It's like having a favourable risk reward ratio where the upside possibilities far outweigh the down risks.
Personally, I believe that the more clear way of expressing such ideas is to proclaim that as long as you are not engaging in leveraged trading, then the most that you are able to lose is 100% of your investment, so in that regard, each person needs to realize that they could lose 100% of their investment. At the same time, there are a variety of possible other scenarios in which smaller amounts are lost or maybe the amount of gain is modest to non-existent, yet also there are some fairly highly-likely scenarios (that still may well be minority scenarios) in which there are various possible upside potentialities that still justify being in bitcoin, which is that bitcoin could perform at similar levels as other asset classes, or bitcoin could outperform other asset classes by modest amounts, or bitcoin could outperform other asset classes by multiples and/or magnitudes, which historically has already happened, but it is not guaranteed to continue to happen.
We should be able to hold all of these possible scenarios in our head and including choosing an investment allocation size into bitcoin that also attempts to sufficiently/adequately prepare ourselves for such various scenarios.. and surely by the time the future plays out, then ONLY 1 scenario ends up playing out, but we do not know in advance, and maybe that one scenario seemed as if it were obvious, but it has only become obvious after it already happened... .. so yeah there could be some folks who are greatly scared about various downside risks with bitcoin, and there is nothing wrong with that, except if they refuse and/or fail to act, which is that they should still buy some bitcoin (and get off zero), but if they are scared little rabbits about the whole thing, then those kinds of folks would more likely be better served by choosing an allocation size that is conservative and/or small (aka whimpy) even though they have means to invest more, for their own psychology (and perhaps finances too) they are better off to employ a strategy that complements their own finances/psychology rather than investing in a way that does not adequately account for their finances/psychology.
Surely, some folks might start out in bitcoin in relatively modest (and even whimpy ways), yet it also could be that with the passage of time, they may well gain more conviction and confidence, and even gain that conviction and/or confidence by either ongoingly learning about bitcoin or merely by ongoingly maintaining a certain amount of exposure to it.. whether through directly holding it or by holding it through 3rd parties (and maybe even through the years learning the differences between directly holding bitcoin and holding it through 3rd parties).
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Well said. Understanding the market volatility and investing relative to it, will keep us in a place of neutrality anticipating Bitcoin to move upward but also not getting too optimistic about Bitcoin not dumping drastically. In essence anticipating 100x in 2025 is very unrealistic as price doesn't move that way. But if we ratio it to the amount invested then, it can align.
For instance; Someone who invested $20 and already have appreciated to $2000, have done 100x of his capital.
100x or more is not very likely for anyone coming to BTC after 2015, even if they might have had tried to buy quite a bit of BTC in 2016, so yeah, with today's prices of right around $67k, anyone who has an average cost of less than $670 per BTC would have 100x in his current profit levels.
Yet I assert that even if someone came into bitcoin in 2016, it may well have had taken them a year or more to just establish their position, and sure there are some folks who might have had been able to lump sum (or front load) their investment in 2016, yet many folks are not really able (financially or psychologically) to invest like that, so it will tend to take an overwhelming number of folks a while to really establish their BTC position, even if they might be financially able to do so.
Even if there are folks who are decently in BTC profits right now, those cases might be interesting, fun and perhaps somewhat informative to hear about, yet we still have to figure out our own trade-offs of what we are going to do and how we are going to invest based on our own particular financial circumstances, including considering
the 9-ish factors.
- as well as our need to continue to keep in mind that past performance neither guarantees future results and past performance does not even guarantee some more modest price performance version, in regards to future results.. even though surely there is likely a decent amount of Lindy effect going on with bitcoin, which means that within technology (such as bitcoin) the longer that something is around the more likely that is going to persist at least at the level that it has already established.. but even the Lindy effect is not a guarantee in regards to bitcoin, even though there are some persuasive aspects in regards to the Lindy effect being ongoingly relevant to bitcoin, including in terms of considering bitcoin's ongoingly growing network effects - within the framework
outlined by Trace Mayer.
In view, what depreciates is the value of fait relative to Bitcoin not our Bitcoin in holdings,
Sure. That is one aspect contributing to bitcoin's relative price appreciation, but surely many of us likely realize that bitcoin's relative price appreciation is not ONLY related to dollar (fiat) debasement, but also has a decent amount of appreciation that largely relates to the ongoing growth in network effects that include considerations that bitcoin remains quite greatly in its early stages of adoption, so that even if their might be a small number of players who are trying to take advantage to front-run other parts of the population, even the ongoing attempts at front-running are still likely not pushing BTC prices up as much as their fair market value, so there remains ongoing justifiable reasons for normies to either get into bitcoin or to continue to accumulate as much bitcoin as they can, even if they are relatively poor and do not have a whole hell of a lot of discretionary income.. yet at the same time, they can ONLY invest as much as their discretionary income allows, otherwise they may well end up getting reckt due to their own lack of good financial management (and/or keeping their level of aggressiveness in regards to bitcoin within boundaries that are tailored to their own financial circumstances).
it up to you to use or leave it. If we really view Bitcoin as an asset and not just a mere coin we would be in alignment of any outcome.
Sure no problem with that idea.. There are needs to balance in terms of any of us figuring out how much we are able to put into bitcoin without over doing it.. but still recognizing that it is better to get off of zero, even if we might have relatively low levels of income (referring to discretionary income).
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sometimes in our Bid to make projections on what the fate of Bitcoin will be in years to come, we tend to be overly ambitious with our numbers and sometimes make statement that seems we're exaggerating too much. talking about 1000× is even too extreme to start talking about at this moment
I believe that it is not too extreme to talk about 1,000x to 10,000x, as long as it is put within a largely proper framework and context, including that folks do not need to agree with the framework and context, but to me it seems more than reasonable to be talking about those kinds of possible numbers - and surely I think that I already put the matter in a reasonably fair context, including various previous suggestions that we might not even get $100k or any new ATH in this cycle..
If we neither understand the upside potential or attempt to present a variety of scenarios that might even conflict (in some ways) with each other, then we are engaged in a kind of sugar coating - including that there exist both the guys that proclaim that $100k is difficult to achieve in this calendar year, when it is possible we could get $100k within the next day or so, or at the same time, $100k might not end up coming either in 2024 or 2025.. and then at the same time, there are some guys proclaiming proclaiming that $150k would be bullish as fuck to reach either in 2024 or 2025, when in fact that is only about 1.2x higher than our 2021 top (of $69k).. or we can also call it 2.2x the price of the 2021 top.
So yeah none of those upside scenarios are guaranteed, and we can also ignore the various new BIG players coming into the scene, including the opening up of BTC exposure avenues that previously had not been available, and we can act like it is difficult for BTC prices to go up because fucktwats financial institutions including government entities and including status quo rich are afraid of the control they are likely losing in regards to bitcoins continued ongoing growth and the power of self-custody and privacy that they are likely going to continue to battle... so yeah we can have BTC price suppression efforts that are happening at the same time that new BTC buyers are coming into the space and a decent number of them failing/refusing (and maybe even afraid) to learn about and employ self-custody of some portion of their BTC exposure (stash). Many of us realize that the BTC held through third-parties is likely to have way less value if there were to be success to wipe out self-custody... and sure, maybe (perhaps likely) that some of the BIG players getting into bitcoin are joining in goals to actually transform bitcoin into a controllable kind of an asset - which still could result in short-term profits while in some ways they might be working towards debilitating the golden goose with a speculation that they know how to debilitate the golden goose while not damaging its ability to lay golden eggs.
and although those kind of figures can possibly play out in the future, we've got to be realistic enough to make our speculations based on the current reality and talking about anything that's at the range of $500k within this circle might appear a bit unrealistic.
Surely nothing is guaranteed, so talking about a variety of possibilities should not cause them to be considered as guaranteed, so anyone dumb and gullible enough to fail/refuse to think for themselves or to be responsible for their own allocations does not need to be protected by down playing in the other direction.. so even this cycle we could have some thing in the ballpark of $2.5 million plus to be possible prior to the end of the cycle whether that is in 2025 or if it were to drag out longer, but the fact that the odds for $2.5 million plus to be perhaps in the ballpark of less than 0.5% possible does not mean that it should not be mentioned within a proper kind of framework.. including acknowledging that the higher we go up the attempts to predict a top for this cycle, the lower the odds become of that scenario playing out.. so maybe we could say the odds are greater than 50% for $100k to play out, but if we talk about the range of $120k to $180k, we might be getting into the 30% odds, even though we could simultaneously proclaim that the odds of $120k to $180k playing out are amongst the highest of the possible scenarios.. even though it is less than 50% odds.. including that it might be considered the base case scenario. but still end up not playing out.
On December 16, 2021, I engaged in some variation of outlining odds for various upside scenarios including price and timeline in December 2021.. yet of course, the BTC price went down from the time of my outlining it.. even though I have absolutely no shame in terms of none of the upside scenarios playing out, and I don't even consider myself to have had been wrong in the way that I assigned those matters at the time that I did it.
And yeah, we should not become over-reliant on scenarios, even if we might consider some of them to be our base case scenario.. and even if some folks might not be able to understand the difference between having a base case scenario and believing that a base case scenario has really high odds, even though it need not have very high odds.
Regarding this particular cycle, even if you take $25k as our starting point, 10x would be $250k and 100x would be $2.5 million, and surely $250k seems more in grasp, even though $2.5 million would not be out of the question, I would think it to be more reasonable as a consideration that is further down the road, and maybe as far as 3-5 cycles out there, and it could take even longer, yet it is difficult to know in advance and including some of the back and forth in regards to BTC prices, that surely could end up dampening some of what we might consider as bitcoin's historical exponential nature.
for me, while I know that if bitcoin crosses $200k before the end of this circle that it will encourage me greatly to be more serious with my DCA, I'm not really a big fan of being too extreme in terms of being over positive of Bitcoin shooting too high to the moon. I feel that apart from Bitcoin value going too high, there are some indices and some level of adoption that we need to see that will guarantee that bitcoin will shoot up high to the moon in the future rather than just speculating on the price without looking at those key indices that plays out the role of causing Bitcoin price to increase. And surely, even if at the end of the year we see Bitcoin getting to $150k while it level of adoption globally grows in an exponential manner, it's a clear indication that we will see those close range of 100x and above kind of figures in the next circle or so.
In other words, it should be able to hold several possibilities in mind at the same time, while realizing that surprises can happen to the upside and to the downside, so we need to be careful in regards to how we might choose to allocate to protect ourselves while at the same time maintaining the potential for growth.. which surely is one of the dynamics of investing into an asset (such as bitcoin) that both retains an asymmetric bet to the upside, but the fact that it is asymmetric also means that it is not guaranteed.
yeah, this mentality is what I've always held on to and it is that, I'm bullish about Bitcoin but I'm not ignorant that event can play out in a negative sense which might affect the bitcoin ecosystem in a negative sense so I just try to create a neutral ground were I don't become too overambitious and invest recklessly thereby pressurizing myself to wanting to see a dramatic bull upto the extent I have anticipated before investing and so I invest with the mindset that I'm investing for the long term and shouldn't get carried away in case a downtime happens along my investment journey.
All that is fair. You can prepare for both upside and downside scenarios, including assigning 0.5% odds of BTC prices to $2.5 million or higher by the end of 2025/2026 without having your own BTC holdings are strategy to be more greatly exposed than having a consideration of such low odd things that could end up playing out, even if they have low odds.. and the same goes for various extremes on the downside that our psychology and portfolio holdings should attempt to be sufficiently/adequately prepared.
Basically this section of the forum is about speculation of the price of Bitcoin that is why it looks like a lot of users are exaggerating about it's price but even though our speculations may not be accurate but it helps to boost our confidence morale to be hopeful that the price of Bitcoin reach the speculated ATH of $100 and all this speculation we do here works some times. Okay just take a look at the price of Bitcoin now and some days back that the price was dipping so Bitcoin is a volatile asset which the price tends t go forward and backwards and it is what keeps the market balanced so speculation continues.
I would not exaggerate to speculate on the value of BTC as touching $100k is reasonable and that too this year. May not happen again. You may have noticed that none of us are saying that BTC will be worth $100k. We only estimate the probability through this thread. We make assumptions from our place of freedom and basically from a place of logic.You will also see that when Bitcoin started its journey in the market - in 2013 it was worth so little. In 2015-2016, the value of 1 BTC was highest only $1000 and in 2024 it was ATH $73,750.00. If you analyze the data I have provided you, make an estimate of the value of BTC by 2025? So the speculation we are making about the value of BTC in this thread is not unreasonable at all.
Apart from the fact that Bitcoin is meant to reach a new ATH after every circle
I might be quibbling over your word choice, but it does not even seem correct that you are proclaiming that BTC is meant to make a new ATH every cycle... Even though you might not mean to say it, but you are implying some kind of a guarantee that the BTC price is reach a new ATH every cycle..
Maybe it is not even good to say that at all?
It might be better to say that adoption is ongoingly increasing and also the new issuance of supply is getting cut in half every 4 years, so in the end there are a lot of ongoingly upwards price pressures on BTC. but it still does not mean that it is going to reach a new ATH every cycle, since it well could be the case that the previous cycle had already reached a price that ended up being higher than what it should have had gotten to.. so we cannot merely use the high price of the previous cycle to suggest what might be a fair price for this particular cycle or for the upcoming cycle.
do you know that Bitcoin price can stay for a very long time before reaching an all time high again due to the fact that it has already gotten an ATH before the halving so all we are doing is speculations and this speculations depends on the effect the market will create so if there is no much investors buying Bitcoin you can't expect the price to skyrocket.
Also, here, I would be careful in terms of narrowing down too many explanations, because it may well be a BIG SO WHAT? in regards to the BTC price having had hit a new ATH prior to our last halvening... It seems there can be various explanations in regards to why that ended up happening, which surely part of the anticipation (and actual) activation of the spot BTC ETFs in the USA had ended up putting a lot of upwards price pressures on BTC, and those kinds of UPwards price pressures continue, in spite of various kinds of forces that likely take away from such ongoing UPwards price pressures, that even seem to include some ongoing hostilities and battles in regards to bitcoin (and also shitcoins, too).
In the whole scheme of things, we surely could lose some confidence in regards to BTC's short-to-medium term price direction, and surely there are some folks who are selling BTC in these price territories, yet I still wonder where the various BTC spot ETF providers are going to continue to get their BTC that they need to back up their products, and sure there could be some shenanigans going on behind the scenes in regards to fractional reserve bitcoin, but that also could be very risky, even for BIG players who might have "wink and nod" approvals from governments who might want to continue to engage in various ongoing attacks against bitcoin... so even if there are ongoing upwards price pressures on bitcoin, we cannot even guarantee that it's price is going to go up from here, even while at the same time, it seems that the best way to prepare for the possibility of up is to ongoingly make sure that you have enough, just in case.. and maybe perhaps also making sure that you don't overdo your own betting in one direction.
