‎Who will win the 2026 Ballon D'or?

[MiF]

Both.

They never give it to players whose teams didn't win anything, no matter how good one's performance was.

However, the reward receiver must be one of those who played a significant part in the team's success.

They tend to be strikers but not necessarily so. As you may remember Virgil van Dijk was #2 in the voting just after Messi in 2019 for helping Liverpool winning the UCL and he's a central defender.

He definitely was the best central defender of the world in that season but he would have never been voted so high in it if Liverpool didn't win the UCL.

I understand that, but still the end of the day the individual performance should mean more than the team performance, I'm not saying to give it to a player whose team didn't win anything big but in a situation where two teams with candidates for the Ballon d'Or get to win good trophies the individual performance should be what decides who win the Ballon d'Or and right now Kane is the most likely to win it as far as I'm concerned.

that team trophies are important. But not be the sole reason. Two major trophies awarded, both candidates have made a good contribution. If individual performance is used, it should differentiate them. Consistency and big-game performances, goals and assists, and overall influence should be given a greater weight. Van Dijk's Champions League win last year was an example of just how much a win can help a player's cause, even for a defender. But Kane's output and effect so far is a solid case made for him. It's worth noting that it could be someone else for the rest of the season.

[New Judgement]

Goals isn't the only criteria for a player to win the Ballon d'or. Normally players like  Harry kane and Kylian are expected to score more goals than wingers or midfielders. If you Watch Barcelona last season, Lamine Yamal has the highest chance creation in his team and probably in La liga, because that's what his  role is as winger. Because of that he was able to win the best player of the season over Kylian Mbappe, even though mbappe scored more goals. In the Bundesliga too, the Player of the season was also given to Olise , even though Harry Kane scored over 40 goals. This is why I feel this Ballon d'or will be tight and it's between Lamine Yamal and Harry Kane. Another player that I believe would win it, is Rodri due to being the best player in the FIFA world cup tournament, but is still don't think that will increase his chances of winning, he didn't give the type of Performance Messi gave in 2022 WC and also 2026 WC. But everything is in the hands of the Journalists, they are the one who decides the Winner.

You made some valid points regarding who will lift the Ballon d’Or, some people think that the moment you have scored lots of goals in a season that automatically you will win the Ballon d’Or but that’s a big lie. Harry Kane couldn’t win the best player of the league he plays his club football last season, and that will be against him during the voting. This year Ballon d’Or winner will come from the nation that won the FIFA World Cup, and that will be between Rodri and Lamin Yamal.

If Spain didn’t have players in contention of the Ballon d’Or it would have been different. Erling Haaland lost the 2023 to Messi because of the World Cup consideration. Haaland had the best season of his career in the premier league, yet he lost it. So anyone counting on Harry Kane goals alone to get him the Ballon d’Or is making a mistake because it won’t happen. Lamin Yamal or Rodri will be the eventual winner.

[GbitG]

Goals isn't the only criteria for a player to win the Ballon d'or. Normally players like  Harry kane and Kylian are expected to score more goals than wingers or midfielders. If you Watch Barcelona last season, Lamine Yamal has the highest chance creation in his team and probably in La liga, because that's what his  role is as winger. Because of that he was able to win the best player of the season over Kylian Mbappe, even though mbappe scored more goals. In the Bundesliga too, the Player of the season was also given to Olise , even though Harry Kane scored over 40 goals. This is why I feel this Ballon d'or will be tight and it's between Lamine Yamal and Harry Kane. Another player that I believe would win it, is Rodri due to being the best player in the FIFA world cup tournament, but is still don't think that will increase his chances of winning, he didn't give the type of Performance Messi gave in 2022 WC and also 2026 WC. But everything is in the hands of the Journalists, they are the one who decides the Winner.

Exactly, goals number is not the only criteria for Balloon d'Or. For the rest of til now we never seen FIFA give a Balloon d'Or to those who just only scored more goals. Balloon d'Or have specific criteria like they scale through individuals performance (goal/assist/rating) and even team performance was also the part of this criteria. So in Kilyan Mbappe and Kane can't be fit in at this criteria.....

Besides that if talk about Rodri then probably he won a World Cup title as well as have good performance at tournament like he Golden ball too. But Messi was much more deservable than Rodri for Golden Ball because Messi performance was much better than him and every one agree with me. However after this I just feel that Lamin Jamal is much favorite candidate than Rodri because people only draged Rodri due to Golden ball and WC title but now it's cleared that Golden ball decision was unfair.

So Jamal will be teg man for Balloon d'Or

[danadc]

Besides that if talk about Rodri then probably he won a World Cup title as well as have good performance at tournament like he Golden ball too. But Messi was much more deservable than Rodri for Golden Ball because Messi performance was much better than him and every one agree with me. However after this I just feel that Lamin Jamal is much favorite candidate than Rodri because people only draged Rodri due to Golden ball and WC title but now it's cleared that Golden ball decision was unfair.

So Jamal will be teg man for Balloon d'Or

No one is taking away from Messi's merit, but seeing that Argentina didn't win the World Cup makes him much less likely to win this award. Besides, with all the controversy surrounding Argentina and the perceived favoritism, the last thing anyone wants is to create another controversy.

Rodri didn't do badly, nor did Lamine. The fact that they both won the World Cup should boost their chances of being chosen. Had Barcelona won the Champions League, it would undoubtedly have been Lamine's award.

[sergiorus]

Rodri didn't do badly, nor did Lamine. The fact that they both won the World Cup should boost their chances of being chosen.

One was given the Best Player of the World Cup award whilst the other probably wasn't even considered for it.

That's it, that's the difference.

Both didn't achieve anything in the UCL last season so if the choice comes down to these two players, the winner is very obvious, there's no point in even arguing about it.

[Webutxo]

You made some valid points regarding who will lift the Ballon d’Or, some people think that the moment you have scored lots of goals in a season that automatically you will win the Ballon d’Or but that’s a big lie. Harry Kane couldn’t win the best player of the league he plays his club football last season, and that will be against him during the voting. This year Ballon d’Or winner will come from the nation that won the FIFA World Cup, and that will be between Rodri and Lamin Yamal.

If Spain didn’t have players in contention of the Ballon d’Or it would have been different. Erling Haaland lost the 2023 to Messi because of the World Cup consideration. Haaland had the best season of his career in the premier league, yet he lost it. So anyone counting on Harry Kane goals alone to get him the Ballon d’Or is making a mistake because it won’t happen. Lamin Yamal or Rodri will be the eventual winner.

The way Balon D'or votes are done is in a way that they makes sure that all eligible voters cast their votes based on what they think it's worth it and according to the organizers, people that determine the votes don't know each other, this helps makes the voting system very solid and manipulated. We don't know the criteria that the voters are going to bring this time around but I can tell you that Rodri isn't going to win this Balon D'or, it's a shame to even include him.

The people that are going to win it are all there and it has nothing to do with the word cup. Yamal had just one goal, when Mbape won the world cup he didn't win the Balon D'or and he did better than what he did in this word club. My fingers are pointing between Mbape and Kane but most importantly, Kane might have that award before Mbape because of how consistent he has been from the days he has been with Tottenham, the guy remains the best.

[coinlary]

Yes, that's the most logical thing to do, and therefore a very accurate analysis. I also think they could give it to them, but in terms of performance, I think the best player in the World Cup was Rodri. Lamine is always in the spotlight, waiting for his best plays, but Rodri did a very good job.

He wasn't the best play at the world cup. The best player at the World Cup was Messi,  unless you hate Messi, you don't need to like him either. He lost the final but FIFA deliberately gave it to rodri to avoid another internet noise of FIFA help Messi to win this and that. Despite his contribution, he left with zero recognition because of his teammates behaviour at the World Cup.

Yes Rodri won the best player right there but alot needs to be considered that will favour Yamal at the end .  He won Zara Trophy, Best player in Laliga , Best player of the month in Laliga 4x . Super Copa del Espana winner , Laliga  winner. Created so much wasted chances by Barcelona strikers , he's supposed to have nothing less than 25 assist.

In short, I see Yamal having a fair advantage over rodri but nit Harry Kane .

[Joeboy]

Goals isn't the only criteria for a player to win the Ballon d'or. Normally players like  Harry kane and Kylian are expected to score more goals than wingers or midfielders. If you Watch Barcelona last season, Lamine Yamal has the highest chance creation in his team and probably in La liga, because that's what his  role is as winger. Because of that he was able to win the best player of the season over Kylian Mbappe, even though mbappe scored more goals. In the Bundesliga too, the Player of the season was also given to Olise , even though Harry Kane scored over 40 goals. This is why I feel this Ballon d'or will be tight and it's between Lamine Yamal and Harry Kane. Another player that I believe would win it, is Rodri due to being the best player in the FIFA world cup tournament, but is still don't think that will increase his chances of winning, he didn't give the type of Performance Messi gave in 2022 WC and also 2026 WC. But everything is in the hands of the Journalists, they are the one who decides the Winner.

You made some valid points regarding who will lift the Ballon d’Or, some people think that the moment you have scored lots of goals in a season that automatically you will win the Ballon d’Or but that’s a big lie. Harry Kane couldn’t win the best player of the league he plays his club football last season, and that will be against him during the voting. This year Ballon d’Or winner will come from the nation that won the FIFA World Cup, and that will be between Rodri and Lamin Yamal.

If Spain didn’t have players in contention of the Ballon d’Or it would have been different. Erling Haaland lost the 2023 to Messi because of the World Cup consideration. Haaland had the best season of his career in the premier league, yet he lost it. So anyone counting on Harry Kane goals alone to get him the Ballon d’Or is making a mistake because it won’t happen. Lamin Yamal or Rodri will be the eventual winner.

New Judgement you have actually said it all... The manner you approached this from showed you truly are updated and knowledgeable about how Ballon d'Or award is given... I went through various comments, some guys are making their preference based in the goals a players scored during the season.. I even saw an image posted whereby Mbappe was placed at the number one, and some comment actually supported that simply because he is a goal machine..  Even though it is always stated that individual performance is part of the criteria for choosing the winner, I don't think that that is all they look at...From what I have experience in the past, Ballon d'Or isn't given based on the numbers of goals you had, if that was the case Ronaldo would have probably won it ahead of Dembele coz Ronaldo as we all know it has is currently to highest goal scorer of all time... World Cup is like a major decider...Rodri is a top choice for me..

[JiiBs]

No one is taking away from Messi's merit, but seeing that Argentina didn't win the World Cup makes him much less likely to win this award. Besides, with all the controversy surrounding Argentina and the perceived favoritism, the last thing anyone wants is to create another controversy.

Are we still having to consider Messi in this! Man is a legend and belongs in the archives right now, the young lads have got to hold this at the moment. His performance in the World Cup was spectacular, no question but, the finals did cast a very large shadow on it all. Spain made the entire team look as though they didn’t come to compete or play the game. To give Messi for just participating in the World Cup would be a huge fraud.

Rodri didn't do badly, nor did Lamine. The fact that they both won the World Cup should boost their chances of being chosen. Had Barcelona won the Champions League, it would undoubtedly have been Lamine's award.

They are the better contestants, coupled with Mbappe and Dembele. I truly do feel post between these guys.

[Franctoshi]

You made some valid points regarding who will lift the Ballon d’Or, some people think that the moment you have scored lots of goals in a season that automatically you will win the Ballon d’Or but that’s a big lie. Harry Kane couldn’t win the best player of the league he plays his club football last season, and that will be against him during the voting. This year Ballon d’Or winner will come from the nation that won the FIFA World Cup, and that will be between Rodri and Lamin Yamal.

If Spain didn’t have players in contention of the Ballon d’Or it would have been different. Erling Haaland lost the 2023 to Messi because of the World Cup consideration. Haaland had the best season of his career in the premier league, yet he lost it. So anyone counting on Harry Kane goals alone to get him the Ballon d’Or is making a mistake because it won’t happen. Lamin Yamal or Rodri will be the eventual winner.

The way Balon D'or votes are done is in a way that they makes sure that all eligible voters cast their votes based on what they think it's worth it and according to the organizers, people that determine the votes don't know each other, this helps makes the voting system very solid and manipulated. We don't know the criteria that the voters are going to bring this time around but I can tell you that Rodri isn't going to win this Balon D'or, it's a shame to even include him.

The people that are going to win it are all there and it has nothing to do with the word cup. Yamal had just one goal, when Mbape won the world cup he didn't win the Balon D'or and he did better than what he did in this word club. My fingers are pointing between Mbape and Kane but most importantly, Kane might have that award before Mbape because of how consistent he has been from the days he has been with Tottenham, the guy remains the best.

What has Rodri done compared to the performance of Mbappe, Lamine Yamel, Erling Haaland, Harry Kane, and Ousmane Dembele last season that they even published his name, Rodri is definitely out of the picture and neither is he going to win it this time regardless of whatever criteria they will be using this time to choose the award winner.

[sergiorus]

You made some valid points regarding who will lift the Ballon d’Or, some people think that the moment you have scored lots of goals in a season that automatically you will win the Ballon d’Or but that’s a big lie. Harry Kane couldn’t win the best player of the league he plays his club football last season, and that will be against him during the voting. This year Ballon d’Or winner will come from the nation that won the FIFA World Cup, and that will be between Rodri and Lamin Yamal.

If Spain didn’t have players in contention of the Ballon d’Or it would have been different. Erling Haaland lost the 2023 to Messi because of the World Cup consideration. Haaland had the best season of his career in the premier league, yet he lost it. So anyone counting on Harry Kane goals alone to get him the Ballon d’Or is making a mistake because it won’t happen. Lamin Yamal or Rodri will be the eventual winner.

The way Balon D'or votes are done is in a way that they makes sure that all eligible voters cast their votes based on what they think it's worth it and according to the organizers, people that determine the votes don't know each other, this helps makes the voting system very solid and manipulated. We don't know the criteria that the voters are going to bring this time around but I can tell you that Rodri isn't going to win this Balon D'or, it's a shame to even include him.

The people that are going to win it are all there and it has nothing to do with the word cup. Yamal had just one goal, when Mbape won the world cup he didn't win the Balon D'or and he did better than what he did in this word club. My fingers are pointing between Mbape and Kane but most importantly, Kane might have that award before Mbape because of how consistent he has been from the days he has been with Tottenham, the guy remains the best.

What has Rodri done compared to the performance of Mbappe, Lamine Yamel, Erling Haaland, Harry Kane, and Ousmane Dembele last season that they even published his name, Rodri is definitely out of the picture and neither is he going to win it this time regardless of whatever criteria they will be using this time to choose the award winner.

What did Messi do to get Ballon d'Or in 2023, apart from doing exactly what Rodri did - winning the World Cup and becoming the best player of it?

Both had very underwhelming season at their clubs so if you say Rodri doesn't deserve it now at all you must admit Messi didn't deserve it at all in 2023 either.

[KTChampions]

What did Messi do to get Ballon d'Or in 2023, apart from doing exactly what Rodri did - winning the World Cup and becoming the best player of it?

Both had very underwhelming season at their clubs so if you say Rodri doesn't deserve it now at all you must admit Messi didn't deserve it at all in 2023 either.

What a subtle irony 



Messi is the worst example for any controversial issue because he is controversial in himself.
As for Rodri, Yamal, for example, also won the World Cup. How are you going to divide their contributions, given that they played in different positions? There were other players, too. If we're talking purely individual achievements, then other players are also brought into the discussion (Mbappé with his incredible three golden boots). Ultimately, everything will be decided by the subjective preferences of the voters, this isn't a math problem where there's one correct answer and everyone must find it.

[GxSTxV]

Messi is the worst example for any controversial issue because he is controversial in himself.
As for Rodri, Yamal, for example, also won the World Cup. How are you going to divide their contributions, given that they played in different positions? There were other players, too. If we're talking purely individual achievements, then other players are also brought into the discussion (Mbappé with his incredible three golden boots). Ultimately, everything will be decided by the subjective preferences of the voters, this isn't a math problem where there's one correct answer and everyone must find it.

I agree there will always be some subjectivity when it comes to voting for the best but I think the Ballon dOr has become harder to predict compared to the Messi and Ronaldo era. Lately, we have more players putting up very similar numbers and statistics so the competition is much closer. That also why I don’t think we should judge a player mainly based on one competition performance. Winning the World Cup with your team or another major tournament is obviously a huge achievement, but we shouldn’t ignore players who performed at a high level individually throughout the entire season, including their league and other competitions. A real top player should be able to perform consistently in all different competitions and situations.

I think Messi can always be a good example of why this discussion can become controversial. He was an incredible player and deserved many of his achievements, but I always felt that he had advantage in the voting that other players didn’t have. There were times where it felt like people(FIFA) were still giving him credit even when his individual performance on the pitch wasn’t that impressive.

So for me, the fairest way is to look at the whole season, mainly individual performance, consistency and then we come to trophies with importance to the team, and performances in different competitions rather than letting one tournament decide everything.

[sergiorus]

As for Rodri, Yamal, for example, also won the World Cup. How are you going to divide their contributions, given that they played in different positions?

Rodri was given the Best Player of the World Cup Award. Yamal wasn't. Please pay more attention to the discussion, it's been mentioned a number of times (including in the picture of the post you quoted).

Messi is the worst example for any controversial issue because he is controversial in himself.

I'm willing to admit that Rodri doesn't deserve the Ballon d'Or at all now if the person I'm arguing with admits that Messi didn't deserve it at all in 2023 (due to some corrupt connections or whatever, plus as a result Haalland was robbed so he should be at least verbally honoured too).

That is, because that would fundamentally change the methodology by which we assess what achievements make one deserve it. From my experience most people aren't willing to do that, especially, of course, Messi fanboys.

[KTChampions]

As for Rodri, Yamal, for example, also won the World Cup. How are you going to divide their contributions, given that they played in different positions?

Rodri was given the Best Player of the World Cup Award. Yamal wasn't. Please pay more attention to the discussion, it's been mentioned a number of times (including in the picture of the post you quoted).
~

Wake up, you who's paying attention to discussion. All the awards "earned" off the field are the subjective opinions of a small group of people.No one cares that you think there should be some kind of consistency in opinions/decisions based on them, lol, where did you come up with that? I'm writing about facts, you can write about opinions as much as you want, they'll still remain random. If Yamal or Kubarasi had received the award instead of Rodri, would you have thought that the second award (subjective) should also have been given to him based on the first award (also subjective)?

[Pablo-wood]

Besides that if talk about Rodri then probably he won a World Cup title as well as have good performance at tournament like he v too. But Messi was much more deservable than Rodri for Golden Ball because Messi performance was much better than him and every one agree with me. However after this I just feel that Lamin Jamal is much favorite candidate than Rodri because people only draged Rodri due to Golden ball and WC title but now it's cleared that Golden ball decision was unfair.

So Jamal will be teg man for Balloon d'Or

No one is taking away from Messi's merit, but seeing that Argentina didn't win the World Cup makes him much less likely to win this award. Besides, with all the controversy surrounding Argentina and the perceived favoritism, the last thing anyone wants is to create another controversy.

Rodri didn't do badly, nor did Lamine. The fact that they both won the World Cup should boost their chances of being chosen. Had Barcelona won the Champions League, it would undoubtedly have been Lamine's award.

Lamine Yamal played 8 matches for Spain in the world cup and scored only 1 goal in total with no assist to give him edge for a likely consideration for the Ballon D'or. Rodri's case is even worst he didn't score he didn't create assist. I don't see the both as favorite for the title in my own judgement. Rodri's Golden ball was a result of his tactical control and his passing accuracy but I don't see this as yastic to collecting the Ballon D'or. The World Cup is only one criteria for winning this title but none of them had their names recorded in the teams effort towards their victory.

[sergiorus]

If Yamal or Kubarasi had received the award instead of Rodri, would you have thought that the second award (subjective) should also have been given to him based on the first award (also subjective)?

Short answer: yes, that's how I see it work.

Long answer: yes, it falls into my methodology of predicting who will win the Ballon d'Or that is based on the patterns of the past. After all, we are trying to predict it here, in order to increase our chances to successfully gamble on it.

All these decisions made my these small private clubs (and we aren't in any of them) are clearly interconnected.

So based on those patterns, I think Rodri is going to win, even though the bookies don't price that in as a very likely outcome. Plus now he plays for Barcelona, and Barcelona's players have always been more favoured.

[KTChampions]

If Yamal or Kubarasi had received the award instead of Rodri, would you have thought that the second award (subjective) should also have been given to him based on the first award (also subjective)?

Short answer: yes, that's how I see it work.

Long answer: yes, it falls into my methodology of predicting who will win the Ballon d'Or that is based on the patterns of the past. After all, we are trying to predict it here, in order to increase our chances to successfully gamble on it.

All these decisions made my these small private clubs (and we aren't in any of them) are clearly interconnected.

So based on those patterns, I think Rodri is going to win, even though the bookies don't price that in as a very likely outcome. Plus now he plays for Barcelona, and Barcelona's players have always been more favoured.

Firstly, the fact that Rodri joined Barcelona will most likely lower his chances because this will be an additional argument in favor of those who sympathize with Barcelona diluting their votes between him and Yamal.
Secondly, okay, so you seriously think Rodri will win and are betting on him now? After all, the odds are incredibly good - around 10x. If you trust your analysis, there is very good value here.
For example, I made several bets on who would win the Ballon d'Or (Kane yes, Yamal no) - you can see them here.

[sergiorus]

If Yamal or Kubarasi had received the award instead of Rodri, would you have thought that the second award (subjective) should also have been given to him based on the first award (also subjective)?

Short answer: yes, that's how I see it work.

Long answer: yes, it falls into my methodology of predicting who will win the Ballon d'Or that is based on the patterns of the past. After all, we are trying to predict it here, in order to increase our chances to successfully gamble on it.

All these decisions made my these small private clubs (and we aren't in any of them) are clearly interconnected.

So based on those patterns, I think Rodri is going to win, even though the bookies don't price that in as a very likely outcome. Plus now he plays for Barcelona, and Barcelona's players have always been more favoured.

Firstly, the fact that Rodri joined Barcelona will most likely lower his chances because this will be an additional argument in favor of those who sympathize with Barcelona diluting their votes between him and Yamal.
Secondly, okay, so you seriously think Rodri will win and are betting on him now? After all, the odds are incredibly good - around 10x. If you trust your analysis, there is very good value here.
For example, I made several bets on who would win the Ballon d'Or (Kane yes, Yamal no) - you can see them here.

Yeah, the odds for Rodri are very juicy right now but that kinda doesn't make sense lol. That's some weird mispricing and I don't see the reason behind it..

Betting on Kane at these odds isn't a great deal too, the risk reward ratio is just awful.

As per the journalists that sympathise Barcelona - that's a good point. The votes will sure split but I, after all, expect them to mainly follow the 2023 fallacy of voting for the WC's Best Player once again.

Also the national team managers get to vote too: 11 of them are English, 11 of them are Spanish. Stiff competition, but as I said the odds should reflect that. At the current odds having a small position on Rodri is a no-brainer to me.

[alastantiger]

What has Rodri done compared to the performance of Mbappe, Lamine Yamel, Erling Haaland, Harry Kane, and Ousmane Dembele last season that they even published his name, Rodri is definitely out of the picture and neither is he going to win it this time regardless of whatever criteria they will be using this time to choose the award winner.

Rodri was very good in the world cup and his performance was what won him the player of the tournament an, if we are using the world cup to decide the winner of the balloon d'or then he stands a better chance to win it for Spain that were the champion as no other player is qualified to win it in that squad. Mbappe is the next player based on his performance in the world cup  if we are being honest but nobody' knows how the award will be decided so let us wait and watch who finally wins it. It does not matter who wins it this year's own as others will think he did not deserve it as no single player was exceptional this season, only Mbappe came close but  he did not win any trophies.