Otoh (OP)
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January 11, 2012, 08:38:30 PM |
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& that'd make the prize total up to $2,000 or $4,000 if Zhou were to play & pick both winning dates, yikes! *quickly buys 50 more BTC @ < $7*
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There are several different types of Bitcoin clients. The most secure are full nodes like Bitcoin Core, which will follow the rules of the network no matter what miners do. Even if every miner decided to create 1000 bitcoins per block, full nodes would stick to the rules and reject those blocks.
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Mageant
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January 11, 2012, 08:46:03 PM |
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& that'd make the prize total up to $2,000 or $4,000 if Zhou were to play & pick both winning dates, yikes! *quickly buys 50 more BTC @ < $7*
If that prediction (2013.10.28) were to come true then we are way ahead of schedule with a current price of $7. |
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Mageant
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January 11, 2012, 08:59:01 PM
Last edit: January 11, 2012, 09:10:55 PM by Mageant |
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Here is an interesting calculation.
If we have a $80 target date on 2013.10.28 then we get the following intermediate prices assuming an even exponential rise starting on 2011.01.01 at $0.30:
2012.01.01: $2.17
2012.07.01: $5.87
2013.01.01: $15.80
Surprisingly, the price of $2.17 is very close to the absolute low that was reached in November 2011. So this projection just missed that target price by a few weeks.
So the current price of $6-$7 is either too optimistic or the estimate of $80 on 2013.10.28 is not optimistic enough. Another possibility is though that it will rise more slowly once it reaches higher prices.
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notme
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January 11, 2012, 09:12:41 PM |
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Here is an interesting calculation.
If we have a $80 target date on 2013.10.28 then we get the following intermediate prices assuming an even exponential rise starting on 2011.01.01 at $0.30:
2012.01.01: $2.17
2012.07.01: $5.87
2013.01.01: $15.80
Surprisingly, the price of $2.17 is very close to the absolute low that was reached in November 2011. So this projection just missed that target price by a few weeks.
So the current price of $6-$7 is either too optimistic or the estimate of $80 on 2013.10.28 is not optimistic enough. Another possibility is though that it will rise more slowly once it reaches higher prices.
I don't trust vertical asymptotes... Horizontal is where it's at. |
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Mageant
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January 11, 2012, 09:48:18 PM |
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Here is another calculation:
From $0.30 to $80 is a 266x increase
2011: $0.30 - $5 was already a 16x increase, that means about 16x more to go
projection:
2012: $5 - $40 with a 8x increase (which would still put us about a month too early with the current price, but that's close enough).
2013: $40 - $80 with a 2x increase
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cjgames.com
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finway
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January 12, 2012, 04:54:31 AM |
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1Billion: 1st June 2012
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Clark
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January 12, 2012, 06:18:52 AM |
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$1B: 22nd May 2013
1g Au: 10th June 2013
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westkybitcoins
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January 12, 2012, 06:53:21 AM |
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$1B: 2012-12-01
1au: never - the $ will have been rendered worthless before btc matches an ounce of gold
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Bitcoin is the ultimate freedom test. It tells you who is giving lip service and who genuinely believes in it.
... ... In the future, books that summarize the history of money will have a line that says, “and then came bitcoin.” It is the economic singularity. And we are living in it now. - Ryan Dickherber... ... ATTENTION BFL MINING NEWBS: Just got your Jalapenos in? Wondering how to get the most value for the least hassle? Give BitMinter a try! It's a smaller pool with a fair & low-fee payment method, lots of statistical feedback, and it's easier than EasyMiner! (Yes, we want your hashing power, but seriously, it IS the easiest pool to use! Sign up in seconds to try it!)... ... The idea that deflation causes hoarding (to any problematic degree) is a lie used to justify theft of value from your savings.
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lord bookington
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January 12, 2012, 10:21:59 AM |
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1B 2012 05 10
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Otoh (OP)
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January 12, 2012, 10:37:25 AM
Last edit: January 31, 2012, 09:11:40 PM by Otoh |
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 Summary to date  $1B2012 05 01 miscreanity 2012 05 10 lord bookington 2012 05 16 cloon 2012 06 01 finway 2012 06 27 Goat 2012 07 04 kjlimo 2012 07 07 foggyb 2012 10 02 niko 2012 10 30 sadpandatech 2012 11 04 the joint 2012 12 01 westkybitcoins 2012 12 07 notme 2013 01 01 farfiman 2013 01 07 chsados 2013 02 13 Mageant 2013 03 23 Scott J 2013 05 05 BTCurious 2013 05 08 kilmyos 2013 05 22 Clark 2013 07 14 Koekiemonster 2013 09 07 sgbett 2013 09 12 istar 2013 12 06 waspoza 2014 01 04 indeededausername 2014 06 23 Kluge 2015 04 01 Revalin 2016 07 08 proudhon 2017 09 11 Wekkel 2017 12 12 trogdorjw73 never - Hawkix 1g Au2012 04 01 miscreanity 2012 05 03 Goat 2012 05 13 Niko 2012 06 07 foggyb 2012 06 12 cloon 2012 08 01 oOoOo 2012 08 03 sadpandatech 2012 08 10 kjlimo 2012 09 03 the joint 2012 12 07 notme 2012 12 21 Mageant 2013 01 03 Koekiemonster 2013 01 07 chsados 2013 03 23 Scott J 2013 04 13 proudhon 2013 06 10 Clark 2013 12 06 waspoza 2014 01 01 farfiman 2014 03 04 Wekkel 2014 04 01 Revalin 2014 05 03 indeededausername 2014 05 05 BTCurious 2016 09 07 sgbett 2018 06 27 trogdorjw73 never - westkybitcoins pse to let me know if I've made any typos or missed anyone out, mt
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Otoh (OP)
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January 31, 2012, 01:13:33 PM
Last edit: January 31, 2012, 01:24:25 PM by Otoh |
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OK last chance for any more votes or date picking here, I shall close this off tomorrow with a final summary (or an edit of the summary above) of the dates that have been chosen & leave the thread open, but any further dates picked after tomorrow will not be eligible for the prizes ~ good luck  |
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notme
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January 31, 2012, 01:17:19 PM |
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I would like to guess 2012-12-07 for both contests.
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Kluge
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January 31, 2012, 01:23:47 PM |
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Lending is the ultimate long position, but $1b is insane. Governments would start getting really aggressive at that point.
.... But there's a 5BTC prize, and "never" can never be paid out, so I'll predict $1b BTC total value on 23rd June, 2014.
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anu
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January 31, 2012, 01:33:40 PM |
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I also don't think it'll ever reach $1B, but for the hellofit:
I have some difficulty understanding your stance. You seem to think that Bitcoin will lose value until ppl lose interest, leave and delete their wothless wallets to save disk space. While this is a possibility, the believe in it seems inconsistent to spending a lot of time with Bitcoin as you apparently do. Unless you don't value your time either. Don't you consider all the time you invested in Bitcoin a loss? All that knowledge which will be worthless if your hopes come true? Man, you need to get a life. |
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chsados
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January 31, 2012, 01:53:42 PM
Last edit: January 31, 2012, 02:30:10 PM by chsados |
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I would like to guess 2013-01-07 for both contests.
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westkybitcoins
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January 31, 2012, 03:47:20 PM |
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Summary to date 1g Au2012 04 01 miscreanity 2012 05 03 Goat 2012 05 13 Niko 2012 06 12 cloon 2012 08 01 oOoOo 2012 08 03 sadpandatech 2012 08 10 kjlimo 2012 09 03 the joint 2012 12 01 westkybitcoins2012 12 07 notme 2012 12 21 Mageant 2013 01 03 Koekiemonster 2013 03 23 Scott J 2013 04 13 proudhon 2013 06 10 Clark 2014 01 01 farfiman 2014 03 04 Wekkel 2014 04 01 Revalin 2014 05 03 indeededausername 2014 05 05 BTCurious 2016 09 07 sgbett 2018 06 27 trogdorjw73 never - westkybitcoins pse to let me know if I've made any typos or missed anyone out, mt Just a little fix for ya. |
Bitcoin is the ultimate freedom test. It tells you who is giving lip service and who genuinely believes in it.
... ... In the future, books that summarize the history of money will have a line that says, “and then came bitcoin.” It is the economic singularity. And we are living in it now. - Ryan Dickherber... ... ATTENTION BFL MINING NEWBS: Just got your Jalapenos in? Wondering how to get the most value for the least hassle? Give BitMinter a try! It's a smaller pool with a fair & low-fee payment method, lots of statistical feedback, and it's easier than EasyMiner! (Yes, we want your hashing power, but seriously, it IS the easiest pool to use! Sign up in seconds to try it!)... ... The idea that deflation causes hoarding (to any problematic degree) is a lie used to justify theft of value from your savings.
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anu
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January 31, 2012, 03:56:44 PM |
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Lending is the ultimate long position, but $1b is insane. Governments would start getting really aggressive at that point.
Insane? It's required! Now you cannot even pay a car with Bitcoin without moving the market. |
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foggyb
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January 31, 2012, 04:02:05 PM |
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$1B: 2012 07 07
1g Au: 2012 06 07
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waspoza
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January 31, 2012, 04:21:12 PM |
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Im picking 2015.04.01 (april 1st) for both.
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Kluge
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January 31, 2012, 04:35:47 PM |
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Lending is the ultimate long position, but $1b is insane. Governments would start getting really aggressive at that point.
Insane? It's required! Now you cannot even pay a car with Bitcoin without moving the market. AFAIK, nobody buys cars with Bitcoin (at least not cars worth enough to move the market). Bitcoins are great for novelties, drugs, and discounted gift cards, but video cards are generally the most expensive items users typically buy (pulling that statistic out of my ass, but I don't think many would argue). The Bitcoin exchange rate is extremely volatile, and I don't imagine there are many people willing invest a significant sum of money in a currency which fluctuates 10% in price day-to-day (it's certainly kept me up at night). I don't see any signs of that volatility going away, and while it remains, nobody's going to post in the lending subforum requesting an $80k home mortgage. |
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