves that the Biden side would not stand these safeguards.

I think it was Gingrich who suggested they could both go to a local TV station as venues.

My personal opinion, the two can debate each other anytime, any way they want to. The "Debate Comm" can be tossed in the trash heap, if it becomes counter productive. Which now does seem to be the case.

SIDE NOTE: With the advances in AI and image processing, soon if not already, it gonna be pretty hard to trust them videos...

[suchmoon]

My personal opinion, the two can debate each other anytime, any way they want to. The "Debate Comm" can be tossed in the trash heap, if it becomes counter productive. Which now does seem to be the case.

They would never agree about the rules, moderator, etc. The commission was working fine for decades until Trump decided to torpedo himself with his antics in the first debate and the COVID-19 denialism. Insisting on in-person debate during a pandemic is ludicrous, he sounds like one of those old-school "business people" demanding a fax because they can't figure out e-mail. And the teleprompter nonsense is nonsense. Put a few more cameras around them if you need to, where are they going to hide the teleprompter? If you're going down that far the conspiracy rabbit hole then you can't probably trust that they're not using some magic teleprompter even when they're on the same stage.

[Spendulus]

My personal opinion, the two can debate each other anytime, any way they want to. The "Debate Comm" can be tossed in the trash heap, if it becomes counter productive. Which now does seem to be the case.

They would never agree about the rules, moderator, etc. The commission was working fine for decades until Trump decided to torpedo himself with his antics in the first debate and the COVID-19 denialism. Insisting on in-person debate during a pandemic is ludicrous, he sounds like one of those old-school "business people" demanding a fax because they can't figure out e-mail. And the teleprompter nonsense is nonsense. Put a few more cameras around them if you need to, where are they going to hide the teleprompter? If you're going down that far the conspiracy rabbit hole then you can't probably trust that they're not using some magic teleprompter even when they're on the same stage.

Well, there's a totally equally valid set of arguments from the Trump camp, and together this "Is what it is." It doesn't help to blame one or the other.

My opinion is that Biden had far more to gain from engineering no more debates. Given his state of mental bliss, he really needed a teleprompter or an ear prompt.

But if you want to think that Trump did a stupid thing, okay, then, that's what we've got.

The interpretation of the events as "Trump did yet another stupid thing and that proves Tump does stupid things and that's why we can't have Trump as president because he'll do stupid things and now he's going down the tubes" doesn't really matter.

[suchmoon]

My opinion is that Biden had far more to gain from engineering no more debates. Given his state of mental bliss, he really needed a teleprompter or an ear prompt.

This might have made some sense before the first debate. After that fiasco it's not quite clear if Trump could win a debate against an empty box of Cheerios and he seemed very happy to have found an excuse to back out of the second debate, which was supposed to be a town hall - a format that he failed miserably at a few weeks prior.

[Spendulus]

My opinion is that Biden had far more to gain from engineering no more debates. Given his state of mental bliss, he really needed a teleprompter or an ear prompt.

This might have made some sense before the first debate. After that fiasco it's not quite clear if Trump could win a debate against an empty box of Cheerios and he seemed very happy to have found an excuse to back out of the second debate, which was supposed to be a town hall - a format that he failed miserably at a few weeks prior.

It's a mess, that's for sure.

The real loser though is the Debate Commission. The creation of unacceptable formats which one contender refused to work with is their doing.

[Spendulus]

My opinion is that Biden had far more to gain from engineering no more debates. Given his state of mental bliss, he really needed a teleprompter or an ear prompt.

This might have made some sense before the first debate. After that fiasco it's not quite clear if Trump could win a debate against an empty box of Cheerios and he seemed very happy to have found an excuse to back out of the second debate, which was supposed to be a town hall - a format that he failed miserably at a few weeks prior.

Okay, I'm reversing my position on hearing that Biden has been talking about his run for the Senate. This is fucking ridiculously embarrassing. Give him to teleprompter and the virtual debate and tell him to shut up and read the prompter.

How much longer is this going on?