We are also working in another similar tool that will calculate the amount of btc needed to get the "Fuck you money" status
let's see if that works.
Is the "Fuck you money" tool supposed to show how much bitcoin you need to possess for early retirement or is it something different entirely?
There might be an ability to tailorize your fuck you status an the various presumptions, so even though
my latest table had not been updated since late 2025, you can still see how the historical trend has worked out, which has largely been the requirement of fewer and fewer bitcoin to sustain an income at any of the given presumed income levels in the charts... So the first category is $80k per year (presuming a 10% withdrawal rate and $800k valuation at the 200-WMA level), the second category is a traditional 4% withdrawal rate which would then require $2 million valued at the 200-WMA, and then the third category is a presumptive filthy rich status at $100 million valuation at the 200-WMA level.
Of course, with an actual fuck you status tool, then guys could make their own presumptions about what they might need, yet the tools main function would be to project the 200-WMA forward to perhaps 2157 or perhaps further, and then provide an interface to be able to see how the numbers might change if the guys change their own presumptions about how much they feel that they need. The historical data is more locked in and would be similar to the locked in data that is already contained in the sustainable withdrawal tool, yet it seems that being able to project forward might be helpful, even if there might not be complete agreement on the parameters, presumptions and framework that the tool uses, yet in the past several years I have been honing in more and more on ways to valuate bitcoin holdings based on the 200-WMA and attempts to project that forward since I think that the 200-WMA provides greater assurances, even though quite a few guys seem to like to fight with the use of the 200-WMA since concededly we are actually buying and selling at spot price and not based on the 200-WMA - which still is not guaranteed to ongoingly go up, even though so far historically in bitcoins time on this earth, the 200-WMA has tended upward, with its lowest annualized upward performance in the ballpark of 18% during the June 2022 to October 2023 period, which happened to be the so far worst performance period of the BTC price relative to the 200-WMA.. getting as low as
36% below the 200-WMA on November 22 when the BTC price got down as low as $15,479, and also having a period of nearly 9 weeks from November 6, 2022 to January 16, 2023 that the BTC spot price was more than 20% below the 200-WMA..
That might be a complicated thing to calculate. Inflation is certainly going to eat up and continue devaluing our fiat currencies for every year we are alive.
The combination of the already existing sustainable withdrawal tool and the hypothetical fuck you status tool that does not quite exist, yet, may or may not end up sufficiently capturing the debasement of the dollar, and surely sometimes we might have to include some of our own presumptions, which I personally have come to thinking that the use of the 200-WMA (as a bottom price, that is not always the complete bottom) is a more fair way of valuating bitcoin and not getting caught up on great variations in the BTC spot price... and at the same time with the sustainable withdrawal tool, I like to proclaim that once a guy locks himself into a sustainable withdrawal amount that is soundly calculated, then he likely is able to raise the dollar value that he is sustainably withdrawing by 7% per year in order to attempt to account for anticipated ongoing debasement of the dollar.
In the end, guys are responsible for their own calculations of valuation, what they believe to be sustainable and even how much (if any) they believe that they might be able to increase their withdrawal rate (based on the dollar or otherwise?) in order to keep their system of withdrawal going in a perpetual matter and not necessarily depleting the principle, so in that regard, in theory (and probably in practice) guys need to make sure that however much they might be withdrawing from their bitcoin holdings is less than the amount that on average the bitcoin is appreciating, even though from year to year the numbers might not work out... and personally, I prefer to try to have an extra cushion so that if a guy might consider in ideal circumstances when the BTC price is at least 25% above the 200-WMA, he might ONLY need 13 bitcoin to sustainably withdraw $80k and give himself a 7% raise in dollars each year, yet if the BTC price is spending a lot of time at or below the 200-WMA then either he needs to reduce his withdrawal rate or to make sure that he has enough bitcoin to cover such a situation, such as
right now he would need at least 18.8 bitcoin to cover a sustainable $80k per year ($6,666 per month) withdrawal rate, even though if the BTC price were more than 25% above the 200-WMA he would ONLY need 13 BTC to sustain the same withdrawal rate. So in that regard, it may well be better to have and maintain a higher quantity of BTC or alternatively withdraw at a lower rate, or maybe even don't withdraw at all until the 200-WMA (and/or BTC spot price) rises high enough to justify the target-preferred withdrawal rate level.
We will require more and more units of fiat as purchasing power decreases.
Personally, I think that guys can figure out these kinds of presumptions especially if they are starting to reach high enough levels of BTC that they might be able to sustainably withdraw.
It seems that on a quite regular basis, I witness guys getting confused by sustainable withdrawal ideas, so there are a lot of folks who just calculate how many years that they expect to need whatever level of income that they believe that they need and then they will divide the whole amount by that and deplete their whole bitcoin holdings based on those kinds of presumptions, which surely is not the way that I try to advocate, even though in the end guys can do whatever they like and they may or may not find uses for either the sustainable withdrawal tool or even a potentially future available fuck you status tool.. yet some guys might not completely get the whole idea of sustainable withdrawal, yet either or both of the tools might still help them to think through how much bitcoin that they believe that they need to meet their own objectives.
At the same time, it's pretty difficult to predict what bitcoin will be worth 10 or 20 years from now and how much it will change, if at all. History has shown us that BTC's value will go up but that's assuming we see the same or increased demand.
I have always wondered what would happen if a better form of bitcoin is created in the future...
I think projecting the 200-WMA with an increasing diminishing return is a good tool, while at the same time, sure we might have to deal with future events that might change either how we think about bitcoin and/or if we might feel that we need to migrate over to some other better and/or more improved (or less damaged) bitcoin.
