Poll :: When will Bitcoin reach $1 Billion total value

[Otoh]

With a max of 21 million Bitcoins having been released in 2033 then for a $1 B ($1,000,000,000) valuation we get a price of $47.62 per Btc, or atm with over 8 million Btc in the wild we would need a price of approx $125 per Btc, so the question is on what date will Bitcoin become a $1 B entity - closest date wins a 5 Btc prize ~ coins held here: 1BiLLioN

Please express date as YYYY MM DD or as 29th Feb 2012 say, thread will be locked on the 31st Jan 2012 - please don't edit your dates except for typos/clarity, my rules & common sense, i.e. if someone puts the same date as one already chosen the first person wins it & ambiguous dates will be void, 1 entry per pre-existing forum ID

Plus a second competition with the same rules & also for a 5 Btc prize for when the value of a single Bitcoin will equal 1 gram of gold, as shown here in $s, i.e. atm $51.25 ~ coins held here: 1GramAu1

http://goldprice.org/gold-price-per-kilo.html

If 1 person wins both then I shall double their prize to 20 Btc total ~ the extra coins held here: 1x2wins

For those who say never, then please state that & your date shall then be for when a fatal blow hits Bitcoin or failing that if the price falls below $0.10 (prize as above & only payable in zombie Btc)


Edit to add a copy of the summary post: #88

Here's the final summary of the dates chosen, voting & prize entries are now closed, with the time frame of the 4 years up to the end of 2017 being the most popular years for issued Bitcoins to reach $1 B in the poll votes, but 2012 taking it in the date choice & the same for 1 BTC to gain parity with 1 gm Au.

Here also a rounded up table of the approx BTC price for achieving $1 B in the years of them being mined & the $ value of each 5 BTC prize offered - though I chose dates for 2015 myself the sooner I get to give those prizes away the happier I'll be  

Year  1BTC   5BTC    5BTC     20BTC (the doubled prize for winning both dates)

2012   $110   $550     $550      $2,200
2013   $95     $475     $475      $1,900    <--- WTG BTC & Scott J ~ March 2013 for the double prize!  
2014   $80     $400     $400      $1,600
2015   $75     $375     $375      $1,500
2016   $65     $325     $325      $1,300
2018   $60     $300     $300      $1,200
2020   $55     $275     $275      $1,100
2023   $50     $250     $250      $1,000
2033   $48     $238     $238      $952

    Final Summary  

$1B

2012 05 01 miscreanity
2012 05 10 lord bookington
2012 05 16 cloon
2012 06 01 finway
2012 06 27 Goat
2012 07 04 kjlimo
2012 07 07 foggyb
2012 10 02 niko
2012 10 30 sadpandatech
2012 11 04 the joint
2012 12 01 westkybitcoins
2012 12 07 notme

2013 01 01 farfiman
2013 01 07 chsados
2013 02 13 Mageant
2013 03 23 Scott J    <--- looks like a winner, this now confirmed & prize sent  
2013 05 05 BTCurious
2013 05 08 kilmyos
2013 05 22 Clark
2013 07 14 Koekiemonster
2013 09 07 sgbett
2013 09 12 istar
2013 12 06 waspoza

2014 01 04 indeededausername
2014 06 23 Kluge

2015 04 01 Revalin
2015 04 02 Otoh

2016 07 08 proudhon

2017 09 11 Wekkel
2017 12 12 trogdorjw73

Never - Hawkix

1g Au

2012 04 01 miscreanity
2012 05 03 Goat
2012 05 13 Niko
2012 06 07 foggyb
2012 06 12 cloon
2012 08 01 oOoOo
2012 08 03 sadpandatech
2012 08 10 kjlimo
2012 09 03 the joint
2012 12 07 notme
2012 12 21 Mageant

2013 01 03 Koekiemonster
2013 01 07 chsados
2013 03 23 Scott J    <--- looks like a winner, this now confirmed & prize sent  
2013 04 13 proudhon
2013 06 10 Clark
2013 12 06 waspoza

2014 01 01 farfiman
2014 03 04 Wekkel
2014 04 01 Revalin
2014 05 03 indeededausername
2014 05 05 BTCurious

2015 05 05 Otoh

2016 09 07 sgbett

2018 06 27 trogdorjw73

Never - westkybitcoins

Prizes:

1BiLLioN      Sent:  Tx

1GramAu1   Sent:  Tx

1x2wins      Sent:  Tx

[1715180751]

1715180751

[1715180751]

1715180751

[1715180751]

1715180751

[Revalin]

2015.04.01 - Market Cap == $1B
2014.04.01 - 1 BTC == 1g Au

I'm bearish and unconvinced that we WILL see $1B.  However, if Bitcoin hangs on through this year and we start seeing serious commerce, it could easily grow that far in a few years.

Edit: added gold.

[istar]

Not this year things take longer than expected. Unless in a bubble.

But we might get close in the next newyears bubble 2012-12-30.

50/50 in the autumn of next year.
Exact date 2013-09-12

[BTCurious]

1G$: 2013-5-5
1g Au: 2014-5-5

[ineededausername]

$1B: 4th Jan 2014
1g Au: 3rd May 2014

[sadpandatech]

$B - 30th Oct. 2012
$s - 3rd Aug. 2012
g= ~$62

If the Euro stays proped up, silver and gold low then it will be Jan/Feb 2013 for $B

[Qoheleth]

Just to be absolutely 100% sure: we're talking UTC dates, right?

[P4man]

You do realize you are offering around $2500 worth of prize money?   

[ineededausername]

You do realize you are offering around $2500 worth of prize money?   

Of course he does

[Hawkix]

I am rather pesimistic. Other people (government, corporations, top rich people) simply will not that ALLOW to happen. Even if the Bitcoin will tend to become very popular, there will be high tension to switch the fortune from current BTC holders to the others I named in previous sentence. Do you all think they will let you become rich? No way.

There will be tension to restart the chain. They will start mine its own. I would say, if the current Bitcoin will be successfull in this year, we may expect soon so called "Blockchain Wars". Of course, some will continue to use current blockchain, but its always the majority (even in the Bitcoin world), who rules.

Just my two BitCents, maybe worth a few dollars later.

[sgbett]

$1BN: 7th September 2013
Gold: 7th September 2016

My winnings go here: 1G4PGAL4i7cZSrUbm42AkScPLpSx84hV8c

[Otoh]

yep, UTC dates & if 2012 then it's up to $2500 in prizes np - the 20 Btc have been pre-bought (in Nov 2011)  
I'll send them to my sig later for safe keeping (once I've checked that I've got the private key to that safe still)

highest market cap so far the June 2011 irrational exuberance to about $33 for approx 7 million bits to give roughly $230,000,000

[trogdorjw73]

My spidey sense tells me never, but what the heck:

$1B: 12th December, 2017
1g Au: 27th June, 2018

[proudhon]

I also don't think it'll ever reach $1B, but for the hellofit:

$1B: 2016 - 07 - 08
1g Au: 2013 - 04 - 13

[Wekkel]

$1B 11 september 2017
Gold 4 march 2014

$0.10 never again

[Koekiemonster]

Gold 3rd january 2013
$1B 14th july 2013

[cypherdoc]

get ready for the next spike up...

[farfiman]

My spidey sense tells me never, but what the heck:

If it doesnt go above 1 billion then it would have failed and collapsed.
How much commerce in the whole world can be done with 1 Billion worth only?
Just Paypal commerce is around 100 Billion and the majority of that is just in the US and Europe.

I say :

1Billion $ =  1st of January 2013
Gold=    1st of January 2014

[Scott J]

$1 Billion  =  23rd March 2013
Gold=  23rd March 2013

[Otoh]

If it doesnt go above 1 billion then it would have failed and collapsed.
How much commerce in the whole world can be done with 1 Billion worth only?

I chose $1 B as a minimum critical mass otherwise we'll be looking at a niche curiosity but one that may well still have it's uses & longetitity