The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy

[DrBeer]

Indian refineries have published details on the landing cost of crude oil from Russia. In January 2023, average cost per barrel was $80, and this may include $20 to $30 per barrel for freight and insurance. The landing cost was not much different from the Indian basket ($81 per barrel), since under pressure Iraq was forced to reduce the price of crude oil it sells to India. So India is benefitting in both ways. In one hand, it gets cheap oil from Russia and on the other, it can demand other exporters to reduce their rates.

What are you talking about, but what about the oil price ceiling? Bloomberg is indignant, along with Mr. beer alcoholic, who tells everyone here about huge discounts. Okay, India, it recently turned out based on an analysis of financial statistics reports that the average price of Ural oil, which Japan buys from Russia (which is outrageous in itself, of course), was $68 per barrel in January 2023 - and this is without insurance and transportation. This is no good, as an evil tyrant cannot be defeated by the progressive global LGBT+ community.

I perfectly understand to whom the author so "subtly" sent a primitive insult Well, what else can you expect from a person who globally loses intellectually, except for a pitiful attempt, at least somehow, to insult primitively? Unless, of course, the word intelligence can be applied to my opponent at all

But let's not do the work of a psychiatrist, but move on to reality, from which someone just "be.closed"

So, from open sources, where prices are published from open sources. I focus on open sources, because "under the carpet" Russia actually sells much cheaper than the MARKET price. So, what about our prices?

1. December 2022 - to date - a corridor of approximately $55-50 per barrel. Real-time chart and real price, for buying "HERE AND NOW" (i.e. without discounts on large lots, in which India and China buy oil from Russia)
https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-urals-spot-futures
2. The most Russian newspaper, openly (that is, with the permission of the Kremlin), writes to us verbatim:
"Russia is selling oil to the Chinese at huge discounts amid Western sanctions, up to 20-30% of the cost."
And please note - this is before the introduction of the marginal price!
https://www.gazeta.ru/business/2022/06/20/15012116.shtml?updated


The question is - so which of us is an alcoholic, who, judging by the complete isolation from reality, has been tormented by delirium tremens all his life?

PS Attempts by pro-Russian propagandists to wishful thinking always look pitiful, funny, and always a primitive lie, which my opponent proved here with the utmost quality!

[1713942514]

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[og kush420]

Indian refineries have published details on the landing cost of crude oil from Russia. In January 2023, average cost per barrel was $80, and this may include $20 to $30 per barrel for freight and insurance. The landing cost was not much different from the Indian basket ($81 per barrel), since under pressure Iraq was forced to reduce the price of crude oil it sells to India. So India is benefitting in both ways. In one hand, it gets cheap oil from Russia and on the other, it can demand other exporters to reduce their rates.

What are you talking about, but what about the oil price ceiling? Bloomberg is indignant, along with Mr. beer alcoholic, who tells everyone here about huge discounts. Okay, India, it recently turned out based on an analysis of financial statistics reports that the average price of Ural oil, which Japan buys from Russia (which is outrageous in itself, of course), was $68 per barrel in January 2023 - and this is without insurance and transportation. This is no good, as an evil tyrant cannot be defeated by the progressive global LGBT+ community.

I perfectly understand to whom the author so "subtly" sent a primitive insult Well, what else can you expect from a person who globally loses intellectually, except for a pitiful attempt, at least somehow, to insult primitively? Unless, of course, the word intelligence can be applied to my opponent at all

But let's not do the work of a psychiatrist, but move on to reality, from which someone just "be.closed"

So, from open sources, where prices are published from open sources. I focus on open sources, because "under the carpet" Russia actually sells much cheaper than the MARKET price. So, what about our prices?

1. December 2022 - to date - a corridor of approximately $55-50 per barrel. Real-time chart and real price, for buying "HERE AND NOW" (i.e. without discounts on large lots, in which India and China buy oil from Russia)
https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-urals-spot-futures
2. The most Russian newspaper, openly (that is, with the permission of the Kremlin), writes to us verbatim:
"Russia is selling oil to the Chinese at huge discounts amid Western sanctions, up to 20-30% of the cost."
And please note - this is before the introduction of the marginal price!
https://www.gazeta.ru/business/2022/06/20/15012116.shtml?updated


The question is - so which of us is an alcoholic, who, judging by the complete isolation from reality, has been tormented by delirium tremens all his life?

PS Attempts by pro-Russian propagandists to wishful thinking always look pitiful, funny, and always a primitive lie, which my opponent proved here with the utmost quality!

despite of the fact there have been arrest warrant issued for Putin nothing has changed so far -

[Wong Gendheng]

War certainly brought a broad impact, the Russian War vs Ukraine occurred for more than a year and of course involving many countries, European countries supported Ukraine and many countries that supported Russia, of course the impact of war is very difficult as an increasingly difficult economy.

[jenny56]

The impact of war on the global economy is devastating, as seen in the shortage of oil and other essential resources. The ongoing conflicts will continue to affect the world's economy, resulting in rising inflation and instability.

[Sithara007]

There is an article in Intellinews, which explains why Urals price is meaningless:

https://www.intellinews.com/urals-oil-price-is-increasingly-meaningless-allowing-russian-owned-refineries-in-europe-to-build-up-slush-funds-271098/

A recent study showed that Russian oil companies are actually getting over $80 per barrel in cash for a barrel, despite the fact that the FOB Urals price is under $50.

Then budget revenues from oil and gas revenus collapsed in December and January, but the oil companies continue to report record profits.

What appears to be happening is the budget has indeed seen a sharp fall in revenues, but the leading oil comapnies are still making huge profits. The sanctions mean they are no longer interested in reporting large profits but instead report as low a price for selling Urals as possible, which reduces their tax burden. In what is tantamount to a new transfer pricing scheme, the difference between the price the companies report and the cash they actually make accumulates in thier non-transparent offshore trading companies, creating a huge slush fund that in theory the Kremlin has access to.

Tax revenue for the Russian government has gone down, but oil companies such as Lukoil are making record profits. Lukoil is showing price of Urals crude as $40 per barrel in their returns, and then transporting this crude to the refineries that they own (ISAB refinery in Sicily, Zeeland Refinery in Rotterdam and refineries in Burgas and Constanta). Lukoil then process this crude and sells products at record margins. For the first three quarters of 2022, Lukoil increased the net profit to $8.6 billion. For the same period, Rosneft reported a net profit of $9.4 billion. Gazprom Neft reported profits of $6.7 billion (4x increase YoY). 

[Argoo]

War certainly brought a broad impact, the Russian War vs Ukraine occurred for more than a year and of course involving many countries, European countries supported Ukraine and many countries that supported Russia, of course the impact of war is very difficult as an increasingly difficult economy.

Russia as an occupying country in its aggressive war in Ukraine is openly supported only by the Lukashenka regime (but not Belarus as a whole) and Iran. North Korea provides some support, and the world is now closely watching China's further actions after the recent trip of its leader to Russia.
In general, the entire civilized world is on the side of Ukraine, which is defending itself from direct Russian military aggression. Given that more than 50 states are providing all possible assistance to Ukraine, including military, as well as Russia's threats against many countries, this greatly spurred the arms race both in Europe and in the world as a whole. European countries are transferring Soviet-Russian equipment to Ukraine, and in return they receive new NATO equipment. Thus, rearmament is being accelerated, in addition, budget spending on defense is increasing. Few imagined that this could happen in Europe in the 21st century.

[DrBeer]

There is an article in Intellinews, which explains why Urals price is meaningless:

https://www.intellinews.com/urals-oil-price-is-increasingly-meaningless-allowing-russian-owned-refineries-in-europe-to-build-up-slush-funds-271098/

A recent study showed that Russian oil companies are actually getting over $80 per barrel in cash for a barrel, despite the fact that the FOB Urals price is under $50.

Then budget revenues from oil and gas revenus collapsed in December and January, but the oil companies continue to report record profits.

What appears to be happening is the budget has indeed seen a sharp fall in revenues, but the leading oil comapnies are still making huge profits. The sanctions mean they are no longer interested in reporting large profits but instead report as low a price for selling Urals as possible, which reduces their tax burden. In what is tantamount to a new transfer pricing scheme, the difference between the price the companies report and the cash they actually make accumulates in thier non-transparent offshore trading companies, creating a huge slush fund that in theory the Kremlin has access to.

Tax revenue for the Russian government has gone down, but oil companies such as Lukoil are making record profits. Lukoil is showing price of Urals crude as $40 per barrel in their returns, and then transporting this crude to the refineries that they own (ISAB refinery in Sicily, Zeeland Refinery in Rotterdam and refineries in Burgas and Constanta). Lukoil then process this crude and sells products at record margins. For the first three quarters of 2022, Lukoil increased the net profit to $8.6 billion. For the same period, Rosneft reported a net profit of $9.4 billion. Gazprom Neft reported profits of $6.7 billion (4x increase YoY). 

Your self-hypnosis deserves a special award. Tell me - when it's pouring rain, smog, dirt outside the window. Do you find a resource where it says that you have the sun and hot, put on flip flops, shorts and a T-shirt, and go to the beach? 

Those. indicators of REAL prices on exchanges, information even from Russian STATE publications, specialized companies that write and publish data on real transactions at real prices, reports from the Ministry of Statistics and the Ministry of Finance of Russia on the global drop in oil and gas revenues, and failure to fulfill plans to fill the budget through the sale of oil and gas - "not suitable information" for you, because you want it to be different? 

a few excerpts from the expanses of Russia itself:

- If in 2019 Gazprom's profit amounted to more than 1.2 trillion rubles, then in 2020 - only 135.3 billion rubles. The main reasons for the decline were the depreciation of the ruble and the fall in gas prices.
https://www.rbc.ru/business/29/04/2021/608a65999a79473d576883ba
- Gazprom reported a decrease in profit from 2.7 trillion rubles to 747 billion rubles year-on-year At the end of 2022, Gazprom's net profit under RAS amounted to 747.246 billion rubles, follows from the company's financial report. In 2021, Gazprom reported a net profit of 2.684 trillion rubles.
- The Russian monopolist Gazprom reported a drop in gas production in 2022. Thus, in January-September the company produced 313.3 billion cubic meters. m of natural gas, which is 17.1% (64.8 billion cubic meters) less than in 2021. At the same time, fuel exports to non-CIS countries amounted to 86.9 billion cubic meters. m is 40.4% (by 58.9 billion cubic meters) less than in the same period last year.
https://news.obozrevatel.com/economics/economy/dobyicha-i-eksport-gaza-iz-rossii-ruhnuli-otchet-gazproma.htm
- Russia's oil and gas revenues almost halved in February
https://www.forbes.ru/finansy/485672-dohody-rossii-ot-nefti-i-gaza-v-fevrale-sokratilis-pocti-vdvoe

[visionE2]

The impact of the war between Ukraine and Russia on the economy and everyday life like in my country. This conflict has disrupted gas supplies and raised gas prices in a number of countries.

Countries that rely heavily on gas imports from Russia or via Ukraine for their gas supplies like mine can experience a very significant impact on the economy and on the prices of goods. Because an increase in gas prices causes an increase in the price of staple goods and other products that require energy to be produced or shipped. I hope that conditions will improve and that the efforts made can help reduce the negative impact of the Ukrainian and Russian wars on the global economy.

[STT]

The gas price and restriction in supply has greatly effected fertilizer production which does become a global problem quite easily.   I already thought food production was a bull market this decade and the next but this unforeseen restriction has and will continue to cause problems in many countries.  It also restricts self production and requires countries to import even more foreign food produce, more stress on the dollar and global trade.
  Apparently Ukraine was a source of gas of another kind used in chip production.  Some stocks were stored for this event but eventually it will require alternate sources to appear or again the whole world has a constriction on chip supply and design or so I've read.   Again the market was already tight and disrupted in order flow by covid.

[DrBeer]

The gas price and restriction in supply has greatly effected fertilizer production which does become a global problem quite easily.   I already thought food production was a bull market this decade and the next but this unforeseen restriction has and will continue to cause problems in many countries.  It also restricts self production and requires countries to import even more foreign food produce, more stress on the dollar and global trade.
  Apparently Ukraine was a source of gas of another kind used in chip production.  Some stocks were stored for this event but eventually it will require alternate sources to appear or again the whole world has a constriction on chip supply and design or so I've read.   Again the market was already tight and disrupted in order flow by covid.

Let me dispel your strongly negative assumptions?
1. No more problems with hydrocarbons! Markets have redistributed, suppliers have changed. Moreover, Russian oil has fallen dramatically in price, which affects the cost of all derivatives from it. India and China buy it in huge quantities at a price of 30-35 dollars per barrel (although many do not like this information ). So there is no less oil, no less gas, but the price is still, temporarily, a little higher than the "pre-crisis" one.
2. Ukraine was the largest supplier of krypton gas to the world market (approximately 40% of the total world production). And yes, at the beginning of a new Russian terrorist attack on Ukraine, many foreshadowed the collapse of the processor market, due to problems with krypton. BUT .. As you can see - no collapse occurred, although production in Ukraine decreased - the barbaric terrorist goal of the "Russian world" is to completely destroy everything that the neighbor has. What they did with respect to one enterprise in the east of Ukraine. Nothing, we Ukrainians are hardworking people - we will rebuild and revive production

[Sithara007]

The gas price and restriction in supply has greatly effected fertilizer production which does become a global problem quite easily.   I already thought food production was a bull market this decade and the next but this unforeseen restriction has and will continue to cause problems in many countries.  It also restricts self production and requires countries to import even more foreign food produce, more stress on the dollar and global trade.
  Apparently Ukraine was a source of gas of another kind used in chip production.  Some stocks were stored for this event but eventually it will require alternate sources to appear or again the whole world has a constriction on chip supply and design or so I've read.   Again the market was already tight and disrupted in order flow by covid.

Back in 2020, pipeline natural gas was trading at $100 to $150 per thousand cubic meters. Now it's trading at $500 to $600 per k.cu.m (at one point in 2022, prices had crossed $3,000 per k.cu.m, but then it came down). At current levels, producing Ammonia fertilizer from natural gas is unaffordable for most of the industrial units. On top of that, the price of potash fertilizer has also risen thanks to the Russo-Ukrainian war (most of the global production comes from Russia and Belarus). And as a final nail in the coffin, the freight rates have also increased by manytimes.

[Argoo]

Back in 2020, pipeline natural gas was trading at $100 to $150 per thousand cubic meters. Now it's trading at $500 to $600 per k.cu.m (at one point in 2022, prices had crossed $3,000 per k.cu.m, but then it came down). At current levels, producing Ammonia fertilizer from natural gas is unaffordable for most of the industrial units. On top of that, the price of potash fertilizer has also risen thanks to the Russo-Ukrainian war (most of the global production comes from Russia and Belarus). And as a final nail in the coffin, the freight rates have also increased by manytimes.

You can see positive things in everything. The reserves of oil and gas on our planet are rapidly depleted. Mankind still needs to switch to alternative energy sources, especially in the light of recent events related to drastic climate change just because of the massive use of these carbohydrates. The rise in oil and gas prices will accelerate the transition to other types of energy, and above all to "green" energy.

[serveria.com]

Back in 2020, pipeline natural gas was trading at $100 to $150 per thousand cubic meters. Now it's trading at $500 to $600 per k.cu.m (at one point in 2022, prices had crossed $3,000 per k.cu.m, but then it came down). At current levels, producing Ammonia fertilizer from natural gas is unaffordable for most of the industrial units. On top of that, the price of potash fertilizer has also risen thanks to the Russo-Ukrainian war (most of the global production comes from Russia and Belarus). And as a final nail in the coffin, the freight rates have also increased by manytimes.

You can see positive things in everything. The reserves of oil and gas on our planet are rapidly depleted. Mankind still needs to switch to alternative energy sources, especially in the light of recent events related to drastic climate change just because of the massive use of these carbohydrates. The rise in oil and gas prices will accelerate the transition to other types of energy, and above all to "green" energy.

Yes but green energy has one significant drawback - it's expensive. And now, while the World economy hasn't recovered from covid blow and war blow swift migration to green energy is dangerous, because of huge expenses. Inflation, debt, layoffs etc etc and rapid shift to green energy is additional stress for common people. It should be done step-by-step and with some caution.

[Sithara007]

Yes but green energy has one significant drawback - it's expensive. And now, while the World economy hasn't recovered from covid blow and war blow swift migration to green energy is dangerous, because of huge expenses. Inflation, debt, layoffs etc etc and rapid shift to green energy is additional stress for common people. It should be done step-by-step and with some caution.

Another problem with green energy is that it is not that "green" anymore. Production of EVs require huge amounts of Cobalt and Lithium, and extraction of these minerals has resulted in considerable ecological damage. And then the obvious fact that green energy is expensive. In developed nations, people maybe able to afford electricity at $0.30 per KWh. But in the third world, that would mean less money to spend on food and medical care. The only affordable version of green energy is nuclear, but the tree-huggers are rabidly against it.

[DrBeer]

Now I will express my opinion. There will be many letters, but interesting thoughts come in the light of recent events.

It seems that the influence of Putin's pre-mortal activities will lead not only to economic influence but also to political changes in the world. And not for the benefit of outcast countries, such as Russia
If you study the news extensively about the activities of the Kremlin Fuhrer, then the following picture will emerge:
Realizing that the war is lost, the pathetic Kremlin Fuhrer is trying through all the "holes" to get at least some kind of support! These are UAVs begged from Iran, these are shells from North Korea, these are T34 tanks from Cambodia ... In the future, perhaps - North Korea will give up to 400,000 North Korean disposable citizens But this is all already "dust". Every action has a second side. For example, Iran has clearly received support from Russia in the development of nuclear weapons. North Korea - perhaps money in the pocket of Kim Jong-un and the continuation of clowning ...
As a result, we get: An operation to destroy its nuclear facilities will soon begin against Iran. And with them, most likely, the regime of the Ayatollah. North Korea - most likely will cease to be a "zoo" that feeds the whole world, and soon everything will end with the termination of their provision, and in the future - severe pressure on this world sewer. And also about all the "friends of the Kremlin" - "thanks" to their friendship with the terrorists of the Kremlin, they have real problems ahead!
China, logically chooses interaction with the Western world. India is making the same choice. These countries were called "friends of Russia" yesterday. True, only the Russians themselves called them "Friends", trying to convince themselves of "large international support"
In fact - that India, that China, simply "used" Russia, for a penny, and now they are turning away from it. No, China has not turned away at all. China has already begun to add to its map, a new, backward, depressive Chinese region - "NovoKitaishchina" or "KitaRusiya"

Therefore, we are stocking up on popcon - Xi correctly said "we are on the verge of changes that have not been seen for 100 years." True, Putin did not understand this at all correctly

[Smartprofit]

Now I will express my opinion. There will be many letters, but interesting thoughts come in the light of recent events.

It seems that the influence of Putin's pre-mortal activities will lead not only to economic influence but also to political changes in the world. And not for the benefit of outcast countries, such as Russia
If you study the news extensively about the activities of the Kremlin Fuhrer, then the following picture will emerge:
Realizing that the war is lost, the pathetic Kremlin Fuhrer is trying through all the "holes" to get at least some kind of support! These are UAVs begged from Iran, these are shells from North Korea, these are T34 tanks from Cambodia ... In the future, perhaps - North Korea will give up to 400,000 North Korean disposable citizens But this is all already "dust". Every action has a second side. For example, Iran has clearly received support from Russia in the development of nuclear weapons. North Korea - perhaps money in the pocket of Kim Jong-un and the continuation of clowning ...
As a result, we get: An operation to destroy its nuclear facilities will soon begin against Iran. And with them, most likely, the regime of the Ayatollah. North Korea - most likely will cease to be a "zoo" that feeds the whole world, and soon everything will end with the termination of their provision, and in the future - severe pressure on this world sewer. And also about all the "friends of the Kremlin" - "thanks" to their friendship with the terrorists of the Kremlin, they have real problems ahead!
China, logically chooses interaction with the Western world. India is making the same choice. These countries were called "friends of Russia" yesterday. True, only the Russians themselves called them "Friends", trying to convince themselves of "large international support"
In fact - that India, that China, simply "used" Russia, for a penny, and now they are turning away from it. No, China has not turned away at all. China has already begun to add to its map, a new, backward, depressive Chinese region - "NovoKitaishchina" or "KitaRusiya"

Therefore, we are stocking up on popcon - Xi correctly said "we are on the verge of changes that have not been seen for 100 years." True, Putin did not understand this at all correctly

I am a supporter of the point of view that there are no causal relationships in the world.  More precisely, of course, they exist, but they are so complex that they are inaccessible for analysis by an outside observer.  One cause may have several effects, or may not have any ...

Complex systems obey the laws of cybernetics (positive feedback, negative feedback).  As a result, it turns out that it is impossible to build a model for the forecast. 

I don't know what will happen to North Korea, India, China and other countries.  However, it can be said with great certainty that everything will be bad on the territory of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. 

Therefore, I do not condemn those people who are now leaving this region somewhere for Australia or New Zealand.  Why not? 

If you see that the people around you are behaving completely inadequate, what can you do?  How can the intellect stand up to a reptilian brain that is millions of years old? 

On the other hand, and those who remain, I also can not blame.  And I have no right. 

I am more concerned about two questions - when all this is over, where will people return?  Or will the world change so much that there will be nowhere to return?  And will anyone come back?  Maybe people will change so much internally that they will no longer be who they were originally? 

It's like in The Lord of the Rings - Galadriel gave Sam magical seeds that can be thrown into any land and a garden will grow.  And when Sam returned to the devastated Shire, he grew a garden.  And (most importantly) he remained in his soul the same hobbit that he was at the beginning of his journey (unlike Frodo, who was killed by the war). 

And the main question, it seems to me, is just this: will there be a gardener in our situation who can grow a garden again?  When will all this end?

[slapper]

Now I will express my opinion. There will be many letters, but interesting thoughts come in the light of recent events.

It seems that the influence of Putin's pre-mortal activities will lead not only to economic influence but also to political changes in the world. And not for the benefit of outcast countries, such as Russia
If you study the news extensively about the activities of the Kremlin Fuhrer, then the following picture will emerge:
Realizing that the war is lost, the pathetic Kremlin Fuhrer is trying through all the "holes" to get at least some kind of support! These are UAVs begged from Iran, these are shells from North Korea, these are T34 tanks from Cambodia ... In the future, perhaps - North Korea will give up to 400,000 North Korean disposable citizens But this is all already "dust". Every action has a second side. For example, Iran has clearly received support from Russia in the development of nuclear weapons. North Korea - perhaps money in the pocket of Kim Jong-un and the continuation of clowning ...
As a result, we get: An operation to destroy its nuclear facilities will soon begin against Iran. And with them, most likely, the regime of the Ayatollah. North Korea - most likely will cease to be a "zoo" that feeds the whole world, and soon everything will end with the termination of their provision, and in the future - severe pressure on this world sewer. And also about all the "friends of the Kremlin" - "thanks" to their friendship with the terrorists of the Kremlin, they have real problems ahead!
China, logically chooses interaction with the Western world. India is making the same choice. These countries were called "friends of Russia" yesterday. True, only the Russians themselves called them "Friends", trying to convince themselves of "large international support"
In fact - that India, that China, simply "used" Russia, for a penny, and now they are turning away from it. No, China has not turned away at all. China has already begun to add to its map, a new, backward, depressive Chinese region - "NovoKitaishchina" or "KitaRusiya"

Therefore, we are stocking up on popcon - Xi correctly said "we are on the verge of changes that have not been seen for 100 years." True, Putin did not understand this at all correctly

In light of recent events, it's clear that political and corporate relationships don't last forever in today's dynamic globe. Putin's actions and repercussions have altered international politics in addition to the global economy. Worryingly, the leader of the Kremlin is reaching out to aid out smaller countries. This exemplifies how defenseless people are and how aimless their lives are.

But keep in mind that every coin has two sides. Backing Iran's nuclear ambitions and North Korea's provocations will only bring to negative outcomes. This kind of action can no longer be ignored, and it appears that an operation to destroy Iran's nuclear sites is imminent. The decisions we make now will have lasting repercussions on the future of our kids and grandkids. Now is the time for us to band together as one human family and shape the future in our collective image.

Xi's observation that we're experiencing unprecedented change within a human lifetime is spot on. Let's not lose sight of the fact that we're in this together as a group. Let's improve the earth for our sake and the sake of future generations

[Sithara007]

The Zelensky junta has asked Ukraine's Orthodox Church (UOC) to vacate the premises of their headquarters (Pechersk Lavra). Now with every passing day, the actions of the junta is looking more like a genocide and ethnocide. First they banned a language that is used as a home language by more than 80% of the population. And now they are forcibly converting the Ukrainians to foreign faiths such as Catholicism and Evangelism. At the end of this war, both the sides will be tried for war crimes. And for Ukraine, the trial is going to be a lot more problematic than it is for Russia.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65117269

[Argoo]

The Zelensky junta has asked Ukraine's Orthodox Church (UOC) to vacate the premises of their headquarters (Pechersk Lavra). Now with every passing day, the actions of the junta is looking more like a genocide and ethnocide. First they banned a language that is used as a home language by more than 80% of the population. And now they are forcibly converting the Ukrainians to foreign faiths such as Catholicism and Evangelism. At the end of this war, both the sides will be tried for war crimes. And for Ukraine, the trial is going to be a lot more problematic than it is for Russia.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65117269

You have completely distorted the facts of objective reality, which are now taking place in Ukraine around the Kiev-Pechersk Lavra.

Kiev-Pechersk Lavra is a national reserve and belongs to the state of Ukraine.
The leadership of the National Reserve "Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra" demanded that the UOC of the Moscow Patriarchate leave the territory of the Lavra before March 29, based on the fact that due to violation of the lease terms by representatives of the UOC (MP), the lease was not extended. Besides,
the conducted examination found that the UOC-MP unreasonably calls itself Ukrainian and is actually part of the Russian Orthodox Church, which now supports the war in Ukraine and calls on Russians to kill Ukrainians. Many representatives of the so-called UOC-MP are agents of the Russian FSB and are accused of aiding the Russian occupiers and collaborating. The demand to expel Russian priests from the Ukrainian saints comes from the Ukrainian people and is supported by the government of Ukraine. This is not a persecution of the church, as Russia wants to present it.

The Kiev Pechersk Lavra will remain a national museum and representatives of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church will serve there. Already, the Primate of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU), Metropolitan Epiphanius, has appointed the Acting Viceroy of the Holy Dormition Kiev-Pechersk Lavra. They became a member of the Spiritual Council of the Lavra, Archimandrite Abraham. Metropolitan Epiphanius expressed the hope that the state would help protect the governor and the monastery from possible provocations by adherents of the Moscow Patriarchate.

The Russian language has never been banned in Ukraine. Every citizen of Ukraine can freely communicate with any language, including Russian. However, the Russian language is now deprived of the status of the state language and officials in business correspondence and communication with citizens were obliged to use the Ukrainian language as the only state language. Under the USSR, the Russian language was planted in all Soviet republics, and therefore, when attacking Ukraine, Russia used a far-fetched pretext to protect the Russian-speaking population.

[DrBeer]

I am a supporter of the point of view that there are no causal relationships in the world.  More precisely, of course, they exist, but they are so complex that they are inaccessible for analysis by an outside observer.  One cause may have several effects, or may not have any ...
Complex systems obey the laws of cybernetics (positive feedback, negative feedback).  As a result, it turns out that it is impossible to build a model for the forecast.  
I don't know what will happen to North Korea, India, China and other countries.  However, it can be said with great certainty that everything will be bad on the territory of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus.  
Therefore, I do not condemn those people who are now leaving this region somewhere for Australia or New Zealand.  Why not?  
If you see that the people around you are behaving completely inadequate, what can you do?  How can the intellect stand up to a reptilian brain that is millions of years old?  
On the other hand, and those who remain, I also can not blame.  And I have no right.  
I am more concerned about two questions - when all this is over, where will people return?  Or will the world change so much that there will be nowhere to return?  And will anyone come back?  Maybe people will change so much internally that they will no longer be who they were originally?  
It's like in The Lord of the Rings - Galadriel gave Sam magical seeds that can be thrown into any land and a garden will grow.  And when Sam returned to the devastated Shire, he grew a garden.  And (most importantly) he remained in his soul the same hobbit that he was at the beginning of his journey (unlike Frodo, who was killed by the war).  
And the main question, it seems to me, is just this: will there be a gardener in our situation who can grow a garden again?  When will all this end?

Your opinion has the right to life, as well as your opinion, and your point of view. It does not contradict anything, and it is normal for a democratic society to express different views!

But I have mine

I'm just a supporter of the approach that everything that happens has a logical, causal relationship. Yes - sometimes not lying on the surface.

And what is happening today in Ukraine, and not only in Ukraine and not only now - has its own point of "origin", action, or inaction.

And many thousands of forced migrants both inside Ukraine and those leaving Ukraine are a consequence. And yes, I don't judge people either. This is their attempt to escape, survive, settle down ... But not everyone does this. I didn't go anywhere, I stayed in Kiva, and my whole family stayed with me. My son supported me and together we enrolled in the Territorial Defense of Kyiv. Although I still have the opportunity to leave Ukraine! But I will not use this - this is MY country, this is MY land, this is MY homeland, and I will defend my right to live on my land, in my country, with my human laws! This is my choice, while I repeat once again - I do not blame those who left. I have one friend - he left in March 2022. I respect him for telling the truth. So he said - yes, I'm afraid, yes, I don't want to die. But I don't know how to fight, I'm weak physically. But I will earn money in Europe and I will transfer it to help ZSU, volunteer battalions, etc. and I will provide logistics from the EU to Ukraine. And he did. Through him, we bring to Ukraine a huge amount of much-needed help for us, something that does not go through official channels. And this person really brought more benefits than if he just ran with a machine gun.

Regarding the future, I agree about Russia and Belarus. Russia deserves to "serve its punishment", Belarus is a pity, but I hope after the defeat of Russia, and the Belarusian dictator will fall, and the fraternal people of Belarus will finally gain FREEDOM!

Ukraine will be all right - believe me! We know a hundred things to live well and right, we love to create and create comfort for ourselves. Our meaning of life is to live qualitatively and richly, and not for the sake of painful complexes of a crazy king