mikeywith
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October 27, 2023, 11:35:10 PM |
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I'm getting good at this kind of manipulation! But honestly, I'm surprised, probably because I'm more impulsive I would have expected this jump in price to trigger more of that overclocking and even bringing a bunch of old hardware online again, munching on every bit of extra power a facility has. 1.4% is....disappointing I would say! Of course, you had to talk about it and now it's no longer the case, if only you waited two more days, you would could have won and the rest of all would have been happy with a tiny difficulty increase . We jumped to 102.3% now, so as it stands right now, we do have a winner if nothing changes 19) +2.31 to +2.63% NeuroticFish Thought I honestly doubt we end up in this range, I think now slightly below 2% is more likely, so 'Iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2' has a good chance.
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joker_josue
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October 28, 2023, 05:40:35 AM |
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both. but we have no more room for solar. and the 320kwatt onsite transformer is pretty maxed out.
Interesting. In the case of solar energy, what is the production capacity? Are there times of the day when they can operate on 100% solar energy, or has it never happened? Sorry for the off topic, if there is another topic to talk about this, say so.
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. .HUGE. | | | | | | █▀▀▀▀ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █▄▄▄▄ | ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ . CASINO & SPORTSBOOK ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ | ▀▀▀▀█ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ ▄▄▄▄█ | | |
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NeuroticFish
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October 28, 2023, 07:59:23 AM |
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19) +2.31 to +2.63% NeuroticFish
Thought I honestly doubt we end up in this range, I think now slightly below 2% is more likely
Imho two intervals before this one and two intervals after this make a range with all greatly possible outcomes. I've noticed (but maybe it's just me) that just before the end of period sometimes the diff drops a little, but now the trend is upwards and it's weekend (and maybe they don't keep such a close eye on their business). we have no more room for solar. and the 320kwatt onsite transformer is pretty maxed out.
This is an impressive info (it may be old and then I've missed it). Plans to expand (ie new site) in/after the bull run?
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. .HUGE. | | | | | | █▀▀▀▀ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █▄▄▄▄ | ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ . CASINO & SPORTSBOOK ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ | ▀▀▀▀█ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ ▄▄▄▄█ | | |
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philipma1957 (OP)
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'The right to privacy matters'
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October 28, 2023, 07:40:11 PM |
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19) +2.31 to +2.63% NeuroticFish
Thought I honestly doubt we end up in this range, I think now slightly below 2% is more likely
Imho two intervals before this one and two intervals after this make a range with all greatly possible outcomes. I've noticed (but maybe it's just me) that just before the end of period sometimes the diff drops a little, but now the trend is upwards and it's weekend (and maybe they don't keep such a close eye on their business). we have no more room for solar. and the 320kwatt onsite transformer is pretty maxed out.
This is an impressive info (it may be old and then I've missed it). Plans to expand (ie new site) in/after the bull run? its all about finding sites. I am not a kid 66 will turn into 67 this Jan if the universe lets me . So I want a site that is under 2 hours from my home. I am in Howell the mine is in Clifton 75 miles away from me. So A) maybe we add a 500kwatt transformer if we get a telsa superchager grant for 3 chargers. we would run two of three and have 200 kwatts for mining. so we could grow from 240kwatts of 320 kwatts add 200 out of 500 kwatts. grand total 440 kwatts. I give that case about one in five chance for 2024. Or B) we find a suitable site closer with 2 acres for a ground mount solar array. maybe one in ten shot. Or C) stand pat.
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mikeywith
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I've noticed (but maybe it's just me) that just before the end of period sometimes the diff drops a little
The key word is "sometimes", although there is a somehow 'common' theory or rather a conspiracy theory that miners slow down a little towards the end of the difficulty epoch so that in the next epoch they manage to mine more blocks with the same hashrate, this thing will need a dedicated thread to discuss it in detail, my take on this subject is that it does NOT exist and there is no pre-determined/planned/manipulation path of the difficulty adjustments, what happens towards the end of every epoch is only the result of network luck and people plugging or unplugging gears for other purposes. Plans to expand (ie new site) in/after the bull run? Expanding during the bull run is the worst time one can choose, history has shown us that through every previous bull run.
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philipma1957 (OP)
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October 28, 2023, 08:37:26 PM |
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I've noticed (but maybe it's just me) that just before the end of period sometimes the diff drops a little
The key word is "sometimes", although there is a somehow 'common' theory or rather a conspiracy theory that miners slow down a little towards the end of the difficulty epoch so that in the next epoch they manage to mine more blocks with the same hashrate, this thing will need a dedicated thread to discuss it in detail, my take on this subject is that it does NOT exist and there is no pre-determined/planned/manipulation path of the difficulty adjustments, what happens towards the end of every epoch is only the result of network luck and people plugging or unplugging gears for other purposes. Plans to expand (ie new site) in/after the bull run? Expanding during the bull run is the worst time one can choose, history has shown us that through every previous bull run. well depends on when and how you define the bull run. For miners this is a pre 1/2 ing miners relief rally For traders that got in at 16 k last fall this is the bull run. If I could magically add the 500kwatt transformer and the Tesla chargers by mid November I would and I would order s19xp's s21s t21s m60's L7's We would add over 60 units But 3 partners and the time line would never allow me to have all that done by Nov 15th. Even by Jan 1. https://newhedge.io/Latest Block: 814284 (6 minutes ago) Current Pace: 103.0576% (1837 / 1782.50 expected, 54.5 ahead)Previous Difficulty: 57321508229258.04 Current Difficulty: 61030681983175.59 Next Difficulty: between 62879093010342 and 62894229442180 Next Difficulty Change: between +3.0287% and +3.0535% Previous Retarget: October 16, 2023 at 7:33 AM (+6.4708%) Next Retarget (earliest): Tomorrow at 9:35 PM (in 1d 4h 56m 53s) Next Retarget (latest): Tomorrow at 9:40 PM (in 1d 5h 1m 36s) Projected Epoch Length: between 13d 14h 1m 52s and 13d 14h 6m 35s it has moved past 3% 01) -3.43 to -3.11% 02) -3.10 to -2.88% 03) -2.87 to -2.55% 04) -2.54 to -2.22% 05) -2.21 to -1.99% 06) -1.98 to -1.66% 07) -1.65 to -1.33% 08) -1.32 to -1.00% 09) -0.99 to -0.67% 10) -0.66 to -0.34% 11) -0.33 to -0.01% I will always be picking this one if I win it goes to Talkimg developer 12) 0.00 to +0.32% sirazimuth 13) +0.33 to +0.65% joker_josue 14) +0.66 to +0.98% Stompix 15) +0.99 to +1.31% alh 16) +1.32 to +1.64% 17) +1.65 to +1.97% Warfare 18) +1.98 to +2.30% Iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2 19) +2.31 to +2.63% NeuroticFish 20) +2.64 to +2.96% 21) +2.97 to +3.29% Mikeywith 22) +3.30 to +3.62% 23) +3.63 to +3.95% 24) +3.96 to +4.28% 25) +4.29 to +4.61% 26) +4.62 to +4.94% 27) +4.95 to +5.27% 28) +5.28 to +5.60% 29) +5.61 to +5.93% 30) +5.94 to +6.26% 31) +6.27 to +6.59% GazetaBitcoin 32) +6.60 to +6.92% vapourminer has pledged to give to talkimg mikeywith is in the lead with 100+ blocks left
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mikeywith
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October 28, 2023, 10:08:43 PM |
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well depends on when and how you define the bull run.
I think the general understanding of a bull run is an extended period of an uptrend, what happens from 16k to today falls out of the definition, the equivalent of that from 16k price standpoint would be Nov 2020, when we took off from 16 all the way to 60k without a single red candle on the month chart, the same thing applies to the 2017 bull run, we have been in the same zone of 16-35 since June 2022, this is certainly not a bull market by definition, it's a sideways market with a slight upside. Now imagine a scenario where we indeed go into a bull run and break the previous ATH, we approach 100k and then one decides to expand, they would face the same faith that those who bought the S19 for $15,000 when BTC was at about 50k, right before the crash, the same folks who paid 4k for an S9 in the autumn of 2017 a month or two before the crash, in just a few months both the S9 and the S19 lost 2/3 of their price tag. Of course, expanding in the form of adding more space, buying a transformer or any investment in the infrastructure is always best around bull markets, since you would spend less BTC to expand, but buying mining gears at 3-4x the price they were going for a few months back has always turned out to be a terrible idea. If I could magically add the 500kwatt transformer and the Tesla chargers by mid November I would and I would order
s19xp's s21s t21s m60's L7's By mid November we will likely still have reasonably stable gear prices, IMO, that would still be a good point of entry, actually, right now is a good time if the power rate is right, but when the S19xp starts selling for 10-15k I would steer clear as that would most likely be the sign of us approaching the end of the road.
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joker_josue
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If I could magically add the 500kwatt transformer and the Tesla chargers by mid November I would and I would order
s19xp's s21s t21s m60's L7's
We would add over 60 units
But is it worth buying T21, which has a higher consumption rate than S21? What you needed was to start having more energy efficient equipment. However, the mining market seems to be a little stagnant in this field.
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. .HUGE. | | | | | | █▀▀▀▀ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █▄▄▄▄ | ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ . CASINO & SPORTSBOOK ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ | ▀▀▀▀█ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ ▄▄▄▄█ | | |
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philipma1957 (OP)
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October 29, 2023, 12:21:45 AM |
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well depends on when and how you define the bull run.
I think the general understanding of a bull run is an extended period of an uptrend, what happens from 16k to today falls out of the definition, the equivalent of that from 16k price standpoint would be Nov 2020, when we took off from 16 all the way to 60k without a single red candle on the month chart, the same thing applies to the 2017 bull run, we have been in the same zone of 16-35 since June 2022, this is certainly not a bull market by definition, it's a sideways market with a slight upside. Now imagine a scenario where we indeed go into a bull run and break the previous ATH, we approach 100k and then one decides to expand, they would face the same faith that those who bought the S19 for $15,000 when BTC was at about 50k, right before the crash, the same folks who paid 4k for an S9 in the autumn of 2017 a month or two before the crash, in just a few months both the S9 and the S19 lost 2/3 of their price tag. Of course, expanding in the form of adding more space, buying a transformer or any investment in the infrastructure is always best around bull markets, since you would spend less BTC to expand, but buying mining gears at 3-4x the price they were going for a few months back has always turned out to be a terrible idea. If I could magically add the 500kwatt transformer and the Tesla chargers by mid November I would and I would order
s19xp's s21s t21s m60's L7's By mid November we will likely still have reasonably stable gear prices, IMO, that would still be a good point of entry, actually, right now is a good time if the power rate is right, but when the S19xp starts selling for 10-15k I would steer clear as that would most likely be the sign of us approaching the end of the road. 1) Our solar is grid tied and does 1300kwatts a day in the summer and 1000 kwatts a day in the winter. but everything feeds inline with the transformer which can safely do 320x24 = 7680 kwatts a day. translation. the 700 x 400 watt panels allow us about 16 s19xps 24/7/365 just about 50 kwatts an hour for 'free' the 320 transformer is the master cap. it does the whole complex 440v 220v 110v So in the summer some of the buildings use ac. which means the trans can not do as much in the summer. t21 vs s21 here is our philosophy we do 3 or 4 tiers of gear. poor mediocre good best. So at this moment we have s19xps= best on high 22 watt gear s19 pro = good on high 29 watt gear s19 = mediocre on high 33 watt gear s17 = poor on low 33 watt gear so we will restructure the tiers s21 t21 s19xp s19 pro s19 no more s17 less risk as going all in on any gear could mean oh my good this sucks we are fucked.
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joker_josue
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October 29, 2023, 06:35:16 AM |
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1) Our solar is grid tied and does 1300kwatts a day in the summer and 1000 kwatts a day in the winter. but everything feeds inline with the transformer which can safely do 320x24 = 7680 kwatts a day.
translation. the 700 x 400 watt panels allow us about 16 s19xps 24/7/365
just about 50 kwatts an hour for 'free'
the 320 transformer is the master cap. it does the whole complex 440v 220v 110v
So in the summer some of the buildings use ac. which means the trans can not do as much in the summer.
t21 vs s21
here is our philosophy we do 3 or 4 tiers of gear.
poor mediocre good best.
So at this moment
we have s19xps= best on high 22 watt gear s19 pro = good on high 29 watt gear s19 = mediocre on high 33 watt gear s17 = poor on low 33 watt gear
so we will restructure the tiers
s21 t21 s19xp s19 pro s19
no more s17
less risk as going all in on any gear could mean oh my good this sucks we are fucked.
OK, I understand. The idea is to replace the S17 with T21. Are you thinking about reconfiguring before the halving? What's a shame is that the companies that manufacture miners have not brought great news in terms of good energy performance. I have the feeling that they invest little in this area.
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. .HUGE. | | | | | | █▀▀▀▀ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █▄▄▄▄ | ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ . CASINO & SPORTSBOOK ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ | ▀▀▀▀█ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ ▄▄▄▄█ | | |
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WatChe
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October 29, 2023, 07:31:59 AM |
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21) +2.97 to +3.29% Mikeywith 22) +3.30 to +3.62% 23) +3.63 to +3.95%
mikeywith is in the lead with 100+ blocks left
22) +3.30 to +3.62%I will too donate to Talkimg, if I win Congratulations to Phill, it was +0.35%, stompix was so close but pace picked up really fast in the last a few blocks.
Thanks phill for the fun, looking forward to a new round.
Congrats philipma1957 for the last contest victory. Sorry for being late.
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NeuroticFish
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October 29, 2023, 09:24:07 AM |
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I am not a kid 66 will turn into 67 this Jan if the universe lets me . I knew you are in the 60s, didn't know you're over 66. I wish the universe lets you go way farther than that (100 is a good target), and in good health. its all about finding sites.
[...]
So I want a site that is under 2 hours from my home.
I am in Howell the mine is in Clifton 75 miles away from me.
So A) maybe we add a 500kwatt transformer if we get a telsa superchager grant for 3 chargers.
we would run two of three and have 200 kwatts for mining. so we could grow from
240kwatts of 320 kwatts add 200 out of 500 kwatts.
grand total 440 kwatts.
I give that case about one in five chance for 2024.
Or B) we find a suitable site closer with 2 acres for a ground mount solar array. maybe one in ten shot.
Or C) stand pat.
I like your calculations and I like to know that you've made them too Yes, knowing very good what you want, not rushing it and see what happens are very good ingredients in there. I main curiosity was whether you are going to settle with that you have (I don't know if I've said it right) or you are still "hungry" for more (more risk, more reward, but also more work and hassle). And I like what I see. Expanding during the bull run is the worst time one can choose, history has shown us that through every previous bull run.
Well, my actual point was about expanding, not necessarily about the moment of it. I've mentioned the bull run because it's the one that brings more fiat, especially on the actually stashed bitcoins. However, I've made a mental note on what you said. I didn't know that it's the worst time, although it can be, I see meaningful reasons for that.
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. .HUGE. | | | | | | █▀▀▀▀ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █▄▄▄▄ | ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ . CASINO & SPORTSBOOK ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ | ▀▀▀▀█ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ ▄▄▄▄█ | | |
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philipma1957 (OP)
Legendary
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Activity: 4116
Merit: 7849
'The right to privacy matters'
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October 29, 2023, 02:03:44 PM |
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newhedge.io
Latest Block: 814381 (16 minutes ago)
Current Pace: 102.5282% (1934 / 1886.31 expected, 47.69 ahead)
Previous Difficulty: 57321508229258.04 Current Difficulty: 61030681983175.59 Next Difficulty: between 62568685476958 and 62571298540786 Next Difficulty Change: between +2.5200% and +2.5243% Previous Retarget: October 16, 2023 at 7:33 AM (+6.4708%) Next Retarget (earliest): Today at 11:16 PM (in 0d 13h 19m 46s) Next Retarget (latest): Today at 11:17 PM (in 0d 13h 20m 36s) Projected Epoch Length: between 13d 15h 42m 52s and 13d 15h 43m 42s
these are the one that in on time 01) -3.43 to -3.11% 02) -3.10 to -2.88% 03) -2.87 to -2.55% 04) -2.54 to -2.22% 05) -2.21 to -1.99% 06) -1.98 to -1.66% 07) -1.65 to -1.33% 08) -1.32 to -1.00% 09) -0.99 to -0.67% 10) -0.66 to -0.34% 11) -0.33 to -0.01% I will always be picking this one if I win it goes to Talkimg developer 12) 0.00 to +0.32% sirazimuth 13) +0.33 to +0.65% joker_josue 14) +0.66 to +0.98% Stompix 15) +0.99 to +1.31% alh 16) +1.32 to +1.64% 17) +1.65 to +1.97% Warfare 18) +1.98 to +2.30% Iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2 19) +2.31 to +2.63% NeuroticFish 20) +2.64 to +2.96% 21) +2.97 to +3.29% Mikeywith 22) +3.30 to +3.62% 23) +3.63 to +3.95% 24) +3.96 to +4.28% 25) +4.29 to +4.61% 26) +4.62 to +4.94% 27) +4.95 to +5.27% 28) +5.28 to +5.60% 29) +5.61 to +5.93% 30) +5.94 to +6.26% 31) +6.27 to +6.59% GazetaBitcoin 32) +6.60 to +6.92% vapourminer has pledged to give to talkimg Neuroticfish is in the lead. biffa and watche were a bit late. Next game I will extend time to pick from block 500 to block 1200 I will send pm's as a reminder to all on the list above. we have 82 blocks to go. At neuroticfish mining flattens risk for investing it also flattens profit. If you got in at 16k fall of 2022 you are all smiles. As a miner I have the ½ ing coming up. I am good at 20K I turn a profit mining. But when the ½ ing hits I will need 38-42k to turn a profit. So I have to weight this number and be careful.
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mikeywith
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Activity: 2226
Merit: 6367
be constructive or S.T.F.U
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October 29, 2023, 03:04:41 PM |
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Well, my actual point was about expanding, not necessarily about the moment of it. I've mentioned the bull run because it's the one that brings more fiat, especially on the actually stashed bitcoins.
It indeed brings more cash/fiat, which is why it's more suitable for infrastructure expansion but not hashrate expansion, the main point here which is forgot to mention in my previous comment is that gear prices and bitcoin prices do not have a linear correlation, in other worse, mining gear prices go more in price percentage wise than what they make in profit. When the S19's price fell from 15k to 5k in just a few months, the S19 wasn't making 66% less, more so like 40-50% less, but because the FOMO has ended, the demand was pretty low, and thus prices had to adjust, similar to what's going to happen when BTC hits 90k (3x from here) the S19 that now sells for 700$ isn't going to be selling for 2100$, but rather $2500-3000, because the buyers will be under the impression that the price will go 120k or 150k, the demand will be high and the gear prices will outpace the actual profitability. The exact opposite is correct, if we drop from 30k to 15k (50% drop), and stay there for a few weeks, the same S19 won't be selling for $350, but more like 250-300$ because the market will be more likely to go to 10k than to climb back to 30k, so the sellers would rush to sell their gears, while buyers are freaking out. However, in the "downtrend" scenario you still won't get the max discount, because gear prices are affected by both profitability (a combination of difficulty and BTC price) and time, many sellers will still hold on to their gears thinking the profitability will rebound, so a 50% drop won't scare them, but you know what will? 6-12 months of sideway market, it's when everybody capitulates and you get the best prices ever.
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philipma1957 (OP)
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Activity: 4116
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'The right to privacy matters'
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October 29, 2023, 08:43:46 PM Last edit: October 30, 2023, 02:14:38 AM by philipma1957 |
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https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimatorLatest Block: 814418 (2 minutes ago) Current Pace: 102.2843% (1971 / 1926.98 expected, 44.02 ahead) Previous Difficulty: 57321508229258.04 Current Difficulty: 61030681983175.59 Next Difficulty: between 62421805010877 and 62422514292954 Next Difficulty Change: between +2.2794% and +2.2805% Previous Retarget: October 16, 2023 at 7:33 AM (+6.4708%) Next Retarget (earliest): Tomorrow at 12:03 AM (in 0d 7h 19m 57s) Next Retarget (latest): Tomorrow at 12:03 AM (in 0d 7h 20m 10s) Projected Epoch Length: between 13d 16h 29m 45s and 13d 16h 29m 59s we have 45 blocks to go and Iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2 has grabbed the lead. wow a lot of shifting in leaders. Looks like a photo finish between numbers 18 and 19 block 2004 has us at +2.24%
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mikeywith
Legendary
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Activity: 2226
Merit: 6367
be constructive or S.T.F.U
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October 30, 2023, 07:57:33 AM |
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https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimatorLatest Block: 814418 (2 minutes ago) Current Pace: 102.2843% (1971 / 1926.98 expected, 44.02 ahead) Previous Difficulty: 57321508229258.04 Current Difficulty: 61030681983175.59 Next Difficulty: between 62421805010877 and 62422514292954 Next Difficulty Change: between +2.2794% and +2.2805% Previous Retarget: October 16, 2023 at 7:33 AM (+6.4708%) Next Retarget (earliest): Tomorrow at 12:03 AM (in 0d 7h 19m 57s) Next Retarget (latest): Tomorrow at 12:03 AM (in 0d 7h 20m 10s) Projected Epoch Length: between 13d 16h 29m 45s and 13d 16h 29m 59s we have 45 blocks to go and Iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2 has grabbed the lead. wow a lot of shifting in leaders. Looks like a photo finish between numbers 18 and 19 block 2004 has us at +2.24% We did climb up a little towards the last a few blocks, so the winner is 19) +2.31 to +2.63% NeuroticFish It was a very tight race between Iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2 and NeuroticFish during the last 50-70 blocks.
The current difficulty status Latest Block: 814496 (6 minutes ago) Current Pace: 134.2187% (33 / 24.59 expected, 8.41 ahead) Previous Difficulty: 61030681983175.59 Current Difficulty: 62463471666732.73 Next Difficulty: between 63003624893098 and 84873279504763 Next Difficulty Change: between +0.8648% and +35.8767% Previous Retarget: Today at 5:50 AM (+2.3477%) Next Retarget (earliest): November 9, 2023 at 4:10 PM (in 10d 6h 14m 23s) Next Retarget (latest): November 13, 2023 at 3:03 AM (in 13d 17h 7m 14s) Projected Epoch Length: between 10d 10h 20m 15s and 13d 21h 13m 6s We are on for a great jump or so it seems, 134% is indeed an effect of luck, we should start going down as we move on. Thanks for yet another great contest Phil.
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alh
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Activity: 1843
Merit: 1050
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October 30, 2023, 10:08:12 AM |
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I'll add my thanks as well Phil.
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paid2
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October 30, 2023, 10:24:49 AM |
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It was indeed very tight haha! Congrats to NeuroticFish And thank you Philipma for organizing all this, it's fun!
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philipma1957 (OP)
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Activity: 4116
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'The right to privacy matters'
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Yeah it was fun.
So this one will start picks at block 500 and end picks at 1200.
at NeuroticFish I will send you 0.001 btc please give me your btc addy you want the coin sent .
01) 02) 03) 04) 05) 06) 07) 08) 09) 10) 11) 12) 13) 14) 15) 16) 17) 18) 19) 20) 21) 22) 23) 24) 25) 26) 27) 28) 29) 30)
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joker_josue
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Activity: 1652
Merit: 4560
**In BTC since 2013**
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October 30, 2023, 01:56:30 PM |
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We did climb up a little towards the last a few blocks, so the winner is 19) +2.31 to +2.63% NeuroticFish It was a very tight race between Iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2 and NeuroticFish during the last 50-70 blocks. Congratulations on your successful choice NeuroticFish. Well, there really were big movements, I didn't expect such a significant increase. By chance, I never explored the difficulty moves in depth, although now I'm starting to get curious. What typically causes large variations? Is it just miners entering or leaving the network, or something else?
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. .HUGE. | | | | | | █▀▀▀▀ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █▄▄▄▄ | ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ . CASINO & SPORTSBOOK ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ | ▀▀▀▀█ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ ▄▄▄▄█ | | |
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