The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy

[pooya87]

~Let the people of Donbass vote on whether they want to remain in Ukraine or not. Why you are afraid about it?

Because democracy and people's vote is only good as long as it gives the result that the big players want (ie. United States), otherwise they oppose it just like what the West is doing these days. It's actually quite funny how Russia used the same "democracy" the Americans always advertise in those regions.

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[Gallar]

not only that, the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war in Western countries will affect inflation. Then in the Middle East and North Africa, in addition to rising commodity prices are also affected because these areas are tourist destinations for Russian and Ukrainian tourists. Meanwhile in Europe, the supply of natural gas is a big challenge there.

Russia and Ukraine have strategic roles in global trade. Of course this war will affect the supply chain owned by Russia and Ukraine," said Margo Yuwono, Head of BPS, in a press conference, Monday (4/18/2022).

So this Russian war will greatly affect the world economy.

source: cnbcIndonesia.

[Sithara007]

~Let the people of Donbass vote on whether they want to remain in Ukraine or not. Why you are afraid about it?

Because democracy and people's vote is only good as long as it gives the result that the big players want (ie. United States), otherwise they oppose it just like what the West is doing these days. It's actually quite funny how Russia used the same "democracy" the Americans always advertise in those regions.

Exactly. Americans never cared all this talk about territorial integrity when they invaded Kosovo (a part of Serbia) and then bombed hospitals and kindergartens in Belgrade to rubble.

BTW, it is surprising to see Saudi Arabia and Prince Salman solidly standing behind Russia. Yesterday it was announced that they would cut oil production by a massive 2 million barrels per day. And the significance of this announcement is that it comes a few months before the G7 is about to implement price cap on Russian crude. Any OPEC cut will make implementation of price cap extremely difficult.

[pooya87]

BTW, it is surprising to see Saudi Arabia and Prince Salman solidly standing behind Russia. Yesterday it was announced that they would cut oil production by a massive 2 million barrels per day. And the significance of this announcement is that it comes a few months before the G7 is about to implement price cap on Russian crude. Any OPEC cut will make implementation of price cap extremely difficult.

It is worth knowing that the Arabs have been making a shift towards Easter bloc for some time now.
I also believe that the recent military drill in Yemen where the armed forces revealed a lot of advanced weapons such as their ballistic missiles with 1500 km range had a much bigger message for the Saudi Khalifah, Bin Salman.

P.S. funny how Saudis had promised US to increase production a couple of months ago and some people believed that nonsense

[DrBeer]

It will be very interesting to see your reaction, for example, when Britain, which has done a lot for India, says that India should consider giving some territories to Iran and China! Well, to remove the tension that has existed for many decades.
And the same Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh are historical territories of China!
Will your reaction be the same or is it "a different case, and everything is completely different there"?
I guess you'll try to ignore the question, either "you get it all wrong" or "you don't know what you're talking about". But you can surprise!

In India we don't have anyone speaking Iranian (Farsi) or Chinese. So the situation is not comparable. And no part of India was ever part of either Iran or China. I want to know what is wrong in what Elon suggested. IMO, this is the only viable solution, which can bring an immediate end to this conflict.

 

I will answer in your style - so in the Donetsk region of Ukraine no one speaks the Moksha language or Korelian or Bashkir! Namely, these languages ​​\u200b\u200bof the "Russian people". This is for you to expand your knowledge

And back to India: "And no part of India has ever been part of either Iran or China" - okay? How is it never and none? Oh oh oh, what a selective memory!
Let me remind you for one thing - but what - in Ukraine there are territories that belonged to Russia or "Russians"? Or maybe remind you of the Kuban? About Taganrog and other regions of UKRAINE that were transferred to the RSFSR? You don't want to talk about it?

Well, about Musk - his proposal is bad because he absolutely does not understand the roots of the problem, but offers to make concessions to the aggressor, give him OUR territories, and give him reason to think that this can continue to be so. Then Britain claims all the territories of India where there is English ... Or what?

And the key question - tell me how please - what kind of state is RUSSIA? What was it called earlier and what did it include?
Well, for one thing, if you nod at the historical and linguistic roots, let's continue this topic, only relying on historical facts?
Moscow and the European part of the Russian Federation, according to YOUR concept, should return to their parents - Kyiv, to RUSS. Yes - RUSS, that is exactly what the historical name of the Slavic state on the territory of modern Ukraine sounds like, and not RUSSIA And why should they return to Ukraine, ACCORDING TO YOUR CONCEPT? Everything is extremely simple - because the citizens of RUSS were the creators of Moscow and most of the ancient cities of modern Russia. And even more so because ... Muscovites speak a language based on Slavic, which has been transformed from Ukrainian into an absolutely artificial "Great Russian". Read what language Muscovy spoke and wrote before the 17th century, you will be surprised!

And a task for you: explain when and where did the name RUSSIA come from?

[Argoo]

If there is actually a WW3, then it will take decades for the global economy to recover.

I don't think there would be anything left of the world to have an economy

Personally, I believe that Russia is waiting for winter to start. They will go on the attack mode by some time in November and till then they will continue to lose territory, especially in the regions of Kharkov and Kherson. The focus of the Russian army is primarily in Donbass, and this means that they are losing territory elsewhere.

I think they are basically trying to weaken NATO more before they start moving forward (hence waiting for winter). I also don't think they'll let any territories be lost in Kherson region since after the first plan was lost (annex anything west of Dnipro river) the main plan is to cut off Ukraine from the sea and basically reach Moldova by annexing all those regions in the south.
The bombardments of southern targets from Ochakiv to Odesa could be considered a proof of that plan.
Ukrainians haven't have that much success liberating those regions in Kherson front either.

What will the Russians do in anticipation of winter if their troops do not have proper equipment and winter clothing? Especially surrounded and pressed to the Dnieper by the Kherson group of Russian troops, which already had big problems with supplies, and after yesterday's damage to the Kerch bridge, which connects mainland Russia with the occupied Crimean peninsula, the situation there will be simply catastrophic. In this most combat-ready part of the Russian army, it will either surrender or die, because the retreat routes are under the complete control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
By the way, in recent weeks, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are moving very quickly in the Kherson direction, freeing approximately 1,200 square kilometers of their territory. From the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the houses of Kherson are already visible.

[pooya87]

What will the Russians do in anticipation of winter if their troops do not have proper equipment and winter clothing?

This reminded of the first days of the invasion when the Russians had forgotten to bring enough fuel and got stuck

In this most combat-ready part of the Russian army, it will either surrender or die, because the retreat routes are under the complete control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Are they really?
Looking at the site @DrBeer shared some time ago (https://deepstatemap.live/) all the occupied regions are directly connected to mainland Russia (through land or sea of Azov, also accessible through the Black sea).
The Ukraine progress is also pushing Russians back not surrounding them or cutting them from behind to be able to cut any of the supply/retreat routes.

[DrBeer]

^^^ In India there are dozens of languages with official regional status. The topic is different. Elon put forward some proposals to end the war. We are analyzing whether these proposals are feasible or not. And also whether these proposals, if put in place can stop the war immediately. IMO, if the proposals are put in place, then it can result in an immediate end to the war. Let the people of Donbass vote on whether they want to remain in Ukraine or not. Why you are afraid about it? The Russians seems to be OK with this proposal.

Why did you decide that in Donetsk or Lugansk, someone has the right to decide whether this territory will belong to sovereign Ukraine or not? Perhaps you just have a gap in knowledge? And you decided that the inhabitants of Russia ALWAYS LIVED there? Then I will upset you - NO! There was an ARTIFICIAL and FORCED eviction of the indigenous population (Ukrainians) from the 30s of the last century to the 60s, and in their place they brought rabble from the territory of the RSFSR. Who settled in the houses of those whom the Kremlin sent to death. Before declaring such nonsense - study the subject area

ZY.Total: according to your logic, it is necessary to give the right to all states of India - to decide - will they be part of Britain, or the USA, for example? After all, they speak English there, and representatives of Britain and the USA lived and live there

[landheer]

indeed this is a difficult situation for everyone in this world. due to war, and has a negative impact on society. such as fuel becomes expensive and so on. and many companies closed. and finally unemployment becomes a lot. and rampant. and I can only hope that the world economy will recover and prosper in the future. and may the war end soon.

yes it is, my friend, in fact, in my opinion, food prices are getting more expensive now, and what I fear is that in 2023 the economic situation will get worse, but we still have to be patient in living this life. Yes, I can only say hopefully in the future the economy will improve again. and running smoothly.

[Davian144]

yes it is, my friend, in fact, in my opinion, food prices are getting more expensive now, and what I fear is that in 2023 the economic situation will get worse, but we still have to be patient in living this life. Yes, I can only say hopefully in the future the economy will improve again. and running smoothly.

The war of a big country like Russia certainly triggers the inhibition of the goods needed so it is natural that food prices are now becoming more expensive due to the difficulty of production and also restrictions on the delivery of goods outside the region so that everyone has felt the impact. And this is clearly not good for the whole world because people who live in peaceful countries (without war) also have to feel the high price of the goods they need and that is a very unnatural thing even though it is happening right now.

Experts at a virtual symposium hosted by MIT's Center for Transport and Logistics said that "The Russo-Ukrainian War had a major impact on global supply chains, hampering the flow of goods, triggering dramatic cost increases and product shortages, and creating catastrophic food shortages around the world." And this is actually an effect that not everyone wants at this point, especially for those who are not fighting for their country. _{Source: mitsloan}

[Argoo]

What will the Russians do in anticipation of winter if their troops do not have proper equipment and winter clothing?

This reminded of the first days of the invasion when the Russians had forgotten to bring enough fuel and got stuck

In this most combat-ready part of the Russian army, it will either surrender or die, because the retreat routes are under the complete control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Are they really?
Looking at the site @DrBeer shared some time ago (https://deepstatemap.live/) all the occupied regions are directly connected to mainland Russia (through land or sea of Azov, also accessible through the Black sea).
The Ukraine progress is also pushing Russians back not surrounding them or cutting them from behind to be able to cut any of the supply/retreat routes.

About two months ago, the President of Ukraine in the Armed Forces of Ukraine openly declared that they were launching an offensive on the southern front. Russia, in response to this, pulled the most combat-ready units and a lot of all kinds of weapons into the Kherson region in southern Ukraine. The statements of the Ukrainian command were deliberate, because after the concentration of Russian troops on the right bank of the Dnieper, Ukraine damaged all four bridges across the Dnieper with high-precision missiles and approximately 25-30 thousand Russian invaders were actually trapped and surrounded. They cannot depart, because the wide Dnieper is behind them. So, the main Antonovsky bridge has a length of about 1300 meters. The Russians will not swim across there, and Russian barges and pontoon bridges are periodically destroyed. Therefore, for more than a month, the remnants of the regular Russian army have been without the necessary replenishment of equipment and ammunition, there is a problem with food and even with water and warm clothes. All this time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine regularly strike at command posts, ammunition depots and accumulations of manpower and equipment.

At the same time, from the beginning of October, the Armed Forces of Ukraine really went on the offensive against the exhausted Russian troops, freeing more than 1,100 square kilometers of their territory in the Kherson direction, which Russia had already managed to annex to the Russian Federation on paper. The ring over this grouping of Russian troops is shrinking. The Russians are increasingly surrendering. A major defeat is inevitable there, so Putin is looking for a decent way out of this war, but Ukraine does not leave any chances, despite the massive rocket attacks on peaceful Ukrainian cities in the past four days.

[DrBeer]

~Let the people of Donbass vote on whether they want to remain in Ukraine or not. Why you are afraid about it?

Because democracy and people's vote is only good as long as it gives the result that the big players want (ie. United States), otherwise they oppose it just like what the West is doing these days. It's actually quite funny how Russia used the same "democracy" the Americans always advertise in those regions.

2 Sithara007 : We are not afraid, by the way, unlike Russia, where even talking about freedom of expression is a criminal case Here is another point.
1. There is no Donbas people There is a population of Ukraine, in the UKRAINIAN region, where there is a certain part of the population that decided that they are unique and better than others. A variant of such a referendum is even described in Ukrainian legislation - an all-Ukrainian referendum, because. this is a question of the ALL PEOPLE of Ukraine. But not under gun barrels, without total falsifications (did you watch the video that I dumped? ) In the presence of real observers. But even here there is a nuance - neither insignificant groups of separatists nor the terrorist country Russia accept such an option.
And once again - the Dutch, the British lived in India for many centuries - let's their heirs vote for the entry of part of India into Britain or the Netherlands? Answer the question - do you agree with this idea? If not - why not?

2 pooya87 : Tell me - for what reason, in Russia:
- destroyed the independent Republic of Ichkeria, which held a referendum and the majority of the population decided to be an independent country?
- Why are such referendums strictly prohibited in Russian legislation? With the most amusing fact - this ban was introduced immediately after the "referendum" that the occupation troops of Russia "held" in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea?

And the answer to both of you - first, on a personal example, in your countries, hold referendums (see the features above)!

[DrBeer]

P.S. funny how Saudis had promised US to increase production a couple of months ago and some people believed that nonsense

Can you prove that there was no increase in oil production? I am ready to grant you the right to publish here statistics on oil production in the interval July 2022 - October 2022! And let's see if the promise was kept or not? The fact that they have now decided to PULL back oil production by 2 million barrels is a situational decision that has many reasons, at least personal commercial ones. But be that as it may, the market got a little "nervous" and went down again.. no, not by $200, but by 75 from 80

Real time chart:
https://ru.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-urals-spot-futures-streaming-chart

[Abiky]

The war of a big country like Russia certainly triggers the inhibition of the goods needed so it is natural that food prices are now becoming more expensive due to the difficulty of production and also restrictions on the delivery of goods outside the region so that everyone has felt the impact. And this is clearly not good for the whole world because people who live in peaceful countries (without war) also have to feel the high price of the goods they need and that is a very unnatural thing even though it is happening right now.

Experts at a virtual symposium hosted by MIT's Center for Transport and Logistics said that "The Russo-Ukrainian War had a major impact on global supply chains, hampering the flow of goods, triggering dramatic cost increases and product shortages, and creating catastrophic food shortages around the world." And this is actually an effect that not everyone wants at this point, especially for those who are not fighting for their country. _{Source: mitsloan}

Just when we were seeing signs of the global economy recovering during the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia decided to invade Ukraine for no reason. Now things are worse than they were before, with inflation rates soaring towards new heights. I don't think central banks' measures to control inflation will work because the war has caused a huge disruption in the global supply chain. Nations need to solve these problems first before talking about a possible recovery of their local economies. Putin was right when he said "sanctions have backfired".

Now the world is feeling the pain as rising food, energy, and gas prices make the average person poorer than before. Most people have a high cost of living thanks to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Unless the two countries come into some sort of agreement (peace deal?), the world economy will continue to deteriorate until there will be no room for recovery. There are talks about a deep recession by 2023, meaning more pain ahead for lower and middle class people. Let's hope it'll all be over soon, so we could get back to normal. Just my thoughts

[Jatiluhung]

If I pay attention to the impact of war on the global economic crisis, I see that the phenomenon or effect of this war is really similar to the concept of 'Butterfly effect' which was first introduced by Edward Norton Lorenz. he calls it that because it refers to the fluttering of a butterfly's wings in the Brazilian jungle that can produce a tornado in Texas. the effect was initially not so great for some countries, but it turns out that the more it is here the effect really has a big impact on almost all countries in the world. then it really reminds me of the 'Butterfly effect'. and that means it could be from the war Russia and Ukraine could make other countries join the war. even now NATO has helped Ukraine. which means the war is now even bigger because it's like the war of Russia vs. Nato. I became more worried about the growing impact and triggering world war 3. Even the current economic condition is really affected by the war that happened. triggered by gas and energy supply and spread to other sectors.

I am usually a relaxed person. but now I'm a more worried person. especially in economic terms. thus forcing myself personally to make preparations to anticipate what will happen in the future on global economic conditions. Even the well-known Chinese economy is still experiencing an increase in inflation, which is up to 2.8% (Based on CPI data). it's not a big number. but the economic movements of China and America always have a big impact on the global economy, especially in market movements. be it stocks or crypto.

[Pejoh Asu]

Of course, the impact of the Russian vs Ukraine war has been felt, this can be seen from my country that has difficulty meeting oil needs because it has long depending on oil and gas from Russia, it is not easy to find a country that wants oil and gas supply because the needs of oil and gas always rise and cannot buy freely.

[pooya87]

Can you prove that there was no increase in oil production?

Oil production does not have a switch that you can flip to increase the cap specially when you are production at maximum capacity possible. Even more so when you are at war. The situation with Saudis is actually very similar to Russians. They too have invaded their neighbor and have been at war for a long time. The only difference is that their neighbor is not desperately begging Americans to give them very short range missiles that could barely reach 300 km range, but with the help of their allies they've managed to manufacture long range ballistic missiles with a range higher than 1500 km that has allowed them to hit their invader's infrastructure.
Hence the attack on Saudi oil production facilities and the decreased production that has not gone back up again.

P.S. This morning Saudis bombed Al Hudaydah and the armed forces of Yemen threatened to retaliate. We have to wait and see if Aramco goes up in smokes again and how much oil production is going to decrease this time if it does. Last time it was cut by half if I'm not mistaken.

[Sithara007]

^^^ I have a feeling that the Saudis are not very keen to maintain their production levels. Already there is some tension between Riyadh and Washington over the output cuts announced last time:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/14/middleeast/us-saudi-oil-spat-options-mime-intl/index.html
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/white-house-pushes-back-saudi-claim-oil-cut-was-purely-economic-2022-10-13/

If the production capacity gets impacted as a result of missile strikes from Yemen, then I believe that at least some of the government officials in Saudi would be happy about it.

[Argoo]

Of course, the impact of the Russian vs Ukraine war has been felt, this can be seen from my country that has difficulty meeting oil needs because it has long depending on oil and gas from Russia, it is not easy to find a country that wants oil and gas supply because the needs of oil and gas always rise and cannot buy freely.

Now mankind has approached the dangerous line of relatively rapid global climate change, and largely due to the fact that large quantities of oil, gas, and their processed products - gasoline, diesel fuel, fuel oil, etc. are burned in large quantities. Scientists predict that after some time In some parts of the Earth, the temperature will rise to 50 degrees or more, and life there will be impossible. And this is just the beginning.

Now the countries of the European Union are refusing Russian oil and gas not only in order not to sponsor the war by paying a terrorist state for these energy resources and to avoid blackmailing Russia. These countries are adopting accelerated programs for the irrevocable transition to alternative sources of "green" energy, which will not have such a detrimental effect on the planet's climate.

Your country also needs to gradually phase out the consumption of oil and gas if you want not only your children, but many future generations of people to live on Earth.

[Sithara007]

With apprx 55 thoud Russian soldiers killed and 5000 vehicle destroyed and almost 3000 tanks being destroyed - Russian president has no remorse for what he has done to his country still he thinks that he has taken goood timely action. I dont know what their powerful authorities not been able to think that they are destroying families and destroying upcoming genentionations

A large part of the Russian military deaths are not from the armed forces. Thousands of Ukrainian citizens were drafted in to the militias of DNR and LNR in the recent months, and according to their official stats, around 5,000 have died. PMC Wagner has suffered thousands of casualties, along with other private militias. And most of the Russian military deaths have been from rural areas of Buryatia, Tyva, Daghestan and Ossetia. Unless conscripts from major cities such as Moscow and Kazan starts dying, the public opinion won't change.