The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy

[Sithara007]

^^^ Russia is in a tricky situation with Turkic nations such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. Rather than the threat from NATO, they should take the threat from Turkey more seriously.

Nah, Turkey can not afford to be a threat to Russia because they heavily rely on their energy and their economy is already in ruins and any new tensions (like a single loitering munition hitting an infrastructure in Turkey) would have dire economical consequences.

Those micro countries like Azerbaijan are not even considered big enough to be a threat. A handful of missiles are enough to neutralize each of them.
It's just that these countries have stupid politicians who are being abused by bigger powers and they think that they can gain some interest while everyone else is too buys to look at what they are doing. For example Baku is trying to take the area linking it to Nakhchivan but they won't be allowed to finish this ever simply because it is a very strategically important corridor that acts as one of Russia's main lifelines not to mention an important corridor to Iran since it is one of the routes used to link Iran to both Russia and Europe.

The misinformation Baku got was that the UNSC would busy Iran too much to distract it from their adventures. What they didn't count on was our military moving to the borders and the trigger fingers itching to take back Nakhchivan and possibly Azerbaijan (originally Aran) and reattach them to the motherland...

Russia maybe even more dependent on Turkey, for exports of natural gas and crude oil. But I agree with your observations on Naxçıvan. It is strategically located. If Azerbaijan invades the area between Naxçıvan and Azerbaijan proper, then there are two benefits:

1. There can be a direct natural gas /crude oil pipeline between Azerbaijan and Turkey (the current one goes through Georgia)
2. Any possibility of a natural gas pipeline from Iran to Europe, through Armenia can be sabotaged

And I am 100% sure that the war will not stop unless Turkey and Azerbaijan conquers the southern portion of Armenia, which separates Naxçıvan from rest of Azerbaijan.

[Ozero]

This whole operation is taking place under the sign of an acute shortage of personnel on the part of Russia. Putin refused to call for mobilization (and still refuses) and also refused to carry out mass bombing to minimize civilian casualties. Both of these decisions separately are correct, but taken together at the same time, in my opinion, are a mistake. Let's see how events will develop, Russia does not plan to abandon the originally declared goals of the operation.

You, as always, distort the objective reality that is taking place in Russia's war in Ukraine. Putin would have announced a general mobilization in Russia long ago if he did not see the danger to his rule from such actions. To announce official mobilization in the country is actually to admit that the Russian regular army is suffering heavy losses in Ukraine and is not coping with the assigned occupation tasks. And this also means that Putin himself did not fully plan his "special military operation" and made a big mistake, and the people will not forgive him for this. In addition, Putin understands that the general mobilization will cause serious discontent among the people. It's one thing to sit on the couch in front of the TV and agree with television propagandists about the attack on Ukraine, and it's another thing to participate in the war, where they can get killed. In addition, the mobilized need to be clothed, fed, issued with weapons and provided with equipment, and Russia already has problems with all this. Therefore, mobilization in Russia is carried out, however, covertly and partially. But after the military failures in Ukraine, fewer citizens want to be cannon fodder in Ukraine. Therefore, Putin has to recruit mercenaries in Syria, Belarus, the countries of Central Asia and even prisoners in their prisons.

As for the shelling and bombing of the territory of Ukraine by the Russians, this is happening in full. On the territory of Ukraine, Russia has already fired more than 3,800 missiles, and fires at the civilian population every day and with all types of weapons. Where the Russians pass, 80-90 percent of Ukrainian settlements turn into ruins. Therefore, there is no need to tell fairy tales that the Russians are worried about the peaceful citizens of Ukraine.

[pooya87]

It is strategically located. If Azerbaijan invades the area between Naxçıvan and Azerbaijan proper, then there are two benefits:

1. There can be a direct natural gas /crude oil pipeline between Azerbaijan and Turkey (the current one goes through Georgia)
2. Any possibility of a natural gas pipeline from Iran to Europe, through Armenia can be sabotaged

Other benefits are for NATO which are massive:
3. Some say Baku will be added to NATO overnight if they succeed in taking that little corridor.
4. Europe would gain access to the gas-rich Caspian sea and can manage their energy crisis a little better.
5. Gaining access to that sea means NATO military bases right at northern Iran's border and bringing their navy to the Caspian sea threatening the whole region that includes both Iran and Russia.

And I am 100% sure that the war will not stop unless Turkey and Azerbaijan conquers the southern portion of Armenia, which separates Naxçıvan from rest of Azerbaijan.

For now it seems like Baku knows better to get into a full invasion of Armenia so they will most probably have a lot more of these "little adventures" with high casualties that end too fast in a cease fire like the recent one but each time advance a little more into Armenia.

Things could escalate real fast though, if a third party gets involved... I wouldn't rule out possibility of "something" hitting Istanbul out of "nowhere" either... There is already a conflict between Greece and Turkey too...

[MiF]

War has a very big impact to the economy specially to those country who has a trading activity on the two country that involve on the war, my country import a gas on russia the very big effect is that the gas here my place is very expensive its price hike almost 95% of its natural price not only in gas but also in some other product that come from the country that involve on the war really spike the economy is suffering because the gas is really needed to transport a product from one place to another and it makes all basic needs product price rise.

[Sithara007]

~~~
For now it seems like Baku knows better to get into a full invasion of Armenia so they will most probably have a lot more of these "little adventures" with high casualties that end too fast in a cease fire like the recent one but each time advance a little more into Armenia.

Things could escalate real fast though, if a third party gets involved... I wouldn't rule out possibility of "something" hitting Istanbul out of "nowhere" either... There is already a conflict between Greece and Turkey too...

Greece-Turkey conflict will stay dormant as long as these two countries are part of the NATO. I can see a more widespread conflict between ethnic groups that speak Indo-Iranian languages and those who speak Turkic languages. A few examples are as follows:

Kurds vs Turks
Tajiks vs Kyrgyz
Armenians vs Azeris
Ossets vs Ingush

Full invasion of Armenia may not be needed. All they (Azeris) need is to conquer around 200-300 sq.km of territory between Naxçıvan and Zəngilan. That will allow the gas pipelines from Azerbaijan (and also from trans-Caspian nations) to connect to Turkey.

[Sithara007]

My cousins are farmers and they also been affected by the Russian war
They were very upset - and told us their crops are rotting in the store and the prices fell terribly down and there is nothing they can do to sell them at lower cost.
That is how we all have been affected by the war. Everywhere arround the world

In a war, it is always the common people who suffer. Transporting agricultural commodities such as wheat by rail or road doesn't make much sense, given their price per ton. So the only option is to transport them by sea. And in a war, both the sides would try as much as they can to reduce the revenue inflow for the other side. Ukraine, being dependent on exports of wheat and sunflower oil suffered as a result. Maybe once the war is over, the government will be able to build better storage facilities, which can store wheat for the long term.

[be.open]

As for the shelling and bombing of the territory of Ukraine by the Russians, this is happening in full. On the territory of Ukraine, Russia has already fired more than 3,800 missiles, and fires at the civilian population every day and with all types of weapons. Where the Russians pass, 80-90 percent of Ukrainian settlements turn into ruins. Therefore, there is no need to tell fairy tales that the Russians are worried about the peaceful citizens of Ukraine.

I'm not talking about high-precision missiles, but bombing with good old high-explosive bombs. This is a cheap and effective method of suppressing resistance, it was the FAB-500 high-explosive bombs that smoked the Azov militants out of the bunker near Azovstal. With them, Russia successfully stopped the offensive of Ukraine near Kherson. The disadvantage of this method is too much destruction. But of course, this is not a reason to refuse it, if we are talking about the success of the entire special operation.

[kapalmabur]

~~~
For now it seems like Baku knows better to get into a full invasion of Armenia so they will most probably have a lot more of these "little adventures" with high casualties that end too fast in a cease fire like the recent one but each time advance a little more into Armenia.

Things could escalate real fast though, if a third party gets involved... I wouldn't rule out possibility of "something" hitting Istanbul out of "nowhere" either... There is already a conflict between Greece and Turkey too...

Greece-Turkey conflict will stay dormant as long as these two countries are part of the NATO. I can see a more widespread conflict between ethnic groups that speak Indo-Iranian languages and those who speak Turkic languages. A few examples are as follows:

Kurds vs Turks
Tajiks vs Kyrgyz
Armenians vs Azeris
Ossets vs Ingush

Full invasion of Armenia may not be needed. All they (Azeris) need is to conquer around 200-300 sq.km of territory between Naxçıvan and Zəngilan. That will allow the gas pipelines from Azerbaijan (and also from trans-Caspian nations) to connect to Turkey.

My cousins are farmers and they also been affected by the Russian war
They were very upset - and told us their crops are rotting in the store and the prices fell terribly down and there is nothing they can do to sell them at lower cost.
That is how we all have been affected by the war. Everywhere arround the world

Certainly many sectors are affected by the war and the most terrible thing at this time is the deteriorating global economic condition,
commodity prices continue to rise and this is a difficult condition for sure,
With the war between Russia and Ukraine, it has had a tremendous impact on the global community

[pooya87]

Greece-Turkey conflict will stay dormant as long as these two countries are part of the NATO.

There is a lot of old conflicts that are surfacing these days though. Some countries are even bringing up WWII issues, conflicts over territories, etc. They've also started the process of kicking out Turkey (US accused Turkey of war crimes in Syria after all this time of knowing it!!!).

But I agree that Greece-Turkey conflict will remain dormant. Right now Turkey has a purpose to server which is to connect to Baku by occupying parts of Armenia then they can add Baku to NATO immediately to gain a huge advantage (as I pointed out before, which also affects China). If they fail, Turkey's importance to NATO significantly decreases depending on how they failed. For example there is a good chance that the moment Turkey gets involved in this conflict inside Armenia they will see themselves in a whole lot of hell coming from Syria and Iraq (south borders) and Iran inside Armenia and possibly directly on eastern border. Turkey's economy and energy sector would simply vanish with no gas and oil and possibly even 200%+ inflation.

Some analysts are suggesting that this conflict would be prolonged for months where Turkey is sucked in and destroyed slowly. Keep in mind that they have a big military but it is the most dependent military considering that almost everything they have is imported. EU and US are already complaining about empty weapon cashes due to the tremendous amount of weapons they've been sending to Ukraine. So there won't be anything left to send to Turkey.
Which could be another incentive to kick Turkey out of NATO (winter is also coming!), they just call their invasion of Armenia another "war crime" and kick them out.
That also means NATO won't have to get involved when Turkey's mainland is hit in respond to their invasion

Then Greece (ie. NATO) goes after Turkey and may not even need an armed conflict, they just take parts they want without shooting a single bullet.

Full invasion of Armenia may not be needed. All they (Azeris) need is to conquer around 200-300 sq.km of territory between Naxçıvan and Zəngilan.

It looks easy on paper. We are talking about a mountainous territory that is extremely hard to cross and an uphill battle where Armenia has the upper hand and can rain missiles and bombs on their heads all day long.

In any case we have to wait to see what will happen. Right now there is all kinds of fake news coming out and it looks like every military in that little region is mobilized already...

[Stella Mese]

Many people say that the economic recession that is happening today is the effect of the Russian vs Ukraine War, war is indeed a serious problem for the economy, there will be many problems, especially supply from war, Russia has large oil and gas reserves and most consumers are European countries so that when there is a war, Russia has more power.

And the most affected by Russia's war with Ukraine is Europe. because Europe has dependence on Russia in the field of gas and energy. Europe is experiencing a gas and energy crisis. So the inflation rate is high in Europe. even people started looking for firewood in europe to replace gas. the most concerning is that the euro continues to decline in its exchange rate to a very low level

[blue_hurricanger]

My cousins are farmers and they also been affected by the Russian war
They were very upset - and told us their crops are rotting in the store and the prices fell terribly down and there is nothing they can do to sell them at lower cost.
That is how we all have been affected by the war. Everywhere arround the world

In a war, it is always the common people who suffer. Transporting agricultural commodities such as wheat by rail or road doesn't make much sense, given their price per ton. So the only option is to transport them by sea. And in a war, both the sides would try as much as they can to reduce the revenue inflow for the other side. Ukraine, being dependent on exports of wheat and sunflower oil suffered as a result. Maybe once the war is over, the government will be able to build better storage facilities, which can store wheat for the long term.

Not just in war. After it too. It's always the common folks who become poorer under dramatic changes both in and after the war. Especially on the revenue since the business isn't like it was before the fight broke out. I don't know what you guy think about the fate of Ukraine after all of this war end. But for me, I feel a bit sad that a lot of things have been lost, lives have been lost, kids lack opportunities to go to school in and after the war. Time to rebuild everything all together, the money behind it. All under a country war-torn under bombs and mines.

There was a line in a song: "Even though we love rose, the enemy forces us to embrace gun". I know the sacrifice has to be made in war, to give up a lot of things to make it. Worth it or not, it's up to the Ukrainian to say. But you can't help to see the amount of burden it has done on the people.

[Abiky]

Many people say that the economic recession that is happening today is the effect of the Russian vs Ukraine War, war is indeed a serious problem for the economy, there will be many problems, especially supply from war, Russia has large oil and gas reserves and most consumers are European countries so that when there is a war, Russia has more power.

Many countries are disappointed with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It has not only destroyed lives, but also the global economy. Unless Russia backtracks or comes with a peace deal with Ukraine, we won't be seeing any progress on the economy whatsoever. Sanctions did nothing but make Russia more powerful, weakening the economy of both the US and EU (especially the EU).

Unless world countries isolate Russia from everything, things will only get worse. I hope we get to see the light at the end of the tunnel soon. Otherwise, there would be a dark future ahead of us. No one knows how this conflict will end, so we can only hope for the best. Just my thoughts

[Ozero]

As for the shelling and bombing of the territory of Ukraine by the Russians, this is happening in full. On the territory of Ukraine, Russia has already fired more than 3,800 missiles, and fires at the civilian population every day and with all types of weapons. Where the Russians pass, 80-90 percent of Ukrainian settlements turn into ruins. Therefore, there is no need to tell fairy tales that the Russians are worried about the peaceful citizens of Ukraine.

I'm not talking about high-precision missiles, but bombing with good old high-explosive bombs. This is a cheap and effective method of suppressing resistance, it was the FAB-500 high-explosive bombs that smoked the Azov militants out of the bunker near Azovstal. With them, Russia successfully stopped the offensive of Ukraine near Kherson. The disadvantage of this method is too much destruction. But of course, this is not a reason to refuse it, if we are talking about the success of the entire special operation.

The counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson direction did not stop. On this sector of the front, the Armed Forces of Ukraine use a completely different tactic, in contrast to the rapid offensive in the Kharkov direction. A large 20,000-strong group of Russian troops in the Kherson region is cut off from supply routes and pressed against the Dnieper River, and is also under constant fire control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Here, the Ukrainians are in no hurry to attack the fortified positions of the Russians head-on, so as not to lose their troops, but methodically hit the ammunition depots, control centers and concentrations of equipment and manpower of the enemy. This group of invaders is doomed and will either surrender or try to swim across the Dnieper.

[Abiky]

Russia and Ukraine war has led to severe affect on post çovid recovery. It  has disrupted the globa
 Supply chains ans it has caused damage to manufacturing sector as well. Europe is most severely affected due to the crisis. And yes this has damaged thr international order as well....

Putin was way out of his mind by deciding to invade Ukraine without taking into consideration the consequences of doing so. Not only did he destroyed Russia's credibility and economy, but he also disrupted the current world order. COVID-19 already had a negative effect over supply chains and the global economy, but the invasion made matters worse. Putin won't back down anytime soon especially when his political future is at stake. Giving up on the war now, would mean Putin's regime has weakened.

I'm afraid the world economy will continue to decline until there's no point for recovery. That is unless Europe and the US become self-sufficient from gas and energy reserves. EU should turn its attention to alternative energy sources, while the US should ramp up oil production instead of importing it from other countries. If they do that, most of the world's problems would be solved. Let's hope we see the light at the end of the tunnel by 2023. Just my opinion

[Sithara007]

Many people say that the economic recession that is happening today is the effect of the Russian vs Ukraine War, war is indeed a serious problem for the economy, there will be many problems, especially supply from war, Russia has large oil and gas reserves and most consumers are European countries so that when there is a war, Russia has more power.

And the most affected by Russia's war with Ukraine is Europe. because Europe has dependence on Russia in the field of gas and energy. Europe is experiencing a gas and energy crisis. So the inflation rate is high in Europe. even people started looking for firewood in europe to replace gas. the most concerning is that the euro continues to decline in its exchange rate to a very low level

The crisis in Europe was brought by the Europeans. They should have remained neutral in the conflict, but they were busy with rushing to the aid of Ukraine by providing all the modern weaponry. On top of that they imposed all sort of sanctions and embargoes on Russia. It was a retarded step, given that a large part of the oil and gas imported by the EU at that point came from Russia. Obviously Russia retaliated by blocking the exports and as a result the fuel prices have gone up by several times in most of the EU nations.

[Jatiluhung]

Putin was way out of his mind by deciding to invade Ukraine without taking into consideration the consequences of doing so. Not only did he destroyed Russia's credibility and economy, but he also disrupted the current world order. COVID-19 already had a negative effect over supply chains and the global economy, but the invasion made matters worse. Putin won't back down anytime soon especially when his political future is at stake. Giving up on the war now, would mean Putin's regime has weakened.

I'm afraid the world economy will continue to decline until there's no point for recovery. That is unless Europe and the US become self-sufficient from gas and energy reserves. EU should turn its attention to alternative energy sources, while the US should ramp up oil production instead of importing it from other countries. If they do that, most of the world's problems would be solved. Let's hope we see the light at the end of the tunnel by 2023. Just my opinion

Everyone hopes that the economy will recover quickly. And also hope Russia and Ukraine make peace. but it seems it will be very difficult to achieve in the near future. I even recently read the news about a statement from Putin that was broadcast on television. the bottom line is that the war will not end any time soon. it even seems that in Russia there will be conscription. I don't know exactly when. but it looks like the google search keyword 'How to Leave Russia' has improved a lot. and airline tickets for flights out of Russia became sold out. which indicates that many Russian citizens want to leave Russia. whether it was to avoid a military call or for some other reason. I do not know. but the search keyword on google 'How to Leave Russia' is trending, so I think there's a reason.
For more details you can read on the following news site. :
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/flights-out-russia-sell-out-after-putin-orders-partial-call-up-2022-09-21/

We must be prepared with all possibilities that will happen in 2023. because the impact of war on the global economy will clearly be felt. Let's pray the best for all of us.

[pooya87]

The crisis in Europe was brought by the Europeans. They should have remained neutral in the conflict, but they were busy with rushing to the aid of Ukraine by providing all the modern weaponry. On top of that they imposed all sort of sanctions and embargoes on Russia. It was a retarded step, given that a large part of the oil and gas imported by the EU at that point came from Russia. Obviously Russia retaliated by blocking the exports and as a result the fuel prices have gone up by several times in most of the EU nations.

Those who started the war can not remain neutral after it started though. I also wouldn't call the sanctions retarded because they never thought that Russia would just redirect its gas to China or India to continue buying and increase its buying of Russian oil and a lot of other things that prevented those sanctions from having major effects on Russia but had dire consequences for Europe and even US.

[Sithara007]

Those who started the war can not remain neutral after it started though. I also wouldn't call the sanctions retarded because they never thought that Russia would just redirect its gas to China or India to continue buying and increase its buying of Russian oil and a lot of other things that prevented those sanctions from having major effects on Russia but had dire consequences for Europe and even US.

One thing has become clear by now. The EU decision makers are not very bright. But it is OK, since the same can be said about the vast majority of the voters as well. In short, they are getting what they deserve. The heavy industries in Central and Western Europe managed to survive, only because of extremely cheap gas from Russia. It gave them an advantage over East Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea, which had to import more expensive LNG from Qatar. Now the situation has changed upside down. This is called "cutting the branch you are sitting on".  

[cheezcarls]

Inflation at its finest! Because of this bloody war between Ukraine and Russia, it really affects us economically no matter where we are in the world.

Right here in the Philippines, we are now on our all-time lowest in PHP-USD value. As of this time of writing, it’s now at P58.39 = 1 USD and it will likely push through to P60.00. Passenger fares, commodities, etc., have increased and we have no choice but to endure it.

If you are a guy who is just relying on one income source with a minimum wage, you’ll likely going to struggle adjusting and saving money for the future. This is why it’s important not to stick to just one source only. The more the better no matter inflation worsens due to this ongoing crisis.

[Ozero]

Many people say that the economic recession that is happening today is the effect of the Russian vs Ukraine War, war is indeed a serious problem for the economy, there will be many problems, especially supply from war, Russia has large oil and gas reserves and most consumers are European countries so that when there is a war, Russia has more power.

And the most affected by Russia's war with Ukraine is Europe. because Europe has dependence on Russia in the field of gas and energy. Europe is experiencing a gas and energy crisis. So the inflation rate is high in Europe. even people started looking for firewood in europe to replace gas. the most concerning is that the euro continues to decline in its exchange rate to a very low level

The crisis in Europe was brought by the Europeans. They should have remained neutral in the conflict, but they were busy with rushing to the aid of Ukraine by providing all the modern weaponry. On top of that they imposed all sort of sanctions and embargoes on Russia. It was a retarded step, given that a large part of the oil and gas imported by the EU at that point came from Russia. Obviously Russia retaliated by blocking the exports and as a result the fuel prices have gone up by several times in most of the EU nations.

If the countries of Europe had not begun to help Ukraine repel Russian military aggression and would have passively observed the ongoing events, then after the fall of Ukraine, Putin would now have invaded the Baltic countries, Moldova and Poland. Even though Russian troops were defeated in Ukraine, Putin and his entourage did not stop intimidating these states with war. So the states of Europe would not have succeeded in sitting on the sidelines. Ukrainians now, defending their freedom and independence, are simultaneously defending Europe from Russian invaders and European values.

If Europe had not imposed economic sanctions against Russia and thus began to lose money, then it would have had to directly participate in the war itself. They have already understood this, and therefore they declare that they will support Ukraine for as long as it takes until its victory.