2023 Diff thread now opened.

[philipma1957]

When you see this growth and increased power use  what is left in the tank?

The joy and fomo over this rally is scary, these gears that are coming online, stocks are getting sucked as they come, many random folks on social media are already picking their "best performing altcoin", all of this is not likely going to end well.

I believe over the course of several months BTC price will likely put a lower low and rekt everyone, I do not see the current hashrate can be sustained for long.

so dark bro.  well a big crash means I get cheaper coins and gear.

I will wait and see.

I do wonder if we go to 35k-40k price  fast by April 1 does diff follow or do we run out of gas on the gear end?

the 2017 Jan -Dec price runup crushed the 2017Jan-DEC diff run-up.

it took most of 2018 to have diff catch up.

[1714291606]

1714291606

[mikeywith]

I might be a bear, but what do you think phill? You have seen more bear markets than I did, does this feel like and end to the bear market? Do you think the suffering was good enough?

Difficulty will always lag, but would be reacting faster now than in 2018, given that many gears now run on different power modes and adapt a lot faster.

[philipma1957]

I might be a bear, but what do you think phill? You have seen more bear markets than I did, does this feel like and end to the bear market? Do you think the suffering was good enough?

Difficulty will always lag, but would be reacting faster now than in 2018, given that many gears now run on different power modes and adapt a lot faster.

July 2019?

If I had to guess I am inclined to guess we are at that point or approaching that point.

it reached 12.5 k on JULY 11 2019

I think we could get to 30k in next 2-3 weeks  and then tank a lot.  maybe to 13k

[kano]

The general long term expected pattern is bitcoin rising.

The times it has risen noticeably, there has for the last 5 years, been a different landscape affecting the ups and downs each time.

Alas looking at history with BTC is too short a time frame and since each time is also different, using history as a guide is just as good as listening to the so called random experts saying what will happen (and trying to cause self-fulfilling prophecies) and usually getting it wrong

As always, would be good if it went up, as always there's a strong factor from who wants to sell out and how big they are, a lesser effect of the fiat financial market, but also random social media effects - on top of all the direct bitcoin effects of miner and power costs.

i.e. who knows

[philipma1957]

The general long term expected pattern is bitcoin rising.

The times it has risen noticeably, there has for the last 5 years, been a different landscape affecting the ups and downs each time.

Alas looking at history with BTC is too short a time frame and since each time is also different, using history as a guide is just as good as listening to the so called random experts saying what will happen (and trying to cause self-fulfilling prophecies) and usually getting it wrong

As always, would be good if it went up, as always there's a strong factor from who wants to sell out and how big they are, a lesser effect of the fiat financial market, but also random social media effects - on top of all the direct bitcoin effects of miner and power costs.

i.e. who knows

Yep my rise to 30k in 3 weeks and tank to 13k after that. could be off by a factor of 2 or 3

It could simply slide downwards for months to come and not go to a level above 20k. for 5 or ten years

Hell gold was in a 200 - 400 dollar side ways slot 1992 to 2003

btc could stay in a 20k to 70 k  slot for 25 years.  Its all pretty new and not very easy to predict.

[stompix]

The joy and fomo over this rally is scary, these gears that are coming online, stocks are getting sucked as they come, many random folks on social media are already picking their "best performing altcoin", all of this is not likely going to end well.

It's not that scary yet, wait for the moment when I turn bullish also, that's the moment you know something bad is going to happen 
But I would agree that everyone seems to be acting like kids before a vacation, with so much exuberance and so much confidence that we're going to enter a completely bullish market and a period of mass adoption just like that, out of the blue suddenly complete reverse.

And in mining, even crazier

Current Pace:   111.3786%  (1774 / 1592.77 expected, 181.23 ahead)

Ok, it might not be new gear, it might also be a lot of low/high modes getting switched, but we're still talking about at least 100k new, and for the rest it would mean half of the gear was running in the low settings, and suddenly, when the revenue went from 6 to 8 cents per th/s, it becomes more viable to mine full power, I find it near impossible to believe so much would be at such tight profit margins.

I'm glad I'm out of this and switched to hobby-style mining with just two of them left, I'm so relieved that I don't even care anymore if the revenue drops to 5 or even 3 cents per th/s, I'll let them mine till they die.

It could simply slide downwards for months to come and not go to a level above 20k. for 5 or ten years

Yup, permabull detected, I dare you to go to the WO topic and share this scenario! 

[philipma1957]

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   778119  (4 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   110.8839%  (1960 / 1767.61 expected, 192.39 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   39350942467772.63                            
Current Difficulty:   39156400059293.19                            
Next Difficulty:   between 43419327117756 and 43422977639816
Next Difficulty Change:   between +10.8869% and +10.8962%
Previous Retarget:   February 12, 2023 at 2:50 AM  (-0.4944%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 5:52 PM  (in 0d 8h 25m 1s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 5:53 PM  (in 0d 8h 26m 33s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 15h 1m 10s and 12d 15h 2m 42s
Copy stats to clipboard

so 10% close to 30eh

ugh

a clear move past 40th

ugh ugh

I am curious to see the  next jump.

It would be impressive to see +5% on top of this number.

Oh China is looking to negotiate peace for Ukraine and Russia



https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/world/china-offers-to-mediate-russia-ukraine-war-peace-negotiations-after-president-volodymyr-zelenskky-warns-of-world-war-vladimir-putin-xi-jinping-2023-02-21-849159#



maybe a white swan event  vs a black swan event one can only hope..



hmmm maybe some good news for the world

[mikeywith]

It's not that scary yet, wait for the moment when I turn bullish also, that's the moment you know something bad is going to happen  

Lol, I remember you were bearish on difficulty and ever since the difficulty has doubled, I would be more interested in your thoughts about mining difficulty than price

Oh China is looking to negotiate peace for Ukraine and Russia

The Chinese are just bluffing, they are sending drones and war tech to Russia, they need the Russians to win this war, and they will keep fueling this war for as long as it takes, if Russia doesn't take eastern Ukraine, it will be tough for China to take Taiwan, also as long as the current U.S administration is still there, I wouldn't raise my hopes so high on any potential peace.

Latest Block:   778159  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   110.3307%  (2000 / 1812.73 expected, 187.27 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   39350942467772.63                            
Current Difficulty:   39156400059293.19                            
Next Difficulty:   between 43205933105789 and 43206214577449
Next Difficulty Change:   between +10.3419% and +10.3427%
Previous Retarget:   February 12, 2023 at 9:50 AM  (-0.4944%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 2:23 AM  (in 0d 2h 25m 1s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 2:23 AM  (in 0d 2h 25m 8s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 16h 32m 20s and 12d 16h 32m 27s

So roughly 2 hours for the current epoch, a massive 10% increase, meanwhile the price of Bitcoin is slowly dropping.

[stompix]

It's not that scary yet, wait for the moment when I turn bullish also, that's the moment you know something bad is going to happen  

Lol, I remember you were bearish on difficulty and ever since the difficulty has doubled, I would be more interested in your thoughts about mining difficulty than price

I was more bearish because I wanted that to happen and I looked only at things that we were enforcing that view, that's the reason I don't trade because I'm not really good at differentiating between things I want to happen and things any cold-blooded analysis will tell me are more likely.

Now the bad news  , even without real money at stake now I'm still bearish on the growth, not on the difficulty itself but on the pace it's going to grow from now on, without a price increase I don't see spectacular stuff like this event happening more than twice again, even without a negative adjustment. I'm away so I can't check the actual income for the last week but viabtc shows 6.5cents per Th/s doubling again with no price increase, common at 3 cents income most of them are going bankrupt before that.
So, growth, but timid growth compared to price more driven by already purchased gear than economic reasoning.

[philipma1957]

Early numbers are whacked.

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   778240  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   72.0918%  (65 / 90.16 expected, 25.16 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   39156400059293.19                            
Current Difficulty:   43053844193928.45                            
Next Difficulty:   between 31256691304059 and 42046996715428
Next Difficulty Change:   between -27.4009% and -2.3386%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 8:27 PM  (+9.9535%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   March 11, 2023 at 4:43 AM  (in 13d 17h 13m 30s)
Next Retarget (latest):   March 16, 2023 at 7:32 AM  (in 18d 19h 2m 43s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 8h 15m 8s and 19d 10h 4m 20s
Copy stats to clipboard

I know there is 'bad' luck and or variance.

But -28% is weird.

[philipma1957]

Early numbers are whacked.

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   778240  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   72.0918%  (65 / 90.16 expected, 25.16 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   39156400059293.19                            
Current Difficulty:   43053844193928.45                            
Next Difficulty:   between 31256691304059 and 42046996715428
Next Difficulty Change:   between -27.4009% and -2.3386%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 8:27 PM  (+9.9535%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   March 11, 2023 at 4:43 AM  (in 13d 17h 13m 30s)
Next Retarget (latest):   March 16, 2023 at 7:32 AM  (in 18d 19h 2m 43s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 8h 15m 8s and 19d 10h 4m 20s
Copy stats to clipboard

I know there is 'bad' luck and or variance.

But -28% is weird.

Best case is the Ukraine firebombed a huge Russian mining farm or Russia firebombed a huge Ukraine mining farm.

[mikeywith]

Now the bad news  , even without real money at stake now I'm still bearish on the growth, not on the difficulty itself but on the pace it's going to grow from now on, without a price increase I don't see spectacular stuff like this event happening more than twice again

We need to keep in mind that miners are irrational and many of them bet on the price to increase, if you take the average gear in the current world as S19j pro, the profit after power is as follows


10 cents > 30 cents/day
8 cents  >  1.7$/day
6 cents > 3.2$/day

It's probably safe to assume that 6 cents are near average, S19j pro 100th goes for about $1600 nowadays, so even at 3$/day it's still tempting coming at 500 days ROI, 1.4 years ROI is pretty decent to most folks, I am not saying they will ROI in that period, they most likely won't as the halving will come, price go could lower, gears may fail, but the numbers on papers look pretty good, of course, another 20-30% diff increase without price increase will make things look a lot less attractive, but as it stands right now the numbers don't look too bad.

One main thing that might be missing in the logic above is what impact will this have on those running older gears and/or pay more than 6 cents, and how many of those are mining at breakeven or even a loss, so a 5% increase in difficulty could very well result in 10% of the inefficient hashrate to leave, it could be 1:1 ratio, or 2:1 or 1:2, it's impossible to tell, but those who have the infrastructure, 6 cents or lower rate, and are looking to expand, they will probably keep doing so for a few months to come.

[philipma1957]

Now the bad news  , even without real money at stake now I'm still bearish on the growth, not on the difficulty itself but on the pace it's going to grow from now on, without a price increase I don't see spectacular stuff like this event happening more than twice again

We need to keep in mind that miners are irrational and many of them bet on the price to increase, if you take the average gear in the current world as S19j pro, the profit after power is as follows


10 cents > 30 cents/day
8 cents  >  1.7$/day
6 cents > 3.2$/day

It's probably safe to assume that 6 cents are near average, S19j pro 100th goes for about $1600 nowadays, so even at 3$/day it's still tempting coming at 500 days ROI, 1.4 years ROI is pretty decent to most folks, I am not saying they will ROI in that period, they most likely won't as the halving will come, price go could lower, gears may fail, but the numbers on papers look pretty good, of course, another 20-30% diff increase without price increase will make things look a lot less attractive, but as it stands right now the numbers don't look too bad.

One main thing that might be missing in the logic above is what impact will this have on those running older gears and/or pay more than 6 cents, and how many of those are mining at breakeven or even a loss, so a 5% increase in difficulty could very well result in 10% of the inefficient hashrate to leave, it could be 1:1 ratio, or 2:1 or 1:2, it's impossible to tell, but those who have the infrastructure, 6 cents or lower rate, and are looking to expand, they will probably keep doing so for a few months to come.

Yet we are down 20%

It is as if the wild fluxes for btc are not in price but in diff

+11% followed by -20% = too big a swing.

I am sure there is a reason for the extra low number.

but 330eh dropping 20% means 66eh is now off line.

66eh
66,000ph
66,000,000 th

660,000 s19 100 th units off line.

these swings are weird.

I wonder what happened?

[mikeywith]

Phill, it was too early to judge, we climbed up real fast

Latest Block:
778444  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:
96.5416%  (269 / 278.64 expected, 9.64 behind)
Previous Difficulty:
39156400059293.19                           
Current Difficulty:
43053844193928.45                           
Next Difficulty:
between 41659082621125 and 42697802191261
Next Difficulty Change:
between -3.2396% and -0.8270%
Previous Retarget:
last Saturday at 3:27 AM  (+9.9535%)
Next Retarget (earliest):
March 11, 2023 at 6:27 AM  (in 12d 4h 33m 30s)
Next Retarget (latest):
March 11, 2023 at 3:30 PM  (in 12d 13h 35m 49s)
Projected Epoch Length:
between 14d 2h 59m 51s and 14d 12h 2m 10s

20% was unreal to be honest, 3% is sustainable, maybe 5% at best, i do not see a drop more than that happening this epoch, i actually think we will get a small positive adjustment.

[philipma1957]

Phill, it was too early to judge, we climbed up real fast

Latest Block:
778444  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:
96.5416%  (269 / 278.64 expected, 9.64 behind)
Previous Difficulty:
39156400059293.19                           
Current Difficulty:
43053844193928.45                           
Next Difficulty:
between 41659082621125 and 42697802191261
Next Difficulty Change:
between -3.2396% and -0.8270%
Previous Retarget:
last Saturday at 3:27 AM  (+9.9535%)
Next Retarget (earliest):
March 11, 2023 at 6:27 AM  (in 12d 4h 33m 30s)
Next Retarget (latest):
March 11, 2023 at 3:30 PM  (in 12d 13h 35m 49s)
Projected Epoch Length:
between 14d 2h 59m 51s and 14d 12h 2m 10s

20% was unreal to be honest, 3% is sustainable, maybe 5% at best, i do not see a drop more than that happening this epoch, i actually think we will get a small positive adjustment.

I figure +2%

but not sure how all that hash could be 20% behind on block 100

[mikeywith]

Now with nearly 500 blocks into this diff epoch we can say with some level of confidence that we both could be wrong and end up actually having a small drop.

Latest Block:
778660  (5 minutes ago)
Current Pace:
97.2108%  (485 / 498.92 expected, 13.92 behind)
Previous Difficulty:
39156400059293.19                           
Current Difficulty:
43053844193928.45                           
Next Difficulty:
between 41905922460303 and 42560370344304
Next Difficulty Change:
between -2.6662% and -1.1462%
Previous Retarget:
last Saturday at 3:27 AM  (+9.9535%)
Next Retarget (earliest):
March 11, 2023 at 7:32 AM  (in 10d 16h 55m 40s)
Next Retarget (latest):
March 11, 2023 at 1:06 PM  (in 10d 22h 29m 16s)
Projected Epoch Length:
between 14d 4h 4m 49s and 14d 9h 38m 25s

Still tho, long way for confirmation, I will be happy if it turns out that i was wrong about a positive adjustment.

[stompix]

Still tho, long way for confirmation, I will be happy if it turns out that i was wrong about a positive adjustment.

You and your fudge! 

Latest Block:   778883  (3 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   100.6615%  (708 / 703.35 expected, 4.65 ahead)

So it recovered 30 blocks in 600, that's a 5% pace if we exclude the first day.
If we go with the next value, it's 18 blocks in 200, that's way worse, nearly double.
Current 24-hour pace is 169 blocks according to blockchair, making it again worse than the previous.

So, I think I really need to shut up babbling about limited hashrate growth, the madness doesn't really look to be out of steam.
This is from Bitfarms:

In addition, with $22.4 million in credits for the purchase of miners and 40 MW of built capacity at our Argentina farm, as soon as miners can be imported there, we will require minimal capital outlays to bring on substantial additional production.

Best case is the Ukraine firebombed a huge Russian mining farm or Russia firebombed a huge Ukraine mining farm.

I doubt there is any Ukrainian mining farm online, they are rationing electricity as much as they can, and no way with main cities in blackouts would they allow a farm to keep running. Besides, the drop actually happened at a moment of relative silence around there with no raids or explosions happening, it got worse today, but this would coincide with a spike, not a drop.

[philipma1957]

So if we are around 330eh and it is all 30 watt on average.

we are doing 9900 megawatts.

a bit tired but i think the numbers are close.

we went plus diff and we are tanking in price 22.4k

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   779061  (a few seconds ago)

Current Pace:   101.3498%  (886 / 874.20 expected, 11.8 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   39156400059293.19                           
Current Difficulty:   43053844193928.45                           
Next Difficulty:   between 43472121483014 and 43666462650978
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.9715% and +1.4229%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 8:27 PM  (+9.9535%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   March 10, 2023 at 3:59 PM  (in 7d 17h 49m 30s)
Next Retarget (latest):   March 10, 2023 at 5:23 PM  (in 7d 19h 13m 51s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 19h 31m 30s and 13d 20h 55m 51s
Copy stats to clipboard

[mikeywith]

Actually, I can't wait to see what would the halving do to all of this hashrate, I remember back in 2020 hashrate almost doubled in 8-9 months right AFTER the halving, but then of course the price went up nearly 200%, so 12.5BTC at 10k BTC vs 6.25 BTC at 30k, almost 50% increase in profitability.

Also, during the 4-5 months post-halving, profitability was at an all-time low, after exactly 5 months from the halving, the profitability was the lowest for years to come, so the question now remains, will BTC jump 200% 8-9 months post halving? if it does not, then many miners will go broke, really, the next halving will be no joke.

[stompix]

Also, during the 4-5 months post-halving, profitability was at an all-time low, after exactly 5 months from the halving, the profitability was the lowest for years to come, so the question now remains, will BTC jump 200% 8-9 months post halving? if it does not, then many miners will go broke, really, the next halving will be no joke.

It will probably jump even more than 200% before that, everyone wants a pump so bad it will probably happen just like that and no other reason, a sudden FOMO out of nowhere, which will make things even more interesting, putting more gear on the market and driving the hashrate sky high, the profitability down back to the levels that we see now, only to have the revenue slash in half and no instant growth on the horizon by the halving . Makes me think of expressions like "the bigger they are, the harder they fall", nobody really cares about a few bitcoin mining companies going broke, it's just a few tens million, but if these double or quadruple in value and "investments" it's going to be a fun ride.

Mara is set to deploy up to 23EH by the end of Q2, their report for February shows 9.5EH, Riot is falling behind, lol, adding just 3EH in this period, we're going to continue to grow for sure, probably not at 10% paces but small 1-5% steps per period.

And Bitmain is selling gear that will ROI in 1100 days at 5 cents, and in 5 years at 7/kwh