‎Who will win the 2026 Ballon D'or? 🏆⚽

[sergiorus]

I’m surprised no one is talking about the shift that has taken place over the last 24 hours - Mbappé has overtaken Yamal, and the current odds are as follows:

Kane      - 70%
Mbappe  - 18%
Yamal     - 11%

In a market that evaluates the likelihood of who will end up higher - Mbappe or Yamal, Mbappe has become the clear favorite - 67%
https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-2026-kylian-mbappe-or-lamine-yamal-to-finish-higher

Unexpected, right? Just a short while ago, Yamal was in the lead, but now he’s slipped back to third place. According to reports on Twitter citing insiders, the rankings are as follows: Kane, Mbappé, Yamal, Rodri, Messi. If it turns out to be exactly like that, the organizers of the award will need to seriously overhaul the mechanism for keeping things confidential until the official announcement of the results.

Someone in here wrote that rumours of Mbappe win started circulating (in Whatsapp groups or something, lmao).

That must have been what pumped his shares on Polymarket but it's so ridiculously fake, and the pump is with no volume too - just some people aping into illiquid books. I suppose the rumour was very localised too, maybe just in African communities or something.

Anyway, the Polymarket orderbook behavious has been indicating Kane's win for quite some time now.

[KTChampions]

I’m surprised no one is talking about the shift that has taken place over the last 24 hours - Mbappé has overtaken Yamal, and the current odds are as follows:

Kane      - 70%
Mbappe  - 18%
Yamal     - 11%

In a market that evaluates the likelihood of who will end up higher - Mbappe or Yamal, Mbappe has become the clear favorite - 67%
https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-2026-kylian-mbappe-or-lamine-yamal-to-finish-higher

Unexpected, right? Just a short while ago, Yamal was in the lead, but now he’s slipped back to third place. According to reports on Twitter citing insiders, the rankings are as follows: Kane, Mbappé, Yamal, Rodri, Messi. If it turns out to be exactly like that, the organizers of the award will need to seriously overhaul the mechanism for keeping things confidential until the official announcement of the results.

Someone in here wrote that rumours of Mbappe win started circulating (in Whatsapp groups or something, lmao).

That must have been what pumped his shares on Polymarket but it's so ridiculously fake, and the pump is with no volume too - just some people aping into illiquid books. I suppose the rumour was very localised too, maybe just in African communities or something.

Anyway, the Polymarket orderbook behavious has been indicating Kane's win for quite some time now.

I think the reason is that insiders know how certain journalists voted, so they have fairly accurate information that Mbappé is ahead of Yamal. But since they don't have full information (whether Mbappe is ahead of Kane), there is still some uncertainty in the market. I don't agree that this is a completely fake pump without volumes - liquidity amounts to tens and hundreds of thousands of dollars if you look at all the markets dedicated to this event. There is still enough money at stake here to make it worth placing bets even now.

[Adbitco]

Any day any time, I would pick Raphinha over Yamal so long as Raphinha is in a better form than him. It's just that Yamal has a better PR than Raphinha if not I see no reason why that guy has been sidelined over Yamal. It pains me so much that Raphinha was sidelined last season for the Balloon d'Or race and Yamal was picked instead. This goes to show that you can actually be the best but you're not recognised if you don't have the PR. I checked the Champions League team if the season for last season, i didn't even see Yamal there, I checked the just concluded WC list for players of the tournament, his still no where to be found. I wonder the criteria his going to win the WC with. The Balloon d'Or is an individual award spanning over your performance for the whole year which is the major criteria and Yamal isn't the best individual player for last season.

[suzanne5223]

I’m surprised no one is talking about the shift that has taken place over the last 24 hours - Mbappé has overtaken Yamal, and the current odds are as follows:

Kane      - 70%
Mbappe  - 18%
Yamal     - 11%

In a market that evaluates the likelihood of who will end up higher - Mbappe or Yamal, Mbappe has become the clear favorite - 67%
https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-2026-kylian-mbappe-or-lamine-yamal-to-finish-higher

Unexpected, right? Just a short while ago, Yamal was in the lead, but now he’s slipped back to third place. According to reports on Twitter citing insiders, the rankings are as follows: Kane, Mbappé, Yamal, Rodri, Messi. If it turns out to be exactly like that, the organizers of the award will need to seriously overhaul the mechanism for keeping things confidential until the official announcement of the results.

I don't check the latest update on the percentage but I am not surprised that Mbappe is taking the second spot, which is something I stated weeks ago: the people with the highest chance of winning this year's Ballon d'Or are Kane and Mbappe.
The chance of Yamal winning the Ballon d'Or next year may be different, but I don't see him winning it this year.