2023 Diff thread now opened.

[mikeywith]

I'm getting good at this kind of manipulation! 
But honestly, I'm surprised, probably because I'm more impulsive I would have expected this jump in price to trigger more of that overclocking and even bringing a bunch of old hardware online again, munching on every bit of extra power a facility has.
1.4% is....disappointing I would say!

Of course, you had to talk about it and now it's no longer the case, if only you waited two more days, you would could have won and the rest of all would have been happy with a tiny difficulty increase  .

We jumped to 102.3% now, so as it stands right now, we do have a winner if nothing changes

19) +2.31 to +2.63% NeuroticFish

Thought I honestly doubt we end up in this range, I think now slightly below 2% is more likely, so 'Iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2' has a good chance.

[1714240776]

1714240776

[1714240776]

1714240776

[1714240776]

1714240776

[joker_josue]

both. but we have no more room for solar. and the 320kwatt onsite transformer is pretty maxed out.

Interesting. In the case of solar energy, what is the production capacity?
Are there times of the day when they can operate on 100% solar energy, or has it never happened?


_{Sorry for the off topic, if there is another topic to talk about this, say so.}

[NeuroticFish]

19) +2.31 to +2.63% NeuroticFish

Thought I honestly doubt we end up in this range, I think now slightly below 2% is more likely

Imho two intervals before this one and two intervals after this make a range with all greatly possible outcomes.
I've noticed (but maybe it's just me) that just before the end of period sometimes the diff drops a little, but now the trend is upwards and it's weekend (and maybe they don't keep such a close eye on their business).

we have no more room for solar. and the 320kwatt onsite transformer is pretty maxed out.

This is an impressive info (it may be old and then I've missed it).
Plans to expand (ie new site) in/after the bull run?

[philipma1957]

19) +2.31 to +2.63% NeuroticFish

Thought I honestly doubt we end up in this range, I think now slightly below 2% is more likely

Imho two intervals before this one and two intervals after this make a range with all greatly possible outcomes.
I've noticed (but maybe it's just me) that just before the end of period sometimes the diff drops a little, but now the trend is upwards and it's weekend (and maybe they don't keep such a close eye on their business).

we have no more room for solar. and the 320kwatt onsite transformer is pretty maxed out.

This is an impressive info (it may be old and then I've missed it).
Plans to expand (ie new site) in/after the bull run?

its all about finding sites.

I am not a kid 66 will turn into 67 this Jan if the universe lets me .

So I want a site that is under 2 hours from my home.

I am in Howell the mine is in Clifton 75 miles away from me.

So A) maybe we add a 500kwatt transformer if we get a telsa superchager grant for 3 chargers.

we would run two of three and have 200 kwatts for mining. so we could grow from

240kwatts of 320 kwatts add 200 out of 500 kwatts.

grand total 440 kwatts.

I give that case about one in five chance for 2024.

Or B) we find a suitable site closer with 2 acres for a ground mount solar array. maybe one in ten shot.

Or C) stand pat.

[mikeywith]

I've noticed (but maybe it's just me) that just before the end of period sometimes the diff drops a little

The key word is "sometimes", although there is a somehow 'common' theory or rather a conspiracy theory that miners slow down a little towards the end of the difficulty epoch so that in the next epoch they manage to mine more blocks with the same hashrate, this thing will need a dedicated thread to discuss it in detail, my take on this subject is that it does NOT exist and there is no pre-determined/planned/manipulation path of the difficulty adjustments, what happens towards the end of every epoch is only the result of network luck and people plugging or unplugging gears for other purposes.

 

Plans to expand (ie new site) in/after the bull run?

Expanding during the bull run is the worst time one can choose, history has shown us that through every previous bull run.

[philipma1957]

I've noticed (but maybe it's just me) that just before the end of period sometimes the diff drops a little

The key word is "sometimes", although there is a somehow 'common' theory or rather a conspiracy theory that miners slow down a little towards the end of the difficulty epoch so that in the next epoch they manage to mine more blocks with the same hashrate, this thing will need a dedicated thread to discuss it in detail, my take on this subject is that it does NOT exist and there is no pre-determined/planned/manipulation path of the difficulty adjustments, what happens towards the end of every epoch is only the result of network luck and people plugging or unplugging gears for other purposes.

 

Plans to expand (ie new site) in/after the bull run?

Expanding during the bull run is the worst time one can choose, history has shown us that through every previous bull run.

well depends on when and how you define the bull run.

For miners this is a pre 1/2 ing miners relief rally

For traders that got in at 16 k last fall this is the bull run.

If I could magically add the 500kwatt transformer and the Tesla chargers by mid November I would and I would order

s19xp's
s21s
t21s
m60's
L7's

We would add over 60 units


But 3 partners and the time line would never allow me to have all that done by Nov 15th.

Even by Jan 1.


https://newhedge.io/

Latest Block:   814284  (6 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   103.0576%  (1837 / 1782.50 expected, 54.5 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   57321508229258.04                            
Current Difficulty:   61030681983175.59                            
Next Difficulty:   between 62879093010342 and 62894229442180
Next Difficulty Change:   between +3.0287% and +3.0535%
Previous Retarget:   October 16, 2023 at 7:33 AM  (+6.4708%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 9:35 PM  (in 1d 4h 56m 53s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 9:40 PM  (in 1d 5h 1m 36s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 14h 1m 52s and 13d 14h 6m 35s


it has moved past 3%


01)  -3.43 to -3.11%
02)  -3.10 to -2.88%
03)  -2.87 to -2.55%
04)  -2.54 to -2.22%
05)  -2.21 to -1.99%
06)  -1.98 to -1.66%
07)  -1.65 to -1.33%
08)  -1.32 to -1.00%
09)  -0.99 to -0.67%
10)  -0.66 to -0.34%
11)  -0.33 to -0.01% I will always be picking this one if I win it goes to Talkimg developer
12)   0.00 to +0.32% sirazimuth
13) +0.33 to +0.65% joker_josue
14) +0.66 to +0.98% Stompix
15) +0.99 to +1.31%  alh
16) +1.32 to +1.64%
17) +1.65 to +1.97% Warfare
18) +1.98 to +2.30% Iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2
19) +2.31 to +2.63% NeuroticFish
20) +2.64 to +2.96%
21) +2.97 to +3.29% Mikeywith
22) +3.30 to +3.62%
23) +3.63 to +3.95%
24) +3.96 to +4.28%
25) +4.29 to +4.61%
26) +4.62 to +4.94%
27) +4.95 to +5.27%
28) +5.28 to +5.60%
29) +5.61 to +5.93%
30) +5.94 to +6.26%
31) +6.27 to +6.59% GazetaBitcoin
32) +6.60 to +6.92% vapourminer has pledged to give to talkimg


mikeywith is in the lead with 100+ blocks left

[mikeywith]

well depends on when and how you define the bull run.

I think the general understanding of a bull run is an extended period of an uptrend, what happens from 16k to today falls out of the definition, the equivalent of that from 16k price standpoint would be Nov 2020, when we took off from 16 all the way to 60k without a single red candle on the month chart, the same thing applies to the 2017 bull run, we have been in the same zone of 16-35 since June 2022, this is certainly not a bull market by definition, it's a sideways market with a slight upside.

Now imagine a scenario where we indeed go into a bull run and break the previous ATH, we approach 100k and then one decides to expand, they would face the same faith that those who bought the S19 for $15,000 when BTC was at about 50k, right before the crash, the same folks who paid 4k for an S9 in the autumn of 2017 a month or two before the crash, in just a few months both the S9 and the S19 lost 2/3 of their price tag.

Of course, expanding in the form of adding more space, buying a transformer or any investment in the infrastructure is always best around bull markets, since you would spend less BTC to expand, but buying mining gears at 3-4x the price they were going for a few months back has always turned out to be a terrible idea.

If I could magically add the 500kwatt transformer and the Tesla chargers by mid November I would and I would order

s19xp's
s21s
t21s
m60's
L7's

By mid November we will likely still have reasonably stable gear prices, IMO, that would still be a good point of entry, actually, right now is a good time if the power rate is right, but when the S19xp starts selling for 10-15k I would steer clear as that would most likely be the sign of us approaching the end of the road.

[joker_josue]

If I could magically add the 500kwatt transformer and the Tesla chargers by mid November I would and I would order

s19xp's
s21s
t21s
m60's
L7's

We would add over 60 units

But is it worth buying T21, which has a higher consumption rate than S21?

What you needed was to start having more energy efficient equipment. However, the mining market seems to be a little stagnant in this field.

[philipma1957]

well depends on when and how you define the bull run.

I think the general understanding of a bull run is an extended period of an uptrend, what happens from 16k to today falls out of the definition, the equivalent of that from 16k price standpoint would be Nov 2020, when we took off from 16 all the way to 60k without a single red candle on the month chart, the same thing applies to the 2017 bull run, we have been in the same zone of 16-35 since June 2022, this is certainly not a bull market by definition, it's a sideways market with a slight upside.

Now imagine a scenario where we indeed go into a bull run and break the previous ATH, we approach 100k and then one decides to expand, they would face the same faith that those who bought the S19 for $15,000 when BTC was at about 50k, right before the crash, the same folks who paid 4k for an S9 in the autumn of 2017 a month or two before the crash, in just a few months both the S9 and the S19 lost 2/3 of their price tag.

Of course, expanding in the form of adding more space, buying a transformer or any investment in the infrastructure is always best around bull markets, since you would spend less BTC to expand, but buying mining gears at 3-4x the price they were going for a few months back has always turned out to be a terrible idea.

If I could magically add the 500kwatt transformer and the Tesla chargers by mid November I would and I would order

s19xp's
s21s
t21s
m60's
L7's

By mid November we will likely still have reasonably stable gear prices, IMO, that would still be a good point of entry, actually, right now is a good time if the power rate is right, but when the S19xp starts selling for 10-15k I would steer clear as that would most likely be the sign of us approaching the end of the road.

1) Our solar is grid tied and does 1300kwatts a day in the summer and 1000 kwatts a day in the winter. but everything feeds inline with the transformer which can safely do 320x24 = 7680 kwatts a day.

translation.  the 700 x  400 watt panels allow us about 16 s19xps 24/7/365

just about 50 kwatts an hour for 'free'

the 320 transformer is the master cap.  it does the whole complex 440v 220v 110v

So in the summer some of the buildings use ac. which means the trans can not do as much in the summer.

t21 vs s21

here is our philosophy we do 3  or 4 tiers of gear.

poor mediocre good best.

So at this moment

we have
 s19xps= best              on high 22 watt gear
 s19 pro = good            on high 29 watt gear
 s19       = mediocre      on high 33 watt gear
 s17 = poor                   on low 33 watt gear

so we will restructure the tiers

s21
t21
s19xp
s19 pro
s19

no more s17


less risk as going all in on any gear could mean oh my good this sucks we are fucked.

[joker_josue]

1) Our solar is grid tied and does 1300kwatts a day in the summer and 1000 kwatts a day in the winter. but everything feeds inline with the transformer which can safely do 320x24 = 7680 kwatts a day.

translation.  the 700 x  400 watt panels allow us about 16 s19xps 24/7/365

just about 50 kwatts an hour for 'free'

the 320 transformer is the master cap.  it does the whole complex 440v 220v 110v

So in the summer some of the buildings use ac. which means the trans can not do as much in the summer.

t21 vs s21

here is our philosophy we do 3  or 4 tiers of gear.

poor mediocre good best.

So at this moment

we have
 s19xps= best              on high 22 watt gear
 s19 pro = good            on high 29 watt gear
 s19       = mediocre      on high 33 watt gear
 s17 = poor                   on low 33 watt gear

so we will restructure the tiers

s21
t21
s19xp
s19 pro
s19

no more s17


less risk as going all in on any gear could mean oh my good this sucks we are fucked.

OK, I understand. The idea is to replace the S17 with T21.
Are you thinking about reconfiguring before the halving?


What's a shame is that the companies that manufacture miners have not brought great news in terms of good energy performance. I have the feeling that they invest little in this area.

[WatChe]

21) +2.97 to +3.29% Mikeywith
22) +3.30 to +3.62%
23) +3.63 to +3.95%

mikeywith is in the lead with 100+ blocks left

22) +3.30 to +3.62%

I will too donate to Talkimg, if I win 

Congratulations to Phill, it was +0.35%,  stompix was so close but pace picked up really fast in the last a few blocks.

Thanks phill for the fun, looking forward to a new round.

Congrats philipma1957 for the last contest victory.

Sorry for being late.

[NeuroticFish]

I am not a kid 66 will turn into 67 this Jan if the universe lets me .

I knew you are in the 60s, didn't know you're over 66. I wish the universe lets you go way farther than that (100 is a good target), and in good health.

its all about finding sites.

[...]

So I want a site that is under 2 hours from my home.

I am in Howell the mine is in Clifton 75 miles away from me.

So A) maybe we add a 500kwatt transformer if we get a telsa superchager grant for 3 chargers.

we would run two of three and have 200 kwatts for mining. so we could grow from

240kwatts of 320 kwatts add 200 out of 500 kwatts.

grand total 440 kwatts.

I give that case about one in five chance for 2024.

Or B) we find a suitable site closer with 2 acres for a ground mount solar array. maybe one in ten shot.

Or C) stand pat.

I like your calculations and I like to know that you've made them too
Yes, knowing very good what you want, not rushing it and see what happens are very good ingredients in there.
I main curiosity was whether you are going to settle with that you have (I don't know if I've said it right) or you are still "hungry" for more (more risk, more reward, but also more work and hassle). And I like what I see.

Expanding during the bull run is the worst time one can choose, history has shown us that through every previous bull run.

Well, my actual point was about expanding, not necessarily about the moment of it. I've mentioned the bull run because it's the one that brings more fiat, especially on the actually stashed bitcoins.
However, I've made a mental note on what you said. I didn't know that it's the worst time, although it can be, I see meaningful reasons for that.

[philipma1957]

newhedge.io

Latest Block:   814381  (16 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   102.5282%  (1934 / 1886.31 expected, 47.69 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   57321508229258.04                           
Current Difficulty:   61030681983175.59                           
Next Difficulty:   between 62568685476958 and 62571298540786
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.5200% and +2.5243%
Previous Retarget:   October 16, 2023 at 7:33 AM  (+6.4708%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 11:16 PM  (in 0d 13h 19m 46s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 11:17 PM  (in 0d 13h 20m 36s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 15h 42m 52s and 13d 15h 43m 42s

these are the one that in on time

01)  -3.43 to -3.11%
02)  -3.10 to -2.88%
03)  -2.87 to -2.55%
04)  -2.54 to -2.22%
05)  -2.21 to -1.99%
06)  -1.98 to -1.66%
07)  -1.65 to -1.33%
08)  -1.32 to -1.00%
09)  -0.99 to -0.67%
10)  -0.66 to -0.34%
11)  -0.33 to -0.01% I will always be picking this one if I win it goes to Talkimg developer
12)   0.00 to +0.32% sirazimuth
13) +0.33 to +0.65% joker_josue
14) +0.66 to +0.98% Stompix
15) +0.99 to +1.31%  alh
16) +1.32 to +1.64%
17) +1.65 to +1.97% Warfare
18) +1.98 to +2.30% Iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2
19) +2.31 to +2.63% NeuroticFish
20) +2.64 to +2.96%
21) +2.97 to +3.29% Mikeywith
22) +3.30 to +3.62%
23) +3.63 to +3.95%
24) +3.96 to +4.28%
25) +4.29 to +4.61%
26) +4.62 to +4.94%
27) +4.95 to +5.27%
28) +5.28 to +5.60%
29) +5.61 to +5.93%
30) +5.94 to +6.26%
31) +6.27 to +6.59% GazetaBitcoin
32) +6.60 to +6.92% vapourminer has pledged to give to talkimg

Neuroticfish is in the lead.


biffa and watche were a bit late.

Next game I will extend time to pick from block 500 to block 1200

I will send pm's as a reminder to all on the list above.

we have 82 blocks to go.

At neuroticfish mining flattens risk for investing it also flattens profit.

If you got in at 16k fall of 2022 you are all smiles.

As a miner I have the ½ ing coming up.

 I am good at 20K I turn a profit mining. But when the ½ ing hits I will need 38-42k to turn a profit.

So I have to weight this number and be careful.

[mikeywith]

Well, my actual point was about expanding, not necessarily about the moment of it. I've mentioned the bull run because it's the one that brings more fiat, especially on the actually stashed bitcoins.

It indeed brings more cash/fiat, which is why it's more suitable for infrastructure expansion but not hashrate expansion, the main point here which is forgot to mention in my previous comment is that gear prices and bitcoin prices do not have a linear correlation, in other worse, mining gear prices go more in price percentage wise than what they make in profit.

When the S19's price fell from 15k to 5k in just a few months, the S19 wasn't making 66% less, more so like 40-50% less, but because the FOMO has ended, the demand was pretty low, and thus prices had to adjust, similar to what's going to happen when BTC hits 90k (3x from here) the S19 that now sells for 700$ isn't going to be selling for 2100$, but rather $2500-3000, because the buyers will be under the impression that the price will go 120k or 150k, the demand will be high and the gear prices will outpace the actual profitability.

The exact opposite is correct, if we drop from 30k to 15k (50% drop), and stay there for a few weeks, the same S19 won't be selling for $350, but more like 250-300$ because the market will be more likely to go to 10k than to climb back to 30k, so the sellers would rush to sell their gears, while buyers are freaking out.

However, in the "downtrend" scenario you still won't get the max discount, because gear prices are affected by both profitability (a combination of difficulty and BTC price) and time, many sellers will still hold on to their gears thinking the profitability will rebound, so a 50% drop won't scare them, but you know what will? 6-12 months of sideway market, it's when everybody capitulates and you get the best prices ever.



 
 

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   814418  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   102.2843%  (1971 / 1926.98 expected, 44.02 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   57321508229258.04                            
Current Difficulty:   61030681983175.59                            
Next Difficulty:   between 62421805010877 and 62422514292954
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.2794% and +2.2805%
Previous Retarget:   October 16, 2023 at 7:33 AM  (+6.4708%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 12:03 AM  (in 0d 7h 19m 57s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 12:03 AM  (in 0d 7h 20m 10s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 16h 29m 45s and 13d 16h 29m 59s


we have 45 blocks to go and Iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2 has grabbed the lead.


wow a lot of  shifting in leaders.

Looks like a photo finish between numbers

18 and 19

block 2004 has us at +2.24%

[mikeywith]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   814418  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   102.2843%  (1971 / 1926.98 expected, 44.02 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   57321508229258.04                            
Current Difficulty:   61030681983175.59                            
Next Difficulty:   between 62421805010877 and 62422514292954
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.2794% and +2.2805%
Previous Retarget:   October 16, 2023 at 7:33 AM  (+6.4708%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 12:03 AM  (in 0d 7h 19m 57s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 12:03 AM  (in 0d 7h 20m 10s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 16h 29m 45s and 13d 16h 29m 59s


we have 45 blocks to go and Iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2 has grabbed the lead.


wow a lot of  shifting in leaders.

Looks like a photo finish between numbers

18 and 19

block 2004 has us at +2.24%

We did climb up a little towards the last a few blocks, so the winner is

Code:

19) +2.31 to +2.63% NeuroticFish

It was a very tight race between Iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2 and NeuroticFish during the last 50-70 blocks.


The current difficulty status

Latest Block:   814496  (6 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   134.2187%  (33 / 24.59 expected, 8.41 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   61030681983175.59                           
Current Difficulty:   62463471666732.73                           
Next Difficulty:   between 63003624893098 and 84873279504763
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.8648% and +35.8767%
Previous Retarget:   Today at 5:50 AM  (+2.3477%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   November 9, 2023 at 4:10 PM  (in 10d 6h 14m 23s)
Next Retarget (latest):   November 13, 2023 at 3:03 AM  (in 13d 17h 7m 14s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 10d 10h 20m 15s and 13d 21h 13m 6s

We are on for a great jump or so it seems, 134% is indeed an effect of luck, we should start going down as we move on.

Thanks for yet another great contest Phil.

[alh]

I'll add my thanks as well Phil.

[paid2]

It was indeed very tight haha!

Congrats to NeuroticFish 

And thank you Philipma for organizing all this, it's fun!

[philipma1957]

Yeah it was fun.

So this one will start picks at block 500 and end picks at 1200.

at NeuroticFish I will send you 0.001 btc please give me your btc addy you want the coin sent .



01)
02)
03)
04)
05)
06)
07)
08)
09)
10)
11)
12)
13)
14)
15)
16)
17)
18)
19)
20)
21)
22)
23)
24)
25)
26)
27)
28)
29)
30)

[joker_josue]

We did climb up a little towards the last a few blocks, so the winner is

Code:

19) +2.31 to +2.63% NeuroticFish

It was a very tight race between Iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2 and NeuroticFish during the last 50-70 blocks.

Congratulations on your successful choice NeuroticFish.
Well, there really were big movements, I didn't expect such a significant increase.


By chance, I never explored the difficulty moves in depth, although now I'm starting to get curious. What typically causes large variations? Is it just miners entering or leaving the network, or something else?