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JayJuan sir, your words touches .........all being summed up is like talking about a
reset button in life and also a
kind of fence that the act of properly reserving funds provides.
.........
THE RESET BUTTON:.........
THE UNSEEN FENCE:.........
Your quasi-incoherent summary that was likely written by an AI BOT does not reasonably describe or outline points that I made or the ways that I tend to want to frame bitcoin investing and cashflow management matters. You (and your AI bot) came up with nonsensical and confusing ways to try to say what I was saying, while causing the ideas to be more confusing than they need to be.
In essence, I tend to want to suggest that the tailoring of investment into bitcoin levels and cashflow management practices (including how much back up funds to keep in order to protect the bitcoin holdings) that are employed involve quite a bit of individual judgement, and if mistakes are made, including tapping into the bitcoin holdings a premature times, then there are consequences for engaging in such tapping ins... and for poor people it can be quite tempting to tap into bitcoin holdings, especially when bitcoin holdings are in profits and there is not enough back up funds in place to cover various expenses.. including the temptations that may come from tapping into bitcoin holdings to try to generate funds in other areas and other temptations that might come about when the bitcoin holdings are "in profits."
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DCA and smart DCA are both ways of investing money but they are not the same, DCA is very simple, in this method a person invests the same amount of money every month or at a fixed time,it does not matter if the market price goes up or down, people who are new and want a stress free way prefer DCA, fear and greed work less here so the chance of making mistakes is also lower...
smart DCA is a little different,here money is invested regularly but decisions are also made by looking at the price, when the price is low more is bought,when the price is high less is bought or the person waits,this can help buy at a better price but it is not always easy to make the right decision,if the decision is wrong there can be loss instead of profit,
simply put people who want less thinking and like to follow rules should choose DCA, people who understand the market and can give time and think before investing may find smart DCA better...
Smart DCA is not smart and it is not superior to regular DCA, including that it likely puts guys in a wrong mindset when it comes to how they are thinking about their bitcoin accumulation and/or their cashflow management systems/practices.
Of course, guys can do what they like and they can act like they are smart or smarter than everyone else when they may well be engaging in conduct that is less smart by fucking around trying to employ waiting strategies based on dips that may or may not happen.
Sure, guys feel good to have funds to buy the dip, and if they are buying every week they are likely to catch dips, yet it seems that the smarter thing to do is likely to limit the amount of funds dedicated for buying dips (such as perhaps no more than 20% of the DCA allowed to be used and or to build up to buy dips that may or may not end up happening)... and the smarter thing would likely be to stay in a focused mindset and buy regularly (such as weekly), consistently, persistently, ongoingly and perhaps even aggressively to the extent that they are staying within discretionary funds and not overdoing it.
Guys also frequently make the error that they need to change the level of their aggressiveness if they are buying the dip, and limits should be placed on that too.. since if a person is buying dips and saving something like 20% of DCA money for buying dips, then they would likely have some ideas in advance regarding the setting of dip buys for any of the funds that are building up.. so if a person is investing $100 per week into BTC through their DCA and saving $20 per week for buying dips, then maybe if no eligible dips had come for 10 weeks then they would have $200 built up for buying dips.. and they should already know at which price points they are going to apply some or all of the $200 that they had built up.
Maybe holding back 20% for buying dips does not seem like enough, and yeah, so guys make mistakes by wanting to hold back more and more and more when they should be building up their BTC accumulation, yet if a person might have been accumulating $100 per week of bitcoin for 8 years, then they would have had invested right around $42k through their regular DCA and an additional $8,400 (20%) through their buying on dips.. and maybe there is a difference with the dip buying money and the regular money.. and they can see where there bitcoin portfolio is at after 8 years building it to figure out if there might be any of their strategies that they might want to change.
It does seem that the longer a person accumulates bitcoin, the size of their bitcoin holdings might start to inform them if they believe that they might need to change strategies, since at some point if their bitcoin holdings had grown through both the money that they put in, such as $50k over 8 years, and perhaps the stash gained in value (let's say it is 3x more valuable after 8 years), so then every $100 per week placed into bitcoin does not seem to be as much (since the whole pot is worth around $150k), and maybe after 12 years, the amount they put in had been around $75k, and maybe the stash is worth around 6x (so it is worth around $450k), and so each $100 put in each week does not seem to be adding a whole lot to the overall stash size and its value, so there could be choices to use that $100 per week in different ways, whether that is other investments, consumption, or perhaps saving for dips that might or might not happen.
Also we have the ever-present question regarding how much we get for our money and how far the dollar had been debased in the 8 or 12 years that we are measuring our progress and/or figuring out if we might need to change aspects of our bitcoin accumulation and/or our bitcoin portfolio management. Many of us anticipate that based on the way that bitcoin had been designed that it is quite likely to appreciate more and better than the dollar and other fiat in order to also account for the dabasement of such dollars (fiat).
They just need to be true to themselves towards their accumulations. Even if they they made steady weekly accumulations they might still slow up especially if they face some issues. The real challenges here if they can sustain it and balance their aggressiveness on their investment.
No doubt Bitcoin is a long term great asset and setting up their targets and make it real for stacking their Bitcoin for more years (4-10) years is I think more important compare if they chase those hypes or any short term profits to get.
You seem to be specifically talking about different ideas as compared with the ones that I was making - laspol65 mentioned that a regular small amount can be invested and to aspire to reaching a whole bitcoin as long at the person is consistently buying bitcoin.
I said that is bullshit, since even $300 per week is not likely to add up to a whole bitcoin, even if a person invests $300 per week for 10 years, unless you think that in the next 10 years bitcoin is going to have an average price of less than $156k. Anything is possible, but I doubt it.
I was largely trying to be more realistic in examples that are given and do the math in regards to how much you likely would need to invest on a regular basis to reach a whole BTC - to the extent that a whole BTC is either realistic or even a meaningful target for a lot of normies who are just starting to invest in bitcoin. Sure it is possible to reach 1 whole BTC for a newbie who is starting now, yet it seems to me that newbies who are able to reach 1 BTC now are not regular people.. and 1 BTC is coming out of reach for an overwhelming majority of the population.. so it seems a bit fantastical to be talking about the accumulation of 1 BTC for a normie as if it were a reasonably easy goal do reach.. even if a person might be expecting to be able to invest $156k into bitcoin over the next 10-ish years.
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If a guy is regularly investing into bitcoin then at various points along the way, he can measure his progress and even determine if he might need to be more aggressive or less aggressive in the quantity of bitcoin being accumulated (or perhaps measured in terms of his chosen weekly investment amount). So then at some point he might determine that he had moved to his maintenance stage (and he is not accumulating as much any more) or that he has graduated to sustainable withdrawal based on his having enough or more than enough. There is price based sustainable withdrawal and time based sustainable withdrawal that I discuss in
my sustainable withdrawal thread - yet with the employment of each of those methods, I presume that they are employed only after reaching overaccumulation status.
Yes. When someone invests in Bitcoin regularly, it becomes easier to monitor progress and adjust their investment strategy. This is a very wise move and makes it easier to manage risk and achieve financial goals. Certain stages are needed to achieve investment goals, such as accumulating regularly to increase the number of Bitcoin holdings and making withdrawals when Bitcoin has reached a predetermined level. The continuous withdrawal method can be used when you have reached your desired financial goals or want to maintain your profits.
As an investor who is determined to invest and hold for long term, there won't be need to be monitoring the progress or success because this can cause or make an investor to think of selling premature ( when they are yet to reach their overaccumulation stage). Sometimes what makes some people sell off their investment is because of profit, there are people that constantly looking at their progress always trigger the thought to sell so I see monitoring progress as a distraction most times.
Yes, you are correct. If you are always monitoring your progress, you will be tempted to sell your bitcoin as time goes on because one of the reasons why people sell their bitcoin at early stage is because they usually monitor their progress and when they see that Bitcoin has raised to good price there by making there money increase they will immediately sell there bitcoin all because of the huge profit they see, so it is better to just stop mentoring your success in Bitcoin investment just focus on accumulating and holding your Bitcoin for long term 5 years and above. The best thing to do is to have the mindset of holding for a very long time and achieving huge success in the future. This mindset will help you not to sell at an early stage.
Guys should be able to regularly monitor their progress and their building of their bitcoin holdings and various other aspects of their financial management without necessarily getting tempted into tapping into their coins at a time that is not of their own choosing.
Likely if they realize that they might be investing in bitcoin for 10 years and beyond and maybe they realize that it might be 15 years or beyond before they start to sell any of their bitcoin, then they merely need to set up systems that they are ongoingly buying bitcoin and even maintaining enough of a dollar cushion so that they have enough money that they can spend from and not be tempted to tap into their bitcoin. ..
So let's say that they earn $30k per year ($2,500 per month) and their basic expenses are right around $1,500 per month. So that leaves them with $1k per month of discretionary income.. not bad.. they tend to invest $100 per week ($433 per month) into bitcoin, so that leaves them with $567 per month for their savings and their discretionary consumption. If they already got their basic back up funds up to $4,500 - which is 3 months of their expenses).. maybe they figure that they have to keep an additional $1k or $2k on hand and in their reserve fund so that they can be able to buy things... .. so their bitcoin investment and their back up funds might grow at the same time, or perhaps their back up funds just stays at a certain level but it has some money that can be tapped into so that they are less tempted to tap into their bitcoin - even though the amount that the bitcoin appreciates and/or depreciates each year can vary between being in profits and/or being in the negative, yet they know that the amount that theyput into their bitcoin is reight around $5,200 each year.
If they have discipline, they can watch it. If they put extra systems and back up funds (reserve funds) in place then they have money that they can spend if they want - since they have already told themselves that they are not tapping into their bitcoin - even though they want to monitor it monthly, quarterly and annually (different levels of analsys during each period.. but desires to grow and to tweak their bitcoin accumulation and/or their cashflow management systems from time to time if they see data that justifies making such tweaks. They are not going to see areas for improvement if they are not paying attention and they are affraid of their bitcoin holdings...
if a guy had not been paying attention to his BTC holdings in 2020, and maybe he had accumulated 5 BTC that were worth less than $35k at various points in mid-to-late 2020, yet all of a sudden in 2021, those coins went from being worth $35k to being worth more than $300k - so the guy has to have systems in place for dealing with it, and he is more likely to engage in rash behaviors if he is not paying attention and performing regular analysis on his bitcoin holdings as compared with other wealth he has and his cashflow situation.
He is wrong to say that there is no perfect time to sell bitcoin because this simply means we can sell bitcoin at any time regardless of whether we are in profit or not. I do believe that long term investors do have investment timeline as per how long they intend to hold there bitcoin before they will sell.
As for perfect time to buy, the only time I do consider perfect time to buy is when we have discretionary income e buy bitcoin with.
For those just starting to invest in Bitcoin, I don't think there's any need to think about selling their Bitcoins. Why would they? We're still in the early stages of our investmentt. Therefore, we need to focus more on accumulation. Believe me, if we think too much about selling our Bitcoins, sooner or later,, I'm sure they'll be tempted to sell. Therefore,, we don't need to worry about selling, as we're still in the early stages of our investment. The key is to be patient and avoid rushing into small profits. This is an investment, and investments won't be successful overnight. Therefore, focus and remain focused on accumulation.
Yea, unless for investors who have reached there over accumulation stages of buying bitcoin, they can once in a while pull some part of there Bitcoin as deemed fit for reasons known to them, and they too can also buy to replace or just to add up once in a while maybe or especially during the Dip period.
Once you reach overaccumulation stage you can engage in price-based and/or time based sustainable withdrawal and buying back is optional, especially since a presumption of sustainable withdrawal is that it is sustainable and withdrawing is not knocking you out of overaccumulation status.
But for starters who just entered Bitcoin investment, or investors who have not gotten to there over accumulation stage, the best is to keep buying and then Hold.
Surely stack size and various aspect of personal circumstances will affect how anyone might manage their bitcoin holdings and if they either perceive themselves to still be in accumulation stage and/or if they feel that they have enough bitcoin, even if they might not quite be to the level of being able to start to withdraw from their BTC holdings..
If a person is not quite at overaccumulation stage then they have to be careful in regards to either stopping their accumulation or starting to withdraw from their holdings... especially if they want to be able to reach overaccumulation status that would then allow them to enter into some kind of a sustainable withdrawal level that they perceive to be within acceptability to their finances/psychology whether they would be choosing to completely live off of their bitcoin and/or to supplement other income sources (whether those other income sources require work or they are passive). Bitcoin would mostly be a passive source of income, except whatever work might need to be done in order to manage and/or account for it.
Secondly, that's why it very important that an investor keeps to mind the importants of emergency funds and other back up funds and ensure to grow them simultaneously while building your investment, because the readily availability of these funds helps you to really Hodl your BTC for long term plan. You can't Hodl if you don't back up.. it's necessary
Back up funds are surely helpful to the extent that income might not cover all expenses, and surely we have situations in which our income and/or our expenses might become erratic - yet the longer that we are building our bitcoin holdings, we might also be able to have flexibility in regards to which we are continuing to buy bitcoin every month or not and if we are avoiding selling any bitcoin.. .and those seem to be two sides of the same coin. It would seem that the longer that we are building up our bitcoin stash then our back up funds might also have its core components in cash, but we also might have other kinds of funds that might not be in cash, so we have various options when we have ups and downs in our discretionary income... to the extent that we are still buying bitcoin or not once our bitcoin stash is starting to get to a decently large level, even if we calculate that we had not reached overaccumulation status, yet.
There is no certainty in the market that bitcoin would make whatever amout you hold to $1M or one bitcoin would get to one million, so why not focus on a realistic goal like holding for some couple of year like a cycle or probably a decade.
You can't possibly think of becoming a millionaire off your bitcoin investment and still forget about it, which is why it's best to invest what you can from your discretionary income for a duration of time so you don't get emotionally attached to the price. For better emotional control, it would be best to view your bitcoin investment as a savings against inflation and not a 10x multiplier.
We have seen in the past that people who bought Bitcoin 10 years ago and still holding it are getting massive profit. Moreover there purchase price is also negligible. Same thing may or may happen in next 10 years and if we are investing for next 10 years then we must remain ready for both scenarios. One thing I am very much sure is that Bitcoin will give you good return in next 10 years and that's why I invest with intention of getting profit after 10 years. Don't just invest with intention of becoming millionaire but to get good profit in the long run.
Patience is the key to be very successful in Bitcoin investment cause with patience an investor would be more determined and disciplined to continue holding for a very long period, well everyone's level of patience differs, which is why some can only hold for a full circle, some for a decade and some can't even hold up to the minimum interval for holding.
You might be correct, Princess Leah that we are talking about a certain level of patience, yet we also might be referring to a certain level of readiness, willingness and/or ability to learn as we go.
It is quite possible that some folks might come into bitcoin and they won't even have a 4-year investment timeline, and many of us would argue that they have a trader mindset rather than an investor mindset, yet surely guys can invest in bitcoin and learn at the same time, and it seems to me that there should be a certain level of priority to want to learn about the thing that is being invested into, which would seem that the longer the learning, then the more likely that there would be plans that would involve considering bitcoin as an investment rather than as a trade... but yeah, not everyone is going to come around to that kind of thinking, and it seems a bit wasteful for someone to invest $100 per week into bitcoin for 9 years or longer, and then perhaps use that money to make a downpayment on a house and/or to become a no coiner (or an extreme low coiner).
In the last 9 years, if a guy had invested $100 per week into bitcoin, he would have had invested right around $47k, and then he would have right around 5 BTC.. so yeah, he could be tempted to use some or all of that money to buy something like a house which would surely be an inferior place to put the money even though I don't blame folks for wanting to save up bitcoin for certain specific targets that they might have.
The guy might have options besides selling most if not all of his bitcoin, yet he might not be able to help himself in regards to certain things that he wants (and perceives that he needs) and he might think that he has the right idea in regards to the role that bitcoin plays in terms of his being able to reach his goal... but then he ends up as a no coiner or an extreme low coiner.
By the way, even plugging
5 bitcoin right now into a time-based sustainable withdrawal system, there would be an ability to withdraw nearly $29k per year forever and ever and ever, and even give a 7% per year increase in the dollar value of the withdrawal, so it seems really retarded to use such bitcoin and/or to drain the bitcoin stash down to very low amounts based on a lack of appreciation of the value of bitcoin as compared with other places that the bitcoin could be placed.
So, yeah, people can have way shorter timelines and they can end up being dumb because they failed/refused to spend a sufficient amount of time understanding the asset (namely bitcoin) that they had been investing into and how such asset could be used in a sustainable kind of a way once it reaches a certain meaningful size
Well, we don't know what the future hold but history has taught us that there's much hope if someone can hold for that long. Another thing I've learnt from the history of Bitcoin investment is that those who rush to take profits early always end up regretting so it's left for investors to choose whether to be patient and reward with huge profits in the future or sell quickly and regret by then.
It seems that even guys who might end up making mistakes of cashing out too much bitcoin too soon, the more that they learn about bitcoin, they may well come to realize that if they are going to make a mistake in terms of their selling too much bitcoin too soon, then they might at least choose to reduce the amount that they choose to sell so that they mitigate some of the future damage to themselves in regards to how much bitcoin they end up selling and at what points of time they end up selling some of their bitcoin stash.
Yes, you are correct. If you are always monitoring your progress, you will be tempted to sell your bitcoin as time goes on because one of the reasons why people sell their bitcoin at early stage is because they usually monitor their progress and when they see that Bitcoin has raised to good price there by making there money increase they will immediately sell there bitcoin all because of the huge profit they see, so it is better to just stop mentoring your success in Bitcoin investment just focus on accumulating and holding your Bitcoin for long term 5 years and above. The best thing to do is to have the mindset of holding for a very long time and achieving huge success in the future. This mindset will help you not to sell at an early stage.
I disagree with you that monitoring your bitcoin investment will make you sell too soon when it's not of your will because of little profits. As long as an investor has a bitcoin target and hasn't meet it, if he's serious with his accumulation journey and wants to achieve his bitcoin target, he wouldn't sell even if his portfolio is on profit. This is why you must be disciplined, committed and stay focused on your bitcoin goal with patience.
I am coming around to the idea that monitoring of bitcoin holdings is good for everyone who is seriously trying to invest in bitcoin rather than trade in order to reinforce his conviction and to allow him to make sure that he understands where his bitcoin investment is and to make sure if their are weaknesses in his cashflow and his back ups, he is going to need to fix them as he goes, and one of the better (if not the best) way of making tweaks to their system and to improve both their finances and their psychology is by paying attention...
And, surely some folks are weak willed, which likely means that they have to have financial systems in place that allow them to build ways of building up their conviction in bitcoin so that they are not tempted to sell too much too soon (and likely if they are in their first cycle - or even two) they have to be careful in regards to any sales that they might make since they should be ongoingly buying and reinforcing buying practices no matter the price..
so if they end up tempted to sell when they should be ongoingly buying, then they probably don't even understand what they are doing.. so it is hard to know how to get them to understand what they are doing when they don't understand it... Perhaps if they cannot handle their bitcoin investment and detaching themselves emotionally from the size of it, they might have to reduce their weekly contribution amount to a point that it is not bothering them anymore.... so maybe they had been investing $100 per week, and maybe they have to reduce themselves to $30 per week until they get themselves comfortable with that level and then they are later able to increase their weekly investment amount.
I am not really sure how to deal with these matters, even though I presume that 97.5% of the world's population has common sense and/or they are able to develop skills around their common sense - which includes that they would like to make money rather than lose money with their bitcoin investment, so sometimes they are going to have needs to learn around their common sense and not rush their bitcoin investment, even though everyone who has common sense and discretionary funds needs to get started investing into bitcoin and continuing to invest into bitcoin on something like a weekly basis or whatever regular time interval makes sense to the person.. yet at the same time, if they are missing certain skills and they are lacking confidence and/or comfort in what they are doing, then they likely have to reduce the size of their weekly investing amounts until they are able to build up their comfort and/or confidence to a level that they are able to increase their weekly (or whatever interval) investment amounts.
It's good that after every year a long-term investor should reassess his bitcoin portfolio and see if his accumulation method is boosting his bitcoin portfolio or not.
In the beginning, there is likely ongoing assessments, weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly, and then as they get more used to the various systems that they are practicing, then they may not need to assess and/or reassess as frequently.
If he's not monitoring his bitcoin portfolio how will he know if he's doing the right thing or not or if he's using the right accumulation method so that he can change it or not or increase his DCA amount.
Exactly!!! Someone who is not monitoring and investing time, energy and/or value into bitcoin is likely ending up behaving in ways that are overly whimpy in regards to their bitcoin investment and they may well end up having regrets later because they did not spend enough time, energy and/or value in regards to one of the best (if not the best?) of assets that is available to everyone and anyone with discretionary funds.
Sure, if they study bitcoin and they ongoingly choose to invest whimpily into bitcoin then that is their choice, and surely some people might have had heard of bitcoin, yet they don't want to figure out ways to dedicate some time to look into it further, and it is likely that somewhere around 99% of the world's population fits into a category in which they are failing/refusing to look into bitcoin further, even though they heard about bitcoin - bitcoin adoption rates seem to reflect such ongoing and persistent lack of looking into bitcoin from the various normies of the world, which yeah, is too bad for them.
Some investors after accumulating in a year with only DCA and has reassess their portfolio, they might not be pleased with the results and choose to mix their DCA with lump sum and dip buying for a significant growth in their bitcoin portfolio the next year.
It is true that guys who start investing into bitcoin may well learn along the way, and change some of their tactics based on the learnings that they had been making along the way, and surely for beginners, there can seem like so much and/or even too much to learn, even though getting started investing, even small amounts should be helpful in terms of getting normies to look further into bitcoin based on their taking a stake in it.. .. and yeah, surely there are different kinds of people in regards to how curious they might be and how much they might choose to look into variou0s matters in their lives, whether bitcoin or any other thing that's in their life, including sometimes time management and changes in priorities when their might be some justification in making some adjustments - even though normies might get tied up in their own ways of how they spend their time with work, family, recreation, hobbies and even other investments that they might have. I am not even suggesting that it is easy for some people to purposefully block out 2-6 hours per week to spend on "looking further" into bitcoin.. and if they at least spend some time getting started and starting to buy every week, they also might figure out that it is good for them to figure out ways that they are able to block out some time for bitcoin each week, whether that is 2-6 hoours or some other amount of time that they might be able to block out..
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monitoring the market may not push an investor to sell before they plan to . There are people that always like to be updated on how the market is going, this doesn't mean that they will allow emotions to control into selling when they are not planning to. However if an investor know that monitoring the market will push then into selling off there bitcoin they should stay away from constant monitoring of the market movement.
Surely it could be that if a person cannot control his own emotions, he might need to learn how to do that, and perhaps one of the first things to do is to reduce their position size until they become more comfortable with their likely need to make sure that they are engaging themselves with bitcoin rather than engaging in tactics (of staying away from bitcoin) which might not work to their benefit.
They can limit themselves in terms of time, energy and/or value that the invest into bitcoin, yet it seems that bitcoin is a thing that should be monitored and learned about in order that the aggressiveness can be increased to as high of a level that is reasonable without overdoing it, and the level to invest into bitcoin that is reasonable is likely going to differ for each person, and it is likely that each person has to figure out his own limitations and also to strive towards improving upon them - especially if he might be wanting to advantage himself with regards to his involvement in bitcoin, which is likely a commitment that is 4-10 years or longer, and surely many of us consider bitcoin to be a longer than 10 commitment which justifies that folks figure out comfortable boundaries and likely being careful not to approach bitcoin in ways that are overly whimpy and/or overly detached.
Sure each of us has to figure out his limits including the extent to which we might have regrets if we either over-invest or underinvest into bitcoin based on our own lack of finding balances that are reasonable for ourselves.
