OSCARS 2021- Nominees, Odds and Predictions!

[oHnK]

One question about Tenet. I did not watch it, but I heard that the sound differs from one theater to another and that was done intentionally by Nolan to cater to do more high-end venues.

Nolas is a genius director, he can create a sound by tick clock and use Shepard Tone to make sounds effects Dunkirk movie to be an illusion of intense tension. Because of those sounds, he got 2 the winner as Best Sound and Best Sound Editing. In Tenet, I guess he still uses another Shepard Tone to create that effect. Unfortunately, tenet only gets nominated for visual effects and production design, that sounds effect didn't attract to be nominated.

Honestly, I don't really like storylines that make my brain think hard like Christoper Nolan's movies. There are many movies that good people say I can't digest very well.  Maybe different perceptions caused it.  However, I admit the storyline of the Tenet film is very difficult to understand if we are not serious about watching it.  Just one watch I don't really understand the plot.  The grooves are quite heavy for me.  Because it is too complex and the characters that play are so strong.  But what's cool is that this film doesn't really rely on CGI and only relies on other shooting and scoring techniques.

[Rikafip]

I was only telling everyone that there is more behind the Oscar awards than judging the winners for their film quality and quality of acting. There now is politics and the manipulation of what the world’s sentiment should be. I reckon if George Floyd was killed and the black lives matter movement begun today, all major awards will be won by a black director, actor, actress and producer for any movie about black oppression.

Of course there is more behind the Oscars than just judging by the quality. Studios spend a lot money on lobbying each year and then their is agenda that Hollywood pushes etc. But even if everything is legit there is no guarantee that film we think is the best would win, as this will always be subjective to some degree.

If you are a lover of the drama genre, maybe Minari is worth watching because the plot is enough to make the audience curious about how it ends and is well packaged by the director. However, for viewers who don't really like the Drama genre I think this will be quite boring, because the storyline is a bit similar to some local films and it's easy to guess how it ends. I honestly don't really like drama genre, and prefer animation like soul. Soul has a light but very meaningful groove.

It's true that those who don't like dramas will probably find Minari boring. Same goes for other three dramas nominated in Best Picture category; Sound of Metal, Nomadland and The Father. Then again, I don't understand how someone that likes movies can dislike good drama, but to each his own.

I might not like everything he does, but I'll give him that he's really open and willing to try new artistic concepts, but maybe his intention to cater to the more upscale movie theaters with Tenet rubbed some people the wrong way.

My problem with Nolan is that along the way he stopped caring about characters in his movies, and so did I. And that was my main problem with Tenet, honestly not giving a fuck about anything that goes on. I don't mind style over substance thing (good example is Promising Young Woman which I liked)  but I am not fan of his style (and ideas) either. I really liked his movies before, but sometimes after Inception it went downhill for me.


I finally managed to watch The Father as it "leaked" few days ago and all I have to say that if Chadwick Boseman was still alive, Anthony Hopkins would win the Oscar easily for his role. That was in my opinion his best performance since Silence of the Lambs.

After watching all nominated movies, I still can't decide which one I liked the best. Tough year to decide, as none really stands out.

[STT]

after Inception it went downhill

Inception did have a core story to it and also the amazing effects on top of that, effects are the icing on the cake.   Tenet has no hook to it to make me watch it especially, maybe I should be watching it drunk when it wouldnt count so significantly to my enjoyment.    That doesnt mean it cant win in its category on the techniques used but I think awards tend to have some bias into a story portraying a good overall effect created.

[Saint-loup]

I've placed bets based on my post quoted above:
Best Picture: The Trial of The Chicago 7
Best Actress: Andra Day (The United States Vs. Billie Holiday)
Best Director: either: Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman) OR Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
Best Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-Jung (Minari)
Best Supporting Actor: Lakeith Stanfield (Judas And The Black Messiah)

An interesting picks, I still can't decide about few. Problem is that some odds for an obvious favorites are way too low so it doesn't make sense, while those that have decent odds don't look like they have good chances. Our of all "major "categories" the one for Best Supporting Actress seems most uncertain. I see that you bet on Youn Yuh-Jung (Minari) which is imho a good bet as she did a decent job bit I am still trying to get my hands on The Father as I think Olivia Coleman might even scoop that. 10 is a great odd but I don't wanna bet without watching a movie first. I know that its not really important to see the movie in order to bet, but still can't force myself betting like that.

Nomadland just won few days ago the Producers Guild of America Award. So there isn't any suspense anymore : Nomadland will won the Oscar of the best picture and Chloe Zaho the best director award as I said since the beginning of this thread. End of the game.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/24/movies/nomadland-producers-guild-award.html

The biggest favorites are of course Chadwick Boseman, Chloe Zhao and Nomadland.

[famososMuertos]

We are fans of cinema and good movies in my family environment and close friends, although we love more to discuss the results of who wins or who loses than the same money or other intangible things that we bet, it is good to say that the Oscars is that type of events in which you can reconcile a bet without any stigma of the bet itself.

On the other hand, on the issue that corresponds to us of the odds and predictions, I have never made a bet with relevant money that is not in the categories of:
Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Picture in any of these I bet strong, there is always a return, it is very difficult to have surprises if you investigate well, in any case if you fail in one of the bets, the other two compensate.

The other thing that can be done is to add a better director, when his odds are better than the three mentioned and it is clear that there are good possibilities, but for example, for my tastes, the best director is always an uncertain category at least there are always two or three Directors with a lot of chance, which obviously hurts your result.

Top 3:
Best Picture: Mank
Best Actress: Vanessa Kirby
Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman

It is important to highlight the competition that exists between streaming and traditional cinema, that is why they have weight in my selection.

[Zilon]

Academy released today list of 2021 Oscar nominees in 24 categories so I thought its time to start this thread, mention all the nominees and their odds. The odds have been taken from nicerodds. Some categories that don't have odds available yet will be updated later.

Official website: https://www.oscars.org


Best Picture
The Trial of The Chicago 7 6

Best Actress [/b][/size]
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) 1.61

Best Actor
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Raineys Black Bottom) 1.08

Best Director
David Fincher (Mank) 9

Best Supporting Actor
Paul Raci (Sound Of Metal) 23

Best Supporting Actress
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) 5

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Father 6

Best Animated Feature
Soul 1.18
 
Best Cinematography
Nomadland 1.5
News Of The World 13

Best Costume Design
Emma 2.2

Best Documentary Feature
Time 1.61
Collective 3.25
Crip-Camp 7.5
My-Octopus-Teacher 9
The-Mole-Agent 23

Best International Feature Film
Another-Round 1.25
Quo-Vadis-Aida 5
Collective 9
Better-Days 17
The-Man-Who-Sold-His-Skin 26

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 1.4
Hillbilly Elegy 6
Emma 7
Mank 7
Pinocchio 17

Best Original Screenplay
The Trial Of The Chicago 7 1.57

Best original score (no odds yet)
Minari

Best production design (no odds yet)
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Best sound (no odds yet)
Greyhound
Mank

Best Visual Effects
Mulan 17


Best animated short film (no odds yet)
If Anything Happens I Love You

Best documentary short (no odds yet)
Do Not Split

Best film editing (no odds yet)
The Father

Best live-action short film (no odds yet)
Feeling Through

Best original score (no odds yet)
News of the World

Best original song (no odds yet)
Husavik, Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire



So, who are your personal favorites, who do you think it will win and on who are you  going to bet? Discuss!

I had to carefully select my personal favourites and am so convinced of their winnings not minding their odds but carefully going through some history to check if the actually fit for the winnings. Wishing them all best of luck

[aesma]

Due to COVID cinemas here in France have been closed most of the year (and still are) so I've not seen most of the movies. In fact I've only seen Tenet and I'm pretty sure it will win something.

Also I wouldn't be surprised if the results are pretty "African Americanised". Can't help the real people so let's give them some solace with meaningless prizes.

[jaberwock]

Top 3:
Best Picture: Mank
Best Actress: Vanessa Kirby
Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman

It is important to highlight the competition that exists between streaming and traditional cinema, that is why they have weight in my selection.

I do agree that Mank was a wonderful movie but The Father was a different feeling you know, maybe that's because my grandma had the same thing but I guess that's something personal that anyone could feel connection to even if not it is in their family. The fact is that we all grow up, and we all get old, and even if not at that level, we may not have the clearest memory at certain point and not full capacity working brain after a while as well. In any case he played it perfectly and that was a wonderful movie.

Looking at odds people do not seem to think that it has the biggest chance, in fact it looks like it's at the bottom of the table and quite frankly that was shocking to see, I didn't watched all the movies but it was definitely a great one. Hell Anthony Hopkins would have been the best actor award winner if Chadwick didn't die this year.

[Rikafip]

I do agree that Mank was a wonderful movie but The Father was a different feeling you know, maybe that's because my grandma had the same thing but I guess that's something personal that anyone could feel connection to even if not it is in their family. The fact is that we all grow up, and we all get old, and even if not at that level, we may not have the clearest memory at certain point and not full capacity working brain after a while as well. In any case he played it perfectly and that was a wonderful movie.

Despite The Father being a drama, when you think about it, it was actually a pretty scary and disturbing movie. I read at few places that thats exactly how dementia looks like and that Hopkins (and Director & Screenwriter) was spot on, in the way that illness was presented. I saw people being portrayed in that state in some other movies, but it was never as terrifying and detailed as in this one.

That's why I said in my previous post that Hopkins would easily win his 2nd Oscar if it was normal situation. Since I am at it, I do think that Olivia Colman deserves Best Supporting Actress Oscar too, as both Maria Bakalova (Borat) and Youn Yuh-Jung (Minari) were inferior to her while they have better chances to win according to bookies, for God knows what reason. Just academy being academy I guess... but those compensations are the worst. Like when Pacino didn't get an Oscar for Serpico, Dog Day Afternoon or Godfather 2, but he got it for that cringe fest also known as Scent of a Woman, instead of Clint Eastwood for that masterpiece Unforgiven and especially Denzel Washington for by far his best performance ever in Malcolm X!

Due to COVID cinemas here in France have been closed most of the year (and still are) so I've not seen most of the movies. In fact I've only seen Tenet and I'm pretty sure it will win something.

Yeah, unless you are ready to illegally obtain them its practically impossible to watch all of them by now, but few of them are available on Netflix (Mank and Trial of the Chicago 7). Regarding Tenet, it will probably win those Oscars in technical categories.

I had to carefully select my personal favourites and am so convinced of their winnings not minding their odds but carefully going through some history to check if the actually fit for the winnings. Wishing them all best of luck

Thanks for your input, I will soon make my own list. I plan to do both who I think will win, and who I would like to win, so some kind of combo.

[Silberman]

If it weren't for the quarantine, I'd go to the movies. I like watching movies on the big screen. Besides, last year there was only one big movie, and that was Tenet. I myself have a subscription to Netflix and several other streaming platforms. But I don't think the model of distributing movies on streaming platforms is a good idea, because online piracy is still a big thing these days. And it would be detrimental to the studios' earnings.

This is going to be extremely problematic for the movie industry, while it is true that there is nothing like going to the cinema and watch a good movie I still think that this year is also going to be bad for them, and while streaming services are growing in popularity there is no way they can obtain the same kind of profits with those services precisely because of the point that you bring, online piracy is more popular than ever and as we know there is no way to stop it, so unless they find another way to monetize their movies it is possible that we are going to see many companies in that industry going bankrupt.

[blue Snow]

Due to COVID cinemas here in France have been closed most of the year (and still are) so I've not seen most of the movies.

Pretty sure when googling those movies you will find them without watching live in cinemas. there are has any kind of resolution, blue-ray, HD, 3gp, DVcam and etc. we don't make a fault when watching it on an illegal resource ( we are lockdown) even Netflix didn't launch yet of the movie.

[aesma]

I have no real qualms about piracy but I'm a cinema fan so I prefer to watch movies in the best conditions, and I haven't bought yet a house big enough to have my own home cinema room.

Others think like me that Black actors etc. will win big ?

[STT]

Anyone winning or not winning a film because of the amount of light their skin tone reflects is equally ridiculous to me, what category would that come under comedy perhaps.   I hope for a better basis to votes then nonsense tbh

Due to COVID cinemas here in France have been closed most of the year (and still are) so I've not seen most of the movies. In fact I've only seen Tenet and I'm pretty sure it will win something.

Closed down circumstances could aid some films that are not block busters.

Best film editing (no odds yet)
The Father

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Father 6

Been watching The Father, its not an easy film to have in this format.   It could win film editing as the cuts to display the malaise of the central character aid the story telling well.  Its a hard subject that faces us all and our relatives, the demographic of the oscar voters is invariably older then the average population because it can takes decades to earn an oscar; they could have sympathy to the films testimony.
   Hard to judge if it wins, its as far away from a blockbuster as can get and most of the film is one or two rooms of a flat.   Theres no valid criticism, its all well done just a hard subject to portray on film.

[el kaka22]

I do not get it, I watched the trial of Chicago 7 to see what it was about, it was second in odds after nomadland, and I checked all others out before as well this was the last one. I have to say I really didn't like any of the movies, what is this point of Oscars only given to movies that are "artistic", like a lot of monologues, a lot of dialogues, a lot of feelings, like it's so artistic, I end up feeling like banana peeled to wall worth 150k in art form type of deal here.

I do not think this was the real thing. Go check the box office top 100 and you will see maybe 20 of them are like that, the top 10 is all super heroes and star wars and alike, you do not see anything like these movies in there. Why pick what people do not watch as the best movie? I mean whichever movie was viewed the most that year should be the best picture, that's for sure, these movies wouldn't get 1 billion dollar level even if every single cinema in the world showed it. This year is exceptionally bad.

[aesma]

At the Cannes festival the best movie is always like that, so it's not unusual there. It's true the Oscars are usually more about big budget, mainstream movies, but I guess not this year. Even if superhero and star wars movies do well, you couldn't give them oscars every year, there would be no point either.

At Cannes what they did is to add a new category : public's choice. There the movie that will win will be one of the most popular of the year.

[bbc.reporter]

I was only telling everyone that there is more behind the Oscar awards than judging the winners for their film quality and quality of acting. There now is politics and the manipulation of what the world’s sentiment should be. I reckon if George Floyd was killed and the black lives matter movement begun today, all major awards will be won by a black director, actor, actress and producer for any movie about black oppression.

Of course there is more behind the Oscars than just judging by the quality. Studios spend a lot money on lobbying each year and then their is agenda that Hollywood pushes etc. But even if everything is legit there is no guarantee that film we think is the best would win, as this will always be subjective to some degree.

Also, the Oscars for each category are won through votes by the members of the academy. This makes it always open to politics, lobbying and manipulation. Hollywood has also been one of the greatest influencers on which storyline and course the world should follow. I reckon for the next 10 years China will use Hollywood to influence everyone to love and agree with its own storyline. I predict a famous director will create a movie about Mao Tse Tung as a good protagonist hehehehe.

[TheNineClub]

My problem with Nolan is that along the way he stopped caring about characters in his movies, and so did I. And that was my main problem with Tenet, honestly not giving a fuck about anything that goes on. I don't mind style over substance thing (good example is Promising Young Woman which I liked)  but I am not fan of his style (and ideas) either. I really liked his movies before, but sometimes after Inception it went downhill for me.

Yeah, I can see him being the type of director that goes for the overall aesthetics rather than the depth, however, there are examples where overall aesthetics created an artificial depth that was then left to the spectator to interpret however they want. Maybe I'm going a bit philosophically with this but it can be done that way, it's just that Nolan does not seem to have a grasp on how to do it. To sum it up, my guy Nolan is just trying too damn hard to stick out of the box but just does not have the chops for it.

[Rikafip]

I do not get it, I watched the trial of Chicago 7 to see what it was about, it was second in odds after nomadland, and I checked all others out before as well this was the last one. I have to say I really didn't like any of the movies, what is this point of Oscars only given to movies that are "artistic", like a lot of monologues, a lot of dialogues, a lot of feelings, like it's so artistic, I end up feeling like banana peeled to wall worth 150k in art form type of deal here.

I agree with the first post of your post, that Trial of Chicago 7 is nothing special really, despite the fact that I really like courtroom dramas, but this one was simply an average movie at me. It's probably more about the subject, than the quality of the movie itself.

Regarding the other part, Oscars usually favors dramas, that's how it goes, but also bear in mind that 2020 was a bit different than others; no one wanted to produce and release an expensive big blockbuster movies like in previous years simply because of the closed cinemas.So why would someone invest 200-300 million of dollars if they can't make the profit? 

If everythig was ok, I am sure that we would get more of those "big" movies among nominated ones for the Best Picture. First one that comes to my mind is Dune, that was postponed for late 2021 and I am pretty sure it would end up among nominated ones. And guess which ones are cheap to produce? Dramas.

Why pick what people do not watch as the best movie? I mean whichever movie was viewed the most that year should be the best picture

That doesn't make much sense, and I sure hope awards will never be given on that basis. Most viewed doesn't equal quality.

To sum it up, my guy Nolan is just trying too damn hard to stick out of the box but just does not have the chops for it.

Yep, that pretty much sums it up for me. I will keep watching everything that he makes, but I don't expect much anymore. But who knows, maybe he can surprise.

[Timelord2067]

Quite a few people in this thread have missed a key point about the Acadamy Awards (Oscars) in that it has become a very topical platform for political statements to be made.  Look to the winners of the recent Emmy Awards and you will see strong voter preferences for performances in very relevant to today stories.

The Oscars will be no different.

[Silberman]

I do not get it, I watched the trial of Chicago 7 to see what it was about, it was second in odds after nomadland, and I checked all others out before as well this was the last one. I have to say I really didn't like any of the movies, what is this point of Oscars only given to movies that are "artistic", like a lot of monologues, a lot of dialogues, a lot of feelings, like it's so artistic, I end up feeling like banana peeled to wall worth 150k in art form type of deal here.

I do not think this was the real thing. Go check the box office top 100 and you will see maybe 20 of them are like that, the top 10 is all super heroes and star wars and alike, you do not see anything like these movies in there. Why pick what people do not watch as the best movie? I mean whichever movie was viewed the most that year should be the best picture, that's for sure, these movies wouldn't get 1 billion dollar level even if every single cinema in the world showed it. This year is exceptionally bad.

That will be the fairest way to give awards as it will be based on data that cannot be manipulated, however we must also admit that many times popular movies are not really that good either, the issue comes when those that are supposed to vote for good movies instead vote for movies that align with their values and with what they want to transmit to the pubic, at that point it is not longer an award ceremony to the best movies and instead it becomes nothing more but a platform to disseminate their own views to the world, which is why less and less people watch the Oscars.